General Election Predictions

General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 44. Scotland - North East

1 May 2017 at 17:50

Scotland – North East

Seats: 6
Current Political Makeup: SNP 6
Predicted Political Makeup after June 8: SNP 5, Con 1

7. Banff & Buchan

2010 Result:
Conservative: 11841 (30.8%)
Labour: 5382 (14%)
Lib Dem: 4365 (11.3%)
SNP: 15868 (41.3%)
BNP: 1010 (2.6%)
MAJORITY: 4027 (10.5%)

2015 Result:
SNP Eilidh Whiteford 27,487 60.2 +18.9
Conservative Alex Johnstone 13,148 28.8 −2.0
Labour Sumon Hoque1 2,647 5.8 −8.2
Liberal Democrat David Evans 2,347 5.1 −6.2
Majority 14,339 31.4 +18.9
Turnout 45,629 66.5 +6.7

Sitting MP: Eilidh Whiteford (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold

8. Gordon

2010 Result:
Conservative: 9111 (18.7%)
Labour: 9811 (20.1%)
Lib Dem: 17575 (36%)
SNP: 10827 (22.2%)
BNP: 699 (1.4%)
Green: 752 (1.5%)
MAJORITY: 6748 (13.8%)

2015 Result:
SNP Alex Salmond10 27,717 47.7 +25.5
Liberal Democrat Christine Jardine 19,030 32.7 −3.3
Conservative Colin Clark 6,807 11.7 −7.0
Labour Braden Davy 3,441 5.9 −14.2
UKIP Emily Santos11 1,166 2.0 N/A
Majority 8,687 15.0
Turnout 58,161 73.3 +6.9

Sitting MP: Alex Salmond (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold

9. Aberdeen North

2010 Result:
Conservative: 4666 (12.4%)
Labour: 16746 (44.4%)
Lib Dem: 7001 (18.6%)
SNP: 8385 (22.2%)
BNP: 635 (1.7%)
Others: 268 (0.7%)
MAJORITY: 8361 (22.2%)

2015 Result:
SNP Kirsty Blackman 24,793 56.4 +34.2
Labour Richard Baker 11,397 25.9 −18.5
Conservative Sanjoy Sen 5,304 12.1 −0.3
Liberal Democrat Euan Davidson 2,050 4.7 −13.9
TUSC Tyrinne Rutherford 206 0.5 +0.5
National Front Christopher Willett 186 0.4 +0.4
Majority 13,396 30.5
Turnout 43,936 64.9 +6.7

Sitting MP: Kirsty Blackman (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold

10. Aberdeen South

2010 Result:
Conservative: 8914 (20.7%)
Labour: 15722 (36.5%)
Lib Dem: 12216 (28.4%)
SNP: 5102 (11.9%)
BNP: 529 (1.2%)
Green: 413 (1%)
Others: 138 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 3506 (8.1%)

2015 Result:
SNP Callum McCaig 20,221 41.6 +29.8
Labour Anne Begg 12,991 26.8 −9.8
Conservative Ross Thomson 11,087 22.8 +2.1
Liberal Democrat Denis Rixon 2,252 4.6 −23.7
Scottish Green Dan Yeats 964 2.0 +1.0
UKIP Sandra Skinner 897 1.8 N/A
Independent Christopher Gray 139 0.3 N/A
Majority 7,230 14.9
Turnout 48,551 71.3 +4.1

Sitting MP: Callum McCaig (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold

11. West Aberdeenshire & Kincardine

2010 Result:
Conservative: 13678 (30.3%)
Labour: 6159 (13.6%)
Lib Dem: 17362 (38.4%)
SNP: 7086 (15.7%)
BNP: 513 (1.1%)
UKIP: 397 (0.9%)
MAJORITY: 3684 (8.2%)

2015 Result:
SNP Stuart Blair Donaldson 22,949 41.6 +25.9
Conservative Alexander James Amherst Burnett 15,916 28.8 -1.4
Liberal Democrat Sir Robert Hill Smith 11,812 21.4 -17.0
Labour Barry Black 2,487 4.5 -9.1
UKIP David Michael Lansdell 1,006 1.8 +1.6
Scottish Green Richard Paul Openshaw 885 1.6 +1.6
Independent Graham Reid 141 0.3 +0.3
Majority 7,033 12.7
Turnout 55,196 75.2 +6.8

Sitting MP: Stuart Blair Donaldson (SNP)
Prediction: Conservative gain

A surprise gain for the SNP last time, this was in effect a three way marginal. It still could be, but it’s a moot point as to whether the Conservatives can really eat into the SNP vote here. But they did so in the 2016 Scottish Parliament election.

12. Angus

2010 Result:
Conservative: 11738 (30.9%)
Labour: 6535 (17.2%)
Lib Dem: 4090 (10.8%)
SNP: 15020 (39.6%)
UKIP: 577 (1.5%)
MAJORITY: 3282 (8.6%)

2015 Result:
SNP Mike Weir 24,130 54.2 +14.7
Conservative Derek Wann 12,900 29.0 −1.9
Labour Gerard McMahon 3,919 8.8 −8.4
UKIP Calum Walker 1,355 3.0 +1.5
Liberal Democrat Sanjay Samani 1,216 2.7 −8.0
Scottish Green David Mumford 965 2.2 N/A
Majority 11,230 25.2 +16.6
Turnout 44,485 67.6 +7.2

Sitting MP: Michael Weir (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold

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General Election Predictions

General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 43. Scotland - Central

1 May 2017 at 17:35

Scotland – Central

Seats: 5
Current Political Makeup: SNP 5
Predicted Political Makeup after June 8: SNP 5
Revised: Con 1, SNP 4

13. Dundee East

2010 Result:
Conservative: 6177 (15.2%)
Labour: 13529 (33.3%)
Lib Dem: 4285 (10.6%)
SNP: 15350 (37.8%)
Green: 542 (1.3%)
UKIP: 431 (1.1%)
Others: 254 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 1821 (4.5%)

2015 Result:
SNP Stewart Hosie 28,765 59.7 +21.9
Labour Lesley Brennan 9,603 19.9 −13.4
Conservative Bill Bowman 7,206 15.0 −0.3
Liberal Democrat Craig Duncan 1,387 2.9 −7.7
Scottish Green Helen Grayshan 895 1.9 +0.5
CISTA Lesley Parker-Hamilton 225 0.5 N/A
TUSC Carlo Morelli 104 0.2 N/A
Majority 19,162 39.8 +34.3
Turnout 48,185 71.0 +9.0

Sitting MP: Stewart Hosie (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold

14. Dundee West

2010 Result:
Conservative: 3461 (9.3%)
Labour: 17994 (48.5%)
Lib Dem: 4233 (11.4%)
SNP: 10716 (28.9%)
TUSC: 357 (1%)
Independent: 365 (1%)
MAJORITY: 7278 (19.6%)

2015 Result:
SNP Chris Law 27,684 61.9 +33.0
Labour Michael Marra 10,592 23.7 −24.8
Conservative Nicola Ross 3,852 8.6 −0.7
Scottish Green Pauline Hinchion5 1,225 2.7 n/a
Liberal Democrats Daniel Coleman6 1,057 2.4 −9.0
TUSC Jim McFarlane7 304 0.7 −0.3
Majority 17,092 38.2
Turnout 44,714 67.8 +8.8

Sitting MP: Chris Law (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold

15. Perth & North Perthshire

2010 Result:
Conservative: 14739 (30.5%)
Labour: 7923 (16.4%)
Lib Dem: 5954 (12.3%)
SNP: 19118 (39.6%)
Others: 534 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 4379 (9.1%)

2015 Result:
SNP Pete Wishart 27,379 50.5 +10.9
Conservative Alexander Stewart6 17,738 32.7 +2.2
Labour Scott Nicholson 4,413 8.1 -8.3
Liberal Democrats Peter Barrett 2,059 3.8 -8.5
Scottish Green Louise Ramsay 1,146 2.1 n/a
UKIP John Myles 1,110 2.0 n/a
Independent Xander McDade 355 0.7 n/a
Majority 9,641 17.8 +8.7
Turnout 54,200 74.8 +7.9

Sitting MP: Pete Wishart (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold
Revised: Con gain

Rumour is that the Tories are fighting hard to wrest this from the SNP. It would be a brave person who would put money on it though.

16. Argyll & Bute

2010 Result:
Conservative: 10861 (24%)
Labour: 10274 (22.7%)
Lib Dem: 14292 (31.6%)
SNP: 8563 (18.9%)
Green: 789 (1.7%)
Independent: 272 (0.6%)
Others: 156 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 3431 (7.6%)

2015 Result:
SNP Brendan O’Hara 22,959 44.3 +25.3
Liberal Democrat Alan Reid 14,486 27.9 −3.7
Conservative Alastair Redman 7,733 14.9 −9.1
Labour Mary Galbraith 5,394 10.4 −12.3
UKIP Caroline Santos5 1,311 2.5 N/A
Majority 8,473 16.3 N/A
Turnout 51,883 75.3 +8.0

Sitting MP: Brendan O’Hara (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold

17. Stirling

2010 Result:
Conservative: 11254 (24%)
Labour: 19558 (41.8%)
Lib Dem: 6797 (14.5%)
SNP: 8091 (17.3%)
Green: 746 (1.6%)
UKIP: 395 (0.8%)
MAJORITY: 8304 (17.7%)

2015 Result:
SNP Steven Paterson 23,783 45.6 +28.3
Labour Johanna Boyd 13,303 25.5 −16.2
Conservative Stephen Kerr 12,051 23.1 −0.9
Scottish Green Mark Ruskell 1,606 3.1 +1.5
Liberal Democrat Elisabeth Wilson 1,392 2.7 −11.8
Majority 10,480 20.1
Turnout 52,135 77.5 +6.7

Sitting MP: Steven Paterson (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold

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General Election Predictions

General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 42: Scotland - Edinburgh

1 May 2017 at 12:42

Scotland – Edinburgh

Seats: 9
Current Political Makeup: SNP 8, Lab 1
Predicted Political Makeup after June 8: SNP 9
Revised: Lab 1, Lib 1, SNP 7

34. Linlithgow & Falkirk

2010 Result:
Conservative: 6146 (11.9%)
Labour: 25634 (49.8%)
Lib Dem: 6589 (12.8%)
SNP: 13081 (25.4%)
MAJORITY: 12553 (24.4%)

2015 Result:
SNP Martyn Day6 32,055 52.0 +26.6
Labour Michael Connarty6 19,121 31.0 −18.8
Conservative Sandy Batho6 7,384 12.0 +0.1
UKIP Alistair Forrest6 1,682 2.7 n/a
Liberal Democrats Emma Farthing-Sykes7 1,252 2.0 −10.8
National Front Neil McIvor6 103 0.2 n/a
Majority 12,934 21.0
Turnout 61,597 70.8 +7.2

Sitting MP: Martyn Day (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold

35. Livingston

2010 Result:
Conservative: 5158 (10.8%)
Labour: 23215 (48.5%)
Lib Dem: 5316 (11.1%)
SNP: 12424 (25.9%)
BNP: 960 (2%)
UKIP: 443 (0.9%)
Independent: 149 (0.3%)
Others: 242 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 10791 (22.5%)

2015 Result:
SNP Hannah Bardell 32,736 56.9 +31.0
Labour Graeme Morrice7 15,893 27.6 −20.8
Conservative Chris Donnelly 5,929 10.3 −0.5
UKIP Nathan Somerville8 1,757 3.1 +2.1
Liberal Democrat Charles Dundas9 1,232 2.1 −9.0
Majority 16,843 29.3
Turnout 57,547 69.9 +6.8

Sitting MP: Hannah Bardell (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold

36. Edinburgh West

2010 Result:
Conservative: 10767 (23.2%)
Labour: 12881 (27.7%)
Lib Dem: 16684 (35.9%)
SNP: 6115 (13.2%)
MAJORITY: 3803 (8.2%)

2015 Result:
SNP Michelle Thomson 21,378 39.0 +25.8
Liberal Democrats Mike Crockart 18,168 33.1 −2.8
Conservative Lindsay Paterson 6,732 12.3 −10.9
Labour Cameron Day 6,425 11.7 −16.0
Scottish Green Pat Black 1,140 2.1 N/A
UKIP Otto Inglis 1,015 1.9 n/a
Majority 3,210 5.9
Turnout 54,858 76.5 +5.2

Sitting MP: Michelle Thomson (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold
Revised: Lib gain

Given Michelle Thomson’s, er, troubles, this might well depress the SNP vote here, even though she’s not standing again. Could well be a LibDem gain.

37. Edinburgh South West

2010 Result:
Conservative: 11026 (24.3%)
Labour: 19473 (42.8%)
Lib Dem: 8194 (18%)
SNP: 5530 (12.2%)
Green: 872 (1.9%)
Others: 367 (0.8%)
MAJORITY: 8447 (18.6%)

2015 Result:
SNP Joanna Cherry4 22,168 43.0 +30.8
Labour Ricky Henderson5 14,033 27.2 -15.6
Conservative Gordon Lindhurst6 10,444 20.2 -4.0
Scottish Green Richard Doherty7 1,965 3.8 +1.9
Liberal Democrat Daniel Farthing-Sykes8 1,920 3.7 -14.3
UKIP Richard Lucas9 1,072 2.1 n/a
Majority 8,135 15.8
Turnout 51,602 71.5 +3.0

Sitting MP: Joanna Cherry (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold

Not the safest of seats for the SNP, but it’s difficult to see Labour coming back here given their poll ratings.

38. Edinburgh North & Leith

2010 Result:
Conservative: 7079 (14.9%)
Labour: 17740 (37.5%)
Lib Dem: 16016 (33.8%)
SNP: 4568 (9.6%)
Green: 1062 (2.2%)
Liberal: 389 (0.8%)
TUSC: 233 (0.5%)
Independent: 128 (0.3%)
Others: 141 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 1724 (3.6%)

2015 Result:
SNP Deidre Brock 23,742 40.9 +31.3
Labour Co-op Mark Lazarowicz7 18,145 31.3 -6.2
Conservative Iain McGill8 9,378 16.2 +1.3
Scottish Green Sarah Beattie-Smith9 3,140 5.4 +3.2
Liberal Democrat Martin Veart10 2,634 4.5 -29.3
UKIP Alan Melville11 847 1.5 n/a
Left Unity Bruce Whitehead12 122 0.2 n/a
Majority 5,597 9.6
Turnout 58,008 71.7 +3.3

Sitting MP: Deirdre Brock (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold

Not a massive majority, but again, is Labour really in a position to mount a serious challenge? The answer is no.

39. Edinburgh East

2010 Result:
Conservative: 4358 (10.9%)
Labour: 17314 (43.4%)
Lib Dem: 7751 (19.4%)
SNP: 8133 (20.4%)
Green: 2035 (5.1%)
TUSC: 274 (0.7%)
MAJORITY: 9181 (23%)

2015 Result:
SNP Tommy Sheppard 23,188 49.2 +28.8
Labour Sheila Gilmore 14,082 29.9 −13.5
Conservative James McMordie 4,670 9.9 −1.0
Scottish Green Peter McColl 2,809 6.0 +0.9
Liberal Democrat Karen Utting 1,325 2.8 −16.6
UKIP Oliver Corbishley8 898 1.9 N/A
TUSC Ayesha Saleem 9 117 0.2 −0.4
Majority 9,106 19.3
Turnout 47,089 70.1 +4.7

Sitting MP: Tommy Sheppard (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold

40. Edinburgh South

2010 Result:
Conservative: 9452 (21.6%)
Labour: 15215 (34.7%)
Lib Dem: 14899 (34%)
SNP: 3354 (7.7%)
Green: 881 (2%)
MAJORITY: 316 (0.7%)

2015 Result:
Labour Ian Murray 19,293 39.1 +4.4
SNP Neil Hay 16,656 33.8 +26.1
Conservative Miles Briggs 8,626 17.5 -4.1
Scottish Green Phyl Meyer 2,090 4.2 +2.2
Liberal Democrats Pramod Subbaraman 1,823 3.7 -30.3
UKIP Paul Marshall 601 1.2 n/a
Scottish Socialist Colin Fox 197 0.4 n/a
Majority 2,637 5.4 +4.7
Turnout 49,286 74.9 +1.1

Sitting MP: Ian Murray (Lab)
Prediction: SNP gain
Revised: Lab hold

The state of the Scottish Labour Party makes it highly likely this seat will fall to the SNP leaving Labour with no seats in Scotland at all. Incredible.

41. Midlothian

2010 Result:
Conservative: 4661 (11.9%)
Labour: 18449 (47%)
Lib Dem: 6711 (17.1%)
SNP: 8100 (20.6%)
Green: 595 (1.5%)
UKIP: 364 (0.9%)
TUSC: 166 (0.4%)
Independent: 196 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 10349 (26.4%)

2015 Result:
SNP Owen Thompson7 24,453 50.6 +30.0
Labour Kenny Young8 14,594 30.2 −16.8
Conservative Michelle Ballantyne7 5,760 11.9 0.0
Scottish Green Ian Baxter9 1,219 2.5 +1.0
UKIP Gordon Norrie10 1,173 2.4 +1.5
Liberal Democrat Aisha Mir 1,132 2.3 −14.8
Majority 9,859 20.4
Turnout 48,331 71.2 +7.3

Sitting MP: Owen Thompson (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold

42. East Lothian

2010 Result:
Conservative: 9661 (19.7%)
Labour: 21919 (44.6%)
Lib Dem: 8288 (16.9%)
SNP: 7883 (16%)
Green: 862 (1.8%)
UKIP: 548 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 12258 (24.9%)

2015 Result:
SNP George Kerevan 25,104 42.5 +26.5
Labour Fiona O’Donnell7 18,301 31.0 −13.6
Conservative David Roach8 11,511 19.5 −0.2
Liberal Democrat Ettie Spencer9 1,517 2.6 −14.3
Scottish Green Jason Rose10 1,245 2.1 +0.4
UKIP Oluf Marshall 1,178 2.0 +0.9
Independent Mike Allan 158 0.3 N/A
Majority 6,803 11.5
Turnout 59,014 74.2 +7.3

Sitting MP: George Kerevan (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold

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General Election Predictions

General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 41. Fife

1 May 2017 at 12:30

Scotland – Fife

Seats: 6
Current Political Makeup: SNP 6
Predicted Political Makeup after June 8: SNP 6
Revised: Lib 1, SNP 5

18. Ochil & South Perthshire

2010 Result:
Conservative: 10342 (20.5%)
Labour: 19131 (37.9%)
Lib Dem: 5754 (11.4%)
SNP: 13944 (27.6%)
Green: 609 (1.2%)
UKIP: 689 (1.4%)
MAJORITY: 5187 (10.3%)

2015 Result:
SNP Tasmina Ahmed-Sheikh 26,620 46.0 +18.4
Labour Gordon Banks 16,452 28.4 -9.5
Conservative Luke Graham 11,987 20.7 +0.2
Liberal Democrats Iliyan Stefanov 1,481 2.6 -8.8
UKIP Martin Gray 1,331 2.3 +0.9
Majority 10,168 17.6
Turnout 57,871 74.8 +7.6

Sitting MP: Tasmina Ahmed-Sheikh (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold

19. North East Fife

2010 Result:
Conservative: 8715 (21.8%)
Labour: 6869 (17.1%)
Lib Dem: 17763 (44.3%)
SNP: 5685 (14.2%)
UKIP: 1032 (2.6%)
MAJORITY: 9048 (22.6%)

2015 Result:
SNP Stephen Gethins4 18,523 40.9 +26.7
Liberal Democrat Tim Brett5 14,179 31.3 −13.0
Conservative Huw Matthew Bell6 7,373 16.3 −5.5
Labour Brian Thomson7 3,476 7.7 −9.5
Scottish Green Andrew Collins8 1,387 3.1 N/A
Independent Mike Scott-Hayward9 325 0.7 N/A
Majority 4,344 9.6
Turnout 45,263 73.0 +6.4

Sitting MP: Stephen Gethins (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold
Revised: Lib gain

Stephen Gethins has had a high profile as SNP Europe spokesman and this may see him home, but a LibDem gain is certainly not out of the question here. The key for Ming Campbell’s successor is to target soft Tory votes. But in all likelihood, Gethins will hang on.

20. Glenrothes

2010 Result:
Conservative: 2922 (7.2%)
Labour: 25247 (62.3%)
Lib Dem: 3108 (7.7%)
SNP: 8799 (21.7%)
UKIP: 425 (1%)
MAJORITY: 16448 (40.6%)

2015 Result:
SNP Peter Grant 28,459 59.8 +38.2
Labour Melanie Ward 14,562 30.6 −31.7
Conservative Alex Stewart-Clark6 3,685 7.7 +0.5
Liberal Democrat Jane Ann Liston7 892 1.9 −5.8
Majority 13,897 29.2
Turnout 47,598 68.2 +8.5

Sitting MP: Peter Grant (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold

21. Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath

2010 Result:
Conservative: 4258 (9.3%)
Labour: 29559 (64.5%)
Lib Dem: 4269 (9.3%)
SNP: 6550 (14.3%)
UKIP: 760 (1.7%)
Independent: 184 (0.4%)
Others: 222 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 23009 (50.2%)

2015 Result:
SNP Roger Mullin 27,628 52.2 +37.9
Labour Co-op Kenny Selbie 17,654 33.4 -31.2
Conservative Dave Dempsey 5,223 9.9 +0.6
UKIP Jack Neill 1,237 2.3 +0.7
Liberal Democrat Callum Leslie 1,150 2.3 -7.1
Majority 9,974 18.9 n/a 1
Turnout 52,892 69.6 +7.4

Sitting MP: Roger Mullin (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold

22. Dunfermline West & Fife

2010 Result:
Conservative: 3305 (6.8%)
Labour: 22639 (46.3%)
Lib Dem: 17169 (35.1%)
SNP: 5201 (10.6%)
UKIP: 633 (1.3%)
MAJORITY: 5470 (11.2%)

2015 Result:
SNP Douglas Chapman 28,096 50.3 +39.6
Labour Thomas Docherty 17,744 31.7 -14.5
Conservative James Adam Reekie 6,623 11.9 +5.1
Liberal Democrat Gillian Cole-Hamilton5 2,232 4.0 -31.1
Scottish Green Lewis Alan Campbell6 1,195 2.1 N/A
Majority 10,352 18.5
Turnout 55,890 71.6 +5.2

Sitting MP: Douglas Chapman (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold

23. Falkirk

2010 Result:
Conservative: 5698 (11.2%)
Labour: 23207 (45.7%)
Lib Dem: 5225 (10.3%)
SNP: 15364 (30.3%)
UKIP: 1283 (2.5%)
MAJORITY: 7843 (15.4%)

2015 Result:
SNP John McNally 34,831 57.7 +27.5
Labour Karen Whitefield 15,130 25.1 -20.6
Conservative Alison Harris 7,325 12.1 +0.9
UKIP David Coburn 1,829 3.0 +0.5
Liberal Democrats Galen Milne 1,225 2.0 -8.3
Majority 19,701 32.6
Turnout 60,340 72.4 +10.4

Sitting MP: John McNally (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold

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General Election Predictions

General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 40. Scotland - Glasgow Surrounds

1 May 2017 at 09:58

Scotland – Glasgow Surrounds

Seats: 9
Current Political Makeup: SNP 9
Predicted Political Makeup after June 8: SNP 8, LibDem 1

24. Cumbernauld, Kilsyth & Kirkintolloch East

2010 Result:
Conservative: 3407 (8.3%)
Labour: 23549 (57.2%)
Lib Dem: 3924 (9.5%)
SNP: 9794 (23.8%)
Others: 476 (1.2%)
MAJORITY: 13755 (33.4%)

2015 Result:
SNP Stuart McDonald 29,572 59.9 +36.1
Labour Gregg McClymont 14,820 30.0 −27.2
Conservative Malcolm MacKay 3,891 7.9 −0.4
Liberal Democrat John Duncan 1,099 2.2 −7.3
Majority 14,752 29.9 n/a
Turnout 49,382 73.6 +9.3

Sitting MP: Stuart McDonald (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold

25. West Dunbartonshire

2010 Result:
Conservative: 3242 (7.7%)
Labour: 25905 (61.3%)
Lib Dem: 3434 (8.1%)
SNP: 8497 (20.1%)
UKIP: 683 (1.6%)
Others: 505 (1.2%)
MAJORITY: 17408 (41.2%)

2015 Result:
SNP Martin Docherty 30,198 59.0 +38.9
Labour Co-op Gemma Doyle 16,027 31.3 -30.0
Conservative Maurice Corry 3,597 7.0 -0.6
Liberal Democrats Aileen Morton 816 1.6 -6.5
Independent Claire Muir7 503 1.0 N/A
Majority 14,171 27.7 n/a 1
Turnout 51,141 73.9 +9.9

Sitting MP: Martin Docherty (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold

26. Inverclyde

2010 Result:
Conservative: 4502 (12%)
Labour: 20993 (56%)
Lib Dem: 5007 (13.3%)
SNP: 6577 (17.5%)
UKIP: 433 (1.2%)
MAJORITY: 14416 (38.4%)

2015 Result:
SNP Ronnie Cowan 24,585 55.1 +37.6
Labour Iain McKenzie 13,522 30.3 -25.7
Conservative George Jabbour 4,446 10.0 -2.0
Liberal Democrat John Watson 1,106 2.5 -10.8
UKIP Michael Burrows 715 1.6 +0.4
CISTA Craig Hamilton 233 0.5 n/a
Majority 11,063 24.8 n/a1
Turnout 44,607 75.2 +11.8

Sitting MP: Ronnie Cowan (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold

27. Paisley & Renfrewshire South

2010 Result:
Conservative: 3979 (9.9%)
Labour: 23842 (59.6%)
Lib Dem: 3812 (9.5%)
SNP: 7228 (18.1%)
Independent: 513 (1.3%)
Others: 624 (1.6%)
MAJORITY: 16614 (41.5%)

2015 Result:
SNP Mhairi Black 23,548 50.9 +32.8
Labour Douglas Alexander 17,864 38.6 –21.0
Conservative Fraser Galloway 3,526 7.6 –2.3
Liberal Democrat Eileen McCartin 1,010 2.2 –7.3
Scottish Socialist Sandra Webster 278 0.6 –0.3
Majority 5,684 12.3
Turnout 46,226 75.4 +9.1

Sitting MP: Mhairi Black (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold

31. East Kilbride, Strathaven & Lesmahagow

2010 Result:
Conservative: 6613 (13%)
Labour: 26241 (51.5%)
Lib Dem: 5052 (9.9%)
SNP: 11738 (23%)
Green: 1003 (2%)
Independent: 299 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 14503 (28.5%)

2015 Result:
SNP Lisa Cameron 33,678 55.6 +32.6
Labour Michael McCann 17,151 28.3 -23.2
Conservative Graham Simpson 7,129 11.8 -1.2
UKIP Rob Sale 1,221 2.0 N/A
Liberal Democrats Paul McGarry3 1,042 1.7 -8.2
Independent John Houston 318 0.5 -0.1
Majority 16,527 27.3
Turnout 60,539 72.8 +6.2

Sitting MP: Lisa Cameron (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold

32. Lanark & Hamilton East

2010 Result:
Conservative: 6981 (15%)
Labour: 23258 (50%)
Lib Dem: 5249 (11.3%)
SNP: 9780 (21%)
UKIP: 616 (1.3%)
Independent: 670 (1.4%)
MAJORITY: 13478 (29%)

2015 Result:
SNP Angela Crawley 26,976 48.8 +27.8
Labour Jimmy Hood 16,876 30.5 -19.4
Conservative Alex Allison 8,772 15.9 +0.9
UKIP Donald Mackay 1,431 2.6 +1.3
Liberal Democrat Gregg Cullen 1,203 2.2 -9.1
Majority 10,100 18.3
Turnout 55,258 69.1 +6.8

Sitting MP: Angela Crawley (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold

33. Airdrie & Shotts

2010 Result:
Conservative: 3133 (8.7%)
Labour: 20849 (58.2%)
Lib Dem: 2898 (8.1%)
SNP: 8441 (23.5%)
Independent: 528 (1.5%)
MAJORITY: 12408 (34.6%)

2015 Result:
SNP Neil Gray 23,887 53.9 +30.4
Labour Pamela Nash 15,108 34.1 −24.0
Conservative Eric Holford 3,389 7.7 −1.0
UKIP Matthew Williams 1,088 2.5 +2.5
Liberal Democrat John Love 678 1.5 −6.6
Independent Deryck Beaumont 136 0.3 N/A
Majority 8,779 19.8
Turnout 44,286 66.3 +8.8

Sitting MP: Neil Gray (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold

58. East Dunbartonshire

2010 Result:
Conservative: 7431 (15.5%)
Labour: 16367 (34.1%)
Lib Dem: 18551 (38.7%)
SNP: 5054 (10.5%)
UKIP: 545 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 2184 (4.6%)

2015 Result:
SNP John Nicolson 22,093 40.3 +29.8
Liberal Democrat Jo Swinson 19,926 36.3 -2.4
Labour Amanjit Jhund 6,754 12.3 −21.8
Conservative Andrew Polson 4,727 8.6 −6.9
Scottish Green Ross Greer 804 1.5 N/A
UKIP Wilfred Arasaratnam 567 1.0 −0.1
Majority 2,167 4.0 n/a
Turnout 54,871 81.91 +6.7

Sitting MP: John Nicholson (SNP)
Prediction: LibDem gain

This is the top LibDem target in Scotland and with a little tactical voting from Labour and the Tories she might well pull it off. John Nicholson has been one of the more high profile SNP MPs but a high national profile doesn’t always go down well locally. One to watch on election night, but I suspect Jo Swinson might win.

59. Paisley & Renfrewshire North

2010 Result:
Conservative: 6381 (14.6%)
Labour: 23613 (54%)
Lib Dem: 4597 (10.5%)
SNP: 8333 (19.1%)
Independent: 550 (1.3%)
Others: 233 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 15280 (35%)

2015 Result:
SNP Gavin Newlands 25,601 50.7 +31.7
Labour Jim Sheridan 16,525 32.7 -21.3
Conservative John Anderson 6,183 12.3 -2.3
Liberal Democrat James Speirs 1,055 2.1 -8.4
Scottish Green Ryan Morrison 703 1.4 n/a
CISTA Andy Doyle 202 0.4 n/a
TUSC Jim Halfpenny2 193 0.4 n/a
Majority 9,076 18.0
Turnout 50,462 76.2 +7.6

Sitting MP: Gavin Newlands (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold

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General Election Predictions

General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 39: Herefordshire & Worcestershire

30 Apr 2017 at 23:54

HEREFORDSHIRE & WORCESTERSHIRE

Seats: 8
Current Political Makeup: Con 8
Predicted Political Makeup after June: Con 8

1. Hereford & South Herefordshire

2010 Result:
Conservative: 22366 (46.2%)
Labour: 3506 (7.2%)
Lib Dem: 19885 (41.1%)
BNP: 986 (2%)
UKIP: 1638 (3.4%)
MAJORITY: 2481 (5.1%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Jesse Norman 24,844 52.6 Increase 6.3
UKIP Nigel Ely8 7,954 16.8 Increase 13.4
Labour Anna Coda 6,042 12.8 Increase 5.5
Liberal Democrat Lucy Hurds9 5,002 10.6 Decrease 30.5
Green Diana Toynbee 10 3,415 7.2 Increase 7.2
Majority 16,890 35.7 Increase 30.6
Turnout 47,257 66.8 Decrease 0.9

Leave Vote: 60.4%
Sitting MP: Jesse Norman (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

2. North Herefordshire

2010 Result:
Conservative: 24631 (51.8%)
Labour: 3373 (7.1%)
Lib Dem: 14744 (31%)
Green: 1533 (3.2%)
UKIP: 2701 (5.7%)
Independent: 586 (1.2%)
MAJORITY: 9887 (20.8%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Bill Wiggin 26,716 55.6 Increase 3.9
UKIP Jonathan Oakton 6,720 14.0 Increase 8.3
Liberal Democrat Jeanie Falconer 5,768 12.0 Decrease 19.0
Labour Sally Prentice 5,478 11.4 Increase 4.3
Green Daisy Blench 3,341 7.0 Increase 3.7
Majority 19,996 41.6 Increase 20.8
Turnout 42,545 72.0 Increase 0.5

Leave Vote: 58%

Sitting MP: Bill Wiggin (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

3. Bromsgrove

2010 Result:
Conservative: 22558 (43.7%)
Labour: 11250 (21.8%)
Lib Dem: 10124 (19.6%)
BNP: 1923 (3.7%)
UKIP: 2950 (5.7%)
Independent: 336 (0.7%)
Others: 2489 (4.8%)
MAJORITY: 11308 (21.9%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Sajid Javid 28,133 53.8 Increase 10.2
Labour Tom Ebbutt 11,604 22.2 Increase 0.4
UKIP Stuart Cross 8,163 15.6 Increase 9.9
Liberal Democrat Bart Ricketts 2,616 5.0 Decrease 14.6
Green Giovanni Esposito 1,729 3.3 Increase 3.3
Majority 16,529 31.6 Increase 9.7
Turnout 52,245 71.2 Increase 0.6

Leave Vote: 55.4%

Sitting MP: Sajid Javid (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

4. Mid Worcestershire

2010 Result:
Conservative: 27770 (54.5%)
Labour: 7613 (14.9%)
Lib Dem: 11906 (23.4%)
Green: 593 (1.2%)
UKIP: 3049 (6%)
MAJORITY: 15864 (31.1%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Nigel Huddleston 29,763 57.0 Increase 2.5
UKIP Richard Keel9 9,213 17.7 Increase 11.7
Labour Robin Lunn 7,548 14.5 Decrease 0.5
Liberal Democrat Margaret Rowley10 3,750 7.2 Decrease 16.2
Green Neil Franks11 1,933 3.7 Increase 2.5
Majority 20,532 39.3
Turnout 52,225 71.5 Increase 0.9

Leave Vote: 59.4%

Sitting MP: Nigel Huddleston (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

5. Redditch

2010 Result:
Conservative: 19138 (43.5%)
Labour: 13317 (30.3%)
Lib Dem: 7750 (17.6%)
BNP: 1394 (3.2%)
Green: 393 (0.9%)
UKIP: 1497 (3.4%)
English Dem: 255 (0.6%)
Christian: 101 (0.2%)
Independent: 100 (0.2%)
Others: 73 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 5821 (13.2%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Karen Lumley 20,771 47.1 +3.6
Labour Rebecca Blake 13,717 31.1 +0.9
UKIP Peter Jewell 7,133 16.2 +12.8
Liberal Democrat Hilary Myers 1,349 3.1 -14.5
Green Kevin White 960 2.2 +1.3
Independent Seth Colton 168 0.4 +0.4
Majority 7,054 16.0

Leave Vote: 61%

Sitting MP: Karen Lumley (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

6. West Worcestershire

2010 Result:
Conservative: 27213 (50.3%)
Labour: 3661 (6.8%)
Lib Dem: 20459 (37.8%)
Green: 641 (1.2%)
UKIP: 2119 (3.9%)
MAJORITY: 6754 (12.5%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Harriett Baldwin 30,342 56.1 Increase 5.8
UKIP Richard Chamings8 7,764 14.4 Increase 10.4
Labour Daniel Walton 7,244 13.4 Increase 6.6
Liberal Democrat Dennis Wharton 5,245 9.7 Decrease 28.1
Green Julian Roskams 3,505 6.5 Increase 5.3
Majority 22,578 41.7 Increase 29.0
Turnout 54,100 73.7

Leave Vote: 52.5%

Sitting MP: Harriett Baldwin (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

7. Worcester

2010 Result:
Conservative: 19358 (39.5%)
Labour: 16376 (33.4%)
Lib Dem: 9525 (19.4%)
BNP: 1219 (2.5%)
Green: 735 (1.5%)
UKIP: 1360 (2.8%)
Independent: 129 (0.3%)
Others: 272 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 2982 (6.1%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Robin Walker 22,534 45.3 +5.8
Labour Joy Squires9 16,888 34.0 +0.5
UKIP James Goad10 6,378 12.8 +10.1
Green Louis Stephen 2,024 4.1 +2.6
Liberal Democrat Federica Smith11 1,677 3.4 -16.1
TUSC Pete McNally12 153 0.3 +0.3
Independent Mark Shuker13 69 0.1 +0.1
Majority 5,646 11.4
Turnout 70.0

Leave Vote: 53.7%

Sitting MP: Robin Walker (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

8. Wyre Forest

2010 Result:
Conservative: 18793 (36.9%)
Labour: 7298 (14.3%)
Lib Dem: 6040 (11.9%)
BNP: 1120 (2.2%)
UKIP: 1498 (2.9%)
Health Concern: 16150 (31.7%)
MAJORITY: 2643 (5.2%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Mark Garnier 22,394 45.3 +8.4
Labour Matt Lamb 9,523 19.3 +4.9
UKIP Michael Wrench 7,967 16.1 +13.2
National Health Action Richard Taylor 7,221 14.6 -17.1
Liberal Democrat Andy Crick 1,228 2.5 -9.4
Green Natalie McVey 1,117 2.3 N/A
Majority 12,871 26.0
Turnout 49,440 63.8 -3.0

Leave Vote: 63.1%

Sitting MP: Mark Garnier (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

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General Election Predictions

General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 38. Warwickshire

30 Apr 2017 at 22:15

WARWICKSHIRE

Seats: 6
Current Political Makeup: Con 6
Predicted Political Makeup after June 8: Con 6

1. Kenilworth & Southam

2010 Result:
Conservative: 25945 (53.6%)
Labour: 6949 (14.3%)
Lib Dem: 13393 (27.7%)
Green: 568 (1.2%)
UKIP: 1214 (2.5%)
Independent: 362 (0.7%)
MAJORITY: 12552 (25.9%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Jeremy Wright 28,474 58.4 +4.8
Labour Bally Singh 7,472 15.3 +1.0
UKIP Harry Cottam 5,467 11.2 +8.7
Liberal Democrat Richard Dickson 4,913 10.1 -17.6
Green Rob Ballantyne6 1,956 4.0 +2.8
Monster Raving Loony Nicholas Green 370 0.8 +0.8
Digital Democracy 7 Jon Foster-Smith 8 139 0.3 +0.3
Majority 21,002 43.0 +17.1
Turnout 48,791 74.8 -6.4

Leave Vote: 46.2%

Sitting MP: Jeremy Wright (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

2. North Warwickshire

2010 Result:
Conservative: 18993 (40.2%)
Labour: 18939 (40.1%)
Lib Dem: 5481 (11.6%)
BNP: 2106 (4.5%)
UKIP: 1335 (2.8%)
English Dem: 411 (0.9%)
MAJORITY: 54 (0.1%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Craig Tracey 20,042 42.3 +2.1
Labour Mike O’Brien 17,069 36.0 -4.0
UKIP William Cash5 8,256 17.4 +14.6
Liberal Democrat Alan Beddow 978 2.1 -9.8
Green Ian Bonner 894 1.9 N/A
TUSC Eileen Hunter 138 0.3 N/A
Majority 2,973 6.3 +6.2
Turnout 47,377 67.2 -0.2

Leave Vote: 67.8%

Sitting MP: Craog Tracey (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

3. Nuneaton

2010 Result:
Conservative: 18536 (41.5%)
Labour: 16467 (36.9%)
Lib Dem: 6846 (15.3%)
BNP: 2797 (6.3%)
MAJORITY: 2069 (4.6%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Marcus Jones 20,827 45.5 +4.0
Labour Vicky Fowler 15,945 34.9 -2.0
UKIP Alwyn Waine 15 6,582 14.4 N/A
Green Keith Kondakor 16 1,281 2.8 N/A
Liberal Democrat Christina Jebb 17 816 1.8 -13.6
TUSC Paul Reilly 194 0.4 N/A
English Democrat Steve Paxton 104 0.2 N/A
Majority 4,882 10.7 +6.1
Turnout 45,749 67.2 +1.4

Leave Vote: 64.5%

Sitting MP: Marcus Jones (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

4. Rugby

2010 Result:
Conservative: 20901 (44%)
Labour: 14901 (31.4%)
Lib Dem: 9434 (19.9%)
BNP: 1375 (2.9%)
Green: 451 (1%)
UKIP: 406 (0.9%)
MAJORITY: 6000 (12.6%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Mark Pawsey 24,040 49.1 +5.0
Labour Claire Edwards 13,695 27.9 -3.5
UKIP Gordon Davies 6,855 14.0 +13.1
Liberal Democrat Ed Goncalves 2,776 5.8 -14.1
Green Terry White 1,415 2.9 +1.9
TUSC Peter McLaren 225 0.5 N/A
Majority 10,345 21.1 +8.5
Turnout 49,006 70.1 +1.2

Leave Vote: 58.6%

Sitting MP: Mark Pawsey (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

5. Stratford on Avon

2010 Result:
Conservative: 26052 (51.5%)
Labour: 4809 (9.5%)
Lib Dem: 14706 (29.1%)
BNP: 1097 (2.2%)
Green: 527 (1%)
UKIP: 1846 (3.7%)
English Dem: 473 (0.9%)
Independent: 1032 (2%)
MAJORITY: 11346 (22.4%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Nadhim Zahawi 29,674 57.7 +6.1
UKIP Edward Fila 6,798 13.2 +9.6
Labour Jeff Kenner 6,677 13.0 +3.5
Liberal Democrat Elizabeth Adams 6,182 12.0 −17.1
Green Dominic Giles 2,128 4.1 +3.1
Majority 22,876 44.5 +22.1
Turnout 51,459 72.6 -0.1

Leave Vote: 51%

Sitting MP: Nadhim Zahawi (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

6. Warwick & Leamington

2010 Result:
Conservative: 20876 (42.6%)
Labour: 17363 (35.4%)
Lib Dem: 8977 (18.3%)
Green: 693 (1.4%)
UKIP: 926 (1.9%)
Independent: 197 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 3513 (7.2%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Chris White 24,249 47.9 Increase 5.4
Labour Lynnette Kelly 17,643 34.9 Decrease 0.5
UKIP Alastair MacBrayne6 4,183 8.3 Increase 6.4
Liberal Democrat Haseeb Arif 2,512 5.0 Decrease 13.3
Green Azzees Minott 1,994 3.9 Increase 2.1
Majority 6,606 13.1 Increase 5.9
Turnout 50,581 70.7 Decrease 0.3

Leave Vote: 41.6%

Sitting MP: Chris White (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

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General Election Predictions

General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 37. Wales - Clwyd

30 Apr 2017 at 21:54

CLWYD

Seats: 7
Current Political Makeup: Con 3, Lab 4
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 7

1. Aberconwy

2010 Result:
Conservative: 10734 (35.8%)
Labour: 7336 (24.5%)
Lib Dem: 5786 (19.3%)
Plaid Cymru: 5341 (17.8%)
UKIP: 632 (2.1%)
Christian: 137 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 3398 (11.3%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Guto Bebb 12,513 41.5 +5.7
Labour Mary Wimbury 8,514 28.2 +3.8
Plaid Cymru Dafydd Meurig 3,536 11.7 −6.1
UKIP Andrew Haigh 3,467 11.5 +9.4
Liberal Democrats Victor Babu7 1,391 4.6 −14.7
Green Petra Haig8 727 2.4 N/A
Majority 3,999 13.3 +2.0
Turnout 30,148 66.2 −1.0

Sitting MP: Guto Bebb (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

2. Alyn & Deeside

2010 Result:
Conservative: 12885 (32.3%)
Labour: 15804 (39.6%)
Lib Dem: 7308 (18.3%)
Plaid Cymru: 1549 (3.9%)
BNP: 1368 (3.4%)
UKIP: 1009 (2.5%)
MAJORITY: 2919 (7.3%)

2015 Result
Labour Mark Tami 16,540 40.0 +0.4
Conservative Laura Knightly 13,197 31.9 −0.3
UKIP Blair Smillie 7,260 17.6 +15.0
Liberal Democrat Tudor Jones 1,733 4.2 −14.1
Plaid Cymru Jacqueline Hurst 1,608 3.9 +0.0
Green Alasdair Ibbotson 976 2.4 N/A
Majority 3,343 8.1 +0.8
Turnout 41,314 66.6 +1.1

Sitting MP: Mark Tami (Lab)
Prediction: Conservative gain

Not a safe seat but there are only two realistic outcomes here. A Labour hold or a Tory gain. Yes, you read that right. This is a seat where UKIP were apparently leeching votes off Labour. Those votes may well go to the Tories this time.

3. Clwyd South

2010 Result:
Conservative: 10477 (30.2%)
Labour: 13311 (38.4%)
Lib Dem: 5965 (17.2%)
Plaid Cymru: 3009 (8.7%)
BNP: 1100 (3.2%)
UKIP: 819 (2.4%)
MAJORITY: 2834 (8.2%)

2015 Result:
Labour Susan Elan Jones 13,051 37.2 −1.2
Conservative David Nicholls 7 10,649 30.4 +0.2
UKIP Mandy Jones 5,480 15.6 +13.3
Plaid Cymru Mabon ap Gwynfor 3,620 10.3 +1.6
Liberal Democrat Bruce Roberts 1,349 3.8 −13.4
Green Duncan Rees 915 2.6 N/A
Majority 2,402 6.9 -1.3
Turnout 35,064 63.8 −0.7

Sitting MP: Susan Elan Jones (Lab)
Prediction: Conservative gain

The Tories had hopes here in 2010 and 2015. This time they could do it.

4. Clwyd West

2010 Result:
Conservative: 15833 (41.5%)
Labour: 9414 (24.7%)
Lib Dem: 5801 (15.2%)
Plaid Cymru: 5864 (15.4%)
UKIP: 864 (2.3%)
Christian: 239 (0.6%)
Independent: 96 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 6419 (16.8%)

2015 Result:
Conservative David Jones 16,463 43.3 +1.7
Labour Gareth Thomas 9,733 25.6 +0.9
UKIP Warwick Nicholson 4,988 13.1 +10.8
Plaid Cymru Marc Jones 4,651 12.2 −3.2
Liberal Democrat Sarah Lesiter-Burgess 1,387 3.6 −11.6
Socialist Labour Bob English 612 1.6 n/a
Above and Beyond Rory Jepson 194 0.5 n/a
Majority 6,730 17.7 +0.9
Turnout 38,028 64.8 -1.0

Sitting MP: David Jones (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

5. Delyn

2010 Result:
Conservative: 12811 (34.6%)
Labour: 15083 (40.8%)
Lib Dem: 5747 (15.5%)
Plaid Cymru: 1844 (5%)
BNP: 844 (2.3%)
UKIP: 655 (1.8%)
MAJORITY: 2272 (6.1%)

2015 Result:
Labour David Hanson 15,187 40.5 −0.2
Conservative Mark Isherwood 12,257 32.7 −1.9
UKIP Nigel Williams 6,150 16.4 +14.6
Plaid Cymru Paul Rowlinson 1,803 4.8 −0.2
Liberal Democrat Tom Rippeth 1,380 3.7 −11.9
Green Kay Roney 680 1.8 N/A
Majority 2,930 7.8 +1.7
Turnout 37,457 69.8 +0.6

Sitting MP: David Hanson (Lab)
Prediction Conservative gain

A straight Labour/Tory fight here, one which David Hanson won in2015. However, there is little room for complacency as his majority has reduced from more than 11,000 to 2930. UKIP have done well in this seat in all sorts of elections. This seat is more likely to go Tory than not.

6. Vale of Clwyd

2010 Result:
Conservative: 12508 (35.2%)
Labour: 15017 (42.3%)
Lib Dem: 4472 (12.6%)
Plaid Cymru: 2068 (5.8%)
BNP: 827 (2.3%)
UKIP: 515 (1.4%)
Others: 127 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 2509 (7.1%

2015 Result:
James Davies 13,760 39.0 +3.8
Labour Chris Ruane 13,523 38.4 −3.9
UKIP Paul Davies-Cooke8 4,577 13.0 +11.5
Plaid Cymru Mair Rowlands 2,486 7.1 +1.2
Liberal Democrat Gwyn Williams9 915 2.6 −10.0
Majority 237 0.7 Turnout 35,261 62.4 −1.3
Conservative gain from Labour Swing +3.9 - Clwyd

Sitting MP: James Davies (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

A surprise capture for the Conservatives in 2015, but former Labour MP Chris Ruane is standing again. Lots of UKIP votes up for grabs.

7. Wrexham

2010 Result:
Conservative: 8375 (25.4%)
Labour: 12161 (36.9%)
Lib Dem: 8503 (25.8%)
Plaid Cymru: 2029 (6.2%)
BNP: 1134 (3.4%)
UKIP: 774 (2.3%)
MAJORITY: 3658 (11.1%)

2015 Result:
Labour Ian Lucas 12,181 37.2 +0.4
Conservative Andrew Mark Atkinson 10,350 31.6 +6.2
UKIP Niall Plevin-Kelly 5,072 15.5 +13.2
Plaid Cymru Carrie Harper 2,501 7.6 +1.5
Liberal Democrat Rob Walsh 1,735 5.3 −20.5
Green David Munnerley 669 2.0 N/A
Independent Brian Edwards7 211 0.6 N/A
Majority 1,831 5.6 −5.5
Turnout 32,719 64.2 −0.6

Sitting MP: Ian Lucas (Lab)
Prediction: Conservative gain

The Conservatives have always scratched their heads and wondered why they haven’t ever won Wrexham in recent times. They may well stop scratching on June 8th.

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General Election Predictions

General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 36. Devon

30 Apr 2017 at 20:05

DEVON

Seats: 12
Current Political Makeup: Con 11, Lab 1
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 11, Lab 1

1. Central Devon

2010 Result:
Conservative: 27737 (51.5%)
Labour: 3715 (6.9%)
Lib Dem: 18507 (34.4%)
Green: 1044 (1.9%)
UKIP: 2870 (5.3%)
MAJORITY: 9230 (17.1%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Mel Stride 28,436 52.2 +0.7
UKIP John Conway 7,171 13.2 +7.8
Labour Lynne Richards7 6,985 12.8 +5.9
Liberal Democrat Alex White 6,643 12.2 −22.2
Green Andy Williamson 4,866 8.9 +7.0
Independent Arthur Price 347 0.6 N/A
Majority 21,265 39.0
Turnout 54,448 74.9

Leave Vote: 50.9%

Sitting MP: Mel Stride (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

2. East Devon

2010 Result:
Conservative: 25662 (48.3%)
Labour: 5721 (10.8%)
Lib Dem: 16548 (31.2%)
Green: 815 (1.5%)
UKIP: 4346 (8.2%)
MAJORITY: 9114 (17.2%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Hugo Swire 25,401 46.4 −1.9
Independent Claire Wright 13,140 24.0 N/A
UKIP Andrew Chapman 6,870 12.5 +4.4
Labour Steve Race5 5,591 10.2 −0.6
Liberal Democrat Stuart Mole 3,715 6.8 −24.4
Majority 12,261 22.4
Turnout 54,717 73.7

Leave Vote: 50.4%

Sitting MP: Hugo Swire (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

3. Exeter

2010 Result:
Conservative: 17221 (33%)
Labour: 19942 (38.2%)
Lib Dem: 10581 (20.3%)
BNP: 673 (1.3%)
Green: 792 (1.5%)
UKIP: 1930 (3.7%)
Liberal: 1108 (2.1%)
MAJORITY: 2721 (5.2%

2015 Result:
Labour Ben Bradshaw 25,062 46.4 +8.2
Conservative Dom Morris 17,879 33.1 +0.1
UKIP Keith Crawford 5,075 9.4 +5.7
Green Diana Moore 3,491 6.5 +4.9
Liberal Democrat Joel Mason 2,321 4.3 −16.2
TUSC Ed Potts 190 0.4 N/A
Majority 7,183 13.3 +8.1
Turnout 54,018 70.2 +2.5

Leave Vote: 44.8%

Sitting MP: Ben Bradshaw (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

The result here will depend on whether the LibDems can win back the vote they lost so dramatically last time. To be honest I have no idea whether that will happen or not, but given that this is a Remain supporting constituency anything is possible. If the Labour vote goes down a few thousand and the Tories can win back a few thousand from UKIP anything is possible. This seat was a Tory seat for many years in the 80s and 90s and it could be again. But I am going to play safe on this one. Bradshaw has a good reputation locally and may just survive the tsunami.

4. Newton Abbot

2010 Result:
Conservative: 20774 (43%)
Labour: 3387 (7%)
Lib Dem: 20251 (41.9%)
Green: 701 (1.5%)
UKIP: 3088 (6.4%)
Independent: 82 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 523 (1.1%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Anne Marie Morris 22,794 47.5 +4.3
Liberal Democrat Richard Younger-Ross7 11,506 23.9 -18.1
UKIP Rod Peers 6,726 13.9 +7.6
Labour Roy Freer8 4,736 9.8 +2.8
Green Steven Smyth-Bonfield9 2,216 4.6 +3.1
Majority 11,288 23.4 +22.3
Turnout 47,978 69 -0.6

Leave Vote: 56%

Sitting MP: Anne-Marie Morris (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

5. North Devon

2010 Result:
Conservative: 18484 (36%)
Labour: 2671 (5.2%)
Lib Dem: 24305 (47.4%)
BNP: 614 (1.2%)
Green: 697 (1.4%)
UKIP: 3720 (7.2%)
English Dem: 146 (0.3%)
Independent: 588 (1.1%)
Others: 96 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 5821 (11.3%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Peter Heaton-Jones4 22,341 42.7 +6.7
Liberal Democrat Nick Harvey5 15,405 29.4 −17.9
UKIP Steve Crowther6 7,719 14.8 +7.5
Labour Mark Cann4 3,699 7.1 +1.9
Green Ricky Knight4 3,018 5.8 +4.4
Communist Gerry Sables 138 0.3 +0.1
Majority 6,936 13.3 +2.0
Turnout 52,453 70.2 +1.3

Leave Vote: 57%

Sitting MP: Peter Heaton-Jones (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Sir Nick Harvey is restanding for the LibDems and if anyone can win it back he can. However, this is a very Eurosceptic area and in the end that’s what may enable the Tories to hold on.

6. Plymouth Moor View

2010 Result:
Conservative: 13845 (33.3%)
Labour: 15433 (37.2%)
Lib Dem: 7016 (16.9%)
BNP: 1438 (3.5%)
Green: 398 (1%)
UKIP: 3188 (7.7%)
Others: 208 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 1588 (3.8%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Johnny Mercer 16,020 37.6 +4.3
Labour Alison Seabeck 14,994 35.2 -2.0
UKIP Penny Mills 9,152 21.5 +13.8
Liberal Democrat Stuart Bonar 1,265 3.0 -13.9
Green Benjamin Osborn 1,023 2.4 +2.4
TUSC Louise Parker 152 0.4 +0.4
Majority 1,026 2.4
Turnout 42,606 61.6 -0.1

Leave Vote: 68.5%

Sitting MP: Johnny Mercer (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

I called this wrong last time and thought it would stay Labour. However, Mercer has been quite high profile and given this has a huge Leave vote it’s difficult to see him losing it.

7. Plymouth Sutton & Devonport

2010 Result:
Conservative: 15050 (34.3%)
Labour: 13901 (31.7%)
Lib Dem: 10829 (24.7%)
Green: 904 (2.1%)
UKIP: 2854 (6.5%)
Independent: 233 (0.5%)
Others: 123 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 1149 (2.6%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Oliver Colvile 18,120 37.8 +3.5
Labour Luke Pollard 17,597 36.7 +5.0
UKIP Roy Kettle 6,731 14.0 +7.5
Green Libby Brown 3,401 7.1 +5.0
Liberal Democrat Graham Reed 2,008 4.2 -20.5
Communist Laura-Jane Rossington 106 0.2 N/A
Majority 523 1.1
Turnout 47,963 65.5

Leave Vote: 51.3%

Sitting MP: Oliver Colville (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

A genuine three way marginal in 2010, it became a two horse fight last time. Labour will be hoping to retake a seat they held during the entirety of the Blair/Brown years but the resukt here is by no means certain.

8. South West Devon

2010 Result:
Conservative: 27908 (56%)
Labour: 6193 (12.4%)
Lib Dem: 12034 (24.1%)
Green: 641 (1.3%)
UKIP: 3084 (6.2%)
MAJORITY: 15874 (31.8%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Gary Streeter 28,500 56.6 +0.6
Labour Chaz Singh 8,391 16.7 +4.2
UKIP Robin Julian 7,306 14.5 +8.3
Liberal Democrat Tom Davies 3,767 7.5 -16.7
Green Win Scutt 2,408 4.8 +3.5
Majority 20,109 39.9 +8.1
Turnout 50,372 70.9 -0.3

Leave Vote: 55.1%

Sitting MP: Gary Streeter (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

9. Tiverton & Honiton

2010 Result:
Conservative: 27614 (50.3%)
Labour: 4907 (8.9%)
Lib Dem: 18294 (33.3%)
Green: 802 (1.5%)
UKIP: 3277 (6%)
MAJORITY: 9320 (17%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Neil Parish 29,013 54.0 +3.7
UKIP Graham Smith 8,857 16.5 +10.5
Labour Caroline Kolek 6,835 12.7 +3.8
Liberal Democrat Stephen Kearney 5,626 10.5 −22.9
Green Paul Edwards 3,415 6.4 +4.9
Majority 20,156 37.5 +20.5
Turnout 70.5

Leave Vote: 57.8%

Sitting MP: Neil Parrish (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

10. Torbay

2010 Result:
Conservative: 19048 (38.7%)
Labour: 3231 (6.6%)
Lib Dem: 23126 (47%)
BNP: 709 (1.4%)
Green: 468 (1%)
UKIP: 2628 (5.3%)
MAJORITY: 4078 (8.3%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Kevin Foster5 19,551 40.7 +2.0
Liberal Democrat Adrian Sanders 16,265 33.8 −13.2
UKIP Anthony McIntyre6 6,540 13.6 +8.3
Labour Su Maddock7 4,166 8.7 +2.1
Green Paula Hermes8 1,557 3.2 +2.3
Majority 3,286 6.8
Turnout 48,079 63.0 −1.6

Leave Vote: 62.4%

Sitting MP: Kevin Foster (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Regarded as a surefire Tory gain in 2010 it didn’t happen, but five years later it did. The LibDems will hope to retake this, but with such a high leave vote it’s difficult to see.

11. Torridge & West Devon

2010 Result:
Conservative: 25230 (45.7%)
Labour: 2917 (5.3%)
Lib Dem: 22273 (40.3%)
BNP: 766 (1.4%)
Green: 1050 (1.9%)
UKIP: 3021 (5.5%)
MAJORITY: 2957 (5.4%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Geoffrey Cox9 28,774 50.9 +5.2
UKIP Derek Sargent10 10,371 18.3 +12.9
Liberal Democrat Paula Dolphin9 7,483 13.2 −27.1
Labour Mike Sparling 6,015 10.6 +5.4
Green Cathrine Simmons9 3,941 7.0 +5.1
Majority 18,403 32.5 +28.1
Turnout 56,786 72.2 +0.8

Leave Vote: 57.2%

Sitting MP: Geoffrey Cox (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

12. Totnes

2010 Result:
Conservative: 21940 (45.9%)
Labour: 3538 (7.4%)
Lib Dem: 17013 (35.6%)
BNP: 624 (1.3%)
Green: 1181 (2.5%)
UKIP: 2890 (6%)
Independent: 390 (0.8%)
Others: 267 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 4927 (10.3%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Sarah Wollaston17 24,941 53.0 +7.1
UKIP Justin Haque18 6,656 14.1 +8.1
Labour Nicky Williams18 5,988 12.7 +5.3
Green Gill Coombs18 4,845 10.3 +7.8
Liberal Democrat Julian Brazil19 4,667 9.9 -25.7
Majority 18,385 38.8 +28.5
Turnout 47,097 68.6 -1.8

Leave Vote: 53.9%

Sitting MP: Dr Sarah Wollaston (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE

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Iain Confronts Sajid Javid About Tweet

It's called a skewering...

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General Election Predictions

General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 35. Cumbria

30 Apr 2017 at 19:48

CUMBRIA

Seats: 6
Current Political Makeup: Con 3, Lab 2, LibDem 1
Predicted Political Makeup after June 8: Con 4, Lab 1, LibDem 1

1. Barrow and Furness

2010 Result:
Conservative: 16018 (36.3%)
Labour: 21226 (48.1%)
Lib Dem: 4424 (10%)
BNP: 840 (1.9%)
Green: 530 (1.2%)
UKIP: 841 (1.9%)
Independent: 245 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 5208 (11.8%)

2015 Result:
Labour Co-op John Woodcock 18,320 42.3 -5.8
Conservative Simon Fell 17,525 40.5 +4.2
UKIP Nigel Cecil 5,070 11.7 +9.8
Liberal Democrat Clive Peaple 1,169 2.7 -7.3
Green Rob O’Hara 1,061 2.5 +1.3
Independent Ian Jackson 130 0.3 N/A
Majority 795 1.8 -10.0
Turnout 43,275 63.3 -0.4

Leave Vote: 57.3%

Sitting MP: John Woodcock (Lab)
Prediction: Conservative gain

Nearly went to the Tories last time. This time it will. When the Tories do well, this seat goes Tory, as it did in 1983.

2. Carlisle

2010 Result:
Conservative: 16589 (39.3%)
Labour: 15736 (37.3%)
Lib Dem: 6567 (15.6%)
BNP: 1086 (2.6%)
Green: 614 (1.5%)
UKIP: 969 (2.3%)
TUSC: 376 (0.9%)
Others: 263 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 853 (2%)

2015 Result:
Conservative John Stevenson 18,873 44.3 +5.0
Labour Lee Sherriff 16,099 37.8 +0.5
UKIP Fiona Mills 5,277 12.4 +10.1
Green Helen Davison 1,125 2.6 +1.2
Liberal Democrat Loraine Birchall 1,087 2.6 -13.0
Independent Alfred Okam 126 0.3 +0.3
Majority 2,774 6.5 +4.5
Turnout 42,587 64.7 0.0

Leave Vote: 60.1%

Sitting MP: John Stevenson (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

A small majority, but it should be enough given the national picture.

3. Copeland

2010 Result:
Conservative: 15866 (37.1%)
Labour: 19699 (46%)
Lib Dem: 4365 (10.2%)
BNP: 1474 (3.4%)
Green: 389 (0.9%)
UKIP: 994 (2.3%)
MAJORITY: 3833 (9%)

2015 Result:
Labour Jamie Reed 16,750 42.3 −3.7
Conservative Stephen Haraldsen 14,186 35.8 −1.3
UKIP Michael Pye 6,148 15.5 +13.2
Liberal Democrat Danny Gallagher 1,368 3.5 −6.7
Green Allan Todd 1,179 3.0 +2.1
Majority 2,564 6.5 −2.4
Turnout 39,631 63.8 −3.8

2017 By Election Result:
Conservative Trudy Harrison 13,748 44.3 +8.5
Labour Gillian Troughton 11,601 37.3 −4.9
Liberal Democrat Rebecca Hanson 2,252 7.2 +3.8
UKIP Fiona Mills 2,025 6.5 −9.0
Independent Michael Guest 811 2.6 N/A
Green Jack Lenox 515 1.7 −1.3
Independent Roy Ivinson 116 0.4 N/A
Majority 2,147 7.0
Turnout 31,889 51.35 −12.4

Leave Vote: 59.2%

Sitting MP: Trudi Harrison (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

4. Penrith & the Border

2010 Result:
Conservative: 24071 (53.4%)
Labour: 5834 (12.9%)
Lib Dem: 12830 (28.5%)
BNP: 1093 (2.4%)
UKIP: 1259 (2.8%)
MAJORITY: 11241 (24.9%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Rory Stewart 26,202 59.7 +6.3
Labour Lee Rushworth 6,308 14.4 +1.4
UKIP John Stanyer 5,353 12.2 +9.4
Liberal Democrat Neil Hughes 3,745 8.5 -19.9
Green George Burrow 2,313 5.3 +5.3
Majority 19,894 45.3 +20.4
Turnout 43,921 67.4 -2.5

Leave Vote: 55.2%

Sitting MP: Rory Stewart (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

5. Westmorland & Lonsdale

2010 Result:
Conservative: 18632 (36.2%)
Labour: 1158 (2.2%)
Lib Dem: 30896 (60%)
UKIP: 801 (1.6%)
MAJORITY: 12264 (23.8%)

2015 Result:
Liberal Democrat Tim Farron 25,194 51.5 −8.5
Conservative Ann Myatt 16,245 33.2 −3.0
UKIP Alan Piper 3,031 6.2 +4.6
Labour John Bateson 2,661 5.4 +3.2
Green Chris Loynes 1,798 3.7 N/A
Majority 8,949 18.3 -5.5
Turnout 48,929 74.3 -1.5

Leave Vote: 47.1%

Sitting MP: Tim Farron (LibDem)
Prediction: LibDem hold

6. Workington

2010 Result:
Conservative: 13290 (33.9%)
Labour: 17865 (45.5%)
Lib Dem: 5318 (13.5%)
BNP: 1496 (3.8%)
UKIP: 876 (2.2%)
English Dem: 414 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 4575 (11.7%)

2015 Result:
Labour Sue Hayman 16,282 42.3 −3.2
Conservative Rozila Kana 11,596 30.1 −3.7
UKIP Mark Jenkinson 7,538 19.6 +17.4
Liberal Democrat Phill Roberts 1,708 4.4 −4.1
Green Jill Perry 1,149 3.0 +3.0
Independent Roy Ivinson 190 0.5 +0.5
Majority 4,686 12.2
Turnout 38,463 65.6

Leave Vote: 61%

Sitting MP: Sue Hayman (Lab)
Prediction: Conservative gain
Revised: Lab hold

Relatively safe Labour seat, or at least it was. All it takes is for half of the UKIP vote to go to the Conservatives and they will win.

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE

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LBC 97.3: Iain Dale looks at TWIGHLIGHT & Teenage Obsessions

Are teenage obsessions healthy? Iain Dale interviews his sister Tracey and 13 year old Philly and talks to teenagers waiting for the Premiere of Twighlight who were camping out in Leicester Square.

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