General Election Predictions

General Election Predictions 43: Herefordshire & Worcestershire

10 Jan 2015 at 09:00

This is the forty-third in a series of blogposts (scroll to the bottom of the article for the others) which will seek to predict the outcome of every seat in the run-up to the next general election. The notion of a universal swing in May 2015 can be totally discounted. Each seat has to be treated on its merits. Feel free to add your comments and tell me where you think I have got things wrong. I will return to update each county analysis when and if I get new information.

Herefordshire & Worcestershire

Seats: 8
Current Political Makeup: Con 8
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 8

1. Hereford & South Herefordshire

2010 Result:
Conservative: 22366 (46.2%)
Labour: 3506 (7.2%)
Lib Dem: 19885 (41.1%)
BNP: 986 (2%)
UKIP: 1638 (3.4%)
MAJORITY: 2481 (5.1%)

Sitting MP: Jesse Norman (Con)
Prediction: Increased Conservative majority

Jesse Norman toppled the LibDems here in 2010 and it’s hard to see a scenario where he doesn’t win again and win big. Labour are nowhere here but may attract back some LibDem voters

2. North Herefordshire

2010 Result:
Conservative: 24631 (51.8%)
Labour: 3373 (7.1%)
Lib Dem: 14744 (31%)
Green: 1533 (3.2%)
UKIP: 2701 (5.7%)
Independent: 586 (1.2%)
MAJORITY: 9887 (20.8%)

Sitting MP: Bill Wiggin (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Safe seat.

3. Bromsgrove

2010 Result:
Conservative: 22558 (43.7%)
Labour: 11250 (21.8%)
Lib Dem: 10124 (19.6%)
BNP: 1923 (3.7%)
UKIP: 2950 (5.7%)
Independent: 336 (0.7%)
Others: 2489 (4.8%)
MAJORITY: 11308 (21.9%)

Sitting MP: Sajid Javid (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Safe seat.

4. Mid Worcestershire

2010 Result:
Conservative: 27770 (54.5%)
Labour: 7613 (14.9%)
Lib Dem: 11906 (23.4%)
Green: 593 (1.2%)
UKIP: 3049 (6%)
MAJORITY: 15864 (31.1%)

Sitting MP: Sir Peter Luff (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Safe seat. Sir Peter Luff is standing down.

5. Redditch

2010 Result:
Conservative: 19138 (43.5%)
Labour: 13317 (30.3%)
Lib Dem: 7750 (17.6%)
BNP: 1394 (3.2%)
Green: 393 (0.9%)
UKIP: 1497 (3.4%)
English Dem: 255 (0.6%)
Christian: 101 (0.2%)
Independent: 100 (0.2%)
Others: 73 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 5821 (13.2%)

Sitting MP: Karen Lumley (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Karen Lumley won this marginal seat from Jacqui Smith in 2010 by a very good margin. She can be confident of holding it in May.

6. West Worcestershire

2010 Result:
Conservative: 27213 (50.3%)
Labour: 3661 (6.8%)
Lib Dem: 20459 (37.8%)
Green: 641 (1.2%)
UKIP: 2119 (3.9%)
MAJORITY: 6754 (12.5%)

Sitting MP: Harriett Baldwin (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

The LibDems put in a lot of effort in this seat in 2010 but it wasn’t to be. Harriett Baldwin will win again.

7. Worcester

2010 Result:
Conservative: 19358 (39.5%)
Labour: 16376 (33.4%)
Lib Dem: 9525 (19.4%)
BNP: 1219 (2.5%)
Green: 735 (1.5%)
UKIP: 1360 (2.8%)
Independent: 129 (0.3%)
Others: 272 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 2982 (6.1%)

Sitting MP: Robin Walker (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

This will be very very close. It’s 48th on Labour’s target list and a seat they need to win to form a majority. Local intelligence seems to be split but the majority of those in the know think Robin Walker will just pull through.

8. Wyre Forest

2010 Result:
Conservative: 18793 (36.9%)
Labour: 7298 (14.3%)
Lib Dem: 6040 (11.9%)
BNP: 1120 (2.2%)
UKIP: 1498 (2.9%)
Health Concern: 16150 (31.7%)
MAJORITY: 2643 (5.2%)

Sitting MP: Mark Garnier (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

The former seat of Independent MP Richard Taylor, who is standing again for the National Health Action Party. Labour got 49% here in 1997 but have dropped to 14%. Richard Taylor’s vote declined by 6.9% last time. I doubt he will regain the seat.

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE

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General Election Predictions

General Election Predictions 42: Oxfordshire

9 Jan 2015 at 20:31

This is the forty-second in a series of blogposts (scroll to the bottom of the article for the others) which will seek to predict the outcome of every seat in the run-up to the next general election. The notion of a universal swing in May 2015 can be totally discounted. Each seat has to be treated on its merits. Feel free to add your comments and tell me where you think I have got things wrong. I will return to update each county analysis when and if I get new information.

Oxfordshire

Seats: 6
Current Political Makeup: Con 5, Lab 1
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 5, Lab 1

1. Banbury

2010 Result:
Conservative: 29703 (52.8%)
Labour: 10773 (19.2%)
Lib Dem: 11476 (20.4%)
Green: 959 (1.7%)
UKIP: 2806 (5%)
Independent: 524 (0.9%)
MAJORITY: 18227 (32.4%)

Sitting MP: Sir Tony Baldry (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Safe seat. Sir Tony Baldry is standing down.

2. Henley

2010 Result:
Conservative: 30054 (56.2%)
Labour: 5835 (10.9%)
Lib Dem: 13466 (25.2%)
BNP: 1020 (1.9%)
Green: 1328 (2.5%)
UKIP: 1817 (3.4%)
MAJORITY: 16588 (31%)

Sitting MP: John Howell (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Safe seat.

3. Oxford East

2010 Result:
Conservative: 9727 (18.8%)
Labour: 21938 (42.5%)
Lib Dem: 17357 (33.6%)
Green: 1238 (2.4%)
UKIP: 1202 (2.3%)
Others: 189 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 4581 (8.9%)

Sitting MP: Andrew Smith (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Andrew Smith came within a whisker of losing this seat in 2005 but was safely home in 2010. He will be again.

4. Oxford West & Abingdon

2010 Result:
Conservative: 23906 (42.3%)
Labour: 5999 (10.6%)
Lib Dem: 23730 (42%)
Green: 1184 (2.1%)
UKIP: 1518 (2.7%)
Others: 143 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 176 (0.3%)

Sitting MP: Nicola Blackwood (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Slightly to her own surprise, I suspect, Nicola Blackwood beat Evan Harris in 2010 (thus gaining the thanks of many LibDems!) and I’d say is a dead cert to dramatically increase her majority in May. LibDems firmly believe they will retake the seat, but never seem to offer any firm reason as to why. The Labour vote has been squeezed to the pips and can’t reduce much further. The LibDems’only hope is for UKIP to take votes from Nicola Blackwood, but, well, how can I put it, is Oxford really the kind of place to vote UKIP?

5 Wantage

2010 Result:
Conservative: 29284 (52%)
Labour: 7855 (13.9%)
Lib Dem: 15737 (27.9%)
Green: 1044 (1.9%)
UKIP: 2421 (4.3%)
MAJORITY: 13547 (24%)

Sitting MP: Ed Vaizey (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Safe seat.

6. Witney

2010 Result:
Conservative: 33973 (58.8%)
Labour: 7511 (13%)
Lib Dem: 11233 (19.4%)
Green: 2385 (4.1%)
UKIP: 2001 (3.5%)
Independent: 166 (0.3%)
Others: 500 (0.9%)
MAJORITY: 22740 (39.4%)

Sitting MP: David Cameron (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Safe seat.

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE

OUT NOW! The Politicos Guide to the General Election (by Iain Dale, Greg Callus, Robert Waller & Daniel Hamilton) £15.99 from Politicos.co.uk or £16.58 from Amazon. Also available as an eBook from Politicos.co.uk at £9.99 and Amazon at £10.19

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ConHome Diary: Yes, The Greens Should Be Classed as a 'Major Party'

9 Jan 2015 at 14:33

So David Cameron and Boris Johnson are both attempting to lose weight. Join the club. Boris is a natural porker and although we often see footage of him running, I suspect he has a constant battle keeping the pounds off. David Cameron and I are have a similar body shape. We are both quite tall, but for tall people we have slightly excessively long backs and short legs. This means that any weight gain is distributed more widely across our bodies and we tend not to get large guts. However, in my case any weight gain is easily identifiable because it goes straight to my face. I was showing a friend a pic of me with Tony Blair taken at the 2001 Labour Party conference. I am barely recognisable due to my fat face. At that point I was touching 20 stone. I’m now a more comfortable 16 stone 8 lbs (on a good day). But I really want to knock off that half a stone. I’ve been toying with joining a gym, but doubt I would actually stick to going, so from Saturday I’m instituting a new running regime. I hate running, but something’s got to be done. I’ve already started to try to change my diet and eat less rubbish, and indeed generally to eat less. Isn’t that the long term secret to losing weight? More exercise and eat less? We’ll soon see.
*
Wednesday’s terror attack wasn’t just an attack on Charlie Hebdo and its staff. Or even just an attack on Paris or France. It was an attack on freedom of speech, freedom of expression, and indeed freedom itself. It wasn’t just a multiple murder. It was an execution, carried in the style of the bad guys on ’24’. I spoke to a friend in Paris and she was almost in a state of complete shock. One thing she said reminded me of my own reaction to the events on 7 July 2005. “Things will never be the same again,” she said, or almost sobbed. I can remember walking along Victoria Embankment towards Portcullis House on the morning of 8 July 2005, helicopters buzzing overhead, and thinking the very same thought. Things do, of course, return to something resembling normal. But I wonder if they will for people who make their living by satirising others. I hope so. Because the freedom to offend is an important one.
*

The news that the US government has made a decision to close RAF Mildenhall in Suffolk will come as a devastating blow to the local economy there. It’s an area I know well, having grown up about 15 miles south of there. It is a massive airbase with more than 16,000 people working there, many of them British. If it does indeed shut down completely it is difficult to imagine what the land could then be used for. I suppose one option might be to build a new garden city there. I almost hesitate to write that, as I’d hate to see it happen. But we do need to build a lot of new houses and they’ve got to go somewhere I suppose. One thing is for sure, local MP Matt Hancock is in for a busy time.
*
This week we learn from Ofcom that in their judgement the Green Party should not be classed as a “main party” at the election as they haven’t secured sufficient support in previous elections or current opinion polls. I hold no candle for the Greens but I do believe in fairness and if I were them I’d take this to Judicial Review. They are invariably outpolling the LibDems at the moment and indeed, they outpolled them in the European elections. They are going to field candidates in most seats – more than ever before – they have an MP, they have MEPs and they control a council. If the LibDems still count as a major party, then surely the Greens have a right to be too. Mind you for broadcasters it would be a nightmare as we’d have to give them equal time. The problem is that they have very few nationally known spokespeople. UKIP used to suffer from the same problem, and to a certain extent still do.


The Telegraph seems to be in the process of slowly committing suicide. This week we learn that they have dispensed with the column written by the excellent Isabel Hardman. She’s columnist who is clearly in the ascendant and you’d have thought they have so few female writers that Isabel would be at the very bottom of their ‘axe’ list. I just don’t understand what is happening to the paper which I used to regard as part of my staple morning routine. Either they’re intent on cutting costs because they’re putting it up for sale, or it is in a great deal of financial trouble. Whatever the truth, they’ve lost me to The Times, which seems to be going from strength to strength.
*
More bad news for the the Bow Group. The Spectator brings us the sad news that Sir John Major has quit as president. The reason given is that he just doesn’t have time any longer to fit them into his busy schedule. Likely story. However, the good news for the group is that they have recruited two new patrons – Roger Scruton and David Starkey. I wonder if either of them know what they have let themselves in for. Any mention of the Bow Group on this site usually results in a flurry of threatening emails and solicitors’ letters. Save your time, lads. Neither the editor or I give a toss about your puerile threats.
*

Only four month to go until election day. I ought to feel excited. I ought to feel like a kid in a sweet shop. But the political arguments this week have left me feeling bored and totally unexcited. The dodgy dossiers, the petty arguments about the NHS and the puerile insults are beginning to make me understand why some people no longer want to have any truck with party politics and don’t bother to vote. If a political geek like me is feeling like that, goodness alone knows how others are going to survive the next four months. I had thought turnout at this election would be well over 70%. I’m beginning to doubt that.

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General Election Predictions

General Election Predictions 41: Wales - South Glamorgan

9 Jan 2015 at 09:00

This is the forty-first in a series of blogposts (scroll to the bottom of the article for the others) which will seek to predict the outcome of every seat in the run-up to the next general election. The notion of a universal swing in May 2015 can be totally discounted. Each seat has to be treated on its merits. Feel free to add your comments and tell me where you think I have got things wrong. I will return to update each county analysis when and if I get new information.

South Glamorgan

Seats: 5
Current Political Makeup: Con 2, Lab 2, LibDem 1
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 1, Lab 4

1. Cardiff Central

2010 Result:
Conservative: 7799 (21.6%)
Labour: 10400 (28.8%)
Lib Dem: 14976 (41.4%)
Plaid Cymru: 1246 (3.4%)
Green: 575 (1.6%)
UKIP: 765 (2.1%)
TUSC: 162 (0.4%)
Independent: 86 (0.2%)
Others: 142 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 4576 (12.7%)

Sitting MP: Jenny Willott (LibDem)
Prediction: Labour gain

Most pundits seem convinced this is a surefire Labour gain. I’m going with the flow here, but I am not 100% sure. Willott could benefit from some Tory tactical voting to keep Labour out. In addition, although UKIP aren’t strong in Cardiff, they could take votes away from Labour as well as the Tories, just as they are sure to do in North Wales. Jenny Willott shouldn’t give up the day job quite yet, but she’s in for the fight of her life.

2. Cardiff North

2010 Result:
Conservative: 17860 (37.5%)
Labour: 17666 (37.1%)
Lib Dem: 8724 (18.3%)
Plaid Cymru: 1588 (3.3%)
Green: 362 (0.8%)
UKIP: 1130 (2.4%)
Christian: 300 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 194 (0.4%)

Sitting MP: Jonathan Evans (Con)
Prediction: Labour gain

I’m not sure any comment is necessary here. This has to be a surefire Labour gain. Just look at the figures.

3. Cardiff South & Penarth

2010 Result:
Conservative: 12553 (28.3%)
Labour: 17262 (38.9%)
Lib Dem: 9875 (22.3%)
Plaid Cymru: 1851 (4.2%)
Green: 554 (1.2%)
UKIP: 1145 (2.6%)
Christian: 285 (0.6%)
Independent: 648 (1.5%)
Others: 196 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 4709 (10.6%)

Sitting MP: Stephen Doughty (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

No change here.

4. Cardiff West

2010 Result:
Conservative: 12143 (29.6%)
Labour: 16894 (41.2%)
Lib Dem: 7186 (17.5%)
Plaid Cymru: 2868 (7%)
Green: 750 (1.8%)
UKIP: 1117 (2.7%)
MAJORITY: 4751 (11.6%)

Sitting MP: Kevin Brennan (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Kevin Brennan won’t have anything to worry about.

5. Vale of Glamorgan

2010 Result:
Conservative: 20341 (41.8%)
Labour: 16034 (32.9%)
Lib Dem: 7403 (15.2%)
Plaid Cymru: 2667 (5.5%)
Green: 457 (0.9%)
UKIP: 1529 (3.1%)
Christian: 236 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 4307 (8.8%)

Sitting MP: Alun Cairns (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

All the pundits tip this seat to remain Tory and I’m not going to buck the trend. Local Tories think UKIP will depress the Labour vote more than their own. We’ll soon see how right they are.

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE

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General Election Predictions

General Election Predictions 40: Wales - West Glamorgan

8 Jan 2015 at 21:31

This is the fortieth in a series of blogposts (scroll to the bottom of the article for the others) which will seek to predict the outcome of every seat in the run-up to the next general election. The notion of a universal swing in May 2015 can be totally discounted. Each seat has to be treated on its merits. Feel free to add your comments and tell me where you think I have got things wrong. I will return to update each county analysis when and if I get new information.

West Glamorgan

Seats: 5
Current Political Makeup: Lab 5
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Lab 5

1. Aberavon

2010 Result:
Conservative: 4411 (14.2%)
Labour: 16073 (51.9%)
Lib Dem: 5034 (16.3%)
Plaid Cymru: 2198 (7.1%)
BNP: 1276 (4.1%)
UKIP: 489 (1.6%)
Independent: 919 (3%)
Others: 558 (1.8%)
MAJORITY: 11039 (35.7%)

Sitting MP: Hywel Francis (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

2. Gower

2010 Result:
Conservative: 13333 (32%)
Labour: 16016 (38.4%)
Lib Dem: 7947 (19.1%)
Plaid Cymru: 2760 (6.6%)
BNP: 963 (2.3%)
UKIP: 652 (1.6%)
MAJORITY: 2683 (6.4%)

Sitting MP: Martin Caton (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

The Tories have always eyed this seat but haven’t managed to win it. Their only hope this time is that UKIp takes votes away from Labour and they’re not replaced by former LibDem voters. I think they need to pray rather than hope.

3. Neath

2010 Result:
Conservative: 4847 (13.1%)
Labour: 17172 (46.3%)
Lib Dem: 5535 (14.9%)
Plaid Cymru: 7397 (19.9%)
BNP: 1342 (3.6%)
UKIP: 829 (2.2%)
MAJORITY: 9775 (26.3%)

Sitting MP: Peter Hain (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat even though Peter Hain is retiring.

4. Swansea East

2010 Result:
Conservative: 4823 (14.8%)
Labour: 16819 (51.5%)
Lib Dem: 5981 (18.3%)
Plaid Cymru: 2181 (6.7%)
BNP: 1715 (5.2%)
Green: 318 (1%)
UKIP: 839 (2.6%)
MAJORITY: 10838 (33.2%)

Sitting MP: Sian James (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat. Sian James is standing down.

5. Swansea West

2010 Result:
Conservative: 7407 (20.8%)
Labour: 12335 (34.7%)
Lib Dem: 11831 (33.2%)
Plaid Cymru: 1437 (4%)
BNP: 910 (2.6%)
Green: 404 (1.1%)
UKIP: 716 (2%)
TUSC: 179 (0.5%)
Independent: 374 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 504 (1.4%

Sitting MP: Geraint Davies (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

The LibDems came within a whisker of winning this seat last time and this is one their main hopes in 2015. Tactical voting by Conservatives may aid and abett them, and they will hope that UKIP leech off some traditional Labour support, but there are too many ‘ifs’ here to be confident of predicting an upset.

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE

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General Election Predictions

General Election Predictions 39: Wales - Mid Glamorgan

8 Jan 2015 at 09:00

This is the thirty-ninth in a series of blogposts (scroll to the bottom of the article for the others) which will seek to predict the outcome of every seat in the run-up to the next general election. The notion of a universal swing in May 2015 can be totally discounted. Each seat has to be treated on its merits. Feel free to add your comments and tell me where you think I have got things wrong. I will return to update each county analysis when and if I get new information.

Mid Glamorgan

Seats: 5
Current Political Makeup: Lab 5
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Lab 5

1. Bridgend

2010 Result:
Conservative: 11668 (30.4%)
Labour: 13931 (36.3%)
Lib Dem: 8658 (22.6%)
Plaid Cymru: 2269 (5.9%)
BNP: 1020 (2.7%)
UKIP: 801 (2.1%)
MAJORITY: 2263 (5.9%)

Sitting MP: Madeleine Moon (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

The only way Labour will lose here is if the LibDem vote goes to the Tories rather than Labour. Unlikely. UKIP didn’t poll much here last time and it will be interesting to see if they influence the outcome.

2. Cynon Valley

2010 Result:
Conservative: 3010 (10.1%)
Labour: 15681 (52.5%)
Lib Dem: 4120 (13.8%)
Plaid Cymru: 6064 (20.3%)
UKIP: 1001 (3.4%)
MAJORITY: 9617 (32.2%)

Sitting MP: Ann Clwyd (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat

4. Ogmore

2010 Result:
Conservative: 5398 (15.6%)
Labour: 18644 (53.8%)
Lib Dem: 5260 (15.2%)
Plaid Cymru: 3326 (9.6%)
BNP: 1242 (3.6%)
UKIP: 780 (2.3%)
MAJORITY: 13246 (38.2%)

Sitting MP: Huw Irranca-Davies (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

5. Pontypridd

2010 Result:
Conservative: 5932 (16.2%)
Labour: 14220 (38.8%)
Lib Dem: 11435 (31.2%)
Plaid Cymru: 2673 (7.3%)
Green: 361 (1%)
UKIP: 1229 (3.4%)
Christian: 365 (1%)
Others: 456 (1.2%)
MAJORITY: 2785 (7.6%)

Sitting MP: Owen Smith (Lab)
Prediction: Increased Labour majority

A big LibDem vote for Labour to eat into. Owen Smith will also benefit from his media exposure as Labour’s Shadow Welsh Secretary.

6. Rhondda

2010 Result:
Conservative: 1993 (6.4%)
Labour: 17183 (55.3%)
Lib Dem: 3309 (10.6%)
Plaid Cymru: 5630 (18.1%)
UKIP: 358 (1.2%)
Independent: 2599 (8.4%)
MAJORITY: 11553 (37.2%)

Sitting MP: Chris Bryant (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat. Having said that, according to Goodwin & Ford this is UKIP’s number 1 Labour target seat. They might reduce Chris Bryant’s majority, but they won’t pick him off.

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE

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General Election Predictions

General Election Predictions 38: Wales - Dyfed

7 Jan 2015 at 21:32

This is the thirty-eighth in a series of blogposts (scroll to the bottom of the article for the others) which will seek to predict the outcome of every seat in the run-up to the next general election. The notion of a universal swing in May 2015 can be totally discounted. Each seat has to be treated on its merits. Feel free to add your comments and tell me where you think I have got things wrong. I will return to update each county analysis when and if I get new information.

Dyfed

Seats: 5
Current Political Makeup: Con 2, Lab 1, LibDem 1, PC 1
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 2, Lab 1, LibDem 1, PC 1

1. Carmarthen East & Dinefwr

2010 Result:
Conservative: 8506 (22.4%)
Labour: 10065 (26.5%)
Lib Dem: 4609 (12.1%)
Plaid Cymru: 13546 (35.6%)
UKIP: 1285 (3.4%)
MAJORITY: 3481 (9.2%)

Sitting MP: Jonathan Edwards (PC)
Prediction: Plaid Cymru hold

A Labour win here is possible but unlikely.

2. Carmarthen West & South Pembrokeshire

2010 Result:
Conservative: 16649 (41.1%)
Labour: 13226 (32.7%)
Lib Dem: 4890 (12.1%)
Plaid Cymru: 4232 (10.4%)
UKIP: 1146 (2.8%)
Independent: 364 (0.9%)
MAJORITY: 3423 (8.5%)

Sitting MP: Simon Hart (Con)
Prediction: Narrow Conservative hold

A difficult one to call but I’m going for a narrow Tory hold based on the fact that the Labour vote has declined here at every election since 1997 and the Tory vote has gone in the opposite direction. The Ashcroft marginal seats poll shows the Conservatives outperforming the rest of Wales here too..

3. Ceredigion

2010 Result:
Conservative: 4421 (11.6%)
Labour: 2210 (5.8%)
Lib Dem: 19139 (50%)
Plaid Cymru: 10815 (28.3%)
Green: 696 (1.8%)
UKIP: 977 (2.6%)
MAJORITY: 8324 (21.8%)

Sittting MP: Mark Williams (LibDem)
Prediction: LibDem hold

Plaid Cymru seem to be very confident they can take back this seat, which they unexpectedly lost in 2005. The LibDems will be badly affected by the loss of the student vote in Aberystwyth and Lampeter, but it’s difficult to work out how badly. I still think it’s a big call to predict anything other than a narrowish LibDem hold here, but I may well be proved wrong.

4. Llanelli

2010 Result:
Conservative: 5381 (14.4%)
Labour: 15916 (42.5%)
Lib Dem: 3902 (10.4%)
Plaid Cymru: 11215 (29.9%)
UKIP: 1047 (2.8%)
MAJORITY: 4701 (12.5%)

Sitting MP: Nia Griffith (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Plaid are in a good second place here but there’s no reason to think they could take enough votes from the other parties to win here.

5. Preseli Pembrokeshire

2010 Result:
Conservative: 16944 (42.8%)
Labour: 12339 (31.2%)
Lib Dem: 5759 (14.5%)
Plaid Cymru: 3654 (9.2%)
UKIP: 906 (2.3%)
MAJORITY: 4605 (11.6%)

Sitting MP: Stephen Crabb (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Crabb has built up a decent majority here and Labour will find him difficult to shift. However, they will hark back to 1992 when Nick Ainger overturned a majority of more than 5,000 to oust Tory minister Nicholas Bennett. But this will be Crabb’s fourth election and I suspect he will have built up quite a large personal vote. His cabinet status is also a boost.

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE

OUT NOW! The Politicos Guide to the General Election (by Iain Dale, Greg Callus, Robert Waller & Daniel Hamilton) £15.99 from Politicos.co.uk or £16.58 from Amazon. Also available as an eBook from Politicos.co.uk at £9.99 and Amazon at £10.19

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LBC 97.3 Book Club: Iain talks to Tia Sharp's Grandmother (Part 2)

Part two of an interview with Christine Bicknell and Tia's stepdad David Niles

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General Election Predictions

General Election Predictions 37: Wales - Clwyd

7 Jan 2015 at 19:45

This is the thirty-seventh in a series of blogposts (scroll to the bottom of the article for the others) which will seek to predict the outcome of every seat in the run-up to the next general election. The notion of a universal swing in May 2015 can be totally discounted. Each seat has to be treated on its merits. Feel free to add your comments and tell me where you think I have got things wrong. I will return to update each county analysis when and if I get new information.

Clwyd

Seats: 7
Current Political Makeup: Con 2, Lab 5
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 2, Lab 5

1. Aberconwy

2010 Result:
Conservative: 10734 (35.8%)
Labour: 7336 (24.5%)
Lib Dem: 5786 (19.3%)
Plaid Cymru: 5341 (17.8%)
UKIP: 632 (2.1%)
Christian: 137 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 3398 (11.3%)

Sitting MP: Guto Bebb (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

As long as the opposition remains fairly evenly split, Guto Bebb can feel confident of winning for a second time. But if Labour take a lot of votes from the LibDems, then they could take this seat.

2. Alyn & Deeside

2010 Result:
Conservative: 12885 (32.3%)
Labour: 15804 (39.6%)
Lib Dem: 7308 (18.3%)
Plaid Cymru: 1549 (3.9%)
BNP: 1368 (3.4%)
UKIP: 1009 (2.5%)
MAJORITY: 2919 (7.3%)

Sitting MP: Mark Tami (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Not a safe seat but there are only two realistic outcomes here. A Labour hold or a Tory gain. Yes, you read that right. This is a seat where UKIP are apparently leeching votes off Labour. This could let the Tories in. Mark Tami will know this so expect a big Labour campaign here.

3. Clwyd South

2010 Result:
Conservative: 10477 (30.2%)
Labour: 13311 (38.4%)
Lib Dem: 5965 (17.2%)
Plaid Cymru: 3009 (8.7%)
BNP: 1100 (3.2%)
UKIP: 819 (2.4%)
MAJORITY: 2834 (8.2%)

Sitting MP: Susan Elan Jones (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

The Tories had hopes here last time around, but they didn’t quite manage it. They won’t this time either. Susan Elan Jones is looking at an increased majoirty.

4. Clwyd West

2010 Result:
Conservative: 15833 (41.5%)
Labour: 9414 (24.7%)
Lib Dem: 5801 (15.2%)
Plaid Cymru: 5864 (15.4%)
UKIP: 864 (2.3%)
Christian: 239 (0.6%)
Independent: 96 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 6419 (16.8%)

Sitting MP: David Jones (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

A Labour win is not out of the question but in twi terms Jones has built up a good majority. However, this time he is faced by the former Labour MP for the area, Gareth Thomas, who wasn’t allowed to stand in 2010 because of an all-women shortlist. He will put up a tough fight, but Jones should triumph.

5. Delyn

2010 Result:
Conservative: 12811 (34.6%)
Labour: 15083 (40.8%)
Lib Dem: 5747 (15.5%)
Plaid Cymru: 1844 (5%)
BNP: 844 (2.3%)
UKIP: 655 (1.8%)
MAJORITY: 2272 (6.1%)

Sitting MP: David Hanson (Lab)
Prediction Labour hold

A straight Labour/Tory fight here, one which David Hanson is most likely to win again. However, there is little room for complacency as his majority has reduced from more than 11,000 to 2272. UKIP topped the poll here in the Euros and David Hanson will fear that they take more votes off him than the Tories.

6. Vale of Clwyd

2010 Result:
Conservative: 12508 (35.2%)
Labour: 15017 (42.3%)
Lib Dem: 4472 (12.6%)
Plaid Cymru: 2068 (5.8%)
BNP: 827 (2.3%)
UKIP: 515 (1.4%)
Others: 127 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 2509 (7.1%

Sitting MP: Chris Ruane (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Very similar to Clwyd West in that it’s a straight Labour/Tory fight with an ever decreasing Labour majority. Another seat where UKIP expect to do well and could deprive Labour of a majority if they eat into the working class vote. This is one of four of five North Wales Labour marginals where this could happen.

7. Wrexham

2010 Result:
Conservative: 8375 (25.4%)
Labour: 12161 (36.9%)
Lib Dem: 8503 (25.8%)
Plaid Cymru: 2029 (6.2%)
BNP: 1134 (3.4%)
UKIP: 774 (2.3%)
MAJORITY: 3658 (11.1%)

Sitting MP: Ian Lucas (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

The Conservatives have always scratched their heads and wondered why they haven’t ever won Wrexham in recent times. UKIP finished first in the Euro elections here and they have opened up a campaign HQ in Wrexham high street. They got very few votes in 2010 in Wrexham but pundits are predicting a high vote this time. But who will they take votes from? The answer is probably all the parties. Ian Lucas will be a nervous man on election night but I can’t really predict anything other than a Labour hold as it stands.

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE

OUT NOW! The Politicos Guide to the General Election (by Iain Dale, Greg Callus, Robert Waller & Daniel Hamilton) £15.99 from Politicos.co.uk or £16.58 from Amazon. Also available as an eBook from Politicos.co.uk at £9.99 and Amazon at £10.19

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LBC 97.3: Iain Dale Entices Ed Balls to Play the Piano

The Shadow Chancellor tinkles the ivories at the Labour Party Conference

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General Election Predictions

General Election Predictions 36: Wales - Gwent

7 Jan 2015 at 14:00

This is the thirty-sixth a series of blogposts (scroll to the bottom of the article for the others) which will seek to predict the outcome of every seat in the run-up to the next general election. The notion of a universal swing in May 2015 can be totally discounted. Each seat has to be treated on its merits. Feel free to add your comments and tell me where you think I have got things wrong. I will return to update each county analysis when and if I get new information.

Gwent

Seats: 8
Current Political Makeup: Con 1, Lab 7
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 1, Lab 7

1. Blaenau Gwent

2010 Result:
Conservative: 2265 (7%)
Labour: 16974 (52.4%)
Lib Dem: 3285 (10.1%)
Plaid Cymru: 1333 (4.1%)
BNP: 1211 (3.7%)
UKIP: 488 (1.5%)
Peoples Voice: 6458 (19.9%)
Others: 381 (1.2%)
MAJORITY: 10516 (32.5%)

Sitting MP: Nick Smith (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

2. Caerphilly

2010 Result:
Conservative: 6622 (17.1%)
Labour: 17377 (44.9%)
Lib Dem: 5688 (14.7%)
Plaid Cymru: 6460 (16.7%)
BNP: 1635 (4.2%)
UKIP: 910 (2.4%)
MAJORITY: 10755 (27.8%)

Sitting MP: Wayne David (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

3. Islwyn

2010 Result:
Conservative: 4854 (14%)
Labour: 17069 (49.2%)
Lib Dem: 3597 (10.4%)
Plaid Cymru: 4518 (13%)
BNP: 1320 (3.8%)
UKIP: 930 (2.7%)
Independent: 1495 (4.3%)
Others: 901 (2.6%)
MAJORITY: 12215 (35.2%)

Sitting MP: Chris Evans (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

4. Merthyr Tydfil & Rhymney

2010 Result:
Conservative: 2412 (7.5%)
Labour: 14007 (43.7%)
Lib Dem: 9951 (31%)
Plaid Cymru: 1621 (5.1%)
BNP: 1173 (3.7%)
UKIP: 872 (2.7%)
Independent: 1845 (5.8%)
Others: 195 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 4056 (12.6%)

Sitting MP: Dai Havard (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Relatively safe seat. Having said that, UKIP did astonishingly well in the Euro elections here. If they repeated that in the General Election and took a lot of votes from Labour, the seat could be vulnerable to the Liberal Democrats. But I’ll believe that when I see it.

5. Monmouth

2010 Result:
Conservative: 22466 (48.3%)
Labour: 12041 (25.9%)
Lib Dem: 9026 (19.4%)
Plaid Cymru: 1273 (2.7%)
Green: 587 (1.3%)
UKIP: 1126 (2.4%)
MAJORITY: 10425 (22.4%)

Sitting MP: David T C Davies (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Safe seat.

6. Newport East

2010 Result:
Conservative: 7918 (23%)
Labour: 12744 (37%)
Lib Dem: 11094 (32.2%)
Plaid Cymru: 724 (2.1%)
BNP: 1168 (3.4%)
UKIP: 677 (2%)
Others: 123 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 1650 (4.8%)

Sitting MP: Jessica Morden (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

A marginal, but with the LibDems in second place it’s almost certain Jessica Morden will increase her majority.

7. Newport West

2010 Result:
Conservative: 12845 (32.3%)
Labour: 16389 (41.3%)
Lib Dem: 6587 (16.6%)
Plaid Cymru: 1122 (2.8%)
BNP: 1183 (3%)
Green: 450 (1.1%)
UKIP: 1144 (2.9%)
MAJORITY: 3544 (8.9%)

Sitting MP: Paul Flynn (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

This seat has always looked marginal and the Tories had high hopes in 2010. They don’t in 2015.

8. Torfaen

2010 Result:
Conservative: 7541 (20%)
Labour: 16847 (44.8%)
Lib Dem: 6264 (16.6%)
Plaid Cymru: 2005 (5.3%)
BNP: 1657 (4.4%)
Green: 438 (1.2%)
UKIP: 862 (2.3%)
Independent: 1419 (3.8%)
Others: 607 (1.6%)
MAJORITY: 9306 (24.7%)

Sitting MP: Paul Murphy (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE

OUT NOW! The Politicos Guide to the General Election (by Iain Dale, Greg Callus, Robert Waller & Daniel Hamilton) £15.99 from Politicos.co.uk or £16.58 from Amazon. Also available as an eBook from Politicos.co.uk at £9.99 and Amazon at £10.19

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Iain Talks to Mango Groove's Claire Johnston About Nelson Mandela

Part of a Nelson Mandela special programme

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Video

Who Won the Debate of the 'Dodgy Dossiers'?

7 Jan 2015 at 10:16

Me on the Daily Politics.

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LBC 97.3: Iain Dale talks to Leon McKenzie about Depression

Former Crystal Palace, Norwich and Fulham Footballer Leon McKenzie joins Iain to discuss depression and his attempt to take his own life, detailed in his book MY FIGHT WITH LIFE

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