General Election Predictions

General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 34. Scotland - Glasgow

30 Apr 2017 at 19:25

Scotland – Glasgow

Seats: 11
Current Political Makeup: SNP 11
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: SNP 11

47. Coatbridge, Chryston & Bellshill

2010 Result:
Conservative: 3374 (8.1%)
Labour: 27728 (66.6%)
Lib Dem: 3519 (8.5%)
SNP: 7014 (16.8%)
MAJORITY: 20714 (49.8%)

2015 Result:
SNP Phil Boswell 28,696 56.6 +39.8
Labour Tom Clarke 17,195 33.9 -32.7
Conservative Mhairi Fraser 3,209 6.3 -1.8
UKIP Scott Cairns 1,049 2.1 N/A
Liberal Democrat Robert Simpson 549 1.1 -7.4
Majority 11,501 22.7 n/a
Turnout 50,698 68.6 +9.2

Sitting MP: Phil Boswell (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold

48. Motherwell & Wishaw

2010 Result:
Conservative: 3660 (9.4%)
Labour: 23910 (61.1%)
Lib Dem: 3840 (9.8%)
SNP: 7104 (18.2%)
TUSC: 609 (1.6%)
MAJORITY: 16806 (43%)

2015 Result:
SNP Clare Adamson 15,291 52.5 +11.1
Labour John Pentland 9,068 31.1 -12.7
Conservative Meghan Gallacher 3,991 13.7 +6.5
Liberal Democrats Yvonne Finlayson 761 2.6 +1.1
Majority 6,223 21.4
Turnout 29,111 51.0 +6.0

Sitting MP: Mario Fellows (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold

49. Glasgow East

2010 Result:
Conservative: 1453 (4.5%)
Labour: 19797 (61.6%)
Lib Dem: 1617 (5%)
SNP: 7957 (24.7%)
BNP: 677 (2.1%)
UKIP: 209 (0.6%)
Others: 454 (1.4%)
MAJORITY: 11840 (36.8%)

2015 Result:
SNP Natalie McGarry 24,116 56.9 +32.2
Labour Margaret Curran 13,729 32.4 −29.2
Conservative Andrew Morrison 2,544 6.0 +1.5
UKIP Arthur Thackeray 1,105 2.6 +2.0
Scottish Green Kim Long 381 0.9 N/A
Liberal Democrats Gary McLelland 318 0.7 −4.3
Scottish Socialist Liam McLaughlan 224 0.5 −0.9
Majority 10,387 24.5
Turnout 42,417 60.3 +8.3

Sitting MP: Natalie McGarry (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold

50. Glasgow North East

2010 Result:
Conservative: 1569 (5.3%)
Labour: 20100 (68.3%)
Lib Dem: 2262 (7.7%)
SNP: 4158 (14.1%)
BNP: 798 (2.7%)
TUSC: 187 (0.6%)
Others: 335 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 15942 (54.2%)

2015 Result:
SNP Anne McLaughlin 21,976 58.1 +43.9
Labour Willie Bain 12,754 33.7 -34.7
Conservative Annie Wells 1,769 4.7 -0.7
Scottish Green Zara Kitson8 615 1.6 n/a
Liberal Democrat Eileen Baxendale9 300 0.8 -6.9
CISTA Geoff Johnson 225 0.6 n/a
TUSC Jamie Cocozza10 218 0.6 -0.1
Majority 9,222 24.4
Turnout 37,857 56.8 +7.7

Sitting MP: Ann McLaughlin (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold

51. Glasgow North

2010 Result:
Conservative: 2089 (7.1%)
Labour: 13181 (44.5%)
Lib Dem: 9283 (31.3%)
SNP: 3530 (11.9%)
BNP: 296 (1%)
Green: 947 (3.2%)
TUSC: 287 (1%)
MAJORITY: 3898 (13.2%)

2015 Result:
SNP Patrick Grady5 19,610 53.1 +41.2
Labour Ann McKechin 10,315 27.9 -16.6
Conservative Lauren Hankinson 2,901 7.9 +0.8
Scottish Green Martin Bartos6 2,284 6.2 +3.0
Liberal Democrat Jade O’Neil 1,012 2.7 -28.6
UKIP Jamie Robertson 486 1.3 N/A
TUSC Angela McCormick7 160 0.4 -0.5
CISTA Russell Benson 154 0.4 N/A
Majority 9,295 25.2
Turnout 36,922 61.4 +3.8

Sitting MP: Patrick Grady (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold

52. Glasgow North West

2010 Result:
Conservative: 3537 (9.9%)
Labour: 19233 (54.1%)
Lib Dem: 5622 (15.8%)
SNP: 5430 (15.3%)
BNP: 699 (2%)
Green: 882 (2.5%)
Others: 179 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 13611 (38.3%)

2015 North West:
SNP Carol Monaghan 23,908 54.5 +39.3
Labour John Robertson 13,544 30.9 -23.2
Conservative Roger Lewis 3,692 8.4 -1.5
Liberal Democrat James Harrison6 1,194 2.7 -13.1
Scottish Green Moira Crawford7 1,167 2.7 +0.2
CISTA Chris MacKenzie 213 0.5 N/A
Communist Zoe Hennessy 136 0.3 -0.2
Majority 10,364 23.6
Turnout 43,854 64.1 +5.7

Sitting MP: Carol Mongaghan (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold

53. Glasgow Central

2010 Result:
Conservative: 2158 (7.1%)
Labour: 15908 (52%)
Lib Dem: 5010 (16.4%)
SNP: 5357 (17.5%)
BNP: 616 (2%)
Green: 800 (2.6%)
UKIP: 246 (0.8%)
Others: 485 (1.6%)
MAJORITY: 10551 (34.5%)

2015 Result:
SNP Alison Thewliss8 20,658 52.5 +35.0
Labour Anas Sarwar 12,996 33.1 −19.0
Conservative Simon Bone 2,359 6.0 −1.1
Scottish Green Cass Macgregor 1,559 4.0 +1.3
UKIP Stuart Maskell9 786 2.0 +1.2
Liberal Democrat Chris Young 10 612 1.6 −14.8
CISTA James Marris 171 0.4 N/A
TUSC Andrew Elliott 11 119 0.3 N/A
Socialist Equality Katie Rhodes 58 0.1 N/A
Majority 7,662 19.5
Turnout 39,318 55.4 +4.5

Sitting MP: Alison Thewliss (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold

54. Glasgow South West

2010 Result:
Conservative: 2084 (6.6%)
Labour: 19863 (62.5%)
Lib Dem: 2870 (9%)
SNP: 5192 (16.3%)
BNP: 841 (2.6%)
TUSC: 931 (2.9%)
MAJORITY: 14671 (46.2%)

2015 Result:
SNP Chris Stephens 23,388 57.2 +40.8
Labour Co-op Ian Davidson 13,438 32.8 -29.7
Conservative Gordon McCaskill 2,036 5.0 -1.6
UKIP Sarah Hemy 970 2.4 N/A
Scottish Green Sean Templeton8 507 1.2 N/A
Liberal Democrat Isabel Nelson9 406 1.0 -8.0
Scottish Socialist Bill Bonnar 176 0.4 N/A
Majority 9,950 24.3
Turnout 40,921 61.8 +7.2

Sitting MP: Chris Stephens (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold

55. East Renfrewshire

2010 Result:
Conservative: 15567 (30.4%)
Labour: 25987 (50.8%)
Lib Dem: 4720 (9.2%)
SNP: 4535 (8.9%)
UKIP: 372 (0.7%)
MAJORITY: 10420 (20.4%)

2015 Result:
SNP Kirsten Oswald9 23,013 40.6 +31.7
Labour Jim Murphy10 19,295 34.0 -16.8
Conservative David Montgomery11 12,465 22.0 -8.4
Liberal Democrat Graeme Cowie12 1,069 1.9 -7.3
UKIP Robert Malyn13 888 1.6 +0.9
Majority 3,718 6.6 n/a
Turnout 56,730 81.1 +3.8

Sitting MP: Kirsten Oswald (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold

This seat is constantly mentioned as a Tory target. Unless I’m missing something, they can dream on. UPDATE: A correspondent writes: The reason East Ren is seen as a Tory (and Labour) target is that there is a strong anti-independence vote. Demographically well off and a strong No in the Indy Referendum. So a battle between Labour and Tory to be seen as the best Unionist bet. Labour have selected the Director of Better Together Blair McDougall which gets that message across. Tories won the respective Scottish Parliament seat in a tight 3 way fight which gives them hope they can do well.

56. Glasgow South

2010 Result:
Conservative: 4592 (11.5%)
Labour: 20736 (51.7%)
Lib Dem: 4739 (11.8%)
SNP: 8078 (20.1%)
BNP: 637 (1.6%)
Green: 961 (2.4%)
TUSC: 351 (0.9%)
MAJORITY: 12658 (31.6%)

2015 Result:
SNP Stewart McDonald 26,773 54.9 +34.7
Labour Tom Harris 14,504 29.7 -22.0
Conservative Kyle Thornton 4,752 9.7 -1.7
Scottish Green Alastair Whitelaw6 1,431 2.9 +0.5
Liberal Democrat Ewan Hoyle7 1,019 2.1 -9.7
TUSC Brian Smith8 299 0.6 -0.3
Majority 12,269 25.2
Turnout 48,778 65.9 +4.2

Sitting MP: Stewart McDonald (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold

57. Rutherglen & Hamilton W

2010 Result:
Conservative: 4540 (9.7%)
Labour: 28566 (60.8%)
Lib Dem: 5636 (12%)
SNP: 7564 (16.1%)
UKIP: 675 (1.4%)
MAJORITY: 21002 (44.7%)

2015 Result:
SNP Margaret Ferrier 30,279 52.6 +36.5
Labour Co-op Tom Greatrex 20,304 35.2 -25.6
Conservative Taylor Muir 4,350 7.6 -2.1
UKIP Janice Mackay3 1,301 2.3 +0.8
Liberal Democrat Tony Hughes 1,045 1.8 -10.2
CISTA Yvonne Maclean 336 0.6 n/a
Majority 9,975 17.3 n/a 1
Turnout 57,615 69.6 +8.1

Sitting MP: Margaret Ferrier (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE

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General Election Predictions

General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 33. London - South West

30 Apr 2017 at 18:44

LONDON SOUTH WEST

Seats: 8
Current Political Makeup: Con 6, Lab 1, LibDem 1
Predicted Political Makeup after June 8: Con 5, Lab 1, LibDem 2

Battersea

2010 Result:
Conservative: 23103 (47.3%)
Labour: 17126 (35.1%)
Lib Dem: 7176 (14.7%)
Green: 559 (1.1%)
UKIP: 505 (1%)
Independent: 155 (0.3%)
Others: 168 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 5977 (12.2%)

2015 Results:
Conservative Jane Ellison 26,730 52.4 +5.0
Labour Will Martindale 8 18,792 36.8 +1.7
Liberal Democrat Luke Taylor 9 2,241 4.4 -10.3
Green Joe Stuart 8 1,682 3.3 +2.2
UKIP Christopher Howe 8 1,586 3.1 +2.1
Majority 7,938 15.6 +3.4
Turnout 51,031 67.0 +1.3

Leave Vote: 22%

Sitting MP: Jane Ellison (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Kingston & Surbiton

2010 Result:
Conservative: 20868 (36.5%)
Labour: 5337 (9.3%)
Lib Dem: 28428 (49.8%)
Green: 555 (1%)
UKIP: 1450 (2.5%)
Others: 473 (0.8%)
MAJORITY: 7560 (13.2%)

2015 Result:
Conservative James Berry 23,249 39.2 +2.7
Liberal Democrat Ed Davey 20,415 34.5 -15.3
Labour Lee Godfrey 8,574 14.5 +5.1
UKIP Ben Roberts 4,321 7.3 +4.8
Green Clare Keogh 2,322 3.9 +2.9
Christian Peoples Daniel Gill 198 0.3 -0.1
TUSC Laurel Fogarty 174 0.3 N/A
Majority 2,834 4.8
Turnout 59,253 72.9 +2.5

Leave Vote: 40.8%

Sitting MP: James Berry (Con)
Prediction: LibDem gain

Ed Davey won this seat in 1997 with a wafer thin majority of 56, which rose to more than 15,000 in 2001. But since then the Conservative vote has been on the rise. Davey has only managed to win with such handsome majorities because he has squeezed the Labour vote from 23% down to 9%. In 2015 the Labour vote rose to 14.5%. If Davey can squeeze it again he wins. James Berry was a Remain supporter but that might not be enough to save him, especially if the Greens stand down, as they are threatening to do.

Mitcham & Morden

2010 Result:
Conservative: 11056 (25.2%)
Labour: 24722 (56.4%)
Lib Dem: 5202 (11.9%)
BNP: 1386 (3.2%)
Green: 381 (0.9%)
UKIP: 857 (2%)
Independent: 155 (0.4%)
Others: 38 (0.1%)
MAJORITY: 13666 (31.2%)

2015 Result:
Labour Siobhain McDonagh 27,380 60.7 +4.2
Conservative Paul Holmes 10,458 23.2 −2.1
UKIP Richard Hilton 4,287 9.5 +7.5
Green Mason Redding 1,422 3.2 +2.3
Liberal Democrat Diana Coman 1,378 3.1 −8.8
Christian Peoples Des Coke 217 0.5 N/A
Majority 16,922 37.5 +6.3
Turnout 45,142 65.9 −1.1

Leave Vote: 49%

Sitting MP: Siobhan McDonough (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Putney

2010 Result:
Conservative: 21223 (52%)
Labour: 11170 (27.4%)
Lib Dem: 6907 (16.9%)
BNP: 459 (1.1%)
Green: 591 (1.4%)
UKIP: 435 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 10053 (24.6%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Justine Greening 23,018 53.8 +0.8
Labour Sheila Boswell 12,838 30.0 +2.6
Liberal Democrat Andrew Hallett 2,717 6.3 −10.6
Green Christopher Poole11 2,067 4.8 +3.4
UKIP Patricia Ward 1,989 4.6 +3.5
Animal Welfare Guy Dessoy 184 0.4 N/A
Majority 10,180 23.8 -0.8
Turnout 42,813 67.0 +2.6

Leave Vote: 27.8%
Sitting MP: Justine Greening (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Richmond Park

2010 Result:
Conservative: 29461 (49.7%)
Labour: 2979 (5%)
Lib Dem: 25370 (42.8%)
Green: 572 (1%)
UKIP: 669 (1.1%)
Independent: 84 (0.1%)
Others: 133 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 4091 (6.9%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Zac Goldsmith 34,404 58.2 +8.5
Liberal Democrat Robin Meltzer 11,389 19.3 -23.5
Labour Sachin Patel12 7,296 12.3 +7.3
Green Andrée Frieze13 3,548 6.0 +5.0
UKIP Sam Naz14 2,464 4.2 +3.0
Majority 23,015 38.9 +32.0
Turnout 59,101 76.5 -0.4

Leave Vote: 28.7%

2016 By-Election Result:
Liberal Democrat Sarah Olney 20,510 49.6 +30.4
Independent Zac Goldsmith 18,638 45.1 -13[n 7]
Labour Christian Wolmar 1,515 3.6 -8.6
Monster Raving Loony Howling Laud Hope 184 0.4 N/A
Independent Fiona Syms 173 0.4 N/A
Christian Peoples Dominic Stockford 164 0.4 N/A
One Love Maharaja Jammu and Kashmir 67 0.1 N/A
No label David Powell 32 0.08 N/A
Majority 1,872 4.5
Turnout 41,367 53.4 -23.0

Sitting MP: Sarah Olney (LibDem)
Prediction: Conservative gain

This is not a by-election and the LibDems are going to find it difficult to hold this seat, even though the Greens have stood down. People forget that at the last election Zac Goldsmith got more than 30k votes and won with a 24k majority. I’d be very surprised to find Sarah Olney winning on June 8th, but I suppose stranger things have happened.

Sutton & Cheam

2010 Result:
Conservative: 20548 (42.4%)
Labour: 3376 (7%)
Lib Dem: 22156 (45.7%)
BNP: 1014 (2.1%)
Green: 246 (0.5%)
UKIP: 950 (2%)
English Dem: 106 (0.2%)
Others: 112 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 1608 (3.3%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Paul Scully 20,732 41.5 -0.8
Liberal Democrat Paul Burstow 16,811 33.7 -12.0
Labour Emily Brothers9 5,546 11.1 +4.2
UKIP Angus Dalgleish 5,341 10.7 +8.7
Green Maeve Tomlinson 1,051 2.1 +1.6
National Health Action Dave Ash10 345 0.7 n/a
TUSC Pauline Gorman 79 0.2 n/a
Majority 3,921 7.9
Turnout 49,905 72.1 -0.7

Leave Vote: 51.3%

Sitting MP: Paul Scully (Con)
Prediction: Narrow Conservative hold

I’m split on this one. Paul Scully won by more than anyone thought last time, and there’s a substantial UKIP vote to eat into, but the LibDems have always been strong here. If Paul Burstow was restanding I might have put this down as a LibDem re-gain, but he’s not, so I won’t.

Twickenham

2010 Result:
Conservative: 20343 (34.1%)
Labour: 4583 (7.7%)
Lib Dem: 32483 (54.4%)
BNP: 654 (1.1%)
Green: 674 (1.1%)
UKIP: 868 (1.5%)
Others: 116 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 12140 (20.3%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Tania Mathias 25,580 41.3 +7.2
Liberal Democrat Vince Cable 23,563 38.0 −16.4
Labour Nick Grant 7,129 11.5 +3.8
UKIP Barry Edwards 3,069 4.9 +3.5
Green Tanya Williams 2,463 4.0 +2.8
Christian Dominic Stockford 174 0.3 n/a
Magna Carta David Wedgwood 26 0.0 N/A
Majority 2,017 3.3
Turnout 62,004 77.3 +2.5

Leave Vote: 33.3%
Sitting MP: Tania Mathias (Con)
Prediction: LibDem gain

This was one of the shocks of election night 2015. Vince Cable regaining this seat is by no means a foregone conclusion, but if the LibDems want to have any sort of revival, it’s something he needs to do. If I were him I’d be spending every hour in Twickenham and avoid the media spotlight. I think he’ll just about squeeze home.

Wimbledon

2010 Result:
Conservative: 23257 (49.1%)
Labour: 10550 (22.3%)
Lib Dem: 11849 (25%)
Green: 590 (1.2%)
UKIP: 914 (1.9%)
Christian: 235 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 11408 (24.1%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Stephen Hammond 25,225 52.1 +3.0
Labour Andrew Judge 12,606 26.0 +3.8
Liberal Democrat Shas Sheehan 6,129 12.7 −12.3
UKIP Peter Bucklitsch 2,476 5.1 +3.2
Green Charles Barraball 1,986 4.1 +2.9
Majority 12,619 26.1 +2.0
Turnout 48,422 73.5 +0.5

Leave Vote: 27.3%

Sitting MP: Stephen Hammond (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE

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General Election Predictions

General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 32. Hampshire

30 Apr 2017 at 16:24

HAMPSHIRE

Seats: 19
Current Political Makeup: Con 18, Lab 1
Predicted Political Makeup after June 8: Con 19

1. Aldershot

2010 Result:
Conservative: 21203 (46.7%)
Labour: 5489 (12.1%)
Lib Dem: 15617 (34.4%)
UKIP: 2041 (4.5%)
Christian: 231 (0.5%)
Others: 803 (1.8%)
MAJORITY: 5586 (12.3%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Gerald Howarth 23,369 50.6 +3.9
Labour Gary Puffett 8,468 18.3 +6.2
UKIP Bill Walker 8,253 17.9 +13.4
Liberal Democrat Alan Hilliar 4,076 8.8 -25.6
Green Carl Hewitt 2,025 4.4 N/A
Majority 14,901 32.3 +20.0
Turnout 46,191 63.8 +0.3

Leave Vote: 58.1%

Sitting MP: Sir Gerald Howarth
Prediction: Conservative hold

2. Basingstoke

2010 Result:
Conservative: 25590 (50.5%)
Labour: 10327 (20.4%)
Lib Dem: 12414 (24.5%)
UKIP: 2076 (4.1%)
Others: 247 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 13176 (26%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Maria Miller 25,769 48.6 -2.0
Labour Paul Harvey 14,706 27.7 +7.3
UKIP Alan Stone 8,290 15.6 +11.5
Liberal Democrat Janice Spalding 3,919 7.4 -17.1
Independent Omar Selim 392 0.7 N/A
Majority 11,063 20.8 -5.2
Turnout 53,076 66.6 -0.5

Leave Vote: 53.6%

Sitting MP: Maria Miller (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

3. East Hampshire

2010 Result:
Conservative: 29137 (56.8%)
Labour: 4043 (7.9%)
Lib Dem: 15640 (30.5%)
UKIP: 1477 (2.9%)
English Dem: 710 (1.4%)
Others: 310 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 13497 (26.3%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Damian Hinds 31,334 60.7 +3.9
UKIP Peter Baillie 6,187 12.0 +9.1
Liberal Democrat Richard Robinson 5,732 11.1 −19.4
Labour Alex Wilks 5,220 10.1 +2.2
Green Peter Bisset 3,176 6.1 +6.1
Majority 25,147 48.7 +22.4
Turnout 51,649 71.1 +0.1

Leave Vote: 49.3%

Sitting MP: Damian Hinds (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

4. Eastleigh

2010 Result:
Conservative: 21102 (39.3%)
Labour: 5153 (9.6%)
Lib Dem: 24966 (46.5%)
UKIP: 1933 (3.6%)
English Dem: 249 (0.5%)
Independent: 154 (0.3%)
Others: 93 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 3864 (7.2%)

2013 BY ELECTION Result:
Conservative: 10,559 (25.4%)
Labour: 3088 (9.8%)
Lib Dem: 13,342 (32.1%)
UKIP: 11,571 (27.8%)
Others: 2,194 (4.8%)
MAJORITY: 1,771 (4.3%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Mims Davies8 23,464 42.3 +3.0
Liberal Democrat Mike Thornton 14,317 25.8 -20.7
UKIP Patricia Culligan9 8,783 15.8 +12.2
Labour Mark Latham10 7,181 12.9 +3.3
Green Ron Meldrum11 1,513 2.7 N/A
Beer, Baccy and Scratchings Ray Hall 133 0.2 N/A
TUSC Declan Clune 114 0.2 N/A
Majority 9,147 16.5 +9.3
Turnout 55,505 69.9 +0.6

Leave Vote: 54.3%

Sitting MP: Mims Davies (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Former LibDem MP and council leader Mike Thornton is standing but it’s difficult in the current climate how he can overcome a 9k majority.

5. Fareham

2010 Result:
Conservative: 30037 (55.3%)
Labour: 7719 (14.2%)
Lib Dem: 12945 (23.8%)
Green: 791 (1.5%)
UKIP: 2235 (4.1%)
English Dem: 618 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 17092 (31.5%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Suella Fernandes4 30,689 56.1 +0.8
UKIP Malcolm Jones5 8,427 15.4 +11.3
Labour Stuart Rose6 7,800 14.3 +0.1
Liberal Democrat Matthew Winnington7 4,814 8.8 −15.0
Green Miles Grindey 2,129 3.9 +2.4
Independent Nick Gregory 705 1.3 N/A
Independent Harvey Hines 136 0.2 N/A
Majority 22,262 40.7
Turnout 54,700 70.8

Leave Vote: 55.5%

Sitting MP: Suella Fernandes (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

6. Gosport

2010 Result:
Conservative: 24300 (51.8%)
Labour: 7944 (16.9%)
Lib Dem: 9887 (21.1%)
BNP: 1004 (2.1%)
Green: 573 (1.2%)
UKIP: 1496 (3.2%)
English Dem: 622 (1.3%)
Independent: 493 (1.1%)
Others: 620 (1.3%)
MAJORITY: 14413 (30.7%)

2015 Majority
Conservative Caroline Dinenage 26,364 55.3 +3.5
UKIP Christopher Wood 9,266 19.4 +16.3
Labour Alan Durrant 6,926 14.5 −2.4
Liberal Democrat Rob Hylands9 3,298 6.9 -14.1
Green Monica Cassidy 1,707 3.6 +2.4
Independent Jeffrey Roberts 104 0.2 N/A
Majority 17,098 35.9 +5.2
Turnout 47,662 65.1 +0.5

Leave Vote: 61.8%

Sitting MP: Caroline Dinenage (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

7. Havant

2010 Result:
Conservative: 22433 (51.1%)
Labour: 7777 (17.7%)
Lib Dem: 10273 (23.4%)
UKIP: 2611 (5.9%)
English Dem: 809 (1.8%)
MAJORITY: 12160 (27.7%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Alan Mak 23,159 51.7 +0.6
UKIP John Perry 9,239 20.6 +14.7
Labour Graham Giles 7,149 15.9 −1.8
Liberal Democrat Steve Sollitt4 2,929 6.5 −16.9
Green Tim Dawes 2,352 5.2 N/A
Majority 13,920 31.1
Turnout 44,828 63.5

Leave Vote: 62.6%

Sitting MP: Alan Mak (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

8. Meon Valley

2010 Result:
Conservative: 28818 (56.2%)
Labour: 3266 (6.4%)
Lib Dem: 16693 (32.6%)
UKIP: 1490 (2.9%)
English Dem: 582 (1.1%)
Independent: 134 (0.3%)
Others: 255 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 12125 (23.7%)

2015 Result:
Conservative George Hollingbery6 31,578 61.1 +4.9
UKIP David Alexander7 7,665 14.8 +11.9
Labour Gemma McKenna 5,656 10.9 +4.5
Liberal Democrat Chris Carrigan 4,987 9.6 −23.0
Green Diana Wellings8 (aka: Diana Korchien9) 1,831 3.5 3.5
Majority 23,913 46.2
Turnout 51,717 71.1 +0.9

Leave Vote: 51.9%

Sitting MP: George Hollingbery (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

9. New Forest East

2010 Result:
Conservative: 26443 (52.8%)
Labour: 4915 (9.8%)
Lib Dem: 15136 (30.3%)
Green: 1024 (2%)
UKIP: 2518 (5%)
MAJORITY: 11307 (22.6%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Julian Lewis 27,819 56.3 +3.4
UKIP Roy Swales5 8,657 17.5 +12.5
Labour Andrew Pope6 6,018 12.2 +2.3
Liberal Democrat Bruce Tennent 4,626 9.4 −20.9
Green Sally May7 2,327 4.7 +2.7
Majority 19,162 38.8
Turnout 49,447 68.0 −0.7

Leave Vote: 60.2%

Sitting MP: Julian Lewis (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

10. New Forest West

2010 Result:
Conservative: 27980 (58.8%)
Labour: 4666 (9.8%)
Lib Dem: 11084 (23.3%)
Green: 1059 (2.2%)
UKIP: 2783 (5.9%)
MAJORITY: 16896 (35.5%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Desmond Swayne 28,420 59.9 +1.1
UKIP Paul Bailey 7,816 16.5 +10.6
Labour Lena Samuels 5,133 10.8 +1.0
Liberal Democrat Imogen Shepherd-DuBey 3,293 6.9 −16.4
Green Janet Richards 2,748 5.8 +3.6
Majority 20,604 43.5
Turnout 69.2

Leave Vote: 55.3%

Sitting MP: Desmond Swayne (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

11. North East Hampshire

2010 Result:
Conservative: 32075 (60.6%)
Labour: 5173 (9.8%)
Lib Dem: 13478 (25.5%)
UKIP: 2213 (4.2%)
MAJORITY: 18597 (35.1%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Ranil Jayawardena 35,573 65.9 +5.3
Liberal Democrat Graham Cockarill 5,657 10.5 −15.0
Labour Amran Justin Matheo Hussain 5,290 9.8 0.0
UKIP Robert John Charles Blay1 4,732 8.8 +4.6
Green Andrew Graham Johnston 2,364 4.4 +4.4
Monster Raving Loony Mad Max Bobetsky 384 0.7 +0.7
Majority 29,916 55.4
Turnout 54,000 72.9 −0.4

Leave Vote: 46.2%
Sitting MP: Ranil Jayawadrena (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

12. North West Hampshire

2010 Result:
Conservative: 31072 (58.3%)
Labour: 6980 (13.1%)
Lib Dem: 12489 (23.4%)
UKIP: 2751 (5.2%)
MAJORITY: 18583 (34.9%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Kit Malthouse9 32,052 58.1 −0.2
UKIP Susan Perkins10 8,109 14.7 +9.5
Labour Andrew Adams 11 7,342 13.3 +0.2
Liberal Democrat Alexander Payton 12 5,151 9.3 −14.1
Green Dan Hill13 2,541 4.6 +4.6
Majority 23,943 43.4
Turnout 55,195 69.7 +0.1

Leave Vote: 54.8%

Sitting MP: Kit Malthouse (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

13. Portsmouth North

2010 Result:
Conservative: 19533 (44.3%)
Labour: 12244 (27.8%)
Lib Dem: 8874 (20.1%)
Green: 461 (1%)
UKIP: 1812 (4.1%)
English Dem: 1040 (2.4%)
TUSC: 154 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 7289 (16.5%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Penny Mordaunt 21,343 47.0 +2.7
Labour John Ferrett6 10,806 23.8 -3.9
UKIP Mike Fitzgerald7 8,660 19.1 +15.0
Liberal Democrat Darren Sanders 2,828 6.2 -13.9
Green Gavin Ellis 8 1,450 3.2 +2.1
TUSC Jon Woods 231 0.5 +0.2
Majority 10,537 23.2 +6.7
Turnout 45,318 62.1 -0.6

Leave Vote: 65.2%

Sitting MP: Penny Mordaunt (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

14. Portsmouth South

2010 Result:
Conservative: 13721 (33.3%)
Labour: 5640 (13.7%)
Lib Dem: 18921 (45.9%)
BNP: 873 (2.1%)
Green: 716 (1.7%)
UKIP: 876 (2.1%)
English Dem: 400 (1%)
Others: 117 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 5200 (12.6%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Flick Drummond 14,585 34.8 +1.6
Liberal Democrat Gerald Vernon-Jackson 9,344 22.3 −23.6
Labour Sue Castillon 8,184 19.5 +5.9
UKIP Steve Harris 5,595 13.4 +11.2
Green Ian McCulloch 3,145 7.5 +5.8
Independent Mike Hancock 716 1.7 N/A
TUSC Sean Hoyle 235 0.6 N/A
JAC Don Jerrard 99 0.2 0.0
Majority 5,241 12.5
Turnout 41,903 58.5

Leave Vote: 49.7%

Sitting MP: Flick Drummond (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

15. Romsey & Southampton North

2010 Result:
Conservative: 24345 (49.7%)
Labour: 3116 (6.4%)
Lib Dem: 20189 (41.3%)
UKIP: 1289 (2.6%)
MAJORITY: 4156 (8.5%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Caroline Nokes 26,285 54.4 +4.6
Liberal Democrat Ben Nicholls 8,573 17.7 -23.5
Labour Darren Paffey 5,749 11.9 +5.5
UKIP Sandra James 5,511 11.4 +8.8
Green Ian Callaghan 2,218 4.6 n/a
Majority 17,712 36.6
Turnout 72.76

Leave Vote: 46.1%

Sitting MP: Caroline Nokes (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

16. Southampton Itchen

2010 Result:
Conservative: 16134 (36.3%)
Labour: 16326 (36.8%)
Lib Dem: 9256 (20.8%)
Green: 600 (1.4%)
UKIP: 1928 (4.3%)
TUSC: 168 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 192 (0.4%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Royston Smith 18,656 41.7 +5.4
Labour Rowenna Davis 16,340 36.5 -0.2
UKIP Kim Rose 6,010 13.4 +9.1
Green John Spottiswoode 1,876 4.2 +2.8
Liberal Democrat Eleanor Bell 1,595 3.6 -17.3
TUSC Sue Atkins 233 0.5 +0.1
Majority 2,316 5.2 +4.8
Turnout 44,710 61.8 +2.2

Leave Vote: 60.3%

Sitting MP: Royston Smith (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Not a dead cert hold, but if the Tories won it last time, it’s difficult to see how they would lose it this time.

17. Southampton Test

2010 Result:
Conservative: 14588 (33%)
Labour: 17001 (38.5%)
Lib Dem: 9865 (22.3%)
Green: 881 (2%)
UKIP: 1726 (3.9%)
Independent: 126 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 2413 (5.5%)

2015 Result:
Labour Alan Whitehead 18,017 41.3 +2.8
Conservative Jeremy Moulton 14,207 32.5 -0.5
UKIP Pearline Hingston 5,566 12.8 +8.8
Green Angela Mawle 2,568 5.9 +3.9
Liberal Democrat Adrian Ford 2,121 4.9 -17.5
Independent Chris Davis 770 1.8 N/A
TUSC Nick Chaffey 403 0.9 +0.9
Majority 3,810 8.7 +3.2
Turnout 43,652 62.1 +0.7

Leave Vote: 49.4%

Sitting MP: Alan Whitehead (Lab)
Prediction: Conservative gain

This seat was held by the Tories up until 1997, but has been relatively solidly Labour ever since. However, as in Itchen, its vote has been on the decline and Labour will be a little worried about losing it if the Tories get a big majority. One to watch on election night.

18. Winchester

2010 Result:
Conservative: 27155 (48.5%)
Labour: 3051 (5.5%)
Lib Dem: 24107 (43.1%)
UKIP: 1139 (2%)
English Dem: 503 (0.9%)
MAJORITY: 3048 (5.4%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Steve Brine 30,425 55.0 +6.5
Liberal Democrat Jackie Porter 13,511 24.4 -18.7
Labour Mark Chaloner 4,613 8.3 +2.9
UKIP Martin Lyon 4,122 7.5 +5.4
Green Michael Wilks 2,645 4.8 N/A
Majority 16,914 30.6 +25.2
Turnout 53,316 74.6 -1.2

Leave Vote: 39.6%

Sitting MP: Steve Brine (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

19. Isle of Wight

2010 Result:
Conservative: 32810 (46.7%)
Labour: 8169 (11.6%)
Lib Dem: 22283 (31.7%)
BNP: 1457 (2.1%)
Green: 931 (1.3%)
UKIP: 2435 (3.5%)
English Dem: 1233 (1.8%)
Independent: 175 (0.2%)
Others: 771 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 10527 (15%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Andrew Turner16 28,591 40.7 -6.0
UKIP Iain McKie17 14,888 21.2 +17.7
Green Vix Lowthion18 9,404 13.4 +12.1
Labour Stewart Blackmore16 8,984 12.8 +1.2
Liberal Democrat David Goodall19 5,235 7.5 -24.2
Independent Ian Stephens20 3,198 4.5 N/A
Majority 13,703 19.5 +4.5
Turnout 70,300 65.0 +1.1

Sitting MP: Andrew Turner (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Andrew Turner has stood down at the last minute but this is a safe Tory hold.

To see previous predictions. click HERE

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General Election Predictions

General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 31. Dorset

30 Apr 2017 at 15:30

DORSET

Seats: 8
Current Political Makeup: Con 8
Predicted Political Makeup after June 8: Con 8

1. Bournemouth East

2010 Result:
Conservative: 21320 (48.4%)
Labour: 5836 (13.3%)
Lib Dem: 13592 (30.9%)
UKIP: 3027 (6.9%)
Independent: 249 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 7728 (17.6%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Tobias Ellwood 6 22,060 49.0 +0.8
Labour Peter Stokes 7,448 16.6 +3.4
UKIP David Hughes 7 7,401 16.5 +9.6
Liberal Democrat Jon Nicholas 3,752 8.4 −22.5
Green Alasdair Keddie8 3,263 7.3 N/A
Independent David Ross 903 2.0 N/A
Majority 14,612 32.6 +15.1
Turnout 45,014 62.6 +0.7

Leave Vote: 53.7%

Sitting MP: Tobias Ellwood (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

2. Bournemouth West

2010 Result:
Conservative: 18808 (45.1%)
Labour: 6171 (14.8%)
Lib Dem: 13225 (31.7%)
UKIP: 2999 (7.2%)
Independent: 456 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 5583 (13.4%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Conor Burns 20,155 48.2 +3.1
UKIP Martin Houlden 7,745 18.5 +11.3
Labour David Stokes 7,386 17.7 +2.9
Liberal Democrat Mike Plummer 3,281 7.9 -23.9
Green Elizabeth McManus 3,107 7.4 +7.4
Patria Dick Franklin 99 0.2 +0.2
Majority 12,410 29.7 +16.3
Turnout 41,767 58.0 -0.1

Leave Vote: 57.7%

Sitting MP: Conor Burns (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

3. Christchurch

2010 Result:
Conservative: 27888 (56.4%)
Labour: 4849 (9.8%)
Lib Dem: 12478 (25.3%)
UKIP: 4201 (8.5%)
MAJORITY: 15410 (31.2%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Christopher Chope 28,887 58.1 +1.7
UKIP Robin Grey 10,663 21.5 +13.0
Labour Andrew Satherley 4,745 9.5 -0.3
Liberal Democrat Andy Canning13 3,263 6.6 -18.7
Green Shona Dunn 14 2,149 4.3 +4.3
Majority 18,224 36.7 +5.5
Turnout 49,707 71.7 -0.1

Leave Vote: 60.0%

Sitting MP: Christopher Chope (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

4. Mid Dorset & North Poole

2010 Result:
Conservative: 20831 (44.5%)
Labour: 2748 (5.9%)
Lib Dem: 21100 (45.1%)
UKIP: 2109 (4.5%)
MAJORITY: 269 (0.6%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Michael Tomlinson 23,639 50.8 +6.3
Liberal Democrat Vikki Slade 13,109 28.2 −16.9
UKIP Richard Turner 5,663 12.2 +7.7
Labour Patrick Canavan7 2,767 6.0 +0.1
Green Mark Chivers8 1,321 2.8 N/A
Majority 10,530 22.6 +22
Turnout 46,499 72.5 +8.1

Leave Vote: 57.08%

Sitting MP: Michael Tomlinson (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

5. North Dorset

2010 Result:
Conservative: 27640 (51.1%)
Labour: 2910 (5.4%)
Lib Dem: 20015 (37%)
Green: 546 (1%)
UKIP: 2812 (5.2%)
Others: 218 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 7625 (14.1%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Simon Hoare4 30,227 56.6 +5.6
UKIP Steve Unwin5 9,109 17.1 +11.9
Liberal Democrat Hugo Miéville6 6,226 11.7 -25.3
Labour Kim Fendley7 4,785 9.0 +3.6
Green Richard Barrington 8 3,038 5.7 +4.7
Majority 21,118 39.6 +25.5
Turnout 53,385 71.6 -1.9

Leave Vote: 56.6%

Sitting MP: Simon Hoare (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

6. Poole

2010 Result:
Conservative: 22532 (47.5%)
Labour: 6041 (12.7%)
Lib Dem: 14991 (31.6%)
BNP: 1188 (2.5%)
UKIP: 2507 (5.3%)
Independent: 177 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 7541 (15.9%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Robert Syms 23,745 50.1 +2.6
UKIP David Young16 7,956 16.8 +11.5
Labour Helen Rosser 6,102 12.9 +0.1
Liberal Democrat Philip Eades 5,572 11.8 -19.8
Green Adrian Oliver17 2,198 4.6 +4.6
The Party for Poole People Ltd.18 Mark Howell19 1,766 3.7 +3.7
Independent Ian Northover 54 0.1 +0.1
Majority 15,789 33.3
Turnout 47,393 65.3 -8.1

Leave Vote: 57.4%

Sitting MP: Robert Syms (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

7. South Dorset

2010 Result:
Conservative: 22667 (45.1%)
Labour: 15224 (30.3%)
Lib Dem: 9557 (19%)
Green: 595 (1.2%)
UKIP: 2034 (4%)
Others: 233 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 7443 (14.8%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Richard Drax 23,756 48.7 +3.6
Labour Simon Bowkett 11,762 24.2 -6.1
UKIP Malcolm Shakesby10 7,304 15.0 +11.0
Liberal Democrat Howard Legg11 2,901 6.0 -13.0
Green Jane Burnet12 2,275 4.7 +3.5
Independent Mervyn Stewkesbury 435 0.9
Movement for Active Democracy Andy Kirkwood 164 0.3 -0.2
Majority 11,994 24.7
Turnout 48,737 68.1

Leave Vote: 59.4%

Sitting MP: Richard Drax (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

8. West Dorset

2010 Result:
Conservative: 27287 (47.6%)
Labour: 3815 (6.7%)
Lib Dem: 23364 (40.7%)
Green: 675 (1.2%)
UKIP: 2196 (3.8%)
MAJORITY: 3923 (6.8%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Oliver Letwin 28,329 50.2 +2.6
Liberal Democrat Ros Kayes 12,199 21.6 −19.1
UKIP David Glossop 7,055 12.5 +8.7
Labour Rachel Rogers 5,633 10.0 +3.3
Green Peter Barton 3,242 5.7 +4.6
Majority 16,130 28.6
Turnout 56,643 72.6 −2.0

Leave Vote: 51%

Sitting MP: Oliver Letwin (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE

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General Election Predictions

General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 30. West Sussex

30 Apr 2017 at 14:34

WEST SUSSEX

Seats: 8
Current Political Makeup: Con 8
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 8

1. Arundel & South Downs

2010 Result:
Conservative: 32333 (57.8%)
Labour: 4835 (8.6%)
Lib Dem: 15642 (27.9%)
UKIP: 3172 (5.7%)
MAJORITY: 16691 (29.8%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Nick Herbert 34,331 60.8 +3.0
UKIP Peter Grace 8,154 14.4 +8.8
Labour Christopher Wellbelove 6,324 11.2 +2.6
Liberal Democrat Shweta Kapadia 4,062 7.2 −20.7
Green Isabel Thurston 3,606 6.4 +6.4
Majority 26,177 46.3 +16.4
Turnout 56,477 73.1 +0.9

Leave Vote: 49.7%

Sitting MP: Nick Herbert (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

2. Bognor Regis & Littlehampton

2010 Result:
Conservative: 24087 (51.4%)
Labour: 6580 (14%)
Lib Dem: 11024 (23.5%)
BNP: 1890 (4%)
UKIP: 3036 (6.5%)
Independent: 235 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 13063 (27.9%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Nick Gibb 24,185 51.3 −0.1
UKIP Graham Jones 10,241 21.7 +15.3
Labour Alan Butcher 6,508 13.8 −0.2
Liberal Democrat Francis Oppler 4,240 9.0 −14.5
Green Simon McDougall 1,942 4.1 +4.1
Majority 13,944 29.6 +1.7
Turnout 47,116 64.5 -1.7

Leave Vote: 64.8%

Sitting MP: Nick Gibb (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

3. Chichester

2010 Result:
Conservative: 31427 (55.3%)
Labour: 5937 (10.5%)
Lib Dem: 15550 (27.4%)
UKIP: 3873 (6.8%)
MAJORITY: 15877 (28%)

2015 result:
Conservative Andrew Tyrie 32,953 57.7 +2.3
UKIP Andrew Moncreiff11 8,540 14.9 +8.1
Labour Mark Farwell12 6,933 12.1 +1.7
Liberal Democrat Andrew Smith13 4,865 8.5 −18.9
Green Jasper Richmond14 3,742 6.5 N/A
Patria Andrew Emerson 106 0.2 N/A
Majority 24,413 42.7 +14.7
Turnout 57,139 68.4 -1.0

Leave Vote: 50.73%

Sitting MP: Andrew Tyrie (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

4. Crawley

2010 Result:
Conservative: 21264 (44.8%)
Labour: 15336 (32.3%)
Lib Dem: 6844 (14.4%)
BNP: 1672 (3.5%)
Green: 598 (1.3%)
UKIP: 1382 (2.9%)
Independent: 143 (0.3%)
Others: 265 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 5928 (12.5%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Henry Smith 6 22,829 47.0 +2.3
Labour Chris Oxlade 6 16,303 33.6 +1.3
UKIP Christopher Brown7 6,979 14.4 +11.5
Liberal Democrat Sarah Osborne8 1,339 2.8 -11.6
Green Guy Hudson9 1,100 2.3 +1.0
Majority 6,526 13.4 +2.3
Turnout 48,550 65.7 +0.4

Leave Vote: 58.4%

Sitting MP: Henry Smith (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Widely tipped to lose last time, instead Henry Smith increased his majority. He’s likely to do so again.

5. East Worthing & Shoreham

Conservative: 23458 (48.5%)
Labour: 8087 (16.7%)
Lib Dem: 12353 (25.5%)
Green: 1126 (2.3%)
UKIP: 2984 (6.2%)
English Dem: 389 (0.8%)
MAJORITY: 11105 (22.9%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Tim Loughton 24,686 49.5 +1.0
Labour Tim Macpherson 9,737 19.5 +2.8
UKIP Mike J. Glennon 8,267 16.6 +10.4
Liberal Democrat Bob Smytherman 3,360 6.7 −18.8
Green James Doyle 2,605 5.2 +2.9
National Health Action Carl Walker 1,243 2.5 N/A
Majority 14,949 30.0 +7.1
Turnout 49,898 67.2 +1.8

Leave Vote: 53.7%

Sitting MP: Tim Loughton (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

6. Horsham

2010 Result:
Conservative: 29447 (52.7%)
Labour: 4189 (7.5%)
Lib Dem: 17987 (32.2%)
Green: 570 (1%)
UKIP: 2839 (5.1%)
Christian: 469 (0.8%)
Independent: 87 (0.2%)
Others: 253 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 11460 (20.5%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Jeremy Quin11 32,627 57.3 +4.6
UKIP Roger Arthur1213 7,969 14.0 +8.9
Liberal Democrat Morwen Millson 6,647 11.7 −20.5
Labour Martyn Davis14 6,499 11.4 +3.9
Green Darrin Green15 2,198 3.9 +2.8
Something New James Smith16 375 0.7 +0.7
Peace Jim Duggan17 307 0.5 +0.1
Independent Jim Rae18 303 0.5 +0.5
Majority 24,658 43.3
Turnout 56,925 72.8

Leave Vote: 49.5%

Sitting MP: Jeremy Quin (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

7. Mid Sussex

2010 Result:
Conservative: 29447 (52.7%)
Labour: 4189 (7.5%)
Lib Dem: 17987 (32.2%)
Green: 570 (1%)
UKIP: 2839 (5.1%)
Christian: 469 (0.8%)
Independent: 87 (0.2%)
Others: 253 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 11460 (20.5%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Nicholas Soames 32,268 56.1 +5.4
Labour Greg Mountain 7,982 13.9 +7.3
UKIP Toby Brothers 6,898 12.0 +9.5
Liberal Democrat Daisy Cooper7 6,604 11.5 −26.0
Green Miranda Diboll8 2,453 4.3 +3.1
Independent Beki Adam9 958 1.7 N/A
Monster Raving Loony Baron Von Thunderclap 329 0.6 +0.1
Majority 24,286 42.2
Turnout 57,492 72.3

Leave Vote: 46.4%

Sitting MP: Sir Nicholas Soames (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

8. Worthing West

2010 Result:
Conservative: 25416 (51.7%)
Labour: 5800 (11.8%)
Lib Dem: 13687 (27.9%)
Green: 996 (2%)
UKIP: 2924 (6%)
Christian: 300 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 11729 (23.9%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Peter Bottomley 26,124 51.5 −0.3
UKIP Timothy Cross 9,269 18.3 +12.3
Labour Jim Deen 7,955 15.7 +3.9
Liberal Democrat Hazel Thorpe 4,477 8.8 −19.0
Green David Aherne 2,938 5.8 +3.8
Majority 16,855 33.2
Turnout 50,763 67.1 +2.4

Leave Vote: 56.0%

Sitting MP: Sir Peter Bottomley (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

To see the complete list of predictions click HERE

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General Election Predictions

General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 29. East Sussex

30 Apr 2017 at 10:52

EAST SUSSEX

Seats: 8
Current Political Makeup: Con 6, Lab 1, Green 1
Predicted Political Makeup after June 8: Con 5, Lab 1, LibDem 1, Green 1
Revised: Con 5, Lab 1, LibDem 1, Green 1

1. Bexhill & Battle

2010 Result:
Conservative: 28147 (51.6%)
Labour: 6524 (12%)
Lib Dem: 15267 (28%)
BNP: 1950 (3.6%)
Others: 2699 (4.9%)
MAJORITY: 12880 (23.6%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Huw Merriman 7 30,245 54.8 +3.2
UKIP Geoffrey Bastin 8 10,170 18.4 N/A
Labour Michelle Thew 9 7,797 14.1 +2.1
Liberal Democrat Rachel Sadler 10 4,199 7.6 −20.4
Green Jonathan Kent 2,807 5.1 N/A
Majority 20,075 36.4 +12.8
Turnout 55,218 70.1 +1.1

Leave Vote: 57.2%

Sitting MP: Huw Merriman (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

2. Brighton Kemptown

2010 Result:
Conservative: 16217 (38%)
Labour: 14889 (34.9%)
Lib Dem: 7691 (18%)
Green: 2330 (5.5%)
UKIP: 1384 (3.2%)
TUSC: 194 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 1328 (3.1%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Simon Kirby 8 18,428 40.7 +2.7
Labour Nancy Platts8 17,738 39.2 +4.3
UKIP Ian Buchanan9 4,446 9.8 +6.6
Green Davy Jones 8 3,187 7.0 +1.6
Liberal Democrat Paul Chandler10 1,365 3.0 −15.0
Socialist (GB) Jacqueline Shodeke 11 73 0.2 N/A
Independent Matthew Taylor 12 69 0.2 N/A
Majority 690 1.5 −1.6
Turnout 45,306 66.8 +2.1

Leave Vote: 43.6%

Sitting MP: Simon Kirby (Con)
Prediction: Labour gain

This is one of the seats that I can see Labour gaining, mainly due to the demographics. The UKIP vote is not insignificant here but it will be difficult for Kirby to gain support from UKIP voters bearing in mind he supported the Remain campaign. The Greens have this week announced they will not stand here which could make this a surefire Labour gain, unless their vote goes almost entirely to the LibDems. If the LibDems recover their vote share here from 2010, again it could play into Simon Kirby’s hands.

3. Brighton Pavilion

2010 Result:
Conservative: 12275 (23.7%)
Labour: 14986 (28.9%)
Lib Dem: 7159 (13.8%)
Green: 16238 (31.3%)
UKIP: 948 (1.8%)
Others: 228 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 1252 (2.4%)

2015 Result:
Green Caroline Lucas 22,871 41.8 +10.5
Labour Purna Sen 14,904 27.3 −1.7
Conservative Clarence Mitchell 12,448 22.8 −0.9
UKIP Nigel Carter 2,724 5.0 +3.2
Liberal Democrat Chris Bowers 1,525 2.8 −11.0
Independent Nick Yeomans 116 0.2 N/A
Socialist (GB) Howard Pilott 88 0.2 N/A
Majority 7,967 14.6 +12.2
Turnout 54,676 71.4 +1.4

Leave Vote: 25.9%

Sitting MP: Caroline Lucas (Green)
Prediction: Green hold

I can see no prospect of anything other than a Green hold here.

4. Eastbourne

2010 Result:
Conservative: 21223 (40.7%)
Labour: 2497 (4.8%)
Lib Dem: 24658 (47.3%)
BNP: 939 (1.8%)
UKIP: 1305 (2.5%)
Independent: 1327 (2.5%)
Others: 175 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 3435 (6.6%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Caroline Ansell 20,934 39.6 -1.1
Liberal Democrat Stephen Lloyd 20,201 38.2 -9.1
UKIP Nigel Jones 6,139 11.6 +9.1
Labour Jake Lambert11 4,143 7.8 +3.0
Green Andrew Durling12 1,351 2.6 +2.6
Independent Paul Howard 139 0.3 +0.3
Majority 733 1.4
Turnout 52,907 67.6

Leave Vote: 57.5%

Sitting MP: Caroline Ansell (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold
Revised LibDem gain

Stephen Lloyd is restanding again despite saying he wouldn’t. But he’s a strong opponent for the Conservatives and should not be underestimated. However, the Leave vote in this constituency was substantial and it is likely Caroline Ansell will eat into the UKIP vote. This is the kind of seat where Theresa May herself may determine the result.

5. Hastings & Rye

2010 Result:
Conservative: 20468 (41.1%)
Labour: 18475 (37.1%)
Lib Dem: 7825 (15.7%)
BNP: 1310 (2.6%)
UKIP: 1397 (2.8%)
English Dem: 339 (0.7%)
MAJORITY: 1993 (4%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Amber Rudd6 22,686 44.5 +3.4
Labour Sarah Owen7 17,890 35.1 −2.0
UKIP Andrew Michael[disambiguation needed] 6,786 13.3 +10.5
Green Jake Bowers 1,951 3.8 +3.8
Liberal Democrat Nick Perry8 1,614 3.2 −12.5
Majority 4,796 9.4 +5.4
Turnout 50,927 68.0 +4.1

Leave Vote: 55.9%

Sitting MP: Amber Rudd (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Amber Rudd was heavily tipped to lose last time but she survived with a reasonable majority. She might have vocally supported Remain but her prominence as Home Secretary may do her some favours. I expect an increased majority.

6. Hove

2010 Result:
Conservative: 18294 (36.7%)
Labour: 16426 (33%)
Lib Dem: 11240 (22.6%)
Green: 2568 (5.2%)
UKIP: 1206 (2.4%)
Independent: 85 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 1868 (3.7%)

2015 Result:
Labour Peter Kyle11 22,082 42.3 +9.3
Conservative Graham Cox12 20,846 39.9 +3.2
Green Christopher Hawtree13 3,569 6.8 +1.7
UKIP Kevin Smith1415 3,265 6.3 +3.8
Liberal Democrat Peter Lambell16 1,861 3.6 −19.0
Independent Jenny Barnard-Langston 322 0.6 N/A
TUSC Dave Hill 144 0.3 N/A
Monster Raving Loony Dame Jon Dixon17 125 0.2 N/A
Majority 1,236 2.4
Turnout 52,214 71.0

Sitting MP: Peter Kyle (Lab)
Prediction: Conservative gain

This is a really interesting seat. Even though it has a narrow majority, it’s possible it could be held by Labour, even if there is a wider Tory landslide, especially if the Greens stand aside and concentrate their efforts in the Pavilion seat. However, the Momentum controlled Labour Party might not be too keen to camaign for the Blairite Peter Kyle. There’s no big UKIP vote for the Conservative to rely on, either. But logic points to a Tory gain.

7. Lewes

2010 Result:
Conservative: 18401 (36.7%)
Labour: 2508 (5%)
Lib Dem: 26048 (52%)
BNP: 594 (1.2%)
Green: 729 (1.5%)
UKIP: 1728 (3.4%)
Independent: 80 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 7647 (15.3%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Maria Caulfield 19,206 38.0 +1.3
Liberal Democrat Norman Baker 18,123 35.9 -16.1
UKIP Ray Finch 5,427 10.7 +7.3
Labour Lloyd Russell-Moyle 5,000 9.9 +4.9
Green Alfie Stirling 2,784 5.5 +4.1
Majority 1,083 2.1
Turnout 50,540 72.7 -0.2

Leave Vote: 47.1%

Sitting MP: Maria Caulfield (Con)
Prediction: LibDem gain
Revised: Con hold

If Norman Baker were restanding here I’d say the odds of a LibDem gain here were slightly higher than they appear now. Will the Greens give the LibDems a free run? If they do, and the UKIP vote stays strong, I’d say the LibDems will edge it. A lot of caveats there, but this is a tricky one to call.

8. Wealden

2010 Result:
Conservative: 31090 (56.6%)
Labour: 5266 (9.6%)
Lib Dem: 13911 (25.3%)
Green: 1383 (2.5%)
UKIP: 3319 (6%)
MAJORITY: 17179 (31.3%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Nusrat Ghani 32,508 57.0 +0.5
UKIP Peter Griffiths5 9,541 16.7 +10.7
Labour Solomon Curtis6 6,165 10.8 +1.2
Liberal Democrat Giles Goodall 5,180 9.1 −16.5
Green Mark Smith 7 3,623 6.4 +3.8
Majority 22,967 40.3
Turnout 57,017 71.0

Leave Vote: 52.8%

Sitting MP: Nus Ghani (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

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Iain has a blazing row with George Galloway over Margaret Thatcher (Part 2)

TalkSport, August 2009

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General Election Predictions

General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 28. Cambridgeshire

30 Apr 2017 at 10:15

CAMBRIDGESHIRE

Seats: 7
Current Political Makeup: Con 6, Lab 1
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 6, LibDem 1

1. Cambridge

2010 Result:
Conservative: 12829 (25.6%)
Labour: 12174 (24.3%)
Lib Dem: 19621 (39.1%)
Green: 3804 (7.6%)
UKIP: 1195 (2.4%)
Independent: 145 (0.3%)
Others: 362 (0.7%)
MAJORITY: 6792 (13.5%)

2015 Result:
Labour Daniel Zeichner 18,646 36.0 +11.7
Liberal Democrat Julian Huppert 18,047 34.9 −4.3
Conservative Chamali Fernando 8,117 15.7 −9.9
Green Rupert Read 4,109 7.9 +0.3
UKIP Patrick O’Flynn 2,668 5.2 +2.8
Rebooting Democracy Keith Garrett 187 0.4 N/A
Majority 599 1.2
Turnout 51,774 62.1 −2.9

Leave Vote: 26.3%

Sitting MP: Daniel Zeichner (Lab)
Prediction: LibDem gain

I thought Julian Huppert would hold on last time but I was wrong. He’s standing again and in the biggest Remain constituency in the country, if they don’t take this seat back they can’t hope to win elsewhere. I’d say this was the most nailed on LibDem gain of them all.

2. Huntingdon

2010 Result:
Conservative: 26516 (48.9%)
Labour: 5982 (11%)
Lib Dem: 15697 (28.9%)
Green: 652 (1.2%)
UKIP: 3258 (6%)
Independent: 1432 (2.6%)
Others: 729 (1.3%)
MAJORITY: 10819 (19.9%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Jonathan Djanogly 29,652 53.0 +4.2
Labour Nik Johnson9 10,248 18.3 +7.3
UKIP Paul Bullen9 9,473 16.9 +10.9
Liberal Democrat Rod Cantrill10 4,375 7.8 −21.1
Green Thomas MacLennan11 2,178 3.9 +2.7
Majority 19,404 34.7
Turnout 67.9

Sitting MP: Jonathan Djanogly
Prediction: Conservative hold

3. North East Cambridgeshire

2010 Result:
Conservative: 26862 (51.6%)
Labour: 9274 (17.8%)
Lib Dem: 10437 (20%)
BNP: 1747 (3.4%)
UKIP: 2791 (5.4%)
English Dem: 387 (0.7%)
Independent: 566 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 16425 (31.5%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Stephen Barclay 28,524 55.1 +3.5
UKIP Andrew Charalambous 11,650 22.5 +17.1
Labour Ken Rustidge 7,476 14.4 −3.4
Liberal Democrat Lucy Nethsingha 2,314 4.5 −15.6
Green Helen Scott-Daniels 1,816 3.5 N/A
Majority 16,874 32.6
Turnout 51,780 62.4

Leave Vote: 69.4%

Sitting MP: Stephen Barclay (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

4. North West Cambridgeshire

2010 Result:
Conservative: 29425 (50.5%)
Labour: 9877 (16.9%)
Lib Dem: 12748 (21.9%)
UKIP: 4826 (8.3%)
English Dem: 1407 (2.4%)
MAJORITY: 16677 (28.6%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Shailesh Vara 32,070 52.5 +2.0
UKIP Peter Reeve 5 12,275 20.1 +11.8
Labour Nick Thulbourn 5 10,927 17.9 +0.9
Liberal Democrat Nicholas Sandford6 3,479 5.7 −16.2
Green Nicola Day7 2,159 3.5 +3.5
Christian Peoples Fay Belham 190 0.3 +0.3
Majority 19,795 32.4 +3.8
Turnout 61,100 66.6 +1.0

Leave Vote: 57.0%

Sitting MP: Shailesh Vara (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

5. Peterborough

2010 Result:
Conservative: 18133 (40.4%)
Labour: 13272 (29.5%)
Lib Dem: 8816 (19.6%)
Green: 523 (1.2%)
UKIP: 3007 (6.7%)
English Dem: 770 (1.7%)
Independent: 406 (0.9%)
MAJORITY: 4861 (10.8%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Stewart Jackson 18,684 39.7 -0.7
Labour Lisa Forbes 16,759 35.6 +6.1
UKIP Mary Herdman 7,485 15.9 +9.2
Liberal Democrat Darren Fower 1,774 3.8 -15.9
Green Darren Bisby-Boyd 1,218 2.6 +1.4
Liberal Chris Ash 639 1.4 N/A
Independent John Fox 516 1.1 N/A
Majority 1,925 4.1 -6.7
Turnout 47,075 64.9 +1.0

Leave Vote:62.7%

Sitting MP: Stewart Jackson (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

A very narrow majority and Labour will have ambitions to take back this seat. UKIP are standing down which may help Stewart Jackson’s cause.

6. South Cambridgeshire

2010 Result:
Conservative: 27995 (47.4%)
Labour: 6024 (10.2%)
Lib Dem: 20157 (34.1%)
Green: 1039 (1.8%)
UKIP: 1873 (3.2%)
Independent: 1968 (3.3%)
MAJORITY: 7838 (13.3%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Heidi Allen 31,454 51.1 +3.7
Labour Dan Greef 10,860 17.6 +7.4
Liberal Democrat Sebastian Kindersley 9,368 15.2 −18.9
UKIP Marion Mason 6,010 9.8 +6.6
Green Simon Saggers 3,848 6.3 +4.5
Majority 20,594 33.5 +20.2
Turnout 61,540 73.1 −1.7

Leave Vote: 38.5%

Sitting MP: Heidi Allen (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

7. South East Cambridgeshire

2010 Result:
Conservative: 27629 (48%)
Labour: 4380 (7.6%)
Lib Dem: 21683 (37.6%)
Green: 766 (1.3%)
UKIP: 2138 (3.7%)
Independent: 517 (0.9%)
Others: 489 (0.8%)
MAJORITY: 5946 (10.3%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Lucy Frazer 8[n 3] 28,845 48.5 +0.5
Liberal Democrat Jonathan Chatfield 10 12,008 20.2 −17.5
Labour Huw Jones 11 9,013 15.1 +7.5
UKIP Deborah Rennie 12 6,593 11.1 +7.4
Green Clive Semmens 13 3,047 5.1 +3.8
Majority 16,837 28.3
Turnout 59,506 70.4 +1.1

Leave Vote: 45.3%

Sitting MP: Lucy Frazer (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

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LBC Book Club: Iain talks to David Jason

Iain talks to David Jason about his autobiography.

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General Election Predictions

General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 27. Lancashire

29 Apr 2017 at 20:59

LANCASHIRE

Seats: 16
Current Political Makeup: Con 8, Lab 8
Predicted Political Makeup after June 8: Con 12, Lab 3, LibDem 1
Revised: Con 12, Lab 4

1. Blackburn

2010 Result:
Conservative: 11895 (26.1%)
Labour: 21751 (47.8%)
Lib Dem: 6918 (15.2%)
BNP: 2158 (4.7%)
UKIP: 942 (2.1%)
Independent: 238 (0.5%)
Others: 1597 (3.5%)
MAJORITY: 9856 (21.7%)

2015 Result:
Kate Hollern Labour 24,762 56.3 +8.5
Bob Eastwood Conservative 12,002 27.3 +1.1
Dayle Taylor UKIP 6,280 14.3 +12.2
Gordon Lishman Liberal Democrat 955 2.2 −13.0
Majority: 12,760 (29.0%) +8.3
Swing: +3.7% from Con to Lab

Leave Vote: 55.9%

Sitting MP: Kate Hollern (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

2. Blackpool North & Cleveleys

2010 Result:
Conservative: 16964 (41.8%)
Labour: 14814 (36.5%)
Lib Dem: 5400 (13.3%)
BNP: 1556 (3.8%)
UKIP: 1659 (4.1%)
Others: 198 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 2150 (5.3%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Paul Maynard 17,508 44.4 +2.7
Labour Samuel Rushworth 14,168 36.0 -0.5
UKIP Simon Noble 5,823 14.8 +10.7
Liberal Democrat Sue Close 948 2.4 -10.9
Green John Warnock 889 2.3 +2.3
Northern James Walsh 57 0.1 0.1
Majority 3,340 8.5 +3.2
Turnout 39,393 63.1 +1.5

Leave Vote: 66.9%

Sitting MP: Paul Maynard (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

3. Blackpool South

2010 Result:
Conservative: 12597 (35.8%)
Labour: 14449 (41.1%)
Lib Dem: 5082 (14.4%)
BNP: 1482 (4.2%)
UKIP: 1352 (3.8%)
Others: 230 (0.7%)
MAJORITY: 1852 (5.3%)

2015 Result:
Labour Gordon Marsden 13,548 41.8 +0.7
Conservative Peter Anthony 10,963 33.8 −2.0
UKIP Peter Wood 5,613 17.3 +13.5
Green Duncan Royle 841 2.6 +2.6
Liberal Democrat Bill Greene 743 2.3 −12.2
Independent Andy Higgins 655 2.0 +2.0
Independent Lawrence Chard 73 0.2 +0.2
Majority 2,585 8.0 +2.7
Turnout 32,436 56.5 +0.7

Leave Vote: 67.8%
Sitting MP: Gordon Marsden (Lab)
Prediction: Conservative gain

If there’s anything like a certain gain for the Conservatives in the North West, this is it.

4. Burnley

2010 Result:
Conservative: 6950 (16.6%)
Labour: 13114 (31.3%)
Lib Dem: 14932 (35.7%)
BNP: 3747 (9%)
UKIP: 929 (2.2%)
Independent: 1876 (4.5%)
Others: 297 (0.7%)
MAJORITY: 1818 (4.3%)

2015 Result:
Labour Julie Cooper 14,951 37.6 +6.3
Liberal Democrat Gordon Birtwistle 11,707 29.5 −6.2
UKIP Tom Commis 6,864 17.3 +15.0
Conservative Sarah Cockburn-Price 5,374 13.5 −3.1
Green Mike Hargreaves 850 2.1 N/A
Majority 3,244 8.2
Turnout 39,746 61.6

Leave Vote: 64.7%

Sitting MP: Julie Cooper (Lab)
Prediction: Lib Dem gain
Revised: Lab hold

Gordon Birtwhistle surprised everyone by taking this seat in 2010, and he had the mother of all struggles to keep it in 2015. He failed then, but he might just regain it this time. The only fly in the ointment is the high Leave vote. I seem to remember that Birtwhistle is a bit of a LibDem Eurosceptic, though. I’m chancing my arm a bit here but I think he could do it, but it may come down to a few hundred votes.

5. Chorley

2010 Result:
Conservative: 18922 (38%)
Labour: 21515 (43.2%)
Lib Dem: 6957 (14%)
UKIP: 2021 (4.1%)
Independent: 359 (0.7%)
MAJORITY: 2593 (5.2%)

2015 Result:
Labour Lindsay Hoyle 23,322 45.1 +1.9
Conservative Robert Loughenbury 18,792 36.3 −1.7
UKIP Mark Smith 6,995 13.5 +9.5
Liberal Democrat Stephen Fenn 1,354 2.6 −11.4
Green Alistair Straw 1,111 2.1 N/A
Independent Adrian Maudsley 138 0.3 N/A
Majority 4,530 8.8
Turnout 51,712 69.2

Leave Vote: 56.7%

Sitting MP: Lindsay Hoyle (Lab)
Prediction: Conservative gain

Not a safe seat, and has been Tory in recent history. However, Lindsay Hoyle is a popular MP locally and he may be more difficult to shift than some think. However, if my predictions on the UKIP vote happen and the Labour vote diminishes in any way, I’m afraid there will have to be a different successor to John Bercow. Which would be a shame.

6. Fylde

2010 Result:
Conservative: 22826 (52.2%)
Labour: 8624 (19.7%)
Lib Dem: 9641 (22.1%)
Green: 654 (1.5%)
UKIP: 1945 (4.5%)
MAJORITY: 13185 (30.2%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Mark Menzies 21,406 49.1 −3.1
Labour Jed Sullivan 8,182 18.8 −1.0
UKIP Paul White 5,569 12.8 +8.3
Independent Mike Hill 5,166 11.9 N/A
Liberal Democrat Freddie van Mierlo 1,623 3.7 −18.3
Green Bob Dennett 1,381 3.2 +1.7
Northern Elizabeth Clarkson 230 0.5 N/A
Majority 13,224 30.4 +0.2
Turnout 43,557 66.3 +0.0

Leave Vote: 56.7%

Sitting MP: Mark Menzies (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

7. Hyndburn

2010 Result:
Conservative: 14441 (33.8%)
Labour: 17531 (41.1%)
Lib Dem: 5033 (11.8%)
BNP: 2137 (5%)
Green: 463 (1.1%)
UKIP: 1481 (3.5%)
English Dem: 413 (1%)
Independent: 378 (0.9%)
Others: 795 (1.9%)
MAJORITY: 3090 (7.2%)

2015 Result:
Labour Graham Jones 18,076 42.1 +1.1
Conservative Kevin Horkin 13,676 31.9 -2.0
UKIP Janet Brown 9,154 21.3 +17.9
Green Kerry Gormley 1,122 2.6 +1.5
Liberal Democrat Alison Firth 859 2.0 -9.8
Majority 4,400 10.3
Turnout 42,887 62.8 -0.7

Leave Vote: 65.8%

Sitting MP: Graham Jones (Lab)
Prediction: Conservative gain

A traditional Tory/Labour marginal the Tories last held this seat in the 1980s and expected to win it back in 2010. Another of those seats that goes Tory in a very good year.

8. Lancaster & Fleetwood

2010 Result:
Conservative: 15404 (36.1%)
Labour: 15071 (35.3%)
Lib Dem: 8167 (19.1%)
BNP: 938 (2.2%)
Green: 1888 (4.4%)
UKIP: 1020 (2.4%)
Independent: 213 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 333 (0.8%)

2015 Result:
Labour Cat Smith 17,643 42.3 +7.0
Conservative Eric Ollerenshaw 16,378 39.2 +3.2
UKIP Matthew Atkins 4,060 9.7 +7.3
Green Chris Coates 2,093 5.0 +0.6
Liberal Democrat Robin Long 1,390 3.3 −15.8
Northern Harold Elletson 174 0.4 +0.4
Majority 1,265 3.0
Turnout 41,738 68.6 +7.5

Leave Vote: 52.0%

Sitting MP: Cat Smith (Lab)
Prediction: Conservative gain

This was won by the Corbynista MP Cat Smith in 2015 but her tenure is to be short lived. Previous MP Eric Ollerenshaw is fighting the seat again.

9. Morecambe & Lunesdale

2010 Result:
Conservative: 18035 (41.5%)
Labour: 17169 (39.5%)
Lib Dem: 5791 (13.3%)
Green: 598 (1.4%)
UKIP: 1843 (4.2%)
MAJORITY: 866 (2%)

2015 Result:
Conservative David Morris 19,691 45.5 +4.0
Labour Amina Lone 15,101 34.9 −4.6
UKIP Steven Ogden 5,358 12.4 +8.1
Liberal Democrat Matthew Severn 1,612 3.7 −9.6
Green Phil Chandler 1,395 3.2 +1.8
Independent Michael Dawson 85 0.2 +0.2
Majority 4,590 10.6 +8.6
Turnout 43,242 65.0 +2.0

Leave Vote: 58.2

Sitting MP: David Morris (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

10. Pendle

2010 Result:
Conservative: 17512 (38.9%)
Labour: 13927 (30.9%)
Lib Dem: 9095 (20.2%)
BNP: 2894 (6.4%)
UKIP: 1476 (3.3%)
Christian: 141 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 3585 (8%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Andrew Stephenson 20,978 47.2 +8.3
Labour Azhar Ali 15,525 34.9 +4.0
UKIP Michael Waddington 5,415 12.2 +8.9
Liberal Democrat Graham Roach 1,487 3.3 −16.8
Green Laura Fisk 1,043 2.3 +2.3
Majority 5,453 12.3 +4.3
Turnout 44,448 68.7 +0.9

Leave Vote: 63.2%

Sitting MP: Andrew Stephenson (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

11. Preston

2010 Result:
Conservative: 7060 (21.7%)
Labour: 15668 (48.2%)
Lib Dem: 7935 (24.4%)
UKIP: 1462 (4.5%)
Christian: 272 (0.8%)
Independent: 108 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 7733 (23.8%)

2015 Result:
Labour Co-op Mark Hendrick 18,755 56.0 +7.8
Conservative Richard Holden 6,688 20.0 −1.7
UKIP James Barker 5,139 15.4 +10.9
Green Gemma Christie 1,643 4.9 N/A
Liberal Democrat Jo Barton 1,244 3.7 −20.7
Majority 12,067 36.1 +12.3
Turnout 33,469 55.8 +3.8

Leave Vote: 55.7%

Sitting MP: Mark Hendrick (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

12. Ribble Valley

2010 Result:
Conservative: 26298 (50.3%)
Labour: 11529 (22%)
Lib Dem: 10732 (20.5%)
UKIP: 3496 (6.7%)
Others: 232 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 14769 (28.2%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Nigel Evans 25,404 48.6 −1.7
Labour David Hinder 11,798 22.6 +0.5
UKIP Shirley Parkinson 8,250 15.8 +9.1
Liberal Democrat Jackie Pearcey 2,756 5.3 −15.2
Green Graham Sowter 2,193 4.2 +4.2
Independent David Brass 1,498 2.9 N/A
Independent Grace Astley 288 0.6 N/A
Independent Tony Johnson 56 0.1 −0.3
Majority 13,606 26.0 −2.3
Turnout 52,243 67.1 +0.1

Leave Vote: 58.7%

Sitting MP: Nigel Evans (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

13. Rossendale & Darwen

2010 Result:
Conservative: 19691 (41.8%)
Labour: 15198 (32.2%)
Lib Dem: 8541 (18.1%)
UKIP: 1617 (3.4%)
English Dem: 663 (1.4%)
Independent: 113 (0.2%)
Others: 1305 (2.8%)
MAJORITY: 4493 (9.5%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Jake Berry 22,847 46.6 +4.8
Labour Will Straw 17,193 35.1 +2.8
UKIP Clive Balchin 6,862 14.0 +10.6
Green Karen Pollard-Rylance 1,046 2.1 N/A
Liberal Democrat Afzal Anwar 806 1.6 −16.5
Independent Kevin Scranage 122 0.2 N/A
TUSC Simon Thomas 103 0.2 N/A
Northern Shaun Hargreaves 45 0.1 N/A
Majority 5,654 11.5 +2.0
Turnout 49,024 66.4 +1.8

Leave Vote: 58.9%

Sitting MP: Jake Berry (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

14. South Ribble

2010 Result:
Conservative: 23396 (45.5%)
Labour: 17842 (34.7%)
Lib Dem: 7271 (14.1%)
BNP: 1054 (2%)
UKIP: 1895 (3.7%)
MAJORITY: 5554 (10.8%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Seema Kennedy 24,313 46.4 +1.0
Labour Veronica Bennett 18,368 35.1 +0.4
UKIP David Gallagher 7,377 14.1 +10.4
Liberal Democrat Sue McGuire 2,312 4.4 −9.7
Majority 5,945 11.4 +0.6
Turnout 52,370 68.5 +0.6

Leave Vote: 56.6%

Sitting MP: Seema Kennedy (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

15. West Lancashire

2010 Result:
Conservative: 17540 (36.2%)
Labour: 21883 (45.1%)
Lib Dem: 6573 (13.6%)
Green: 485 (1%)
UKIP: 1775 (3.7%)
Others: 217 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 4343 (9%)

2015 Result:
Labour Rosie Cooper 24,474 49.3 +4.1
Conservative Paul Greenall 16,114 32.4 −3.7
UKIP Jack Sen1 6,058 12.2 +8.5
Green Ben Basson 1,582 3.2 +2.2
Liberal Democrat Daniel Lewis 1,298 2.6 −10.9
Independent David Braid 150 0.3 −0.1
Majority 8,360 16.8 +7.8
Turnout 49,676 70.0 +6.2

Leave Vote: 55.0%

Sitting MP: Rosie Cooper (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Ken Hind held this seat for the Tories from 1983-92. Might fall in a big majority, but I’ll stick with a Labour gain for now.

16. Wyre & Preston North

2010 Result:
Conservative: 26877 (52.4%)
Labour: 10932 (21.3%)
Lib Dem: 11033 (21.5%)
UKIP: 2466 (4.8%)
MAJORITY: 15844 (30.9%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Ben Wallace 26,528 53.2 +0.8
Labour Ben Whittingham 12,377 24.8 +3.5
UKIP Kate Walsh 6,577 13.2 +8.4
Liberal Democrat John Potter 2,712 5.4 -16.1
Green Anne Power 1,699 3.4 +3.4
Majority 14,151 28.4 -2.5
Turnout 49,893 70.6 -1.5

Leave Vote: 54.2%

Sitting MP: Ben Wallace (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

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General Election Predictions

General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 26. London - East

29 Apr 2017 at 20:26

Seats: 8
Current Political Makeup: Con 2, Lab 6
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 3, Lab 5

Barking

2010 Result:
Conservative: 8073 (17.8%)
Labour: 24628 (54.3%)
Lib Dem: 3719 (8.2%)
BNP: 6620 (14.6%)
Green: 317 (0.7%)
UKIP: 1300 (2.9%)
Christian: 482 (1.1%)
Independent: 77 (0.2%)
Others: 127 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 16555 (36.5%)

2015 Result:
Labour Margaret Hodge 24,826 57.7 +3.4
UKIP Roger Gravett 9,554 22.2 +19.3
Conservative Mina Rahman13 7,019 16.3 −1.5
Green Tony Rablen 879 2.0 +1.3
Liberal Democrat Peter Wilcock 562 1.3 −6.9
TUSC Joseph Mambuliya14 183 0.4 N/A
Majority 15,272 35.5 -1.0
Turnout 43,023 58.2 -3.2

Leave Vote: 59.6%

Sitting MP: Margaret Hodge (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Bethnal Green & Bow

2010 Result:
Conservative: 7071 (13.9%)
Labour: 21784 (42.9%)
Lib Dem: 10210 (20.1%)
BNP: 1405 (2.8%)
Green: 856 (1.7%)
Respect: 8532 (16.8%)
Independent: 277 (0.5%)
Others: 593 (1.2%)
MAJORITY: 11574 (22.8%)

2015 Result:
Rushanara Ali Labour 32,387 61.2 +18.3
Matthew Smith Conservative 8,070 15.2 +1.3
Alistair Polson Green 4,906 9.3 +7.6
Pauline McQueen UKIP 3,219 6.1 N/A
Teena Lashmore Liberal Democrat 2,395 4.5 −15.6
Glyn Robbins TUSC 949 1.8 N/A
M Rowshan Ali Communities United 356 0.7 N/A
Jonathan Dewey CISTA 303 0.6 N/A
Alasdair Henderson15 Whig 203 0.4 N/A
Elliot Ball The 30–50 Coalition 78 0.1 N/A
Jason Pavlou Red Flag Anti-Corruption 58 0.1 N/A
Majority: 24,317 (45.9%) +23.1
Swing: 8.5% from Con to Lab

Leave Vote: 30.9%

Sitting MP: Rushanara Ali (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Dagenham & Rainham

2010 Result:
Conservative: 15183 (34.3%)
Labour: 17813 (40.3%)
Lib Dem: 3806 (8.6%)
BNP: 4952 (11.2%)
Green: 296 (0.7%)
UKIP: 1569 (3.5%)
Christian: 305 (0.7%)
Independent: 308 (0.7%)
MAJORITY: 2630 (5.9%)

2015 Result:
Labour Jon Cruddas 17,830 41.4 +1.1
UKIP Peter Harris 12,850 29.8 +26.3
Conservative Julie Marson 10,492 24.4 -10.0
Green Kate Simpson8 806 1.9 +1.2
Liberal Democrat Denise Capstick910 717 1.7 -6.9
BNP Tess Culnane 151 0.4 -10.8
Independent Terry London 133 0.3 +0.3
English Democrat Kim Gandy 71 0.2 +0.2
Majority 4,980 11.6 +5.7
Turnout 43,050 62.3 -0.9

Leave Vote: 70.34

Sitting MP: Jon Cruddas (Lab)
Prediction: Conservative gain

This seat has threatened to go Tory for some time and in 2010 it nearly did. In 2015 UKIP surprised everyone by coming second. Their vote is likely to diminish massively in this election to the benefit of the Conservatives.

East Ham

2010 Result:
Conservative: 7645 (15.2%)
Labour: 35471 (70.4%)
Lib Dem: 5849 (11.6%)
Green: 586 (1.2%)
English Dem: 822 (1.6%)
MAJORITY: 27826 (55.2%)

2015 Result:
Labour Stephen Timms 40,563 77.6 +7.2
Conservative Samir Jassal 6,311 12.1 −3.1
UKIP Daniel Oxley 2,622 5.0 N/A
Green Tamsin Omond7 1,299 2.5 +1.3
Liberal Democrat David Thorpe 856 1.6 −10.0
Communities United Mohammed Aslam 409 0.8 N/A
TUSC Lois Austin 8 230 0.4 N/A
Majority 34,252 65.5 +10.3
Turnout 52,290 59.8 +4.2

Leave Vote: 46.3%

Sitting MP: Stephen Timms (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Hackney South & Shoreditch

2010 Result:
Conservative: 5800 (13.5%)
Labour: 23888 (55.7%)
Lib Dem: 9600 (22.4%)
Green: 1493 (3.5%)
UKIP: 651 (1.5%)
Liberal: 539 (1.3%)
Christian: 434 (1%)
Independent: 95 (0.2%)
Others: 358 (0.8%)
MAJORITY: 14288 (33.3%)

2015 Result:
Labour Co-op Meg Hillier 30,633 64.4 +8.7
Conservative Jack Tinley 6,420 13.5 0.0
Green Charlotte George 5,519 11.6 +8.6
Liberal Democrat Ben Mathis 2,186 4.6 −17.8
UKIP Angus Small 1,818 3.8 +2.3
TUSC Brian Debus 302 0.6 +0.6
CISTA Paul Birch 297 0.6 +0.6
Christian Peoples Taiwo Adewuyi 236 0.5 +0.5
Independent Russell Shaw Higgs 78 0.2 +0.2
Workers Revolutionary Bill Rogers 63 0.1 +0.1
Campaign Gordon Shrigley7 28 0.1 +0.1
Majority 24,213 50.9 +19.3
Turnout 47,580 56.0 −2.9

Leave Vote: 22.8%

Sitting MP: Meg Hillier (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Hornchurch & Upminster

2010 Result:
Conservative: 27469 (51.4%)
Labour: 11098 (20.8%)
Lib Dem: 7426 (13.9%)
BNP: 3421 (6.4%)
Green: 542 (1%)
UKIP: 2848 (5.3%)
Christian: 281 (0.5%)
Independent: 305 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 16371 (30.7%

2015 Result:
Conservative Angela Watkinson 27,051 49.0 -2.5
UKIP Lawrence Webb 13,977 25.3 +20.0
Labour Paul McGeary 11,103 20.1 -0.7
Liberal Democrat Jonathan Mitchell 1,501 2.7 -11.2
Green Melanie Collins 1,411 2.6 +1.5
BNP Paul Borg 193 0.3 -6.1
Majority 13,074 23.7 -11.25
Turnout 55,236 69.6 +1.6

Leave Vote: 69.8%

Sitting MP: Angela Watkinson (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Romford

2010 Result:
Conservative: 26031 (56%)
Labour: 9077 (19.5%)
Lib Dem: 5572 (12%)
BNP: 2438 (5.2%)
Green: 447 (1%)
UKIP: 2050 (4.4%)
English Dem: 603 (1.3%)
Independent: 151 (0.3%)
Others: 112 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 16954 (36.5%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Andrew Rosindell 25,067 51.0 −5.0
UKIP Gerard Batten 11,208 22.8 +18.4
Labour Sam Gould 10,268 20.9 +1.4
Liberal Democrat Ian Sanderson7 1,413 2.9 −9.1
Green Lorna Tooley8 1,222 2.5 +1.5
Majority 13,859 28.2 −8.3
Turnout 49,178 67.7 +2.4

2015 Result:
Conservative Andrew Rosindell 25,067 51.0 −5.0
UKIP Gerard Batten 11,208 22.8 +18.4
Labour Sam Gould 10,268 20.9 +1.4
Liberal Democrat Ian Sanderson7 1,413 2.9 −9.1
Green Lorna Tooley8 1,222 2.5 +1.5
Majority 13,859 28.2 −8.3
Turnout 49,178 67.7 +2.4

Leave Vote: 67.4%

Sitting MP: Andrew Rosindell
Prediction: Conservative hold

West Ham

2010 Result:
Conservative: 6888 (14.7%)
Labour: 29422 (62.7%)
Lib Dem: 5392 (11.5%)
Green: 645 (1.4%)
UKIP: 766 (1.6%)
Independent: 1245 (2.7%)
Others: 2593 (5.5%)
MAJORITY: 22534 (48%)

2015 Result:
Labour Lyn Brown 36,132 68.4 +5.8
Conservative Festus Akinbusoye 8,146 15.4 +0.8
UKIP Jamie McKenzie12 3,950 7.5 +5.9
Green Rachel Collinson13 2,651 5.0 +3.6
Liberal Democrat Paul Reynolds14 1,430 2.7 -8.8
Christian Peoples Andy Uzoka 369 0.7 -2.1
Communities United Cydatty Bogie 115 0.2 +0.2
Majority 27,986 53.0 +5.0
Turnout 52,793 58.2 +3.2

Leave Vote: 48%

Sitting MP: Lyn Brown (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

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General Election Predictions

General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 25. Merseyside

29 Apr 2017 at 19:14

MERSEYSIDE

Seats: 15
Current Political Makeup: Lab 14, LibDem 1
Predicted Political Makeup after June 8: Con 1, Lab 14

1. Birkenhead

2010 Result:
Conservative: 6687 (18.9%)
Labour: 22082 (62.5%)
Lib Dem: 6554 (18.6%)
MAJORITY: 15395 (43.6%)

2015 Result:
Labour Frank Field 26,468 67.6 +5.1
Conservative Clark Vasey 5,816 14.9 -4.1
UKIP Wayne Harling 3,838 9.8 +9.8
Green Kenny Peers 1,626 4.2 +4.2
Liberal Democrat Allan Brame 1,396 3.6 -15.0
Majority 20,652 52.8 +9.2
Turnout 39,144 62.7 +5.1

Leave Vote: 52.7%

Sitting MP: Frank Field (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

2. Bootle

2010 Result:
Conservative: 3678 (8.9%)
Labour: 27426 (66.4%)
Lib Dem: 6245 (15.1%)
BNP: 942 (2.3%)
UKIP: 2514 (6.1%)
TUSC: 472 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 21181 (51.3%)

2015 Result:
Labour Peter Dowd 33,619 74.5 +8.0
UKIP Paul Nuttall 4,915 10.9 +4.8
Conservative Jade Marsden 3,639 8.1 -0.9
Green Lisa Tallis 1,501 3.3 N/A
Liberal Democrat David Newman 978 2.2 -13.0
TUSC Peter Glover 500 1.1 0.0
Majority 28,704 63.6 +12.3
Turnout 45,152 64.4 +6.6

Leave Vote: 54.8%

Sitting MP: Peter Dowd (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

3. Garston & Halewood

2010 Result:
Conservative: 6908 (16.1%)
Labour: 25493 (59.5%)
Lib Dem: 8616 (20.1%)
UKIP: 1540 (3.6%)
Respect: 268 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 16877 (39.4%)

2015 Result:
Labour Maria Eagle 33,839 69.1 +9.6
Conservative Martin Williams 6,693 13.7 -2.5
UKIP Carl Schears 4,482 9.2 +5.6
Liberal Democrat Anna Martin 2,279 4.7 -15.5
Green Will Ward 1,690 3.5 +3.5
Majority 27,146 55.4 +16.0
Turnout 48,983 66.1 +6.0

Leave Vote: 47.96%

Sitting MP: Maria Eagle (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

4. Knowsley

2010 Result:
Conservative: 4004 (9%)
Labour: 31650 (70.9%)
Lib Dem: 5964 (13.4%)
BNP: 1895 (4.2%)
UKIP: 1145 (2.6%)
MAJORITY: 25686 (57.5%)

2015 Result:
Labour George Howarth 39,628 78.1 +7.2
UKIP Louise Bours 4,973 9.8 +7.2
Conservative Alice Bramall 3,367 6.6 -2.3
Liberal Democrat Carl Cashman 1,490 2.9 -10.4
Green Vikki Gregorich 1,270 2.5 N/A
Majority 34,655 68.3 +10.8
Turnout 50,728 64.1 +8.0

Leave Vote: 52.34%

Sitting MP: George Howarth (Lab)
Prediction: :Labour hold

5. Liverpool Riverside

2010 Result:
Conservative: 4243 (10.9%)
Labour: 22998 (59.3%)
Lib Dem: 8825 (22.7%)
BNP: 706 (1.8%)
Green: 1355 (3.5%)
UKIP: 674 (1.7%)
MAJORITY: 14173 (36.5%)

2015 Result:
Labour Co-op Louise Ellman 29,835 67.4 +8.1
Green Martin Dobson 5,372 12.1 +8.6
Conservative Jackson Ng 4,245 9.6 −1.3
UKIP Joe Chiffers 2,510 5.7 +3.9
Liberal Democrat Paul Childs 1,719 3.9 −18.9
TUSC Tony Mulhearn 582 1.3 +1.3
Majority 24,463 55.3 +18.8
Turnout 44,263 62.4 +10.3

Leave Vote: 27.3%

Sitting MP: Louise Ellman (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

6. Liverpool Walton

2010 Result:
Conservative: 2241 (6.5%)
Labour: 24709 (72%)
Lib Dem: 4891 (14.2%)
BNP: 1104 (3.2%)
UKIP: 898 (2.6%)
TUSC: 195 (0.6%)
Others: 297 (0.9%)
MAJORITY: 19818 (57.7%)

2015 Result:
Labour Steve Rotheram 31,222 81.3 +9.3
UKIP Steven Flatman 3,445 9.0 +6.4
Conservative Norsheen Bhatti 1,802 4.7 -1.8
Green Jonathan Clatworthy 956 2.5 N/A
Liberal Democrat Patrick Moloney 899 2.3 −11.9
Independent Alexander Karran 56 0.1 N/A
The Pluralist Party Jonathan Bishop 23 0.1 N/A
Majority 27,777 72.3 +14.6
Turnout 38,403 61.1 +6.3

Leave Vote: 52.2%

Sitting MP: Steve Rotheram (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

7. Liverpool Wavertree

2010 Result:
Conservative: 2830 (7.5%)
Labour: 20132 (53.1%)
Lib Dem: 12965 (34.2%)
BNP: 150 (0.4%)
Green: 598 (1.6%)
UKIP: 890 (2.3%)
Independent: 149 (0.4%)
Others: 200 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 7167 (18.9%)

2015 Result:
Labour Co-op Luciana Berger 28,401 69.3 +16.2
Conservative James Pearson 4,098 10.0 +2.5
UKIP Adam Heatherington 3,375 8.2 +5.9
Liberal Democrat Leo Evans 2,454 6.0 -28.2
Green Peter Cranie 2,140 5.2 +3.6
TUSC David Walsh 362 0.9 New
Independent Niamh McCarthy 144 0.4 New
Majority 24,303 59.3 +40.4
Turnout 40,974 66.4 +5.8

Leave Vote: 35.26%

Sitting MP: Luciana Berger (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

8. Liverpool West Derby

2010 Result:
Conservative: 3311 (9.3%)
Labour: 22953 (64.1%)
Lib Dem: 4486 (12.5%)
UKIP: 1093 (3.1%)
Liberal: 3327 (9.3%)
Others: 614 (1.7%)
MAJORITY: 18467 (51.6%)

2015 Result:
Labour Co-op Stephen Twigg 30,842 75.2 +11.0
UKIP Neil Miney 3,475 8.5 +5.4
Conservative Ed McRandal 2,710 6.6 −2.6
Liberal Steve Radford 2,049 5.0 −4.3
Green Rebecca Lawson 996 2.4 N/A
Liberal Democrat Paul Twigger 959 2.3 −10.2
Majority 27,367 66.7 +16.1
Turnout 41,031 64.2 +7.5

Leave Vote: 49.82%

Sitting MP: Stephen Twigg (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

9. Sefton Central

2010 Result:
Conservative: 16445 (33.9%)
Labour: 20307 (41.9%)
Lib Dem: 9656 (19.9%)
UKIP: 2055 (4.2%)
MAJORITY: 3862 (8%)

2015 Result:
Labour Bill Esterson 26,359 53.8 +11.9
Conservative Valerie Allen 14,513 29.6 -4.3
UKIP Tim Power 4,879 10.0 +5.7
Liberal Democrat Paula Keaveney 2,086 4.3 -15.7
Green Lindsay Melia 1,184 2.4 +2.4
Majority 11,846 24.2
Turnout 49,021 72.4

Sitting MP: Bill Esterson (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

10. Southport

2010 Result:
Conservative: 15683 (35.8%)
Labour: 4116 (9.4%)
Lib Dem: 21707 (49.6%)
UKIP: 2251 (5.1%)
MAJORITY: 6024 (13.8%)

2015 Result:
Liberal Democrat John Pugh 13,652 31.0 −18.7
Conservative Damien Moore 12,330 28.0 −7.9
Labour Liz Savage 8,468 19.2 +9.8
UKIP Terry Durrance 7,429 16.8 +11.7
Green Laurence Rankin 1,230 2.8 N/A
Southport Party Jacqueline Barlow 992 2.2 N/A
Majority 1,322 3.0 -10.8
Turnout 44,101 65.5 +0.4

Leave Vote: 46.3%

Sitting MP: John Pugh (LibDem)
Prediction: Conservative gain

*This seat has alternated between the LibDems and Conservatives for years, although the last time the Tories won it was in 1992. Labour are nowhere here. The reason why I think the Tories may win this time is that the UKIP vote shot up last time as their expense. If half that vote returns the LibDems will find it very difficult to retain this seat.

11. St Helens North

2010 Result:
Conservative: 9940 (22.3%)
Labour: 23041 (51.7%)
Lib Dem: 8992 (20.2%)
UKIP: 2100 (4.7%)
Others: 483 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 13101 (29.4%)

2015 Result:
Labour Conor McGinn 26,378 57.0 +5.3
Conservative Paul Richardson 9,087 19.6 −2.7
UKIP Ian Smith 6,983 15.1 +10.4
Liberal Democrat Denise Aspinall 2,046 4.4 −15.8
Green Elizabeth Ward 1,762 3.8 +3.8
Majority 17,291 37.4 +8.0
Turnout 46,256 61.5 +1.7

Leave Vote: 58.39%

Sitting MP: Conor McGinn (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

12. St Helens South & Whiston

2010 Result:
Conservative: 8209 (17.8%)
Labour: 24364 (52.9%)
Lib Dem: 10242 (22.2%)
BNP: 2040 (4.4%)
UKIP: 1226 (2.7%)
MAJORITY: 14122 (30.6%)

2015 Result:
Labour Marie Rimmer 28,950 59.8 +6.9
Conservative Gillian Keegan 7,707 15.9 −1.9
UKIP John Beirne 6,766 14.0 +11.3
Liberal Democrat Brian Spencer 2,737 5.7 −16.6
Green James Chan 2,237 4.6 +4.6
Majority 21,243 43.9 +13.3
Turnout 48,397 62.3 +3.2

Leave Vote: 56.1%

Sitting MP: Marie Rimmer (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

13. Wallasey

2010 Result:
Conservative: 13071 (31.4%)
Labour: 21578 (51.8%)
Lib Dem: 5693 (13.7%)
UKIP: 1205 (2.9%)
Independent: 107 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 8507 (20.4%)

2015 Result:
Labour Angela Eagle 26,176 60.4 +8.6
Conservative Chris Clarkson 9,828 22.7 -8.7
UKIP Geoffrey Caton 5,063 11.7 +8.8
Green Julian Pratt 1,288 3.0 +3.0
Liberal Democrat Kris Brown 1,011 2.3 -11.3
Majority 16,348 37.7 +17.3
Turnout 43,366 66.2 +3.0

Leave Vote: 52.5%

Sitting MP: Angela Eagle (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Hard to believe this was ever a Conservative seat.

14. Wirral South

2010 Result:
Conservative: 15745 (39.5%)
Labour: 16276 (40.8%)
Lib Dem: 6611 (16.6%)
UKIP: 1274 (3.2%)
MAJORITY: 531 (1.3%)

2015 Result:
Labour Alison McGovern 20,165 48.2 +7.4
Conservative John Bell 15,566 37.2 −2.2
UKIP David Scott 3,737 8.9 +5.7
Liberal Democrat Elizabeth Jewkes 1,474 3.5 −13.0
Green Paul Cartlidge 895 2.1 +2.1
Majority 4,599 11.0
Turnout 41,837 73.5

Leave Vote: 45.5%

Sitting MP: Alison McGovern (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

A very difficult seat to call. The LibDem vote last time went to Labour. Could some of it return this time? The UKIP vote here is not huge. Alison McGovern has got a good reputation and if anyone can hold this seat I expect her to.

15. Wirral West

2010 Result:
Conservative: 16726 (42.5%)
Labour: 14290 (36.3%)
Lib Dem: 6630 (16.8%)
UKIP: 899 (2.3%)
Independent: 506 (1.3%)
Others: 321 (0.8%)
MAJORITY: 2436 (6.2%)

2015 Result:
Labour Margaret Greenwood 18,898 45.1 +8.9
Conservative Esther McVey 18,481 44.2 +1.7
UKIP Hilary Jones 2,772 6.6 +4.3
Liberal Democrat Peter Reisdorf 1,433 3.4 −13.4
Independent David James 274 0.7 -0.1
Majority 417 1.0
Turnout 41,858 75.6

Leave Vote: 42.6%

Sitting MP: Margaret Greenwood (Lab)
Prediction: Con gain
Revised: Lab hold

Esther McVey’s former seat. I expect it to return to the Tory fold.

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BBC Radio Berkshire: Andrew Peach interviews Iain about Bracknell

October 2009

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