General Election Predictions

General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 15. County Durham

27 Apr 2017 at 09:11

COUNTY DURHAM

Seats: 7
Current Political Makeup: Lab 7
Predicted Political Makeup after June 8: Con 2, Lab 5

1. Bishop Auckland

2010 Result:
Conservative: 10805 (26.3%)
Labour: 16023 (39%)
Lib Dem: 9189 (22.3%)
BNP: 2036 (4.9%)
UKIP: 1119 (2.7%)
Others: 1964 (4.8%)
MAJORITY: 5218 (12.7%)

2015 Result:
Labour Helen Goodman 16,307 41.4 +2.4
Conservative Christopher Adams 12,799 32.5 +6.2
UKIP Rhys Burriss 7,015 17.8 +15.1
Liberal Democrat Stephen White 1,723 4.4 -18.0
Green Thom Robinson 1,545 3.9 N/A
Majority 3,508 8.9
Turnout 38,389 59.6

Leave Vote: 63.28%

Sitting MP: Helen Goodman (Lab)
Prediction: Conservative gain

This seat’s Labour majority was cut substantially last time mainly because Labour voters went to UKIP. They’re unlikely to return to the fold this time given that this constituency had a very high Leave vote. If Brexit is important to them, many of them may vote Conservative. The big question is how many. Enough, is my prediction.

2. City of Durham

2010 Result:
Conservative: 6146 (13.3%)
Labour: 20496 (44.3%)
Lib Dem: 17429 (37.7%)
BNP: 1153 (2.5%)
UKIP: 856 (1.9%)
Independent: 172 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 3067 (6.6%)

2015 Result:
Labour Roberta Blackman-Woods 21,596 47.3 +2.9
Conservative Rebecca Coulson14 10,157 22.2 +8.9
UKIP Liam Clark 5,232 11.4 +9.6
Liberal Democrat Craig Martin15 5,183 11.3 −26.3
Green Jonathan Elmer16 2,687 5.9 N/A
Independent John Marshall17 649 1.4 N/A
Independent Jon Collings 195 0.4 N/A
Majority 11,439 25.0
Turnout 45,699 66.5

Leave Vote: 48.09%

Sitting MP: Roberta Blackman-Woods (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

3. Darlington

2010 Result:
Conservative: 13503 (31.5%)
Labour: 16891 (39.4%)
Lib Dem: 10046 (23.4%)
BNP: 1262 (2.9%)
UKIP: 1194 (2.8%)
MAJORITY: 3388 (7.9%)

2015 Result:
Labour Jenny Chapman 17,637 42.9 +3.5
Conservative Peter Cuthbertson6 14,479 35.2 +3.7
UKIP David Hodgson7 5,392 13.1 +10.3
Liberal Democrat Anne-Marie Curry8 1,966 4.8 -18.6
Green Michael Cherrington9 1,444 3.5 N/A
TUSC Alan Docherty 10 223 0.5 N/A
Majority 3,158 7.7 -0.2
Turnout 41,141 62.5 +0.6

Leave Vote: 59.04%

Sitting MP: Jenny Chapman (Lab)
Prediction: Conservative gain

Michael Fallon was MP here between 1983 and 1992 and there are plenty of Tories who expected to win it back in 2010 and 2015. It didn’t happen, but this seat goes Tory in the event of a big Tory victory. They have a strong candidate in Peter Cuthbertson, who fought the seat last time and is fighting again. It will be a shock if he doesn’t pull it off.

4. Easington

2010 Result:
Conservative: 4790 (13.7%)
Labour: 20579 (58.9%)
Lib Dem: 5597 (16%)
BNP: 2317 (6.6%)
UKIP: 1631 (4.7%)
MAJORITY: 14982 (42.9%)

2015 Result:
Labour Grahame Morris 21,132 61.0 +2.1
UKIP Jonathan Arnott 6,491 18.7 +14.1
Conservative Chris Hampsheir 4,478 12.9 -0.8
Liberal Democrat Luke Armstrong 834 2.4 -13.6
North East Party Susan McDonnell5 810 2.3 N/A
Green Martie Warin 733 2.1 N/A
Socialist (GB) Steve Colborn 6 146 0.4 N/A
Majority 14,641 42.3 -0.6
Turnout 34,624 56.1 +1.4

Leave Vote: 68.79

Sitting MP: Grahame Morris (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

One of the few seats where the UKIP vote might actually go up.

5. North Durham

2010 Result:
Conservative: 8622 (21%)
Labour: 20698 (50.5%)
Lib Dem: 8617 (21%)
BNP: 1686 (4.1%)
UKIP: 1344 (3.3%)
MAJORITY: 12076 (29.5%)

2015 Result:
Labour Kevan Jones 22,047 54.9 +4.4
Conservative Laetitia Glossop5 8,403 20.9 -0.1
UKIP Malcolm Bint 6 6,404 16.0 +12.7
Liberal Democrat Peter Maughan7 2,046 5.1 -15.9
Green Victoria Nolan8 1,246 3.1 N/A
Majority 13,644 34.0
Turnout 40,146 61.4 +0.8

Leave Vote: 63.48%

Sitting MP: Kevan Jones (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

6. North West Durham

2010 Result:
Conservative: 8766 (20%)
Labour: 18539 (42.3%)
Lib Dem: 10927 (24.9%)
BNP: 1852 (4.2%)
UKIP: 1259 (2.9%)
Independent: 2472 (5.6%)
MAJORITY: 7612 (17.4%)

2015 Result:
Labour Pat Glass 20,074 46.9 +4.6
Conservative Charlotte Haitham-Taylor 10,018 23.4 +3.4
UKIP Bruce Reid 7,265 17.0 +14.1
Liberal Democrat Owen Temple 3,894 9.1 -15.8
Green Mark Shilcock 1,567 3.7 N/A
Majority 10,056 23.5
Turnout 42,818 61.3

Leave Vote: 58.68%

Sitting MP: Pat Glass (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Pat Glass is standing down and although there’s still a healthy 10k majority here for Labour this may be an outside chance for the Conservatives. Unlikely though.

7. Sedgefield

2010 Result:
Conservative: 9445 (23.5%)
Labour: 18141 (45.1%)
Lib Dem: 8033 (20%)
BNP: 2075 (5.2%)
UKIP: 1479 (3.7%)
Others: 1049 (2.6%)
MAJORITY: 8696 (21.6%)

2015 Result:
Labour Philip Wilson 18,275 47.2 +2.1
Conservative Scott Wood 11,432 29.5 +6.0
UKIP John Leathley 6,426 16.6 +12.9
Liberal Democrat Stephen Glenn 1,370 3.5 −16.4
Green Greg Robinson 1,213 3.1 N/A
Majority 6,843 17.7
Turnout 38,716 61.6

Leave Vote: 62.35%

Sitting MP: Phil Wilson (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

The Labour majority here has been declining here ever since Tony Blair left but the vote share is a healthy 47%. The cheering in CCHQ would be wild if the Tories managed to take this, but you feel only a very high turnout would enable them to do it.

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General Election Predictions

General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 14: Wales - South Glamorgan

26 Apr 2017 at 22:20

SOUTH GLAMORGAN

Seats: 5
Current Political Makeup: Con 2, Lab 3
Predicted Political Makeup after May 8: Con 4, LibDem 1
Revised: Con 2, Lab 3

1. Cardiff Central

2010 Result:
Conservative: 7799 (21.6%)
Labour: 10400 (28.8%)
Lib Dem: 14976 (41.4%)
Plaid Cymru: 1246 (3.4%)
Green: 575 (1.6%)
UKIP: 765 (2.1%)
TUSC: 162 (0.4%)
Independent: 86 (0.2%)
Others: 142 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 4576 (12.7%)

2015 Result:
Labour Jo Stevens9 15,462 40.01 +11.2
Liberal Democrat Jenny Willott9 10,481 27.12 −14.3
Conservative Richard Hopkin 5,674 14.68 −6.9
UKIP Anthony Raybould10 2,499 6.47 +4.4
Green Chris Von Ruhland 10 2,461 6.37 +4.8
Plaid Cymru Martin Pollard 1,925 4.98 +1.5
TUSC Steve Williams11 110 0.28 −0.2
Independent Kazimir Hubert9 34 0.09 N/A
Majority 4,981 12.9
Turnout 38,646 67.3 +8.2

Leave Vote: 28.38%

Sitting MP: Jo Stevens (Lab)
Prediction: LibDem gain
Revised: Lab hold

Eluned Parrott replaces Jenny Willott in this seat as LibDem candidate and she stands a good chance of re-gaining the seat from Labour. This seat has a huge Remain vote and that may be the key to LibDem success.

2. Cardiff North

2010 Result:
Conservative: 17860 (37.5%)
Labour: 17666 (37.1%)
Lib Dem: 8724 (18.3%)
Plaid Cymru: 1588 (3.3%)
Green: 362 (0.8%)
UKIP: 1130 (2.4%)
Christian: 300 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 194 (0.4%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Craig Williams 21,709 42.4 +4.9
Labour Mari Williams 19,572 38.3 +1.2
UKIP Ethan R Wilkinson 3,953 7.7 +5.4
Plaid Cymru Elin Jones 2,301 4.5 +1.2
Liberal Democrat Elizabeth Clark 1,953 3.8 −14.5
Green Ruth Osner 1,254 2.5 +1.7
Christian Jeff Green 331 0.6 0.0
Alter Change Shaun Jenkins 78 0.2 n/a
Majority 2,137 4.2 +3.8
Turnout 51,151 76.1 +3.4

Leave Vote: 38.31%

Sitting MP: Craig Williams (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Craig Williams increased the Tory majority of 195 to more than 2000 so must be confident of retaining the seat.

3. Cardiff South & Penarth

2010 Result:
Conservative: 12553 (28.3%)
Labour: 17262 (38.9%)
Lib Dem: 9875 (22.3%)
Plaid Cymru: 1851 (4.2%)
Green: 554 (1.2%)
UKIP: 1145 (2.6%)
Christian: 285 (0.6%)
Independent: 648 (1.5%)
Others: 196 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 4709 (10.6%)

2015 Result:
Labour Co-op Stephen Doughty14 19,966 42.8 +3.9
Conservative Emma Warman 12,513 26.8 −1.5
UKIP John Rees-Evans15 6,423 13.8 +11.2
Plaid Cymru Ben Foday 16 3,443 7.4 +3.2
Liberal Democrat Nigel Howells 2,318 5.0 −17.3
Green Anthony Slaughter 1,746 3.7 +2.5
TUSC Ross Saunders 258 0.6 n/a
Majority 7,453 16.0 −11.4
Turnout 46,667 61.4 +1.2

Leave Vote: 45.51%

Sitting MP: Stephen Doughty (Lab)
Prediction: Conservative gain
Revised: Lab hold

If the UKIP vote goes to the Conservatives as the ITV Wales poll predicts, this is a pretty definite Tory gain.

4. Cardiff West

2010 Result:
Conservative: 12143 (29.6%)
Labour: 16894 (41.2%)
Lib Dem: 7186 (17.5%)
Plaid Cymru: 2868 (7%)
Green: 750 (1.8%)
UKIP: 1117 (2.7%)
MAJORITY: 4751 (11.6%)

2015 Result:
Labour Kevin Brennan 17,803 40.7 −0.6
Conservative James Taghdissian 11,014 25.2 −4.5
Plaid Cymru Neil McEvoy 6,096 13.9 +6.9
UKIP Brian Morris 4,923 11.2 +8.5
Liberal Democrat Cadan ap Tomos 2,069 4.7 −12.8
Green Ken Barker 1,704 3.9 +2.1
TUSC Helen Jones 183 0.4 n/a
Majority 6,789 15.5 +3.9
Turnout 43,792 65.6 +0.4

Leave Vote: 44.22%

Sitting MP: Kevin Brennan (Lab)
Prediction: Conservative gain
Revised: Lab hold

Kevin Brennan won’t have anything to worry about. That’s what I said in 2015 and I was right. This time he does. A very popular MP, he might well lose his seat to the Conservatives if the stars align. I think they might well do.

5. Vale of Glamorgan

2010 Result:
Conservative: 20341 (41.8%)
Labour: 16034 (32.9%)
Lib Dem: 7403 (15.2%)
Plaid Cymru: 2667 (5.5%)
Green: 457 (0.9%)
UKIP: 1529 (3.1%)
Christian: 236 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 4307 (8.8%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Alun Cairns 23,607 46.0 +4.2
Labour Chris Elmore 16,727 32.6 −0.3
UKIP Kevin Mahoney 5,489 10.7 +7.6
Plaid Cymru Ian Johnson 2,869 5.6 +0.1
Liberal Democrat David Morgan6 1,309 2.6 −12.7
Green Alan Armstrong 1,054 2.1 +1.1
CISTA Steve Reed 238 0.5 +0.5
Majority 6,880 13.4 +4.6
Turnout 51,293 71.1 +1.8

Leave Vote: 51.02%

Sitting MP: Alun Cairns (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

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General Election Predictions

General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 13. Bristol & Surrounds

26 Apr 2017 at 20:29

Bristol & Surrounds

Seats: 11
Current Political Makeup: Con 8, Lab 3
Predicted Political Makeup after June 8: Con 8 , LibDem 2, Green 1
Revised: Con 9, Lab 1, Green 1
*
1. Bath*

2010 Result:
Conservative: 14768 (31.4%)
Labour: 3251 (6.9%)
Lib Dem: 26651 (56.6%)
Green: 1120 (2.4%)
UKIP: 890 (1.9%)
Christian: 250 (0.5%)
Independent: 56 (0.1%)
Others: 100 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 11883 (25.2%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Ben Howlett 16 17,833 37.8 +6.4
Liberal Democrat Steve Bradley 17 14,000 29.7 −26.9
Labour Ollie Middleton 1819 6,216 13.2 +6.3
Green Dominic Tristram 20 5,634 11.9 +9.6
UKIP Julian Deverell 21 2,922 6.2 +4.3
Independent Loraine Morgan-Brinkhurst 2223 499 1.1 +1.1
English Democrat Jenny Knight 63 0.1 +0.1
Majority 3,833 8.1 −7
Turnout 47,167 77.5 5.7

Leave Vote: 33.58%

Sitting MP: Ben Howlett (Con)
Prediction: LibDem gain
Revised: Con hold

The Conservatives were desperate to win this seat back ever since Chris Patten lost it in 1992, and they did so in 2015. There’s a very good chance the LibDems could win it back this time even though the MP is so left of centre and pro Remain he’s virtually a LibDem anyway. If the Greens stand down and the LibDems can attract some of the Labour vote, Ben Howlett is going to be facing his P45. Because of his arch-Remain stance it’s unlikely many UKIP voters will switch to him.

2. Bristol East

2010 Result:
Conservative: 12749 (28.3%)
Labour: 16471 (36.6%)
Lib Dem: 10993 (24.4%)
BNP: 1960 (4.4%)
Green: 803 (1.8%)
UKIP: 1510 (3.4%)
English Dem: 347 (0.8%)
TUSC: 184 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 3722 (8.3%)

2015 Result:
Labour Kerry McCarthy 18,148 39.3 +2.7
Conservative Theodora Clarke 14,168 30.7 +2.3
UKIP James McMurray 7,152 15.5 +12.1
Green Lorraine Francis9 3,827 8.3 +6.5
Liberal Democrat Abdul Malik 2,689 5.8 −18.6
TUSC Matt Gordon10 229 0.5 +0.1
Majority 3,980 8.6 +0.3
Turnout 46,213 64.2 −0.6

Leave Vote: 54.94%

Sitting MP: Kerry McCarthy (Lab)
Prediction: Conservative gain

This has consistently been a Labour seat but the Conservatives will target this seat on June 8th. Kerry McCarthy’s best hope is that she can persuade the Greens to stand down and give her a clear run. If UKIP voters switch in enough numbers and Leave supporting Labour voters defect too, McCarthy will lose. I expect her to.

3. Bristol North West

2010 Result:
Conservative: 19115 (38%)
Labour: 13059 (25.9%)
Lib Dem: 15841 (31.5%)
Green: 511 (1%)
UKIP: 1175 (2.3%)
English Dem: 635 (1.3%)
MAJORITY: 3274 (6.5%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Charlotte Leslie 22,767 43.9 +6.0
Labour Darren Jones 17,823 34.4 +8.5
UKIP Michael Frost 4,889 9.4 +7.1
Liberal Democrat Clare Campion-Smith 3,214 6.2 -25.3
Green Justin Quinnell 2,952 5.7 +4.7
TUSC Anne Lemon 160 0.3 N​/A
Majority 4,944 9.5 +6.0
Turnout 51,805 67.6 -0.9

Leave Vote: 46.21%

Sitting MP: Charlotte Leslie (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

4. Bristol South

2010 Result:
Conservative: 11086 (22.9%)
Labour: 18600 (38.4%)
Lib Dem: 13866 (28.7%)
BNP: 1739 (3.6%)
Green: 1216 (2.5%)
UKIP: 1264 (2.6%)
English Dem: 400 (0.8%)
TUSC: 206 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 4734 (9.8%)

2015 Result:
Labour Karin Smyth 7 19,505 38.4 -0.1
Conservative Isobel Grant 8 12,377 24.3 +1.4
UKIP Steve Wood 9 8,381 16.5 +13.9
Green Tony Dyer 10 5,861 11.5 +9.0
Liberal Democrat Mark Wright 11 4,416 8.7 -20.0
TUSC Tom Baldwin 12 302 0.6 +0.2
Majority 7,128 14.0 +4.2
Turnout 50,842 62.0 +0.4

Leave Vote: 54.05%

Sitting MP: Karin Smith (Lab)
Prediction: Conservative gain
Revised: Lab hold

Safe Labour seat. At least it was. I expect the Labour vote to drift to the Greens and LibDems (assuming the Greens stand) and the Torie to pick off half of the UKIP vote. If that happens Karin Smith is toast.

5. Bristol West

2010 Result:
Conservative: 10169 (18.4%)
Labour: 15227 (27.5%)
Lib Dem: 26593 (48%)
Green: 2090 (3.8%)
UKIP: 655 (1.2%)
English Dem: 270 (0.5%)
Independent: 343 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 11366 (20.5%)

2015 Result:
Labour Thangam Debbonaire 22,900 35.7 +8.1
Green Darren Hall 17,227 26.8 +23.0
Liberal Democrat Stephen Williams 12,103 18.8 −29.2
Conservative Claire Hiscott 9,752 15.2 −3.2
UKIP Paul Turner 1,940 3.0 +1.8
Independent Dawn Parry 204 0.3 N/A
Left Unity Stewart Weston 92 0.1 N/A
Majority 5,673 8.8 -11.7
Turnout 64,218 72.0 +5.1

Leave Vote: 19.95%

Sitting MP: Thangnam Debbonaire (Lab)
Prediction: Green gain

The Greens are taking the seat very seriously and it’s their best hope of doubling their parliamentary representation. The popular MEP Molly Scott Cato is their candidate and I expect her to eat into the LibDem vote. A lot depends on whether any of the Labour vote goes to them or the LibDems. Thangnam Debbonaire is quite popular and if anyone can hold onto the seat it’s her, but I am going to stick my neck out and predict a very narrow Green win. I may live to regret it.

6. Filton & Bradley Stoke

2010 Result:
Conservative: 19686 (40.8%)
Labour: 12772 (26.4%)
Lib Dem: 12197 (25.3%)
BNP: 1328 (2.7%)
Green: 441 (0.9%)
UKIP: 1506 (3.1%)
Christian: 199 (0.4%)
Others: 172 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 6914 (14.3%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Jack Lopresti 22,920 46.7 +5.9
Labour Ian Boulton 13,082 26.6 +0.2
UKIP Ben Walker 7,261 14.8 +11.7
Liberal Democrat Pete Bruce 3,581 7.3 -18.0
Green Diana Warner 2,257 4.6 +3.7
Majority 9,838 20.0 +5.8
Turnout 49,101 68.9 -1.1

Leave Vote: 51.25%

Sitting MP: Jack Lopresti (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

7. Kingswood

2010 Result:
Conservative: 19362 (40.4%)
Labour: 16917 (35.3%)
Lib Dem: 8072 (16.8%)
BNP: 1311 (2.7%)
Green: 383 (0.8%)
UKIP: 1528 (3.2%)
English Dem: 333 (0.7%)
MAJORITY: 2445 (5.1%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Chris Skidmore 23,252 48.3 +7.9
Labour Jo McCarron7 14,246 29.6 -5.7
UKIP Duncan Odgers8 7,133 14.8 +11.6
Liberal Democrat Adam Boyden9 1,827 3.8 -13.1
Green Cezara Nanu10 1,370 2.8 +2.0
BNP Julie Lake11 164 0.3 -2.4
TUSC Richard Worth12 84 0.2 +0.2
Vapers In Power Liam Bryan 49 0.1 +0.1
Majority 9,006 18.7 +13.6
Turnout 48,125 70.8 -1.4

Leave Vote: 60.63%

Sitting MP: Chris Skidmore (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

8. North East Somerset

2010 Result:
Conservative: 21130 (41.3%)
Labour: 16216 (31.7%)
Lib Dem: 11433 (22.3%)
Green: 670 (1.3%)
UKIP: 1754 (3.4%)
MAJORITY: 4914 (9.6%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Jacob Rees-Mogg 25,439 49.8 +8.5
Labour Todd Foreman 12,690 24.8 −6.8
UKIP Ernest Blaber 6,150 12.0 +8.6
Liberal Democrat Wera Hobhouse 4,029 7.9 −14.4
Green Katy Boyce9 2,802 5.5 +4.2
Majority 12,749 24.9
Turnout 73.7

Leave Vote: 54.23%

Sitting MP: Jacob Rees-Mogg (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

9. North Somerset

2010 Result:
Conservative: 28549 (49.3%)
Labour: 6448 (11.1%)
Lib Dem: 20687 (35.7%)
UKIP: 2257 (3.9%)
MAJORITY: 7862 (13.6%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Liam Fox 31,540 53.5 +4.2
Labour Greg Chambers 8,441 14.3 +3.2
UKIP Ian Kealey8 7,669 13.0 +9.1
Liberal Democrat Marcus Kravis 7,486 12.7 −23.0
Green David Derbyshire 3,806 6.5 +6.5
Majority 23,099 39.2 +25.6
Turnout 58,942 73.6 −1.4

Leave Vote: 49.25%

Sitting MP: Liam Fox (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

10. Thornbury & Yate

2010 Result:
Conservative: 17916 (37.2%)
Labour: 3385 (7%)
Lib Dem: 25032 (51.9%)
UKIP: 1709 (3.5%)
Others: 184 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 7116 (14.8%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Luke Hall 19,924 41.0 +3.9
Liberal Democrat Steve Webb 18,429 37.9 -14.0
UKIP Russ Martin 5,126 10.6 +7.0
Labour Hadleigh Roberts 3,775 7.8 +0.8
Green Iain Hamilton 1,316 2.7 N/A
Majority 1,495 3.1
Turnout 48,570 73.7

Leave Vote: 55.97%

Sitting MP: Luke Hall (Con)
Prediction: LibDem gain
Revised: Con hold

This is incredibly difficult to predict. Steve Webb isn’t restanding for the LibDems but even so I think this is a probable LibDem gain, especially if the Greens can be persuaded to stand aside. Luke Hall’s main hope is that he can attract the bulk of the UKIP vote. It will all depend on that.

11. Weston Super Mare

2010 Result:
Conservative: 23356 (44.3%)
Labour: 5772 (10.9%)
Lib Dem: 20665 (39.2%)
BNP: 1098 (2.1%)
UKIP: 1406 (2.7%)
English Dem: 275 (0.5%)
Independent: 144 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 2691 (5.1%)

2015 Result:
Conservative John Penrose 25,203 48.0 +3.7
Labour Tim Taylor 9,594 18.3 +7.4
UKIP Ernie Warrender 9,366 17.8 +15.1
Liberal Democrat John Munro 5,486 10.4 -28.8
Green Richard Lawson 2,592 4.9 +4.9
English Democrat Ronald Lavelle 311 0.6 +0.1
Majority 15,609 29.7 +24.6
Turnout 52,552 66.0 -1.2

Leave Vote: 58.42%

Sitting MP: John Penrose (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

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General Election Predictions

General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 12. Gloucestershire

25 Apr 2017 at 23:06

Seats: 6
Current Political Makeup: Con 6, LibDem 0
Predicted Political Makeup after June 8: Con 5, LibDem 1
Revised: Con 6

1. Cheltenham

2010 Result:
Conservative: 21739 (41.2%)
Labour: 2703 (5.1%)
Lib Dem: 26659 (50.5%)
UKIP: 1192 (2.3%)
Others: 493 (0.9%)
MAJORITY: 4920 (9.3%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Alex Chalk 11 24,790 46.1 +5.0
Liberal Democrat Martin Horwood 11 18,274 34.0 −16.5
Labour Paul Gilbert 12 3,902 7.3 +2.1
UKIP Christina Simmonds13 3,808 7.1 +4.8
Green Adam Van Coevorden 2,689 5.0 +5.0
Independent Richard Lupson-Darnell14 272 0.5 +0.5
Majority 6,516 12.1
Turnout 53,735 69.5 +2.4

Leave Vote: 38.76%

Sitting MP: Alex Chalk (Con)
Prediction LibDem gain
Revised: Con hold

This is one of those Tory seats which could easily fall to the LibDems. It has a high Remain vote and there’s little UKIP vote for the Tories to eat into. If the Greens don’t stand here it would also add impetus to the LibDems, whose former MP Martin Horwood is standing again. If there’s a Tory landslide they could just about hold onto this, but all things considered I’d say this is a decent bet for the LibDems.

2. Forest of Dean

2010 Result:
Conservative: 22853 (46.9%)
Labour: 11789 (24.2%)
Lib Dem: 10676 (21.9%)
Green: 923 (1.9%)
UKIP: 2522 (5.2%)
MAJORITY: 11064 (22.7%)

Conservative Mark Harper5 23,191 46.8 −0.1
Labour Steve Parry-Hearn5 12,204 24.6 +0.5
UKIP Steve Stanbury 8,792 17.8 +12.6
Green James Greenwood 2,703 5.5 +3.6
Liberal Democrat Christopher Coleman 2,630 5.3 −16.6
Majority 10,987 22.2 −0.5
Turnout 49,520 70.9 −0.4

Leave Vote: 58.37%

Sitting MP: Mark Harper (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

3. Gloucester

2010 Result:
Conservative: 20267 (39.9%)
Labour: 17847 (35.2%)
Lib Dem: 9767 (19.2%)
Green: 511 (1%)
UKIP: 1808 (3.6%)
English Dem: 564 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 2420 (4.8%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Richard Graham 23,837 45.3 +5.4
Labour Sophy Gardner12 16,586 31.5 -3.6
UKIP Richard Ford 7,497 14.3 +10.7
Liberal Democrat Jeremy Hilton 2,828 5.4 -13.8
Green Jonathan Ingleby 1,485 2.8 +1.8
Monster Raving Loony George Ridgeon 277 0.4 +0.4
TUSC Sue Powell13 58 0.1 +0.1
Majority 7,241 13.8 +9.0
Turnout 52,565 63.4 -0.6

Leave Vote: 56.14%

Sitting MP: Richard Graham (Con)
Prediction: *Conservative
hold

4. Stroud

2010 Result:
Conservative: 23679 (40.8%)
Labour: 22380 (38.6%)
Lib Dem: 8955 (15.4%)
Green: 1542 (2.7%)
UKIP: 1301 (2.2%)
Independent: 116 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 1299 (2.2%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Neil Carmichael 27,813 45.7 +4.9
Labour Co-op David Drew 22,947 37.7 -0.9
UKIP Caroline Stephens11 4,848 8.0 +5.7
Green Sarah Lunnon 2,779 4.6 +1.9
Liberal Democrat Adrian Walker-Smith 2,086 3.4 -12.0
Independent Richard Wilson 246 0.4 +0.4
Free Public Transport David Michael 100 0.2 +0.2
Majority 4,866 8.0
Turnout 60,819 75.5

Leave Vote: 48.63%

Sitting MP: Neil Carmichael (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

5. Tewkesbury

2010 Result:
Conservative: 25472 (47.2%)
Labour: 6253 (11.6%)
Lib Dem: 19162 (35.5%)
Green: 525 (1%)
UKIP: 2230 (4.1%)
Others: 319 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 6310 (11.7%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Laurence Robertson 30,176 54.5 +7.3
Labour Ed Buxton 8,204 14.6 +3.2
Liberal Democrat Alistair Cameron 7,629 13.8 -21.7
UKIP Stuart Adair10 7,128 12.9 +8.7
Green Jemma Clarke11 2,207 4.0 +3.0
Majority 21,972 39.7 +28.0
Turnout 55,344 70.1 -0.3

Leave Vote: 52.38%

Sitting MP: Laurence Robertson (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

6. The Cotswolds

2010 Result:
Conservative: 29075 (53%)
Labour: 5886 (10.7%)
Lib Dem: 16211 (29.6%)
Green: 940 (1.7%)
UKIP: 2292 (4.2%)
Independent: 428 (0.8%)
MAJORITY: 12864 (23.5%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Geoffrey Clifton-Brown 32,045 56.5 +3.5
Liberal Democrat Paul Hodgkinson 6 10,568 18.6 −10.9
UKIP Chris Harlow 6,188 10.9 +6.7
Labour Manjinder Kang 5,240 9.2 −1.5
Green Penny Burgess 2,626 4.6 +2.9
Majority 21,477 37.9 +14.4
Turnout 56,667 72.4 +0.9

Leave Vote: 47.58%

Sitting MP: Geoffrey Clifton-Brown (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE

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General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 11. Suffolk

25 Apr 2017 at 22:17

SUFFOLK

Number of Seats: 7
Current Political Makeup: Conservative, 7
Prediction for 2017: Conservative 7

1. Bury St Edmunds
2010 Result:
Conservative: 27899 (47.5%)
Labour: 9776 (16.6%)
Lib Dem: 15519 (26.4%)
Green: 2521 (4.3%)
UKIP: 3003 (5.1%)
MAJORITY: 12380 (21.1%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Jo Churchill12 31,815 53.6 +6.1
Labour William Edwards 13 10,514 17.7 +1.1
UKIP John Howlett 8,739 14.7 +9.6
Green Helen Geake 14 4,692 7.9 +3.6
Liberal Democrat David Chappell 3,581 6.0 -20.4
Majority 21,301 35.9 +6.1
Turnout 59,341 69.0 -0.3

Leave Vote: 55.96%

Sitting MP: Jo Churchill (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

2. Central Suffolk & North Ipswich

2010 Result:
Conservative: 27125 (50.8%)
Labour: 8636 (16.2%)
Lib Dem: 13339 (25%)
Green: 1452 (2.7%)
UKIP: 2361 (4.4%)
Independent: 389 (0.7%)
Others: 118 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 13786 (25.8%)

Conservative Daniel Poulter 30,317 56.1 +5.3
Labour Jack Abbott 10,173 18.8 +2.6
UKIP Mark Cole 7,459 13.8 +9.4
Liberal Democrat Jon Neal 3,314 6.1 −18.8
Green Rhodri Griffiths 2,664 4.9 +2.2
English Democrat Tony Holyoak 162 0.3 N/A
Majority 20,144 37.2 +11.4
Turnout 54,089 68.7 −1.7

Leave Vote: 56.36%

Sitting MP: Dr Dan Poulter (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

3. Ipswich

2010 Result:
Conservative: 18371 (39.1%)
Labour: 16292 (34.7%)
Lib Dem: 8556 (18.2%)
BNP: 1270 (2.7%)
Green: 775 (1.7%)
UKIP: 1365 (2.9%)
Christian: 149 (0.3%)
Independent: 93 (0.2%)
Others: 70 (0.1%)
MAJORITY: 2079 (4.4%)

Conservative Ben Gummer 21,794 44.8 +5.6
Labour David Ellesmere 18,051 37.1 +2.4
UKIP Maria Vigneau 5,703 11.7 +8.8
Green Barry Broom 1,736 3.6 +1.9
Liberal Democrat Chika Akinwale 1,400 2.9 −15.4
Majority 3,733 7.7 +3.3
Turnout 48,694 65.4 +5.5

Leave Vote: 57.52%

Sitting MP: Ben Gummer (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Another of those bellweather seats that tends to swing with the political wind. If Labour is to get near winning an election it needs to win Ipswich. I see little prospect of that happening. Ben Gummer is a prominent remainer in a very Leave seat. Might that mean the UKIP vote will hold up better here? I don’t think that will be enough to prevent another Gummer victory, though.

4. South Suffolk

2010 Result:
Conservative: 24550 (47.7%)
Labour: 7368 (14.3%)
Lib Dem: 15861 (30.8%)
UKIP: 3637 (7.1%)
MAJORITY: 8689 (16.9%)

2015 Result:
Conservative James Cartlidge 27,546 53.1 +5.4
Labour Jane Basham 10,001 19.3 +5.0
UKIP Steven Whalley6 7,897 15.2 +8.1
Liberal Democrat Grace Weaver 4,044 7.8 −23.0
Green Robert Lindsay 2,253 4.3 N/A
Christian Peoples Stephen Todd7 166 0.3 N/A
Majority 17,545 33.8 16.9
Turnout 51,907 71.0 +0.1

Leave Vote: 58.14%

Sitting MP: James Cartlidge (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

5. Suffolk Coastal

2010 Result:
Conservative: 25475 (46.4%)
Labour: 8812 (16.1%)
Lib Dem: 16347 (29.8%)
Green: 1103 (2%)
UKIP: 3156 (5.7%)
MAJORITY: 9128 (16.6%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Therese Coffey 28,855 51.9 +5.5
Labour Russell Whiting 10,013 18.0 +2.0
UKIP Daryll Pitcher 8,655 15.6 +9.8
Liberal Democrat James Sandbach 4,777 8.6 −21.2
Green Rachel Smith-Lyte 3,294 5.9 +3.9
Majority 18,842 33.9 +17.3
Turnout 55,594 70.6 −0.6

Leave Vote: 56.52%

Sitting MP: Therese Coffey (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

6. Waveney

2010 Result:
Conservative: 20571 (40.2%)
Labour: 19802 (38.7%)
Lib Dem: 6811 (13.3%)
Green: 1167 (2.3%)
UKIP: 2684 (5.2%)
Independent: 106 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 769 (1.5%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Peter Aldous 22,104 42.3 +2.1
Labour Bob Blizzard 19,696 37.7 −1.0
UKIP Simon Tobin 7,580 14.5 +9.3
Green Graham Elliott 1,761 3.4 +1.1
Liberal Democrat Stephen Gordon 1,055 2.0 −11.3
Majority 2,408 4.6
Turnout 52,196 65.1

Leave Vote: 66.37%

Sitting MP: Peter Aldous (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

A narrow majority in both of the last elections for Peter Aldous. UKIP put on a shed load of votes last time, many of which ought to revert to the Conservatives this time. Difficult to see Labour winning here in the current circumstances. One of the highest Leave votes in the country.

7. West Suffolk

2010 Result:
Conservative: 24312 (50.6%)
Labour: 7089 (14.7%)
Lib Dem: 11262 (23.4%)
BNP: 1428 (3%)
UKIP: 3085 (6.4%)
Independent: 540 (1.1%)
Others: 373 (0.8%)
MAJORITY: 13050 (27.1%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Matthew Hancock 25,684 52.2 +1.6
UKIP Julian Flood8 10,700 21.7 +15.3
Labour Michael Jefferys 8,604 17.5 +2.7
Liberal Democrat Elfreda Tealby-Watson9 2,465 5.0 −18.4
Green Niall Pettitt10 1,779 3.6 N/A
Majority 14,984 30.4 +3.3
Turnout 49,429 64.9 +0.3

Leave Vote: 65.27%

Sitting MP: Matthew Hancock (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Seeing as this has been a Conservative held seat since the 19th century, it’s another Conservative hold to be your mortgage on. However, it will be interesting to see how the high Leave vote affects the Remain supporting MP’s majority.

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General Election Predictions

General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 10. Wales - Dyfed

24 Apr 2017 at 21:38

DYFED

Seats: 5
Current Political Makeup: Con 2, LibDem 1, Lab 1, PC 1
Predicted Political Makeup after June 8: Con 2, LibDem 1, Lab 1, PC 1

1. Carmarthen East & Dinefwr

2010 Result:
Conservative: 8506 (22.4%)
Labour: 10065 (26.5%)
Lib Dem: 4609 (12.1%)
Plaid Cymru: 13546 (35.6%)
UKIP: 1285 (3.4%)
MAJORITY: 3481 (9.2%)

2015 Result:
Plaid Cymru Jonathan Edwards 15,140 38.4 +2.8
Labour Calum Higgins 9,541 24.2 −2.3
Conservative Matthew Paul 8,336 21.2 −1.2
UKIP Norma Woodward8 4,363 11.1 +7.7
Green Ben Rice9 1,091 2.8 N/A
Liberal Democrat Sara Lloyd Williams10 928 2.4 −9.8
Majority 5,599 14.2 +5.0
Turnout 39,399 70.9 −1.7

Leave Vote: 52.98%

Sitting MP: Jonathan Edwards (PC)
Prediction: Plaid Cymru hold

2. Carmarthen West & South Pembrokeshire

2010 Result:
Conservative: 16649 (41.1%)
Labour: 13226 (32.7%)
Lib Dem: 4890 (12.1%)
Plaid Cymru: 4232 (10.4%)
UKIP: 1146 (2.8%)
Independent: 364 (0.9%)
MAJORITY: 3423 (8.5%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Simon Hart 17,626 43.7 +2.6
Labour Delyth Evans 11,572 28.7 −4.0
UKIP John Atkinson8 4,698 11.6 +8.8
Plaid Cymru Dewi Williams 4,201 10.4 0.0
Green Gary Tapley 91011 1,290 3.2 n/a
Liberal Democrat Selwyn Runnett12 963 2.4 −9.7
Majority 6,054 15.0 +6.5
Turnout 40,350 69.8 −0.6

Leave Vote: 52.61%
Sitting MP: Simon Hart (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

3. Ceredigion

2010 Result:
Conservative: 4421 (11.6%)
Labour: 2210 (5.8%)
Lib Dem: 19139 (50%)
Plaid Cymru: 10815 (28.3%)
Green: 696 (1.8%)
UKIP: 977 (2.6%)
MAJORITY: 8324 (21.8%)

2015 Result:
Liberal Democrat Mark Williams 13,414 35.9 -14.2
Plaid Cymru Mike Parker 10,347 27.7 -0.6
Conservative Henrietta Hensher 4,123 11.0 -0.5
UKIP Gethin James 3,829 10.2 +7.7
Labour Huw Thomas 3,615 9.7 +3.9
Green Daniel Thompson 2,088 5.6 +3.8
Majority 3,067 8.2 -13.6
Turnout 37,416 69.0 +4.2

Leave Vote: 44.61%
Sittting MP: Mark Williams (LibDem)
Prediction: LibDem hold

4. Llanelli

2010 Result:
Conservative: 5381 (14.4%)
Labour: 15916 (42.5%)
Lib Dem: 3902 (10.4%)
Plaid Cymru: 11215 (29.9%)
UKIP: 1047 (2.8%)
MAJORITY: 4701 (12.5%)

2015 Result:
Labour Nia Griffith13 15,948 41.3 −1.1
Plaid Cymru Vaughan Williams14 8,853 23.0 −7.0
UKIP Kenneth Rees 6,269 16.3 +13.5
Conservative Selaine Saxby15 5,534 14.3 0.0
Liberal Democrat Cen Phillips16 751 1.9 −8.5
Green Guy Smith 689 1.8 N/A
People First Siân Caiach17 407 1.1 N/A
TUSC Scott Jones 123 0.3 N/A
Majority 7,095 18.4 +5.9
Turnout 38,574 64.5 -2.8

Leave Vote: 56.43%
Sitting MP: Nia Griffith (Lab)
Prediction: Plaid Cymru gain
Revised: Lab hold

Plaid are in a good second place and even though their vote went down in 2015 this is one they will hope to win this time. With Jeremy Corbyn’s help, they might just do that.

5. Preseli Pembrokeshire

2010 Result:
Conservative: 16944 (42.8%)
Labour: 12339 (31.2%)
Lib Dem: 5759 (14.5%)
Plaid Cymru: 3654 (9.2%)
UKIP: 906 (2.3%)
MAJORITY: 4605 (11.6%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Stephen Crabb 16,383 40.4 −2.4
Labour Paul Miller 11,414 28.1 −3.0
UKIP Howard Lillyman 4,257 10.5 +8.2
Independent Chris Overton 3,729 9.2 +9.2
Plaid Cymru John Osmond 2,518 6.2 −3.0
Green Frances Bryant 1,452 3.6 N/A
Liberal Democrat Nick Tregoning 780 1.9 −12.6
The New Society of Worth Rodney Maile 23 0.1 n/a
Majority 4,969 12.3 +0.7
Turnout 40,556 70.7 +1.7

Sitting MP: Stephen Crabb (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE

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General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 9. Bedfordshire

24 Apr 2017 at 20:51

Seats: 6
Current Political Makeup: Con 4, Lab 2
Predicted Political Makeup after June 8: Con 5, Lab 1
Revised: Con 4, Lab 2

BEDFORDSHIRE

1. Bedford

2010 Result:
Conservative: 17546 (38.9%)
Labour: 16193 (35.9%)
Lib Dem: 8957 (19.9%)
BNP: 757 (1.7%)
Green: 393 (0.9%)
UKIP: 1136 (2.5%)
Independent: 120 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 1353 (3%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Richard Fuller 19,625 42.6 +3.7
Labour Patrick Hall 18,528 40.2 +4.3
UKIP Charlie Smith 4,434 9.6 +7.1
Liberal Democrat Mahmud Rogers 1,958 4.2 −15.6
Green Ben Foley 12 1,412 3.1 +2.2
Independent Faruk Choudhury 129 0.3 N/A
Majority 1,097 2.4 −0.6
Turnout 46,086 66.5 +0.6

Leave Vote: 53.17%

Sitting MP: Richard Fuller (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

This seat was Labour during the Blair & Brown years and only narrowly went Tory in 2010. With a substantial LibDem vote to eat into, last time it should have gone Labour in 2015. There’s little reason to suggest it will this time.

2. Luton North

2010 Result:
Conservative: 13672 (31.8%)
Labour: 21192 (49.3%)
Lib Dem: 4784 (11.1%)
BNP: 1316 (3.1%)
Green: 490 (1.1%)
UKIP: 1564 (3.6%)
MAJORITY: 7520 (17.5%)

2015 Result:
Labour Kelvin Hopkins9 22,243 52.2 +2.9
Conservative Dean Russell10 12,739 29.9 −1.9
UKIP Allan White11 5,318 12.5 +8.9
Liberal Democrat Aroosa Ulzaman 1,299 3.1 −8.1
Green Sofiya Ahmed 972 2.3 +1.1
Majority 9,504 22.3 +4.8
Turnout 42,571 64.0 −1.5

Leave Vote: 56.29%

Sitting MP: Kelvin Hopkins (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

This used to be a safe Tory seat until boundary changes made it a safe Labour seat. Kelvin Hopkins’ majority increased in 2015 as he ate into the LibDem vote. I suspect many of those votes will return to the LibDems this time. The Tories may have hopes in this seat but Hopkins is popular and his personal vote may see him through.

3. Luton South

2010 Result:
Conservative: 12396 (29.4%)
Labour: 14725 (34.9%)
Lib Dem: 9567 (22.7%)
BNP: 1299 (3.1%)
Green: 366 (0.9%)
UKIP: 975 (2.3%)
Independent: 1872 (4.4%)
Others: 1016 (2.4%)
MAJORITY: 2329 (5.5%)

2015 Result:
Labour Gavin Shuker 18,660 44.2 +9.3
Conservative Katie Redmond 12,949 30.7 +1.3
UKIP Muhammad Rehman 5,129 12.1 +9.8
Liberal Democrat Ashuk Ahmed 3,183 7.5 −15.1
Green Simon Hall 1,237 2.9 +2.1
Independent Attiq Malik 900 2.1 N/A
Liberty GB Paul Weston 158 0.4 N/A
Majority 5,711 13.5 +8
Turnout 42,216 62.8 −2

Leave Vote: 53.07%
Sitting MP: Gavin Shuker (Lab)
Prediction: Conservative gain
Revised: Lab hold

As the LibDems return home from Labour, and UKIP voters return to the Tories Gavin Shuker may be a casualty of the Corbyn era.

4. Mid Bedfordshire

2010 Result:
Conservative: 28815 (52.5%)
Labour: 8108 (14.8%)
Lib Dem: 13663 (24.9%)
Green: 773 (1.4%)
UKIP: 2826 (5.1%)
English Dem: 712 (1.3%)
MAJORITY: 15152 (27.6%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Nadine Dorries 6 32,544 56.1 +3.6
Labour Charlynne Pullen 6 9,217 15.9 +1.1
UKIP Nigel Wickens7 8,966 15.4 +10.3
Liberal Democrat Linda Jack 8 4,193 7.2 -17.7
Green Gareth Ellis 9 2,462 4.2 +2.8
Independent Tim Ireland10 384 0.7 +0.7
Monster Raving Loony Ann Kelly11 294 0.5 +0.5
Majority 23,327 40.2 +12.6
Turnout 58,060 71.6 -0.6

Leave Vote: 52.06%

Sitting MP: Nadine Dorries (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

5. North East Bedfordshire

2010 Result:
Conservative: 30989 (55.8%)
Labour: 8957 (16.1%)
Lib Dem: 12047 (21.7%)
BNP: 1265 (2.3%)
UKIP: 2294 (4.1%)
MAJORITY: 18942 (34.1%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Alistair Burt 34,891 59.5 +3.7
Labour Saqhib Ali 7 9,247 15.8 −0.4
UKIP Adrianne Smyth8 8,579 14.6 +10.5
Liberal Democrat Peter Morris 9 3,418 5.8 −15.9
Green Mark Bowler 2,537 4.3 N/A
Majority 25,644 43.7 +9.6
Turnout 58,672 70.2

Leave Vote: 53.09%

Sitting MP: Alistair Burt (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

6. South West Bedfordshire

2010 Result:
Conservative: 26815 (52.8%)
Labour: 9948 (19.6%)
Lib Dem: 10166 (20%)
BNP: 1703 (3.4%)
UKIP: 2142 (4.2%)
MAJORITY: 16649 (32.8%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Andrew Selous 9 28,212 55.0 +2.2
Labour Daniel Scott 9 10,399 20.3 +0.7
UKIP John van Weenen 10 7,941 15.5 +11.3
Liberal Democrat Stephen Rutherford 11 2,646 5.2 −14.9
Green Emily Lawrence 12 2,106 4.1 N/A
Majority 17,813 34.7
Turnout 51,304 64.4

Leave Vote: 57.6%

Sitting MP: Andrew Selous (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

To see the complete list of predictions click HERE

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My 20 Pieces of Advice to First Time General Election Candidates

24 Apr 2017 at 20:37

This is a rehash of a blog I wrote at the beginning of the 2010 election campaign, having just re-read my blogposts from the 2005 election, when I was Conservative candidate in North Norfolk. The experience brought back lots of memories – not all of them bad! But it did make me think about the pitfalls of being a candidate and how to get through an election campaign intact. For what it’s worth, here’s my advice to first time candidates…

1. You can’t do everything yourself. Let others take the strain. You are the leader of the campaign. Act like it.
2. Keep your cool. There will be moments in the campaign when you want to scream your head off. Resist the temptation. Count to ten. Then count to twenty. Ignore the temptation to hit your agent when he/she calls you a “legal necessity”.
3. Your campaign workers are volunteers. They don’t have to turn out to help you. They do it because they want to. Motivate them. Treat them well. Make sure you stop for lunch and that they don’t do too much. It’s a long campaign. Don’t wear them out after the first week.
4. Make sure all your literature is proof read. Three times. And not by you.
5. If you have a campaign blog, never write a spontaneous blogpost. Always run it by someone else first. Be incredibly careful what you tweet. Imagine your name in bold print in the Daily Mirror. If you hesitate before pressing SEND, it probably means you shouldn’t.
6. Make sure you keep to your normal sleep patterns. You may think you are Superman/Superwoman, but you’re not. You need your sleep. Make sure you get it.
7. You don’t need to hold a long campaign meeting every morning. Three times a week is usually enough. Make sure that the only people who attend are those who really should. Restrict meetings to half an hour.
8. Posters do not gain extra votes. But they make your local party feel good and give your campaign the appearance of momentum. Do not put them up too early. And do not put them up all at once. And if they get ripped down, make sure your campaign team has a strategy for replacing them within 24 hours.

9. Personalise your ‘Sorry You Were Out Cards’. Include your ten campaign pledges on them. And include an apparently handwritten message and signature.
10. Do not drive anywhere yourself. Especially, do not drive your campaign vehicle. Appoint a PA who will drive you everywhere. Think of the bad publicity if you are involved in an accident, or even a broken down car or flat tyre. The last thing your campaign needs is for you to be involved in a public argument with another irate driver. If someone else is driving, you can walk away when another car is arranged for you.
11. Make sure you eat properly, and regularly. McCoys, Coke and Mars Bars do not a healthy diet make. Do not drink any alcohol during the day. Never buy anyone a drink. It’s against electoral law and counts as treating
12. If Party HQ offer you the chance of a visit from a politician even you have barely heard of, turn them down. Even if you have heard of them, consider turning them down. Visits from national politicians use up too many resources and rarely attract a single extra vote.
13. Don’t canvass before 10am or after 8.30pm. It looks desperate and annoys people. And be very careful about canvassing on Sundays. People don’t like it. Use Sundays to catch up on deliveries in areas with no deliverers.

14. Resist the temptation to strangle the next person who asks “How’s it going?” or “Are you going to win?”. They’re only being polite.
15. If you’re in a high profile marginal seat which the media find interesting, avoid spending half your day giving them interviews. Your only media focus is local. Ignore Michael Crick. He’s not there to help you.
16. Avoid the natural desire to believe what voters tell you on the doorstep. Most of them will tell you what you want to hear in order to get you off the doorstep. If they say “I’ll see how I feel on the day” you can safely put them down as a Liberal Democrat.
17. Your ‘Get Out The Vote’ operation is more important than anything else you do during the campaign. Satisfy yourself that your Agent and Campaign Manager have it in hand and they know what they are doing.
18. Ignore those who tell you not to appear at your count until it is well underway. It’s your moment. Relish it. Prepare your speech. If you lose unexpectedly, you will be remembered for how you react. Act graciously towards your opponents during the counting and in your speech.
19. If you lose, you will be tempted to blame someone. Your party leader. Your local party. Anyone but yourself. Don’t. Whatever your personal thoughts, no one likes a bad loser. Be dignified and take it on the chin. If you win, hubris may take over. It really wasn’t all down to you, you know. And make sure others know you know that.
20. Make sure you write a personal thank you letter – and I mean write, not type – to all those who helped on your campaign. Do it within a week of polling day. You really could not have done it without them.

Good luck, and try to enjoy it!

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General Election Predictions

General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 8. Northumberland

24 Apr 2017 at 11:11

NORTHUMBERLAND

Seats: 4
Current Political Makeup: Con 2, Lab 2
Predicted Political Makeup after June 8: Con 2, Lab 2

1. Berwick upon Tweed

2010 Result:
Conservative: 14116 (36.7%)
Labour: 5061 (13.2%)
Lib Dem: 16806 (43.7%)
BNP: 1213 (3.2%)
UKIP: 1243 (3.2%)
MAJORITY: 2690 (7%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Anne-Marie Trevelyan 16,603 41.1 +4.4
Liberal Democrat Julie Pörksen12 11,689 28.9 -14.8
Labour Scott Dickinson 6,042 14.9 +1.8
UKIP Nigel Coghill-Marshall13 4,513 11.2 +7.9
Green Rachael Roberts 1,488 3.7 N/A
English Democrat Neil Humphrey 88 0.2 N/A
Majority 4,914 12.2
Turnout 40,423 69.6 +2.6

Leave vote: 59.04%

Sitting MP: Anne-Marie Trevelyan (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Not a huge majority for the Tories here, and the LibDems will be hoping they can attract enough Labour Remain supporters to win, but they will know that the Clonservatives will undoubtedly eat into the UKIP vote. It may be tight but I expect a Tory hold here, mainly because it had such a high Leave vote.

2. Blyth Valley

2010 Result:
Conservative: 6412 (16.6%)
Labour: 17156 (44.5%)
Lib Dem: 10488 (27.2%)
BNP: 1699 (4.4%)
UKIP: 1665 (4.3%)
English Dem: 327 (0.8%)
Independent: 819 (2.1%)
MAJORITY: 6668 (17.3%)

2015 Result:
Labour Ronnie Campbell 17,813 46.3 +1.8
UKIP Barry Elliott 8,584 22.3 +18.0
Conservative Greg Munro 8,346 21.7 +5.1
Liberal Democrat Philip Latham6 2,265 5.9 -21.3
Green Dawn Furness7 1,453 3.8 +3.8
Majority 9,229 24.0 +6.3
Turnout 38,461 60.1 +0.01

Leave Vote: 63.87%

Sitting MP: Ronnie Campbell (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

On the face of it a safe seat. UKIP came second here in 2015. If the bulk of their vote goes to the Tories Labour’s margin of victory may be very narrow indeed.

3. Hexham

2010 Result:
Conservative: 18795 (43.2%)
Labour: 8253 (19%)
Lib Dem: 13007 (29.9%)
BNP: 1205 (2.8%)
Independent: 1974 (4.5%)
Others: 249 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 5788 (13.3%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Guy Opperman 22,834 52.7 +9.5
Labour Liam Carr 10,803 24.9 +5.9
UKIP David Nicholson 4,302 9.9 N/A
Liberal Democrat Jeff Reid7 2,961 6.8 -23.1
Green Lee Williscroft-Ferris 2,445 5.6 N/A
Majority 12,031 27.8 +9.5
Turnout 43,345 71.5 +0.7

Leave Vote: 48.88%

Sitting MP: Guy Opperman (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

4. Wansbeck

2010 Result:
Conservative: 6714 (17.5%)
Labour: 17548 (45.8%)
Lib Dem: 10517 (27.5%)
BNP: 1418 (3.7%)
Green: 601 (1.6%)
UKIP: 974 (2.5%)
Christian: 142 (0.4%)
Independent: 359 (0.9%)
MAJORITY: 7031 (18.4%)

2015 Result:
Labour Ian Lavery 19,267 50.0 +4.2
Conservative Chris Galley 8,386 21.8 +4.2
UKIP Melanie Hurst 7,014 18.2 +15.7
Liberal Democrat Tom Hancock 2,407 6.2 -21.2
Green Christopher Hedley 1,454 3.8 +2.2
Majority 10,881 28.2 +9.8
Turnout 38,528 63.6 +2.9

Leave Vote: 59.43%

Sitting MP: Ian Lavery (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Another very high UKIP vote here last time. I expect the Labour majority will tumble.

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE

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General Election Predictions

General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 7: Central London

24 Apr 2017 at 09:29

LONDON CENTRAL

Seats: 6
Current Political Makeup: Con 2, Lab 4
Predicted Political Makeup after May 8: Con 3, Lab 3

Cities of London & Westminster

2010 Result:
Conservative: 19264 (52.2%)
Labour: 8188 (22.2%)
Lib Dem: 7574 (20.5%)
Green: 778 (2.1%)
UKIP: 664 (1.8%)
English Dem: 191 (0.5%)
Independent: 98 (0.3%)
Others: 174 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 11076 (30%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Mark Field 19,570 54.1 +1.9
Labour Nik Slingsby 9,899 27.4 +5.2
Liberal Democrat Belinda Brooks-Gordon 2,521 7.0 -13.5
Green Hugh Small 1,953 5.4 +3.4
UKIP Robert Stephenson 1,894 5.2 +3.4
CISTA Edouard-Henri Desforges 160 0.4 N/A
Christian Peoples Jill McLachlan 129 0.4 N/A
Class War Adam Clifford 59 0.2 N/A
Majority 9,671 26.7 -3.3
Turnout 36,185 59.3 +3.8

Leave Vote: 23.79%

Sitting MP: Mark Field (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Holborn & St Pancras

2010 Result:
Conservative: 11134 (20.4%)
Labour: 25198 (46.1%)
Lib Dem: 15256 (27.9%)
BNP: 779 (1.4%)
Green: 1480 (2.7%)
UKIP: 587 (1.1%)
English Dem: 75 (0.1%)
Independent: 96 (0.2%)
Others: 44 (0.1%)
MAJORITY: 9942 (18.2%)

2015 Result:
Labour Keir Starmer 29,062 52.9 +6.8
Conservative Will Blair 12,014 21.9 +1.5
Green Natalie Bennett 7,013 12.8 +10.1
Liberal Democrat Jill Fraser 3,555 6.5 −21.4
UKIP Maxine Spencer 2,740 5.0 +3.9
CISTA Shane O’Donnell 252 0.5 N/A
Animal Welfare Vanessa Hudson 173 0.3 N/A
Socialist Equality David O’Sullivan 108 0.2 N/A
Majority 17,048 31.0 +13.1
Turnout 54,917 63.3 +0.4

Leave Vote: 25.92%
Sitting MP: Sir Keir Starmer (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Islington South & Finsbury

2010 Result:
Conservative: 8449 (19.4%)
Labour: 18407 (42.3%)
Lib Dem: 14838 (34.1%)
Green: 710 (1.6%)
UKIP: 701 (1.6%)
English Dem: 301 (0.7%)
Others: 149 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 3569 (8.2%)

2015 Result:
Labour Emily Thornberry 22,547 50.9 +8.7
Conservative Mark Lim 9,839 22.2 +2.8
Liberal Democrat Terry Stacy 4,829 10.9 −23.2
UKIP Pete Muswell 3,375 7.6 +6.0
Green Charlie Kiss 3,371 7.6 +6.0
CISTA Jay Kirton 309 0.7 N/A
Majority 12,708 28.7 +20.5
Turnout 44,270 65.0 +0.6

Leave Vote: 29.8%

Sitting MP: Emily Thornbury (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Kensington

2010 Result:
Conservative: 17595 (50.1%)
Labour: 8979 (25.5%)
Lib Dem: 6872 (19.6%)
Green: 753 (2.1%)
UKIP: 754 (2.1%)
Others: 197 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 8616 (24.5%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Victoria Borwick9 18,199 52.3 +2.2
Labour Rod Abouharb 10,838 31.1 +5.6
Liberal Democrat Robin McGhee 1,962 5.6 −13.9
Green Robina Rose 1,765 5.1 +2.9
UKIP Jack Bovill10 1,557 4.5 +2.3
CISTA Tony Auguste 211 0.6 +0.6
Animal Welfare Andrew Knight 158 0.5 +0.5
Alliance for Green Socialism Toby Abse 115 0.3 −0.2
New Independent Centralists Roland Courtenay 23 0.1 +0.1
Majority 7,361 21.1 −3.4
Turnout 34,828 57.0 +3.7

Sitting MP: Victoria Borwick (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Poplar & Limehouse

2010 Result:
Conservative: 12649 (27.1%)
Labour: 18679 (40%)
Lib Dem: 5209 (11.2%)
Green: 449 (1%)
UKIP: 565 (1.2%)
Respect: 8160 (17.5%)
English Dem: 470 (1%)
Independent: 293 (0.6%)
Others: 226 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 6030 (12.9%)

2015 Result:
Labour Jim Fitzpatrick11 29,886 58.5 +18.6
Conservative Chris Wilford11 12,962 25.4 -1.7
UKIP Nicholas McQueen11 3,128 6.1 +4.9
Green Maureen Childs11 2,463 4.8 +3.9
Liberal Democrat Elaine Bagshaw12 2,149 4.2 -6.9
TUSC Hugo Pierre11 367 0.7 +0.7
Red Flag Anti-Corruption Rene Claudel Mugenzi11 89 0.2 +0.2
Majority 16,924 33.1 +20.2
Turnout 51,044 62.2 -0.1

Leave Vote: 34.07%

Sitting MP: Jim Fitzpatrick (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Westminster North

2010 Result:
Conservative: 15251 (38.5%)
Labour: 17377 (43.9%)
Lib Dem: 5513 (13.9%)
BNP: 334 (0.8%)
Green: 478 (1.2%)
UKIP: 315 (0.8%)
English Dem: 99 (0.3%)
Christian: 98 (0.2%)
Independent: 101 (0.3%)
Others: 32 (0.1%)
MAJORITY: 2126 (5.4%)

2015 Result:
Karen Buck Labour 18,504 46.8 +2.9
Lindsey Hall Conservative 16,527 41.8 +3.3
Nigel Sussman UKIP 1,489 3.8 +3.0
Kirsty Allan Liberal Democrat 1,457 3.7 –10.2
Jennifer Nadel Green 1,322 3.3 +2.1
Gabriela Fajardo Christian 152 0.4 +0.2
Charles Ward Independent 63 0.2
Majority: 2,126 (5.4%)
Swing: 0.6% from Lab to Con

Leave Vote: 30.03%
Sitting MP: Karen Buck (Lab)
Prediction: Conservative gain

Last time I predicted the Labour majority should increase by a couple of thousand at the very least. It didn’t. It remained static. If the Labour vote dribbles to the LibDems and the Tories can pick up half the UKIP vote this could be a very tight race indeed, and the Conservatives will be putting a lot of effort into this seat. They ought to take it.

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE

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