General Election Predictions

General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 67. London North West

7 May 2017 at 13:30

LONDON NORTH WEST

Seats: 10
Current Political Makeup: Con 5 , Lab 5
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 7, Lab 3

Brent Central

2010 Result:
Conservative: 5067 (11.2%)
Labour: 18681 (41.2%)
Lib Dem: 20026 (44.2%)
Green: 668 (1.5%)
Respect: 230 (0.5%)
Christian: 488 (1.1%)
Independent: 163 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 1345 (3%)

2015 Result:
Labour Dawn Butler 29,216 62.1 +20.9
Conservative Alan Mendoza7 9,567 20.3 +9.2
Liberal Democrat Lauren Keith8 3,937 8.4 -35.8
Green Shahrar Ali9 1,912 4.1 +2.6
UKIP Stephen Priestley 1,850 3.9 N/A
TUSC John Boyle 235 0.5 N/A
Communities United Kamran Malik 170 0.4 N/A
Independent Noel Coonan 145 0.3 N/A
Majority 19,649 41.8
Turnout 47,032 61.1 -0.1

Leave Vote: 42.9%

Sitting MP: Dawn Butler (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Brent North

2010 Result:
Conservative: 16486 (31.5%)
Labour: 24514 (46.9%)
Lib Dem: 8879 (17%)
Green: 725 (1.4%)
UKIP: 380 (0.7%)
English Dem: 247 (0.5%)
Independent: 734 (1.4%)
Others: 333 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 8028 (15.4%)

2015 Result:
Labour Barry Gardiner 28,351 54.3 +7.4
Conservative Luke Parker 17,517 33.5 +2.0
Liberal Democrat Paul Lorber 2,607 5.0 −12.0
UKIP Alan Craig 2,024 3.9 +3.1
Green Scott Bartle 1,539 2.9 +1.6
Independent Elcena Jeffers 197 0.4 +0.4
Majority 10,834 20.7 5.3
Turnout 52,235 63.5 +1.2

Leave Vote: 42.6%

Sitting MP: Barry Gardiner (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Chipping Barnet

2010 Result:
Conservative: 24700 (48.8%)
Labour: 12773 (25.2%)
Lib Dem: 10202 (20.2%)
Green: 1021 (2%)
UKIP: 1442 (2.8%)
Independent: 470 (0.9%)
MAJORITY: 11927 (23.6%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Theresa Villiers 25,759 48.6 –0.2
Labour Amy Trevethan 18,103 34.1 +8.9
UKIP Victor Kaye 4,151 7.8 +5.0
Green Audrey Poppy 2,501 4.7 +2.7
Liberal Democrat Marisha Ray 10 2,381 4.5 –15.7
Independent Mehdi Akhavan 118 0.2 +0.2
Majority 7,656 14.4 –9.2
Turnout 53,013 68.1 +3.0

Leave Vote: 41.1%

Sitting MP: Theresa Villiers (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Finchley & Golders Green

2010 Result:
Conservative: 21688 (46%)
Labour: 15879 (33.7%)
Lib Dem: 8036 (17%)
Green: 737 (1.6%)
UKIP: 817 (1.7%)
MAJORITY: 5809 (12.3%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Mike Freer9 25,835 50.9 +4.9
Labour Sarah Sackman9 20,173 39.7 +6.1
UKIP Richard King10 1,732 3.4 +1.7
Liberal Democrat Jonathan Davies11 1,662 3.3 −13.8
Green Adele Ward12 1,357 2.7 +1.1
Majority 5,662 11.2 −1.1
Turnout 50,759 70.0 +8.9

Leave Vote: 31.1%

Sitting MP: Mike Freer (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Hampstead & Kilburn

2010 Result:
Conservative: 17290 (32.7%)
Labour: 17332 (32.8%)
Lib Dem: 16491 (31.2%)
BNP: 328 (0.6%)
Green: 759 (1.4%)
UKIP: 408 (0.8%)
Independent: 91 (0.2%)
Others: 123 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 42 (0.1%)

2015 Result:
Labour Tulip Siddiq 23,977 44.4 +11.6
Conservative Simon Marcus 22,839 42.3 +9.6
Liberal Democrat Maajid Nawaz 3,039 5.6 −25.6
Green Rebecca Johnson 2,387 4.4 +3.0
UKIP Magnus Nielsen 1,532 2.8 +2.1
Independent The Eurovisionary Carroll * 113 0.2 N/A
U Party Robin Ellison 77 0.1 N/A
Majority 1,138 2.1 +2.0
Turnout 53,964 67.3 +1.0

Leave Vote: 23.7%

Sitting MP: Tulip Siddiq (Lab)
Prediction: Conservative gain

Very difficult to predict, even though if it wasn’t in central London, I’d be predicting an automatic Conservative gain. A very small Leave vote here, this result may well depend on whether people vote on Brexit as a single issue. Tulip Siddiq has been a vocal Remain supporter and her best bet is to concentrate on that single issue. If the Tory vote holds up and any Labour votes seep to the LibDems, then Ms Siddiq is toast. I suspect that might well happen.

Harrow East

2010 Result:
Conservative: 21435 (44.7%)
Labour: 18032 (37.6%)
Lib Dem: 6850 (14.3%)
Green: 793 (1.7%)
UKIP: 896 (1.9%)
MAJORITY: 3403 (7.1%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Bob Blackman 24,668 50.3 +5.7
Labour Uma Kumaran 19,911 40.6 +3.1
UKIP Aidan Powlesland 2,333 4.8 +2.9
Liberal Democrat Ross Barlow 1,037 2.1 -12.2
Green Emma Wallace 846 1.7 +0.1
TUSC Nana Asante 205 0.4 +0.4
Majority 4,757 9.7 +2.6
Turnout 49,000 69.0 +1.9

Leave Vote: 49.7%

Sitting MP: Bob Blackman (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Harrow West

2010 Result:
Conservative: 16968 (36.8%)
Labour: 20111 (43.6%)
Lib Dem: 7458 (16.2%)
Green: 625 (1.4%)
UKIP: 954 (2.1%)
MAJORITY: 3143 (6.8%)

2015 Result:
Labour Co-op Gareth Thomas 21,885 47.0 +3.3
Conservative Hannah David 19,677 42.2 +5.4
UKIP Ali Bhatti 2,047 4.3 +2.2
Liberal Democrat Chris Noyce 1,567 3.3 −12.9
Green Rowan Langley 1,310 2.8 +1.4
Independent Kailash Trivedi 117 0.2 N/A
Majority 2,208 4.7 −2.1
Turnout 46,603 66.9 −0.7

Leave Vote: 41.9%

Sitting MP: Gareth Thomas (Lab)
Prediction: Conservative gain

The Labour vote has been declining here, partly for demographic reasons. The Tories had hoped to take this seat last time, but they are odds on to do so now.

Hendon

2010 Result:
Conservative: 19635 (42.3%)
Labour: 19529 (42.1%)
Lib Dem: 5734 (12.4%)
Green: 518 (1.1%)
UKIP: 958 (2.1%)
MAJORITY: 106 (0.2%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Matthew Offord 24,328 49.0 +6.7
Labour Andrew Dismore 20,604 41.5 −0.6
UKIP Raymond Shamash7 2,595 5.2 +3.2
Liberal Democrat Alasdair Hill 1,088 2.2 −10.2
Green Ben Samuel 1,015 2.0 +0.9
Majority 3,724 7.5 +7.3
Turnout 49,630 65.9 +7.1

Leave Vote: 41.6%

Sitting MP: Matthew Offord
Prediction: Conservative hold

One of those seats that defies predictions and remains Conservative. It will do so again.

Hornsey & Wood Green

2010 Result:
Conservative: 9174 (16.7%)
Labour: 18720 (34%)
Lib Dem: 25595 (46.5%)
Green: 1261 (2.3%)
Independent: 201 (0.4%)
Others: 91 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 6875 (12.5%)

2015 Result:
Labour Catherine West10 29,417 50.9 +16.9
Liberal Democrat Lynne Featherstone 18,359 31.8 -14.7
Conservative Suhail Rahuja 5,347 9.3 -7.4
Green Gordon Peters 3,146 5.4 +3.2
UKIP Clive Morrison11 1,271 2.2 n/a
Christian Peoples Helen Spiby-Vann 118 0.2 n/a
Workers Revolutionary Frank Sweeney 82 0.1 n/a
Hoi Polloi Geoff Moseley 45 0.1 n/a
Majority 11,058 19.1
Turnout 57,785 72.9 +4.0

Leave Vote: 18.2%

Sitting MP: Catherine West (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

If Lynne Featherstone had been standing again here I’d have predicted she would give Catherine West a run for her money, but an 11k majority is surely too much for a LibDem candidate to overturn. Having said that, this has one of the highest Remain votes in the country and if there is enough anti-Corbyn feeling here, you never know.

Ruislip, Northwood & Pinner

2010 Result:
Conservative: 28866 (57.5%)
Labour: 9806 (19.5%)
Lib Dem: 8345 (16.6%)
Green: 740 (1.5%)
UKIP: 1351 (2.7%)
Christian: 198 (0.4%)
Others: 899 (1.8%)
MAJORITY: 19060 (38%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Nick Hurd 30,521 59.6 +2.1
Labour Michael Borio 10,297 20.1 +0.6
UKIP Gerard Barry12 5,598 10.9 +8.2
Liberal Democrat Josh Dixon 2,537 5.0 -11.7
Green Karen Pillai13 1,801 3.5 +2.0
TUSC Wally Kennedy 302 0.6 +0.6
NLP Sockalingam Yogalingam14 166 0.3 +0.3
Majority 20,224 39.5 +1.5
Turnout 51,222 70.0 -0.8

Leave Vote: 49.5%

Sitting MP: Nick Hurd (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

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General Election Predictions

General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 66. London North East

7 May 2017 at 10:08

LONDON NORTH EAST

Seats: 11
Current Political Makeup: Con 2, Lab 9
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 4, Lab 7

Chingford & Woodford Green

2010 Result:
Conservative: 22743 (52.8%)
Labour: 9780 (22.7%)
Lib Dem: 7242 (16.8%)
BNP: 1288 (3%)
Green: 650 (1.5%)
UKIP: 1133 (2.6%)
Independent: 202 (0.5%)
Others: 68 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 12963 (30.1%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Iain Duncan Smith 20,999 47.9 -4.8
Labour Bilal Mahmood 12,613 28.8 +6.1
UKIP Freddy Vachha 5,644 12.9 +10.3
Liberal Democrat Anne Crook 2,400 5.5 -11.3
Green Rebecca Tully 1,854 4.2 +2.7
TUSC Len Hockey8 241 0.6 N/A
Class War Lisa Mckenzie 53 0.1 N/A
Majority 8,386 19.1 -11.0
Turnout 43,804 65.7 -0.8

Leave Vote: 49.9%

Sitting MP: Iain Duncan Smith (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Edmonton

2010 Result:
Conservative: 12052 (29.8%)
Labour: 21665 (53.7%)
Lib Dem: 4252 (10.5%)
Green: 516 (1.3%)
UKIP: 1036 (2.6%)
Christian: 350 (0.9%)
Independent: 127 (0.3%)
Others: 379 (0.9%)
MAJORITY: 9613 (23.8%)

2015 Result:
Labour Co-op Kate Osamor 25,388 61.4 +7.8
Conservative Gonul Daniels 9,969 24.1 -5.7
UKIP Neville Watson 3,366 8.1 +5.6
Green Douglas Coker 1,358 3.3 +2.0
Liberal Democrat David Schmitz 897 2.2 -8.3
TUSC Lewis Peacock 360 0.9 +0.9
Majority 15,419 37.3 +13.5
Turnout 41,338 62.6 -0.6

Leave Vote: 47.3%

Sitting MP: Kate Osamor (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Enfield North

2010 Result:
Conservative: 18804 (42.3%)
Labour: 17112 (38.5%)
Lib Dem: 5403 (12.2%)
BNP: 1228 (2.8%)
Green: 489 (1.1%)
UKIP: 938 (2.1%)
English Dem: 131 (0.3%)
Christian: 161 (0.4%)
Independent: 91 (0.2%)
Others: 96 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 1692 (3.8%)

2015 Result;
Labour Joan Ryan9 20,172 43.7 +5.2
Conservative Nick de Bois 19,086 41.4 −0.9
UKIP Deborah Cairns 4,133 9.0 +6.8
Green David Flint 10 1,303 2.8 +1.7
Liberal Democrat Cara Jenkinson 1,059 2.3 −9.9
Christian Peoples Yemi Awolola11 207 0.4 N/A
TUSC Joe Simpson12 177 0.4 N/A
Majority 1,086 2.4
Turnout 46,137 67.7 +0.6

Leave Vote: 47.9%

Sitting MP: Joan Ryan (Lab)
Prediction: Conservative gain

This seat went Tory in 2010 but Labour narrowly won it back in 2015. Nick de Bois is standing again. There isn’t a huge UKIP vote for him to eat into here, but even if only a quarter of it comes over to him, it’s enough to overturn Ryan’s majority. Given the LibDem vote dropped by 75% last time, and this seat had a majority Remain vote, one can expect them to suck quite a few votes from Labour. In addition, this is just the kind of suburban seat that doesn’t warm to a unilateralist Labour leader.

Enfield Southgate

2010 Result:
Conservative: 21928 (49.4%)
Labour: 14302 (32.2%)
Lib Dem: 6124 (13.8%)
Green: 632 (1.4%)
UKIP: 505 (1.1%)
Respect: 174 (0.4%)
English Dem: 173 (0.4%)
Independent: 391 (0.9%)
Others: 123 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 7626 (17.2%)

2015 Result:
Conservative David Burrowes 22,624 49.4 0.0
Labour Bambos Charalambous 17,871 39.0 +6.8
UKIP David Schofield 2,109 4.6 +3.5
Green Jean Robertson-Molloy 1,690 3.7 +2.3
Liberal Democrat Paul Smith 1,518 3.3 −10.5
Majority 4,753 10.4 -6.8
Turnout 45,812 70.5 +1.3

Leave Vote: 37.6%

Sitting MP: David Burrowes (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Hackney North & Stoke Newington

2010 Result:
Conservative: 6759 (14.5%)
Labour: 25553 (55%)
Lib Dem: 11092 (23.9%)
Green: 2133 (4.6%)
Christian: 299 (0.6%)
Independent: 96 (0.2%)
Others: 529 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 14461 (31.1%)

2015 Result:
Labour Diane Abbott 31,357 62.9 +7.9
Conservative Amy Gray 7,349 14.7 +0.2
Green Heather Finlay 7,281 14.6 +10.0
Liberal Democrat Simon de Deney 2,492 5.0 −18.9
UKIP Keith Fraser 1,085 2.2 +2.2
Animal Welfare Jon Homan 221 0.5 +0.5
Communist League Jonathan Silberman 102 0.2 +0.2
Majority 24,008 48.1 +17.0
Turnout 49,887 60.0 −2.9

Leave Vote: 20.5%

Sitting MP: Diane Abbott (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Ilford North

2010 Result:
Conservative: 21506 (45.7%)
Labour: 16102 (34.2%)
Lib Dem: 5966 (12.7%)
BNP: 1545 (3.3%)
Green: 572 (1.2%)
UKIP: 871 (1.9%)
Others: 456 (1%)
MAJORITY: 5404 (11.5%)

2015 Result:
Labour Wes Streeting 21,463 43.9 +9.6
Conservative Lee Scott 20,874 42.7 −3.1
UKIP Philip Hyde 4,355 8.9 +7.0
Liberal Democrat Richard Clare 1,130 2.3 −10.4
Green David Reynolds 1,023 2.1 +0.9
Independent Doris Osen 87 0.2 N/A
Majority 589 1.2
Turnout 48,932 65.0 -0.2

Leave Vote: 53.3%

Sitting MP: Wes Streeting (Lab)
Prediction: Conservative gain

I didn’t think this seat would fall to Labour last time, but it did. Lee Scott is restanding. I think a lot will depend on the demographics and how they have changed since 2015. I suspect not a lot. Wes Streeting has proved to be a popular MP in Westminster and a good constituency MP, but that won’t be enough to save him, I suspect.

Ilford South

2010 Result:
Conservative: 14014 (27.4%)
Labour: 25301 (49.4%)
Lib Dem: 8679 (17%)
Green: 1319 (2.6%)
UKIP: 1132 (2.2%)
Others: 746 (1.5%)
MAJORITY: 11287 (22%)

2015 Result:
Labour Co-op Mike Gapes5 33,232 64.0 +14.6
Conservative Christopher Chapman 13,455 25.9 −1.5
UKIP Amjad Khan6 2,705 5.2 +3.0
Green Rosemary Warrington7 1,506 2.9 +0.3
Liberal Democrat Ashburn Holder 1,014 2.0 −15.0
Majority 19,777 38.1 +16.0
Turnout 51,912 56.4 −1.6

Leave Vote: 43.3%

Sitting MP: Mike Gapes (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Islington North

2010 Result:
Conservative: 6339 (14.2%)
Labour: 24276 (54.5%)
Lib Dem: 11875 (26.7%)
Green: 1348 (3%)
UKIP: 716 (1.6%)
MAJORITY: 12401 (27.8%)

2015 Result:
Labour Jeremy Corbyn 29,659 60.2 +5.8
Conservative Alex Burghart 8,465 17.2 +3.0
Green Caroline Russell 5,043 10.2 +7.2
Liberal Democrat Julian Gregory 3,984 8.1 −18.6
UKIP Greg Clough 1,971 4.0 +2.4
Socialist (GB) Bill Martin 112 0.2 N/A
Majority 21,194 43.0 +15.2
Turnout 49,234 67.1 +1.7

Leave Vote: 23.4%

Sitting MP: Jeremy Corbyn (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Leyton & Wanstead

2010 Result:
Conservative: 8928 (22.2%)
Labour: 17511 (43.6%)
Lib Dem: 11095 (27.6%)
BNP: 561 (1.4%)
Green: 562 (1.4%)
UKIP: 1080 (2.7%)
Christian: 342 (0.9%)
Others: 80 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 6416 (16%)

2015 Result:
Labour John Cryer 23,858 58.6 +15.0
Conservative Matthew Scott 8,939 22.0 −0.3
Green Ashley Gunstock8 2,974 7.3 +5.9
UKIP Rosamund Beattie9 2,341 5.8 +3.1
Liberal Democrat Carl Quilliam10 2,304 5.7 −22.0
Independent Mahtab Aziz 289 0.7 N/A
Majority 14,919 36.7 +20.7
Turnout 40,705 63.0 −0.2

Leave Vote: 34.8%

Sitting MP: John Cryer (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Tottenham

2010 Result:
Conservative: 6064 (14.9%)
Labour: 24128 (59.3%)
Lib Dem: 7197 (17.7%)
Green: 980 (2.4%)
UKIP: 466 (1.1%)
Christian: 262 (0.6%)
TUSC: 1057 (2.6%)
Independent: 143 (0.4%)
Others: 390 (1%)
MAJORITY: 16931 (41.6%)

2015 Result:
Labour David Lammy 28,654 67.3 +8.0
Conservative Stefan Mrozinski 5,090 12.0 −2.9
Green Dee Searle12 3,931 9.2 +6.8
Liberal Democrat Turhan Ozen 1,756 4.1 −13.6
UKIP Tariq Saeed 1,512 3.6 +2.4
TUSC Jenny Sutton13 1,324 3.1 +0.5
Peace Tania Mahmood14 291 0.7 +0.7
Majority 23,564 55.4 +13.8
Turnout 42,558 60.1 +1.9

Leave Vote: 33.3%

Sitting MP: David Lammy (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Walthamstow

2010 Result:
Conservative: 5734 (14%)
Labour: 21252 (51.8%)
Lib Dem: 11774 (28.7%)
Green: 767 (1.9%)
UKIP: 823 (2%)
Christian: 248 (0.6%)
TUSC: 279 (0.7%)
Independent: 117 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 9478 (23.1%)

2015 Result:
Labour Co-op Stella Creasy 28,779 68.9 +17.0
Conservative Molly Samuels 5,584 13.4 −0.6
Green Michael Gold 2,661 6.4 +4.5
UKIP Paul Hillman 2,507 6.0 +4.0
Liberal Democrat Stephen Cheung 1,661 4.0 −24.7
TUSC Nancy Taaffe 394 0.9 +0.3
Independent Ellie Merton 129 0.3 N/A
Workers Revolutionary Jonty Leff 81 0.2 N/A
Majority 23,195 55.5 +32.4
Turnout 41,796 62.4 -1.0

Leave Vote: 36%

Sitting MP: Stella Creasy (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE

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General Election Predictions

General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 65. Derbyshire

7 May 2017 at 09:27

DERBYSHIRE

Seats: 11
Current Political Makeup: Con 7, Labour 4
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 8, Lab 3

1. Amber Valley

2010 Result:
Conservative: 17746 (38.6%)
Labour: 17210 (37.4%)
Lib Dem: 6636 (14.4%)
BNP: 3195 (7%)
UKIP: 906 (2%)
Others: 265 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 536 (1.2%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Nigel Mills8 20,106 44.0 +5.4
Labour Kevin Gillott9 15,901 34.8 -2.7
UKIP Stuart Bent 7,263 15.9 +13.9
Liberal Democrat Kate Smith 1,360 3.0 -11.5
Green John Devine10 1,087 2.4 +2.4
Majority 4,205 9.2
Turnout 45,717 65.1

Leave Vote: 65.3%

Sitting MP: Nigel Mills (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

2. Bolsover

2010 Result:
Conservative: 10812 (24.6%)
Labour: 21994 (50%)
Lib Dem: 6821 (15.5%)
BNP: 2640 (6%)
UKIP: 1721 (3.9%)
MAJORITY: 11182 (25.4%)

2015 Result
Labour Dennis Skinner 22,542 51.2 +1.2
Conservative Peter Bedford 10,764 24.5 -0.1
UKIP Ray Calladine 9,228 21.0 +17.1
Liberal Democrat David Lomax 1,464 3.3 -12.2
Majority 11,778 26.8
Turnout 43,998 61.1

Leave Vote: 70.4%

Sitting MP: Dennis Skinner (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

3. Chesterfield

2010 Result:
Conservative: 7214 (15.7%)
Labour: 17891 (39%)
Lib Dem: 17342 (37.8%)
Green: 600 (1.3%)
UKIP: 1432 (3.1%)
English Dem: 1213 (2.6%)
Independent: 147 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 549 (1.2%)

2015 Result:
Labour Toby Perkins 21,829 47.9 +8.9
Conservative Mark Vivis 8,231 18.1 +2.3
UKIP Stuart Yeowart8 7,523 16.5 +13.4
Liberal Democrat Julia Cambridge9 6,301 13.8 -24
Green Matthew Genn10 1,352 3.0 +1.7
TUSC Matt Whale11 202 0.4 +0.4
Peace Tommy Holgate12 129 0.3 +0.3
Majority 13,598 29.8 +28.6
Turnout 45,567 63.2 -0.6

Leave Vote: 59.3%

Sitting MP: Toby Perkins (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

4. Derby North

2010 Result:
Conservative: 14283 (31.7%)
Labour: 14896 (33%)
Lib Dem: 12638 (28%)
BNP: 2000 (4.4%)
UKIP: 829 (1.8%)
Independent: 264 (0.6%)
Others: 170 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 613 (1.4%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Amanda Solloway8 16,402 36.7 +5.0
Labour Chris Williamson 16,361 36.6 +3.5
UKIP Tilly Ward9 6,532 14.6 +12.8
Liberal Democrat Lucy Care10 3,832 8.6 -19.5
Green Alice Mason-Power11 1,618 3.6 +3.6
Majority 41 0.1
Turnout 44,745 69.1 +6.0

Leave Vote: 54.3%

Sitting MP: Amanda Solloway (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

One of the titghtest seats in the country, and Amanda Solloway cannot be 100% of holding this seat. However, the local elections will have encouraged her and are partly why I think the seat will remain Tory. She can also look forward to half of the UKIP vote coming to her.

5. Derby South

2010 Result:
Conservative: 11729 (28.5%)
Labour: 17851 (43.3%)
Lib Dem: 8430 (20.5%)
UKIP: 1821 (4.4%)
Independent: 1357 (3.3%)
MAJORITY: 6122 (14.9%)

2015 Result:
Labour Margaret Beckett 20,007 49.0 +5.7
Conservative Evonne Williams7 11,179 27.4 -1.1
UKIP Victor Webb 6,341 15.5 +11.1
Liberal Democrat Joe Naitta8 1,717 4.2 -16.3
Green David Foster9 1,208 3.0 +3
TUSC Chris Fernandez10 225 0.6 +0.6
British Independents David Gale1112 143 0.4 +0.4
Majority 8,828 21.6 +6.7
Turnout 40,820 58.1 +0.1

Leave Vote: 61.4%

Sitting MP: Margaret Beckett (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

6. Derbyshire Dales

2010 Result:
Conservative: 24378 (52.1%)
Labour: 9061 (19.4%)
Lib Dem: 10512 (22.5%)
Green: 772 (1.7%)
UKIP: 1779 (3.8%)
Others: 278 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 13866 (29.6%)

2015 Results:
Conservative Patrick McLoughlin 24,805 52.4 +0.3
Labour Andy Botham 10,761 22.7 +3.4
UKIP John Young 5,508 11.6 +7.8
Liberal Democrat Ben Fearn 3,965 8.4 −14.1
Green Ian Wood 2,173 4.6 +2.9
Humanity Amila Y’Mech 149 0.3 +0.2
Majority 14,044 29.7 +0.1
Turnout 47,361 74.6 +0.8

Leave Vote: 51.2%

Sitting MP: Patrick McLoughlin (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

7. Erewash

2010 Result:
Conservative: 18805 (39.5%)
Labour: 16304 (34.2%)
Lib Dem: 8343 (17.5%)
BNP: 2337 (4.9%)
Green: 534 (1.1%)
UKIP: 855 (1.8%)
Independent: 464 (1%)
MAJORITY: 2501 (5.2%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Maggie Throup 20,636 42.7 +3.2
Labour Catherine Atkinson 17,052 35.3 +1.1
UKIP Philip Rose 7,792 16.1 +14.3
Liberal Democrat Martin Garnett 1,658 3.4 −14.1
Green Ralph Hierons 1,184 2.5 +1.3
Majority 3,584 7.4 +2.2
Turnout 48,322 67.2

Leave Vote: 63.2%

Sitting MP: Maggie Throup (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

8. High Peak

2010 Result:
Conservative: 20587 (40.9%)
Labour: 15910 (31.6%)
Lib Dem: 10993 (21.8%)
Green: 922 (1.8%)
UKIP: 1690 (3.4%)
Independent: 161 (0.3%)
Others: 74 (0.1%)
MAJORITY: 4677 (9.3%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Andrew Bingham 22,836 45.0 +4.1
Labour Caitlin Bisknell 17,942 35.3 +3.7
UKIP Ian Guiver 5,811 11.4 +8.0
Liberal Democrat Stephen Worrall 2,389 4.7 −17.1
Green Charlotte Farrell 1,811 3.6 +1.8
Majority 4,894 9.6 +0.3
Turnout 50,789 69.5 −0.4

Leave Vote: 50.5%

Sitting MP: Andrew Bingham (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

9. Mid Derbyshire

2010 Result:
Conservative: 22877 (48.3%)
Labour: 11585 (24.5%)
Lib Dem: 9711 (20.5%)
BNP: 1698 (3.6%)
UKIP: 1252 (2.6%)
Others: 219 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 11292 (23.9%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Pauline Latham 24,908 52.2 +3.9
Labour Nicola Heaton 12,134 25.4 +1.0
UKIP Martin Fitzpatrick 6,497 13.6 +11
Liberal Democrat Hilary Jones4 2,292 4.8 -15.7
Green Sue MacFarlane5 1,898 4.0 +4.0
Majority 12,774 26.8 +2.9
Turnout 47,729 70.6 -0.8

Leave Vote: 52.5%

Sitting MP: Pauline Latham (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

10. North East Derbyshire

2010 Result:
Conservative: 15503 (33%)
Labour: 17948 (38.2%)
Lib Dem: 10947 (23.3%)
UKIP: 2636 (5.6%)
MAJORITY: 2445 (5.2%)

2015 Result:
Labour Natascha Engel5 19,488 40.6 +2.4
Conservative Lee Rowley5 17,605 36.7 +3.7
UKIP James Bush6 7,631 15.9 +10.3
Liberal Democrat David Batey7 2,004 4.2 -19.1
Green David Kesteven8 1,059 2.2 N/A
Independent Rob Lane 161 0.3 N/A
Majority 1,883 3.9 -1.3
Turnout 47,948 67.1 +1.2

Leave Vote: 62.1%

Sitting MP: Natascha Engel (Lab)
Prediction: Conservative gain

11. South Derbyshire

2010 Result:
Conservative: 22935 (45.5%)
Labour: 15807 (31.4%)
Lib Dem: 8012 (15.9%)
BNP: 2193 (4.3%)
UKIP: 1206 (2.4%)
Others: 266 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 7128 (14.1%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Heather Wheeler 25,066 49.4 +3.9
Labour Cheryl Pidgeon5 13,595 26.8 −4.6
UKIP Alan Graves6 8,998 17.7 +15.3
Liberal Democrat Lorraine Johnson 1,887 3.7 −12.2
Green Marianne Bamkin7 1,216 2.4 +2.4
Majority 11,471 22.6
Turnout 50,762 68.2

Leave Vote: 60.4%

Sitting MP: Heather Wheeler (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

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General Election Predictions

General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 64: Northamptonshire

7 May 2017 at 01:04

NORTHAMPTONSHIRE

Seats: 7
Current Political Makeup: Con 7
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 7

1. Corby

2010 Result:
Conservative: 22886 (42.2%)
Labour: 20991 (38.7%)
Lib Dem: 7834 (14.4%)
BNP: 2525 (4.7%)
MAJORITY: 1895 (3.5%)

BY ELECTION

Andy Sawford (Labour) 17267 48.4% (+9.8%)
Christine Emmett (Conservative) 9476 26.6% (-15.6%)
Margot Parker (UKIP) 5108 14.3% (n/a)
Jill Hope (Liberal Democrat) 1770 5% (-9.5%)
Gordon Riddell (BNP) 614 1.7% (-3%)
David Wickham (English Democrat) 432 1.2% (n/a)
Jonathan Hornett (Green) 378 1.1% (n/a)
Ian Gillman (Independent) 212 0.6% (n/a)
Peter Reynolds (Cannabis Law Reform) 137 0.4% (n/a)
David Bishop (Elvis Loves Pets) 99 0.3% (n/a)
Mr Mozzarella (Independent) 73 0.2% (n/a)
Rohen Kapur (Young People) 39 0.1% (n/a)
Adam Lotun (Democracy 2015) 35 0.1% (n/a)
Christopher Scotton (United People) 25 0.1% (n/a)
MAJORITY 7791 21.8%
Turnout 44.8% (-24.4%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Tom Pursglove 24,023 42.8 +0.6
Labour Co-op Andy Sawford 21,611 38.5 -0.2
UKIP Margot Parker 7,708 13.7 N/A
Liberal Democrat Peter Harris 1,458 2.6 -11.8
Green Jonathan Hornett 1,374 2.4 N/A
Majority 2,412 4.3 +0.7
Turnout 56,174 70.4 +1.2

Leave Vote: 60.1%

Sitting MP: Tom Pursglove (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

I suppose in theory Labour might be hoping to win this back but in all seriousness, I can’t see it.

2. Daventry

2010 Result:
Conservative: 29252 (56.5%)
Labour: 8168 (15.8%)
Lib Dem: 10064 (19.4%)
Green: 770 (1.5%)
UKIP: 2333 (4.5%)
English Dem: 1187 (2.3%)
MAJORITY: 19188 (37.1%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Chris Heaton-Harris5 30,550 58.2 +1.7
Labour Abigail Campbell6 9,491 18.1 +2.3
UKIP Michael Gerard7 8,296 15.8 +11.3
Liberal Democrat Callum Delhoy8 2,352 4.5 -15
Green Steve Whiffen 1,829 3.5 +2
Majority 21,059 40.1 +3
Turnout 52,518 72.2 -0.3

Leave Vote: 58.6%

Sitting MP: Chris Heaton-Harris (Con
Prediction: Conservative hold

3. Kettering

2010 Result:
Conservative: 23247 (49.1%)
Labour: 14153 (29.9%)
Lib Dem: 7498 (15.8%)
BNP: 1366 (2.9%)
English Dem: 952 (2%)
Others: 112 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 9094 (19.2%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Philip Hollobone 24,467 51.8 +2.7
Labour Rhea Keehn6 11,877 25.2 -4.8
UKIP Jonathan Bullock7 7,600 16.1 +16.1
Green Rob Reeves8 1,633 3.5 N/A
Liberal Democrat Chris McGlynn 1,490 3.2 -12.7
English Democrat Derek Hilling 9 151 0.3 -1.7
Majority 12,590 26.7
Turnout 67.3

Leave Vote: 61%

Sitting MP: Philip Hollobone
Prediction: Conservative hold

UKIP aren’t standing here. Watch Hollobone’s majority rocket.

4. Northampton North

2010 Result:
Conservative: 13735 (34.1%)
Labour: 11799 (29.3%)
Lib Dem: 11250 (27.9%)
BNP: 1316 (3.3%)
Green: 443 (1.1%)
UKIP: 1238 (3.1%)
Christian: 98 (0.2%)
Independent: 334 (0.8%)
Others: 58 (0.1%)
MAJORITY: 1936 (4.8%

2015 Result:
Conservative Michael Ellis 16,699 42.4 +8.3
Labour Sally Keeble 13,454 34.1 +4.8
UKIP Tom Rubython6 6,354 16.1 +13.0
Green Tony Clarke7 1,503 3.8 +2.7
Liberal Democrat Angela Paterson 1,401 3.6 -24.4
Majority 3,245 8.2

Leave Vote: 60.3%

Sitting MP: Michael Ellis (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

5. Northampton South

2010 Result:
Conservative: 15917 (40.8%)
Labour: 9913 (25.4%)
Lib Dem: 7579 (19.4%)
Green: 363 (0.9%)
UKIP: 1897 (4.9%)
English Dem: 618 (1.6%)
Independent: 2242 (5.8%)
Others: 449 (1.2%)
MAJORITY: 6004 (15.4%)

2015 Result:
Conservative David Mackintosh 16,163 41.6 +0.7
Labour Kevin McKeever 12,370 31.8 +6.4
UKIP Rose Gibbins 7,114 18.3 +13.4
Liberal Democrat Sadik Chaudhury 1,673 4.3 -15.1
Green Julie Hawkins 1,403 3.6 +2.7
Majority 3,793 9.8
Turnout 38,884 63.4 +5.2

Sitting MP: David Macintosh (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Macintosh has stood down. If he hadn’t this seat might have gone back to Labour. It still might, but it’s doubtful.

6. South Northamptonshire

2010 Result:
Conservative: 33081 (55.2%)
Labour: 10380 (17.3%)
Lib Dem: 12603 (21%)
Green: 685 (1.1%)
UKIP: 2406 (4%)
English Dem: 735 (1.2%)
MAJORITY: 20478 (34.2%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Andrea Leadsom 36,607 60.1 +4.9
Labour Lucy Mills 10,191 16.7 -0.6
UKIP Roger Clark 8,204 13.5 +9.5
Liberal Democrat Tom Snowdon 3,613 5.9 -15.1
Green Damon Boughen 2,247 3.7 +2.5
Majority 26,416 43.4
Turnout 60,862 71.1

Leave Vote: 53.3%

Sitting MP: Andrea Leadsom (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

7. Wellingborough

2010 Result:
Conservative: 24918 (48.2%)
Labour: 13131 (25.4%)
Lib Dem: 8848 (17.1%)
BNP: 1596 (3.1%)
Green: 480 (0.9%)
UKIP: 1636 (3.2%)
English Dem: 530 (1%)
TUSC: 249 (0.5%)
Independent: 240 (0.5%)
Others: 33 (0.1%)
MAJORITY: 11787 (22.8%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Peter Bone 26,265 52.1 +3.8
UKIP Jonathan Munday7 9,868 19.6 +16.4
Labour Richard Garvie1 9,839 19.5 -5.9
Liberal Democrat Chris Nelson 2,240 4.4 -12.7
Green Marion-Turner-Hawes 2,218 4.4 +3.5
Majority 16,397 32.5
Turnout 50,430 65.4 -1.8

Leave Vote: 63%

Sitting MP: Peter Bone (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

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General Election Predictions

General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 63: Leicestershire

7 May 2017 at 00:16

LEICESTERSHIRE

Seats: 10
Current Political Makeup: Con 7, Lab 3
Predicted Political Makeup after June 8: Con 7, Lab 3

1. Bosworth

2010 Result:
Conservative: 23132 (42.6%)
Labour: 8674 (16%)
Lib Dem: 18100 (33.3%)
BNP: 2458 (4.5%)
UKIP: 1098 (2%)
English Dem: 615 (1.1%)
Others: 197 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 5032 (9.3%)

2015 Result:
Conservative David Tredinnick 22,939 42.8 +0.2
Liberal Democrat Michael Mullaney 11,951 22.3 −11.0
Labour Chris Kealey 9,354 17.5 +1.5
UKIP David Sprason 9,338 17.4 +15.4
Majority 10,988 20.5 +11.2
Turnout 53,582 67 -3.2

Leave Result: 60.8%

Sitting MP: David Tredinnick (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

2. Charnwood

2010 Result:
Conservative: 26560 (49.6%)
Labour: 10536 (19.7%)
Lib Dem: 11531 (21.5%)
BNP: 3116 (5.8%)
UKIP: 1799 (3.4%)
MAJORITY: 15029 (28.1%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Ed Argar8 28,384 54.3 +4.7
Labour Sean Kelly-Walsh 9 11,453 21.9 +2.2
UKIP Lynton Yates10 8,330 15.9 +12.6
Liberal Democrat Simon Sansome 3,605 6.9 -14.6
BNP Cathy Duffy 489 0.9 -4.9
Majority 16,931 32.4 +4.3
Turnout 52,261 67.6 -4.3

Leave Vote: 57.9%

Sitting MP: Ed Argar (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

3. Harborough

010 Result:
Conservative: 26894 (48.9%)
Labour: 6981 (12.7%)
Lib Dem: 17097 (31.1%)
BNP: 1715 (3.1%)
UKIP: 1462 (2.7%)
English Dem: 568 (1%)
Independent: 228 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 9797 (17.8%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Edward Garnier 27,675 52.7 +3.8
Labour Sundip Meghani 8,043 15.3 +2.6
UKIP Mark Hunt 7,539 14.4 +11.7
Liberal Democrat Zuffar Haq 7,037 13.4 -17.7
Green Darren Woodiwiss 2,177 4.1 N/A
Majority 19,632 37.4
Turnout 52,471 67.5 -2.9

Leave Vote: 52.4%

Sitting MP: Edward Garnier (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

4. Leicester East

2010 Result:
Conservative: 11722 (24.4%)
Labour: 25804 (53.8%)
Lib Dem: 6817 (14.2%)
BNP: 1700 (3.5%)
Green: 733 (1.5%)
UKIP: 725 (1.5%)
Others: 494 (1%)
MAJORITY: 14082 (29.3%)

2015 Result:
Labour Keith Vaz 29,386 61.1 +7.4
Conservative Kishan Devani 11,034 23.0 -1.5
UKIP Susanna Steptoe5 4,290 8.9 +7.4
Green Nimit Jethwa 6 1,468 3.1 +1.5
Liberal Democrat Dave Raval 1,233 2.6 -11.6
TUSC Michael Barker 540 1.1 N/A
Independent Tom Darwood 117 0.2 N/A
Majority 18,352 38.2
Turnout 48,599 63.7

Leave Vote: 54.1%

Sitting MP: Keith Vaz (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

5. Leicester South

2010 Result:
Conservative: 10066 (21.4%)
Labour: 21479 (45.6%)
Lib Dem: 12671 (26.9%)
BNP: 1418 (3%)
Green: 770 (1.6%)
UKIP: 720 (1.5%)
MAJORITY: 8808 (18.7%)

2015 Result:
Labour Co-op Jon Ashworth 27,493 59.8 +2.0
Conservative Leon Hadji-Nikolaou 9,628 20.9 -0.5
UKIP Peter Stone15 3,832 8.3 +6.8
Green Gabriella Garcia16 2,533 5.5 +3.9
Liberal Democrat Anita Prabhakar17 2,127 4.6 -22.3
TUSC Andrew Walton 349 0.8 N/A
Majority 17,845 38.9
Turnout 45,962 62.5

Leave Vote: 42.1%%

Sitting MP: Jonathan Ashworth (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

6. Leicester West

2010 Result:
Conservative: 9728 (27.2%)
Labour: 13745 (38.4%)
Lib Dem: 8107 (22.6%)
BNP: 2158 (6%)
Green: 639 (1.8%)
UKIP: 883 (2.5%)
TUSC: 157 (0.4%)
Independent: 181 (0.5%)
Others: 221 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 4017 (11.2%)

2015 Result:
Labour Liz Kendall 16,051 46.5 +8.1
Conservative Paul Bessant 8,848 25.6 -1.5
UKIP Stuart Young 5,950 17.2 +14.8
Green Peter Hague 1,878 5.4 +3.7
Liberal Democrat Ian Bradwell 1,507 4.4 -18.3
TUSC Heather Rawling 288 0.8 +0.4
Majority 7,203 20.9 +9.7
Turnout 34,522 54.6 -0.6

Leave Vote: 50.1%

Sitting MP: Liz Kendall (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

On a very good night for the Tories, they could in theory, take this seat, but I can’t see it.

7. Loughborough

2010 Result:
Conservative: 21971 (41.6%)
Labour: 18227 (34.5%)
Lib Dem: 9675 (18.3%)
BNP: 2040 (3.9%)
UKIP: 925 (1.8%)
MAJORITY: 3744 (7.1%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Nicky Morgan 25,762 49.5 +7.9
Labour Matthew O’Callaghan 16,579 31.9 -2.6
UKIP Bill Piper 5,704 11.0 +9.2
Liberal Democrat Stephen Coltman4 2,130 4.1 -14.2
Green Matt Sisson5 1,845 3.5 –
Majority 9,183 17.7 +10.6
Turnout 52,020 72.6 +4.4

Leave Vote: 50.1%

Sitting MP: Nicky Morgan (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

8. North West Leicestershire

2010 Result:
Conservative: 23147 (44.6%)
Labour: 15636 (30.1%)
Lib Dem: 8639 (16.6%)
BNP: 3396 (6.5%)
UKIP: 1134 (2.2%)
MAJORITY: 7511 (14.5%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Andrew Bridgen 25,505 49.5 +4.9
Labour Jamie McMahon 14,132 27.4 −2.7
UKIP Andy McWilliam11 8,704 16.9 +14.7
Liberal Democrat Mark Argent12 2,033 3.9 −12.7
Green Benjamin Gravestock13 1,174 2.3 +2.3
Majority 11,373 22.1
Turnout 51,548 71.4

Leave Vote: 60.7%

Sitting MP: Andrew Bridgen (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

9. Rutland & Melton

2010 Result:
Conservative: 28228 (51.1%)
Labour: 7893 (14.3%)
Lib Dem: 14228 (25.8%)
BNP: 1757 (3.2%)
UKIP: 2526 (4.6%)
Independent: 588 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 14000 (25.4%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Alan Duncan 30,383 55.6 +4.5
UKIP Richard Billington5 8,678 15.9 +11.3
Labour James Moore 8,383 15.4 +1.1
Liberal Democrat Ed Reynolds 4,407 8.1 −17.7
Green Alastair McQuillan 2,325 4.3 +4.3
Independent Marilyn Gordon 427 0.8 +0.8
Majority 21,705 39.8 +14.4
Turnout 54,603 68.4 −3.3

Leave Vote: 53.9%

Sitting MP: Sir Alan Duncan (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

10. South Leicestershire

2010 Result:
Conservative: 27000 (49.5%)
Labour: 11392 (20.9%)
Lib Dem: 11476 (21%)
BNP: 2721 (5%)
UKIP: 1988 (3.6%)
MAJORITY: 15524 (28.4%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Alberto Costa 28,700 53.2 +3.7
Labour Amanda Hack 11,876 22.0 +1.1
UKIP Barry Mahoney3 9,363 17.4 +13.7
Liberal Democrat Geoffrey Welsh 3,987 7.4 -13.6
Majority 16,824 31.2

Leave Vote: 58.1%

Sitting MP: Alberto Costa (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

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Alastair Campbell talks about his new novel MY NAME IS...

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General Election Predictions

General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 62: Wiltshire

6 May 2017 at 23:54

WILTSHIRE

Seats: 7
Current Political Makeup: Con 7
Predicted Political Makeup after June 8: Con 7

1. Chippenham

2010 Result:
Conservative: 21500 (41%)
Labour: 3620 (6.9%)
Lib Dem: 23970 (45.8%)
BNP: 641 (1.2%)
Green: 446 (0.9%)
UKIP: 1783 (3.4%)
English Dem: 307 (0.6%)
Christian: 118 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 2470 (4.7%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Michelle Donelan18 26,354 47.6 +6.6
Liberal Democrat Duncan Hames18 16,278 29.4 -16.4
UKIP Julia Reid19 5,884 10.6 +7.2
Labour Andy Newman20 4,561 8.2 +1.3
Green Tina Johnston 21 2,330 4.2 +3.3
Majority 10,076 18.2 13.5
Turnout 55,407 74.7 +2.0

Leave Vote: 51.2%

Sitting MP: Michelle Donelan (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

This was a Tory gain from the LibDems last time and is another of those ‘blue wall’ west country seats which the LibDems are going to have great difficulty in winning back.

2. Devizes

2010 Result:
Conservative: 25519 (55.1%)
Labour: 4711 (10.2%)
Lib Dem: 12514 (27%)
Green: 813 (1.8%)
UKIP: 2076 (4.5%)
Independent: 566 (1.2%)
Others: 141 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 13005 (28.1%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Claire Perry 28,295 57.7 +2.7
UKIP David Pollitt 7,544 15.4 +10.9
Labour Chris Watts 6,360 13.0 +2.8
Liberal Democrat Manda Rigby 3,954 8.1 −18.9
Green Emma Dawnay10 2,853 5.8 +4.1
Majority 20,751 42.3 +14.2
Turnout 49,006 70.8 +2

Leave Vote: 53.5%

Sitting MP: Claire Perry (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

3. North Swindon

2010 Result:
Conservative: 22408 (44.6%)
Labour: 15348 (30.5%)
Lib Dem: 8668 (17.2%)
BNP: 1542 (3.1%)
Green: 487 (1%)
UKIP: 1842 (3.7%)
MAJORITY: 7060 (14%)

2015 Result
Conservative Justin Tomlinson 26,295 50.3 +5.8
Labour Mark Dempsey 8 14,509 27.8 -2.7
UKIP James Faulkner9 8,011 15.3 +11.7
Green Poppy Hebden-Leeder 1,723 3.3 +2.3
Liberal Democrat Janet Ellard10 1,704 3.3 -14.0
Majority 11,786 22.6
Turnout 64.5

Leave Vote: 57.3%

Sitting MP: Justin Tomlinson (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

4. North Wiltshire

2010 Result:
Conservative: 25114 (51.6%)
Labour: 3239 (6.7%)
Lib Dem: 17631 (36.2%)
Green: 599 (1.2%)
UKIP: 1908 (3.9%)
Independent: 208 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 7483 (15.4%)

2015 Result:
Conservative James Whiteside Gray6 28,938 57.2 +5.7
Liberal Democrat Brian Mathew6 7,892 15.6 −20.6
UKIP Pat Bryant7 5,813 11.5 +7.6
Labour Peter Baldrey 4,930 9.8 +3.1
Green Phil Chamberlain8 2,350 4.6 +3.4
Independent Simon Killane6 390 0.8 N/A
Independent Giles Wareham 243 0.5 N/A
Majority 21,046 41.6 +26.2
Turnout 50,556 74.5 +1.2

Leave Vote: 50.3%

Sitting MP: James Gray (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

5. Salisbury

2010 Result:
Conservative: 23859 (49.2%)
Labour: 3690 (7.6%)
Lib Dem: 17893 (36.9%)
BNP: 765 (1.6%)
Green: 506 (1%)
UKIP: 1392 (2.9%)
Independent: 257 (0.5%)
Others: 119 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 5966 (12.3%

2015 Result:
Conservative John Glen 28,192 55.6 +6.4
Labour Thomas Corbin 7,771 15.3 +7.7
UKIP Paul Martin16 6,152 12.1 +9.2
Liberal Democrat Reetendra Banerji 5,099 10.1 -26.9
Green Alison Craig 2,762 5.4 +4.4
Independent Arthur Uther Pendragon17 729 1.4 N/A
Majority 20,421 40.3 +28.0
Turnout 50,705 72.9 +1.0

Leave Vote: 49.9%

Sitting MP: John Glen (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

6. South Swindon

2010 Result:
Conservative: 19687 (41.8%)
Labour: 16143 (34.3%)
Lib Dem: 8305 (17.6%)
Green: 619 (1.3%)
UKIP: 2029 (4.3%)
Christian: 176 (0.4%)
Independent: 160 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 3544 (7.5%)

2015 Result:

Conservative Robert Buckland 22,777 46.2 +4.5
Labour Anne Snelgrove 16,992 34.5 +0.2
UKIP John Short9 5,920 12.0 +7.7
Liberal Democrat Damon Hooton10 1,817 3.7 -13.9
Green Talis Kimberley-Fairbourn11 1,757 3.6 +2.3
Majority 5,785 11.7
Turnout 66.6 +1.7

Leave Vote: 51.7%

Sitting MP: Robert Buckland (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

7. South West Wiltshire

2010 Result:
Conservative: 25321 (51.7%)
Labour: 5613 (11.5%)
Lib Dem: 14954 (30.5%)
UKIP: 2684 (5.5%)
Independent: 446 (0.9%)
MAJORITY: 10367 (21.1%)

2015 Result
Conservative Andrew Murrison 27,198 52.7 +1.0
UKIP Matthew Brown6 9,030 17.5 +12.0
Labour George Aylett 6,948 13.5 +2.0
Liberal Democrat Trevor Carbin 5,482 10.6 -19.9
Green Phil Randle 2,985 5.8 +5.8
Majority 18,168 35.2 +14.1
Turnout 51,643 70.7 +2.3

Leave Vote: 56.9%
Sitting MP: Andrew Murrison (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Safe seat.

To see previous predictions, click HERE

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Iain Dale talks to the Fleet Street Fox

Susan Boniface, aka The Fleet Street Fox, joins Iain to discuss her life as a blogger, tweeter and tabloid hack.

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General Election Predictions

General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 61. Surrey

6 May 2017 at 23:27

SURREY

Seats: 11
Current Political Makeup: Con 11
Predicted Political Makeup after June 8: Con 11

1. East Surrey

2010 Result:
Conservative: 31007 (56.7%)
Labour: 4925 (9%)
Lib Dem: 14133 (25.9%)
UKIP: 3770 (6.9%)
Independent: 383 (0.7%)
Others: 422 (0.8%)
MAJORITY: 16874 (30.9%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Sam Gyimah 32,211 57.4 +0.7
UKIP Helena Windsor 9,553 17.0 +10.1
Labour Matt Wilson 6,627 11.8 +2.8
Liberal Democrat David Lee 5,189 9.2 -16.6
Green Nicola Dodgson 2,159 3.8 N/A
Independent Sandy Pratt 364 0.6 N/A
Majority 22,658 40.4
Turnout 56,103 70.4 −0.7

Leave Vote: 54.2%

Sitting MP: Sam Gyimah
Prediction: Conservative hold

2. Epsom & Ewell

2010 Result:
Conservative: 30868 (56.2%)
Labour: 6538 (11.9%)
Lib Dem: 14734 (26.8%)
UKIP: 2549 (4.6%)
Others: 266 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 16134 (29.4%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Chris Grayling 33,309 58.3 +2.1
Labour Sheila Carlson 8,866 15.5 +3.6
UKIP Robert Leach 7,117 12.5 +7.8
Liberal Democrat Stephen Gee 5,002 8.8 -18.1
Green Susan McGrath 2,116 3.7 N/A
Independent Lionel Blackman 612 1.1 N/A
Independent Gareth Harfoot 121 0.2 N/A
Majority 24,443 42.8
Turnout 57,143 72.7 +2.3

Leave Vote: 47.8%

Sitting MP: Chris Grayling (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

3. Esher & Walton

2010 Result:
Conservative: 32134 (58.9%)
Labour: 5829 (10.7%)
Lib Dem: 13541 (24.8%)
UKIP: 1783 (3.3%)
English Dem: 307 (0.6%)
Independent: 378 (0.7%)
Others: 571 (1%)
MAJORITY: 18593 (34.1%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Dominic Raab 35,845 62.9 +4.0
Labour Francis Eldergill 7,229 12.7 +2.0
UKIP Nicholas Wood 5,551 9.7 +6.5
Liberal Democrat Andrew Davis 5,372 9.4 −15.4
Green Olivia Palmer 2,355 4.1 N/A
CISTA Matthew Heenan 396 0.7 N/A
Independent Della Reynolds 228 0.4 N/A
Majority 28,616 50.2
Turnout 56,976 71.3 −0.7

Leave Vote: 41.6%

Sitting MP: Dominic Raab (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

4. Guildford

2010 Result:
Conservative: 29618 (53.3%)
Labour: 2812 (5.1%)
Lib Dem: 21836 (39.3%)
UKIP: 1021 (1.8%)
Others: 280 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 7782 (14%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Anne Milton 30,802 57.1 +3.8
Liberal Democrat Kelly-Marie Blundell 8,354 15.5 −23.8
Labour Richard Wilson 6,534 12.1 +7.0
UKIP Harry Aldridge 4,774 8.8 +7.0
Green John Pletts 2,558 4.7 N/A
Guildford Greenbelt Group Susan Parker 538 1.0 N/A
Peace John Morris 230 0.4 −0.1
CISTA Gerri Smyth 196 0.4 N/A
Majority 22,448 41.6 +27.6
Turnout 53,986 70.5 −1.6

Sitting MP: Anne Milton (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Hard to think this was a LibDem seat not that long ago.

5. Mole Valley

2010 Result:
Conservative: 31263 (57.5%)
Labour: 3804 (7%)
Lib Dem: 15610 (28.7%)
Green: 895 (1.6%)
UKIP: 2752 (5.1%)
MAJORITY: 15653 (28.8%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Paul Beresford5 33,434 60.6 +3.1
Liberal Democrat Paul Kennedy 7,981 14.5 −14.3
UKIP Paul Oakley 6 6,181 11.2 +6.1
Labour Leonard Amos7 4,565 8.3 +1.3
Green Jacquetta Fewster8 2,979 5.4 +3.8
Majority 25,453 46.1
Turnout 55,329 74.2 −0.6

Leave Vote: 47.3%

Sitting MP: Sir Paul Beresford (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

6. Reigate

2010 Result:
Conservative: 26688 (53.4%)
Labour: 5672 (11.3%)
Lib Dem: 13097 (26.2%)
BNP: 1345 (2.7%)
Green: 1087 (2.2%)
UKIP: 2089 (4.2%)
MAJORITY: 13591 (27.2%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Crispin Blunt 29,151 56.8 +3.4
UKIP Joe Fox 6,817 13.3 +9.1
Labour Ali Aklakul 6,578 12.8 +1.5
Liberal Democrat Anna Tarrant 5,369 10.5 −15.7
Green Jonathan Essex 3,434 6.7 +4.5
Majority 22,334 43.5
Turnout 51,349 69.9 +0.1

Leave Vote: 48%

Sitting MP: Crispin Blunt (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

7. Runneymede & Weybridge

2010 Result:
Conservative: 26915 (55.9%)
Labour: 6446 (13.4%)
Lib Dem: 10406 (21.6%)
Green: 696 (1.4%)
UKIP: 3146 (6.5%)
Independent: 541 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 16509 (34.3%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Philip Hammond 29,901 59.7 +3.8
Labour Arran Neathey 7,767 15.5 +2.1
UKIP Joe Branco8 6,951 13.9 +7.4
Liberal Democrat John Vincent9 3,362 6.7 −14.9
Green Rustam Majainah10 2,071 4.1 +2.7
Majority 22,134 44.2 +7.9
Turnout 50,224 68.1 +1.7

Leave Vote: 49.8%

Sitting MP: Philip Hammond (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

8. South West Surrey

2010 Result:
Conservative: 33605 (58.7%)
Labour: 3419 (6%)
Lib Dem: 17287 (30.2%)
BNP: 644 (1.1%)
Green: 690 (1.2%)
UKIP: 1486 (2.6%)
Others: 128 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 16318 (28.5%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Jeremy Hunt 34,199 59.6 +0.9
UKIP Mark Webber 5,643 9.8 +7.2
Labour Howard Kaye 5,415 9.4 +3.4
National Health Action Louise Irvine 4,851 8.5 +8.5
Liberal Democrat Patrick Haveron1 3,586 6.3 −23.9
Green Susan Ryland10 3,105 5.4 +4.2
Something New Paul Robinson 320 0.6 +0.6
Majority 28,556 49.8 +21.3
Turnout 54,014

Leave Vote: 40.7%

Sitting MP: Jeremy Hunt (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

9. Spelthorne

2010 Result:
Conservative: 22261 (47.1%)
Labour: 7789 (16.5%)
Lib Dem: 12242 (25.9%)
UKIP: 4009 (8.5%)
TUSC: 176 (0.4%)
Independent: 314 (0.7%)
Others: 513 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 10019 (21.2%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Kwasi Kwarteng 24,386 49.7 +2.6
UKIP Redvers Cunningham9 10,234 20.9 +12.4
Labour Rebecca Geach10 9,114 18.6 +2.1
Liberal Democrat Rosie Shimell11 3,163 6.4 -19.4
Green Paul Jacobs12 1,724 3.5 N/A
Independent Juliet Griffith 230 0.5 N/A
TUSC Paul Couchman13 228 0.5 +0.1
Majority 14,152 28.8

Leave Vote: 60.35

Sitting MP: Kwasi Kwarteng (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

10. Surrey Heath

2010 Result:
Conservative: 31326 (57.6%)
Labour: 5552 (10.2%)
Lib Dem: 14037 (25.8%)
UKIP: 3432 (6.3%)
MAJORITY: 17289 (31.8%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Michael Gove 32,582 59.9 Increase 2.2
UKIP Paul Chapman10 7,778 14.3 Increase 8.0
Labour Laween Atroshi 6,100 11.2 Increase 1.0
Liberal Democrat Ann-Marie Barker 4,937 9.1 Decrease 16.8
Green Kimberley Lawson11 2,400 4.4 N/A
Christian Juliana Brimicombe 361 0.7 N/A
Independent Bob and Roberta Smith12 273 0.5 N/A
Majority 24,804 45.6 Increase 13.8
Turnout 54,431 68.5 Decrease 1.5

Leave Vote: 51.2%

Sitting MP: Michael Gove (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

11. Woking

2010 Result:
Conservative: 26551 (50.3%)
Labour: 4246 (8%)
Lib Dem: 19744 (37.4%)
UKIP: 1997 (3.8%)
Others: 248 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 6807 (12.9%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Jonathan Lord 29,199 56.2 +5.9
Labour Jill Rawling 8,389 16.1 +8.1
Liberal Democrat Chris Took 6,047 11.6 −25.8
UKIP Rob Burberry 5,873 11.3 +7.5
Green Martin Robson 2,109 4.1 N/A
CISTA Declan Wade 229 0.4 N/A
Magna Carta Conservation Party Great Britain Ruth Temple 77 0.1 N/A
The Evolution Party Angela Woolford 41 0.1 N/A
Majority 20,810 40.0 +27.1
Turnout 51,964 70.0 −1.5

Leave Vote: 44.3%

Sitting MP: Jonathan Lord (Con)
Prediction: Increased Conservative majority

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE

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LBC 97.3: Iain Dale Challenges a Caller Who Thinks People Choose to be Gay

Mosad from Golders Green called Iain's programme to talk about gay marriage. He suggested that people choose to be gay. He got more than he bargained for in return...

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General Election Predictions

General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 60. Berkshire

6 May 2017 at 22:29

BERKSHIRE

Seats: 8
Current Political Makeup: Con 7, Lab 1
Predicted Political Makeup after June 8: Con 7, Lab 1

1. Bracknell

2010 Result:
Conservative: 27327 (52.4%)
Labour: 8755 (16.8%)
Lib Dem: 11623 (22.3%)
BNP: 1253 (2.4%)
Green: 821 (1.6%)
UKIP: 2297 (4.4%)
Others: 60 (0.1%)
MAJORITY: 15704 (30.1%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Phillip Lee 7 29,606 55.8 +3.4
Labour James Walsh 8 8,956 16.9 +0.1
UKIP Richard Thomas 9 8,339 15.7 +11.3
Liberal Democrat Patrick Smith 10 3,983 7.5 −14.8
Green Derek Florey11 2,202 4.1 +2.6
Majority 20,650 38.9 +8.8
Turnout 53,086 65.3 −2.6

Leave Vote: 53.2%

Sitting MP: Philip Lee (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

2. Maidenhead

2010 Result:
Conservative: 31937 (59.5%)
Labour: 3795 (7.1%)
Lib Dem: 15168 (28.2%)
BNP: 825 (1.5%)
Green: 482 (0.9%)
UKIP: 1243 (2.3%)
Others: 270 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 16769 (31.2%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Theresa May 35,453 65.8 +6.4
Labour Charlie Smith 6,394 11.9 +4.8
Liberal Democrat Tony Hill 5,337 9.9 −18.3
UKIP Herbie Crossman11 4,539 8.4 +6.1
Green Emily Blyth 1,915 3.6 +2.7
Independent Ian Taplin 162 0.3 N/A
Class War Joe Wilcox 55 0.1 N/A
Majority 29,059 54.0 +22.8
Turnout 53,855 72.6 −1.1

Leave Vote: 45%

Sitting MP: Theresa May (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

3. Newbury

2010 Result:
Conservative: 33057 (56.4%)
Labour: 2505 (4.3%)
Lib Dem: 20809 (35.5%)
Green: 490 (0.8%)
UKIP: 1475 (2.5%)
Independent: 158 (0.3%)
Others: 95 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 12248 (20.9%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Richard Benyon 34,973 61.0 +4.6
Liberal Democrat Judith Bunting 8,605 15.0 -20.5
UKIP Catherine Anderson 6,195 10.8 +8.3
Labour Jonny Roberts 4,837 8.4 +4.2
Green Paul Field 2,324 4.1 +3.2
Apolitical Democrats Peter Norman 228 0.4 +0.2
Independent Barrie Singleton 85 0.1
Patriotic Socialist Party Andrew Stott 53 0.1
Majority 26,368 46.0 +25.1
Turnout 57,300 72.1 +1.9

Leave Vote: 47.8%

Sitting MP: Richard Benyon (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

4. Reading East

2010 Result:
Conservative: 21269 (42.6%)
Labour: 12729 (25.5%)
Lib Dem: 13664 (27.3%)
Green: 1069 (2.1%)
UKIP: 1086 (2.2%)
Independent: 111 (0.2%)
Others: 57 (0.1%)
MAJORITY: 7605 (15.2%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Rob Wilson 23,217 46.0 +3.4
Labour Matt Rodda 16,697 33.1 +7.6
Liberal Democrat Jenny Woods 3,719 7.4 −19.9
UKIP Christine Forrester7 3,647 7.2 +5.0
Green Rob White 3,214 6.4 +4.3
Majority 6,520 12.9
Turnout 50,494 69.0 +2.3

Leave Vote: 38.3%

Sitting MP: Rob Wilson (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

5. Reading West

2010 Result:
Conservative: 20523 (43.2%)
Labour: 14519 (30.5%)
Lib Dem: 9546 (20.1%)
Green: 582 (1.2%)
UKIP: 1508 (3.2%)
Others: 852 (1.8%)
MAJORITY: 6004 (12.6%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Alok Sharma 23,082 47.7 +4.5
Labour Victoria Groulef 16,432 34.0 +3.5
UKIP Malik Azam10 4,826 10.0 +6.8
Liberal Democrat Meri O’Connell 2,355 4.9 -15.2
Green Miriam Kennet 1,406 2.9 +1.7
Independent Suzie Ferguson 156 0.3 -
TUSC Neil Adams 83 0.2 -
Roman Philip West 64 0.1 -
Majority 6,650 13.7 +1.1
Turnout 48,404 66.7 +0.8

Leave Vote: 51.5%

Sitting MP: Alok Sharma (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

6. Slough

2010 Result:
Conservative: 16361 (34.3%)
Labour: 21884 (45.8%)
Lib Dem: 6943 (14.5%)
Green: 542 (1.1%)
UKIP: 1517 (3.2%)
Christian: 495 (1%)
MAJORITY: 5523 (11.6%)

2015 Result:
Labour Fiona Mactaggart 23,421 48.5 +2.7
Conservative Gurcharan Singh 16,085 33.3 −1.0
UKIP Diana Coad 6,274 13.0 +9.8
Liberal Democrat Tom McCann 1,275 2.6 −11.9
Green Julian Edmonds 1,220 2.5 +1.4
Majority 7,336 15.2 +3.6
Turnout 48,275 55.9 −6.0

Leave Vote: 54.1%

Sitting MP: Fiona MacTaggart (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

This seat was held by the Tory John Watts until 1997 but demographic changes have cemented Labour’s hold on it. However, in a massive Tory landslide it could be in play.

7. Windsor

2010 Result:
Conservative: 30172 (60.8%)
Labour: 4910 (9.9%)
Lib Dem: 11118 (22.4%)
BNP: 950 (1.9%)
Green: 628 (1.3%)
UKIP: 1612 (3.3%)
Independent: 198 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 19054 (38.4%)

2015 Result:
Adam Afriyie Conservative 31,797 63.4 +2.6
Fiona Dent Labour 6,714 13.4 +3.5
Tariq Malik UKIP 4,992 10.0 +7.7
George Fussey Liberal Democrat 4,323 8.6 -13.8
Derek Wall Green 1,834 3.7 +2.4
Wisdom Da Costa Independent 500 1.0 N/A
Majority: 25,083 (50.0%) +11.6

Leave Vote: 46.7%

Sitting MP: Adam Afriyie (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

8. Wokingham

2010 Result:
Conservative: 28754 (52.7%)
Labour: 5516 (10.1%)
Lib Dem: 15262 (28%)
Green: 567 (1%)
UKIP: 1664 (3.1%)
Independent: 2340 (4.3%)
Others: 425 (0.8%)
MAJORITY: 13492 (24.7%)

2015 Result:
Conservative John Redwood 32,329 57.7 +5.0
Labour Andy Croy 8,132 14.5 +4.4
Liberal Democrat Clive Jones 7,572 13.5 −14.5
UKIP Philip Cunnington5 5,516 9.9 +6.8
Green Adrian Windisch 2,092 3.7 +2.7
Independent Kaz Lokuciewski 358 0.6 N/A
Majority 24,197 43.2 +19.5
Turnout 55,999 71.9 +0.4

Leave Vote: 42.7%

Sitting MP: John Redwood (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

To see the complete list of predictions click HERE

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Iain meets Gordon Aikman

Gordon has MND. He's raised £500k. He's an inspiration.

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UK Politics

The Three Candidates (From Three Different Parties) I Am Going to Donate To In This Election

6 May 2017 at 22:00

Elections cost money. Contrary to popular rumour, most local candidates don’t have huge amounts of money to fund their campaigns. And they have to raise money to fund their campaigns. Each candidate (depending on the number of voters and whether the constituency is rural or urban) will have a spending limit of £15-20,000. If they are fighting a hopeless seat they may well even have to fund their election deposit themselves. Having fought one parliamentary election I know how important money is. Leaflets cost money. Posters cost money. Every aspect of campaigning costs money. And the last thing you want to worry about when you are a candidate is money.

The trouble is, if you wanted to make a donation to a candidate in your local constituency they rarely make it easy for you. Look for a DONATE button on their campaign websites and you will often look in vain. People are used to donating to charities on sites like JustGiving.com or GoFundMe.com, but candidates and politicians don’t seem to be making huge use of them.

Most people obviously donate to the candidate representing the political party they support. It may be £5, £20 or sometimes a three figure sum. Anything above £500 and they have to declare it to the Electoral Commission.

I would encourage anyone reading this to donate some money to any candidate they approve of. Maybe some people will do what I am about to do.

Many people may think that I have lost leave of my senses, but I am going to donate to three political candidates, each from a different political party. Everyone knows my politics. It’s difficult make secret of them when you’ve stood for Parliament, even if it was 12 years ago now. However, I haven’t been involved in party politics since 2010, and I don’t belong to the Conservative Party any longer. When I joined LBC in 2010 I didn’t think it was appropriate to have any party alignment. I’ve spoken at the odd Tory Association dinner and I did a fundraising dinner for Lynne Featherstone. I’d have been happy to speak at a Labour event, but no one has ever asked!

So for this election, I’m not going to be campaigning for anyone, but I am going to make a donation to three different candidates from three different political parties. They are Jess Phillips (Labour, Birmingham Yardley), Julian Huppert (LibDem, Cambridge) and Tracey Crouch (Conservative, Chatham & Aylesford).

The reason I have chosen them is that they all royal pains in the arse. They each exemplify what a good Parliamentarian is all about. As MPs they have all done a brilliant job in holding the executive to account. They aren’t afraid to go against their own party lines, and each has maverick tendencies.

I’ll admit that Tracey is a good friend of mine and I have taken great pleasure at her success as Minister for Sport. She’s in a job I’d have loved to have done and she’s doing it bloody well. She’s in a seat that used to be highly marginal, but she won with a good majority last time.

Julian Huppert was the LibDem MP for Cambridge until 2015, when he narrowly lost to Labour. He was a great loss to Parliament. He rattled many an establishment cage and often incurred the wrath of Mr Speaker Bercow. He knew how to use parliamentary procedure to get his own way and was highly effective – much more effective than his rather lame Labour successor.

Jess Phillips swept into Parliament and made an immediate impact. Anyone who tells Diane Abbott to ‘fuck off’ in her first few months in Parliament has to have something about them. She knows how to use the media to further campaigs she believes in, and has a withering array of putdowns. Parliament would be a much poorer place without her.

I’m sure I will get a lot of criticism for doing this, but I hope that others will look at doing the same. Donating to political parties or candidates is an honourable thing to do. I hate the very idea of state funding and this is the best way to avoid it having to be introduced. Campaigns should be funded by ordinary people making small donations. Rich people can do what they want with their money, but it is not healthy for national parties or local parties to be funded by a very small number of rich individuals or trade unions. We often talk about the ‘wisdom of the crowds’, but we should also talking more about political crowd funding.

And for God’s sake, if you’re a political campaign manager in any of the 650 seats, for any of the political parties, make it easy for people to donate. Do that, and they will.

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LBC 97.3: Iain Dale talks to Peter Hennessy

Professor Peter Hennessy discusses his latest book DISTILLING THE FRENZY

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General Election Predictions

General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 59. Hertfordshire

6 May 2017 at 20:34

HERTFORDSHIRE

Seats: 11
Current Political Makeup: Con 11
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 11

1. Broxbourne

2010 Result:
Conservative: 26844 (58.8%)
Labour: 8040 (17.6%)
Lib Dem: 6107 (13.4%)
BNP: 2159 (4.7%)
UKIP: 1890 (4.1%)
English Dem: 618 (1.4%)
MAJORITY: 18804 (41.2%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Charles Walker 25,797 56.1 −2.7
UKIP David Platt 9,074 19.7 +15.6
Labour Edward Robinson 8,470 18.4 +0.8
Liberal Democrat Anthony Rowlands 1,467 3.2 −10.2
Green Russell Secker 1,216 2.6 N/A
Majority 16,723 36.3 −4.9
Turnout 46,024 63.1 −0.9

Leave Vote: 65.5%

Sitting MP: Charles Walker (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

2. Hemel Hempstead

2010 Result:
Conservative: 24721 (50%)
Labour: 10295 (20.8%)
Lib Dem: 11315 (22.9%)
BNP: 1615 (3.3%)
UKIP: 1254 (2.5%)
Independent: 271 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 13406 (27.1%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Mike Penning 26,245 52.9 +2.9
Labour Tony Breslin 11,825 23.8 +3.0
UKIP Howard Koch 7,249 14.6 +12.1
Liberal Democrat Rabi Martins 2,402 4.8 −18.0
Green Alan Borgars 1,660 3.3 N/A
Independent Brian Hall 252 0.5 N/A
Majority 14,420 29.1 +2
Turnout 49,633 66.5 -1.5

Leave Vote: 55.5%

Sitting MP: Mike Penning (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

3. Hertford & Stortford

2010 Result:
Conservative: 29810 (53.8%)
Labour: 7620 (13.8%)
Lib Dem: 14373 (26%)
BNP: 1297 (2.3%)
UKIP: 1716 (3.1%)
Independent: 325 (0.6%)
Others: 236 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 15437 (27.9%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Mark Prisk9 31,593 56.1 +2.3
Labour Katherine Chibah10 10,084 17.9 +4.2
UKIP Adrian Baker10 7,534 13.4 +10.3
Liberal Democrat Michael Green11 4,385 7.8 -18.2
Green Sophie Christophy12 2,681 4.8 +4.8
Majority 21,509 38.2 +10.3
Turnout 56,277 71.3 +0.7

Leave Vote: 49.2%

Sitting MP: Mark Prisk (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

4. Hertsmere

2010 Result:
Conservative: 26476 (56%)
Labour: 8871 (18.8%)
Lib Dem: 8210 (17.4%)
BNP: 1397 (3%)
Green: 604 (1.3%)
UKIP: 1712 (3.6%)
MAJORITY: 17605 (37.2%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Oliver Dowden 29,696 59.3 +3.3
Labour Richard Butler9 11,235 22.4 +3.7
UKIP Frank Ward 6,383 12.7 +9.1
Liberal Democrat Sophie Bowler 2,777 5.5 −11.8
Majority 18,461 36.9 −0.3
Turnout 50,091 67.9 +3.2

Leave Vote: 50.8%

Sitting MP: Oliver Dowden (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

5. Hitchin & Harpenden

2010 Result:
Conservative: 29869 (54.6%)
Labour: 7413 (13.6%)
Lib Dem: 14598 (26.7%)
Green: 807 (1.5%)
UKIP: 1663 (3%)
Independent: 109 (0.2%)
Others: 248 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 15271 (27.9%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Peter Lilley 31,488 56.9 +2.3
Labour Rachel Burgin 11,433 20.6 +7.1
UKIP John Stocker 4,917 8.9 +5.8
Liberal Democrat Pauline Pearce 4,484 8.1 -18.6
Green Richard Wise 3,053 5.5 +4
Majority 20,055 36.2 +8.3
Turnout 55,375 74.0 −0.1

Leave Vote: 39.3%

Sitting MP: Peter Lilley (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

6. North East Hertfordshire

2010 Result:
Conservative: 26995 (53.5%)
Labour: 8291 (16.4%)
Lib Dem: 11801 (23.4%)
Green: 875 (1.7%)
UKIP: 2075 (4.1%)
Independent: 209 (0.4%)
Others: 179 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 15194 (30.1%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Oliver Heald 28,949 55.4 +1.8
Labour Chris York7 9,869 18.9 +2.4
UKIP William Compton8 6,728 12.9 +8.8
Liberal Democrat Joe Jordan9 3,952 7.6 −15.8
Green Mario May1011 2,789 5.3 +3.6
Majority 19,080 36.5 −4.3
Turnout 52,500 70.7 +0.9

Leave Vote: 51.4%

Sitting MP: Oliver Heald (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

7. South West Hertfordshire

2010 Result:
Conservative: 30773 (54.2%)
Labour: 6526 (11.5%)
Lib Dem: 15853 (27.9%)
BNP: 1302 (2.3%)
UKIP: 1450 (2.6%)
Independent: 846 (1.5%)
MAJORITY: 14920 (26.3%)

2015 Result:
Conservative David Gauke 32,608 56.9 +2.7
Labour Simon Diggins 9,345 16.3 +4.8
UKIP Mark Anderson 6,603 11.5 +9.0
Liberal Democrat Nigel Quinton 5,872 10.3 −17.7
Green Charlotte Pardy 2,583 4.5 N/A
Common Sense Party Graham Cartmell 256 0.4 N/A
Majority 23,263 40.6
Turnout 71.9

Leave Vote: 46.2%

Sitting MP: David Gauke (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

8. St Albans

2010 Result:
Conservative: 21533 (40.8%)
Labour: 9288 (17.6%)
Lib Dem: 19228 (36.4%)
Green: 758 (1.4%)
UKIP: 2028 (3.8%)
MAJORITY: 2305 (4.4%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Anne Main 25,392 46.6 +5.9
Labour Kerry Pollard 12,660 23.3 +5.7
Liberal Democrat Sandy Walkington 10,076 18.5 -17.9
UKIP Chris Wright 4,271 7.8 +4.0
Green Jack Easton 2,034 3.7 +2.3
Majority 12,732 23.4 +19
Turnout 54,433 72.0 -3.4

Leave Vote: 37.8%

Sitting MP: Anne Main (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

9. Stevenage

2010 Result:
Conservative: 18491 (41.4%)
Labour: 14913 (33.4%)
Lib Dem: 7432 (16.6%)
BNP: 1007 (2.3%)
UKIP: 2004 (4.5%)
English Dem: 366 (0.8%)
Independent: 80 (0.2%)
Others: 358 (0.8%)
MAJORITY: 3578 (8%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Stephen McPartland 21,291 44.5 +3.1
Labour Sharon Taylor 16,336 34.2 +0.8
UKIP David Collins 6,864 14.4 +9.9
Liberal Democrat Susan Van De Ven 1,582 3.3 −13.3
Green Graham White 1,369 2.9 N/A
TUSC Trevor Palmer 175 0.4 N/A
English Democrat Charles Vickers 115 0.2 −0.6
Independent David Cox 67 0.1 −0.1
Majority 4,955 10.4 +2.4
Turnout 67.7 +2.9

Leave Vote: 57%

Sitting MP: Stephen McPartland (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

10. Watford

2010 Result:
Conservative: 19291 (34.9%)
Labour: 14750 (26.7%)
Lib Dem: 17866 (32.4%)
BNP: 1217 (2.2%)
Green: 885 (1.6%)
UKIP: 1199 (2.2%)
MAJORITY: 1425 (2.6%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Richard Harrington 24,400 43.5 +8.5
Labour Matthew Turmaine 14,606 26.0 -0.7
Liberal Democrat Dorothy Thornhill 10,152 18.1 -14.3
UKIP Nick Lincoln 5,481 9.8 +7.6
Green Aidan Cottrell-Boyce 1,332 2.4 +0.8
TUSC Mark O’Connor 178 0.3 +0.3
Majority 9,794 17.4 +14.8
Turnout 56,149 66.6 -1.7

Leave Vote: 51.2%

Sitting MP: Richard Harrington (Con)
Prediction: *Conservative
hold

11. Welwyn & Hatfield

2010 Result:
Conservative: 27894 (57%)
Labour: 10471 (21.4%)
Lib Dem: 8010 (16.4%)
Green: 796 (1.6%)
UKIP: 1643 (3.4%)
Independent: 158 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 17423 (35.6%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Grant Shapps 25,281 50.4 −6.6
Labour Anawar Miah 13,128 26.1 +4.8
UKIP Arthur Stevens9 6,556 13.1 +9.7
Liberal Democrat Hugh Annand 3,140 6.3 −10.1
Green Marc Scheimann10 1,742 3.5 +1.8
Independent Michael Green11 216 0.4 N/A
TUSC Richard Shattock 142 0.3 N/A
Majority 12,153 24.2
Turnout 68.5

Leave Vote: 52.8%

Sitting MP: Grant Shapps (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

To see the complete list of predictions click HERE

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