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  • 6.45pm Gordon’s Diary
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General Election Predictions

General Election Predictions 75: Teesside

18 Jan 2015 at 00:00

This is the seventy-fifth in a series of blogposts (scroll to the bottom of the article for the others) which will seek to predict the outcome of every seat in the run-up to the next general election. The notion of a universal swing in May 2015 can be totally discounted. Each seat has to be treated on its merits. Feel free to add your comments and tell me where you think I have got things wrong. I will return to update each county analysis when and if I get new information.

Teesside

Seats: 6
Current Political Makeup: Con 1,Lab 4, LibDem 1
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 1, Lab 5

1. Hartlepool

2010 Result:
Conservative: 10758 (28.1%)
Labour: 16267 (42.5%)
Lib Dem: 6533 (17.1%)
BNP: 2002 (5.2%)
UKIP: 2682 (7%)
MAJORITY: 5509 (14.4%)

Sitting MP: Iain Wright (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe-ish seat.

2. Middlesbrough

2010 Result:
Conservative: 6283 (18.8%)
Labour: 15351 (45.9%)
Lib Dem: 6662 (19.9%)
BNP: 1954 (5.8%)
UKIP: 1236 (3.7%)
Independent: 1969 (5.9%)
MAJORITY: 8689 (26%)

Sitting MP: Andrew McDonald
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

3. Middlesbrough South & East Cleveland

2010 Result:
Conservative: 16461 (35.6%)
Labour: 18138 (39.2%)
Lib Dem: 7340 (15.9%)
BNP: 1576 (3.4%)
UKIP: 1881 (4.1%)
Independent: 818 (1.8%)
MAJORITY: 1677 (3.6%)

Sitting MP: Tom Blenkinsop (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

A surprisingly close result last time, but surely an increased Labour majority this time?

4. Redcar

2010 Result:
Conservative: 5790 (13.8%)
Labour: 13741 (32.7%)
Lib Dem: 18955 (45.2%)
BNP: 1475 (3.5%)
UKIP: 1875 (4.5%)
TUSC: 127 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 5214 (12.4%)

Sitting MP: Ian Swales (LibDem)
Prediction: Labour gain

How the LibDems won this seat last time is anyone’s guess. Any chance they had of hanging onto it disappeared when Ian Swaleds announced he wouldn’t stand again. Like the rest of us, he saw the writing on the wall.

5. Stockton North

2010 Result:
Conservative: 10247 (25.9%)
Labour: 16923 (42.8%)
Lib Dem: 6342 (16.1%)
BNP: 1724 (4.4%)
UKIP: 1556 (3.9%)
English Dem: 1129 (2.9%)
Independent: 1577 (4%)
MAJORITY: 6676 (16.9%)

Sitting MP: Alex Cunningham (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

6. Stockton South

2010 Result:
Conservative: 19577 (38.9%)
Labour: 19245 (38.3%)
Lib Dem: 7600 (15.1%)
BNP: 1553 (3.1%)
UKIP: 1471 (2.9%)
Christian: 302 (0.6%)
Independent: 536 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 332 (0.7%)

Sitting MP: James Wharton (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

This ought to be a dead cert Labour gain, and it may well prove to be, but the fact that the Ashcroft poll shows the Tories only marginally behind here gives them a lot of hope. Wharton has got a good local profile and may well depress the UKIP vote because of his strong Eurosceptic stance. I admit this is more of a hunch prediction than anything, but I think I’m allowed the odd one!

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE

OUT NOW! The Politicos Guide to the General Election (by Iain Dale, Greg Callus, Robert Waller & Daniel Hamilton) £15.99 from Politicos.co.uk or £16.58 from Amazon. Also available as an eBook from Politicos.co.uk at £9.99 and Amazon at £10.19

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LBC 97.3: Iain talks to GQ editor Dylan Jones

Dylan Jones talks about his new book about the 1980s and what it's like editing GQ

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General Election Predictions

General Election Predictions 74: Tyne & Wear

17 Jan 2015 at 09:00

This is the seventy-fourth in a series of blogposts (scroll to the bottom of the article for the others) which will seek to predict the outcome of every seat in the run-up to the next general election. The notion of a universal swing in May 2015 can be totally discounted. Each seat has to be treated on its merits. Feel free to add your comments and tell me where you think I have got things wrong. I will return to update each county analysis when and if I get new information.

Tyne & Wear

Seats: 12
Current Political Makeup: Lab 12
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Lab 12

1. *Blaydon

2010 Result:
Conservative: 7159 (15.9%)
Labour: 22297 (49.6%)
Lib Dem: 13180 (29.3%)
BNP: 2277 (5.1%)
MAJORITY: 9117 (20.3%)

Sitting MP: David Anderson (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

2. Gateshead

2010 Result:
Conservative: 5716 (14.9%)
Labour: 20712 (54.1%)
Lib Dem: 8163 (21.3%)
BNP: 1787 (4.7%)
Green: 379 (1%)
UKIP: 1103 (2.9%)
Christian: 131 (0.3%)
TUSC: 266 (0.7%)
MAJORITY: 12549 (32.8%)

Sitting MP: Ian Mearns (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

3. Houghton & Sunderland South

2010 Result:
Conservative: 8147 (21.4%)
Labour: 19137 (50.3%)
Lib Dem: 5292 (13.9%)
BNP: 1961 (5.2%)
UKIP: 1022 (2.7%)
Independent: 2462 (6.5%)
MAJORITY: 10990 (28.9%)

Sitting MP: Bridget Phillipson (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat

4. Jarrow

2010 Result:
Conservative: 8002 (20.6%)
Labour: 20910 (53.9%)
Lib Dem: 7163 (18.5%)
BNP: 2709 (7%)
MAJORITY: 12908 (33.3%)

Sitting MP: Stephen Hepburn (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

5. Newcastle upon Tyne Central

2010 Result:
Conservative: 6611 (19.4%)
Labour: 15694 (45.9%)
Lib Dem: 8228 (24.1%)
BNP: 2302 (6.7%)
Green: 568 (1.7%)
UKIP: 754 (2.2%)
MAJORITY: 7466 (21.9%)

Sitting MP: Chi Onwurah (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat

6. Newcastle upon Tyne East

2010 Result:
Conservative: 6068 (16%)
Labour: 17043 (45%)
Lib Dem: 12590 (33.3%)
BNP: 1342 (3.5%)
Green: 620 (1.6%)
Others: 177 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 4453 (11.8%)

Sitting MP: Nick Brown (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

7. Newcastle upon Tyne North

2010 Result:
Conservative: 7966 (18.1%)
Labour: 17950 (40.8%)
Lib Dem: 14536 (33.1%)
BNP: 1890 (4.3%)
Green: 319 (0.7%)
UKIP: 1285 (2.9%)
MAJORITY: 3414 (7.8%)

Sitting MP: Catherine McKinnell (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Not a safe seat, but the LibDems had their chance here and they muffed it.

8. North Tyneside

2010 Result:
Conservative: 8514 (18.3%)
Labour: 23505 (50.7%)
Lib Dem: 10621 (22.9%)
BNP: 1860 (4%)
UKIP: 1306 (2.8%)
Others: 599 (1.3%)
MAJORITY: 12884 (27.8%)

Sitting MP: Mary Glindon (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

9. South Shields

2010 Result:
Conservative: 7886 (21.6%)
Labour: 18995 (52%)
Lib Dem: 5189 (14.2%)
BNP: 2382 (6.5%)
Green: 762 (2.1%)
Independent: 729 (2%)
Others: 575 (1.6%)
MAJORITY: 11109 (30.4%)

Sitting MP: Emma Lewel-Buck
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

10. Sunderland Central

2010 Result:
Conservative: 12770 (30.1%)
Labour: 19495 (45.9%)
Lib Dem: 7191 (16.9%)
BNP: 1913 (4.5%)
UKIP: 1094 (2.6%)
MAJORITY: 6725 (15.8%)

Sitting MP: Julie Elliott
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe-ish seat.

11. Tynemouth

2010 Result:
Conservative: 18121 (34.4%)
Labour: 23860 (45.3%)
Lib Dem: 7845 (14.9%)
BNP: 1404 (2.7%)
Green: 538 (1%)
UKIP: 900 (1.7%)
MAJORITY: 5739 (10.9%)

Sitting MP: Alan Campbell (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

12. Washington & Sunderland West

2010 Result:
Conservative: 8157 (21.8%)
Labour: 19615 (52.5%)
Lib Dem: 6382 (17.1%)
BNP: 1913 (5.1%)
UKIP: 1267 (3.4%)
MAJORITY: 11458 (30.7%)

Sitting MP: Sharon Hodgson (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE

OUT NOW! The Politicos Guide to the General Election (by Iain Dale, Greg Callus, Robert Waller & Daniel Hamilton) £15.99 from Politicos.co.uk or £16.58 from Amazon. Also available as an eBook from Politicos.co.uk at £9.99 and Amazon at £10.19

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LBC 97.3: Iain Dale talks to David Baddiel

Football funny man David Baddiel chats to Iain about the relationship between football and politics.

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Video

WATCH: An Hour With MND Campaigners Gordon Aikman & Joe Pike

16 Jan 2015 at 22:04

This evening I interviewed Gordon Aikman and his partner Joe Pike. Gordon was Director of Policy for the Better Together Campaign when he was diagnosed with Motor Neurone Disease seven months ago. Motor Neurone Disease is a rare, debilitating and progressive disease. It attacks the nerves which carry messages from the brain and spinal cord to the muscles. It leads to weakness and muscle wasting, meaning that soon, Gordon will be in a wheelchair. Soon, he will struggle to feed himself and even breath. Soon, he will die. There is no cure.

Joe interned at Total Politics and then worked with me at LBC for a couple of years. He and Gordon have known each other since they were at university together but it was only more recently that they got together. They are going to do a regular audio diary for my programme so we can monitor what happens to Gordon and promote awareness of MND.

I knew this was going to be an emotional hour. My great fear was that I would blub and ruin the whole thing. As it turned out I didn’t, even though I think the three of us found the whole thing very emotional.

I hope you find listening to Gordon as inspirational as I did.

If you’d like to donate to his JustGiving page click HERE. His website is HERE. And you can follow Gordon’s diary on his LBC page HERE

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Video: Iain & Jeremy Nicholas Discuss Their West Ham Books

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ConHome Diary: Discover Who my 'Tosser of the Week' Is! (Clue: It's Not Russell Brand)

16 Jan 2015 at 14:00

I’ve read some daft diary stories in my time – indeed, I’ve written quite a few of them – but the Londoner’s Diary took the biscuit on Thursday when they reckoned Nigel Farage’s new book THE PURPLE REVOLUTION (which I am publishing on 5 March) could count as a UKIP election expense. Laugh? I nearly wet myself. Apparently if spending topped £20,000 Biteback would have to declare it as a political donation to UKIP, according to the ever-helpful Electoral Commission. Bollocks to that. I’ll just have to cancel the planned launch party in Monaco, I suppose. In all seriousness, how any book by a politician can be considered any sort of election expense I just don’t know. Neither Farage nor UKIP will have any expense in the production of the book. The risk is entirely ours. So I ask again, how is an expense? Answer. It isn’t.
*
I’ve finally finished my seat by seat predictions for the general election. It’s been a mammoth task to predict 650 seats, but I am glad I did it. It’s taught me a lot about how the election is likely to pan out and highlighted some trends which I wouldn’t necessarily been aware of previously. Of course, the work isn’t finished as I will continue to update each seat as I learn more about them. I’ve already revised one or two seats having gleaned more information from local sources, including Loughborough where I now predict a Nicky Morgan hold. I’ve put my money where my mouth is in these predictions, which, if you haven’t seen them yet, you can find HERE [ add link http://iaindale.com/posts/2014/12/29/general-election-predictions-the-complete-list ]. I look forward to other pundits and commentators doing the same, but as usual, most will firmly sit on the fence, then afterwards say it was the result they had predicted all along. Anyway, you can find out what my final predictions are in The Independent on Sunday this Sunday, or check out my blog at www.iaindale.com.
*

So Peter Oborne reckons George Osborne wouldn’t stand in any future leadership contest and would throw his weight behind Boris Johnson. Really? No, really? Nope, me neither.
*
My Tosser of the Week has to go to the comedian who is standing in Thanet South. No, I’m not referring to Nigel Farage, but to The Pub Landlord, Al Murray. The coverage given to his non-historic announcement this week has been quite unbelievable. It’s symptomatic of a media which is desperate to see the UKIP leader fall on his feet. For some reason most pundits seem to be of the view that Murray would take votes off Farage. I suspect if he gets any votes at all they will come from disillusioned former supporters of the mainstream parties. We’ll soon see, but I doubt if he will get more than a couple of hundred votes. Why? Because the voters of South Thanet will eventually realise that far from causing them to laugh, he’s actually laughing AT them. And they won’t like it.
*

I went over to the dark side last year and ditched my Blackberry in favour of an iPhone 5S. I’ve surprised myself and liked it more than I thought I would, but now it’s time for an upgrade. And I have to answer that eternal questions. Do I go for an iPhone 6 or a 6+? I think that comes under the banner of #FirstWorldProblems.
*
Take it from me, David Cameron will take part in the election debates, whatever the shilly-shallying this week. Those who think it’s a mistake need to shut up and develop a strategy where Cameron can emerge smelling of roses. It’s just not possible for Cameron to shun any of the debates and he should never have threatened to. However, what I suspect will happen now is that the Greens will after all be deemed a major party for Ofcom and ITV will invite them to take part in the third multi-party debate. That will then trigger a legal challenge by the SNP, who think they should take part too. Uncle Tom Cobley may then seek a judicial review! All very unseemly, but all eminently predictable. It’s actually the broadcasters’ own fault. They should have set up a formal debates commission after the election which could have solved all these problems totally independent of the political parties and broadcasters. That must happen later this year so we don’t have these squabbles next time around.
*

I’m reading former Aussie Prime Minister Julia Gillard’s autobiography at the moment. It’s one of the few political memoirs I have read which has entirely transformed my view of the subject. Fair dinkum. I particularly liked the passage where she says of her predecessor – and successor, for that matter – Kevin Rudd: “I don’t like to think in swear words, but he was a fucking shit.” That’s my girl. I love Australian politics. Their politicians make ours look like pussies.
*
If you’re near a radio tonight tune into my LBC show at 7pm. You might need a good supply of Kleenex too. I’m doing an hour with Gordon Aikman, who is dying of Motor Neurone Disease. He was Policy Officer for the Better Together campaign in Scotland when he was diagnosed. He’s only 29 and is likely to die within twelve months. He’s now made it his life’s mission to raise awareness of the disease and ensure better care for future victims of MND. He’s raised a six figure sum and already changed public policy in Scotland. We’re going to follow his story over the next few months, not in a mawkish way, but because he wants people to know what happens when you get this terrible illness. I know his story will be an inspiration to everyone listening.
*

So the Conservative new election slogan is “A Britain Living Within Its Means”. Well that should get them out of bed and down the polling station on a cold Thursday morning in Auchtermuchty, shouldn’t it? Possibly one of the least exciting election slogans since, well, er, the last one. Come on boys and girls, surely you can do better than that. Something like “Britain’s on the Right Path – Don’t Let Labour Ruin it. Again”. Well it works for me…

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LBC Book Club: Iain Dale talks to Gyles Brandreth

Gyles Brandreth discusses his latest Sherlock Holmes Novel and much else besides.

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General Election Predictions

General Election Predictions 73: Northern Ireland (Part 2)

16 Jan 2015 at 10:11

This is the seventy-third in a series of blogposts (scroll to the bottom of the article for the others) which will seek to predict the outcome of every seat in the run-up to the next general election. The notion of a universal swing in May 2015 can be totally discounted. Each seat has to be treated on its merits. Feel free to add your comments and tell me where you think I have got things wrong. I will return to update each county analysis when and if I get new information.

I admit to knowing very little about Northern Irish politics so I have by and large kept each seat to a hold for the party that won it in 2010. I will revise these predictions depending on information received. There seems to be very little polling information or constituency information on the net. So do please leave comments!

Northern Ireland (Part 2)

Seats: 9
Current Political Makeup: DUP 4, Sinn Fein 3, SDLP 1, Independent 1
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: DUP 4, Sinn Fein 3, SDLP 1, Independent 1

10. Mid Ulster

Martin McGuinness (Sinn Féin) 21,239 (52.0%, +4.4%)
Ian McCrea (DUP) 5,876 (14.4%, -9.1%)
Tony Quinn (SDLP) 5,826 (14.3%, -3.1%)
Sandra Overend (UCUNF) 4,509 (11.0%, +0.3%)
Walter Millar (TUV) 2,995 (7.3%)
Ian Butler (Alliance) 397 1.0%
Majority: 15,363

BY-ELECTION
Francie Molloy (SF) 17,462 (46.9%, -5.1%)
Nigel Lutton (Independent) 12,781 (34.4%)
Patsy McGlone (SDLP) 6,478 (17.4%, +3.1%)
Eric Bullick (Alliance) 487 (1.3%, +0.3%)
Majority: 4,681

Sitting MP: Francie Molloy (Sinn Fein)
Prediction: Sinn Fein hold

11. Newry & Armagh

Conor Murphy (Sinn Féin) 18,857 (42.0%, +0.6%)
Dominic Bradley (SDLP) 10,526 (23.4%, -1.8%)
Danny Kennedy (UCUNF) 8,558 (19.1%, +5.2)
William Irwin (DUP) 5,764 (12.8%, -5.6%)
William Frazer (Independent) 656 (1.5%)
Andrew Muir (Alliance) 545 (1.2%)
Majority: 8,331

Sitting MP: Conor Murphy (Sinn Fein)
Prediction: Sinn Fein hold

12. North Antrim

Ian Paisley [jr] (DUP) 19,672 (46.4%, -10.2%)
Jim Allister (TUV) 7,114 (16.8%)
Daithi McKay (Sinn Féin) 5,265 (12.4%, -1.8%)
Irwin Armstrong (UCUNF) 4,634 (10.9%, -4.1%)
Declan O’Loan (SDLP) 3,738 (8.8%, -2.2%)
Jayne Dunlop (Alliance) 1,368 (3.2%, +0.1%)
Lyle Cubitt (Independent) 606 (1.4%)
Majority: 12,558

Sitting MP: Ian Paisley Jnr (DUP)
Prediction: DUP hold

13. North Down

*Sylvia Hermon (Independent) 21,181 (63.3%)
Ian Parsley (UCUNF) 6,817 (20.4%, -32.5%)
@Stephen Farry (Alliance) 1,876 (5.6%, -2.0%)
Mary Kilpatrick (TUV) 1,634 (4.9%)
Steven Agnew (Green) 1,043 (3.1%)
Liam Logan (SDLP) 680 (2.0%, -1.1%)
Vincent Parker (Sinn Féin) 250 (0.8%, +0.2%)
Majority: 14,364

Sitting MP: Lady Sylvia Hermon (Ind)
Prediction: Independent hold

14. South Antrim

@William McCrea (DUP) 11,536 (33.9%, -6.4%)
Reg Empey (UCUNF) 10,353 (30.4, +0.8%)
@Mitchel McLaughlin (Sinn Féin) 4,729 (13.9%, +3.2%)
Michelle Byrne (SDLP) 2,955 (8.7% -2.5%)
Alan Lawther (Alliance) 2,607 (7.7%, -0.6%)
Melwyn Lucas (TUV) 1,829 (5.4%)
Majority: 1,183

Sitting MP: William McCrea (DUP)
Prediction: DUP hold

15. South Down

Margaret Ritchie (SDLP) 20,648 (48.5%, +1.7%)
Caitriona Ruane (Sinn Féin) 12,236 (28.7%, +1.7%)
Jim Wells (DUP) 3,645 (8.6%, -7.5%)
John McCallister (UCUNF) 3,093 (7.3% -1.5%)
Ivor McConnell (TUV) 1,506 (3.5%)
Cadogan Enright (Green) 901 (2.1%)
David Griffin (Alliance) 560 (1.3%, ±0%)
Majority: 8,412

Sitting MP: Margaret Ritchie (SDLP)
Prediction: SDLP hold

16. Strangford

Jim Shannon (DUP) 14,926 (45.9%, -4.9%)
Mike Nesbitt (UCUNF) 9,050 (27.8%,+2.6%)*
Deborah Girvan (Alliance) 2,828 (8.7%, +0.3%)
Claire Hanna (SDLP) 2,164 (6.7%, -1.5%)
Terry Williams (TUV) 1,814 (5.6%)
Michael Coogan (Sinn Féin) 1,161 (3.6%, -0.1%)
Barbara Haig (Green) 562 (1.7%)
Majority: 5,876

Sitting MP: Jim Shannon (DUP)
Prediction: DUP hold

17. Upper Bann

David Simpson (DUP) 14,000 (33.8%, -3.8%)
Harry Hamilton (UCUNF) 10,639 (25.7%, +0.2%)
John O’Dowd (Sinn Féin) 10,237 (24.7%, +3.7%)
Dolores Kelly (SDLP) 5,276 (12.7%, -0.2%)
Brendan Heading (Alliance) 1,231 (3.0%, +0.8%)
Majority: 3,361

Sitting MP: David Simpson (DUP)
Prediction: DUP hold

18. West Tyrone

@Pat Doherty (Sinn Féin) 18,050 (48.4%, +9.5%)
@Thomas Buchanan (DUP) 7,365 (19.8%, +2.0%)
Ross Hussey (UCUNF) 5,281 (14.2%, +7.3%)
Joe Byrne (SDLP) 5,212 (14.0%, +4.9%)
Michael Bower (Alliance) 859 (2.3%)
Ciaran McClean (Independent) 508 (1.4%)
Majority: 10,685

Sitting MP: Pat Doherty (Sinn Fein)
Prediction: Sinn Fein hold

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE

OUT NOW! The Politicos Guide to the General Election (by Iain Dale, Greg Callus, Robert Waller & Daniel Hamilton) £15.99 from Politicos.co.uk or £16.58 from Amazon. Also available as an eBook from Politicos.co.uk at £9.99 and Amazon at £10.19

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LBC Book Club: Iain Dale talks to Joan Rivers

48 minutes of comedy chat with the Queen of Comedy, Joan Rivers.

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General Election Predictions

General Election Predictions 72: Northern Ireland (Part 1)

16 Jan 2015 at 09:00

This is the seventy-second in a series of blogposts (scroll to the bottom of the article for the others) which will seek to predict the outcome of every seat in the run-up to the next general election. The notion of a universal swing in May 2015 can be totally discounted. Each seat has to be treated on its merits. Feel free to add your comments and tell me where you think I have got things wrong. I will return to update each county analysis when and if I get new information.

I admit to knowing very little about Northern Irish politics so I have by and large kept each seat to a hold for the party that won it in 2010. I will revise these predictions depending on information received. There seems to be very little polling information or constituency information on the net. So do please leave comments!

Northern Ireland (Part 1)

Seats: 9
Current Political Makeup: DUP 4, Sinn Fein 2, SDLP 2, Alliance 1
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: DUP 5, Sinn Fein 2, SDLP 2

1. Belfast East

Naomi Long (Alliance) 12,839 (37.2%, +26.1%)
Peter Robinson (DUP) 11,306 (32.8%, -19.6%)
Trevor Ringland (UCUNF) 7,305 (21.2%, -9.7%)
David Vance (TUV) 1,856 (5.4%)
Niall Ó Donnghaile (Sinn Féin) 817 (2.4%, ±0)
Mary Muldoon (SDLP) 365 (1.1%, -1.0%)
Majority: 1,533

Sitting MP: Naomi Long (Alliance)
Prediction: DUP gain

2. Belfast North

Nigel Dodds (DUP) 14,812 (40.0%, -5.6%)
Gerry Kelly (Sinn Féin) 12,588 (34.0%, +5.4%)
Alban Maginness (SDLP) 4,544 (12.3%, -3.9%)
Fred Cobain (UCUNF) 2,837 (7.7%, +0.6%)
William Webb (Alliance) 1,809 (4.9%, +3.5%)
Martin McAuley (Independent) 403 (1.1%)
Majority 2,224

Sitting MP: Nigel Dodds (DUP)
Prediction: DUP hold

3. Belfast South

Alasdair McDonnell (SDLP) 14,026 (41.0%, +8.9%)
Jimmy Spratt (DUP) 8,100 (23.7%, -6.1%)
Paula Bradshaw (UCUNF) 5,910 (17.3%, -4.9%)
Anna Lo (Alliance) 5,114 (15.0%, +7.8%)
Adam McGibbon (Green) 1,036 (3.0%)
Majority: 5,926

Sitting MP: Alasdair McDonnell (SDLP)
Prediction: SDLP hold

4. Belfast West

Gerry Adams (Sinn Féin) 22,840 (71.1%, +3.5%)
Alex Attwood (SDLP) 5,261 (16.4%, +0.4%)
William Humphrey (DUP) 2,436 (7.6%, -3.2%)
Bill Manwaring (UCUNF) 1,000 (3.1% +0.6%)
Maire Hendron (Alliance) 596 (1.9% , +1.8%)
Majority: 17,579

BY ELECTION
Paul Maskey (SF) 16,211 (70.6%, -0.5%)
Alex Attwood (SDLP) 3088 (13.5%, -2.9%)
Gerry Carroll (People Before Profit) 1751 (7.6%)
Brian Kingston (DUP) 1393 (6.1%, -1.5%)
Bill Manwaring (UUP) 386 (1.7%, -1.4%)
Aaron McIntyre (Alliance) 122 (0.5%, -1.4%)
Majority: 13,123

Sitting MP: Paul Maskey (Sinn Fein)
Prediction: Sinn Fein hold

5. East Antrim

Sammy Wilson (DUP) 13,993 (45.9%, -1.0%)
Rodney McCune (UCUNF) 7,223 (23.7%, -1.4%)
Gerry Lynch (Alliance) 3,377 (11.1%, -3.6%)
Oliver McMullan (Sinn Féin) 2,064 (6.8%, +1.4%)
Justin McCamphill (SDLP) 2,019 (6.6%, -0.8%)
Samuel Morrison (TUV) 1,826 (6.0%)
Majority 6,770

Sitting MP: Sammy Wilson (DUP)
Prediction: DUP hold

6. East Londonderry

Gregory Campbell (DUP) 12,097 (34.6%, -6.4%)
Cathal Ó hOisín (Sinn Féin) 6,742 (19.3%, +1.9%)
Lesley Macaulay (UCUNF) 6,218 (17.8%, -1.9%)
Thomas Conway (SDLP) 5,399 (15.5% -3.8%)
William Ross (TUV) 2,572 (7.4%)
Barney Fitzpatrick (Alliance) 1,922 (5.5%, +3.1%)
Majority 5355

Sitting MP: Gregory Campbell (DUP)
Prediction: DUP hold

7. Fermanagh & South Tyrone

Michelle Gildernew (Sinn Féin) 21,304 (45.5%, +7.3%)
Rodney Connor (Independent) 21,300 (45.5%)
Fearghal McKinney (SDLP) 3,574 (7.6%, -7.2%)
Vasundhara Kamble (Alliance) 437 (0.9%)
John Stevenson (Independent) 188 (0.4%)
Majority: 4

Sitting MP: Michelle Gildernow (Sinn Fein)
Prediction: Sinn Fein hold

8. Foyle

Mark Durkan (SDLP) 16,922 (44.7%, -1.7%)
Martina Anderson (Sinn Féin) 12,098 (31.9% -1.4%)
Maurice Devenney (DUP) 4,489 (11.9%, -2.2%)
Eamonn McCann (People Before Profit) 2,936 (7.8%)
David Harding (UCUNF) 1,221 (3.2%, +0.9%)
Keith McGrellis (Alliance) 223 (0.6%)
Majority: 4,824

Sitting MP: Mark Durkan (SDLP)
Prediction: SDLP hold

9. Lagan Valley

Jeffrey Donaldson (DUP) 18,199 (49.8%, -8.5%)
Daphne Trimble (UCUNF) 7,713 (21.1%, -1.9%)
Trevor Lunn (Alliance) 4,174 (11.4%, +0.5%)
Keith Harbinson (TUV) 3,154 (8.6%)
Brian Heading (SDLP) 1,835 (5.0%, +1.5%)
Paul Butler (Sinn Féin) 1,465 (4.0%, -0.3%)
Majority: 10,486

Sitting MP: Jeffrey Donaldson (DUP)
Prediction: DUP hold

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE

OUT NOW! The Politicos Guide to the General Election (by Iain Dale, Greg Callus, Robert Waller & Daniel Hamilton) £15.99 from Politicos.co.uk or £16.58 from Amazon. Also available as an eBook from Politicos.co.uk at £9.99 and Amazon at £10.19

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LBC 97.3: Iain Dale talks to Photjournalist Paul Conroy

Paul Conroy talks about his terrible injuries from Syria and his work with Marie Colvin.

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General Election Predictions

General Election Predictions 71: Merseyside (Part 2)

15 Jan 2015 at 17:00

This is the seventy-first in a series of blogposts (scroll to the bottom of the article for the others) which will seek to predict the outcome of every seat in the run-up to the next general election. The notion of a universal swing in May 2015 can be totally discounted. Each seat has to be treated on its merits. Feel free to add your comments and tell me where you think I have got things wrong. I will return to update each county analysis when and if I get new information.

Merseyside (Part 2)

Seats: 7
Current Political Makeup: Con 1, Lab 5, LibDem 1
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 2, Lab 5

9. Sefton Central

2010 Result:
Conservative: 16445 (33.9%)
Labour: 20307 (41.9%)
Lib Dem: 9656 (19.9%)
UKIP: 2055 (4.2%)
MAJORITY: 3862 (8%)

Sitting MP: Bill Esterson (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Probably an increased majority.

10. Southport

2010 Result:
Conservative: 15683 (35.8%)
Labour: 4116 (9.4%)
Lib Dem: 21707 (49.6%)
UKIP: 2251 (5.1%)
MAJORITY: 6024 (13.8%)

Sitting MP: John Pugh (LibDem)
Prediction: Conservative gain

This seat has alternated between the LibDems and Conservatives for years, although the last time the Tories won it was in 1992. Labour are nowhere here.

11. St Helens North

2010 Result:
Conservative: 9940 (22.3%)
Labour: 23041 (51.7%)
Lib Dem: 8992 (20.2%)
UKIP: 2100 (4.7%)
Others: 483 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 13101 (29.4%)

Sitting MP: Dave Watts (Lab)
Preediction: Labour hold

12. St Helens South & Whiston

2010 Result:
Conservative: 8209 (17.8%)
Labour: 24364 (52.9%)
Lib Dem: 10242 (22.2%)
BNP: 2040 (4.4%)
UKIP: 1226 (2.7%)
MAJORITY: 14122 (30.6%)

Sitting MP: Shaun Woodward (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

13. Wallasey

2010 Result:
Conservative: 13071 (31.4%)
Labour: 21578 (51.8%)
Lib Dem: 5693 (13.7%)
UKIP: 1205 (2.9%)
Independent: 107 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 8507 (20.4%)

Sitting MP: Angela Eagle (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat

14. Wirral South

2010 Result:
Conservative: 15745 (39.5%)
Labour: 16276 (40.8%)
Lib Dem: 6611 (16.6%)
UKIP: 1274 (3.2%)
MAJORITY: 531 (1.3%)

Sitting MP: Alison McGovern (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Labour just held on to this seat last time. If the LibDem vote goes their way they will do so again.

15. Wirral West

2010 Result:
Conservative: 16726 (42.5%)
Labour: 14290 (36.3%)
Lib Dem: 6630 (16.8%)
UKIP: 899 (2.3%)
Independent: 506 (1.3%)
Others: 321 (0.8%)
MAJORITY: 2436 (6.2%)

Sitting MP: Esther McVey (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Liverpool Labour are determined to win this seat back, but the Ashcroft poll has Esther McVey only one point behind, which surely has to be encouraging for her. I reckon she’ll pull it off, but there may be only a few hundred votes in it.

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE

OUT NOW! The Politicos Guide to the General Election (by Iain Dale, Greg Callus, Robert Waller & Daniel Hamilton) £15.99 from Politicos.co.uk or £16.58 from Amazon. Also available as an eBook from Politicos.co.uk at £9.99 and Amazon at £10.19

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LBC 97.3: Iain Dale talks to Stefanie Powers

Hart to Hart star Stefanie Powers talks about her autobiography ONE FROM THE HART

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General Election Predictions

General Election Predictions 70: Merseyside (Part 1)

15 Jan 2015 at 13:00

This is the seventieth in a series of blogposts (scroll to the bottom of the article for the others) which will seek to predict the outcome of every seat in the run-up to the next general election. The notion of a universal swing in May 2015 can be totally discounted. Each seat has to be treated on its merits. Feel free to add your comments and tell me where you think I have got things wrong. I will return to update each county analysis when and if I get new information.

Merseyside (Part 1)

Seats: 8
Current Political Makeup: Lab 8
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Lab 8

1. Birkenhead

2010 Result:
Conservative: 6687 (18.9%)
Labour: 22082 (62.5%)
Lib Dem: 6554 (18.6%)
MAJORITY: 15395 (43.6%)

Sitting MP: Frank Field (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

2. Bootle

2010 Result:
Conservative: 3678 (8.9%)
Labour: 27426 (66.4%)
Lib Dem: 6245 (15.1%)
BNP: 942 (2.3%)
UKIP: 2514 (6.1%)
TUSC: 472 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 21181 (51.3%)

Sitting MP: Joe Benton (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

3. Garston & Halewood

2010 Result:
Conservative: 6908 (16.1%)
Labour: 25493 (59.5%)
Lib Dem: 8616 (20.1%)
UKIP: 1540 (3.6%)
Respect: 268 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 16877 (39.4%)

Sitting MP: Maria Eagle (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

4. Knowsley

2010 Result:
Conservative: 4004 (9%)
Labour: 31650 (70.9%)
Lib Dem: 5964 (13.4%)
BNP: 1895 (4.2%)
UKIP: 1145 (2.6%)
MAJORITY: 25686 (57.5%)

Sitting MP: George Howarth (Lab)
Prediction: :Labour hold

Safe seat.

5. Liverpool Riverside

2010 Result:
Conservative: 4243 (10.9%)
Labour: 22998 (59.3%)
Lib Dem: 8825 (22.7%)
BNP: 706 (1.8%)
Green: 1355 (3.5%)
UKIP: 674 (1.7%)
MAJORITY: 14173 (36.5%)

Sitting MP: Louise Ellman (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

6. Liverpool Walton

2010 Result:
Conservative: 2241 (6.5%)
Labour: 24709 (72%)
Lib Dem: 4891 (14.2%)
BNP: 1104 (3.2%)
UKIP: 898 (2.6%)
TUSC: 195 (0.6%)
Others: 297 (0.9%)
MAJORITY: 19818 (57.7%)

Sitting MP: Steve Rotheram (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

7. Liverpool Wavertree

2010 Result:
Conservative: 2830 (7.5%)
Labour: 20132 (53.1%)
Lib Dem: 12965 (34.2%)
BNP: 150 (0.4%)
Green: 598 (1.6%)
UKIP: 890 (2.3%)
Independent: 149 (0.4%)
Others: 200 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 7167 (18.9%)

Sitting MP: Luciana Berger (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

8. Liverpool West Derby

2010 Result:
Conservative: 3311 (9.3%)
Labour: 22953 (64.1%)
Lib Dem: 4486 (12.5%)
UKIP: 1093 (3.1%)
Liberal: 3327 (9.3%)
Others: 614 (1.7%)
MAJORITY: 18467 (51.6%)

Sitting MP: Stephen Twigg (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE

OUT NOW! The Politicos Guide to the General Election (by Iain Dale, Greg Callus, Robert Waller & Daniel Hamilton) £15.99 from Politicos.co.uk or £16.58 from Amazon. Also available as an eBook from Politicos.co.uk at £9.99 and Amazon at £10.19

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LBC97.3 Iain Talks to Dr David Starkey

"We've always been a nation of pissheads," David Starkey tells Iain.

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Video

Sky's Job is to Broadcast the News, Not Censor It

15 Jan 2015 at 12:02

This was from last night’s paper review on Sky News, where Jenny Kleeman and I made clear our views on Sky’s apology for showing the front cover of the new issue of Charlie Hebdu.

Hattip for video to @Liarpoliticians

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LBC Book Club: Iain Dale talks to Lady Pamela Hicks

Iain talks to Lady Pamela Hicks, daughter of Lord Louis Mountbatten, talks about her new book, DAUGHTER OF EMPIRE

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General Election Predictions

General Election Predictions 69: Cheshire

15 Jan 2015 at 09:00

This is the sixty-ninth in a series of blogposts (scroll to the bottom of the article for the others) which will seek to predict the outcome of every seat in the run-up to the next general election. The notion of a universal swing in May 2015 can be totally discounted. Each seat has to be treated on its merits. Feel free to add your comments and tell me where you think I have got things wrong. I will return to update each county analysis when and if I get new information.

Cheshire

Seats: 11
Current Political Makeup: Con 8, Lab 3
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 5, Lab 6

1. City of Chester

2010 Result:
Conservative: 18995 (40.6%)
Labour: 16412 (35.1%)
Lib Dem: 8930 (19.1%)
Green: 535 (1.1%)
UKIP: 1225 (2.6%)
English Dem: 594 (1.3%)
Independent: 99 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 2583 (5.5%)

Sitting MP: Stephen Mosley (Con)
Prediction: Labour gain

This seat swings with the political wind. I think the UKIP intervention will be decisive here and they will take more votes from the Tories than Labour.

2. Congleton

2010 Result:
Conservative: 23250 (45.8%)
Labour: 8747 (17.2%)
Lib Dem: 16187 (31.9%)
UKIP: 2147 (4.2%)
Independent: 276 (0.5%)
Others: 173 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 7063 (13.9%)

Sitting MP: Fiona Bruce (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Safe seat.

3. Crewe & Nantwich

2010 Result:
Conservative: 23420 (45.8%)
Labour: 17374 (34%)
Lib Dem: 7656 (15%)
BNP: 1043 (2%)
UKIP: 1414 (2.8%)
Independent: 177 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 6046 (11.8%)

Sitting MP: Edward Timpson (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Edward Timpson has cemented himself into this seat since he won the byelection and I think Labour are going to find it very hard to shift him.

4. Eddisbury

2010 Result:
Conservative: 23472 (51.7%)
Labour: 9794 (21.6%)
Lib Dem: 10217 (22.5%)
UKIP: 1931 (4.3%)
MAJORITY: 13255 (29.2%)

Sitting MP: Stephen O’Brien (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Safe seat.

5. Ellesmere Port & Neston

2010 Result:
Conservative: 15419 (34.9%)
Labour: 19750 (44.6%)
Lib Dem: 6663 (15.1%)
UKIP: 1619 (3.7%)
Independent: 782 (1.8%)
MAJORITY: 4331 (9.8%)

Sitting MP: Andrew Miller (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

6. Halton

2010 Result:
Conservative: 8339 (20.2%)
Labour: 23843 (57.7%)
Lib Dem: 5718 (13.8%)
BNP: 1563 (3.8%)
Green: 647 (1.6%)
UKIP: 1228 (3%)
MAJORITY: 15504 (37.5%)

Sitting MP: Derek Twigg (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

7. Macclesfield

2010 Result:
Conservative: 23503 (47%)
Labour: 10164 (20.3%)
Lib Dem: 11544 (23.1%)
Green: 840 (1.7%)
UKIP: 1418 (2.8%)
Others: 2590 (5.2%)
MAJORITY: 11959 (23.9%)

Sitting MP: David Rutley (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Safe seat.

8. Tatton

2010 Result:
Conservative: 24687 (54.6%)
Labour: 7803 (17.3%)
Lib Dem: 10200 (22.6%)
Independent: 2243 (5%)
Others: 298 (0.7%)
MAJORITY: 14487 (32%)

Sitting MP: George Osborne (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Safe seat.

9. Warrington North

2010 Result:
Conservative: 13364 (30.2%)
Labour: 20135 (45.5%)
Lib Dem: 9196 (20.8%)
Independent: 1516 (3.4%)
MAJORITY: 6771 (15.3%)

Sitting MP: Helen Jones (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Relatively safe seat.

10. Warrington South

2010 Result:
Conservative: 19641 (35.8%)
Labour: 18088 (33%)
Lib Dem: 15094 (27.5%)
Green: 427 (0.8%)
UKIP: 1624 (3%)
MAJORITY: 1553 (2.8%)

Sitting MP: David Mowat (Con)
Prediction: Labour gain

David Mowat’s fortunes rest entirely on who attracts the LibDem vote – him or his Labour opponent. You’d have to think the latter was more likely to.

11. Weaver Vale

2010 Result:
Conservative: 16953 (38.5%)
Labour: 15962 (36.3%)
Lib Dem: 8196 (18.6%)
BNP: 1063 (2.4%)
Green: 338 (0.8%)
UKIP: 1018 (2.3%)
Independent: 270 (0.6%)
Others: 190 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 991 (2.3%)

Sitting MP: Graham Evans (Lab)
Prediction: Labour gain

Ditto Warrington South.

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE

OUT NOW! The Politicos Guide to the General Election (by Iain Dale, Greg Callus, Robert Waller & Daniel Hamilton) £15.99 from Politicos.co.uk or £16.58 from Amazon. Also available as an eBook from Politicos.co.uk at £9.99 and Amazon at £10.19

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LBC Book Club: Iain Dale talks to singer Alfie Boe

Fascinating insight into the motivations and life of singing sensation Alfie Boe.

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