General Election Predictions

Final General Election Predictions 29: London North West

28 Apr 2015 at 20:32

Back in January I predicted the outcome of the General Election, seat by seat. Since then, I have done more research and altered some of the predictions taking into account various issues including new updated constituency polls by Lord Ashcroft. Over the next ten days I will be revisiting each county and region giving my final predictions. I’d still welcome feedback, even at this late stage.

LONDON NORTH WEST

Seats: 10
Current Political Makeup: Con 5 , Lab 3, LibDem 2
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 3, Lab 7
Final Prediction: Unchanged

Brent Central

2010 Result:
Conservative: 5067 (11.2%)
Labour: 18681 (41.2%)
Lib Dem: 20026 (44.2%)
Green: 668 (1.5%)
Respect: 230 (0.5%)
Christian: 488 (1.1%)
Independent: 163 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 1345 (3%)

Sitting MP: Sarah Teather (LibDem)
Prediction: Labour gain

I’d say this was a surefire Labour gain, but the Labour candidate (and former MP) Dawn Butler carries a lot of baggage. It won’t be heavy enough to deny her victory though, no matter how much local LibDems tell me they’re still in the game.

Brent North

2010 Result:
Conservative: 16486 (31.5%)
Labour: 24514 (46.9%)
Lib Dem: 8879 (17%)
Green: 725 (1.4%)
UKIP: 380 (0.7%)
English Dem: 247 (0.5%)
Independent: 734 (1.4%)
Others: 333 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 8028 (15.4%)

Sitting MP: Barry Gardiner (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat

Chipping Barnet

2010 Result:
Conservative: 24700 (48.8%)
Labour: 12773 (25.2%)
Lib Dem: 10202 (20.2%)
Green: 1021 (2%)
UKIP: 1442 (2.8%)
Independent: 470 (0.9%)
MAJORITY: 11927 (23.6%)

Sitting MP: Theresa Villiers (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Safe seat.

Finchley & Golders Green

2010 Result:
Conservative: 21688 (46%)
Labour: 15879 (33.7%)
Lib Dem: 8036 (17%)
Green: 737 (1.6%)
UKIP: 817 (1.7%)
MAJORITY: 5809 (12.3%)

Sitting MP: Mike Freer (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

A Labour seat during the Blair years, Finchley returned to its Tory roots in 2010. Mike Freer has a reputation as a good constituency MP and demographic changes will help him retain the seat, albeit with a reduced majority. *UPDATE: The latest Lord Ashcroft poll shows Labour just ahead here, which will give the Labour campaign some encouragement, but I would still be surprised to see them win.

Hampstead & Kilburn

2010 Result:
Conservative: 17290 (32.7%)
Labour: 17332 (32.8%)
Lib Dem: 16491 (31.2%)
BNP: 328 (0.6%)
Green: 759 (1.4%)
UKIP: 408 (0.8%)
Independent: 91 (0.2%)
Others: 123 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 42 (0.1%)

Sitting MP: Glenda Jackson (Lab)
Prediction: Conservative gain
Updated Prediction: Labour hold

Glenda Jackson is standing down. Her successor candidate, Tulip Siddiq, faces a doughty campaigner in the Tory Simon Marcus but this seat will be determined by whoever wins the most former LibDem voters to their side. UPDATE 11/1/15: I’ve had a lot of new info on this seat and have changed it to a Tory gain. UPDATE 17/3/15 The LibDem support seems to be going to Labour. The Ashcroft poll has them ahead 47-30. So a double change of mind here, I’m afraid!

Harrow East

2010 Result:
Conservative: 21435 (44.7%)
Labour: 18032 (37.6%)
Lib Dem: 6850 (14.3%)
Green: 793 (1.7%)
UKIP: 896 (1.9%)
MAJORITY: 3403 (7.1%)

Sitting MP: Bob Blackman (Con)
Prediction: Labour gain

I’d say this is a probable Labour gain, rather than a definite Labour gain. This is Tony McNulty’s old seat. Had he been refighting it, Labour’s chances would have been far higher. UPDATE 11/1/15: The Labour candidate Uma Kumaran, according to local media, is struggling to get much in the way of campaigning support from her local party and councillors. Also, the Ashcroft poll for this constituency puts the Conservatives ahead by three points. I will continue to watch this one. UPDATE: A new Ashcroft poll puts Labour ahead.

Harrow West

2010 Result:
Conservative: 16968 (36.8%)
Labour: 20111 (43.6%)
Lib Dem: 7458 (16.2%)
Green: 625 (1.4%)
UKIP: 954 (2.1%)
MAJORITY: 3143 (6.8%)

Sitting MP: Gareth Thomas (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Not a safe seat by any means but it’s unlikely Gareth Thomas will come a cropper.

Hendon

2010 Result:
Conservative: 19635 (42.3%)
Labour: 19529 (42.1%)
Lib Dem: 5734 (12.4%)
Green: 518 (1.1%)
UKIP: 958 (2.1%)
MAJORITY: 106 (0.2%)

Sitting MP: Matthew Offord
Prediction: Labour gain

If Labour don’t win this seat they must as well give up all hope.

Hornsey & Wood Green

2010 Result:
Conservative: 9174 (16.7%)
Labour: 18720 (34%)
Lib Dem: 25595 (46.5%)
Green: 1261 (2.3%)
Independent: 201 (0.4%)
Others: 91 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 6875 (12.5%)

Sitting MP: Lynne Featherstone (LibDem)
Prediction: Labour gain

Labour has a massive majority to overcome here, but they are pouring huge resources into this seat to win it back. Lynne Featherstone is a doughty campaigner and won’t be easy to shift, but if she is beaten it will be because of the collapse in LibDem support nationally.

Ruislip, Northwood & Pinner

2010 Result:
Conservative: 28866 (57.5%)
Labour: 9806 (19.5%)
Lib Dem: 8345 (16.6%)
Green: 740 (1.5%)
UKIP: 1351 (2.7%)
Christian: 198 (0.4%)
Others: 899 (1.8%)
MAJORITY: 19060 (38%)

Sitting MP: Nick Hurd (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Safe seat.

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE

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General Election Predictions

Final General Election Predictions 28: London North East

28 Apr 2015 at 20:23

Back in January I predicted the outcome of the General Election, seat by seat. Since then, I have done more research and altered some of the predictions taking into account various issues including new updated constituency polls by Lord Ashcroft. Over the next ten days I will be revisiting each county and region giving my final predictions. I’d still welcome feedback, even at this late stage.

LONDON NORTH EAST

Seats: 11
Current Political Makeup: Con 4, Lab 7
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 3, Lab 8
Final Preduction:

Chingford & Woodford Green

2010 Result:
Conservative: 22743 (52.8%)
Labour: 9780 (22.7%)
Lib Dem: 7242 (16.8%)
BNP: 1288 (3%)
Green: 650 (1.5%)
UKIP: 1133 (2.6%)
Independent: 202 (0.5%)
Others: 68 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 12963 (30.1%)

Sitting MP: Iain Duncan Smith (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Safe seat

Edmonton

2010 Result:
Conservative: 12052 (29.8%)
Labour: 21665 (53.7%)
Lib Dem: 4252 (10.5%)
Green: 516 (1.3%)
UKIP: 1036 (2.6%)
Christian: 350 (0.9%)
Independent: 127 (0.3%)
Others: 379 (0.9%)
MAJORITY: 9613 (23.8%)

Sitting MP: Andy Love (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Enfield North

2010 Result:
Conservative: 18804 (42.3%)
Labour: 17112 (38.5%)
Lib Dem: 5403 (12.2%)
BNP: 1228 (2.8%)
Green: 489 (1.1%)
UKIP: 938 (2.1%)
English Dem: 131 (0.3%)
Christian: 161 (0.4%)
Independent: 91 (0.2%)
Others: 96 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 1692 (3.8%)

Sitting MP: Nick de Bois (Con)
Prediction: Labour gain

This seat is more complicated than it looks. You’d think it would be a Labour banker to regain, but the local Labour Party is in dissaray after they re-selected Joan Ryan, who Nick De Bois defeated in 2010. She’s a gift to the Tories because of her record on expenses, and the circumstances surrounding her selection whiff to say the least. There are also demographic changes afoot in this seat which benefit the Conservatives. However, I’m going with Labour in my prediction as I think the odds still go marginally in their favour.

Enfield Southgate

2010 Result:
Conservative: 21928 (49.4%)
Labour: 14302 (32.2%)
Lib Dem: 6124 (13.8%)
Green: 632 (1.4%)
UKIP: 505 (1.1%)
Respect: 174 (0.4%)
English Dem: 173 (0.4%)
Independent: 391 (0.9%)
Others: 123 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 7626 (17.2%)

Sitting MP: David Burrowes (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Portillo’s old seat. I doubt there will be much of an upset this time.

Hackney North & Stoke Newington

2010 Result:
Conservative: 6759 (14.5%)
Labour: 25553 (55%)
Lib Dem: 11092 (23.9%)
Green: 2133 (4.6%)
Christian: 299 (0.6%)
Independent: 96 (0.2%)
Others: 529 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 14461 (31.1%)

Sitting MP: Diane Abbott (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

Ilford North

2010 Result:
Conservative: 21506 (45.7%)
Labour: 16102 (34.2%)
Lib Dem: 5966 (12.7%)
BNP: 1545 (3.3%)
Green: 572 (1.2%)
UKIP: 871 (1.9%)
Others: 456 (1%)
MAJORITY: 5404 (11.5%)

Sitting MP: Lee Scott (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

This seat will definitely be targeted by Labour but unless they are heading for a decent sized majority I don’t see it falling to them.

Ilford South

2010 Result:
Conservative: 14014 (27.4%)
Labour: 25301 (49.4%)
Lib Dem: 8679 (17%)
Green: 1319 (2.6%)
UKIP: 1132 (2.2%)
Others: 746 (1.5%)
MAJORITY: 11287 (22%)

Sitting MP: Mike Gapes (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

Islington North

2010 Result:
Conservative: 6339 (14.2%)
Labour: 24276 (54.5%)
Lib Dem: 11875 (26.7%)
Green: 1348 (3%)
UKIP: 716 (1.6%)
MAJORITY: 12401 (27.8%)

Sitting MP: Jeremy Corbyn (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

Leyton & Wanstead

2010 Result:
Conservative: 8928 (22.2%)
Labour: 17511 (43.6%)
Lib Dem: 11095 (27.6%)
BNP: 561 (1.4%)
Green: 562 (1.4%)
UKIP: 1080 (2.7%)
Christian: 342 (0.9%)
Others: 80 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 6416 (16%)

Sitting MP: John Cryer (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat

Tottenham

2010 Result:
Conservative: 6064 (14.9%)
Labour: 24128 (59.3%)
Lib Dem: 7197 (17.7%)
Green: 980 (2.4%)
UKIP: 466 (1.1%)
Christian: 262 (0.6%)
TUSC: 1057 (2.6%)
Independent: 143 (0.4%)
Others: 390 (1%)
MAJORITY: 16931 (41.6%)

Sitting MP: David Lammy (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

Walthamstow

2010 Result:
Conservative: 5734 (14%)
Labour: 21252 (51.8%)
Lib Dem: 11774 (28.7%)
Green: 767 (1.9%)
UKIP: 823 (2%)
Christian: 248 (0.6%)
TUSC: 279 (0.7%)
Independent: 117 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 9478 (23.1%)

Sitting MP: Stella Creasy (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE

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General Election Predictions

Final General Election Predictions 27: London East

28 Apr 2015 at 15:42

Back in January I predicted the outcome of the General Election, seat by seat. Since then, I have done more research and altered some of the predictions taking into account various issues including new updated constituency polls by Lord Ashcroft. Over the next ten days I will be revisiting each county and region giving my final predictions. I’d still welcome feedback, even at this late stage.

Seats: 8
Current Political Makeup: Con 2, Lab 6
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 2, Lab 6
Final Prediction: Unchanged

Barking

2010 Result:
Conservative: 8073 (17.8%)
Labour: 24628 (54.3%)
Lib Dem: 3719 (8.2%)
BNP: 6620 (14.6%)
Green: 317 (0.7%)
UKIP: 1300 (2.9%)
Christian: 482 (1.1%)
Independent: 77 (0.2%)
Others: 127 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 16555 (36.5%)

Sitting MP: Margaret Hodge (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

Bethnal Green & Bow

2010 Result:
Conservative: 7071 (13.9%)
Labour: 21784 (42.9%)
Lib Dem: 10210 (20.1%)
BNP: 1405 (2.8%)
Green: 856 (1.7%)
Respect: 8532 (16.8%)
Independent: 277 (0.5%)
Others: 593 (1.2%)
MAJORITY: 11574 (22.8%)

Sitting MP: Rushanara Ali (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe Labour seat.

Dagenham & Rainham

2010 Result:
Conservative: 15183 (34.3%)
Labour: 17813 (40.3%)
Lib Dem: 3806 (8.6%)
BNP: 4952 (11.2%)
Green: 296 (0.7%)
UKIP: 1569 (3.5%)
Christian: 305 (0.7%)
Independent: 308 (0.7%)
MAJORITY: 2630 (5.9%)

Sitting MP: Jon Cruddas (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

The Tories had high hopes of winning this seat in 2010, but that time is long gone.

East Ham

2010 Result:
Conservative: 7645 (15.2%)
Labour: 35471 (70.4%)
Lib Dem: 5849 (11.6%)
Green: 586 (1.2%)
English Dem: 822 (1.6%)
MAJORITY: 27826 (55.2%)

Sitting MP: Stephen Timms (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

Hackney South & Shoreditch

2010 Result:
Conservative: 5800 (13.5%)
Labour: 23888 (55.7%)
Lib Dem: 9600 (22.4%)
Green: 1493 (3.5%)
UKIP: 651 (1.5%)
Liberal: 539 (1.3%)
Christian: 434 (1%)
Independent: 95 (0.2%)
Others: 358 (0.8%)
MAJORITY: 14288 (33.3%)

Sitting MP: Meg Hillier (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat

Hornchurch & Upminster

2010 Result:
Conservative: 27469 (51.4%)
Labour: 11098 (20.8%)
Lib Dem: 7426 (13.9%)
BNP: 3421 (6.4%)
Green: 542 (1%)
UKIP: 2848 (5.3%)
Christian: 281 (0.5%)
Independent: 305 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 16371 (30.7%

Sitting MP: Angela Watkinson (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Safe seat

Romford

2010 Result:
Conservative: 26031 (56%)
Labour: 9077 (19.5%)
Lib Dem: 5572 (12%)
BNP: 2438 (5.2%)
Green: 447 (1%)
UKIP: 2050 (4.4%)
English Dem: 603 (1.3%)
Independent: 151 (0.3%)
Others: 112 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 16954 (36.5%)

Sitting MP: Andrew Rosindell
Prediction: Conservative hold

Safe seat.

West Ham

2010 Result:
Conservative: 6888 (14.7%)
Labour: 29422 (62.7%)
Lib Dem: 5392 (11.5%)
Green: 645 (1.4%)
UKIP: 766 (1.6%)
Independent: 1245 (2.7%)
Others: 2593 (5.5%)
MAJORITY: 22534 (48%)

Sitting MP: Lyn Brown (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE

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General Election Predictions

Final Seat by Seat General Election Predictions 26: Northamptonshire

28 Apr 2015 at 12:10

Back in January I predicted the outcome of the General Election, seat by seat. Since then, I have done more research and altered some of the predictions taking into account various issues including new updated constituency polls by Lord Ashcroft. Over the next ten days I will be revisiting each county and region giving my final predictions. I’d still welcome feedback, even at this late stage.

NORTHAMPTONSHIRE

Seats: 7
Current Political Makeup: Con 6, Lab 1
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 5 , Lab 2
Final Prediction: Unchanged

1. Corby

2010 Result:
Conservative: 22886 (42.2%)
Labour: 20991 (38.7%)
Lib Dem: 7834 (14.4%)
BNP: 2525 (4.7%)
MAJORITY: 1895 (3.5%)

BY ELECTION

Andy Sawford (Labour) 17267 48.4% (+9.8%)
Christine Emmett (Conservative) 9476 26.6% (-15.6%)
Margot Parker (UKIP) 5108 14.3% (n/a)
Jill Hope (Liberal Democrat) 1770 5% (-9.5%)
Gordon Riddell (BNP) 614 1.7% (-3%)
David Wickham (English Democrat) 432 1.2% (n/a)
Jonathan Hornett (Green) 378 1.1% (n/a)
Ian Gillman (Independent) 212 0.6% (n/a)
Peter Reynolds (Cannabis Law Reform) 137 0.4% (n/a)
David Bishop (Elvis Loves Pets) 99 0.3% (n/a)
Mr Mozzarella (Independent) 73 0.2% (n/a)
Rohen Kapur (Young People) 39 0.1% (n/a)
Adam Lotun (Democracy 2015) 35 0.1% (n/a)
Christopher Scotton (United People) 25 0.1% (n/a)
MAJORITY 7791 21.8%
Turnout 44.8% (-24.4%)

Sitting MP: Andy Sawford (Lab)
Prediction: Labour gain
When Louise Mensch moved to New York Labour was always going to win the by-election and Andy Sawford did so with a big majority. He’s likely to increase it in May.

2. Daventry

2010 Result:
Conservative: 29252 (56.5%)
Labour: 8168 (15.8%)
Lib Dem: 10064 (19.4%)
Green: 770 (1.5%)
UKIP: 2333 (4.5%)
English Dem: 1187 (2.3%)
MAJORITY: 19188 (37.1%)

Sitting MP: Chris Heaton-Harris (Con
Prediction: Conservative hold

Safe seat.

3. Kettering

2010 Result:
Conservative: 23247 (49.1%)
Labour: 14153 (29.9%)
Lib Dem: 7498 (15.8%)
BNP: 1366 (2.9%)
English Dem: 952 (2%)
Others: 112 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 9094 (19.2%)

Sitting MP: Philip Hollobone
Prediction: Conservative hold

Relatively safe seat.

4. Northampton North

2010 Result:
Conservative: 13735 (34.1%)
Labour: 11799 (29.3%)
Lib Dem: 11250 (27.9%)
BNP: 1316 (3.3%)
Green: 443 (1.1%)
UKIP: 1238 (3.1%)
Christian: 98 (0.2%)
Independent: 334 (0.8%)
Others: 58 (0.1%)
MAJORITY: 1936 (4.8%

Sitting MP: Michael Ellis (Con)
Prediction: Labour gain

I can’t see any other result than a Labour gain here, assuming the LibDem vote goes to Labour. UPDATE: The Ashcroft poll only has Labour one point ahead, so this one could be closer than I originall thought.

5. Northampton South

2010 Result:
Conservative: 15917 (40.8%)
Labour: 9913 (25.4%)
Lib Dem: 7579 (19.4%)
Green: 363 (0.9%)
UKIP: 1897 (4.9%)
English Dem: 618 (1.6%)
Independent: 2242 (5.8%)
Others: 449 (1.2%)
MAJORITY: 6004 (15.4%)

Sitting MP: Brian Binley (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Brian Binley is standing down. so this is not as safe as it appears, but unless Labour are heading for a massive majority, Binley’s successor, David Macintosh, should be OK.

6. South Northamptonshire

2010 Result:
Conservative: 33081 (55.2%)
Labour: 10380 (17.3%)
Lib Dem: 12603 (21%)
Green: 685 (1.1%)
UKIP: 2406 (4%)
English Dem: 735 (1.2%)
MAJORITY: 20478 (34.2%)

Sitting MP: Andrea Leadsom (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Safe seat.

7. Wellingborough

2010 Result:
Conservative: 24918 (48.2%)
Labour: 13131 (25.4%)
Lib Dem: 8848 (17.1%)
BNP: 1596 (3.1%)
Green: 480 (0.9%)
UKIP: 1636 (3.2%)
English Dem: 530 (1%)
TUSC: 249 (0.5%)
Independent: 240 (0.5%)
Others: 33 (0.1%)
MAJORITY: 11787 (22.8%)

Sitting MP: Peter Bone (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Mrs Bone will be pleased.

To all see previous predictions. click HERE

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General Election Predictions

Final General Election Predictions 25: Derbyshire

28 Apr 2015 at 11:49

Back in January I predicted the outcome of the General Election, seat by seat. Since then, I have done more research and altered some of the predictions taking into account various issues including new updated constituency polls by Lord Ashcroft. Over the next ten days I will be revisiting each county and region giving my final predictions. I’d still welcome feedback, even at this late stage.

DERBYSHIRE

Seats: 11
Current Political Makeup: Con 6, Lab 5
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 4, Lab 7
Final Prediction: Unchanged

1. Amber Valley

2010 Result:
Conservative: 17746 (38.6%)
Labour: 17210 (37.4%)
Lib Dem: 6636 (14.4%)
BNP: 3195 (7%)
UKIP: 906 (2%)
Others: 265 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 536 (1.2%)

Sitting MP: Nigel Mills (Con)
Prediction: Labour gain

Surefire Labour gain. Nigel Mills ‘Candy Crush’ incident won’t have helped him.

2. Bolsover

2010 Result:
Conservative: 10812 (24.6%)
Labour: 21994 (50%)
Lib Dem: 6821 (15.5%)
BNP: 2640 (6%)
UKIP: 1721 (3.9%)
MAJORITY: 11182 (25.4%)

Sitting MP: Dennis Skinner (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

3. Chesterfield

2010 Result:
Conservative: 7214 (15.7%)
Labour: 17891 (39%)
Lib Dem: 17342 (37.8%)
Green: 600 (1.3%)
UKIP: 1432 (3.1%)
English Dem: 1213 (2.6%)
Independent: 147 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 549 (1.2%)

Sitting MP: Toby Perkins (Lab)
Prediction: Increased Labour majority

One of only three Labour gains at the last election (from the LibDems, in the case of Chesterfield), Toby Perkins will have a very decent majority in May 2015.

4. Derby North

2010 Result:
Conservative: 14283 (31.7%)
Labour: 14896 (33%)
Lib Dem: 12638 (28%)
BNP: 2000 (4.4%)
UKIP: 829 (1.8%)
Independent: 264 (0.6%)
Others: 170 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 613 (1.4%)

Sitting MP: Chris Williamson (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

A genuine three way marginal. At least, it was at the last election. Expect Chris Williamson to capitalise on LibDem woes.

5. Derby South

2010 Result:
Conservative: 11729 (28.5%)
Labour: 17851 (43.3%)
Lib Dem: 8430 (20.5%)
UKIP: 1821 (4.4%)
Independent: 1357 (3.3%)
MAJORITY: 6122 (14.9%)

Sitting MP: Margaret Beckett (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe Labour seat.

6. Derbyshire Dales

2010 Result:
Conservative: 24378 (52.1%)
Labour: 9061 (19.4%)
Lib Dem: 10512 (22.5%)
Green: 772 (1.7%)
UKIP: 1779 (3.8%)
Others: 278 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 13866 (29.6%)

Sitting MP: Patrick McLoughlin (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Safe seat.

7. Erewash

2010 Result:
Conservative: 18805 (39.5%)
Labour: 16304 (34.2%)
Lib Dem: 8343 (17.5%)
BNP: 2337 (4.9%)
Green: 534 (1.1%)
UKIP: 855 (1.8%)
Independent: 464 (1%)
MAJORITY: 2501 (5.2%)

Sitting MP: Jessica Lee (Con)
Prediction: Labour gain

Jessica Lee is standing down, whih will certainly hurt the Tories’ chances of retaining this seat. It would be astonishing if Labour didn’t win here in May.

8. High Peak

2010 Result:
Conservative: 20587 (40.9%)
Labour: 15910 (31.6%)
Lib Dem: 10993 (21.8%)
Green: 922 (1.8%)
UKIP: 1690 (3.4%)
Independent: 161 (0.3%)
Others: 74 (0.1%)
MAJORITY: 4677 (9.3%)

Sitting MP: Andrew Bingham (Con)
Prediction: Narrow Conservative hold

Could go either way, but the majority here is big enough to give Andrew Bignham hope of retaining the seat he won in 2010. However, the problem is that the LibDems have a 22% vote share here. If this reduces by half, it’s likely Labour could snatch the seat. I’m giving Bingham the benefit of a very severe doubt.

9. Mid Derbyshire

2010 Result:
Conservative: 22877 (48.3%)
Labour: 11585 (24.5%)
Lib Dem: 9711 (20.5%)
BNP: 1698 (3.6%)
UKIP: 1252 (2.6%)
Others: 219 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 11292 (23.9%)

Sitting MP: Pauline Latham (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Safe seat.

10. North East Derbyshire

2010 Result:
Conservative: 15503 (33%)
Labour: 17948 (38.2%)
Lib Dem: 10947 (23.3%)
UKIP: 2636 (5.6%)
MAJORITY: 2445 (5.2%)

Sitting MP: Natascha Engel (Lab)
Prediction: Increased Labour majority

11. South Derbyshire

2010 Result:
Conservative: 22935 (45.5%)
Labour: 15807 (31.4%)
Lib Dem: 8012 (15.9%)
BNP: 2193 (4.3%)
UKIP: 1206 (2.4%)
Others: 266 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 7128 (14.1%)

Sitting MP: Heather Wheeler (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Likely to be a smaller majority, but Heather Wheeler looks safe here.

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General Election Predictions

Final General Election Predictions 24: Staffordshire

28 Apr 2015 at 09:06

Back in January I predicted the outcome of the General Election, seat by seat. Since then, I have done more research and altered some of the predictions taking into account various issues including new updated constituency polls by Lord Ashcroft. Over the next ten days I will be revisiting each county and region giving my final predictions. I’d still welcome feedback, even at this late stage.

STAFFORDSHIRE

Seats: 12
Current Political Makeup: Con 8, Lab 4
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 7, Lab 5
Final Prediction: Unchanged

1. Burton

2010 Result:
Conservative: 22188 (44.5%)
Labour: 15884 (31.9%)
Lib Dem: 7891 (15.8%)
BNP: 2409 (4.8%)
UKIP: 1451 (2.9%)
MAJORITY: 6304 (12.7%)

Sitting MP: Andrew Griffiths (Con)
Prediction: Narrow Conservative hold

Andrew Griffiths has made the constituency his priority and his hope will be that this strategy has paid off. He’s got a biger majority than Labour ever enjoyed during the years they held the seat between 1997 and 2010 and that’s why I think he’ll hand on. Just.

2. Cannock Chase

2010 Result:
Conservative: 18271 (40.1%)
Labour: 15076 (33.1%)
Lib Dem: 7732 (17%)
BNP: 2168 (4.8%)
UKIP: 1580 (3.5%)
Independent: 380 (0.8%)
Others: 352 (0.8%)
MAJORITY: 3195 (7%)

Sitting MP: Aidan Burley (Con)
Prediction: Narrow Labour gain

Burley his standing down after ‘Nazigate’ and this certainly will help the Labour cause. It’s not a lost cause for the Tories but the odds are that Labour will regain a seat they held from 1992 to 2010. UPDATE: UKIP got 33% here in June. But who will their votes be taken from?

3. Lichfield

2010 Result:
Conservative: 28048 (54.4%)
Labour: 10230 (19.8%)
Lib Dem: 10365 (20.1%)
UKIP: 2920 (5.7%)
MAJORITY: 17683 (34.3%)

Sitting MP: Michael Fabricant (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Safe seat.

4. Newcastle Under Lyme

2010 Result:
Conservative: 14841 (34.4%)
Labour: 16393 (38%)
Lib Dem: 8466 (19.6%)
UKIP: 3491 (8.1%)
MAJORITY: 1552 (3.6%)

Sitting MP: Paul Farrelly (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

This seat had a Labour majority of more than 17,000 in 1997. Given it’s only 1552 now, this seat must surely be in the Tories’ longterm sights. There’s a substantial LibDem vote for both parties to bite into. I would expect the majority of this to go to Labour, so Paul Farrelly’s majority ought to increase.

5. South Staffordshire

2010 Result:
Conservative: 26834 (53.2%)
Labour: 10244 (20.3%)
Lib Dem: 8427 (16.7%)
BNP: 1928 (3.8%)
UKIP: 2753 (5.5%)
Independent: 254 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 16590 (32.9%)

Sitting MP: Gavin Williamson (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Safe seat.

6. Stafford

2010 Result:
Conservative: 22047 (43.9%)
Labour: 16587 (33%)
Lib Dem: 8211 (16.3%)
BNP: 1103 (2.2%)
Green: 564 (1.1%)
UKIP: 1727 (3.4%)
MAJORITY: 5460 (10.9%)

Sitting MP: Jeremy Lefroy (Con)
Prediction: Narrow Conservative hold

This is a very difficult one to call. It was a Tory seat until 1997 and then went Labour until 2010. Staffordshire does seem to moving away from Labour and it has to be said that the local election results here don’t point towards very good results for Labour. I’m going with my gut instinct, which is a Tory hold but with a very small majority.

7. Staffordshire Moorlands

2010 Result:
Conservative: 19793 (45.2%)
Labour: 13104 (29.9%)
Lib Dem: 7338 (16.7%)
UKIP: 3580 (8.2%)
MAJORITY: 6689 (15.3%)

Sitting MP: Karen Bradley (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Another seat which Labour held during the Blair/Brown years. Overturning a majority of this size in one go might be beyond Labour this time.

8. Stoke on Trent Central

2010 Result:
Conservative: 6833 (21%)
Labour: 12605 (38.8%)
Lib Dem: 7039 (21.7%)
BNP: 2502 (7.7%)
UKIP: 1402 (4.3%)
TUSC: 133 (0.4%)
Independent: 959 (3%)
Others: 997 (3.1%)
MAJORITY: 5566 (17.1%)

Sitting MP: Tristram Hunt (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Realtively safe Labour seat, even though the majority doesn’t look that high.

9. Stoke on Trent North

2010 Result:
Conservative: 9580 (23.8%)
Labour: 17815 (44.3%)
Lib Dem: 7120 (17.7%)
BNP: 3196 (8%)
UKIP: 2485 (6.2%)
MAJORITY: 8235 (20.5%)

Sitting MP: Joan Walley (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

10. Stoke on Trent South

2010 Result:
Conservative: 11316 (28.4%)
Labour: 15446 (38.8%)
Lib Dem: 6323 (15.9%)
BNP: 3762 (9.4%)
UKIP: 1363 (3.4%)
Independent: 434 (1.1%)
Others: 1208 (3%)
MAJORITY: 4130 (10.4%)

Sitting MP: Robert Flello (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

11. Stone

2010 Result:
Conservative: 23890 (50.6%)
Labour: 9770 (20.7%)
Lib Dem: 10598 (22.4%)
Green: 490 (1%)
UKIP: 2481 (5.3%)
MAJORITY: 13292 (28.1%)

Sitting MP: Sir Bill Cash (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Safe seat.

12. Tamworth

2010 Result:
Conservative: 21238 (45.8%)
Labour: 15148 (32.7%)
Lib Dem: 7516 (16.2%)
UKIP: 2253 (4.9%)
Christian: 235 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 6090 (13.1%)

Sitting MP: Chris Pincher (Con)
Prediction: Narrow Conservative hold

Another former Labour seat which got a good sized Tory majority in 2010. It’s possible that Labour could take it back but all the electoral stars would need to align, including Labour gaining much of the former LibDem vote.

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General Election Predictions

Final General Election Predictions 23: Leicestershire

28 Apr 2015 at 09:04

Back in January I predicted the outcome of the General Election, seat by seat. Since then, I have done more research and altered some of the predictions taking into account various issues including new updated constituency polls by Lord Ashcroft. Over the next ten days I will be revisiting each county and region giving my final predictions. I’d still welcome feedback, even at this late stage.

LEICESTERSHIRE

Seats: 10
Current Political Makeup: Con 7, Lab 3
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 7, Lab 3
Final Prediction: Unchanged

1. Bosworth

2010 Result:
Conservative: 23132 (42.6%)
Labour: 8674 (16%)
Lib Dem: 18100 (33.3%)
BNP: 2458 (4.5%)
UKIP: 1098 (2%)
English Dem: 615 (1.1%)
Others: 197 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 5032 (9.3%)

Sitting MP: David Tredinnick (Con)
Prediction: Increased Conservative majority

Safe seat.

2. Charnwood

2010 Result:
Conservative: 26560 (49.6%)
Labour: 10536 (19.7%)
Lib Dem: 11531 (21.5%)
BNP: 3116 (5.8%)
UKIP: 1799 (3.4%)
MAJORITY: 15029 (28.1%)

Sitting MP: Stephen Dorrell (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Safe seat.

3. Harborough

010 Result:
Conservative: 26894 (48.9%)
Labour: 6981 (12.7%)
Lib Dem: 17097 (31.1%)
BNP: 1715 (3.1%)
UKIP: 1462 (2.7%)
English Dem: 568 (1%)
Independent: 228 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 9797 (17.8%)

Sitting MP: Edward Garnier (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Safe seat.

4. Leicester East

2010 Result:
Conservative: 11722 (24.4%)
Labour: 25804 (53.8%)
Lib Dem: 6817 (14.2%)
BNP: 1700 (3.5%)
Green: 733 (1.5%)
UKIP: 725 (1.5%)
Others: 494 (1%)
MAJORITY: 14082 (29.3%)

Sitting MP: Keith Vaz (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

5. Leicester South

2010 Result:
Conservative: 10066 (21.4%)
Labour: 21479 (45.6%)
Lib Dem: 12671 (26.9%)
BNP: 1418 (3%)
Green: 770 (1.6%)
UKIP: 720 (1.5%)
MAJORITY: 8808 (18.7%)

Sitting MP: Jonathan Ashworth (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat. Briefly held by the LibDems in a pre 2010 by-election, but they don’t stand a hope here now.

6. Leicester West

2010 Result:
Conservative: 9728 (27.2%)
Labour: 13745 (38.4%)
Lib Dem: 8107 (22.6%)
BNP: 2158 (6%)
Green: 639 (1.8%)
UKIP: 883 (2.5%)
TUSC: 157 (0.4%)
Independent: 181 (0.5%)
Others: 221 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 4017 (11.2%)

Sitting MP: Liz Kendall (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

The most marginal of the three Leicester seats, but Liz Kendall is quite safe.

7. Loughborough

2010 Result:
Conservative: 21971 (41.6%)
Labour: 18227 (34.5%)
Lib Dem: 9675 (18.3%)
BNP: 2040 (3.9%)
UKIP: 925 (1.8%)
MAJORITY: 3744 (7.1%)

Sitting MP: Nicky Morgan (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Very difficult to call, this one. Nicky Morgan may be saved by her high profile and the fact that she has established a good reputation locally. However, the LibDems have scored 18% of the vote here in the last three general elections. All it needs is for a substantial amount of the that vote to transfer to Labour and Nicky Morgan is toast. Interestingly UKIP only score 1.8% here, but the BNP got 3.9%. where that vote goes, will also be important. Nicky Morgan is a good friend and I’d love to be confident she can pull through here, but my prediction has to be guided by the electoral arithmetic and nothing else. UPDATE 12/1/15: I’m revising this prediction to a Conservative hold due to further information I have received on the seat and also because of polling information I had missed, including the Ashcroft constituency poll, which puts Nicky Morgan ahead by three points.

8. North West Leicestershire

2010 Result:
Conservative: 23147 (44.6%)
Labour: 15636 (30.1%)
Lib Dem: 8639 (16.6%)
BNP: 3396 (6.5%)
UKIP: 1134 (2.2%)
MAJORITY: 7511 (14.5%)

Sitting MP: Andrew Bridgen (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

This looks like a safe Conservative seat but isn’t. Through the Blair/Brown years it was held by Labour and could go Labour again if there was a reasonable sized Labour majority. All indications are, thought, that the seat will remain Tory, albeit with a reduced majority.

9. Rutland & Melton

2010 Result:
Conservative: 28228 (51.1%)
Labour: 7893 (14.3%)
Lib Dem: 14228 (25.8%)
BNP: 1757 (3.2%)
UKIP: 2526 (4.6%)
Independent: 588 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 14000 (25.4%)

Sitting MP: Sir Alan Duncan (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Safe seat.

10. South Leicestershire

2010 Result:
Conservative: 27000 (49.5%)
Labour: 11392 (20.9%)
Lib Dem: 11476 (21%)
BNP: 2721 (5%)
UKIP: 1988 (3.6%)
MAJORITY: 15524 (28.4%)

Sitting MP: Andrew Robothan (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Safe seat

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General Election Predictions

Final General Election Predictions 22: Bristol & Surrounds

28 Apr 2015 at 08:41

Back in January I predicted the outcome of the General Election, seat by seat. Since then, I have done more research and altered some of the predictions taking into account various issues including new updated constituency polls by Lord Ashcroft. Over the next ten days I will be revisiting each county and region giving my final predictions. I’d still welcome feedback, even at this late stage.

Bristol & Surrounds

Seats: 11
Current Political Makeup: Con 6, Lab 2, LibDem 3
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 5, Lab 3, LibDem 3
Final Prediction: Con 6, Lab 3, LibDem 2

1. Bath

2010 Result:
Conservative: 14768 (31.4%)
Labour: 3251 (6.9%)
Lib Dem: 26651 (56.6%)
Green: 1120 (2.4%)
UKIP: 890 (1.9%)
Christian: 250 (0.5%)
Independent: 56 (0.1%)
Others: 100 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 11883 (25.2%)

Sitting MP: Don Foster (LibDem)
Prediction: LibDem hold

The Conservatives have been desperate to win this seat back since Chris Patten lost it in 1992, but it’s extremely unlikely to revert to the fold despite the fact that Don Foster is standing down.

2. Bristol East

2010 Result:
Conservative: 12749 (28.3%)
Labour: 16471 (36.6%)
Lib Dem: 10993 (24.4%)
BNP: 1960 (4.4%)
Green: 803 (1.8%)
UKIP: 1510 (3.4%)
English Dem: 347 (0.8%)
TUSC: 184 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 3722 (8.3%)

Sitting MP: Kerry McCarthy (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

This has consistently been a Labour seat and Kerry McCarthy is likely to increase her majority here.

3. Bristol North West

2010 Result:
Conservative: 19115 (38%)
Labour: 13059 (25.9%)
Lib Dem: 15841 (31.5%)
Green: 511 (1%)
UKIP: 1175 (2.3%)
English Dem: 635 (1.3%)
MAJORITY: 3274 (6.5%)

Sitting MP: Charlotte Leslie (Con)
Prediction: Narrow Conservative hold

A Labour seat throughout the Blair/Brown years Charlotte Leslie did well to win this last time. It was due to a huge rise in the LibDem vote and a collapse in the Labour vote from 47% to 26%. Labour’s chances of winning this seat back depend entirely on whether they can win those LibDem voters back. Local opinion seems to suggest that Charlotte Leslie may well squeak home.

4. Bristol South

2010 Result:
Conservative: 11086 (22.9%)
Labour: 18600 (38.4%)
Lib Dem: 13866 (28.7%)
BNP: 1739 (3.6%)
Green: 1216 (2.5%)
UKIP: 1264 (2.6%)
English Dem: 400 (0.8%)
TUSC: 206 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 4734 (9.8%)

Sitting MP: Dawn Primarolo (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe Labour seat.

5. Bristol West

2010 Result:
Conservative: 10169 (18.4%)
Labour: 15227 (27.5%)
Lib Dem: 26593 (48%)
Green: 2090 (3.8%)
UKIP: 655 (1.2%)
English Dem: 270 (0.5%)
Independent: 343 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 11366 (20.5%)

Sitting MP: Stephen Williams (LibDem)
Prediction: LibDem hold
Updated Prediction: Labour gain

Given the size of Stephen Williams’ majority I had this in the Dead Cert Hold category, but there is a big student vote in this seat and that could prove to be his downfall. So I have relegated this seat to Probable. But overturning an 11,000 majority is probably too much for Labour. Probably. UPDATE: The latest Ashcroft poll here is astonishing. LibDems down to 20% and Labour on 38% with the Greens on 25%. Unless this is a rogue, then you’d have to put this down as a pretty dead cert Labour gain now.

6. Filton & Bradley Stoke

2010 Result:
Conservative: 19686 (40.8%)
Labour: 12772 (26.4%)
Lib Dem: 12197 (25.3%)
BNP: 1328 (2.7%)
Green: 441 (0.9%)
UKIP: 1506 (3.1%)
Christian: 199 (0.4%)
Others: 172 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 6914 (14.3%)

Sitting MP: Jack Lopresti (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

This was a new seat and was expected to be a three way marginal last time. However, it didn’t quite turn out like that. A lot depends on whether the opposition to the Tories is still split evenly in 2015. I expect a much reduced Tory majority here.

7. Kingswood

2010 Result:
Conservative: 19362 (40.4%)
Labour: 16917 (35.3%)
Lib Dem: 8072 (16.8%)
BNP: 1311 (2.7%)
Green: 383 (0.8%)
UKIP: 1528 (3.2%)
English Dem: 333 (0.7%)
MAJORITY: 2445 (5.1%)

Sitting MP: Chris Skidmore (Con)
Prediction: Labour gain
Updated Prediction: Conservative hold

If Chris Skidmore pulls this one off, he’ll be the toast of CCHQ. Sadly for him, it is unlikely to happen. This had been quite a safe Labour seat in the previous four elections and unless there are demographic changes afoot here that I am not aware of, it’s most likely to return to the Labour fold. UPDATE: An April Ashcroft poll puts Chris Skidmore 9 points ahead of his Labour opponent, so I am revising this prediction on the basis of that.

8. North East Somerset

2010 Result:
Conservative: 21130 (41.3%)
Labour: 16216 (31.7%)
Lib Dem: 11433 (22.3%)
Green: 670 (1.3%)
UKIP: 1754 (3.4%)
MAJORITY: 4914 (9.6%)

Sitting MP: Jacob Rees-Mogg (Con)
Prediction: Narrow Conservative hold

It’s unthinkable to imagine Parliament without Jacob Rees-Mogg, but there’s no mistake that he’s under threat from Labour here. They held the seat from 1997 to 2010 and will be going after the substantial LibDem vote.

9. North Somerset

2010 Result:
Conservative: 28549 (49.3%)
Labour: 6448 (11.1%)
Lib Dem: 20687 (35.7%)
UKIP: 2257 (3.9%)
MAJORITY: 7862 (13.6%)

Sitting MP: Liam Fox (Con)
Prediction: Increased Conservative majority

Safe seat.

10. Thornbury & Yate

2010 Result:
Conservative: 17916 (37.2%)
Labour: 3385 (7%)
Lib Dem: 25032 (51.9%)
UKIP: 1709 (3.5%)
Others: 184 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 7116 (14.8%)

Sitting MP: Steve Webb (LibDem)
Prediction: LibDem hold

I had this down as a Dead Cert LibDem Hold but if Labour perform strongly and take enough votes off the LibDems this seat could go Conservative. I still expect Steve Webb to retain it as he will have built up quite a substantial incumbency vote.

11. Weston Super Mare

2010 Result:
Conservative: 23356 (44.3%)
Labour: 5772 (10.9%)
Lib Dem: 20665 (39.2%)
BNP: 1098 (2.1%)
UKIP: 1406 (2.7%)
English Dem: 275 (0.5%)
Independent: 144 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 2691 (5.1%)

Sitting MP: John Penrose (Con)
Prediction: Increased Conservative majority

About to become a safe seat.

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE

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General Election Predictions

Final General Election Predictions 21: Somerset

28 Apr 2015 at 08:06

Back in January I predicted the outcome of the General Election, seat by seat. Since then, I have done more research and altered some of the predictions taking into account various issues including new updated constituency polls by Lord Ashcroft. Over the next ten days I will be revisiting each county and region giving my final predictions. I’d still welcome feedback, even at this late stage.

SOMERSET

Seats: 5
Current Political Makeup: Con 1, LibDem 4
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 4, LibDem 1
Final Prediction: Unchanged

1. Bridgwater & Somerset West

2010 Result:
Conservative: 24675 (45.3%)
Labour: 9332 (17.1%)
Lib Dem: 15426 (28.3%)
BNP: 1282 (2.4%)
Green: 859 (1.6%)
UKIP: 2604 (4.8%)
Independent: 315 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 9249 (17%)

Sitting MP: Ian Liddell-Grainger
Prediction: Conservative hold

Safe seat.

2. Somerton & Frome

2010 Result:
Conservative: 26976 (44.5%)
Labour: 2675 (4.4%)
Lib Dem: 28793 (47.5%)
UKIP: 1932 (3.2%)
Others: 236 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 1817 (3%)

Sitting MP: David Heath (LibDem)
Prediction: Conservative gain

LibDem HQ must have been tearing their hair out when David Heath announced his retirement as he stood the best prospect of retaining this seat. His current majority is the largest he has ever enjoyed, but that is largely because at the last election the UKIP vote doubled to nearly 2,000. If they do the same in 2015 they could deny the Conservatives a gain they thought they had in the bag last time.

3. Taunton Deane

2010 Result:
Conservative: 24538 (42.2%)
Labour: 2967 (5.1%)
Lib Dem: 28531 (49.1%)
UKIP: 2114 (3.6%)
MAJORITY: 3993 (6.9%)

Sitting MP: Jeremy Browne (LibDem)
Prediction: Narrow Conservative gain

Boundary changes last time increased Browne’s majority from just over 500. However, his personal vote will now disappear as he is standing down. I think it’s possible for the LibDems to hold the seat but I’d given them no more than a 25% chance of doing so.,

4. Wells

2010 Result:
Conservative: 23760 (42.5%)
Labour: 4198 (7.5%)
Lib Dem: 24560 (44%)
BNP: 1004 (1.8%)
Green: 631 (1.1%)
UKIP: 1711 (3.1%)
MAJORITY: 800 (1.4%)

Sitting MP: Tessa Munt (LibDem)
Prediction: Conservative gain

The former seat of David Heathcoat-Amory Tessa Munt won Wells in 2010. She has enjoyed a high media profile and has conducted some good campaigns. The Tories will make every effort to regain this seat and will be devastated if they don’t pull it off.

5. Yeovil

2010 Result:
Conservative: 18807 (32.9%)
Labour: 2991 (5.2%)
Lib Dem: 31843 (55.7%)
BNP: 1162 (2%)
UKIP: 2357 (4.1%)
MAJORITY: 13036 (22.8%)

Sitting MP: David Laws (LibDem)
Prediction: LibDem hold

Surely a dead cert LibDem hold? Laws may lose a few votes because of his expenses scandal, and will suffer because of the LibDem decline in popularity, but I can’t see a 13,000 majority being overturned.

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE

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Final General Election Predictions 20: Cornwall

28 Apr 2015 at 07:34

Back in January I predicted the outcome of the General Election, seat by seat. Since then, I have done more research and altered some of the predictions taking into account various issues including new updated constituency polls by Lord Ashcroft. Over the next ten days I will be revisiting each county and region giving my final predictions. I’d still welcome feedback, even at this late stage.

CORNWALL

Seats: 6
Current Political Makeup: Con 3, LibDem 3
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 6
Final Prediction: Con 5, LibDem 1

1. Camborne & Redruth

2010 Result:
Conservative: 15969 (37.6%)
Labour: 6945 (16.3%)
Lib Dem: 15903 (37.4%)
Green: 581 (1.4%)
UKIP: 2152 (5.1%)
Others: 943 (2.2%)
MAJORITY: 66 (0.2%

Sitting MP: George Eustice (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

A rematch between current MP George Eustice and former LibDem MP Julia Goldsworthy. This could turn out to be a three way marginal if the LibDem vote collapses to Labour and the Tory vote collapses to UKIP. But you have to say if Julia Goldsworthy couldn’t hold this in a good year for the LibDems, can she really win it back in May? I doubt it.

2. North Cornwall

2010 Result:
Conservative: 19531 (41.7%)
Labour: 1971 (4.2%)
Lib Dem: 22512 (48.1%)
UKIP: 2300 (4.9%)
Others: 530 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 2981 (6.4%)

Sitting MP: Dan Rogerson (LibDem)
Prediction: Conservative gain

A seat where the LibDem majority has been on the slide in every election since 1997’s highpoint of more than 13,000. If UKIP hadn’t existed, the Conservatives would have won this seat in 2010. So the key question is whether they will eat further into the Conservative vote in 2015. If so, the LibDems will hang on. Otherwise this is a pretty safe bet for the Tories. UPDATE: Lord Ashcroft shows that UKIP could scupper the Tories here. However, in the latest constituency poll the UKIP vote is being squeezed somewhat, and although the LibDems are one point ahead, a strong ground war should see the Tories home. This one, in reality, though, could go either way.

3. St Austell & Newquay

2010 Result:
Conservative: 18877 (40%)
Labour: 3386 (7.2%)
Lib Dem: 20189 (42.7%)
BNP: 1022 (2.2%)
UKIP: 1757 (3.7%)
Others: 2007 (4.2%)
MAJORITY: 1312 (2.8%)

Sitting MP: Stephen Gilbert (LibDem)
Prediction: Conservative gain

This seat could go either way. Labour are nowhere with only 7% of the vote. If UKIP does well in the South West, the LibDems win here, if they don’t, they won’t.

4. St Ives

2010 Result:
Conservative: 17900 (39%)
Labour: 3751 (8.2%)
Lib Dem: 19619 (42.7%)
Green: 1308 (2.8%)
UKIP: 2560 (5.6%)
Others: 783 (1.7%)
MAJORITY: 1719 (3.7%)

Sitting MP: Andrew George (LibDem)
Prediction: Conservative gain
Updated Prediction: LibDem hold

The Tories got a 10.39% swing last time and took a huge chuck out of Andrew George’s 11,000 majority. This time George will be hoping UKIP’s vote reduces Tory potency. His incumbency and local popularity could see Andrew George home, but I now think the Tories may make it. UPDATE: The latest Lord Ashcroft poll shows Andrew George with a three point lead. The UKIP vote here has fallen to 11%. Andrew George has a strong reputation here. I suspect that might allow him to pull through, unless the Tories can eat further into the UKIP vote.

5. South East Cornwall

2010 Result:
Conservative: 22390 (45.1%)
Labour: 3507 (7.1%)
Lib Dem: 19170 (38.6%)
Green: 826 (1.7%)
UKIP: 3083 (6.2%)
Others: 641 (1.3%)
MAJORITY: 3220 (6.5%)

Sitting MP: Sheryll Murray (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

The LibDems lost this seat last time after holding it for three terms and will be looking to win it back. The only way they can do that is if UKIP bites into the Tory vote in quite a substantial way and the LibDem vote holds up better than most expect. Will be tight but Sheryll Murray should win the day.

6. Truro & Falmouth

2010 Result:
Conservative: 20349 (41.7%)
Labour: 4697 (9.6%)
Lib Dem: 19914 (40.8%)
Green: 858 (1.8%)
UKIP: 1911 (3.9%)
Others: 1039 (2.1%)
MAJORITY: 435 (0.9%)

Sitting MP: Sarah Newton (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Too tight to call really but if the trend of LibDem votes going back to Labour continues, Sarah Newton should hold on.

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE

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