General Election Predictions

General Election Predictions 37: Wales - Clwyd

7 Jan 2015 at 19:45

This is the thirty-seventh in a series of blogposts (scroll to the bottom of the article for the others) which will seek to predict the outcome of every seat in the run-up to the next general election. The notion of a universal swing in May 2015 can be totally discounted. Each seat has to be treated on its merits. Feel free to add your comments and tell me where you think I have got things wrong. I will return to update each county analysis when and if I get new information.

Clwyd

Seats: 7
Current Political Makeup: Con 2, Lab 5
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 2, Lab 5

1. Aberconwy

2010 Result:
Conservative: 10734 (35.8%)
Labour: 7336 (24.5%)
Lib Dem: 5786 (19.3%)
Plaid Cymru: 5341 (17.8%)
UKIP: 632 (2.1%)
Christian: 137 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 3398 (11.3%)

Sitting MP: Guto Bebb (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

As long as the opposition remains fairly evenly split, Guto Bebb can feel confident of winning for a second time. But if Labour take a lot of votes from the LibDems, then they could take this seat.

2. Alyn & Deeside

2010 Result:
Conservative: 12885 (32.3%)
Labour: 15804 (39.6%)
Lib Dem: 7308 (18.3%)
Plaid Cymru: 1549 (3.9%)
BNP: 1368 (3.4%)
UKIP: 1009 (2.5%)
MAJORITY: 2919 (7.3%)

Sitting MP: Mark Tami (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Not a safe seat but there are only two realistic outcomes here. A Labour hold or a Tory gain. Yes, you read that right. This is a seat where UKIP are apparently leeching votes off Labour. This could let the Tories in. Mark Tami will know this so expect a big Labour campaign here.

3. Clwyd South

2010 Result:
Conservative: 10477 (30.2%)
Labour: 13311 (38.4%)
Lib Dem: 5965 (17.2%)
Plaid Cymru: 3009 (8.7%)
BNP: 1100 (3.2%)
UKIP: 819 (2.4%)
MAJORITY: 2834 (8.2%)

Sitting MP: Susan Elan Jones (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

The Tories had hopes here last time around, but they didn’t quite manage it. They won’t this time either. Susan Elan Jones is looking at an increased majoirty.

4. Clwyd West

2010 Result:
Conservative: 15833 (41.5%)
Labour: 9414 (24.7%)
Lib Dem: 5801 (15.2%)
Plaid Cymru: 5864 (15.4%)
UKIP: 864 (2.3%)
Christian: 239 (0.6%)
Independent: 96 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 6419 (16.8%)

Sitting MP: David Jones (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

A Labour win is not out of the question but in twi terms Jones has built up a good majority. However, this time he is faced by the former Labour MP for the area, Gareth Thomas, who wasn’t allowed to stand in 2010 because of an all-women shortlist. He will put up a tough fight, but Jones should triumph.

5. Delyn

2010 Result:
Conservative: 12811 (34.6%)
Labour: 15083 (40.8%)
Lib Dem: 5747 (15.5%)
Plaid Cymru: 1844 (5%)
BNP: 844 (2.3%)
UKIP: 655 (1.8%)
MAJORITY: 2272 (6.1%)

Sitting MP: David Hanson (Lab)
Prediction Labour hold

A straight Labour/Tory fight here, one which David Hanson is most likely to win again. However, there is little room for complacency as his majority has reduced from more than 11,000 to 2272. UKIP topped the poll here in the Euros and David Hanson will fear that they take more votes off him than the Tories.

6. Vale of Clwyd

2010 Result:
Conservative: 12508 (35.2%)
Labour: 15017 (42.3%)
Lib Dem: 4472 (12.6%)
Plaid Cymru: 2068 (5.8%)
BNP: 827 (2.3%)
UKIP: 515 (1.4%)
Others: 127 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 2509 (7.1%

Sitting MP: Chris Ruane (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Very similar to Clwyd West in that it’s a straight Labour/Tory fight with an ever decreasing Labour majority. Another seat where UKIP expect to do well and could deprive Labour of a majority if they eat into the working class vote. This is one of four of five North Wales Labour marginals where this could happen.

7. Wrexham

2010 Result:
Conservative: 8375 (25.4%)
Labour: 12161 (36.9%)
Lib Dem: 8503 (25.8%)
Plaid Cymru: 2029 (6.2%)
BNP: 1134 (3.4%)
UKIP: 774 (2.3%)
MAJORITY: 3658 (11.1%)

Sitting MP: Ian Lucas (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

The Conservatives have always scratched their heads and wondered why they haven’t ever won Wrexham in recent times. UKIP finished first in the Euro elections here and they have opened up a campaign HQ in Wrexham high street. They got very few votes in 2010 in Wrexham but pundits are predicting a high vote this time. But who will they take votes from? The answer is probably all the parties. Ian Lucas will be a nervous man on election night but I can’t really predict anything other than a Labour hold as it stands.

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE

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General Election Predictions

General Election Predictions 36: Wales - Gwent

7 Jan 2015 at 14:00

This is the thirty-sixth a series of blogposts (scroll to the bottom of the article for the others) which will seek to predict the outcome of every seat in the run-up to the next general election. The notion of a universal swing in May 2015 can be totally discounted. Each seat has to be treated on its merits. Feel free to add your comments and tell me where you think I have got things wrong. I will return to update each county analysis when and if I get new information.

Gwent

Seats: 8
Current Political Makeup: Con 1, Lab 7
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 1, Lab 7

1. Blaenau Gwent

2010 Result:
Conservative: 2265 (7%)
Labour: 16974 (52.4%)
Lib Dem: 3285 (10.1%)
Plaid Cymru: 1333 (4.1%)
BNP: 1211 (3.7%)
UKIP: 488 (1.5%)
Peoples Voice: 6458 (19.9%)
Others: 381 (1.2%)
MAJORITY: 10516 (32.5%)

Sitting MP: Nick Smith (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

2. Caerphilly

2010 Result:
Conservative: 6622 (17.1%)
Labour: 17377 (44.9%)
Lib Dem: 5688 (14.7%)
Plaid Cymru: 6460 (16.7%)
BNP: 1635 (4.2%)
UKIP: 910 (2.4%)
MAJORITY: 10755 (27.8%)

Sitting MP: Wayne David (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

3. Islwyn

2010 Result:
Conservative: 4854 (14%)
Labour: 17069 (49.2%)
Lib Dem: 3597 (10.4%)
Plaid Cymru: 4518 (13%)
BNP: 1320 (3.8%)
UKIP: 930 (2.7%)
Independent: 1495 (4.3%)
Others: 901 (2.6%)
MAJORITY: 12215 (35.2%)

Sitting MP: Chris Evans (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

4. Merthyr Tydfil & Rhymney

2010 Result:
Conservative: 2412 (7.5%)
Labour: 14007 (43.7%)
Lib Dem: 9951 (31%)
Plaid Cymru: 1621 (5.1%)
BNP: 1173 (3.7%)
UKIP: 872 (2.7%)
Independent: 1845 (5.8%)
Others: 195 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 4056 (12.6%)

Sitting MP: Dai Havard (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Relatively safe seat. Having said that, UKIP did astonishingly well in the Euro elections here. If they repeated that in the General Election and took a lot of votes from Labour, the seat could be vulnerable to the Liberal Democrats. But I’ll believe that when I see it.

5. Monmouth

2010 Result:
Conservative: 22466 (48.3%)
Labour: 12041 (25.9%)
Lib Dem: 9026 (19.4%)
Plaid Cymru: 1273 (2.7%)
Green: 587 (1.3%)
UKIP: 1126 (2.4%)
MAJORITY: 10425 (22.4%)

Sitting MP: David T C Davies (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Safe seat.

6. Newport East

2010 Result:
Conservative: 7918 (23%)
Labour: 12744 (37%)
Lib Dem: 11094 (32.2%)
Plaid Cymru: 724 (2.1%)
BNP: 1168 (3.4%)
UKIP: 677 (2%)
Others: 123 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 1650 (4.8%)

Sitting MP: Jessica Morden (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

A marginal, but with the LibDems in second place it’s almost certain Jessica Morden will increase her majority.

7. Newport West

2010 Result:
Conservative: 12845 (32.3%)
Labour: 16389 (41.3%)
Lib Dem: 6587 (16.6%)
Plaid Cymru: 1122 (2.8%)
BNP: 1183 (3%)
Green: 450 (1.1%)
UKIP: 1144 (2.9%)
MAJORITY: 3544 (8.9%)

Sitting MP: Paul Flynn (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

This seat has always looked marginal and the Tories had high hopes in 2010. They don’t in 2015.

8. Torfaen

2010 Result:
Conservative: 7541 (20%)
Labour: 16847 (44.8%)
Lib Dem: 6264 (16.6%)
Plaid Cymru: 2005 (5.3%)
BNP: 1657 (4.4%)
Green: 438 (1.2%)
UKIP: 862 (2.3%)
Independent: 1419 (3.8%)
Others: 607 (1.6%)
MAJORITY: 9306 (24.7%)

Sitting MP: Paul Murphy (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE

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General Election Predictions

General Election Predictions 35: Wales - Gwynedd & Powys

6 Jan 2015 at 21:34

This is the thirty-fifth a series of blogposts (scroll to the bottom of the article for the others) – and the first for Wales – which will seek to predict the outcome of every seat in the run-up to the next general election. The notion of a universal swing in May 2015 can be totally discounted. Each seat has to be treated on its merits. Feel free to add your comments and tell me where you think I have got things wrong. I will return to update each county analysis when and if I get new information.

Gwynedd

Seats: 3
Current Political Makeup: Lab 1, Plaid Cymru 2
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Lab 1, Plaid Cymru 2

1. Arfon

2010 Result:
Conservative: 4416 (16.9%)
Labour: 7928 (30.4%)
Lib Dem: 3666 (14.1%)
Plaid Cymru: 9383 (36%)
UKIP: 685 (2.6%)
MAJORITY: 1455 (5.6%)

Sitting MP: Hywel Williams (PC)
Prediction: Plaid Cymru hold

This has been a Plaid seat for yonks, but Labour isn’t far behind, albeit on a very small electorate. The Plaid organisation is strong here. It’s not inconceivable that Labour could win but I doubt it.

2. Dwyfor Meironnydd

2010 Result:
Conservative: 6447 (22.3%)
Labour: 4021 (13.9%)
Lib Dem: 3538 (12.2%)
Plaid Cymru: 12814 (44.3%)
UKIP: 776 (2.7%)
Independent: 1310 (4.5%)
MAJORITY: 6367 (22%)

Sitting MP: Elfyn Llwyd (PC)
Prediction: Plaid Cymru hold

Safe seat.

3. Ynys Mon

2010 Result:
Conservative: 7744 (22.5%)
Labour: 11490 (33.4%)
Lib Dem: 2592 (7.5%)
Plaid Cymru: 9029 (26.2%)
UKIP: 1201 (3.5%)
Christian: 163 (0.5%)
Independent: 2225 (6.5%)
MAJORITY: 2461 (7.1%)

Sitting MP: Albert Owen (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

This seat has been held by the Tories, Labour and Plaid in the last thirty years. In 1992 and 1997 it went Plaid but since then the Labour majority has been increasing. I suspect it will again. However, UKIP is expected to do very well here. No one knows where their votes may come from, so anything is possible.

Powys

Seats: 2
Current Political Makeup: Con 1, LibDem 1
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 1, LibDem 1

1. Brecon & Radnorshire

2010 Result:
Conservative: 14182 (36.5%)
Labour: 4096 (10.5%)
Lib Dem: 17929 (46.2%)
Plaid Cymru: 989 (2.5%)
Green: 341 (0.9%)
UKIP: 876 (2.3%)
Christian: 222 (0.6%)
Others: 210 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 3747 (9.6%)

Sitting MP: Roger Williams
Prediction: LibDem hold
A Conservative gain here is possible but not definite. One of the tightest results in 2015, I’d think. The LibDems must be hoping that Roger Williams will definitely stand again, because if they hold onto this seat it will be in large part down to his personal vote. A few months ago I tipped this seat to go blue. I’m revising that now to a very narrow LibDem win. The Ashcroft polls show a definite loss to the Tories when people are asked who they will vote for in the election. But when they are asked to think about their own particular constituency the situation is dramatically reversed and the LibDems are ahead by 4%.

2. Montgomeryshire

2010 Result:
Conservative: 13976 (41.3%)
Labour: 2407 (7.1%)
Lib Dem: 12792 (37.8%)
Plaid Cymru: 2802 (8.3%)
UKIP: 1128 (3.3%)
Independent: 324 (1%)
Others: 384 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 1184 (3.5%)

Sitting MP: Glyn Davies (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Glyn Davies won this seat in part because Lembit Opik outstayed his welcome. He’s proved to be quite popular and although the LibDems are convinced they can retake this seat I suspect they’ll be badly disappointed.

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE

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General Election Predictions

General Election Predictions 34: London South

6 Jan 2015 at 17:00

This is the thirty-fourth in a series of blogposts (scroll to the bottom of the article for the others) which will seek to predict the outcome of every seat in the run-up to the next general election. The notion of a universal swing in May 2015 can be totally discounted. Each seat has to be treated on its merits. Feel free to add your comments and tell me where you think I have got things wrong. I will return to update each county analysis when and if I get new information.

Seats: 9
Current Political Makeup: Con 2, Lab 6, LibDem 1
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 3, Labour 6

Camberwell & Peckham

2010 Result:
Conservative: 6080 (13%)
Labour: 27619 (59.2%)
Lib Dem: 10432 (22.4%)
Green: 1361 (2.9%)
English Dem: 435 (0.9%)
Independent: 93 (0.2%)
Others: 639 (1.4%)
MAJORITY: 17187 (36.8%)

Sitting MP: Harriet Harman (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat

Carshalton & Wallington

2010 Result:
Conservative: 16920 (36.8%)
Labour: 4015 (8.7%)
Lib Dem: 22180 (48.3%)
BNP: 1100 (2.4%)
Green: 355 (0.8%)
UKIP: 1348 (2.9%)
MAJORITY: 5260 (11.5%)

Sitting MP: Tom Brake (LibDem)
Prediction: Conservative gain

Somewhat charismatically challenged Brake is nevertheless a very good constituency MP and this could seem him through, but the Labour vote here is bound to recover. However, I’d say this was a 50/50 prediction and could easily go the other way. This would be the sixth time Brake has fought the seat and that counts for a lot.

Croydon Central

2010 Result:
Conservative: 19657 (39.4%)
Labour: 16688 (33.6%)
Lib Dem: 6553 (13.2%)
BNP: 1448 (2.9%)
Green: 581 (1.2%)
UKIP: 997 (2%)
Christian: 264 (0.5%)
Independent: 3239 (6.5%)
Others: 330 (0.7%)
MAJORITY: 2879 (5.8%)

Sitting MP: Gavin Barwell (Con)
Prediction: Narrow Conservative hold

Difficult one to call. The result of the last election was rather skewed by the intervention of Andrew Pelling, the former Tory candidate who stood as an independent. Many of those will have been (I assume) former Conservative voters). Gavin Barwell needs to get most of those back if he is to retain this seat. He can’t just count on his reputation as a hard working constituency MP.

Croydon North

2010 Result:
Conservative: 12466 (24.1%)
Labour: 28949 (56%)
Lib Dem: 7226 (14%)
Green: 1017 (2%)
UKIP: 891 (1.7%)
Respect: 272 (0.5%)
Christian: 586 (1.1%)
Independent: 111 (0.2%)
Others: 160 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 16481 (31.9%)

BY-ELECTION 2012
Steve Reed (Labour) 15898 64.7% (8.7%)
Andrew Stranack (Conservative) 4137 16.8% (-7.3%)
Winston McKenzie (UKIP) 1400 5.7% (
4%)
Marisha Ray (Liberal Democrat) 860 3.5% (-10.5%)
Shasha Khan (Green) 855 3.5% (1.5%)
Lee Jasper (Respect) 707 2.9% (
2.4%)
Stephen Hammond (Christian Peoples) 192 0.8% (n/a)
Richard Edmonds (National Front) 161 0.7% (n/a)
Ben Stevenson (Communist) 119 0.5% (+0.2%)
John Cartwright (Loony) 110 0.4% (n/a)
Simon Lane (911 was an inside job) 66 0.3% (n/a)
Robin Smith (Young Peoples) 63 0.3% (n/a)
MAJORITY 11755 47.9%
Turnout 26.5% (-34.1%)

Sitting MP: Steve Reed (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

Croydon South

2010 Result:
Conservative: 28684 (50.9%)
Labour: 11287 (20%)
Lib Dem: 12866 (22.8%)
Green: 981 (1.7%)
UKIP: 2504 (4.4%)
MAJORITY: 15818 (28.1%)

Sitting MP: Richard Ottaway (Con)
Prediction: Conservatuve hold

Seafe seat. Richard Ottaway is standing down. Chris Philp replaces him.

Dulwich & West Norwood

2010 Result:
Conservative: 10684 (22.2%)
Labour: 22461 (46.6%)
Lib Dem: 13096 (27.2%)
Green: 1266 (2.6%)
UKIP: 707 (1.5%)
MAJORITY: 9365 (19.4%)

Sitting MP: Dame Tessa Jowell (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat. Tessa Jowell is standing down and will be replaced by Helen Hayes.

Streatham

2010 Result:
Conservative: 8578 (18.3%)
Labour: 20037 (42.8%)
Lib Dem: 16778 (35.8%)
Green: 861 (1.8%)
English Dem: 229 (0.5%)
Christian: 237 (0.5%)
Others: 117 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 3259 (7%)

Sitting MP: Chuka Umunna (Lab)
Prediction: Increased Labour majority

The LibDems did well here last time, but their vote is likely to diminish in May and much of it may well go to Chuka Umunna.

Tooting

2010 Result:
Conservative: 19514 (38.5%)
Labour: 22038 (43.5%)
Lib Dem: 7509 (14.8%)
Green: 609 (1.2%)
UKIP: 624 (1.2%)
Christian: 171 (0.3%)
Independent: 190 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 2524 (5%)

Sitting MP: Sadiq Khan (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

A narrow majority and it’s a seat the Tories were very confident of winning in 2010 but didn’t. Barring a major surprise, they won’t this time either.

Vauxhall

2010 Result:
Conservative: 9301 (21.5%)
Labour: 21498 (49.8%)
Lib Dem: 10847 (25.1%)
Green: 708 (1.6%)
English Dem: 289 (0.7%)
Christian: 200 (0.5%)
Others: 348 (0.8%)
MAJORITY: 10651 (24.7%)

Sitting MP: Kate Hoey (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE

OUT NOW! The Politicos Guide to the General Election (by Iain Dale, Greg Callus, Robert Waller & Daniel Hamilton) £15.99 from Politicos.co.uk or £16.58 from Amazon. Also available as an eBook from Politicos.co.uk at £9.99 and Amazon at £10.19

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General Election Predictions

General Election Predictions 33: London South East

6 Jan 2015 at 09:00

This is the thirty-third in a series of blogposts (scroll to the bottom of the article for the others) which will seek to predict the outcome of every seat in the run-up to the next general election. The notion of a universal swing in May 2015 can be totally discounted. Each seat has to be treated on its merits. Feel free to add your comments and tell me where you think I have got things wrong. I will return to update each county analysis when and if I get new information.

Seats: 12
Current Political Makeup: Con 5, Lab 6, LibDem 1
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 5 , Lab 6, LibDem 1

Beckenham

2010 Result:
Conservative: 27597 (57.9%)
Labour: 6893 (14.5%)
Lib Dem: 9813 (20.6%)
BNP: 1001 (2.1%)
Green: 608 (1.3%)
UKIP: 1551 (3.3%)
English Dem: 223 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 17784 (37.3%)

Sitting MP: Col Bob Stewart (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Safe seat.

Bermondsey & Old Southwark

2010 Result:
Conservative: 7638 (17.1%)
Labour: 13060 (29.2%)
Lib Dem: 21590 (48.4%)
BNP: 1370 (3.1%)
Green: 718 (1.6%)
Independent: 155 (0.3%)
Others: 120 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 8530 (19.1%)

Sitting MP: Simon Hughes (LibDem)
Prediction: LibDem hold

I had thought this would be a dead cert hold for Simon Hughes but increasingly I am wondering if I am right. Labour seem very confident they can take this. However, if you look at the electoral hurdles Labour would have to overcome to win this, I think they’re going to have a tough task. They might also be hindered by a number of coalition-friendly Tories lending Simon Hughes their votes. Or they might not :)

Bexleyheath & Crayford

2010 Result:
Conservative: 21794 (50.5%)
Labour: 11450 (26.5%)
Lib Dem: 5502 (12.7%)
BNP: 2042 (4.7%)
Green: 371 (0.9%)
UKIP: 1557 (3.6%)
English Dem: 466 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 10344 (24%)

Sitting MP: David Evennett (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Safe seat.

Bromley & Chislehurst

2010 Result:
Conservative: 23569 (53.5%)
Labour: 7295 (16.6%)
Lib Dem: 9669 (22%)
BNP: 1070 (2.4%)
Green: 607 (1.4%)
UKIP: 1451 (3.3%)
English Dem: 376 (0.9%)
MAJORITY: 13900 (31.6%)

Sitting MP: Bob Neill (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Safe seat

Eltham

2010 Result:
Conservative: 15753 (37.5%)
Labour: 17416 (41.5%)
Lib Dem: 5299 (12.6%)
BNP: 1745 (4.2%)
Green: 419 (1%)
UKIP: 1011 (2.4%)
English Dem: 217 (0.5%)
Independent: 104 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 1663 (4%)

Sitting MP: Clive Efford (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Highly marginal seat which the Tories expected to take in 2010. They’re unlikely to do so in 2015 but I suppose, depending on demographic changes, it’s not beyond the bounds of possibility. Assuming the LibDem vote crumbles to Labour that possibility will die.

Erith & Thamesmead

2010 Result:
Conservative: 13365 (31.5%)
Labour: 19068 (44.9%)
Lib Dem: 5116 (12%)
BNP: 2184 (5.1%)
Green: 322 (0.8%)
UKIP: 1139 (2.7%)
English Dem: 465 (1.1%)
Others: 817 (1.9%)
MAJORITY: 5703 (13.4%)

Sitting MP: Teresa Pearce (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

It’s difficult to see any other result here than a Labour hold.

Greenwich & Woolwich

2010 Result:
Conservative: 10109 (24.5%)
Labour: 20262 (49.2%)
Lib Dem: 7498 (18.2%)
BNP: 1151 (2.8%)
Green: 1054 (2.6%)
English Dem: 339 (0.8%)
Christian: 443 (1.1%)
TUSC: 267 (0.6%)
Independent: 65 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 10153 (24.7%

Sitting MP: Nick Raynsford (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe Labour seat. Raynsford is standing down.

Lewisham Deptford

2010 Result:
Conservative: 5551 (13.5%)
Labour: 22132 (53.7%)
Lib Dem: 9633 (23.4%)
Green: 2772 (6.7%)
Others: 1132 (2.7%)
MAJORITY: 12499 (30.3%)

Sitting MP: Joan Ruddock (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe Labour seat for Vicky Foxcroft to inherit. Joan Ruddock is standing down.

Lewisham East

2010 Result:
Conservative: 9850 (23.6%)
Labour: 17966 (43.1%)
Lib Dem: 11750 (28.2%)
Green: 624 (1.5%)
UKIP: 771 (1.8%)
English Dem: 426 (1%)
Others: 332 (0.8%)
MAJORITY: 6216 (14.9%)

Sitting MP: Heidi Alexander (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

The Tories will be looking to overtake the LibDems in a seat they once held in the 1980s.

Lewisham West & Penge

2010 Result:
Conservative: 11489 (25.5%)
Labour: 18501 (41.1%)
Lib Dem: 12673 (28.1%)
Green: 931 (2.1%)
UKIP: 1117 (2.5%)
Others: 317 (0.7%)
MAJORITY: 5828 (12.9%)

Sitting MP: Jim Dowd (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

You wouldn’t class this as a safe seat, but any other result that a Labour hold would be a big surprise. It’s the sort of seat the Tories could only win in a landslide.

Old Bexley & Sidcup

2010 Result:
Conservative: 24625 (54.1%)
Labour: 8768 (19.3%)
Lib Dem: 6996 (15.4%)
BNP: 2132 (4.7%)
Green: 371 (0.8%)
UKIP: 1532 (3.4%)
English Dem: 520 (1.1%)
Others: 548 (1.2%)
MAJORITY: 15857 (34.9%)

Sitting MP: James Brokenshire (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Safe seat.

Orpington

2010 Result:
Conservative: 29200 (59.7%)
Labour: 4400 (9%)
Lib Dem: 12000 (24.5%)
BNP: 1241 (2.5%)
Green: 511 (1%)
UKIP: 1360 (2.8%)
English Dem: 199 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 17200 (35.2%)

Sitting MP: Jo Johnson (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Safe seat

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE

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General Election Predictions

General Election Predictions 32: London South West

5 Jan 2015 at 15:50

This is the thirty-second in a series of blogposts (scroll to the bottom of the article for the others) which will seek to predict the outcome of every seat in the run-up to the next general election. The notion of a universal swing in May 2015 can be totally discounted. Each seat has to be treated on its merits. Feel free to add your comments and tell me where you think I have got things wrong. I will return to update each county analysis when and if I get new information.

Seats: 8
Current Political Makeup: Con 4, Lab 1, LibDem 3
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 5, Lab 1, LibDem 2

Battersea

2010 Result:
Conservative: 23103 (47.3%)
Labour: 17126 (35.1%)
Lib Dem: 7176 (14.7%)
Green: 559 (1.1%)
UKIP: 505 (1%)
Independent: 155 (0.3%)
Others: 168 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 5977 (12.2%)

Sitting MP: Jane Ellison (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Not a safe Tory seat by any stretch of the imagination. Despite ongoing gentrification it’s got pockets of real poverty. If Labour fails to get a majority, this seat stays Tory.

Kingston & Surbiton

2010 Result:
Conservative: 20868 (36.5%)
Labour: 5337 (9.3%)
Lib Dem: 28428 (49.8%)
Green: 555 (1%)
UKIP: 1450 (2.5%)
Others: 473 (0.8%)
MAJORITY: 7560 (13.2%)

Sitting MP: Ed Davey (LibDem)
Prediction: LibDem hold

Ed Davey won this seat in 1997 with a wafer thin majority of 56, which rose to more than 15,000 in 2001. But since then the Conservative vote has been on the rise. Davey has only managed to win with such handsome majorities because he has squeezed the Labour vote from 23% down to 9%. If that trend reverses, the Conservatives could squeak it, but it’s highly unlikely. Ed Davey ought to be safe and sound here, and I think he will be. I’m not sure he does though, given that he appears to only spend 2 days a week at the Department of Energy & Climate Change, if Guido Fawkes is to be believed. The rest of his time is spent campaigning in his constituency.

Mitcham & Morden

2010 Result:
Conservative: 11056 (25.2%)
Labour: 24722 (56.4%)
Lib Dem: 5202 (11.9%)
BNP: 1386 (3.2%)
Green: 381 (0.9%)
UKIP: 857 (2%)
Independent: 155 (0.4%)
Others: 38 (0.1%)
MAJORITY: 13666 (31.2%)

Sitting MP: Siobhan McDonough (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

Putney

2010 Result:
Conservative: 21223 (52%)
Labour: 11170 (27.4%)
Lib Dem: 6907 (16.9%)
BNP: 459 (1.1%)
Green: 591 (1.4%)
UKIP: 435 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 10053 (24.6%)

Sitting MP: Justine Greening (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Safe seat.

Richmond Park

2010 Result:
Conservative: 29461 (49.7%)
Labour: 2979 (5%)
Lib Dem: 25370 (42.8%)
Green: 572 (1%)
UKIP: 669 (1.1%)
Independent: 84 (0.1%)
Others: 133 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 4091 (6.9%)

Sitting MP: Zac Goldsmith (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Zac Goldsmith won this sear by a bigger majority than anyone expected. It’s difficult to see him being shifted in May.

Sutton & Cheam

2010 Result:
Conservative: 20548 (42.4%)
Labour: 3376 (7%)
Lib Dem: 22156 (45.7%)
BNP: 1014 (2.1%)
Green: 246 (0.5%)
UKIP: 950 (2%)
English Dem: 106 (0.2%)
Others: 112 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 1608 (3.3%)

Sitting MP: Paul Burstow (LibDem)
Prediction: Narrow Conservative gain

The Labour vote has halved to 7.7% since 1997 and will inevitably rise in 2015. Paul Burstow is standing again and incumbency could play a vital role if he is to retain his seat, but if the Tory vote holds up, he may have a problem.

Twickenham

2010 Result:
Conservative: 20343 (34.1%)
Labour: 4583 (7.7%)
Lib Dem: 32483 (54.4%)
BNP: 654 (1.1%)
Green: 674 (1.1%)
UKIP: 868 (1.5%)
Others: 116 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 12140 (20.3%)

Sitting MP: Vince Cable (LibDem)
Prediction: LibDem hold

I have changed this seat from a dead cert LibDem Hold to probable. It’s known that Vince Cable has become very nervous about his prospects and the Tories have become quite active here. Much is dependent on whether Labour will siphon off former LibDem votes, although these could be cancelled out by the UKIP votes lost by the Tories.

Wimbledon

2010 Result:
Conservative: 23257 (49.1%)
Labour: 10550 (22.3%)
Lib Dem: 11849 (25%)
Green: 590 (1.2%)
UKIP: 914 (1.9%)
Christian: 235 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 11408 (24.1%)

Sitting MP: Stephen Hammond (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Safe seat.

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE

OUT NOW! The Politicos Guide to the General Election (by Iain Dale, Greg Callus, Robert Waller & Daniel Hamilton) £15.99 from Politicos.co.uk or £16.58 from Amazon. Also available as an eBook from Politicos.co.uk at £9.99 and Amazon at £10.19

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General Election Predictions

General Election Predictions 31: London Central

5 Jan 2015 at 09:00

This is the thirty-first in a series of blogposts (scroll to the bottom of the article for the others) which will seek to predict the outcome of every seat in the run-up to the next general election. The notion of a universal swing in May 2015 can be totally discounted. Each seat has to be treated on its merits. Feel free to add your comments and tell me where you think I have got things wrong. I will return to update each county analysis when and if I get new information.

Seats: 6
Current Political Makeup: Con 2, Lab 4
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 2, Lab 4

Cities of London & Westminster

2010 Result:
Conservative: 19264 (52.2%)
Labour: 8188 (22.2%)
Lib Dem: 7574 (20.5%)
Green: 778 (2.1%)
UKIP: 664 (1.8%)
English Dem: 191 (0.5%)
Independent: 98 (0.3%)
Others: 174 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 11076 (30%)

Sitting MP: Mark Field (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Safe seat.

Holborn & St Pancras

2010 Result:
Conservative: 11134 (20.4%)
Labour: 25198 (46.1%)
Lib Dem: 15256 (27.9%)
BNP: 779 (1.4%)
Green: 1480 (2.7%)
UKIP: 587 (1.1%)
English Dem: 75 (0.1%)
Independent: 96 (0.2%)
Others: 44 (0.1%)
MAJORITY: 9942 (18.2%)

Sitting MP: Frank Dobson (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

A nice majority for Sir Keir Starmer to inherit.

Islington South & Finsbury

2010 Result:
Conservative: 8449 (19.4%)
Labour: 18407 (42.3%)
Lib Dem: 14838 (34.1%)
Green: 710 (1.6%)
UKIP: 701 (1.6%)
English Dem: 301 (0.7%)
Others: 149 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 3569 (8.2%)

Sitting MP: Emily Thornbury (Lab)
Prediction: Increased Labour majority

Difficult to see anything other than a doubling of Emily Thornberry’s majority here.

Kensington

2010 Result:
Conservative: 17595 (50.1%)
Labour: 8979 (25.5%)
Lib Dem: 6872 (19.6%)
Green: 753 (2.1%)
UKIP: 754 (2.1%)
Others: 197 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 8616 (24.5%)

Sitting MP: Sir Malcolm Rifkind (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Safe seat.

Poplar & Limehouse

2010 Result:
Conservative: 12649 (27.1%)
Labour: 18679 (40%)
Lib Dem: 5209 (11.2%)
Green: 449 (1%)
UKIP: 565 (1.2%)
Respect: 8160 (17.5%)
English Dem: 470 (1%)
Independent: 293 (0.6%)
Others: 226 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 6030 (12.9%)

Sitting MP: Jim Fitzpatrick (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat, unless Lutfar Rahman puts up a Tower Hamlets First candidate, in which case Tory ears may prick up.

Westminster North

2010 Result:
Conservative: 15251 (38.5%)
Labour: 17377 (43.9%)
Lib Dem: 5513 (13.9%)
BNP: 334 (0.8%)
Green: 478 (1.2%)
UKIP: 315 (0.8%)
English Dem: 99 (0.3%)
Christian: 98 (0.2%)
Independent: 101 (0.3%)
Others: 32 (0.1%)
MAJORITY: 2126 (5.4%)

Sitting MP: Karen Buck (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

No problems for Karen Buck here. Her majority should go up by a couple of thousand at the very least.

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE

OUT NOW! The Politicos Guide to the General Election (by Iain Dale, Greg Callus, Robert Waller & Daniel Hamilton) £15.99 from Politicos.co.uk or £16.58 from Amazon. Also available as an eBook from Politicos.co.uk at £9.99 and Amazon at £10.19

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BBC Radio Norfolk: Iain appears on Treasure Quest

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General Election Predictions

General Election Predictions 30: London West

4 Jan 2015 at 18:00

This is the thirtieth in a series of blogposts (scroll to the bottom of the article for the others) which will seek to predict the outcome of every seat in the run-up to the next general election. The notion of a universal swing in May 2015 can be totally discounted. Each seat has to be treated on its merits. Feel free to add your comments and tell me where you think I have got things wrong. I will return to update each county analysis when and if I get new information.

Seats: 9
Current Political Makeup: Con 4, Lab 5
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 2, Lab 7

Brentford & Isleworth

2010 Result:
Conservative: 20022 (37.2%)
Labour: 18064 (33.6%)
Lib Dem: 12718 (23.7%)
BNP: 704 (1.3%)
Green: 787 (1.5%)
UKIP: 863 (1.6%)
English Dem: 230 (0.4%)
Christian: 210 (0.4%)
Independent: 68 (0.1%)
Others: 99 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 1958 (3.6%)

Sitting MP: Mary Macleod (Con)
Prediction: Labour gain

Mary Macleod has had a relatively high profile as a backbencher but that won’t save her here. What could save her is the gradual gentrification of the constituency, although the fragmenting of the LibDem vote and where it goes is more likely to determine Macleod’s fate.

Chelsea & Fulham

2010 Result:
Conservative: 24093 (60.5%)
Labour: 7371 (18.5%)
Lib Dem: 6473 (16.2%)
BNP: 388 (1%)
Green: 671 (1.7%)
UKIP: 478 (1.2%)
English Dem: 169 (0.4%)
Others: 213 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 16722 (42%)

Sitting MP: Greg Hands (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Safe seat.

Ealing Central & Acton

2010 Result:
Conservative: 17944 (38%)
Labour: 14228 (30.1%)
Lib Dem: 13041 (27.6%)
Green: 737 (1.6%)
UKIP: 765 (1.6%)
Christian: 295 (0.6%)
Others: 190 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 3716 (7.9%)

Sitting MP: Angie Bray (Con)
Prediction: Labour gain

Again, the LibDem vote will determine whether Labour can take this marginal seat from Angie Bray. The Labour vote has halved here since 1997 – a far steeper rate of decline than in Brentford & Isleworth. This lends weight to the gentrifcation argument which now seems to be affecting outer boroughs like Ealing. A similar effect can be seen in parts of North East and East London.

Ealing North

2010 Result:
Conservative: 14722 (30.9%)
Labour: 24023 (50.4%)
Lib Dem: 6283 (13.2%)
BNP: 1045 (2.2%)
Green: 505 (1.1%)
UKIP: 685 (1.4%)
Christian: 415 (0.9%)
MAJORITY: 9301 (19.5%)

Sitting MP: Stephen Pound
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

Ealing Southall

2010 Result:
Conservative: 12733 (29.8%)
Labour: 22024 (51.5%)
Lib Dem: 6383 (14.9%)
Green: 705 (1.6%)
English Dem: 408 (1%)
Christian: 503 (1.2%)
MAJORITY: 9291 (21.7%)

Sitting MP: Virendra Sharma (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

Feltham & Heston

2010 Result:
Conservative: 16516 (34%)
Labour: 21174 (43.6%)
Lib Dem: 6679 (13.8%)
BNP: 1714 (3.5%)
Green: 530 (1.1%)
UKIP: 992 (2%)
Independent: 505 (1%)
Others: 426 (0.9%)
MAJORITY: 4658 (9.6%)

BY-ELECTION 2011
Seema Malhotra (Labour) 12639 54.4% (10.8%)
Mark Bowen (Conservative) 6436 27.7% (-6.3%)
Roger Crouch (Liberal Democrat) 1364 5.9% (-7.8%)
Andrew Charalambous (UKIP) 1276 5.5% (
3.5%)
Dave Furness (BNP) 540 2.3% (-1.2%)
Daniel Goldsmith (Green) 426 1.8% (0.7%)
Roger Cooper (English Democrats) 322 1.4% (n/a)
George Hallam (People Before Profit) 128 0.6% (n/a)
David Bishop (Buss Pass Elvis) 93 0.4% (n/a)
MAJORITY 6203 26.7% (
17.1%)
Turnout 28.8% (-31.1%)

Sitting MP: Seema Malhotra (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

This was thought to be vulnerable to the Tories at the last election but the then MP Alan Keen held on well. The 2011 by-election showed that they were never really in the game here.

Hammersmith

2010 Result:
Conservative: 17261 (36.4%)
Labour: 20810 (43.9%)
Lib Dem: 7567 (15.9%)
BNP: 432 (0.9%)
Green: 696 (1.5%)
UKIP: 551 (1.2%)
Independent: 135 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 3549 (7.5%)

Sitting MP: Andy Slaughter (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Widely tipped to fall to the Tories in 2010, Labour not only held on, but got a good majority. Andy Slaughter is safe here.

Hayes & Harlington

2010 Result:
Conservative: 12553 (29.4%)
Labour: 23377 (54.8%)
Lib Dem: 3726 (8.7%)
BNP: 1520 (3.6%)
Green: 348 (0.8%)
English Dem: 464 (1.1%)
Christian: 83 (0.2%)
Others: 566 (1.3%)
MAJORITY: 10824 (25.4%)

Sitting MP: John McDonnell
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

Uxbridge & South Ruislip

2010 Result:
Conservative: 21758 (48.3%)
Labour: 10542 (23.4%)
Lib Dem: 8995 (20%)
BNP: 1396 (3.1%)
Green: 477 (1.1%)
UKIP: 1234 (2.7%)
English Dem: 403 (0.9%)
Others: 271 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 11216 (24.9%)

Sitting MP: John Randall (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Safe seat for Boris Johnson to cruise into Parliament with.

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE

OUT NOW! The Politicos Guide to the General Election (by Iain Dale, Greg Callus, Robert Waller & Daniel Hamilton) £15.99 from Politicos.co.uk or £16.58 from Amazon. Also available as an eBook from Politicos.co.uk at £9.99 and Amazon at £10.19

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General Election Predictions

General Election Predictions 29: London North West

4 Jan 2015 at 13:00

Back in January I predicted the outcome of the General Election, seat by seat. Since then, I have done more research and altered some of the predictions taking into account various issues including new updated constituency polls by Lord Ashcroft. Over the next ten days I will be revisiting each county and region giving my final predictions. I’d still welcome feedback, even at this late stage.

LONDON NORTH WEST

Seats: 10
Current Political Makeup: Con 5 , Lab 3, LibDem 2
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 3, Lab 7
Final Prediction: Unchanged

Brent Central

2010 Result:
Conservative: 5067 (11.2%)
Labour: 18681 (41.2%)
Lib Dem: 20026 (44.2%)
Green: 668 (1.5%)
Respect: 230 (0.5%)
Christian: 488 (1.1%)
Independent: 163 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 1345 (3%)

Sitting MP: Sarah Teather (LibDem)
Prediction: Labour gain

I’d say this was a surefire Labour gain, but the Labour candidate (and former MP) Dawn Butler carries a lot of baggage. It won’t be heavy enough to deny her victory though, no matter how much local LibDems tell me they’re still in the game.

Brent North

2010 Result:
Conservative: 16486 (31.5%)
Labour: 24514 (46.9%)
Lib Dem: 8879 (17%)
Green: 725 (1.4%)
UKIP: 380 (0.7%)
English Dem: 247 (0.5%)
Independent: 734 (1.4%)
Others: 333 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 8028 (15.4%)

Sitting MP: Barry Gardiner (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat

Chipping Barnet

2010 Result:
Conservative: 24700 (48.8%)
Labour: 12773 (25.2%)
Lib Dem: 10202 (20.2%)
Green: 1021 (2%)
UKIP: 1442 (2.8%)
Independent: 470 (0.9%)
MAJORITY: 11927 (23.6%)

Sitting MP: Theresa Villiers (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Safe seat.

Finchley & Golders Green

2010 Result:
Conservative: 21688 (46%)
Labour: 15879 (33.7%)
Lib Dem: 8036 (17%)
Green: 737 (1.6%)
UKIP: 817 (1.7%)
MAJORITY: 5809 (12.3%)

Sitting MP: Mike Freer (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

A Labour seat during the Blair years, Finchley returned to its Tory roots in 2010. Mike Freer has a reputation as a good constituency MP and demographic changes will help him retain the seat, albeit with a reduced majority. *UPDATE: The latest Lord Ashcroft poll shows Labour just ahead here, which will give the Labour campaign some encouragement, but I would still be surprised to see them win.

Hampstead & Kilburn

2010 Result:
Conservative: 17290 (32.7%)
Labour: 17332 (32.8%)
Lib Dem: 16491 (31.2%)
BNP: 328 (0.6%)
Green: 759 (1.4%)
UKIP: 408 (0.8%)
Independent: 91 (0.2%)
Others: 123 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 42 (0.1%)

Sitting MP: Glenda Jackson (Lab)
Prediction: Conservative gain
Updated Prediction: Labour hold

Glenda Jackson is standing down. Her successor candidate, Tulip Siddiq, faces a doughty campaigner in the Tory Simon Marcus but this seat will be determined by whoever wins the most former LibDem voters to their side. UPDATE 11/1/15: I’ve had a lot of new info on this seat and have changed it to a Tory gain. UPDATE 17/3/15 The LibDem support seems to be going to Labour. The Ashcroft poll has them ahead 47-30. So a double change of mind here, I’m afraid!

Harrow East

2010 Result:
Conservative: 21435 (44.7%)
Labour: 18032 (37.6%)
Lib Dem: 6850 (14.3%)
Green: 793 (1.7%)
UKIP: 896 (1.9%)
MAJORITY: 3403 (7.1%)

Sitting MP: Bob Blackman (Con)
Prediction: Labour gain

I’d say this is a probable Labour gain, rather than a definite Labour gain. This is Tony McNulty’s old seat. Had he been refighting it, Labour’s chances would have been far higher. UPDATE 11/1/15: The Labour candidate Uma Kumaran, according to local media, is struggling to get much in the way of campaigning support from her local party and councillors. Also, the Ashcroft poll for this constituency puts the Conservatives ahead by three points. I will continue to watch this one. UPDATE: A new Ashcroft poll puts Labour ahead.

Harrow West

2010 Result:
Conservative: 16968 (36.8%)
Labour: 20111 (43.6%)
Lib Dem: 7458 (16.2%)
Green: 625 (1.4%)
UKIP: 954 (2.1%)
MAJORITY: 3143 (6.8%)

Sitting MP: Gareth Thomas (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Not a safe seat by any means but it’s unlikely Gareth Thomas will come a cropper.

Hendon

2010 Result:
Conservative: 19635 (42.3%)
Labour: 19529 (42.1%)
Lib Dem: 5734 (12.4%)
Green: 518 (1.1%)
UKIP: 958 (2.1%)
MAJORITY: 106 (0.2%)

Sitting MP: Matthew Offord
Prediction: Labour gain

If Labour don’t win this seat they must as well give up all hope.

Hornsey & Wood Green

2010 Result:
Conservative: 9174 (16.7%)
Labour: 18720 (34%)
Lib Dem: 25595 (46.5%)
Green: 1261 (2.3%)
Independent: 201 (0.4%)
Others: 91 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 6875 (12.5%)

Sitting MP: Lynne Featherstone (LibDem)
Prediction: Labour gain

Labour has a massive majority to overcome here, but they are pouring huge resources into this seat to win it back. Lynne Featherstone is a doughty campaigner and won’t be easy to shift, but if she is beaten it will be because of the collapse in LibDem support nationally.

Ruislip, Northwood & Pinner

2010 Result:
Conservative: 28866 (57.5%)
Labour: 9806 (19.5%)
Lib Dem: 8345 (16.6%)
Green: 740 (1.5%)
UKIP: 1351 (2.7%)
Christian: 198 (0.4%)
Others: 899 (1.8%)
MAJORITY: 19060 (38%)

Sitting MP: Nick Hurd (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Safe seat.

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE

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Australian blogger Sligherrian interviews Iain

A 30 minute interview on internet & Aussie politics.

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