General Election Predictions

Final General Election Predictions 33: London South East

28 Apr 2015 at 22:19

This is the thirty-third in a series of blogposts (scroll to the bottom of the article for the others) which will seek to predict the outcome of every seat in the run-up to the next general election. The notion of a universal swing in May 2015 can be totally discounted. Each seat has to be treated on its merits. Feel free to add your comments and tell me where you think I have got things wrong. I will return to update each county analysis when and if I get new information.

Seats: 12
Current Political Makeup: Con 5, Lab 6, LibDem 1
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 5 , Lab 6, LibDem 1
*Final Prediction:

Beckenham

2010 Result:
Conservative: 27597 (57.9%)
Labour: 6893 (14.5%)
Lib Dem: 9813 (20.6%)
BNP: 1001 (2.1%)
Green: 608 (1.3%)
UKIP: 1551 (3.3%)
English Dem: 223 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 17784 (37.3%)

Sitting MP: Col Bob Stewart (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Safe seat.

Bermondsey & Old Southwark

2010 Result:
Conservative: 7638 (17.1%)
Labour: 13060 (29.2%)
Lib Dem: 21590 (48.4%)
BNP: 1370 (3.1%)
Green: 718 (1.6%)
Independent: 155 (0.3%)
Others: 120 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 8530 (19.1%)

Sitting MP: Simon Hughes (LibDem)
Prediction: LibDem hold

I had thought this would be a dead cert hold for Simon Hughes but increasingly I am wondering if I am right. Labour seem very confident they can take this. However, if you look at the electoral hurdles Labour would have to overcome to win this, I think they’re going to have a tough task. They might also be hindered by a number of coalition-friendly Tories lending Simon Hughes their votes. Or they might not :)

Bexleyheath & Crayford

2010 Result:
Conservative: 21794 (50.5%)
Labour: 11450 (26.5%)
Lib Dem: 5502 (12.7%)
BNP: 2042 (4.7%)
Green: 371 (0.9%)
UKIP: 1557 (3.6%)
English Dem: 466 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 10344 (24%)

Sitting MP: David Evennett (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Safe seat.

Bromley & Chislehurst

2010 Result:
Conservative: 23569 (53.5%)
Labour: 7295 (16.6%)
Lib Dem: 9669 (22%)
BNP: 1070 (2.4%)
Green: 607 (1.4%)
UKIP: 1451 (3.3%)
English Dem: 376 (0.9%)
MAJORITY: 13900 (31.6%)

Sitting MP: Bob Neill (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Safe seat

Eltham

2010 Result:
Conservative: 15753 (37.5%)
Labour: 17416 (41.5%)
Lib Dem: 5299 (12.6%)
BNP: 1745 (4.2%)
Green: 419 (1%)
UKIP: 1011 (2.4%)
English Dem: 217 (0.5%)
Independent: 104 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 1663 (4%)

Sitting MP: Clive Efford (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Highly marginal seat which the Tories expected to take in 2010. They’re unlikely to do so in 2015 but I suppose, depending on demographic changes, it’s not beyond the bounds of possibility. Assuming the LibDem vote crumbles to Labour that possibility will die.

Erith & Thamesmead

2010 Result:
Conservative: 13365 (31.5%)
Labour: 19068 (44.9%)
Lib Dem: 5116 (12%)
BNP: 2184 (5.1%)
Green: 322 (0.8%)
UKIP: 1139 (2.7%)
English Dem: 465 (1.1%)
Others: 817 (1.9%)
MAJORITY: 5703 (13.4%)

Sitting MP: Teresa Pearce (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

It’s difficult to see any other result here than a Labour hold.

Greenwich & Woolwich

2010 Result:
Conservative: 10109 (24.5%)
Labour: 20262 (49.2%)
Lib Dem: 7498 (18.2%)
BNP: 1151 (2.8%)
Green: 1054 (2.6%)
English Dem: 339 (0.8%)
Christian: 443 (1.1%)
TUSC: 267 (0.6%)
Independent: 65 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 10153 (24.7%

Sitting MP: Nick Raynsford (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe Labour seat. Raynsford is standing down.

Lewisham Deptford

2010 Result:
Conservative: 5551 (13.5%)
Labour: 22132 (53.7%)
Lib Dem: 9633 (23.4%)
Green: 2772 (6.7%)
Others: 1132 (2.7%)
MAJORITY: 12499 (30.3%)

Sitting MP: Joan Ruddock (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe Labour seat for Vicky Foxcroft to inherit. Joan Ruddock is standing down.

Lewisham East

2010 Result:
Conservative: 9850 (23.6%)
Labour: 17966 (43.1%)
Lib Dem: 11750 (28.2%)
Green: 624 (1.5%)
UKIP: 771 (1.8%)
English Dem: 426 (1%)
Others: 332 (0.8%)
MAJORITY: 6216 (14.9%)

Sitting MP: Heidi Alexander (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

The Tories will be looking to overtake the LibDems in a seat they once held in the 1980s.

Lewisham West & Penge

2010 Result:
Conservative: 11489 (25.5%)
Labour: 18501 (41.1%)
Lib Dem: 12673 (28.1%)
Green: 931 (2.1%)
UKIP: 1117 (2.5%)
Others: 317 (0.7%)
MAJORITY: 5828 (12.9%)

Sitting MP: Jim Dowd (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

You wouldn’t class this as a safe seat, but any other result that a Labour hold would be a big surprise. It’s the sort of seat the Tories could only win in a landslide.

Old Bexley & Sidcup

2010 Result:
Conservative: 24625 (54.1%)
Labour: 8768 (19.3%)
Lib Dem: 6996 (15.4%)
BNP: 2132 (4.7%)
Green: 371 (0.8%)
UKIP: 1532 (3.4%)
English Dem: 520 (1.1%)
Others: 548 (1.2%)
MAJORITY: 15857 (34.9%)

Sitting MP: James Brokenshire (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Safe seat.

Orpington

2010 Result:
Conservative: 29200 (59.7%)
Labour: 4400 (9%)
Lib Dem: 12000 (24.5%)
BNP: 1241 (2.5%)
Green: 511 (1%)
UKIP: 1360 (2.8%)
English Dem: 199 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 17200 (35.2%)

Sitting MP: Jo Johnson (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Safe seat

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE

Share:

0 comments

Sign up via Facebook or Twitter to comment.

Small_conrad

LBC 97.3: Iain Dale interviews Conrad Black

Half an hour with the former Telegraph publisher, talking about his new memoir, A MATTER OF PRINCIPLE.

Listen now

General Election Predictions

Final General Election Predictions 32: London South West

28 Apr 2015 at 22:08

ck in January I predicted the outcome of the General Election, seat by seat. Since then, I have done more research and altered some of the predictions taking into account various issues including new updated constituency polls by Lord Ashcroft. Over the next ten days I will be revisiting each county and region giving my final predictions. I’d still welcome feedback, even at this late stage.

LONDON SOUTH WEST

Seats: 8
Current Political Makeup: Con 4, Lab 1, LibDem 3
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 4, Lab 1, LibDem 3
Final Prediction: Unchanged

Battersea

2010 Result:
Conservative: 23103 (47.3%)
Labour: 17126 (35.1%)
Lib Dem: 7176 (14.7%)
Green: 559 (1.1%)
UKIP: 505 (1%)
Independent: 155 (0.3%)
Others: 168 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 5977 (12.2%)

Sitting MP: Jane Ellison (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Not a safe Tory seat by any stretch of the imagination. Despite ongoing gentrification it’s got pockets of real poverty. If Labour fails to get a majority, this seat stays Tory.

Kingston & Surbiton

2010 Result:
Conservative: 20868 (36.5%)
Labour: 5337 (9.3%)
Lib Dem: 28428 (49.8%)
Green: 555 (1%)
UKIP: 1450 (2.5%)
Others: 473 (0.8%)
MAJORITY: 7560 (13.2%)

Sitting MP: Ed Davey (LibDem)
Prediction: LibDem hold

Ed Davey won this seat in 1997 with a wafer thin majority of 56, which rose to more than 15,000 in 2001. But since then the Conservative vote has been on the rise. Davey has only managed to win with such handsome majorities because he has squeezed the Labour vote from 23% down to 9%. If that trend reverses, the Conservatives could squeak it, but it’s highly unlikely. Ed Davey ought to be safe and sound here, and I think he will be. I’m not sure he does though, given that he appears to only spend 2 days a week at the Department of Energy & Climate Change, if Guido Fawkes is to be believed. The rest of his time is spent campaigning in his constituency.

Mitcham & Morden

2010 Result:
Conservative: 11056 (25.2%)
Labour: 24722 (56.4%)
Lib Dem: 5202 (11.9%)
BNP: 1386 (3.2%)
Green: 381 (0.9%)
UKIP: 857 (2%)
Independent: 155 (0.4%)
Others: 38 (0.1%)
MAJORITY: 13666 (31.2%)

Sitting MP: Siobhan McDonough (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

Putney

2010 Result:
Conservative: 21223 (52%)
Labour: 11170 (27.4%)
Lib Dem: 6907 (16.9%)
BNP: 459 (1.1%)
Green: 591 (1.4%)
UKIP: 435 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 10053 (24.6%)

Sitting MP: Justine Greening (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Safe seat.

Richmond Park

2010 Result:
Conservative: 29461 (49.7%)
Labour: 2979 (5%)
Lib Dem: 25370 (42.8%)
Green: 572 (1%)
UKIP: 669 (1.1%)
Independent: 84 (0.1%)
Others: 133 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 4091 (6.9%)

Sitting MP: Zac Goldsmith (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Zac Goldsmith won this sear by a bigger majority than anyone expected. It’s difficult to see him being shifted in May.

Sutton & Cheam

2010 Result:
Conservative: 20548 (42.4%)
Labour: 3376 (7%)
Lib Dem: 22156 (45.7%)
BNP: 1014 (2.1%)
Green: 246 (0.5%)
UKIP: 950 (2%)
English Dem: 106 (0.2%)
Others: 112 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 1608 (3.3%)

Sitting MP: Paul Burstow (LibDem)
Prediction: Narrow Conservative gain
Revised Prediction: LibDem hold

The Labour vote has halved to 7.7% since 1997 and will inevitably rise in 2015. Paul Burstow is standing again and incumbency could play a vital role if he is to retain his seat, but if the Tory vote holds up, he may have a problem. UPDATE: The Ashcroft poll was pretty conclusive, 45-27. I missed this when I did my original prediction.

Twickenham

2010 Result:
Conservative: 20343 (34.1%)
Labour: 4583 (7.7%)
Lib Dem: 32483 (54.4%)
BNP: 654 (1.1%)
Green: 674 (1.1%)
UKIP: 868 (1.5%)
Others: 116 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 12140 (20.3%)

Sitting MP: Vince Cable (LibDem)
Prediction: LibDem hold

I have changed this seat from a dead cert LibDem Hold to probable. It’s known that Vince Cable has become very nervous about his prospects and the Tories have become quite active here. Much is dependent on whether Labour will siphon off former LibDem votes, although these could be cancelled out by the UKIP votes lost by the Tories.

Wimbledon

2010 Result:
Conservative: 23257 (49.1%)
Labour: 10550 (22.3%)
Lib Dem: 11849 (25%)
Green: 590 (1.2%)
UKIP: 914 (1.9%)
Christian: 235 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 11408 (24.1%)

Sitting MP: Stephen Hammond (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Safe seat.

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE

Share:

0 comments

Sign up via Facebook or Twitter to comment.

Small_lbclogo

Iain talks to Julie in Basildon about bad parenting

An emotional call.

Listen now

General Election Predictions

Final General Election Predictions 31: London Central

28 Apr 2015 at 21:54

Back in January I predicted the outcome of the General Election, seat by seat. Since then, I have done more research and altered some of the predictions taking into account various issues including new updated constituency polls by Lord Ashcroft. Over the next ten days I will be revisiting each county and region giving my final predictions. I’d still welcome feedback, even at this late stage.

LONDON CENTRAL

Seats: 6
Current Political Makeup: Con 2, Lab 4
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 2, Lab 4
Final Prediction: Unchanged

Cities of London & Westminster

2010 Result:
Conservative: 19264 (52.2%)
Labour: 8188 (22.2%)
Lib Dem: 7574 (20.5%)
Green: 778 (2.1%)
UKIP: 664 (1.8%)
English Dem: 191 (0.5%)
Independent: 98 (0.3%)
Others: 174 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 11076 (30%)

Sitting MP: Mark Field (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Safe seat.

Holborn & St Pancras

2010 Result:
Conservative: 11134 (20.4%)
Labour: 25198 (46.1%)
Lib Dem: 15256 (27.9%)
BNP: 779 (1.4%)
Green: 1480 (2.7%)
UKIP: 587 (1.1%)
English Dem: 75 (0.1%)
Independent: 96 (0.2%)
Others: 44 (0.1%)
MAJORITY: 9942 (18.2%)

Sitting MP: Frank Dobson (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

A nice majority for Sir Keir Starmer to inherit.

Islington South & Finsbury

2010 Result:
Conservative: 8449 (19.4%)
Labour: 18407 (42.3%)
Lib Dem: 14838 (34.1%)
Green: 710 (1.6%)
UKIP: 701 (1.6%)
English Dem: 301 (0.7%)
Others: 149 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 3569 (8.2%)

Sitting MP: Emily Thornbury (Lab)
Prediction: Increased Labour majority

Difficult to see anything other than a doubling of Emily Thornberry’s majority here.

Kensington

2010 Result:
Conservative: 17595 (50.1%)
Labour: 8979 (25.5%)
Lib Dem: 6872 (19.6%)
Green: 753 (2.1%)
UKIP: 754 (2.1%)
Others: 197 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 8616 (24.5%)

Sitting MP: Sir Malcolm Rifkind (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Safe seat.

Poplar & Limehouse

2010 Result:
Conservative: 12649 (27.1%)
Labour: 18679 (40%)
Lib Dem: 5209 (11.2%)
Green: 449 (1%)
UKIP: 565 (1.2%)
Respect: 8160 (17.5%)
English Dem: 470 (1%)
Independent: 293 (0.6%)
Others: 226 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 6030 (12.9%)

Sitting MP: Jim Fitzpatrick (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safeish seat.

Westminster North

2010 Result:
Conservative: 15251 (38.5%)
Labour: 17377 (43.9%)
Lib Dem: 5513 (13.9%)
BNP: 334 (0.8%)
Green: 478 (1.2%)
UKIP: 315 (0.8%)
English Dem: 99 (0.3%)
Christian: 98 (0.2%)
Independent: 101 (0.3%)
Others: 32 (0.1%)
MAJORITY: 2126 (5.4%)

Sitting MP: Karen Buck (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

No problems for Karen Buck here. Her majority should go up by a couple of thousand at the very least.

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE

Share:

0 comments

Sign up via Facebook or Twitter to comment.

Small_lbclogo

Iain Talks to Labour MP John Woodock About His Depression

John Woodcock explains his decision to go public on his depression.

Listen now

General Election Predictions

Final General Election Predictions 30: London West

28 Apr 2015 at 21:51

Back in January I predicted the outcome of the General Election, seat by seat. Since then, I have done more research and altered some of the predictions taking into account various issues including new updated constituency polls by Lord Ashcroft. Over the next ten days I will be revisiting each county and region giving my final predictions. I’d still welcome feedback, even at this late stage.

LONDON WEST

Seats: 9
Current Political Makeup: Con 4, Lab 5
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 2, Lab 7
Final Prediction: Unchanged

Brentford & Isleworth

2010 Result:
Conservative: 20022 (37.2%)
Labour: 18064 (33.6%)
Lib Dem: 12718 (23.7%)
BNP: 704 (1.3%)
Green: 787 (1.5%)
UKIP: 863 (1.6%)
English Dem: 230 (0.4%)
Christian: 210 (0.4%)
Independent: 68 (0.1%)
Others: 99 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 1958 (3.6%)

Sitting MP: Mary Macleod (Con)
Prediction: Labour gain

Mary Macleod has had a relatively high profile as a backbencher but that won’t save her here. What could save her is the gradual gentrification of the constituency, although the fragmenting of the LibDem vote and where it goes is more likely to determine Macleod’s fate.

Chelsea & Fulham

2010 Result:
Conservative: 24093 (60.5%)
Labour: 7371 (18.5%)
Lib Dem: 6473 (16.2%)
BNP: 388 (1%)
Green: 671 (1.7%)
UKIP: 478 (1.2%)
English Dem: 169 (0.4%)
Others: 213 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 16722 (42%)

Sitting MP: Greg Hands (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Safe seat.

Ealing Central & Acton

2010 Result:
Conservative: 17944 (38%)
Labour: 14228 (30.1%)
Lib Dem: 13041 (27.6%)
Green: 737 (1.6%)
UKIP: 765 (1.6%)
Christian: 295 (0.6%)
Others: 190 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 3716 (7.9%)

Sitting MP: Angie Bray (Con)
Prediction: Labour gain

Again, the LibDem vote will determine whether Labour can take this marginal seat from Angie Bray. The Labour vote has halved here since 1997 – a far steeper rate of decline than in Brentford & Isleworth. This lends weight to the gentrifcation argument which now seems to be affecting outer boroughs like Ealing. A similar effect can be seen in parts of North East and East London.

Ealing North

2010 Result:
Conservative: 14722 (30.9%)
Labour: 24023 (50.4%)
Lib Dem: 6283 (13.2%)
BNP: 1045 (2.2%)
Green: 505 (1.1%)
UKIP: 685 (1.4%)
Christian: 415 (0.9%)
MAJORITY: 9301 (19.5%)

Sitting MP: Stephen Pound
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

Ealing Southall

2010 Result:
Conservative: 12733 (29.8%)
Labour: 22024 (51.5%)
Lib Dem: 6383 (14.9%)
Green: 705 (1.6%)
English Dem: 408 (1%)
Christian: 503 (1.2%)
MAJORITY: 9291 (21.7%)

Sitting MP: Virendra Sharma (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

Feltham & Heston

2010 Result:
Conservative: 16516 (34%)
Labour: 21174 (43.6%)
Lib Dem: 6679 (13.8%)
BNP: 1714 (3.5%)
Green: 530 (1.1%)
UKIP: 992 (2%)
Independent: 505 (1%)
Others: 426 (0.9%)
MAJORITY: 4658 (9.6%)

BY-ELECTION 2011
Seema Malhotra (Labour) 12639 54.4% (10.8%)
Mark Bowen (Conservative) 6436 27.7% (-6.3%)
Roger Crouch (Liberal Democrat) 1364 5.9% (-7.8%)
Andrew Charalambous (UKIP) 1276 5.5% (
3.5%)
Dave Furness (BNP) 540 2.3% (-1.2%)
Daniel Goldsmith (Green) 426 1.8% (0.7%)
Roger Cooper (English Democrats) 322 1.4% (n/a)
George Hallam (People Before Profit) 128 0.6% (n/a)
David Bishop (Buss Pass Elvis) 93 0.4% (n/a)
MAJORITY 6203 26.7% (
17.1%)
Turnout 28.8% (-31.1%)

Sitting MP: Seema Malhotra (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

This was thought to be vulnerable to the Tories at the last election but the then MP Alan Keen held on well. The 2011 by-election showed that they were never really in the game here.

Hammersmith

2010 Result:
Conservative: 17261 (36.4%)
Labour: 20810 (43.9%)
Lib Dem: 7567 (15.9%)
BNP: 432 (0.9%)
Green: 696 (1.5%)
UKIP: 551 (1.2%)
Independent: 135 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 3549 (7.5%)

Sitting MP: Andy Slaughter (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Widely tipped to fall to the Tories in 2010, Labour not only held on, but got a good majority. Andy Slaughter is safe here.

Hayes & Harlington

2010 Result:
Conservative: 12553 (29.4%)
Labour: 23377 (54.8%)
Lib Dem: 3726 (8.7%)
BNP: 1520 (3.6%)
Green: 348 (0.8%)
English Dem: 464 (1.1%)
Christian: 83 (0.2%)
Others: 566 (1.3%)
MAJORITY: 10824 (25.4%)

Sitting MP: John McDonnell
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

Uxbridge & South Ruislip

2010 Result:
Conservative: 21758 (48.3%)
Labour: 10542 (23.4%)
Lib Dem: 8995 (20%)
BNP: 1396 (3.1%)
Green: 477 (1.1%)
UKIP: 1234 (2.7%)
English Dem: 403 (0.9%)
Others: 271 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 11216 (24.9%)

Sitting MP: John Randall (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Safe seat for Boris Johnson to cruise into Parliament with.

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE

Share:

0 comments

Sign up via Facebook or Twitter to comment.

Small_simon_milton

LBC 97.3: Iain Dale's Tribute to Sir Simon Milton

Sir Simon Milton's death saddened the whole of London. Iain pays tribute to him.

Listen now

General Election Predictions

Final General Election Predictions 29: London North West

28 Apr 2015 at 20:32

Back in January I predicted the outcome of the General Election, seat by seat. Since then, I have done more research and altered some of the predictions taking into account various issues including new updated constituency polls by Lord Ashcroft. Over the next ten days I will be revisiting each county and region giving my final predictions. I’d still welcome feedback, even at this late stage.

LONDON NORTH WEST

Seats: 10
Current Political Makeup: Con 5 , Lab 3, LibDem 2
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 3, Lab 7
Final Prediction: Unchanged

Brent Central

2010 Result:
Conservative: 5067 (11.2%)
Labour: 18681 (41.2%)
Lib Dem: 20026 (44.2%)
Green: 668 (1.5%)
Respect: 230 (0.5%)
Christian: 488 (1.1%)
Independent: 163 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 1345 (3%)

Sitting MP: Sarah Teather (LibDem)
Prediction: Labour gain

I’d say this was a surefire Labour gain, but the Labour candidate (and former MP) Dawn Butler carries a lot of baggage. It won’t be heavy enough to deny her victory though, no matter how much local LibDems tell me they’re still in the game.

Brent North

2010 Result:
Conservative: 16486 (31.5%)
Labour: 24514 (46.9%)
Lib Dem: 8879 (17%)
Green: 725 (1.4%)
UKIP: 380 (0.7%)
English Dem: 247 (0.5%)
Independent: 734 (1.4%)
Others: 333 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 8028 (15.4%)

Sitting MP: Barry Gardiner (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat

Chipping Barnet

2010 Result:
Conservative: 24700 (48.8%)
Labour: 12773 (25.2%)
Lib Dem: 10202 (20.2%)
Green: 1021 (2%)
UKIP: 1442 (2.8%)
Independent: 470 (0.9%)
MAJORITY: 11927 (23.6%)

Sitting MP: Theresa Villiers (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Safe seat.

Finchley & Golders Green

2010 Result:
Conservative: 21688 (46%)
Labour: 15879 (33.7%)
Lib Dem: 8036 (17%)
Green: 737 (1.6%)
UKIP: 817 (1.7%)
MAJORITY: 5809 (12.3%)

Sitting MP: Mike Freer (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

A Labour seat during the Blair years, Finchley returned to its Tory roots in 2010. Mike Freer has a reputation as a good constituency MP and demographic changes will help him retain the seat, albeit with a reduced majority. *UPDATE: The latest Lord Ashcroft poll shows Labour just ahead here, which will give the Labour campaign some encouragement, but I would still be surprised to see them win.

Hampstead & Kilburn

2010 Result:
Conservative: 17290 (32.7%)
Labour: 17332 (32.8%)
Lib Dem: 16491 (31.2%)
BNP: 328 (0.6%)
Green: 759 (1.4%)
UKIP: 408 (0.8%)
Independent: 91 (0.2%)
Others: 123 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 42 (0.1%)

Sitting MP: Glenda Jackson (Lab)
Prediction: Conservative gain
Updated Prediction: Labour hold

Glenda Jackson is standing down. Her successor candidate, Tulip Siddiq, faces a doughty campaigner in the Tory Simon Marcus but this seat will be determined by whoever wins the most former LibDem voters to their side. UPDATE 11/1/15: I’ve had a lot of new info on this seat and have changed it to a Tory gain. UPDATE 17/3/15 The LibDem support seems to be going to Labour. The Ashcroft poll has them ahead 47-30. So a double change of mind here, I’m afraid!

Harrow East

2010 Result:
Conservative: 21435 (44.7%)
Labour: 18032 (37.6%)
Lib Dem: 6850 (14.3%)
Green: 793 (1.7%)
UKIP: 896 (1.9%)
MAJORITY: 3403 (7.1%)

Sitting MP: Bob Blackman (Con)
Prediction: Labour gain

I’d say this is a probable Labour gain, rather than a definite Labour gain. This is Tony McNulty’s old seat. Had he been refighting it, Labour’s chances would have been far higher. UPDATE 11/1/15: The Labour candidate Uma Kumaran, according to local media, is struggling to get much in the way of campaigning support from her local party and councillors. Also, the Ashcroft poll for this constituency puts the Conservatives ahead by three points. I will continue to watch this one. UPDATE: A new Ashcroft poll puts Labour ahead.

Harrow West

2010 Result:
Conservative: 16968 (36.8%)
Labour: 20111 (43.6%)
Lib Dem: 7458 (16.2%)
Green: 625 (1.4%)
UKIP: 954 (2.1%)
MAJORITY: 3143 (6.8%)

Sitting MP: Gareth Thomas (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Not a safe seat by any means but it’s unlikely Gareth Thomas will come a cropper.

Hendon

2010 Result:
Conservative: 19635 (42.3%)
Labour: 19529 (42.1%)
Lib Dem: 5734 (12.4%)
Green: 518 (1.1%)
UKIP: 958 (2.1%)
MAJORITY: 106 (0.2%)

Sitting MP: Matthew Offord
Prediction: Labour gain

If Labour don’t win this seat they must as well give up all hope.

Hornsey & Wood Green

2010 Result:
Conservative: 9174 (16.7%)
Labour: 18720 (34%)
Lib Dem: 25595 (46.5%)
Green: 1261 (2.3%)
Independent: 201 (0.4%)
Others: 91 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 6875 (12.5%)

Sitting MP: Lynne Featherstone (LibDem)
Prediction: Labour gain

Labour has a massive majority to overcome here, but they are pouring huge resources into this seat to win it back. Lynne Featherstone is a doughty campaigner and won’t be easy to shift, but if she is beaten it will be because of the collapse in LibDem support nationally.

Ruislip, Northwood & Pinner

2010 Result:
Conservative: 28866 (57.5%)
Labour: 9806 (19.5%)
Lib Dem: 8345 (16.6%)
Green: 740 (1.5%)
UKIP: 1351 (2.7%)
Christian: 198 (0.4%)
Others: 899 (1.8%)
MAJORITY: 19060 (38%)

Sitting MP: Nick Hurd (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Safe seat.

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE

Share:

0 comments

Sign up via Facebook or Twitter to comment.

Small_watch

Video: Iain & Andrew Mitchell Debate Rwanda

18 Doughty Street - include 3x15 min documentaries

Listen now

General Election Predictions

Final General Election Predictions 28: London North East

28 Apr 2015 at 20:23

Back in January I predicted the outcome of the General Election, seat by seat. Since then, I have done more research and altered some of the predictions taking into account various issues including new updated constituency polls by Lord Ashcroft. Over the next ten days I will be revisiting each county and region giving my final predictions. I’d still welcome feedback, even at this late stage.

LONDON NORTH EAST

Seats: 11
Current Political Makeup: Con 4, Lab 7
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 3, Lab 8
Final Preduction:

Chingford & Woodford Green

2010 Result:
Conservative: 22743 (52.8%)
Labour: 9780 (22.7%)
Lib Dem: 7242 (16.8%)
BNP: 1288 (3%)
Green: 650 (1.5%)
UKIP: 1133 (2.6%)
Independent: 202 (0.5%)
Others: 68 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 12963 (30.1%)

Sitting MP: Iain Duncan Smith (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Safe seat

Edmonton

2010 Result:
Conservative: 12052 (29.8%)
Labour: 21665 (53.7%)
Lib Dem: 4252 (10.5%)
Green: 516 (1.3%)
UKIP: 1036 (2.6%)
Christian: 350 (0.9%)
Independent: 127 (0.3%)
Others: 379 (0.9%)
MAJORITY: 9613 (23.8%)

Sitting MP: Andy Love (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Enfield North

2010 Result:
Conservative: 18804 (42.3%)
Labour: 17112 (38.5%)
Lib Dem: 5403 (12.2%)
BNP: 1228 (2.8%)
Green: 489 (1.1%)
UKIP: 938 (2.1%)
English Dem: 131 (0.3%)
Christian: 161 (0.4%)
Independent: 91 (0.2%)
Others: 96 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 1692 (3.8%)

Sitting MP: Nick de Bois (Con)
Prediction: Labour gain

This seat is more complicated than it looks. You’d think it would be a Labour banker to regain, but the local Labour Party is in dissaray after they re-selected Joan Ryan, who Nick De Bois defeated in 2010. She’s a gift to the Tories because of her record on expenses, and the circumstances surrounding her selection whiff to say the least. There are also demographic changes afoot in this seat which benefit the Conservatives. However, I’m going with Labour in my prediction as I think the odds still go marginally in their favour.

Enfield Southgate

2010 Result:
Conservative: 21928 (49.4%)
Labour: 14302 (32.2%)
Lib Dem: 6124 (13.8%)
Green: 632 (1.4%)
UKIP: 505 (1.1%)
Respect: 174 (0.4%)
English Dem: 173 (0.4%)
Independent: 391 (0.9%)
Others: 123 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 7626 (17.2%)

Sitting MP: David Burrowes (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Portillo’s old seat. I doubt there will be much of an upset this time.

Hackney North & Stoke Newington

2010 Result:
Conservative: 6759 (14.5%)
Labour: 25553 (55%)
Lib Dem: 11092 (23.9%)
Green: 2133 (4.6%)
Christian: 299 (0.6%)
Independent: 96 (0.2%)
Others: 529 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 14461 (31.1%)

Sitting MP: Diane Abbott (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

Ilford North

2010 Result:
Conservative: 21506 (45.7%)
Labour: 16102 (34.2%)
Lib Dem: 5966 (12.7%)
BNP: 1545 (3.3%)
Green: 572 (1.2%)
UKIP: 871 (1.9%)
Others: 456 (1%)
MAJORITY: 5404 (11.5%)

Sitting MP: Lee Scott (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

This seat will definitely be targeted by Labour but unless they are heading for a decent sized majority I don’t see it falling to them.

Ilford South

2010 Result:
Conservative: 14014 (27.4%)
Labour: 25301 (49.4%)
Lib Dem: 8679 (17%)
Green: 1319 (2.6%)
UKIP: 1132 (2.2%)
Others: 746 (1.5%)
MAJORITY: 11287 (22%)

Sitting MP: Mike Gapes (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

Islington North

2010 Result:
Conservative: 6339 (14.2%)
Labour: 24276 (54.5%)
Lib Dem: 11875 (26.7%)
Green: 1348 (3%)
UKIP: 716 (1.6%)
MAJORITY: 12401 (27.8%)

Sitting MP: Jeremy Corbyn (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

Leyton & Wanstead

2010 Result:
Conservative: 8928 (22.2%)
Labour: 17511 (43.6%)
Lib Dem: 11095 (27.6%)
BNP: 561 (1.4%)
Green: 562 (1.4%)
UKIP: 1080 (2.7%)
Christian: 342 (0.9%)
Others: 80 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 6416 (16%)

Sitting MP: John Cryer (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat

Tottenham

2010 Result:
Conservative: 6064 (14.9%)
Labour: 24128 (59.3%)
Lib Dem: 7197 (17.7%)
Green: 980 (2.4%)
UKIP: 466 (1.1%)
Christian: 262 (0.6%)
TUSC: 1057 (2.6%)
Independent: 143 (0.4%)
Others: 390 (1%)
MAJORITY: 16931 (41.6%)

Sitting MP: David Lammy (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

Walthamstow

2010 Result:
Conservative: 5734 (14%)
Labour: 21252 (51.8%)
Lib Dem: 11774 (28.7%)
Green: 767 (1.9%)
UKIP: 823 (2%)
Christian: 248 (0.6%)
TUSC: 279 (0.7%)
Independent: 117 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 9478 (23.1%)

Sitting MP: Stella Creasy (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE

Share:

0 comments

Sign up via Facebook or Twitter to comment.

Small_watch

Video: Iain Dale North Norfolk Campaign Video on Health Issues

Created by Salsa Shark

Listen now

General Election Predictions

Final General Election Predictions 27: London East

28 Apr 2015 at 15:42

Back in January I predicted the outcome of the General Election, seat by seat. Since then, I have done more research and altered some of the predictions taking into account various issues including new updated constituency polls by Lord Ashcroft. Over the next ten days I will be revisiting each county and region giving my final predictions. I’d still welcome feedback, even at this late stage.

Seats: 8
Current Political Makeup: Con 2, Lab 6
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 2, Lab 6
Final Prediction: Unchanged

Barking

2010 Result:
Conservative: 8073 (17.8%)
Labour: 24628 (54.3%)
Lib Dem: 3719 (8.2%)
BNP: 6620 (14.6%)
Green: 317 (0.7%)
UKIP: 1300 (2.9%)
Christian: 482 (1.1%)
Independent: 77 (0.2%)
Others: 127 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 16555 (36.5%)

Sitting MP: Margaret Hodge (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

Bethnal Green & Bow

2010 Result:
Conservative: 7071 (13.9%)
Labour: 21784 (42.9%)
Lib Dem: 10210 (20.1%)
BNP: 1405 (2.8%)
Green: 856 (1.7%)
Respect: 8532 (16.8%)
Independent: 277 (0.5%)
Others: 593 (1.2%)
MAJORITY: 11574 (22.8%)

Sitting MP: Rushanara Ali (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe Labour seat.

Dagenham & Rainham

2010 Result:
Conservative: 15183 (34.3%)
Labour: 17813 (40.3%)
Lib Dem: 3806 (8.6%)
BNP: 4952 (11.2%)
Green: 296 (0.7%)
UKIP: 1569 (3.5%)
Christian: 305 (0.7%)
Independent: 308 (0.7%)
MAJORITY: 2630 (5.9%)

Sitting MP: Jon Cruddas (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

The Tories had high hopes of winning this seat in 2010, but that time is long gone.

East Ham

2010 Result:
Conservative: 7645 (15.2%)
Labour: 35471 (70.4%)
Lib Dem: 5849 (11.6%)
Green: 586 (1.2%)
English Dem: 822 (1.6%)
MAJORITY: 27826 (55.2%)

Sitting MP: Stephen Timms (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

Hackney South & Shoreditch

2010 Result:
Conservative: 5800 (13.5%)
Labour: 23888 (55.7%)
Lib Dem: 9600 (22.4%)
Green: 1493 (3.5%)
UKIP: 651 (1.5%)
Liberal: 539 (1.3%)
Christian: 434 (1%)
Independent: 95 (0.2%)
Others: 358 (0.8%)
MAJORITY: 14288 (33.3%)

Sitting MP: Meg Hillier (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat

Hornchurch & Upminster

2010 Result:
Conservative: 27469 (51.4%)
Labour: 11098 (20.8%)
Lib Dem: 7426 (13.9%)
BNP: 3421 (6.4%)
Green: 542 (1%)
UKIP: 2848 (5.3%)
Christian: 281 (0.5%)
Independent: 305 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 16371 (30.7%

Sitting MP: Angela Watkinson (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Safe seat

Romford

2010 Result:
Conservative: 26031 (56%)
Labour: 9077 (19.5%)
Lib Dem: 5572 (12%)
BNP: 2438 (5.2%)
Green: 447 (1%)
UKIP: 2050 (4.4%)
English Dem: 603 (1.3%)
Independent: 151 (0.3%)
Others: 112 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 16954 (36.5%)

Sitting MP: Andrew Rosindell
Prediction: Conservative hold

Safe seat.

West Ham

2010 Result:
Conservative: 6888 (14.7%)
Labour: 29422 (62.7%)
Lib Dem: 5392 (11.5%)
Green: 645 (1.4%)
UKIP: 766 (1.6%)
Independent: 1245 (2.7%)
Others: 2593 (5.5%)
MAJORITY: 22534 (48%)

Sitting MP: Lyn Brown (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE

Share:

0 comments

Sign up via Facebook or Twitter to comment.

Small_lev

LBC 97.3: Iain Dale's Sunday Debate: Leveson

Mark Lewis, Professor Stephen Barnet and Jim Fitzpatrick MP debate the imminent Leveson Report.

Listen now

General Election Predictions

Final Seat by Seat General Election Predictions 26: Northamptonshire

28 Apr 2015 at 12:10

Back in January I predicted the outcome of the General Election, seat by seat. Since then, I have done more research and altered some of the predictions taking into account various issues including new updated constituency polls by Lord Ashcroft. Over the next ten days I will be revisiting each county and region giving my final predictions. I’d still welcome feedback, even at this late stage.

NORTHAMPTONSHIRE

Seats: 7
Current Political Makeup: Con 6, Lab 1
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 5 , Lab 2
Final Prediction: Unchanged

1. Corby

2010 Result:
Conservative: 22886 (42.2%)
Labour: 20991 (38.7%)
Lib Dem: 7834 (14.4%)
BNP: 2525 (4.7%)
MAJORITY: 1895 (3.5%)

BY ELECTION

Andy Sawford (Labour) 17267 48.4% (+9.8%)
Christine Emmett (Conservative) 9476 26.6% (-15.6%)
Margot Parker (UKIP) 5108 14.3% (n/a)
Jill Hope (Liberal Democrat) 1770 5% (-9.5%)
Gordon Riddell (BNP) 614 1.7% (-3%)
David Wickham (English Democrat) 432 1.2% (n/a)
Jonathan Hornett (Green) 378 1.1% (n/a)
Ian Gillman (Independent) 212 0.6% (n/a)
Peter Reynolds (Cannabis Law Reform) 137 0.4% (n/a)
David Bishop (Elvis Loves Pets) 99 0.3% (n/a)
Mr Mozzarella (Independent) 73 0.2% (n/a)
Rohen Kapur (Young People) 39 0.1% (n/a)
Adam Lotun (Democracy 2015) 35 0.1% (n/a)
Christopher Scotton (United People) 25 0.1% (n/a)
MAJORITY 7791 21.8%
Turnout 44.8% (-24.4%)

Sitting MP: Andy Sawford (Lab)
Prediction: Labour gain
When Louise Mensch moved to New York Labour was always going to win the by-election and Andy Sawford did so with a big majority. He’s likely to increase it in May.

2. Daventry

2010 Result:
Conservative: 29252 (56.5%)
Labour: 8168 (15.8%)
Lib Dem: 10064 (19.4%)
Green: 770 (1.5%)
UKIP: 2333 (4.5%)
English Dem: 1187 (2.3%)
MAJORITY: 19188 (37.1%)

Sitting MP: Chris Heaton-Harris (Con
Prediction: Conservative hold

Safe seat.

3. Kettering

2010 Result:
Conservative: 23247 (49.1%)
Labour: 14153 (29.9%)
Lib Dem: 7498 (15.8%)
BNP: 1366 (2.9%)
English Dem: 952 (2%)
Others: 112 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 9094 (19.2%)

Sitting MP: Philip Hollobone
Prediction: Conservative hold

Relatively safe seat.

4. Northampton North

2010 Result:
Conservative: 13735 (34.1%)
Labour: 11799 (29.3%)
Lib Dem: 11250 (27.9%)
BNP: 1316 (3.3%)
Green: 443 (1.1%)
UKIP: 1238 (3.1%)
Christian: 98 (0.2%)
Independent: 334 (0.8%)
Others: 58 (0.1%)
MAJORITY: 1936 (4.8%

Sitting MP: Michael Ellis (Con)
Prediction: Labour gain

I can’t see any other result than a Labour gain here, assuming the LibDem vote goes to Labour. UPDATE: The Ashcroft poll only has Labour one point ahead, so this one could be closer than I originall thought.

5. Northampton South

2010 Result:
Conservative: 15917 (40.8%)
Labour: 9913 (25.4%)
Lib Dem: 7579 (19.4%)
Green: 363 (0.9%)
UKIP: 1897 (4.9%)
English Dem: 618 (1.6%)
Independent: 2242 (5.8%)
Others: 449 (1.2%)
MAJORITY: 6004 (15.4%)

Sitting MP: Brian Binley (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Brian Binley is standing down. so this is not as safe as it appears, but unless Labour are heading for a massive majority, Binley’s successor, David Macintosh, should be OK.

6. South Northamptonshire

2010 Result:
Conservative: 33081 (55.2%)
Labour: 10380 (17.3%)
Lib Dem: 12603 (21%)
Green: 685 (1.1%)
UKIP: 2406 (4%)
English Dem: 735 (1.2%)
MAJORITY: 20478 (34.2%)

Sitting MP: Andrea Leadsom (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Safe seat.

7. Wellingborough

2010 Result:
Conservative: 24918 (48.2%)
Labour: 13131 (25.4%)
Lib Dem: 8848 (17.1%)
BNP: 1596 (3.1%)
Green: 480 (0.9%)
UKIP: 1636 (3.2%)
English Dem: 530 (1%)
TUSC: 249 (0.5%)
Independent: 240 (0.5%)
Others: 33 (0.1%)
MAJORITY: 11787 (22.8%)

Sitting MP: Peter Bone (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Mrs Bone will be pleased.

To all see previous predictions. click HERE

Share:

0 comments

Sign up via Facebook or Twitter to comment.

Small_alastair-campbell-c-avalon-web

LBC 97.3: Iain Dale talks to Alastair Campbell

Alastair Campbell reveals to Iain he is thinking about becoming an MP

Listen now

General Election Predictions

Final General Election Predictions 25: Derbyshire

28 Apr 2015 at 11:49

Back in January I predicted the outcome of the General Election, seat by seat. Since then, I have done more research and altered some of the predictions taking into account various issues including new updated constituency polls by Lord Ashcroft. Over the next ten days I will be revisiting each county and region giving my final predictions. I’d still welcome feedback, even at this late stage.

DERBYSHIRE

Seats: 11
Current Political Makeup: Con 6, Lab 5
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 4, Lab 7
Final Prediction: Unchanged

1. Amber Valley

2010 Result:
Conservative: 17746 (38.6%)
Labour: 17210 (37.4%)
Lib Dem: 6636 (14.4%)
BNP: 3195 (7%)
UKIP: 906 (2%)
Others: 265 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 536 (1.2%)

Sitting MP: Nigel Mills (Con)
Prediction: Labour gain

Surefire Labour gain. Nigel Mills ‘Candy Crush’ incident won’t have helped him.

2. Bolsover

2010 Result:
Conservative: 10812 (24.6%)
Labour: 21994 (50%)
Lib Dem: 6821 (15.5%)
BNP: 2640 (6%)
UKIP: 1721 (3.9%)
MAJORITY: 11182 (25.4%)

Sitting MP: Dennis Skinner (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

3. Chesterfield

2010 Result:
Conservative: 7214 (15.7%)
Labour: 17891 (39%)
Lib Dem: 17342 (37.8%)
Green: 600 (1.3%)
UKIP: 1432 (3.1%)
English Dem: 1213 (2.6%)
Independent: 147 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 549 (1.2%)

Sitting MP: Toby Perkins (Lab)
Prediction: Increased Labour majority

One of only three Labour gains at the last election (from the LibDems, in the case of Chesterfield), Toby Perkins will have a very decent majority in May 2015.

4. Derby North

2010 Result:
Conservative: 14283 (31.7%)
Labour: 14896 (33%)
Lib Dem: 12638 (28%)
BNP: 2000 (4.4%)
UKIP: 829 (1.8%)
Independent: 264 (0.6%)
Others: 170 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 613 (1.4%)

Sitting MP: Chris Williamson (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

A genuine three way marginal. At least, it was at the last election. Expect Chris Williamson to capitalise on LibDem woes.

5. Derby South

2010 Result:
Conservative: 11729 (28.5%)
Labour: 17851 (43.3%)
Lib Dem: 8430 (20.5%)
UKIP: 1821 (4.4%)
Independent: 1357 (3.3%)
MAJORITY: 6122 (14.9%)

Sitting MP: Margaret Beckett (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe Labour seat.

6. Derbyshire Dales

2010 Result:
Conservative: 24378 (52.1%)
Labour: 9061 (19.4%)
Lib Dem: 10512 (22.5%)
Green: 772 (1.7%)
UKIP: 1779 (3.8%)
Others: 278 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 13866 (29.6%)

Sitting MP: Patrick McLoughlin (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Safe seat.

7. Erewash

2010 Result:
Conservative: 18805 (39.5%)
Labour: 16304 (34.2%)
Lib Dem: 8343 (17.5%)
BNP: 2337 (4.9%)
Green: 534 (1.1%)
UKIP: 855 (1.8%)
Independent: 464 (1%)
MAJORITY: 2501 (5.2%)

Sitting MP: Jessica Lee (Con)
Prediction: Labour gain

Jessica Lee is standing down, whih will certainly hurt the Tories’ chances of retaining this seat. It would be astonishing if Labour didn’t win here in May.

8. High Peak

2010 Result:
Conservative: 20587 (40.9%)
Labour: 15910 (31.6%)
Lib Dem: 10993 (21.8%)
Green: 922 (1.8%)
UKIP: 1690 (3.4%)
Independent: 161 (0.3%)
Others: 74 (0.1%)
MAJORITY: 4677 (9.3%)

Sitting MP: Andrew Bingham (Con)
Prediction: Narrow Conservative hold

Could go either way, but the majority here is big enough to give Andrew Bignham hope of retaining the seat he won in 2010. However, the problem is that the LibDems have a 22% vote share here. If this reduces by half, it’s likely Labour could snatch the seat. I’m giving Bingham the benefit of a very severe doubt.

9. Mid Derbyshire

2010 Result:
Conservative: 22877 (48.3%)
Labour: 11585 (24.5%)
Lib Dem: 9711 (20.5%)
BNP: 1698 (3.6%)
UKIP: 1252 (2.6%)
Others: 219 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 11292 (23.9%)

Sitting MP: Pauline Latham (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Safe seat.

10. North East Derbyshire

2010 Result:
Conservative: 15503 (33%)
Labour: 17948 (38.2%)
Lib Dem: 10947 (23.3%)
UKIP: 2636 (5.6%)
MAJORITY: 2445 (5.2%)

Sitting MP: Natascha Engel (Lab)
Prediction: Increased Labour majority

11. South Derbyshire

2010 Result:
Conservative: 22935 (45.5%)
Labour: 15807 (31.4%)
Lib Dem: 8012 (15.9%)
BNP: 2193 (4.3%)
UKIP: 1206 (2.4%)
Others: 266 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 7128 (14.1%)

Sitting MP: Heather Wheeler (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Likely to be a smaller majority, but Heather Wheeler looks safe here.

To all see previous predictions. click HERE

Share:

1 comment

Sign up via Facebook or Twitter to comment.

Small_photo_13

Two Women Tell Iain About Finding Their Real Fathers

This happened during a discussion on paternity testing.

Listen now

General Election Predictions

Final General Election Predictions 24: Staffordshire

28 Apr 2015 at 09:06

Back in January I predicted the outcome of the General Election, seat by seat. Since then, I have done more research and altered some of the predictions taking into account various issues including new updated constituency polls by Lord Ashcroft. Over the next ten days I will be revisiting each county and region giving my final predictions. I’d still welcome feedback, even at this late stage.

STAFFORDSHIRE

Seats: 12
Current Political Makeup: Con 8, Lab 4
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 7, Lab 5
Final Prediction: Unchanged

1. Burton

2010 Result:
Conservative: 22188 (44.5%)
Labour: 15884 (31.9%)
Lib Dem: 7891 (15.8%)
BNP: 2409 (4.8%)
UKIP: 1451 (2.9%)
MAJORITY: 6304 (12.7%)

Sitting MP: Andrew Griffiths (Con)
Prediction: Narrow Conservative hold

Andrew Griffiths has made the constituency his priority and his hope will be that this strategy has paid off. He’s got a biger majority than Labour ever enjoyed during the years they held the seat between 1997 and 2010 and that’s why I think he’ll hand on. Just.

2. Cannock Chase

2010 Result:
Conservative: 18271 (40.1%)
Labour: 15076 (33.1%)
Lib Dem: 7732 (17%)
BNP: 2168 (4.8%)
UKIP: 1580 (3.5%)
Independent: 380 (0.8%)
Others: 352 (0.8%)
MAJORITY: 3195 (7%)

Sitting MP: Aidan Burley (Con)
Prediction: Narrow Labour gain

Burley his standing down after ‘Nazigate’ and this certainly will help the Labour cause. It’s not a lost cause for the Tories but the odds are that Labour will regain a seat they held from 1992 to 2010. UPDATE: UKIP got 33% here in June. But who will their votes be taken from?

3. Lichfield

2010 Result:
Conservative: 28048 (54.4%)
Labour: 10230 (19.8%)
Lib Dem: 10365 (20.1%)
UKIP: 2920 (5.7%)
MAJORITY: 17683 (34.3%)

Sitting MP: Michael Fabricant (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Safe seat.

4. Newcastle Under Lyme

2010 Result:
Conservative: 14841 (34.4%)
Labour: 16393 (38%)
Lib Dem: 8466 (19.6%)
UKIP: 3491 (8.1%)
MAJORITY: 1552 (3.6%)

Sitting MP: Paul Farrelly (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

This seat had a Labour majority of more than 17,000 in 1997. Given it’s only 1552 now, this seat must surely be in the Tories’ longterm sights. There’s a substantial LibDem vote for both parties to bite into. I would expect the majority of this to go to Labour, so Paul Farrelly’s majority ought to increase.

5. South Staffordshire

2010 Result:
Conservative: 26834 (53.2%)
Labour: 10244 (20.3%)
Lib Dem: 8427 (16.7%)
BNP: 1928 (3.8%)
UKIP: 2753 (5.5%)
Independent: 254 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 16590 (32.9%)

Sitting MP: Gavin Williamson (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Safe seat.

6. Stafford

2010 Result:
Conservative: 22047 (43.9%)
Labour: 16587 (33%)
Lib Dem: 8211 (16.3%)
BNP: 1103 (2.2%)
Green: 564 (1.1%)
UKIP: 1727 (3.4%)
MAJORITY: 5460 (10.9%)

Sitting MP: Jeremy Lefroy (Con)
Prediction: Narrow Conservative hold

This is a very difficult one to call. It was a Tory seat until 1997 and then went Labour until 2010. Staffordshire does seem to moving away from Labour and it has to be said that the local election results here don’t point towards very good results for Labour. I’m going with my gut instinct, which is a Tory hold but with a very small majority.

7. Staffordshire Moorlands

2010 Result:
Conservative: 19793 (45.2%)
Labour: 13104 (29.9%)
Lib Dem: 7338 (16.7%)
UKIP: 3580 (8.2%)
MAJORITY: 6689 (15.3%)

Sitting MP: Karen Bradley (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Another seat which Labour held during the Blair/Brown years. Overturning a majority of this size in one go might be beyond Labour this time.

8. Stoke on Trent Central

2010 Result:
Conservative: 6833 (21%)
Labour: 12605 (38.8%)
Lib Dem: 7039 (21.7%)
BNP: 2502 (7.7%)
UKIP: 1402 (4.3%)
TUSC: 133 (0.4%)
Independent: 959 (3%)
Others: 997 (3.1%)
MAJORITY: 5566 (17.1%)

Sitting MP: Tristram Hunt (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Realtively safe Labour seat, even though the majority doesn’t look that high.

9. Stoke on Trent North

2010 Result:
Conservative: 9580 (23.8%)
Labour: 17815 (44.3%)
Lib Dem: 7120 (17.7%)
BNP: 3196 (8%)
UKIP: 2485 (6.2%)
MAJORITY: 8235 (20.5%)

Sitting MP: Joan Walley (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

10. Stoke on Trent South

2010 Result:
Conservative: 11316 (28.4%)
Labour: 15446 (38.8%)
Lib Dem: 6323 (15.9%)
BNP: 3762 (9.4%)
UKIP: 1363 (3.4%)
Independent: 434 (1.1%)
Others: 1208 (3%)
MAJORITY: 4130 (10.4%)

Sitting MP: Robert Flello (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

11. Stone

2010 Result:
Conservative: 23890 (50.6%)
Labour: 9770 (20.7%)
Lib Dem: 10598 (22.4%)
Green: 490 (1%)
UKIP: 2481 (5.3%)
MAJORITY: 13292 (28.1%)

Sitting MP: Sir Bill Cash (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Safe seat.

12. Tamworth

2010 Result:
Conservative: 21238 (45.8%)
Labour: 15148 (32.7%)
Lib Dem: 7516 (16.2%)
UKIP: 2253 (4.9%)
Christian: 235 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 6090 (13.1%)

Sitting MP: Chris Pincher (Con)
Prediction: Narrow Conservative hold

Another former Labour seat which got a good sized Tory majority in 2010. It’s possible that Labour could take it back but all the electoral stars would need to align, including Labour gaining much of the former LibDem vote.

To all see previous predictions. click HERE

Share:

0 comments

Sign up via Facebook or Twitter to comment.

Small_watch

Video: Iain discusses spin with Andrew Neil and Alan Duncan

Daily Politics, October 2007

Listen now