General Election Predictions

Final General Election Predictions 47: Lincolnshire

30 Apr 2015 at 11:05

in January I predicted the outcome of the General Election, seat by seat. Since then, I have done more research and altered some of the predictions taking into account various issues including new updated constituency polls by Lord Ashcroft. Over the next ten days I will be revisiting each county and region giving my final predictions. I’d still welcome feedback, even at this late stage.

LINCOLNSHIRE

Seats: 7
Current Political Makeup: Con 7
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 5, Lab 1, UKIP 1
Final Prediction: Con 6, Lab 1

1. Boston & Skegness

2010 Result:
Conservative: 21325 (49.4%)
Labour: 8899 (20.6%)
Lib Dem: 6371 (14.8%)
BNP: 2278 (5.3%)
UKIP: 4081 (9.5%)
Independent: 171 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 12426 (28.8%)

Sitting MP: Mark Simmonds (Con)
Prediction: *UKIP
gain
Final Prediction: Conservative hold*

This is one of UKIP’s top targets. On the face of it, it’s a safe Tory seat, but a Survation poll in the constituency in September showed UKIP way ahead. Admittedly the sample size was only 596, but it will have shocked the local Conservative Party. The UKIP candidate is 22 year old Robin Hunter-Clarke. Strange to pick such an untested candidate, but at least he’s local. Mark Simmonds is standing down, complaining he can’t live on £120,000. If UKIP are to make a breakthrough, it might well be here. UPDATE: In the latest Ashcroft poll the Conservatives are three points ahead here. I am hearing that the UKIP campaign has not gone well. UKIP may still pull through but I now have my doubts.

2. Gainsborough

2010 Result:
Conservative: 24266 (49.3%)
Labour: 7701 (15.6%)
Lib Dem: 13707 (27.8%)
BNP: 1512 (3.1%)
UKIP: 2065 (4.2%)
MAJORITY: 10559 (21.4%)

Sitting MP: Sir Edward Leigh (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Safe seat.

3. Grantham & Stamford

2010 Result:
Conservative: 26552 (50.3%)
Labour: 9503 (18%)
Lib Dem: 11726 (22.2%)
BNP: 2485 (4.7%)
UKIP: 1604 (3%)
Others: 929 (1.8%)
MAJORITY: 14826 (28.1%)

Sitting MP: Nicholas Boles (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Safe seat.

4. Lincoln

2010 Result:
Conservative: 17163 (37.5%)
Labour: 16105 (35.2%)
Lib Dem: 9256 (20.2%)
BNP: 1367 (3%)
UKIP: 1004 (2.2%)
English Dem: 604 (1.3%)
Independent: 222 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 1058 (2.3%)

Sitting MP: Karl McCartney (Con)
Prediction: Labour gain

UKIP is hurting the Tories throughout Lincolnshire. In most of the other seats the majorities are large enough to cope with that, but not in Lincoln. This seat was Labour throughout the 13 Blair/Brown years and is likely to return that way in May.

5. Louth & Horncastle

2010 Result:
Conservative: 25065 (49.6%)
Labour: 8760 (17.3%)
Lib Dem: 11194 (22.2%)
BNP: 2199 (4.4%)
UKIP: 2183 (4.3%)
English Dem: 517 (1%)
Others: 576 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 13871 (27.5%)

Sitting MP: Sir Peter Tapsell (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Sir Peter Tapsell is standing down. Victoria Atkins will succeed him.

6. Sleaford & North Hykeham

2010 Result:
Conservative: 30719 (51.6%)
Labour: 10051 (16.9%)
Lib Dem: 10814 (18.2%)
BNP: 1977 (3.3%)
UKIP: 2163 (3.6%)
Others: 3806 (6.4%)
MAJORITY: 19905 (33.4%)

Sitting MP: Stephen Phillips (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Safe seat.

7. South Holland & the Deepings

2010 Result:
Conservative: 29639 (59.1%)
Labour: 7024 (14%)
Lib Dem: 7759 (15.5%)
BNP: 1796 (3.6%)
Green: 724 (1.4%)
UKIP: 3246 (6.5%)
MAJORITY: 21880 (43.6%)

Sitting MP: John Hayes (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Safe seat.

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE

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General Election Predictions

Final General Election Predictions 46: Nottinghamshire

30 Apr 2015 at 10:31

Back in January I predicted the outcome of the General Election, seat by seat. Since then, I have done more research and altered some of the predictions taking into account various issues including new updated constituency polls by Lord Ashcroft. Over the next ten days I will be revisiting each county and region giving my final predictions. I’d still welcome feedback, even at this late stage.

NOTTINGHAMSHIRE

Seats: 11
Current Political Makeup: Con 4, Lab 7
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 2, Lab 9

1. Ashfield

2010 Result:
Conservative: 10698 (22.2%)
Labour: 16239 (33.7%)
Lib Dem: 16047 (33.3%)
BNP: 2781 (5.8%)
UKIP: 933 (1.9%)
English Dem: 1102 (2.3%)
Independent: 396 (0.8%)
MAJORITY: 192 (0.4%)

Sitting MP: Gloria de Piero (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Quite how the LibDems nearly won this seat in 2010 I do not know. They went from 14% of the vote to 33%. The were going to field the same candidate but he has been arrested on suspicion of sexual offences. However, even if they throw the kitchen sink at Gloria de Piero I don’t think it will be enough. I expect her majority to increase by several thousand.

2. Bassetlaw

2010 Result:
Conservative: 16803 (33.9%)
Labour: 25018 (50.5%)
Lib Dem: 5570 (11.2%)
UKIP: 1779 (3.6%)
Independent: 407 (0.8%)
MAJORITY: 8215 (16.6%)

Sitting MP: John Mann (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

3. Broxtowe

2010 Result:
Conservative: 20585 (39%)
Labour: 20196 (38.3%)
Lib Dem: 8907 (16.9%)
BNP: 1422 (2.7%)
Green: 423 (0.8%)
UKIP: 1194 (2.3%)
MAJORITY: 389 (0.7%)

Sitting MP: Anna Soubry (Con)
Prediction: Labour gain

Another one of those seats where Labour has to win if Ed Miliband has any hope of gaining any sort power. Anna Soubry has been a star of the 2010-15 Parliament and it will be sad to see her lose.

4. Gedling

2010 Result:
Conservative: 17962 (37.3%)
Labour: 19821 (41.1%)
Lib Dem: 7350 (15.3%)
BNP: 1598 (3.3%)
UKIP: 1459 (3%)
MAJORITY: 1859 (3.9%)

Sitting MP: Vernon Coaker (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Ever since Labour won the seat from Andrew Mitchell in 1997 their hold on it has been somewhat precarious. Coaker will win again, but he will still have a few butterflies at the count.

5. Mansfield

2010 Result:
Conservative: 12741 (26.3%)
Labour: 18753 (38.7%)
Lib Dem: 7469 (15.4%)
BNP: 2108 (4.4%)
UKIP: 2985 (6.2%)
Others: 4339 (9%)
MAJORITY: 6012 (12.4%)

Sitting MP: Sir Alan Meale (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Labour are said to be nervous about UKIP eating into their vote here, but it is difficult to think this seat could return anything other than a Labour MP.

6. Newark

2010 Result:
Conservative: 27590 (53.9%)
Labour: 11438 (22.3%)
Lib Dem: 10246 (20%)
UKIP: 1954 (3.8%)
MAJORITY: 16152 (31.5%)

Sitting MP: Robert Jenrick (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Safe seat.

7. Nottingham East

2010 Result:
Conservative: 7846 (23.7%)
Labour: 15022 (45.4%)
Lib Dem: 8053 (24.3%)
Green: 928 (2.8%)
UKIP: 1138 (3.4%)
Christian: 125 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 6969 (21%)

Sitting MP: Chris Leslie (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Chris Leslie will be a big player in Labour’s future whatever the result of the next election. He will win again here.

8. Nottingham North

2010 Result:
Conservative: 8508 (24.8%)
Labour: 16646 (48.6%)
Lib Dem: 5849 (17.1%)
BNP: 1944 (5.7%)
UKIP: 1338 (3.9%)
MAJORITY: 8138 (23.7%)

Sitting MP: Graham Allen (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

9. Nottingham South

2010 Result:
Conservative: 13437 (32.9%)
Labour: 15209 (37.3%)
Lib Dem: 9406 (23.1%)
BNP: 1140 (2.8%)
Green: 630 (1.5%)
UKIP: 967 (2.4%)
MAJORITY: 1772 (4.3%)

Sitting MP: Lilian Greenwood (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Much will depend here on how the LibDem vote splinters. There is a strong Tory vote here and it should be remembered that until 1992 this was a Tory seat. The LibDem vote rose last time because of the student vote.

10. Rushcliffe

2010 Result:
Conservative: 27470 (51.2%)
Labour: 11128 (20.7%)
Lib Dem: 11659 (21.7%)
Green: 1251 (2.3%)
UKIP: 2179 (4.1%)
MAJORITY: 15811 (29.5%)

Sitting MP: Kenneth Clarke (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Safe seat.

11. Sherwood

2010 Result:
Conservative: 19211 (39.2%)
Labour: 18997 (38.8%)
Lib Dem: 7283 (14.9%)
BNP: 1754 (3.6%)
UKIP: 1490 (3%)
Independent: 219 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 214 (0.4%)

Sitting MP: Mark Spencer (Con)
Prediction: Labour gain

Mark Spencer did brilliantly to regain a seat the Tories last won in 1987 but it’s highly doubtful he can hang on to it in 2015.

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE

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General Election Predictions

Final General Election Predictions 45: Warwickshire

30 Apr 2015 at 09:24

Back in January I predicted the outcome of the General Election, seat by seat. Since then, I have done more research and altered some of the predictions taking into account various issues including new updated constituency polls by Lord Ashcroft. Over the next ten days I will be revisiting each county and region giving my final predictions. I’d still welcome feedback, even at this late stage.

WARWICKSHIRE

Seats: 6
Current Political Makeup: Con 6
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 4, Lab 2

1. Kenilworth & Southam

2010 Result:
Conservative: 25945 (53.6%)
Labour: 6949 (14.3%)
Lib Dem: 13393 (27.7%)
Green: 568 (1.2%)
UKIP: 1214 (2.5%)
Independent: 362 (0.7%)
MAJORITY: 12552 (25.9%)

Sitting MP: Jeremy Wright (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Safe seat.

2. North Warwickshire

2010 Result:
Conservative: 18993 (40.2%)
Labour: 18939 (40.1%)
Lib Dem: 5481 (11.6%)
BNP: 2106 (4.5%)
UKIP: 1335 (2.8%)
English Dem: 411 (0.9%)
MAJORITY: 54 (0.1%)

Sitting MP: Dan Byles (Con)
Prediction: Labour gain

Dan Byles is standing down, presumably because he saw the writing on the wall. Whatever chance the Tories had of retaining this most marginal of marginals probably disappeared with that decision.

3. Nuneaton

2010 Result:
Conservative: 18536 (41.5%)
Labour: 16467 (36.9%)
Lib Dem: 6846 (15.3%)
BNP: 2797 (6.3%)
MAJORITY: 2069 (4.6%)

Sitting MP: Marcus Jones (Con)
Prediction: Labour gain

UKIP didn’t stand here last time. The result in 2015 might well depend on whose votes they take. And Marcus Jones will know that.

4. Rugby

2010 Result:
Conservative: 20901 (44%)
Labour: 14901 (31.4%)
Lib Dem: 9434 (19.9%)
BNP: 1375 (2.9%)
Green: 451 (1%)
UKIP: 406 (0.9%)
MAJORITY: 6000 (12.6%)

Sitting MP: Mark Pawsey (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

This was a Labour seat between 1997 and 2005 but boundary changes shifted it in favour of the Tories. It’s likely to remain that way unless Ed Miliband gets a majority of 30-40.

5. Stratford on Avon

2010 Result:
Conservative: 26052 (51.5%)
Labour: 4809 (9.5%)
Lib Dem: 14706 (29.1%)
BNP: 1097 (2.2%)
Green: 527 (1%)
UKIP: 1846 (3.7%)
English Dem: 473 (0.9%)
Independent: 1032 (2%)
MAJORITY: 11346 (22.4%)

Sitting MP: Nadhim Zahawi (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Safe seat.

6. Warwick & Leamington

2010 Result:
Conservative: 20876 (42.6%)
Labour: 17363 (35.4%)
Lib Dem: 8977 (18.3%)
Green: 693 (1.4%)
UKIP: 926 (1.9%)
Independent: 197 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 3513 (7.2%)

Sitting MP: Chris White (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

The Ashcroft constituency poll points to a Tory hold. Looking at other factors like local election results, I’d find that difficult to argue with.

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE

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General Election Predictions

Final General Election Predictions 44: Shropshire

29 Apr 2015 at 22:31

Back in January I predicted the outcome of the General Election, seat by seat. Since then, I have done more research and altered some of the predictions taking into account various issues including new updated constituency polls by Lord Ashcroft. Over the next ten days I will be revisiting each county and region giving my final predictions. I’d still welcome feedback, even at this late stage.

SHROPSHIRE

Seats: 5
Current Political Makeup: Con 4, Lab 1
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 4, Lab 1
Final Prediction: Unchanged

1. Ludlow

2010 Result:
Conservative: 25720 (52.8%)
Labour: 3272 (6.7%)
Lib Dem: 15971 (32.8%)
BNP: 1016 (2.1%)
Green: 447 (0.9%)
UKIP: 2127 (4.4%)
Others: 179 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 9749 (20%)

Sitting MP: Philip Dunne (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Safe seat.

2. North Shropshire

2010 Result:
Conservative: 26692 (51.5%)
Labour: 9406 (18.1%)
Lib Dem: 10864 (20.9%)
BNP: 1667 (3.2%)
Green: 808 (1.6%)
UKIP: 2432 (4.7%)
MAJORITY: 15828 (30.5%)

Sitting MP: Owen Paterson (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Safe seat.

3. Shrewsbury & Atcham

2010 Result:
Conservative: 23313 (43.9%)
Labour: 10915 (20.6%)
Lib Dem: 15369 (29%)
BNP: 1168 (2.2%)
Green: 565 (1.1%)
UKIP: 1627 (3.1%)
Others: 88 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 7944 (15%)

Sitting MP: Daniel Kawczynski (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

This could be a four way marginal. UKIP’s deputy chairman, the impressive Suzanne Evans is standing here and UKIP think they could have a real impact on the result here. Labour are now in third place in a seat they held between 1997 and 2005.

4. Telford

2010 Result:
Conservative: 14996 (36.3%)
Labour: 15974 (38.7%)
Lib Dem: 6399 (15.5%)
BNP: 1513 (3.7%)
UKIP: 2428 (5.9%)
MAJORITY: 978 (2.4%)

Sitting MP: David Wright (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Very narrow hold for Labour last time. This is a seat where the Labour vote has plummeted from 58% to 39% since 1997. However, if the Tories didn’t win in 2010, can they really pull it off this time, especially given the interference of UKIP?

5. The Wrekin

2010 Result:
Conservative: 21922 (47.7%)
Labour: 12472 (27.1%)
Lib Dem: 8019 (17.4%)
BNP: 1505 (3.3%)
UKIP: 2050 (4.5%)
MAJORITY: 9450 (20.6%)

Sitting MP: Mark Pritchard (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Safe seat.

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE

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General Election Predictions

Final General Election Predictions 43: Herefordshire & Worcestershire

29 Apr 2015 at 22:00

Back in January I predicted the outcome of the General Election, seat by seat. Since then, I have done more research and altered some of the predictions taking into account various issues including new updated constituency polls by Lord Ashcroft. Over the next ten days I will be revisiting each county and region giving my final predictions. I’d still welcome feedback, even at this late stage.

HEREFORDSHIRE & WORCESTERSHIRE

Seats: 8
Current Political Makeup: Con 8
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 8
Final Prediction: Unchanged

1. Hereford & South Herefordshire

2010 Result:
Conservative: 22366 (46.2%)
Labour: 3506 (7.2%)
Lib Dem: 19885 (41.1%)
BNP: 986 (2%)
UKIP: 1638 (3.4%)
MAJORITY: 2481 (5.1%)

Sitting MP: Jesse Norman (Con)
Prediction: Increased Conservative majority

Jesse Norman toppled the LibDems here in 2010 and it’s hard to see a scenario where he doesn’t win again and win big. Labour are nowhere here but may attract back some LibDem voters

2. North Herefordshire

2010 Result:
Conservative: 24631 (51.8%)
Labour: 3373 (7.1%)
Lib Dem: 14744 (31%)
Green: 1533 (3.2%)
UKIP: 2701 (5.7%)
Independent: 586 (1.2%)
MAJORITY: 9887 (20.8%)

Sitting MP: Bill Wiggin (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Safe seat.

3. Bromsgrove

2010 Result:
Conservative: 22558 (43.7%)
Labour: 11250 (21.8%)
Lib Dem: 10124 (19.6%)
BNP: 1923 (3.7%)
UKIP: 2950 (5.7%)
Independent: 336 (0.7%)
Others: 2489 (4.8%)
MAJORITY: 11308 (21.9%)

Sitting MP: Sajid Javid (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Safe seat.

4. Mid Worcestershire

2010 Result:
Conservative: 27770 (54.5%)
Labour: 7613 (14.9%)
Lib Dem: 11906 (23.4%)
Green: 593 (1.2%)
UKIP: 3049 (6%)
MAJORITY: 15864 (31.1%)

Sitting MP: Sir Peter Luff (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Safe seat. Sir Peter Luff is standing down.

5. Redditch

2010 Result:
Conservative: 19138 (43.5%)
Labour: 13317 (30.3%)
Lib Dem: 7750 (17.6%)
BNP: 1394 (3.2%)
Green: 393 (0.9%)
UKIP: 1497 (3.4%)
English Dem: 255 (0.6%)
Christian: 101 (0.2%)
Independent: 100 (0.2%)
Others: 73 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 5821 (13.2%)

Sitting MP: Karen Lumley (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Karen Lumley won this marginal seat from Jacqui Smith in 2010 by a very good margin. She can be confident of holding it in May.

6. West Worcestershire

2010 Result:
Conservative: 27213 (50.3%)
Labour: 3661 (6.8%)
Lib Dem: 20459 (37.8%)
Green: 641 (1.2%)
UKIP: 2119 (3.9%)
MAJORITY: 6754 (12.5%)

Sitting MP: Harriett Baldwin (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

The LibDems put in a lot of effort in this seat in 2010 but it wasn’t to be. Harriett Baldwin will win again.

7. Worcester

2010 Result:
Conservative: 19358 (39.5%)
Labour: 16376 (33.4%)
Lib Dem: 9525 (19.4%)
BNP: 1219 (2.5%)
Green: 735 (1.5%)
UKIP: 1360 (2.8%)
Independent: 129 (0.3%)
Others: 272 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 2982 (6.1%)

Sitting MP: Robin Walker (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

This will be very very close. It’s 48th on Labour’s target list and a seat they need to win to form a majority. Local intelligence seems to be split but the majority of those in the know think Robin Walker will just pull through.

8. Wyre Forest

2010 Result:
Conservative: 18793 (36.9%)
Labour: 7298 (14.3%)
Lib Dem: 6040 (11.9%)
BNP: 1120 (2.2%)
UKIP: 1498 (2.9%)
Health Concern: 16150 (31.7%)
MAJORITY: 2643 (5.2%)

Sitting MP: Mark Garnier (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

The former seat of Independent MP Richard Taylor, who is standing again for the National Health Action Party. Labour got 49% here in 1997 but have dropped to 14%. Richard Taylor’s vote declined by 6.9% last time. I doubt he will regain the seat. UPDATE: UKIP are voting strongly here – five points behind the Tories.

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE

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General Election Predictions

Final General Election Predictions 42: Oxfordshire

29 Apr 2015 at 11:28

Back in January I predicted the outcome of the General Election, seat by seat. Since then, I have done more research and altered some of the predictions taking into account various issues including new updated constituency polls by Lord Ashcroft. Over the next ten days I will be revisiting each county and region giving my final predictions. I’d still welcome feedback, even at this late stage.

OXFORDSHIRE

Seats: 6
Current Political Makeup: Con 5, Lab 1
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 5, Lab 1
Final Prediction: Unchanged

1. Banbury

2010 Result:
Conservative: 29703 (52.8%)
Labour: 10773 (19.2%)
Lib Dem: 11476 (20.4%)
Green: 959 (1.7%)
UKIP: 2806 (5%)
Independent: 524 (0.9%)
MAJORITY: 18227 (32.4%)

Sitting MP: Sir Tony Baldry (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Safe seat. Sir Tony Baldry is standing down.

2. Henley

2010 Result:
Conservative: 30054 (56.2%)
Labour: 5835 (10.9%)
Lib Dem: 13466 (25.2%)
BNP: 1020 (1.9%)
Green: 1328 (2.5%)
UKIP: 1817 (3.4%)
MAJORITY: 16588 (31%)

Sitting MP: John Howell (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Safe seat.

3. Oxford East

2010 Result:
Conservative: 9727 (18.8%)
Labour: 21938 (42.5%)
Lib Dem: 17357 (33.6%)
Green: 1238 (2.4%)
UKIP: 1202 (2.3%)
Others: 189 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 4581 (8.9%)

Sitting MP: Andrew Smith (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Andrew Smith came within a whisker of losing this seat in 2005 but was safely home in 2010. He will be again.

4. Oxford West & Abingdon

2010 Result:
Conservative: 23906 (42.3%)
Labour: 5999 (10.6%)
Lib Dem: 23730 (42%)
Green: 1184 (2.1%)
UKIP: 1518 (2.7%)
Others: 143 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 176 (0.3%)

Sitting MP: Nicola Blackwood (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Slightly to her own surprise, I suspect, Nicola Blackwood beat Evan Harris in 2010 (thus gaining the thanks of many LibDems!) and I’d say is a dead cert to dramatically increase her majority in May. LibDems firmly believe they will retake the seat, but never seem to offer any firm reason as to why. The Labour vote has been squeezed to the pips and can’t reduce much further. The LibDems’only hope is for UKIP to take votes from Nicola Blackwood, but, well, how can I put it, is Oxford really the kind of place to vote UKIP?

5 Wantage

2010 Result:
Conservative: 29284 (52%)
Labour: 7855 (13.9%)
Lib Dem: 15737 (27.9%)
Green: 1044 (1.9%)
UKIP: 2421 (4.3%)
MAJORITY: 13547 (24%)

Sitting MP: Ed Vaizey (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Safe seat.

6. Witney

2010 Result:
Conservative: 33973 (58.8%)
Labour: 7511 (13%)
Lib Dem: 11233 (19.4%)
Green: 2385 (4.1%)
UKIP: 2001 (3.5%)
Independent: 166 (0.3%)
Others: 500 (0.9%)
MAJORITY: 22740 (39.4%)

Sitting MP: David Cameron (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Safe seat.

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE

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General Election Predictions

Final General Election Predictions 41: South Glamorgan

29 Apr 2015 at 10:21

Back in January I predicted the outcome of the General Election, seat by seat. Since then, I have done more research and altered some of the predictions taking into account various issues including new updated constituency polls by Lord Ashcroft. Over the next ten days I will be revisiting each county and region giving my final predictions. I’d still welcome feedback, even at this late stage.

SOUTH GLAMPORGAN

Seats: 5
Current Political Makeup: Con 2, Lab 2, LibDem 1
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 1, Lab 4
Final Prediction: Unchanged

1. Cardiff Central

2010 Result:
Conservative: 7799 (21.6%)
Labour: 10400 (28.8%)
Lib Dem: 14976 (41.4%)
Plaid Cymru: 1246 (3.4%)
Green: 575 (1.6%)
UKIP: 765 (2.1%)
TUSC: 162 (0.4%)
Independent: 86 (0.2%)
Others: 142 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 4576 (12.7%)

Sitting MP: Jenny Willott (LibDem)
Prediction: Labour gain

Most pundits seem convinced this is a surefire Labour gain. I’m going with the flow here, but I am not 100% sure. Willott could benefit from some Tory tactical voting to keep Labour out. In addition, although UKIP aren’t strong in Cardiff, they could take votes away from Labour as well as the Tories, just as they are sure to do in North Wales. Jenny Willott shouldn’t give up the day job quite yet, but she’s in for the fight of her life.

2. Cardiff North

2010 Result:
Conservative: 17860 (37.5%)
Labour: 17666 (37.1%)
Lib Dem: 8724 (18.3%)
Plaid Cymru: 1588 (3.3%)
Green: 362 (0.8%)
UKIP: 1130 (2.4%)
Christian: 300 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 194 (0.4%)

Sitting MP: Jonathan Evans (Con)
Prediction: Labour gain

I’m not sure any comment is necessary here. This has to be a surefire Labour gain. Just look at the figures.

3. Cardiff South & Penarth

2010 Result:
Conservative: 12553 (28.3%)
Labour: 17262 (38.9%)
Lib Dem: 9875 (22.3%)
Plaid Cymru: 1851 (4.2%)
Green: 554 (1.2%)
UKIP: 1145 (2.6%)
Christian: 285 (0.6%)
Independent: 648 (1.5%)
Others: 196 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 4709 (10.6%)

Sitting MP: Stephen Doughty (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

No change here.

4. Cardiff West

2010 Result:
Conservative: 12143 (29.6%)
Labour: 16894 (41.2%)
Lib Dem: 7186 (17.5%)
Plaid Cymru: 2868 (7%)
Green: 750 (1.8%)
UKIP: 1117 (2.7%)
MAJORITY: 4751 (11.6%)

Sitting MP: Kevin Brennan (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Kevin Brennan won’t have anything to worry about.

5. Vale of Glamorgan

2010 Result:
Conservative: 20341 (41.8%)
Labour: 16034 (32.9%)
Lib Dem: 7403 (15.2%)
Plaid Cymru: 2667 (5.5%)
Green: 457 (0.9%)
UKIP: 1529 (3.1%)
Christian: 236 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 4307 (8.8%)

Sitting MP: Alun Cairns (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

All the pundits tip this seat to remain Tory and I’m not going to buck the trend. Local Tories think UKIP will depress the Labour vote more than their own. We’ll soon see how right they are.

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE

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General Election Predictions

Final General Election Predictions 40: West Glamorgan

29 Apr 2015 at 10:14

Back in January I predicted the outcome of the General Election, seat by seat. Since then, I have done more research and altered some of the predictions taking into account various issues including new updated constituency polls by Lord Ashcroft. Over the next ten days I will be revisiting each county and region giving my final predictions. I’d still welcome feedback, even at this late stage.

WEST GLAMORGAN

Seats: 5
Current Political Makeup: Lab 5
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Lab 5
Final Prediction: Unchanged

1. Aberavon

2010 Result:
Conservative: 4411 (14.2%)
Labour: 16073 (51.9%)
Lib Dem: 5034 (16.3%)
Plaid Cymru: 2198 (7.1%)
BNP: 1276 (4.1%)
UKIP: 489 (1.6%)
Independent: 919 (3%)
Others: 558 (1.8%)
MAJORITY: 11039 (35.7%)

Sitting MP: Hywel Francis (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

2. Gower

2010 Result:
Conservative: 13333 (32%)
Labour: 16016 (38.4%)
Lib Dem: 7947 (19.1%)
Plaid Cymru: 2760 (6.6%)
BNP: 963 (2.3%)
UKIP: 652 (1.6%)
MAJORITY: 2683 (6.4%)

Sitting MP: Martin Caton (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

The Tories have always eyed this seat but haven’t managed to win it. Their only hope this time is that UKIp takes votes away from Labour and they’re not replaced by former LibDem voters. I think they need to pray rather than hope.

3. Neath

2010 Result:
Conservative: 4847 (13.1%)
Labour: 17172 (46.3%)
Lib Dem: 5535 (14.9%)
Plaid Cymru: 7397 (19.9%)
BNP: 1342 (3.6%)
UKIP: 829 (2.2%)
MAJORITY: 9775 (26.3%)

Sitting MP: Peter Hain (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat even though Peter Hain is retiring.

4. Swansea East

2010 Result:
Conservative: 4823 (14.8%)
Labour: 16819 (51.5%)
Lib Dem: 5981 (18.3%)
Plaid Cymru: 2181 (6.7%)
BNP: 1715 (5.2%)
Green: 318 (1%)
UKIP: 839 (2.6%)
MAJORITY: 10838 (33.2%)

Sitting MP: Sian James (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat. Sian James is standing down.

5. Swansea West

2010 Result:
Conservative: 7407 (20.8%)
Labour: 12335 (34.7%)
Lib Dem: 11831 (33.2%)
Plaid Cymru: 1437 (4%)
BNP: 910 (2.6%)
Green: 404 (1.1%)
UKIP: 716 (2%)
TUSC: 179 (0.5%)
Independent: 374 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 504 (1.4%

Sitting MP: Geraint Davies (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

The LibDems came within a whisker of winning this seat last time and this is one their main hopes in 2015. Tactical voting by Conservatives may aid and abett them, and they will hope that UKIP leech off some traditional Labour support, but there are too many ‘ifs’ here to be confident of predicting an upset.

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE

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General Election Predictions

Final General Election Predictions 39: Mid Glamorgan

29 Apr 2015 at 10:10

Back in January I predicted the outcome of the General Election, seat by seat. Since then, I have done more research and altered some of the predictions taking into account various issues including new updated constituency polls by Lord Ashcroft. Over the next ten days I will be revisiting each county and region giving my final predictions. I’d still welcome feedback, even at this late stage.

MID GLAMORGAN

Seats: 5
Current Political Makeup: Lab 5
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Lab 5
Final Prediction: Unchanged

1. Bridgend

2010 Result:
Conservative: 11668 (30.4%)
Labour: 13931 (36.3%)
Lib Dem: 8658 (22.6%)
Plaid Cymru: 2269 (5.9%)
BNP: 1020 (2.7%)
UKIP: 801 (2.1%)
MAJORITY: 2263 (5.9%)

Sitting MP: Madeleine Moon (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

The only way Labour will lose here is if the LibDem vote goes to the Tories rather than Labour. Unlikely. UKIP didn’t poll much here last time and it will be interesting to see if they influence the outcome.

2. Cynon Valley

2010 Result:
Conservative: 3010 (10.1%)
Labour: 15681 (52.5%)
Lib Dem: 4120 (13.8%)
Plaid Cymru: 6064 (20.3%)
UKIP: 1001 (3.4%)
MAJORITY: 9617 (32.2%)

Sitting MP: Ann Clwyd (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat

4. Ogmore

2010 Result:
Conservative: 5398 (15.6%)
Labour: 18644 (53.8%)
Lib Dem: 5260 (15.2%)
Plaid Cymru: 3326 (9.6%)
BNP: 1242 (3.6%)
UKIP: 780 (2.3%)
MAJORITY: 13246 (38.2%)

Sitting MP: Huw Irranca-Davies (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

5. Pontypridd

2010 Result:
Conservative: 5932 (16.2%)
Labour: 14220 (38.8%)
Lib Dem: 11435 (31.2%)
Plaid Cymru: 2673 (7.3%)
Green: 361 (1%)
UKIP: 1229 (3.4%)
Christian: 365 (1%)
Others: 456 (1.2%)
MAJORITY: 2785 (7.6%)

Sitting MP: Owen Smith (Lab)
Prediction: Increased Labour majority

A big LibDem vote for Labour to eat into. Owen Smith will also benefit from his media exposure as Labour’s Shadow Welsh Secretary.

6. Rhondda

2010 Result:
Conservative: 1993 (6.4%)
Labour: 17183 (55.3%)
Lib Dem: 3309 (10.6%)
Plaid Cymru: 5630 (18.1%)
UKIP: 358 (1.2%)
Independent: 2599 (8.4%)
MAJORITY: 11553 (37.2%)

Sitting MP: Chris Bryant (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat. Having said that, according to Goodwin & Ford this is UKIP’s number 1 Labour target seat. They might reduce Chris Bryant’s majority, but they won’t pick him off.

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE

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General Election Predictions

Final General Election Predictions 38: Wales Dyfed

29 Apr 2015 at 09:56

Back in January I predicted the outcome of the General Election, seat by seat. Since then, I have done more research and altered some of the predictions taking into account various issues including new updated constituency polls by Lord Ashcroft. Over the next ten days I will be revisiting each county and region giving my final predictions. I’d still welcome feedback, even at this late stage.

DYFED

Seats: 5
Current Political Makeup: Con 2, Lab 1, LibDem 1, PC 1
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 2, Lab 1, LibDem 1, PC 1
*Final Prediction: *Con 2, Lab 1, PC 2

1. Carmarthen East & Dinefwr

2010 Result:
Conservative: 8506 (22.4%)
Labour: 10065 (26.5%)
Lib Dem: 4609 (12.1%)
Plaid Cymru: 13546 (35.6%)
UKIP: 1285 (3.4%)
MAJORITY: 3481 (9.2%)

Sitting MP: Jonathan Edwards (PC)
Prediction: Plaid Cymru hold

A Labour win here is possible but unlikely.

2. Carmarthen West & South Pembrokeshire

2010 Result:
Conservative: 16649 (41.1%)
Labour: 13226 (32.7%)
Lib Dem: 4890 (12.1%)
Plaid Cymru: 4232 (10.4%)
UKIP: 1146 (2.8%)
Independent: 364 (0.9%)
MAJORITY: 3423 (8.5%)

Sitting MP: Simon Hart (Con)
Prediction: Narrow Conservative hold

A difficult one to call but I’m going for a narrow Tory hold based on the fact that the Labour vote has declined here at every election since 1997 and the Tory vote has gone in the opposite direction. The Ashcroft marginal seats poll shows the Conservatives outperforming the rest of Wales here too..

3. Ceredigion

2010 Result:
Conservative: 4421 (11.6%)
Labour: 2210 (5.8%)
Lib Dem: 19139 (50%)
Plaid Cymru: 10815 (28.3%)
Green: 696 (1.8%)
UKIP: 977 (2.6%)
MAJORITY: 8324 (21.8%)

Sittting MP: Mark Williams (LibDem)
Prediction: *LibDem
hold
Revised Prediction: Plaid Cymru gain*

Plaid Cymru seem to be very confident they can take back this seat, which they unexpectedly lost in 2005. The LibDems will be badly affected by the loss of the student vote in Aberystwyth and Lampeter, but it’s difficult to work out how badly. I still think it’s a big call to predict anything other than a narrowish LibDem hold here, but I may well be proved wrong. UPDATE: I had a flood of correspondence suggesting I have got this wrong. Looking at some of the Welsh blogs and academic websites I’m tempted to agree. Plaid Cymru seem to be very confident they can take back this seat, which they unexpectedly lost in 2005. The LibDems will be badly affected by the loss of the student vote in Aberystwyth and Lampeter, but it’s difficult to work out how badly. I still think it’s a big call to predict anything other than a narrowish LibDem hold here, but I may well be proved wrong.

4. Llanelli

2010 Result:
Conservative: 5381 (14.4%)
Labour: 15916 (42.5%)
Lib Dem: 3902 (10.4%)
Plaid Cymru: 11215 (29.9%)
UKIP: 1047 (2.8%)
MAJORITY: 4701 (12.5%)

Sitting MP: Nia Griffith (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Plaid are in a good second place here but there’s no reason to think they could take enough votes from the other parties to win here.

5. Preseli Pembrokeshire

2010 Result:
Conservative: 16944 (42.8%)
Labour: 12339 (31.2%)
Lib Dem: 5759 (14.5%)
Plaid Cymru: 3654 (9.2%)
UKIP: 906 (2.3%)
MAJORITY: 4605 (11.6%)

Sitting MP: Stephen Crabb (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Crabb has built up a decent majority here and Labour will find him difficult to shift. However, they will hark back to 1992 when Nick Ainger overturned a majority of more than 5,000 to oust Tory minister Nicholas Bennett. But this will be Crabb’s fourth election and I suspect he will have built up quite a large personal vote. His cabinet status is also a boost.

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE

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