General Election Predictions

General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 50. Lincolnshire

2 May 2017 at 21:42

LINCOLNSHIRE

Seats: 7
Current Political Makeup: Con 7
Predicted Political Makeup after June 8: Con 7

1. Boston & Skegness

2010 Result:
Conservative: 21325 (49.4%)
Labour: 8899 (20.6%)
Lib Dem: 6371 (14.8%)
BNP: 2278 (5.3%)
UKIP: 4081 (9.5%)
Independent: 171 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 12426 (28.8%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Matt Warman 18,981 43.8 -5.7
UKIP Robin Hunter-Clarke 14,645 33.8 +24.3
Labour Paul Kenny 7,142 16.5 -4.2
Liberal Democrat David Watts 1,015 2.3 -12.4
Green Victoria Percival 800 1.8 N/A
An Independence from Europe Chris Pain 324 0.7 N/A
Independent Peter Johnson 170 0.4 N/A
The Pilgrim Party Lyn Luxton 143 0.3 N/A
BNP Robert West 119 0.3 -5.0
Majority 4,336 10.0 -18.8
Turnout 43,339 63.9 +2.8

Leave Vote: 75.6%

Sitting MP: Matt Warman (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

This is Britain’s most Brexit oriented seat, and it has a Remain supporting Tory MP in Matt Warman. UKIP leader Paul Nuttall is standing here and will have high hopes given a majority of only a tad more than 4,000. However, he’s got his work cut out given that he’s the leader of a political party and won’t be able to spend all his time on local campaigning. A lot will depend on how many locals consider Brexit to be the most important issue they’re voting on. I think Matt Warman will hang on if the Tory campaign remains geared towards giving Theresa May a strong mandate.

2. Gainsborough

2010 Result:
Conservative: 24266 (49.3%)
Labour: 7701 (15.6%)
Lib Dem: 13707 (27.8%)
BNP: 1512 (3.1%)
UKIP: 2065 (4.2%)
MAJORITY: 10559 (21.4%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Edward Leigh 25,949 52.7 +3.4
Labour David Prescott 10,500 21.3 +5.7
UKIP John Saxon6 7,727 15.7 +11.5
Liberal Democrat Lesley Rollings 3,290 6.7 -21.2
Green Geoff Barnes 1,290 2.6 +2.6
Lincolnshire Independent Chris Darcel 505 1.0 +1.0
Majority 15,449 31.4 +10.0
Turnout 48,261 67.3 -1.0

Leave Vote: 62%

Sitting MP: Sir Edward Leigh (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

3. Grantham & Stamford

2010 Result:
Conservative: 26552 (50.3%)
Labour: 9503 (18%)
Lib Dem: 11726 (22.2%)
BNP: 2485 (4.7%)
UKIP: 1604 (3%)
Others: 929 (1.8%)
MAJORITY: 14826 (28.1%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Nick Boles11 28,399 52.8 +2.5
UKIP Marietta King 9,410 17.5 +14.5
Labour Barrie Fairbairn 9,070 16.9 −1.1
Liberal Democrat Harrish Bisnauthsing 3,263 6.1 −16.1
Green Aidan Campbell 1,872 3.5 N/A
Independent Ian Selby 1,017 1.9 N/A
Lincolnshire Independent Jan Hansen 724 1.3 −0.4
Majority 18,989 35.3 +7.2
Turnout 53,755 66.2 −1.8

Leave Vote: 61%

Sitting MP: Nicholas Boles (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

4. Lincoln

2010 Result:
Conservative: 17163 (37.5%)
Labour: 16105 (35.2%)
Lib Dem: 9256 (20.2%)
BNP: 1367 (3%)
UKIP: 1004 (2.2%)
English Dem: 604 (1.3%)
Independent: 222 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 1058 (2.3%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Karl McCartney 19,976 42.6 +5.1
Labour Lucy Rigby 18,533 39.6 +4.3
UKIP Nick Smith 5,721 12.2 +10.0
Liberal Democrat Ross Pepper 1,992 4.3 -16.0
TUSC Elaine Smith 344 0.7 +0.7
Lincolnshire Independent Helen Powell 286 0.6 +0.6
Majority 1,443 3.1
Turnout 46,852 63.2

Leave Vote: 57.4%

Sitting MP: Karl McCartney (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

In 2015 I predicted Karl McCartney would lose. He didn’t and if he didn’t lose then, there’s no reason to think he will this time unless there has been a huge demographic change which I am not aware of.

5. Louth & Horncastle

2010 Result:
Conservative: 25065 (49.6%)
Labour: 8760 (17.3%)
Lib Dem: 11194 (22.2%)
BNP: 2199 (4.4%)
UKIP: 2183 (4.3%)
English Dem: 517 (1%)
Others: 576 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 13871 (27.5%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Victoria Atkins6 25,755 51.2 +1.5
UKIP Colin Mair 10,778 21.4 +17.1
Labour Matthew Jason Brown 9,077 18.0 +0.7
Liberal Democrat Lisa Gabriel 2,255 4.5 -17.7
Green Romy Rayner 1,549 3.1 +3.1
Lincolnshire Independent Daniel Simpson 659 1.3 +0.2
Monster Raving Loony Peter Hill7 263 0.5 +0.5
Majority 14,977 29.8
Turnout 50,336 67.8

Leave Vote: 68.9%

Sitting MP: Victoria Atkins (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

6. Sleaford & North Hykeham

2010 Result:
Conservative: 30719 (51.6%)
Labour: 10051 (16.9%)
Lib Dem: 10814 (18.2%)
BNP: 1977 (3.3%)
UKIP: 2163 (3.6%)
Others: 3806 (6.4%)
MAJORITY: 19905 (33.4%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Stephen Phillips 34,805 56.2 +4.6
Labour Jason Pandya-Wood 10,690 17.3 +0.4
UKIP Steven Hopkins 9,716 15.7 +12.1
Liberal Democrat Matthew Holden 3,500 5.7 -12.5
Lincolnshire Independent Marianne Overton 3,233 5.2 -1.2
Majority 24,115 38.9
Turnout 61,944 70.2

Leave Vote: 61.6%

Sitting MP: Caroline Johnson (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

7. South Holland & the Deepings

2010 Result:
Conservative: 29639 (59.1%)
Labour: 7024 (14%)
Lib Dem: 7759 (15.5%)
BNP: 1796 (3.6%)
Green: 724 (1.4%)
UKIP: 3246 (6.5%)
MAJORITY: 21880 (43.6%)

2015 Result:
Conservative John Hayes 29,303 59.6 +0.5
UKIP David Parsons6 10,736 21.8 +15.4
Labour Matthew Mahabadi 6,122 12.4 -1.6
Green Daniel Wilshire7 1,580 3.2 +1.8
Liberal Democrat George Smid8 1,466 3.0 -12.5
Majority 18,567 37.7
Turnout 49,207 63.9

Leave Vote: 71.1%

Sitting MP: John Hayes (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

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General Election Predictions

General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 49. Oxfordshire

1 May 2017 at 22:57

OXFORDSHIRE

Seats: 6
Current Political Makeup: Con 5, Lab 1
Predicted Political Makeup after June 8: Con 5, Lab 1

1. Banbury

2010 Result:
Conservative: 29703 (52.8%)
Labour: 10773 (19.2%)
Lib Dem: 11476 (20.4%)
Green: 959 (1.7%)
UKIP: 2806 (5%)
Independent: 524 (0.9%)
MAJORITY: 18227 (32.4%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Victoria Prentis16 30,749 53.0 +0.2
Labour Sean Woodcock 12,354 21.3 +2.1
UKIP Dickie Bird17 8,050 13.9 +8.9
Liberal Democrat John Howson 3,440 5.9 -14.5
Green Ian Middleton18 2,686 4.6 +2.9
National Health Action Roseanne Edwards 729 1.3 N/A
Majority 18,395 31.7 -0.7
Turnout 58,008 65.619 +0.9

Leave Vote 50.1%

Sitting MP: Victoria Prentis (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

2. Henley

2010 Result:
Conservative: 30054 (56.2%)
Labour: 5835 (10.9%)
Lib Dem: 13466 (25.2%)
BNP: 1020 (1.9%)
Green: 1328 (2.5%)
UKIP: 1817 (3.4%)
MAJORITY: 16588 (31%)

2015 Result:
Conservative John Howell6 32,292 58.5 +2.3
Labour Sam Juthani7 6,917 12.5 +1.6
Liberal Democrat Sue Cooper8 6,205 11.2 -13.9
UKIP Christopher Jones9 6,007 10.9 +7.5
Green Mark Stevenson10 3,815 6.9 +4.4
Majority 25,375 45.9
Turnout 55,236 70.9 -0.5

Leave Vote: 43.1%

Sitting MP: John Howell (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

3. Oxford East

2010 Result:
Conservative: 9727 (18.8%)
Labour: 21938 (42.5%)
Lib Dem: 17357 (33.6%)
Green: 1238 (2.4%)
UKIP: 1202 (2.3%)
Others: 189 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 4581 (8.9%)

2015 Result:
Labour Andrew Smith 25,356 50.0 +7.5
Conservative Melanie Magee 10,076 19.9 +1.0
Green Ann Duncan8 5,890 11.6 +9.2
Liberal Democrat Alasdair Murray9 5,453 10.8 -22.8
UKIP Ian Macdonald10 3,451 6.8 +4.5
Independent Chaka Artwell11 160 0.3 +0.3
Monster Raving Loony Mad Hatter11 145 0.3 +0.3
TUSC James Morbin12 108 0.2 +0.2
Socialist (GB) Kevin Parkin13 50 0.1 +0.1
Majority 15,280 30.1
Turnout 64.214

Sitting MP: Andrew Smith (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

4. Oxford West & Abingdon

2010 Result:
Conservative: 23906 (42.3%)
Labour: 5999 (10.6%)
Lib Dem: 23730 (42%)
Green: 1184 (2.1%)
UKIP: 1518 (2.7%)
Others: 143 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 176 (0.3%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Nicola Blackwood 26,153 45.7 +3.4
Liberal Democrat Layla Moran 16,571 28.9 −13.1
Labour Sally Copley 7,274 12.7 +2.1
UKIP Alan Harris 3,963 6.9 +4.2
Green Larry Sanders 2,497 4.4 +2.3
National Health Action Helen Salisbury 723 1.3 N/A
Socialist (GB) Mike Foster 66 0.1 N/A
Majority 9,582 16.7
Turnout 57,247 75.2 +5.0

Leave Vote: 38%

Sitting MP: Nicola Blackwood (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

5 Wantage

2010 Result:
Conservative: 29284 (52%)
Labour: 7855 (13.9%)
Lib Dem: 15737 (27.9%)
Green: 1044 (1.9%)
UKIP: 2421 (4.3%)
MAJORITY: 13547 (24%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Ed Vaizey 31,092 53.3 +1.3
Labour Stephen Webb 9,343 16.0 +2.1
Liberal Democrat Alex Meredith 7,611 13.1 -14.9
UKIP Lee Upcraft 7,288 12.5 +8.2
Green Kate Prendergast 2,986 5.1 +3.3
Majority 21,749 37.3 +17.2
Turnout 58,320 70.3 +0.3

Leave Vote: 46.5%

Sitting MP: Ed Vaizey (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

6. Witney

2010 Result:
Conservative: 33973 (58.8%)
Labour: 7511 (13%)
Lib Dem: 11233 (19.4%)
Green: 2385 (4.1%)
UKIP: 2001 (3.5%)
Independent: 166 (0.3%)
Others: 500 (0.9%)
MAJORITY: 22740 (39.4%)

2015 Result:
Conservative David Cameron 35,201 60.2 +1.4
Labour Duncan Enright 10,046 17.2 +4.2
UKIP Simon Strutt 5,352 9.2 +5.7
Liberal Democrat Andy Graham 3,953 6.8 −12.7
Green Stuart MacDonald 2,970 5.1 +0.9
National Health Action Clive Peedell 616 1.1 N/A
Wessex Regionalist Colin Bex 110 0.2 +0.1
Independent Christopher Tompson 94 0.2 N/A
Reduce VAT in Sport Vivien Saunders 56 0.1 N/A
Give Me Back Elmo Bobby Smith 37 0.1 N/A
Land Party Deek Jackson 35 0.1 N/A
Independent Nathan Handley 12 0.02 N/A
Majority 25,155 43 +3.6
Turnout 58,482 73.3 +0.0

Sitting MP: Robert Courts (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

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General Election Predictions

General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 48: East Yorkshire & Humberside

1 May 2017 at 22:24

EAST YORKSHIRE & HUMBERSIDE

Seats: 10
Current Political Makeup: Con 5, Lab 5
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 7, Labour 3

1. Beverley & Holderness

2010 Result:
Conservative: 25063 (47.1%)
Labour: 11224 (21.1%)
Lib Dem: 12076 (22.7%)
BNP: 2080 (3.9%)
Green: 686 (1.3%)
UKIP: 1845 (3.5%)
Independent: 225 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 12987 (24.4%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Graham Stuart 25,363 48.1 +1.0
Labour Margaret Pinder 13,160 25.0 +3.9
UKIP Gary Shores 8,794 16.7 +13.2
Liberal Democrat Denis Healy 2,900 5.5 -17.2
Green Richard Howarth 1,802 3.4 +2.1
Yorkshire First Lee Walton 658 1.2 +1.2
Majority 12,203 23.2
Turnout 52,677 65.2

Leave Vote: 58.7%

Sitting MP: Graham Stuart (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

2. Brigg & Goole

2010 Result:
Conservative: 19680 (44.9%)
Labour: 14533 (33.1%)
Lib Dem: 6414 (14.6%)
BNP: 1498 (3.4%)
UKIP: 1749 (4%)
MAJORITY: 5147 (11.7%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Andrew Percy 22,946 53.0 +8.2
Labour Jacky Crawford 11,770 27.2 -5.9
UKIP David Jeffreys 6,694 15.5 +11.5
Green Natalie Hurst 915 2.1 +2.1
Liberal Democrat Liz Leffman 764 1.8 -12.9
Independent Trevor Dixon 153 0.4 +0.4
An Independence from Europe Ray Spalding 28 0.1 +0.1
Majority 11,176 25.8
Turnout 43,270 63.2

Leave Vote: 66.2%

Sitting MP: Andrew Percy (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

3. Cleethorpes

2010 Result:
Conservative: 18939 (42.1%)
Labour: 14641 (32.6%)
Lib Dem: 8192 (18.2%)
UKIP: 3194 (7.1%)
MAJORITY: 4298 (9.6%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Martin Vickers 21,026 46.6 +4.5
Labour Peter Keith 13,133 29.1 -3.4
UKIP Stephen Harness 8,356 18.5 +11.4
Liberal Democrat Roy Horobin 1,346 3.0 -15.2
Green Carol Thornton 1,013 2.2 +2.2
TUSC Malcolm Morland 215 0.5 +0.5
Majority 7,893 17.5
Turnout 45,089 63.9

Leave Vote: 69.5%

Sitting MP: Martin Vickers (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

4. East Yorkshire

2010 Result:
Conservative: 24328 (47.5%)
Labour: 10401 (20.3%)
Lib Dem: 10842 (21.2%)
BNP: 1865 (3.6%)
Green: 762 (1.5%)
UKIP: 2142 (4.2%)
Others: 914 (1.8%)
MAJORITY: 13486 (26.3%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Greg Knight 25,276 50.6 +3.1
Labour Kevin Hickson 10,343 20.7 +0.4
UKIP Steph Todd 8,955 17.9 +13.7
Liberal Democrat Robert Adamson 2,966 5.9 -15.2
Green Mark Maloney 1,731 3.5 +2.0
Yorkshire First Stewart Arnold 720 1.4 +1.4
Majority 14,933 29.9 +3.6
Turnout 49,991 61.7 -2.1

Leave Vote: 63.7%

Sitting MP: Greg Knight (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

5. Great Grimsby

Conservative: 10063 (30.5%)
Labour: 10777 (32.7%)
Lib Dem: 7388 (22.4%)
BNP: 1517 (4.6%)
UKIP: 2043 (6.2%)
Independent: 835 (2.5%)
Others: 331 (1%)
MAJORITY: 714 (2.2%)

2015 Result:
Labour Melanie Onn 13,414 39.8 +7.1
Conservative Marc Jones 8,874 26.3 −4.2
UKIP Victoria Ayling 8,417 25.0 +18.8
Liberal Democrat Steve Beasant 1,680 5.0 −17.4
Green Vicky Dunn 783 2.3 +2.3
Independent Gary Calder 390 1.2 +1.2
TUSC Val O’Flynn 173 0.5 +0.5
Majority 4,540 13.5 +11.3
Turnout 33,731 57.7 +3.9

Leave Vote: 69.2%

Sitting MP: Melanie Onn (Lab)
Prediction: Conservative gain

In 2010 the Conservatives came very close to taking this seat. The Tory candidate then switched to UKIP and stood in 2015. She’s been replaced this time by one of their MEPs, Mike Hookem. If the Conservatives don’t win this seat this time they never will. I suspect it’ll happen.

6. Haltemprice & Howden

2010 Result:
Conservative: 24486 (50.2%)
Labour: 7630 (15.7%)
Lib Dem: 12884 (26.4%)
BNP: 1583 (3.2%)
Green: 669 (1.4%)
English Dem: 1485 (3%)
MAJORITY: 11602 (23.8%)

2015 Result
Conservative David Davis 26,414 54.2 +3.9
Labour Edward Hart 10,219 21.0 +5.3
UKIP John Kitchener 6,781 13.9 N/A
Liberal Democrat Carl Minns 3,055 6.3 -20.2
Green Tim Greene 1,809 3.7 +2.3
Yorkshire First Diana Wallis 479 1.0 N/A
Majority 16,195 33.2
Turnout 48,757 68.5

Leave Vote: 55.2%

Sitting MP: David Davis (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

7. Hull East

2010 Result:
Conservative: 5667 (16.6%)
Labour: 16387 (47.9%)
Lib Dem: 7790 (22.8%)
UKIP: 2745 (8%)
English Dem: 715 (2.1%)
Others: 880 (2.6%)
MAJORITY: 8597 (25.1%)

2015 Result:
Labour Karl Turner 18,180 51.7 +3.8
UKIP Richard Barrett 7,861 22.4 +14.3
Conservative Christine Mackay 5,593 15.9 -0.7
Liberal Democrat David Nolan 2,294 6.5 -16.3
Green Sarah Walpole 806 2.3 +2.3
Yorkshire First Martin Clayton 270 0.8 +0.8
National Front Mike Cooper 86 0.2 -2.3
Social Democratic Val Hoodless 54 0.2 +0.2
Majority 10,319 29.4
Turnout 35,144 53.6

Leave Vote: 72.8%

Sitting MP: Karl Turner (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

8. Hull North

2010 Result:
Conservative: 4365 (13.1%)
Labour: 13044 (39.2%)
Lib Dem: 12403 (37.3%)
BNP: 1443 (4.3%)
Green: 478 (1.4%)
UKIP: 1358 (4.1%)
English Dem: 200 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 641 (1.9%)

2015 Result:
Labour Diana Johnson 18,661 52.8 +13.6
UKIP Sergi Singh 5,762 16.3 +12.2
Conservative Dehenna Davison 5,306 15.0 +1.9
Liberal Democrat Mike Ross 3,175 9.0 -28.3
Green Martin Deane 2,066 5.8 +4.4
Yorkshire First Vicky Butler 366 1.0 +1.0
Majority 12,899 36.5
Turnout 35,336 55.5

Leave Vote: 59.8%

Sitting MP: Diana Johnson (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

9. Hull West & Hessle

2010 Result:
Conservative: 6361 (20.2%)
Labour: 13378 (42.5%)
Lib Dem: 7636 (24.2%)
BNP: 1416 (4.5%)
UKIP: 1688 (5.4%)
English Dem: 876 (2.8%)
TUSC: 150 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 5742 (18.2%)

2015 Result:
Labour Alan Johnson 15,646 49.2 +6.7
UKIP Paul Salvidge 6,313 19.9 +14.5
Conservative Jo Barker 5,561 17.5 −2.7
Liberal Democrat Claire Thomas 3,169 10.0 −14.3
Green Angela Needham 943 3.0 +3.0
TUSC Paul Spooner 171 0.5 +0.1
Majority 9,333 29.3
Turnout 31,803 53.9

Leave Vote: 68%

Sitting MP: Alan Johnson (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

10. Scunthorpe

2010 Result:
Conservative: 12091 (32.6%)
Labour: 14640 (39.5%)
Lib Dem: 6774 (18.3%)
BNP: 1447 (3.9%)
Green: 396 (1.1%)
UKIP: 1686 (4.6%)
MAJORITY: 2549 (6.9%)

2015 Result:
Labour Nic Dakin 15,393 41.7 +2.1
Conservative Jo Gideon 12,259 33.2 +0.5
UKIP Stephen Howd 6,329 17.1 +12.6
Independent Des Comerford 1,097 3.0 N/A
Green Martin Dwyer 887 2.4 +1.3
Liberal Democrat Simon Dodd 770 2.1 -16.2
Independent Paul Elsom 206 0.6 N/A
Majority 3,134 8.5
Turnout 36,941 57.7

Leave Vote: 68.7%

Sitting MP: Nicholas Dakin (Lab)
Prediction: Conservative gain

If Theresa May manages to frame this as a ‘who would be better at negotiating with the EU – me or Corbyn?’ expect this seat to go Tory. Had UKIP not done so well in 2015 they would have won it last time.

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General Election Predictions

General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 47. Greater Manchester

1 May 2017 at 20:36

GREATER MANCHESTER

Seats: 27
Current Political Makeup: Con 5, Lab 22
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 8, Lab 19

1. Altrincham & Sale West

2010 Result:
Conservative: 24176 (48.9%)
Labour: 11073 (22.4%)
Lib Dem: 12581 (25.5%)
UKIP: 1563 (3.2%)
MAJORITY: 11595 (23.5%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Graham Brady 26,771 53.0 +4.0
Labour James Wright 13,481 26.7 +4.3
Liberal Democrat Jane Brophy 4,235 8.4 −17.1
UKIP Chris Frost 4,047 8.0 +4.8
Green Nick Robertson-Brown 1,983 3.9 +3.9
Majority 13,290 26.3 +2.8
Turnout 50,517 70.2 +0.9

Leave Vote: 38.6%

Sitting MP: Graham Brady (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

2. Ashton under Lyne

2010 Result:
Conservative: 9510 (24.7%)
Labour: 18604 (48.4%)
Lib Dem: 5703 (14.8%)
BNP: 2929 (7.6%)
UKIP: 1686 (4.4%)
MAJORITY: 9094 (23.7%)

2015 Result:
Labour Angela Rayner 19,366 49.8 +1.4
Conservative Tracy Sutton 8,610 22.1 −2.6
UKIP Maurice Jackson 8,468 21.8 +17.4
Green Charlotte Hughes 1,531 3.9 +3.9
Liberal Democrat Carly Hicks 943 2.4 -12.4
Majority 10,756 27.6 +3.9
Turnout 38,918 57.5 +0.6

Leave Vote: 63.4%

Sitting MP: Angela Rayner (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

3. Blackley & Broughton

2010 Result:
Conservative: 6260 (18.3%)
Labour: 18563 (54.3%)
Lib Dem: 4861 (14.2%)
BNP: 2469 (7.2%)
UKIP: 894 (2.6%)
Respect: 996 (2.9%)
Christian: 161 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 12303 (36%)

2015 Result:
Labour Graham Stringer 22,982 61.9 +7.7
UKIP Martin Power 6,108 16.5 +13.8
Conservative Michelle Tanfield-Johnson 5,581 15.0 -3.3
Green David Jones 1,567 4.2 +4.2
Liberal Democrat Richard Gadsden 874 2.4 -11.9
Majority 16,874 45.5 +9.5
Turnout 37,112 51.6 +2.9

Leave Vote: 50%

Sitting MP: Graham Stringer (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

4. Bolton North East

2010 Result:
Conservative: 15786 (36.5%)
Labour: 19870 (45.9%)
Lib Dem: 5624 (13%)
UKIP: 1815 (4.2%)
Others: 182 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 4084 (9.4%)

2015 Result:
Labour David Crausby 18,541 43.0 −3.0
Conservative James Daly 14,164 32.8 −3.7
UKIP Harry Lamb 8,117 18.8 +14.6
Liberal Democrat Stephen Rock 1,236 2.9 −10.1
Green Laura Diggle 1,103 2.6 +2.6
Majority 4,377 10.1 +0.7
Turnout 43,161 63.6 -0.7

Sitting MP: David Crausby (Lab)
Prediction: Conservative gain

Leave Vote: 58.1%

This seat used to be known as a weathervane seat. Labour’s majority increased last time but only because the huge increase in the UKIP vote suppressed the Conservative vote. Assuming a lot of the UKIP vote returns to the Tories this seat will fall.

5. Bolton South East

2010 Result:
Conservative: 10148 (25.6%)
Labour: 18782 (47.4%)
Lib Dem: 6289 (15.9%)
BNP: 2012 (5.1%)
Green: 614 (1.6%)
UKIP: 1564 (3.9%)
Others: 195 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 8634 (21.8%)

2015 Result:
Labour Yasmin Qureshi 20,555 50.5 +3.0
UKIP Jeff Armstrong 9,627 23.6 +19.7
Conservative Mudasir Dean 8,289 20.3 −5.3
Green Alan Johnson 1,200 2.9 +1.4
Liberal Democrat Darren Reynolds 1,072 2.6 −13.2
Majority 10,928 26.8
Turnout 40,743 58.5

Leave Vote: 63%

Sitting MP: Yasmin Qureshi (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

6. Bolton West

2010 Result:
Conservative: 18235 (38.3%)
Labour: 18327 (38.5%)
Lib Dem: 8177 (17.2%)
Green: 545 (1.1%)
UKIP: 1901 (4%)
Independent: 254 (0.5%)
Others: 137 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 92 (0.2%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Chris Green 19,744 40.6 +2.3
Labour Julie Hilling 18,943 39.0 +0.5
UKIP Bob Horsefield 7,428 15.3 +11.3
Liberal Democrat Andrew Martin 1,947 4.0 -13.2
Independent Andy Smith 321 0.7 +0.7
TUSC John Vickers 209 0.4 +0.4
Majority 801 1.6
Turnout 48,592 66.8

Leave Vote: 55.6%

Sitting MP: Chris Green (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

7. Bury North

2010 Result:
Conservative: 18070 (40.2%)
Labour: 15827 (35.2%)
Lib Dem: 7645 (17%)
BNP: 1825 (4.1%)
UKIP: 1282 (2.9%)
Independent: 181 (0.4%)
Others: 131 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 2243 (5%)

2015 Result:
Conservative David Nuttall 18,970 41.9 +1.8
Labour James Frith 18,592 41.1 +5.9
UKIP Ian Henderson 5,595 12.4 +9.5
Green John Southworth 1,141 2.5 +2.5
Liberal Democrat Richard Baum 932 2.1 −14.9
Majority 378 0.8 −4.2
Turnout 45,230 66.9 −0.4

Leave Vote: 53.7%

Sitting MP: David Nuttall (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

8. Bury South

2010 Result:
Conservative: 16216 (33.6%)
Labour: 19508 (40.4%)
Lib Dem: 8796 (18.2%)
BNP: 1743 (3.6%)
Green: 493 (1%)
UKIP: 1017 (2.1%)
English Dem: 494 (1%)
MAJORITY: 3292 (6.8%)

2015 Result:
Labour Ivan Lewis 21,272 45.1 +4.6
Conservative Daniel Critchlow 16,350 34.6 +1.0
UKIP Séamus Martin 6,299 13.3 +11.2
Liberal Democrat Paul Ankers 1,690 3.6 −14.6
Green Glyn Heath 1,434 3.0 +2.0
English Democrat Valerie Morris 170 0.4 −0.7
Majority 4,922 10.4 +3.6
Turnout 47,215 63.9 −1.7

Lave Vote: 54.5%

Sitting MP: Ivan Lewis (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Ivan Lewis is in danger here but the UKIP vote isn’t that high here so there is more for the Tory candidate to do to win. I suspect Lewis will prevail.

9. Cheadle

2010 Result:
Conservative: 21445 (40.8%)
Labour: 4920 (9.4%)
Lib Dem: 24717 (47.1%)
UKIP: 1430 (2.7%)
MAJORITY: 3272 (6.2%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Mary Robinson 22,889 43.1 +2.3
Liberal Democrat Mark Hunter 16,436 31.0 -16.1
Labour Martin Miller 8,673 16.3 +7.0
UKIP Shaun Hopkins 4,423 8.3 +5.6
Independent Matthew Torbitt 390 0.7 +0.7
Above and Beyond Drew Carswell 208 0.4 +0.4
Independence from Europe Helen Bashford 76 0.1 +0.1
Majority 6,453 12.2
Turnout 53,095 72.5

Sitting MP: Mary Robinson (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

10. Denton & Reddish

2010 Result:
Conservative: 9360 (24.9%)
Labour: 19191 (51%)
Lib Dem: 6727 (17.9%)
UKIP: 2060 (5.5%)
Independent: 297 (0.8%)
MAJORITY: 9831 (26.1%)

2015 Result:
Labour Andrew Gwynne 19,661 50.8 −0.2
Conservative Lana Hempsall 9,150 23.7 −1.2
UKIP Andrew Fairfoull 7,225 18.7 +13.2
Green Nick Koopman 1,466 3.8 N/A
Liberal Democrat Mark Jewell 957 2.5 −15.4
Independent Victoria Lofas 222 0.6 N/A
Majority 10,511 27.2
Turnout 38,681 58.1

Leave Vote: 61.4%

Sitting MP: Andrew Gwynne (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

11. Hazel Grove

2010 Result:
Conservative: 14114 (33.6%)
Labour: 5234 (12.5%)
Lib Dem: 20485 (48.8%)
UKIP: 2148 (5.1%)
MAJORITY: 6371 (15.2%)

2015 Result:
Conservative William Wragg 17,882 41.8 +7.8
Liberal Democrat Lisa Smart 11,330 26.2 -22.6
Labour Michael Taylor 7,584 17.5 +5.1
UKIP Darran Palmer 5,283 12.2 +7.1
Green Graham Reid 1,140 2.6 +2.6
Majority 6,552 15.2
Turnout 42,759 68.5 +1.9

Leave Vote: 51.7%

Sitting MP: William Wragg (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

12. Heywood & Middleton

2010 Result:
Conservative: 12528 (27.2%)
Labour: 18499 (40.1%)
Lib Dem: 10474 (22.7%)
BNP: 3239 (7%)
UKIP: 1215 (2.6%)
Independent: 170 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 5971 (12.9%)

BY-ELECTION
Liz McInnes (Labour) 11633 40.9% (0.8%)
John Bickley (UKIP) 11016 38.7% (
36.1%)
Iain Gartside (Conservative) 3496 12.3% (-14.9%)
Anthony Smith (Liberal Democrat) 1457 5.1% (-17.6%)
Abi Jackson (Green) 870 3.1% (n/a)
MAJORITY 617 2.2% (-10.7%)
Turnout 36% (-21.5%)

2015 Result:
Labour Liz McInnes 20,926 43.1 +3.0
UKIP John Bickley 15,627 32.2 +29.6
Conservative Iain Gartside 9,268 19.1 −8.1
Liberal Democrat Anthony Smith 1,607 3.3 −19.4
Green Abi Jackson 1,110 2.3 +2.3
Majority 5,299 10.9
Turnout 48,538 60.7

Leave Vote: 61.9%

Sitting MP: Liz McInnes (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

13. Leigh

2010 Result:
Conservative: 9284 (20.9%)
Labour: 21295 (48%)
Lib Dem: 8049 (18.2%)
BNP: 2724 (6.1%)
UKIP: 1535 (3.5%)
Christian: 137 (0.3%)
Independent: 988 (2.2%)
Others: 320 (0.7%)
MAJORITY: 12011 (27.1%)

2015 Result:
Labour Andy Burnham 24,312 53.9 +5.8
Conservative Louisa Townson 10,216 22.6 +1.7
UKIP Les Leggett 8,903 19.7 +16.3
Liberal Democrat Bill Winlow 1,150 2.5 −15.6
TUSC Stephen Hall 542 1.2 N/A
Majority 14,096 31.2 +4.1
Turnout 45,123 59.4 −2.6

Leave Vote: 63.3%

Sitting MP: Andy Burnham (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

14. Makerfield

2010 Result:
Conservative: 8210 (18.8%)
Labour: 20700 (47.3%)
Lib Dem: 7082 (16.2%)
BNP: 3229 (7.4%)
Independent: 3424 (7.8%)
Others: 1126 (2.6%)
MAJORITY: 12490 (28.5%)

2015 Result:
Labour Yvonne Fovargue 23,208 51.8 +4.5
UKIP Andrew Collinson 10,053 22.4 +22.4
Conservative Syeda Zaidi 8,752 19.5 +0.8
Liberal Democrat John Skipworth 1,639 3.7 −12.5
Green Philip Mitchell 1,136 2.5 +2.5
Majority 13,155 29.4 +0.9
Turnout 44,788 60.2 +0.8

Leave Vote: 64.9%

Sitting MP: Yvonne Fovargue (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

15. Manchester Central

2010 Result:
Conservative: 4704 (11.8%)
Labour: 21059 (52.7%)
Lib Dem: 10620 (26.6%)
BNP: 1636 (4.1%)
Green: 915 (2.3%)
UKIP: 607 (1.5%)
Independent: 120 (0.3%)
Others: 266 (0.7%)
MAJORITY: 10439 (26.1%)

BY ELECTION
Lucy Powell (Labour) 11507 69.1% (16.4%)
Marc Ramsbottom (Liberal Democrat) 1571 9.4% (-17.2%)
Matthew Sephton (Conservative) 754 4.5% (-7.3%)
Chris Cassidy (UKIP) 749 4.5% (
3.0%)
Tom Dylan (Green) 652 3.9% (1.6%)
Eddy O’Sullivan (BNP) 492 3% (-1.1%)
Loz Kaye (Pirate) 308 1.9% (n/a)
Alex Davidson (TUSC) 220 1.3% (n/a)
Catherine Higgins (Respect) 182 1.1% (n/a)
Howling Laud Hope (Loony) 78 0.5% (n/a)
Lee Holmes (Peoples Democratic) 71 0.4% (n/a)
Peter Clifford (Communist League) 64 0.4% (n/a)
MAJORITY 9936 59.7% (
33.6%)
Turnout 18.2% (-28.5%)

2015 Result:
Labour Co-op Lucy Powell 27,772 61.3 +8.5
Conservative Xingang Wang 6,133 13.5 +1.7
UKIP Myles Power 5,033 11.1 +9.6
Green Kieran Turner-Dave 3,838 8.5 +6.2
Liberal Democrat John Reid 1,867 4.1 −22.5
Pirate Loz Kaye 346 0.8 N/A
TUSC Alex Davidson 270 0.6 N/A
Communist League John Davies 72 0.2 N/A
Majority 21,639 47.7 +21.6
Turnout 45,331 52.7 +6.0

Leave Vote: 36.4%

Sitting MP: Lucy Powell (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

16. Manchester Gorton

2010 Result:
Conservative: 4224 (11%)
Labour: 19211 (50.1%)
Lib Dem: 12508 (32.6%)
Green: 1048 (2.7%)
Respect: 507 (1.3%)
Christian: 254 (0.7%)
TUSC: 337 (0.9%)
Others: 236 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 6703 (17.5%)

2015 Result:
Labour Gerald Kaufman 28,187 67.1 +17.0
Green Laura Bannister 4,108 9.8 +7.0
Conservative Mohammed Afzal 4,063 9.7 -1.4
UKIP Phil Eckersley 3,434 8.2 N/A
Liberal Democrat Dave Page 1,782 4.2 -28.4
TUSC Simon Hickman 264 0.6 -0.3
Pirate Cris Chesha 181 0.4 -0.2
Majority 24,079 57.3 +39.8
Turnout 42,019 57.6 +7.1

Sitting MP: Sir Gerald Kaufman (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

17. Manchester Withington

2010 Result:
Conservative: 5005 (11.1%)
Labour: 18216 (40.5%)
Lib Dem: 20110 (44.7%)
Green: 798 (1.8%)
UKIP: 698 (1.6%)
Independent: 147 (0.3%)
Others: 57 (0.1%)
MAJORITY: 1894 (4.2%)

2015 Result:
Labour Jeff Smith 26,843 53.7 +13.3
Liberal Democrat John Leech 11,970 24.0 −20.7
Conservative Robert Manning 4,872 9.8 −1.4
Green Lucy Bannister 4,048 8.1 +6.3
UKIP Mark Davies 2,172 4.3 +2.8
Independent Marcus Farmer 61 0.1 0.0
Majority 14,873 29.8
Turnout 49,966 67.5 +5.5

Leave Vote: 38.2%

Sitting MP: Jeff Smith (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

18. Oldham East & Saddleworth

2010 Result:
Conservative: 11773 (26.4%)
Labour: 14186 (31.9%)
Lib Dem: 14083 (31.6%)
BNP: 2546 (5.7%)
UKIP: 1720 (3.9%)
Christian: 212 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 103 (0.2%)

BY-ELECTION
Debbie Abrahams (Labour) 14718 42.1% (10.2%)
Elwyn Watkins (Liberal Democrat) 11160 31.9% (
0.3%)
Kashif Ali (Conservative) 4481 12.8% (-13.6%)
Paul Nuttall (UKIP) 2029 5.8% (1.9%)
Derek Adams (BNP) 1560 4.5% (-1.2%)
Peter Allen (Green) 530 1.5% (n/a)
Nick the Flying Brick Delves (Loony) 145 0.4% (n/a)
Stephen Morris (English Democrats) 144 0.4% (n/a)
Loz Kaye (Pirate) 96 0.3% (n/a)
David Bishop (Bus-Pass Elvis) 67 0.2% (n/a)
MAJORITY 3558 10.2% (
10%)

2015 Result:
Labour Debbie Abrahams 17,529 39.4 +7.5
Conservative Sajjad Hussain 11,527 25.9 −0.5
UKIP Peter Klonowski 8,557 19.2 +15.4
Liberal Democrat Richard Marbrow 5,718 12.9 −18.8
Green Miranda Meadowcroft 1,152 2.6 N/A
Majority 6,002 13.5 +13.3
Turnout 44,483 61.8 +0.6

Leave Vote: 57.9%

Sitting MP: Debbie Abrahams (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

A possible upset here if the stars align. Not sure they will, though.

19. Oldham West & Royton

2010 Result:
Conservative: 10151 (23.7%)
Labour: 19503 (45.5%)
Lib Dem: 8193 (19.1%)
BNP: 3049 (7.1%)
UKIP: 1387 (3.2%)
Respect: 627 (1.5%)
MAJORITY: 9352 (21.8%)

2015 Result:
Labour Jim McMahon 17,209 62.1 +7.3
UKIP John Bickley 6,487 23.4 +2.8
Conservative James Daly 2,596 9.4 −9.6
Liberal Democrat Jane Brophy 1,024 3.7 0.0
Green Simeon Hart 249 0.9 −1.0
Monster Raving Loony Sir Oink A-Lot 141 0.5 N/A
Majority 10,722 38.7 +4.5
Turnout 27,706 40.3 −19.3

Leave Vote: 62.3%

Sitting MP: Jim McMahon (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

20. Rochdale

2010 Result:
Conservative: 8305 (18.1%)
Labour: 16699 (36.4%)
Lib Dem: 15810 (34.4%)
UKIP: 1999 (4.4%)
Independent: 313 (0.7%)
Others: 2781 (6.1%)
MAJORITY: 889 (1.9%)

2015 Result:
Labour Simon Danczuk 20,961 46.1 +9.8
UKIP Mohammed Masud 8,519 18.8 +14.4
Conservative Azi Ahmed 7,742 17.0 -1.0
Liberal Democrat Andy Kelly 4,667 10.3 -24.2
Rochdale First Farooq Ahmed 1,535 3.4 N/A
Green Mark Hollinrake 1,382 3.0 N/A
National Front Kevin Bryan 433 1.0 -3.9
Islam Zinda Baad Platform Mohammed Salim 191 0.4 -0.8
Majority 12,442 27.4 +25.5
Turnout 45,430 57.4 -0.7

Sitting MP: Simon Danczuk (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

21. Salford & Eccles

2010 Result:
Conservative: 8497 (20.5%)
Labour: 16655 (40.1%)
Lib Dem: 10930 (26.3%)
BNP: 2632 (6.3%)
UKIP: 1084 (2.6%)
English Dem: 621 (1.5%)
TUSC: 730 (1.8%)
Independent: 384 (0.9%)
MAJORITY: 5725 (13.8%)

2015 Result:
Labour Rebecca Long-Bailey 21,364 49.4 +9.3
Conservative Greg Downes 8,823 20.4 −0.1
UKIP Paul Doyle 7,806 18.0 +15.4
Green Emma Van Dyke 2,251 5.2 +5.2
Liberal Democrat Charlie Briggs 1,614 3.7 −22.6
We are the Reality Party Mark “Bez” Berry 703 1.6 +1.6
TUSC Noreen Bailey 517 1.2 −0.6
Pirate Sam Clark 183 0.4 +0.4
Majority 12,541 29.0 +15.2
Turnout 43,261 58.2 +3.2

Leave Vote: 52.8%

Sitting MP: Rebecca Long-Bailey (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

22. Stalybridge & Hyde

2010 Result:
Conservative: 13445 (32.9%)
Labour: 16189 (39.6%)
Lib Dem: 6965 (17%)
BNP: 2259 (5.5%)
Green: 679 (1.7%)
UKIP: 1342 (3.3%)
MAJORITY: 2744 (6.7%)

2015 Result:
Labour Co-op Jonathan Reynolds 18,447 45.0 +5.4
Conservative Martin Riley 11,761 28.7 -4.2
UKIP Angela McManus 7,720 18.8 +15.5
Green Jenny Ross 1,850 4.5 +2.8
Liberal Democrat Peter Flynn 1,256 3.1 -14.0
Majority 6,686 16.3 +9.6
Turnout 41,034 59.4 +0.2

Leave Vote: 58.5%

Sitting MP: Jonathan Reynolds (Lab)
Prediction: Conservative gain

Jonathan Reynolds is one of the nicest politicians you could hope to meet, so I assume he is a very diligent constituency MP. He may need every vote of his personal vote to pull through here. But with UKIP not standing, a Tory gain is very likely.

23. Stockport

2010 Result:
Conservative: 9913 (25.3%)
Labour: 16697 (42.7%)
Lib Dem: 9778 (25%)
BNP: 1201 (3.1%)
Green: 677 (1.7%)
UKIP: 862 (2.2%)
MAJORITY: 6784 (17.3%)

2015 Result:
Labour Ann Coffey 19,771 49.9 +7.2
Conservative Daniel Hamilton 9,710 24.5 -0.8
UKIP Steven Woolfe 5,206 13.1 +10.9
Liberal Democrat Daniel Hawthorne 3,034 7.7 -17.3
Green Gary Lawson 1,753 4.4 +2.7
Left Unity John Pearson 175 0.4 N/A
Majority 10,061 25.4
Turnout 39,649 62.0

Leave Vote: 47.9%

Sitting MP: Ann Coffey (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

24. Stretford & Urmston

2010 Result:
Conservative: 12886 (28.7%)
Labour: 21821 (48.6%)
Lib Dem: 7601 (16.9%)
Green: 916 (2%)
UKIP: 1508 (3.4%)
Christian: 178 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 8935 (19.9%)

2015 Result:
Labour Kate Green 24,601 53.0 +4.4
Conservative Lisa Cooke 12,916 27.8 -0.8
UKIP Kalvin Chapman 5,068 10.9 +7.6
Green Geraldine Coggins 2,187 4.7 +2.7
Liberal Democrat Louise Ankers 1,362 2.9 -14.0
Whig Paul Bradley-Law 169 0.4 +0.4
Population Party UK Paul Carson 83 0.2 +0.2
Majority 11,685 25.2 +5.3
Turnout 46,386 66.8 +2.7

Leave Vote: 48.9%

Sitting MP: Kate Green (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

25. Wigan

2010 Result:
Conservative: 10917 (24.7%)
Labour: 21404 (48.5%)
Lib Dem: 6797 (15.4%)
BNP: 2506 (5.7%)
UKIP: 2516 (5.7%)
MAJORITY: 10487 (23.8%)

2015 Result:
Labour Lisa Nandy 23,625 52.2 +3.7
Conservative Caroline Kerswell 9,389 20.7 −4.0
UKIP Mark Bradley 8,818 19.5 +13.8
Green Will Patterson 1,273 2.8 N/A
Liberal Democrat Mark Clayton 1,255 2.8 -12.6
Wigan Independents Gareth Fairhurst 768 1.7 N/A
Independent Brian Parr 165 0.4 N/A
Majority 14,236 31.4 +7.6
Turnout 45,293 59.5 +1.1

Leave Vote: 63%

Sitting MP: Lisa Nandy (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

26. Worsley & Eccles South

2010 Result:
Conservative: 13555 (32.5%)
Labour: 17892 (42.9%)
Lib Dem: 6883 (16.5%)
UKIP: 2037 (4.9%)
English Dem: 1334 (3.2%)
MAJORITY: 4337 (10.4%)

2015 Result:
Labour Barbara Keeley 18,600 44.2 +1.3
Conservative Iain Lindley 12,654 30.1 -2.4
UKIP Owen Hammond 7,688 18.3 +13.4
Green Chris Bertenshaw 1,242 3.0 +3.0
Liberal Democrat Kate Clarkson 1,100 2.6 -13.9
TUSC Steve North 380 0.9 +0.9
Reality Mags McNally 200 0.5 +0.5
Independent Geoffrey Berg 184 0.4 +0.4
Majority 5,946 14.1

Leave Vote: 62.2%

Sitting MP: Barbara Keeley (Lab)
Prediction: Conservative gain

Could be a tight one. It would need to be a huge landslide for this one to fall.

27. Wythenshawe & Sale East

2010 Result:
Conservative: 10412 (25.6%)
Labour: 17987 (44.1%)
Lib Dem: 9107 (22.3%)
BNP: 1572 (3.9%)
UKIP: 1405 (3.4%)
TUSC: 268 (0.7%)
MAJORITY: 7575 (18.6%)

BY ELECTION
Mike Kane (Labour): 13,261
John Bickley (UKIP): 4,301
Reverend Daniel Critchlow (Conservatives): 3,479
Mary Di Mauro (Lib Dem): 1,176
Nigel Woodcock (Green Party): 748
Eddy O’Sullivan (BNP): 708
Captain Chaplington-Smythe (Monster Raving Loony): 288
Turnout: 28%

2015 Result:
Mike Kane Labour 21,693 50.1 +6.0
Fiona Green Conservative 11,124 25.7 +0.2
Lee Clayton UKIP 6,354 14.7 +11.2
Victor Chamberlain Liberal Democrat 1,927 4.5 -17.9
Jess Mayo Green 1,658 3.8 N/A
Johnny Disco Monster Raving Loony 292 0.7 N/A
Lynn Worthington TUSC 215 0.5 -0.2
ajority: 10,569 (24.4%)
Swing: 3.0% from Con to Lab

Sitting MP: Michael Kane (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE

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General Election Predictions

General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 46. North Yorkshire

1 May 2017 at 19:04

NORTH YORKSHIRE

Seats: 8
Current Political Makeup: Con 7, Lab 1
Predicted Political Makeup after June 8: Con 7, Lab 1

1. Harrogate & Knaresborough

2010 Result:
Conservative: 24305 (45.7%)
Labour: 3413 (6.4%)
Lib Dem: 23266 (43.8%)
BNP: 1094 (2.1%)
UKIP: 1056 (2%)
MAJORITY: 1039 (2%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Andrew Jones 28,153 52.7 +7.0
Liberal Democrat Helen Flynn 11,782 22.1 -21.7
UKIP David Simister 5,681 10.6 +8.7
Labour Jan Williams 5,409 10.1 +3.7
Green Shan Oakes 2,351 4.4 N/A
Majority 16,371 30.7 +28.7
Turnout 53,376 69.0 -1.6

Leave Vote: 47.2%

Sitting MP: Andrew Jones (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

2. Richmond

2010 Result:
Conservative: 33541 (62.8%)
Labour: 8150 (15.3%)
Lib Dem: 10205 (19.1%)
Green: 1516 (2.8%)
MAJORITY: 23336 (43.7%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Rishi Sunak 27,744 51.4 −11.4
UKIP Matthew Cooke 8,194 15.2 +15.2
Labour Mike Hill 7,124 13.2 −2.1
Liberal Democrat John Harris 3,465 6.4 −12.7
Independent John Blackie 3,348 6.2 +6.2
Green Leslie Rowe 2,313 4.3 +1.4
Independent Robin Scott 1,811 3.4 +3.4
Majority 19,550 36.2
Turnout 53,999 64.7

Leave Vote: 57.4%

Sitting MP: Rishi Sunak (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

3. Scarborough & Whitby

2010 Result:
Conservative: 21108 (42.8%)
Labour: 12978 (26.3%)
Lib Dem: 11093 (22.5%)
BNP: 1445 (2.9%)
Green: 734 (1.5%)
UKIP: 1484 (3%)
Independent: 329 (0.7%)
Others: 111 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 8130 (16.5%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Robert Goodwill 20,613 43.2 +0.3
Labour Ian McInnes 14,413 30.2 +3.9
UKIP Sam Cross 8,162 17.1 +14.1
Green David Malone 2,185 4.6 +3.1
Liberal Democrat Michael Beckett 2,159 4.5 -18.0
Alliance for Green Socialism Juliet Boddington 207 0.4 +0.2
Majority 6,200 13.0
Turnout 47,739 64.9

Sitting MP: Robert Goodwill (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

4. Selby & Ainsty

2010 Result:
Conservative: 25562 (49.4%)
Labour: 13297 (25.7%)
Lib Dem: 9180 (17.7%)
BNP: 1377 (2.7%)
UKIP: 1635 (3.2%)
English Dem: 677 (1.3%)
MAJORITY: 12265 (23.7%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Nigel Adams 27,725 52.5 +3.1
Labour Mark Hayes 14,168 26.8 +1.1
UKIP Colin Heath 7,389 14.0 +10.8
Liberal Democrat Nicola Turner 1,920 3.6 -14.1
Green Ian Richards 1,465 2.8 N/A
TUSC Ian Wilson 137 0.3 N/A
Majority 13,557 25.7
Turnout 52,804 69.4

Leave Vote: 57.7%

Sitting MP: Nigel Adams (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

5. Skipton & Ripon

2010 Result:
Conservative: 27685 (50.6%)
Labour: 5498 (10%)
Lib Dem: 17735 (32.4%)
BNP: 1403 (2.6%)
UKIP: 1909 (3.5%)
Independent: 315 (0.6%)
Others: 179 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 9950 (18.2%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Julian Smith 30,248 55.4 +4.9
Labour Malcolm Birks 9,487 17.4 +7.3
UKIP Alan Henderson 7,651 14.0 +10.5
Liberal Democrat Jacquie Bell 4,057 7.4 −25.0
Green Andy Brown 3,116 5.7 N/A
Majority 20,761 38.1 +19.9
Turnout 54,559 71.6 +0.9

Sitting MP: Julian Smith (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

6. Thirsk & Malton

2010 Result:
Conservative: 20167 (52.9%)
Labour: 5169 (13.6%)
Lib Dem: 8886 (23.3%)
UKIP: 2502 (6.6%)
Liberal: 1418 (3.7%)
MAJORITY: 11281 (29.6%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Kevin Hollinrake 27,545 52.6 -0.3
Labour Alan Avery 8,089 15.4 +1.9
UKIP Toby Horton 7,805 14.9 +8.3
Liberal Democrat Di Keal 4,703 9.0 -14.3
Green Chris Newsam 2,404 4.6 N/A
Liberal John Clark 1,127 2.2 -1.6
Independent Philip Tate 692 1.3 N/A
Majority 19,456 37.2
Turnout 52,365 67.6

Sitting MP: Kevin Hollinrake (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

7. York Central

2010 Result:
Conservative: 12122 (26.1%)
Labour: 18573 (40%)
Lib Dem: 11694 (25.2%)
BNP: 1171 (2.5%)
Green: 1669 (3.6%)
UKIP: 1100 (2.4%)
Others: 154 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 6451 (13.9%)

2015 Result:
Labour Rachael Maskell 20,212 42.4 +2.4
Conservative Robert McIlveen 13,496 28.3 +2.2
UKIP Ken Guest 4,795 10.1 +7.7
Green Jonathan Tyler 4,791 10.0 +6.5
Liberal Democrat Nick Love 3,804 8.0 -17.2
Yorkshire First Chris Whitwood 291 0.6 +0.6
TUSC Megan Ollerhead 288 0.6 +0.6
Majority 6,716 14.1 +0.2
Turnout 47,677 63.3 +1.2

Leave Vote: 38.8%

Sitting MP: Rachael Maskell (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

8. York Outer

2010 Result:
Conservative: 22912 (43%)
Labour: 9108 (17.1%)
Lib Dem: 19224 (36.1%)
BNP: 956 (1.8%)
UKIP: 1100 (2.1%)
MAJORITY: 3688 (6.9%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Julian Sturdy 26,477 49.1 +6.1
Labour Joe Riches 13,348 24.8 +7.7
Liberal Democrat James Blanchard 6,269 11.6 -24.4
UKIP Paul Abbott 5,251 9.7 +7.7
Green Ginnie Shaw 2,558 4.7 +4.7
Majority 13,129 24.4 +17.5
Turnout 53,903 68.6 −2.5

Leave Vote: 44.7%

Sitting MP: Julian Sturdy (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

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Iain interviews Tory Leadership Candidate Andrea Leadsom

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General Election Predictions

General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 45. Highlands & Islands

1 May 2017 at 18:17

Scotland – North & Islands

Seats: 6
Current Political Makeup: SNP 5, LibDem 1
Predicted Political Makeup after June 8: SNP 5, LibDem 1

1. Orkney & Shetland

2010 Result:
Conservative: 2032 (10.5%)
Labour: 2061 (10.7%)
Lib Dem: 11989 (62%)
SNP: 2042 (10.6%)
UKIP: 1222 (6.3%)
MAJORITY: 9928 (51.3%)

2015 Result:
Liberal Democrats Alistair Carmichael10 9,407 41.4 −20.6
SNP Danus Skene 8,590 37.8 +27.2
Conservative Donald Cameron11 2,025 8.9 −1.6
Labour Gerry McGarvey 1,624 7.1 −3.5
UKIP Robert Smith12 1,082 4.8 −1.6
Majority 817 3.6 -47.7
Turnout 22,728 65.8 +7.3

Sitting MP: Alistair Carmichael (LibDem)
Prediction: LibDem hold

2. Na h-Eileanan an lar

2010 Result:
Conservative: 647 (4.4%)
Labour: 4838 (32.9%)
Lib Dem: 1097 (7.5%)
SNP: 6723 (45.7%)
Independent: 1412 (9.6%)
MAJORITY: 1885 (12.8%)

2015 Result:
SNP Angus MacNeil 8,662 54.3 +8.6
Labour Alasdair Morrison 4,560 28.6 −4.3
Conservative Mark Brown 1,215 7.6 +3.2
Scottish Christian John Cormack 1,045 6.6 n/a
Liberal Democrat Ruaraidh Ferguson 456 2.9 −4.6
Majority 4,102 25.7 +12.9
Turnout 15,938 73.2 +7.1

Sitting MP: Angus MacNeil (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold

3. Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross

2010 Result:
Conservative: 3744 (13%)
Labour: 7081 (24.6%)
Lib Dem: 11907 (41.4%)
SNP: 5516 (19.2%)
Independent: 520 (1.8%)
MAJORITY: 4826 (16.8%)

2015 Result:
SNP Paul Monaghan 15,831 46.3 +27.1
Liberal Democrat John Thurso 11,987 35.1 −6.3
Labour John Erskine 3,061 9.0 −15.7
Conservative Alastair Graham 2,326 6.8 −6.2
UKIP Annie Murray 981 2.9 N/A
Majority 3,844 11.2 n/a
Turnout 34,186 71.9 +11.0

Sitting MP: Paul Monaghan (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold

A LibDem target, yet they failed to make any progress at the 2016 Scottish Parliament elections.

4. Ross, Skye & Lochaber

2010 Result:
Conservative: 4260 (12.2%)
Labour: 5265 (15.1%)
Lib Dem: 18335 (52.6%)
SNP: 5263 (15.1%)
Green: 777 (2.2%)
UKIP: 659 (1.9%)
Independent: 279 (0.8%)
MAJORITY: 13070 (37.5%)

2015 Result:
SNP Ian Blackford 20,119 48.1 +33.0
Liberal Democrat Charles Kennedy 14,995 35.9 -16.8
Conservative Lindsay McCallum 2,598 6.2 -6.0
Labour Chris Conniff 2,043 4.9 -10.2
Scottish Green Anne Thomas 1,051 2.5 +0.3
UKIP Philip Anderson 814 1.9 +0.1
Independent Ronnie Campbell 191 0.5 -0.3
Majority 5,124 12.3
Turnout 41,811 77.2 +10.0

Sitting MP: Ian Blackford (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold

Not a huge majority, but sadly Charles Kennedy isn’t here to challenge it.

5. Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey

2010 Result:
Conservative: 6278 (13.3%)
Labour: 10407 (22.1%)
Lib Dem: 19172 (40.7%)
SNP: 8803 (18.7%)
Green: 789 (1.7%)
UKIP: 574 (1.2%)
Christian: 835 (1.8%)
TUSC: 135 (0.3%)
Others: 93 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 8765 (18.6%)

2015 Result:
SNP Drew Hendry5 28,838 50.1 +31.4
Liberal Democrats Danny Alexander 18,029 31.3 -9.4
Labour Mike Robb 4,311 7.5 -14.6
Conservative Edward Mountain 3,410 5.9 -7.4
Scottish Green Isla O’Reilly 1,367 2.4 +0.7
UKIP Les Durance 1,236 2.1 +0.9
Scottish Christian Donald Boyd6 422 0.7 -1.0
Majority 10,809 18.8
Turnout 57,613 74.2 +9.3

Sitting MP: Drew Hendry (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold

6. Moray

2010 Result:
Conservative: 10683 (26.1%)
Labour: 7007 (17.1%)
Lib Dem: 5956 (14.5%)
SNP: 16273 (39.7%)
UKIP: 1085 (2.6%)
MAJORITY: 5590 (13.6%)

2015 Result:
SNP Angus Robertson 24,384 49.5 +9.8
Conservative Douglas Ross 15,319 31.1 +5.0
Labour Sean Morton 4,898 9.9 −7.1
UKIP Robert Scorer 1,939 3.9 +1.3
Liberal Democrat Jamie Paterson 1,395 2.8 −11.7
Scottish Green James MacKessack-Leitch 1,345 2.7 N/A
Majority 9,065 18.4 +4.8
Turnout 49,280 68.7 +6.5

Sitting MP: Angus Robertson (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold

The Conservatives are heavily taregting this seat. Certainly in the Scottish Parliament elections it was a tigher race than in 2015, but it’s still quite a majority to overcome. A Tory gain here is highly doubtful, but in the world of Scottish politics at the moment, anything can happen.

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LBC Book Club: Iain Dale talks to Richard Davenport-Hines

Richard Davenport-Hines talks about his new book AN ENGLISH AFFAIR and the impact of the Profumo scandal on British society.

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General Election Predictions

General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 44. Scotland - North East

1 May 2017 at 17:50

Scotland – North East

Seats: 6
Current Political Makeup: SNP 6
Predicted Political Makeup after June 8: SNP 5, Con 1

7. Banff & Buchan

2010 Result:
Conservative: 11841 (30.8%)
Labour: 5382 (14%)
Lib Dem: 4365 (11.3%)
SNP: 15868 (41.3%)
BNP: 1010 (2.6%)
MAJORITY: 4027 (10.5%)

2015 Result:
SNP Eilidh Whiteford 27,487 60.2 +18.9
Conservative Alex Johnstone 13,148 28.8 −2.0
Labour Sumon Hoque1 2,647 5.8 −8.2
Liberal Democrat David Evans 2,347 5.1 −6.2
Majority 14,339 31.4 +18.9
Turnout 45,629 66.5 +6.7

Sitting MP: Eilidh Whiteford (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold

8. Gordon

2010 Result:
Conservative: 9111 (18.7%)
Labour: 9811 (20.1%)
Lib Dem: 17575 (36%)
SNP: 10827 (22.2%)
BNP: 699 (1.4%)
Green: 752 (1.5%)
MAJORITY: 6748 (13.8%)

2015 Result:
SNP Alex Salmond10 27,717 47.7 +25.5
Liberal Democrat Christine Jardine 19,030 32.7 −3.3
Conservative Colin Clark 6,807 11.7 −7.0
Labour Braden Davy 3,441 5.9 −14.2
UKIP Emily Santos11 1,166 2.0 N/A
Majority 8,687 15.0
Turnout 58,161 73.3 +6.9

Sitting MP: Alex Salmond (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold

9. Aberdeen North

2010 Result:
Conservative: 4666 (12.4%)
Labour: 16746 (44.4%)
Lib Dem: 7001 (18.6%)
SNP: 8385 (22.2%)
BNP: 635 (1.7%)
Others: 268 (0.7%)
MAJORITY: 8361 (22.2%)

2015 Result:
SNP Kirsty Blackman 24,793 56.4 +34.2
Labour Richard Baker 11,397 25.9 −18.5
Conservative Sanjoy Sen 5,304 12.1 −0.3
Liberal Democrat Euan Davidson 2,050 4.7 −13.9
TUSC Tyrinne Rutherford 206 0.5 +0.5
National Front Christopher Willett 186 0.4 +0.4
Majority 13,396 30.5
Turnout 43,936 64.9 +6.7

Sitting MP: Kirsty Blackman (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold

10. Aberdeen South

2010 Result:
Conservative: 8914 (20.7%)
Labour: 15722 (36.5%)
Lib Dem: 12216 (28.4%)
SNP: 5102 (11.9%)
BNP: 529 (1.2%)
Green: 413 (1%)
Others: 138 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 3506 (8.1%)

2015 Result:
SNP Callum McCaig 20,221 41.6 +29.8
Labour Anne Begg 12,991 26.8 −9.8
Conservative Ross Thomson 11,087 22.8 +2.1
Liberal Democrat Denis Rixon 2,252 4.6 −23.7
Scottish Green Dan Yeats 964 2.0 +1.0
UKIP Sandra Skinner 897 1.8 N/A
Independent Christopher Gray 139 0.3 N/A
Majority 7,230 14.9
Turnout 48,551 71.3 +4.1

Sitting MP: Callum McCaig (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold

11. West Aberdeenshire & Kincardine

2010 Result:
Conservative: 13678 (30.3%)
Labour: 6159 (13.6%)
Lib Dem: 17362 (38.4%)
SNP: 7086 (15.7%)
BNP: 513 (1.1%)
UKIP: 397 (0.9%)
MAJORITY: 3684 (8.2%)

2015 Result:
SNP Stuart Blair Donaldson 22,949 41.6 +25.9
Conservative Alexander James Amherst Burnett 15,916 28.8 -1.4
Liberal Democrat Sir Robert Hill Smith 11,812 21.4 -17.0
Labour Barry Black 2,487 4.5 -9.1
UKIP David Michael Lansdell 1,006 1.8 +1.6
Scottish Green Richard Paul Openshaw 885 1.6 +1.6
Independent Graham Reid 141 0.3 +0.3
Majority 7,033 12.7
Turnout 55,196 75.2 +6.8

Sitting MP: Stuart Blair Donaldson (SNP)
Prediction: Conservative gain

A surprise gain for the SNP last time, this was in effect a three way marginal. It still could be, but it’s a moot point as to whether the Conservatives can really eat into the SNP vote here. But they did so in the 2016 Scottish Parliament election.

12. Angus

2010 Result:
Conservative: 11738 (30.9%)
Labour: 6535 (17.2%)
Lib Dem: 4090 (10.8%)
SNP: 15020 (39.6%)
UKIP: 577 (1.5%)
MAJORITY: 3282 (8.6%)

2015 Result:
SNP Mike Weir 24,130 54.2 +14.7
Conservative Derek Wann 12,900 29.0 −1.9
Labour Gerard McMahon 3,919 8.8 −8.4
UKIP Calum Walker 1,355 3.0 +1.5
Liberal Democrat Sanjay Samani 1,216 2.7 −8.0
Scottish Green David Mumford 965 2.2 N/A
Majority 11,230 25.2 +16.6
Turnout 44,485 67.6 +7.2

Sitting MP: Michael Weir (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold

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Iain meets Gordon Aikman

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General Election Predictions

General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 43. Scotland - Central

1 May 2017 at 17:35

Scotland – Central

Seats: 5
Current Political Makeup: SNP 5
Predicted Political Makeup after June 8: SNP 5

13. Dundee East

2010 Result:
Conservative: 6177 (15.2%)
Labour: 13529 (33.3%)
Lib Dem: 4285 (10.6%)
SNP: 15350 (37.8%)
Green: 542 (1.3%)
UKIP: 431 (1.1%)
Others: 254 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 1821 (4.5%)

2015 Result:
SNP Stewart Hosie 28,765 59.7 +21.9
Labour Lesley Brennan 9,603 19.9 −13.4
Conservative Bill Bowman 7,206 15.0 −0.3
Liberal Democrat Craig Duncan 1,387 2.9 −7.7
Scottish Green Helen Grayshan 895 1.9 +0.5
CISTA Lesley Parker-Hamilton 225 0.5 N/A
TUSC Carlo Morelli 104 0.2 N/A
Majority 19,162 39.8 +34.3
Turnout 48,185 71.0 +9.0

Sitting MP: Stewart Hosie (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold

14. Dundee West

2010 Result:
Conservative: 3461 (9.3%)
Labour: 17994 (48.5%)
Lib Dem: 4233 (11.4%)
SNP: 10716 (28.9%)
TUSC: 357 (1%)
Independent: 365 (1%)
MAJORITY: 7278 (19.6%)

2015 Result:
SNP Chris Law 27,684 61.9 +33.0
Labour Michael Marra 10,592 23.7 −24.8
Conservative Nicola Ross 3,852 8.6 −0.7
Scottish Green Pauline Hinchion5 1,225 2.7 n/a
Liberal Democrats Daniel Coleman6 1,057 2.4 −9.0
TUSC Jim McFarlane7 304 0.7 −0.3
Majority 17,092 38.2
Turnout 44,714 67.8 +8.8

Sitting MP: Chris Law (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold

15. Perth & North Perthshire

2010 Result:
Conservative: 14739 (30.5%)
Labour: 7923 (16.4%)
Lib Dem: 5954 (12.3%)
SNP: 19118 (39.6%)
Others: 534 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 4379 (9.1%)

2015 Result:
SNP Pete Wishart 27,379 50.5 +10.9
Conservative Alexander Stewart6 17,738 32.7 +2.2
Labour Scott Nicholson 4,413 8.1 -8.3
Liberal Democrats Peter Barrett 2,059 3.8 -8.5
Scottish Green Louise Ramsay 1,146 2.1 n/a
UKIP John Myles 1,110 2.0 n/a
Independent Xander McDade 355 0.7 n/a
Majority 9,641 17.8 +8.7
Turnout 54,200 74.8 +7.9

Sitting MP: Pete Wishart (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold

Rumour is that the Tories are fighting hard to wrest this from the SNP. It would be a brave person who would put money on it though.

16. Argyll & Bute

2010 Result:
Conservative: 10861 (24%)
Labour: 10274 (22.7%)
Lib Dem: 14292 (31.6%)
SNP: 8563 (18.9%)
Green: 789 (1.7%)
Independent: 272 (0.6%)
Others: 156 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 3431 (7.6%)

2015 Result:
SNP Brendan O’Hara 22,959 44.3 +25.3
Liberal Democrat Alan Reid 14,486 27.9 −3.7
Conservative Alastair Redman 7,733 14.9 −9.1
Labour Mary Galbraith 5,394 10.4 −12.3
UKIP Caroline Santos5 1,311 2.5 N/A
Majority 8,473 16.3 N/A
Turnout 51,883 75.3 +8.0

Sitting MP: Brendan O’Hara (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold

17. Stirling

2010 Result:
Conservative: 11254 (24%)
Labour: 19558 (41.8%)
Lib Dem: 6797 (14.5%)
SNP: 8091 (17.3%)
Green: 746 (1.6%)
UKIP: 395 (0.8%)
MAJORITY: 8304 (17.7%)

2015 Result:
SNP Steven Paterson 23,783 45.6 +28.3
Labour Johanna Boyd 13,303 25.5 −16.2
Conservative Stephen Kerr 12,051 23.1 −0.9
Scottish Green Mark Ruskell 1,606 3.1 +1.5
Liberal Democrat Elisabeth Wilson 1,392 2.7 −11.8
Majority 10,480 20.1
Turnout 52,135 77.5 +6.7

Sitting MP: Steven Paterson (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold

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General Election Predictions

General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 42: Scotland - Edinburgh

1 May 2017 at 12:42

Scotland – Edinburgh

Seats: 9
Current Political Makeup: SNP 8, Lab 1
Predicted Political Makeup after June 8: SNP 9

34. Linlithgow & Falkirk

2010 Result:
Conservative: 6146 (11.9%)
Labour: 25634 (49.8%)
Lib Dem: 6589 (12.8%)
SNP: 13081 (25.4%)
MAJORITY: 12553 (24.4%)

2015 Result:
SNP Martyn Day6 32,055 52.0 +26.6
Labour Michael Connarty6 19,121 31.0 −18.8
Conservative Sandy Batho6 7,384 12.0 +0.1
UKIP Alistair Forrest6 1,682 2.7 n/a
Liberal Democrats Emma Farthing-Sykes7 1,252 2.0 −10.8
National Front Neil McIvor6 103 0.2 n/a
Majority 12,934 21.0
Turnout 61,597 70.8 +7.2

Sitting MP: Martyn Day (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold

35. Livingston

2010 Result:
Conservative: 5158 (10.8%)
Labour: 23215 (48.5%)
Lib Dem: 5316 (11.1%)
SNP: 12424 (25.9%)
BNP: 960 (2%)
UKIP: 443 (0.9%)
Independent: 149 (0.3%)
Others: 242 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 10791 (22.5%)

2015 Result:
SNP Hannah Bardell 32,736 56.9 +31.0
Labour Graeme Morrice7 15,893 27.6 −20.8
Conservative Chris Donnelly 5,929 10.3 −0.5
UKIP Nathan Somerville8 1,757 3.1 +2.1
Liberal Democrat Charles Dundas9 1,232 2.1 −9.0
Majority 16,843 29.3
Turnout 57,547 69.9 +6.8

Sitting MP: Hannah Bardell (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold

36. Edinburgh West

2010 Result:
Conservative: 10767 (23.2%)
Labour: 12881 (27.7%)
Lib Dem: 16684 (35.9%)
SNP: 6115 (13.2%)
MAJORITY: 3803 (8.2%)

2015 Result:
SNP Michelle Thomson 21,378 39.0 +25.8
Liberal Democrats Mike Crockart 18,168 33.1 −2.8
Conservative Lindsay Paterson 6,732 12.3 −10.9
Labour Cameron Day 6,425 11.7 −16.0
Scottish Green Pat Black 1,140 2.1 N/A
UKIP Otto Inglis 1,015 1.9 n/a
Majority 3,210 5.9
Turnout 54,858 76.5 +5.2

Sitting MP: Michelle Thomson (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold

Given Michelle Thomson’s, er, troubles, this might well depress the SNP vote here, even though she’s not standing again. Could well be a LibDem gain.

37. Edinburgh South West

2010 Result:
Conservative: 11026 (24.3%)
Labour: 19473 (42.8%)
Lib Dem: 8194 (18%)
SNP: 5530 (12.2%)
Green: 872 (1.9%)
Others: 367 (0.8%)
MAJORITY: 8447 (18.6%)

2015 Result:
SNP Joanna Cherry4 22,168 43.0 +30.8
Labour Ricky Henderson5 14,033 27.2 -15.6
Conservative Gordon Lindhurst6 10,444 20.2 -4.0
Scottish Green Richard Doherty7 1,965 3.8 +1.9
Liberal Democrat Daniel Farthing-Sykes8 1,920 3.7 -14.3
UKIP Richard Lucas9 1,072 2.1 n/a
Majority 8,135 15.8
Turnout 51,602 71.5 +3.0

Sitting MP: Joanna Cherry (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold

Not the safest of seats for the SNP, but it’s difficult to see Labour coming back here given their poll ratings.

38. Edinburgh North & Leith

2010 Result:
Conservative: 7079 (14.9%)
Labour: 17740 (37.5%)
Lib Dem: 16016 (33.8%)
SNP: 4568 (9.6%)
Green: 1062 (2.2%)
Liberal: 389 (0.8%)
TUSC: 233 (0.5%)
Independent: 128 (0.3%)
Others: 141 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 1724 (3.6%)

2015 Result:
SNP Deidre Brock 23,742 40.9 +31.3
Labour Co-op Mark Lazarowicz7 18,145 31.3 -6.2
Conservative Iain McGill8 9,378 16.2 +1.3
Scottish Green Sarah Beattie-Smith9 3,140 5.4 +3.2
Liberal Democrat Martin Veart10 2,634 4.5 -29.3
UKIP Alan Melville11 847 1.5 n/a
Left Unity Bruce Whitehead12 122 0.2 n/a
Majority 5,597 9.6
Turnout 58,008 71.7 +3.3

Sitting MP: Deirdre Brock (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold

Not a massive majority, but again, is Labour really in a position to mount a serious challenge? The answer is no.

39. Edinburgh East

2010 Result:
Conservative: 4358 (10.9%)
Labour: 17314 (43.4%)
Lib Dem: 7751 (19.4%)
SNP: 8133 (20.4%)
Green: 2035 (5.1%)
TUSC: 274 (0.7%)
MAJORITY: 9181 (23%)

2015 Result:
SNP Tommy Sheppard 23,188 49.2 +28.8
Labour Sheila Gilmore 14,082 29.9 −13.5
Conservative James McMordie 4,670 9.9 −1.0
Scottish Green Peter McColl 2,809 6.0 +0.9
Liberal Democrat Karen Utting 1,325 2.8 −16.6
UKIP Oliver Corbishley8 898 1.9 N/A
TUSC Ayesha Saleem 9 117 0.2 −0.4
Majority 9,106 19.3
Turnout 47,089 70.1 +4.7

Sitting MP: Tommy Sheppard (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold

40. Edinburgh South

2010 Result:
Conservative: 9452 (21.6%)
Labour: 15215 (34.7%)
Lib Dem: 14899 (34%)
SNP: 3354 (7.7%)
Green: 881 (2%)
MAJORITY: 316 (0.7%)

2015 Result:
Labour Ian Murray 19,293 39.1 +4.4
SNP Neil Hay 16,656 33.8 +26.1
Conservative Miles Briggs 8,626 17.5 -4.1
Scottish Green Phyl Meyer 2,090 4.2 +2.2
Liberal Democrats Pramod Subbaraman 1,823 3.7 -30.3
UKIP Paul Marshall 601 1.2 n/a
Scottish Socialist Colin Fox 197 0.4 n/a
Majority 2,637 5.4 +4.7
Turnout 49,286 74.9 +1.1

Sitting MP: Ian Murray (Lab)
Prediction: SNP gain

The state of the Scottish Labour Party makes it highly likely this seat will fall to the SNP leaving Labour with no seats in Scotland at all. Incredible.

41. Midlothian

2010 Result:
Conservative: 4661 (11.9%)
Labour: 18449 (47%)
Lib Dem: 6711 (17.1%)
SNP: 8100 (20.6%)
Green: 595 (1.5%)
UKIP: 364 (0.9%)
TUSC: 166 (0.4%)
Independent: 196 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 10349 (26.4%)

2015 Result:
SNP Owen Thompson7 24,453 50.6 +30.0
Labour Kenny Young8 14,594 30.2 −16.8
Conservative Michelle Ballantyne7 5,760 11.9 0.0
Scottish Green Ian Baxter9 1,219 2.5 +1.0
UKIP Gordon Norrie10 1,173 2.4 +1.5
Liberal Democrat Aisha Mir 1,132 2.3 −14.8
Majority 9,859 20.4
Turnout 48,331 71.2 +7.3

Sitting MP: Owen Thompson (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold

42. East Lothian

2010 Result:
Conservative: 9661 (19.7%)
Labour: 21919 (44.6%)
Lib Dem: 8288 (16.9%)
SNP: 7883 (16%)
Green: 862 (1.8%)
UKIP: 548 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 12258 (24.9%)

2015 Result:
SNP George Kerevan 25,104 42.5 +26.5
Labour Fiona O’Donnell7 18,301 31.0 −13.6
Conservative David Roach8 11,511 19.5 −0.2
Liberal Democrat Ettie Spencer9 1,517 2.6 −14.3
Scottish Green Jason Rose10 1,245 2.1 +0.4
UKIP Oluf Marshall 1,178 2.0 +0.9
Independent Mike Allan 158 0.3 N/A
Majority 6,803 11.5
Turnout 59,014 74.2 +7.3

Sitting MP: George Kerevan (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE

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General Election Predictions

General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 41. Fife

1 May 2017 at 12:30

Scotland – Fife

Seats: 6
Current Political Makeup: SNP 6
Predicted Political Makeup after June 8: SNP 6

18. Ochil & South Perthshire

2010 Result:
Conservative: 10342 (20.5%)
Labour: 19131 (37.9%)
Lib Dem: 5754 (11.4%)
SNP: 13944 (27.6%)
Green: 609 (1.2%)
UKIP: 689 (1.4%)
MAJORITY: 5187 (10.3%)

2015 Result:
SNP Tasmina Ahmed-Sheikh 26,620 46.0 +18.4
Labour Gordon Banks 16,452 28.4 -9.5
Conservative Luke Graham 11,987 20.7 +0.2
Liberal Democrats Iliyan Stefanov 1,481 2.6 -8.8
UKIP Martin Gray 1,331 2.3 +0.9
Majority 10,168 17.6
Turnout 57,871 74.8 +7.6

Sitting MP: Tasmina Ahmed-Sheikh (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold

19. North East Fife

2010 Result:
Conservative: 8715 (21.8%)
Labour: 6869 (17.1%)
Lib Dem: 17763 (44.3%)
SNP: 5685 (14.2%)
UKIP: 1032 (2.6%)
MAJORITY: 9048 (22.6%)

2015 Result:
SNP Stephen Gethins4 18,523 40.9 +26.7
Liberal Democrat Tim Brett5 14,179 31.3 −13.0
Conservative Huw Matthew Bell6 7,373 16.3 −5.5
Labour Brian Thomson7 3,476 7.7 −9.5
Scottish Green Andrew Collins8 1,387 3.1 N/A
Independent Mike Scott-Hayward9 325 0.7 N/A
Majority 4,344 9.6
Turnout 45,263 73.0 +6.4

Sitting MP: Stephen Gethins (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold

Stephen Gethins has had a high profile as SNP Europe spokesman and this may see him home, but a LibDem gain is certainly not out of the question here. The key for Ming Campbell’s successor is to target soft Tory votes. But in all likelihood, Gethins will hang on.

20. Glenrothes

2010 Result:
Conservative: 2922 (7.2%)
Labour: 25247 (62.3%)
Lib Dem: 3108 (7.7%)
SNP: 8799 (21.7%)
UKIP: 425 (1%)
MAJORITY: 16448 (40.6%)

2015 Result:
SNP Peter Grant 28,459 59.8 +38.2
Labour Melanie Ward 14,562 30.6 −31.7
Conservative Alex Stewart-Clark6 3,685 7.7 +0.5
Liberal Democrat Jane Ann Liston7 892 1.9 −5.8
Majority 13,897 29.2
Turnout 47,598 68.2 +8.5

Sitting MP: Peter Grant (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold

21. Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath

2010 Result:
Conservative: 4258 (9.3%)
Labour: 29559 (64.5%)
Lib Dem: 4269 (9.3%)
SNP: 6550 (14.3%)
UKIP: 760 (1.7%)
Independent: 184 (0.4%)
Others: 222 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 23009 (50.2%)

2015 Result:
SNP Roger Mullin 27,628 52.2 +37.9
Labour Co-op Kenny Selbie 17,654 33.4 -31.2
Conservative Dave Dempsey 5,223 9.9 +0.6
UKIP Jack Neill 1,237 2.3 +0.7
Liberal Democrat Callum Leslie 1,150 2.3 -7.1
Majority 9,974 18.9 n/a 1
Turnout 52,892 69.6 +7.4

Sitting MP: Roger Mullin (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold

22. Dunfermline West & Fife

2010 Result:
Conservative: 3305 (6.8%)
Labour: 22639 (46.3%)
Lib Dem: 17169 (35.1%)
SNP: 5201 (10.6%)
UKIP: 633 (1.3%)
MAJORITY: 5470 (11.2%)

2015 Result:
SNP Douglas Chapman 28,096 50.3 +39.6
Labour Thomas Docherty 17,744 31.7 -14.5
Conservative James Adam Reekie 6,623 11.9 +5.1
Liberal Democrat Gillian Cole-Hamilton5 2,232 4.0 -31.1
Scottish Green Lewis Alan Campbell6 1,195 2.1 N/A
Majority 10,352 18.5
Turnout 55,890 71.6 +5.2

Sitting MP: Douglas Chapman (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold

23. Falkirk

2010 Result:
Conservative: 5698 (11.2%)
Labour: 23207 (45.7%)
Lib Dem: 5225 (10.3%)
SNP: 15364 (30.3%)
UKIP: 1283 (2.5%)
MAJORITY: 7843 (15.4%)

2015 Result:
SNP John McNally 34,831 57.7 +27.5
Labour Karen Whitefield 15,130 25.1 -20.6
Conservative Alison Harris 7,325 12.1 +0.9
UKIP David Coburn 1,829 3.0 +0.5
Liberal Democrats Galen Milne 1,225 2.0 -8.3
Majority 19,701 32.6
Turnout 60,340 72.4 +10.4

Sitting MP: John McNally (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE

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