Diary

General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 58: Kent

6 May 2017 at 18:53

Seats: 17
Current Political Makeup: Con 17
Predicted Political Makeup after June 8: Con 17

1. Ashford

2010 Result:
Conservative: 29878 (54.1%)
Labour: 9204 (16.7%)
Lib Dem: 12581 (22.8%)
Green: 1014 (1.8%)
UKIP: 2508 (4.5%)
MAJORITY: 17297 (31.3%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Damian Green 30,094 52.5 −1.7
UKIP Gerald O’Brien 10,798 18.8 +14.3
Labour Brendan Chilton 10,580 18.4 +1.8
Liberal Democrat Debbie Enever 3,433 6.0 -16.8
Green Mandy Rossi 2,467 4.3 +2.5
Majority 19,296 33.6
Turnout 57,372 67.3

Leave Vote: 59.9%

Sitting MP: Damian Green (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

2. Canterbury

2010 Result:
Conservative: 22050 (44.8%)
Labour: 7940 (16.1%)
Lib Dem: 16002 (32.5%)
Green: 1137 (2.3%)
UKIP: 1907 (3.9%)
Others: 173 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 6048 (12.3%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Julian Brazier20 22,918 42.9 -1.9
Labour Hugh Lanning20 13,120 24.5 +8.4
UKIP Jim Gascoyne20 7,289 13.6 +9.8
Liberal Democrat James Flanagan20 6,227 11.6 -20.9
Green Stuart Jeffery21 3,746 7.0 +4.7
Socialist (GB) Robert Cox22 165 0.3 +0.3
Majority 9,798 18.3 -1.9
Turnout 53,465 64.0 +0.1

Sitting MP: Julian Brazier (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

3. Chatham & Aylesford

2010 Result:
Conservative: 20230 (46.2%)
Labour: 14161 (32.3%)
Lib Dem: 5832 (13.3%)
BNP: 1365 (3.1%)
Green: 396 (0.9%)
UKIP: 1314 (3%)
English Dem: 400 (0.9%)
Christian: 109 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 6069 (13.9%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Tracey Crouch 7 21,614 50.2 +4.0
Labour Tristan Osborne 10,159 23.6 −8.7
UKIP Ian Wallace8 8,581 19.9 +16.9
Liberal Democrat Thomas Quinton 1,360 3.2 −10.2
Green Luke Balnave 1,101 2.6 +1.7
Christian Peoples John-Wesley Gibson9 133 0.3 N/A
TUSC Ivor Riddell 125 0.3 N/A
Majority 11,455 26.6
Turnout 43,073 62.8

Leave Vote: 63.9%

Sitting MP: Tracey Crouch (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

4. Dartford

2010 Result:
Conservative: 24428 (48.8%)
Labour: 13800 (27.6%)
Lib Dem: 7361 (14.7%)
UKIP: 1842 (3.7%)
English Dem: 2178 (4.3%)
Independent: 264 (0.5%)
Others: 207 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 10628 (21.2%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Gareth Johnson8 25,670 49.0 +0.2
Labour Simon Thomson8 13,325 25.4 −2.1
UKIP Elizabeth Jones 10,434 19.9 +16.2
Liberal Democrat Simon Beard9 1,454 2.8 −11.9
Green Andy Blatchford 1,324 2.5 N/A
English Democrat Steve Uncles 211 0.4 −3.9
Majority 12,345 23.6 +2.4
Turnout 52,418 68.4 +2.7

Leave Vote: 64%

Sitting MP: Gareth Johnson (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

5. Dover

2010 Result:
Conservative: 22174 (44%)
Labour: 16900 (33.5%)
Lib Dem: 7962 (15.8%)
BNP: 1104 (2.2%)
UKIP: 1747 (3.5%)
English Dem: 216 (0.4%)
Independent: 82 (0.2%)
Others: 200 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 5274 (10.5%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Charlie Elphicke 21,737 43.3 -0.7
Labour Clair Hawkins 15,443 30.7 -2.8
UKIP David Little 10,177 20.3 +16.8
Liberal Democrat Sarah Smith 1,572 3.1 -12.7
Green Jolyon Trimingham13 1,295 2.6 N/A
Majority 6,294 12.5 +2.0
Turnout 50,224 68.9 -1.2

Leave Vote: 63%

Sitting MP: Charlie Elphicke (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

6. Faversham & Mid Kent

2010 Result:
Conservative: 26250 (56.2%)
Labour: 7748 (16.6%)
Lib Dem: 9162 (19.6%)
Green: 890 (1.9%)
UKIP: 1722 (3.7%)
Others: 940 (2%)
MAJORITY: 17088 (36.6%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Helen Whately6 24,895 54.4 −1.8
UKIP Peter Edwards-Daem 8,243 18.0 +14.3
Labour Michael Desmond 7,403 16.2 −0.4
Liberal Democrat David S. Naghi 3,039 6.6 −13.1
Green Tim Valentine 1,768 3.9 +2.0
Monster Raving Loony Hairy Knorm Davidson7 297 0.6 −0.2
English Democrat Gary Butler[citation needed] 158 0.3
Majority 16,652 36.4 −0.2
Turnout 45,803 65.9 −1.9

Leave Vote: 58.7%

Sitting MP: Helen Whately (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

7. Folkestone & Hythe

2010 Result:
Conservative: 26109 (49.4%)
Labour: 5719 (10.8%)
Lib Dem: 15987 (30.3%)
BNP: 1662 (3.1%)
Green: 637 (1.2%)
UKIP: 2439 (4.6%)
Independent: 247 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 10122 (19.2%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Damian Collins 26,323 47.9 −1.6
UKIP Harriet Yeo7 12,526 22.8 +18.2
Labour Claire Jeffrey8 7,939 14.4 +3.6
Liberal Democrat Lynne Beaumont9 4,882 8.9 −21.4
Green Martin Whybrow10 2,956 5.4 +4.2
TUSC Seth Cruse 244 0.4 N/A
YPP Rohen Kapur11 72 0.1 N/A
Socialist (GB) Andy Thomas 12 68 0.1 N/A
Majority 13,797 25.1 +5.9
Turnout 55,010 65.8 −1.9

Leave Vote: 61.6%

Sitting MP: Damian Collins (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

8. Gillingham & Rainham

2010 Result:
Conservative: 21624 (46.2%)
Labour: 12944 (27.7%)
Lib Dem: 8484 (18.1%)
BNP: 1149 (2.5%)
Green: 356 (0.8%)
UKIP: 1515 (3.2%)
English Dem: 464 (1%)
Others: 250 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 8680 (18.6%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Rehman Chishti 22,590 48.0 +1.8
Labour Paul Clark 12,060 25.6 -2.1
UKIP Mark Hanson 9,199 19.5 +16.3
Liberal Democrat Paul Chaplin6 1,707 3.6 -14.5
Green Neil Williams 1,133 2.4 +1.6
TUSC Jacqui Berry7 273 0.6 N/A
Independent Roger Peacock 72 0.1 N/A
Independent Mike Walters 44 0.1 N/A
Majority 10,530 22.4 +3.8
Turnout 47,078 64.8 -1.2

Leave Vote: 64.2%

Sitting MP: Rehman Chishti (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

9. Gravesham

2010 Result:
Conservative: 22956 (48.5%)
Labour: 13644 (28.8%)
Lib Dem: 6293 (13.3%)
Green: 675 (1.4%)
UKIP: 2265 (4.8%)
English Dem: 1005 (2.1%)
Independent: 465 (1%)
MAJORITY: 9312 (19.7%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Adam Holloway 23,484 46.8 −1.7
Labour Tanmanjeet Singh Dhesi5 15,114 30.1 +1.3
UKIP Sean Marriott 9,306 18.6 +13.8
Green Mark Lindop 1,124 2.2 +0.8
Liberal Democrat Anne-Marie Bunting 1,111 2.2 −11.1
Majority 8,370 16.7 -3.0
Turnout 50,139 67.5 +0.1

Leave Vote: 63.4%

Sitting MP: Adam Holloway (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

10. Maidstone & The Weald

2010 Result:
Conservative: 23491 (48%)
Labour: 4769 (9.7%)
Lib Dem: 17602 (36%)
Green: 655 (1.3%)
UKIP: 1637 (3.3%)
Christian: 131 (0.3%)
Others: 643 (1.3%)
MAJORITY: 5889 (12%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Helen Grant 22,745 45.5 −2.9
Liberal Democrat Jasper Gerard 12,036 24.1 −11.9
UKIP Eddie Powell 7,930 15.9 +12.5
Labour Allen Simpson 5,268 10.5 +0.8
Green Hannah Patton 1,396 2.8 +1.5
National Health Action Paul Hobday 583 1.2 N/A
Independent Robin Kinrade 52 0.1 N/A
Majority 10,709 21.4
Turnout 50,010 68.3 −0.6

Sitting MP: Helen Grant (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

11. Rochester & Strood

2010 Result:
Conservative: 23604 (49.2%)
Labour: 13651 (28.5%)
Lib Dem: 7800 (16.3%)
Green: 734 (1.5%)
English Dem: 2182 (4.5%)
MAJORITY: 9953 (20.7%)

BY ELECTION NOV 2014
UKIP: 16,867 (42.1%)
Conservative: 13,947 (34.8%)
Labour 6,713: (16.8%)
Green 1,692: (4.2%)
LibDem 349: (0.9%
Others 497: (1.3%)
MAJORITY: 2,920 (7.3%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Kelly Tolhurst 23,142 44.1 -5.1
UKIP Mark Reckless 16,009 30.5 N/A
Labour Naushabah Khan 10,396 19.8 −8.7
Green Clive Gregory 1,516 2.9 +1.4
Liberal Democrat Prue Bray 1,251 2.4 −13.9
TUSC Dan Burn 202 0.4 N/A
Majority 7,133 13.6
Turnout 52,516 66.5

Leave Vote: 55.9%

Sitting MP: Kelly Tolhurst (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

12. North Thanet

2010 Result:
Conservative: 22826 (52.7%)
Labour: 9298 (21.5%)
Lib Dem: 8400 (19.4%)
UKIP: 2819 (6.5%)
MAJORITY: 13528 (31.2%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Roger Gale 23,045 49.0 −3.7
UKIP Piers Wauchope8 12,097 25.7 +19.2
Labour Frances Rehal 8,411 17.9 −3.6
Green Edward Targett 1,719 3.7 +3.7
Liberal Democrat George Cunningham 1,645 3.5 −15.9
Majority 10,948 23.3
Turnout 47,053 70.1% +6.9

Leave Vote: 65.2%

Sitting MP: Sir Roger Gale (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

13. Sevenoaks

2010 Result:
Conservative: 28076 (56.8%)
Labour: 6541 (13.2%)
Lib Dem: 10561 (21.4%)
BNP: 1384 (2.8%)
UKIP: 1782 (3.6%)
English Dem: 806 (1.6%)
Independent: 258 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 17515 (35.4%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Michael Fallon 28,531 56.9 +0.1
UKIP Steve Lindsay12 8,970 17.9 +14.3
Labour Chris Clark 6,448 12.9 −0.4
Liberal Democrat Alan Bullion 3,937 7.9 −13.5
Green Amelie Boleyn 2,238 4.5 +4.5
Majority 19,561 39.0
Turnout 50,124 70.9

Leave Vote: 54.1%

Sitting MP: Michael Fallon (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

14. Sittingbourne & Sheppey

2010 Result:
Conservative: 24313 (50%)
Labour: 11930 (24.6%)
Lib Dem: 7943 (16.4%)
BNP: 1305 (2.7%)
UKIP: 2610 (5.4%)
Independent: 158 (0.3%)
Others: 319 (0.7%)
MAJORITY: 12383 (25.5%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Gordon Henderson 24,425 49.5 -0.6
UKIP Richard Palmer6 12,257 24.8 +19.4
Labour Guy Nicholson 9,673 19.6 -5.0
Liberal Democrat Keith Nevols 1,563 3.2 -13.2
Green Gary Miller 1,185 2.4 N/A
Monster Raving Loony Mad Mike Young 275 0.6 -0.1
Majority 12,168 24.6 -0.9
Turnout 49,378 65.0 +0.5

Leave Vote: 65.4%

Sitting MP: Gordon Henderson (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

15. South Thanet

2010 Result:
Conservative: 22043 (48%)
Labour: 14426 (31.4%)
Lib Dem: 6935 (15.1%)
UKIP: 2529 (5.5%)
MAJORITY: 7617 (16.6%)

2015 Result
Conservative Craig Mackinlay 18,838 38.1 −9.9
UKIP Nigel Farage 16,026 32.4 +26.9
Labour Will Scobie 11,740 23.8 −7.6
Green Ian Driver 1,076 2.2 N/A
Liberal Democrat Russell Timpson 932 1.9 −13.2
FUKP description1 Al Murray 318 0.6 N/A
Manston Airport Independent Ruth Bailey 191 0.4 N/A
We Are The Reality Party Nigel Askew 126 0.3 N/A
Party for a United Thanet Grahame Birchall 63 0.1 N/A
Independent Dean McCastree 61 0.1 N/A
Al-Zebabist Nation of Ooog Robert Abu-Obadiah 30 0.05 N/A
Majority 2,812 5.7 −10.9
Turnout 49,401 70.4 +5.1

Leave Vote: 61.7%

Sitting MP: Craig Mackinlay (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

16. Tonbridge & Malling

2010 Result:
Conservative: 29723 (57.9%)
Labour: 6476 (12.6%)
Lib Dem: 11545 (22.5%)
Green: 764 (1.5%)
UKIP: 1911 (3.7%)
English Dem: 390 (0.8%)
Others: 505 (1%)
MAJORITY: 18178 (35.4%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Tom Tugendhat6 31,887 59.4 +1.5
UKIP Robert Izzard7 8,153 15.2 +11.5
Labour Claire Leigh8 7,604 14.2 +1.6
Liberal Democrat Mary Varrall9 3,660 6.8 −15.7
Green Howard Porter 2,366 4.4 +2.9
Majority 23,734 44.2
Turnout 53,670 73.8 +2.3

Sitting MP: Tom Tugendhat (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

17. Tunbridge Wells

2010 Result:
Conservative: 28302 (56.2%)
Labour: 5448 (10.8%)
Lib Dem: 12726 (25.3%)
BNP: 704 (1.4%)
Green: 914 (1.8%)
UKIP: 2054 (4.1%)
Independent: 172 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 15576 (31%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Greg Clark 30,181 58.7 +2.4
Labour Kevin Kerrigan 7,307 14.2 +3.4
UKIP Colin Nicholson6 6,481 12.6 +8.5
Liberal Democrat James McCleary78 4,342 8.4 −16.8
Green Marie Jones 2,659 5.2 +3.4
Independent Graham Naismith9 458 0.9 +0.9
Majority 22,874 44.5 +13.5
Turnout 51,428 70.0 +0.2

Leave Vote: 44.6%

Sitting MP: Greg Clark (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

To see the complete list of predictions click HERE

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General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 57: Buckinghamshire

6 May 2017 at 15:58

BUCKINGHAMSHIRE

Seats: 7
Current Political Makeup: Con 6, Speaker 1
Predicted Political Makeup after June 8: Con 6, Speaker 1

1. Aylesbury

2010 Result:
Conservative: 27736 (52.2%)
Labour: 6695 (12.6%)
Lib Dem: 15118 (28.4%)
UKIP: 3613 (6.8%)
MAJORITY: 12618 (23.7%)

2015 Result:
Conservative David Lidington 28,083 50.7 -1.5
UKIP Chris Adams 10,925 19.7 +12.9
Labour William Cass 8,391 15.1 +2.5
Liberal Democrat Steven Lambert 5,885 10.6 -17.8
Green David Lyons 2,135 3.9 +3.9
Majority 17,158 31.0
Turnout 55,419 69.0

Leave Vote: 51.8%

Sitting MP: David Lidington (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

2. Beaconsfield

2010 Result:
Conservative: 32053 (61.1%)
Labour: 6135 (11.7%)
Lib Dem: 10271 (19.6%)
Green: 768 (1.5%)
UKIP: 2597 (4.9%)
Independent: 191 (0.4%)
Others: 475 (0.9%)
MAJORITY: 21782 (41.5%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Dominic Grieve 33,621 63.2 +2.2
UKIP Tim Scott 7,310 13.8 +8.8
Labour Tony Clements 6,074 11.4 -0.3
Liberal Democrat Peter Chapman 3,927 7.4 -12.2
Green Dave Hampton 2,231 4.2 +2.7
Majority 26,311 49.5
Turnout 53,163 71.1 +1.1

Leave Vote: 49%

Sitting MP: Dominic Grieve (Con)
Prediction: Definite Conservative hold

3. Buckingham

2010 Result:
Conservative: 0 (0%)
Labour: 0 (0%)
Lib Dem: 0 (0%)
BNP: 980 (2%)
UKIP: 8401 (17.4%)
Speaker: 22860 (47.3%)
Christian: 369 (0.8%)
Independent: 10331 (21.4%)
Others: 5394 (11.2%)
MAJORITY: 12529 (25.9%)

2015 Result:
Speaker John Bercow[n 4] 34,617 64.5 +17.2
UKIP Dave Fowler 11,675 21.7 +4.3
Green Alan Francis 7,400 13.7 N/A
Majority 22,942 42.7 16.8
Turnout 53,692 69.3 4.8

Leave Vote: 48.9%

Sitting MP: John Bercow (Speaker)
Prediction: Bercow to win

4. Chesham & Amersham

2010 Result:
Conservative: 31658 (60.4%)
Labour: 2942 (5.6%)
Lib Dem: 14948 (28.5%)
Green: 767 (1.5%)
UKIP: 2129 (4.1%)
MAJORITY: 16710 (31.9%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Cheryl Gillan 31,138 59.1 -1.3
UKIP Alan Stevens 7,218 13.7 +9.6
Labour Ben Davies7 6,712 12.7 +7.1
Liberal Democrat Kirsten Johnson8 4,761 9.0 -19.5
Green Gill Walker9 2,902 5.5 +4.0
Majority 23,920 45.4 +13.5
Turnout 52,731 72.7 -1.9

Leave Vote: 45%

Sitting MP: Cheryl Gillan (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

5. Milton Keynes North
2010 Result:
Conservative: 23419 (43.5%)
Labour: 14458 (26.8%)
Lib Dem: 11894 (22.1%)
BNP: 1154 (2.1%)
Green: 733 (1.4%)
UKIP: 1772 (3.3%)
Independent: 95 (0.2%)
Others: 363 (0.7%)
MAJORITY: 8961 (16.6%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Mark Lancaster 27,244 47.2 +3.8
Labour Emily Darlington 17,491 30.3 +3.5
UKIP David Reilly 6,852 11.9 +8.6
Liberal Democrat Paul Graham 3,575 6.2 -15.9
Green Jennifer Marklew 2,255 3.9 +2.5
TUSC Katie Simpson 163 0.3 N/A
Independent David Mortimer 112 0.2 N/A
Majority 9,753 16.9 +0.3
Turnout 57,692 66.4 +0.6

Leve Vote: 49.7%

Sitting MP: Mark Lancaster (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

6. Milton Keynes South

2010 Result:
Conservative: 23034 (41.6%)
Labour: 17833 (32.2%)
Lib Dem: 9787 (17.7%)
BNP: 1502 (2.7%)
Green: 774 (1.4%)
UKIP: 2074 (3.7%)
Others: 329 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 5201 (9.4%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Iain Stewart7 27,601 46.8 +5.2
Labour Andrew Pakes8 18,929 32.1 -0.1
UKIP Vince Peddle9 7,803 13.2 +9.5
Liberal Democrat Lisa Smith10 2,309 3.9 -13.8
Green Samantha Pancheri 1,936 3.3 +1.9
Independent Stephen Fulton 255 0.4 +0.4
Keep It Real Party Matthew Gibson 116 0.2 +0.2
Majority 8,672 14.7
Turnout 59,019 65.8 +1.9

Leave Vote: 53.1%

Sitting MP: Iain Stewart (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

7. Wycombe

2010 Result:
Conservative: 23423 (48.6%)
Labour: 8326 (17.3%)
Lib Dem: 13863 (28.8%)
UKIP: 2123 (4.4%)
Independent: 228 (0.5%)
Others: 188 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 9560 (19.9%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Steve Baker 26,444 51.4 +2.8
Labour David Williams 11,588 22.5 +5.2
UKIP David Meacock 5,198 10.1 +5.7
Liberal Democrat Steve Guy 4,546 8.8 -20.0
Green Jem Bailey 3,086 6.0 n/a
Independent David Fitton 577 1.1 +0.7
Majority 14,856 28.9 +9.0
Turnout 51,439 67.410 +1.2

Leave Vote: 48.4%

Sitting MP: Steve Baker (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

To see the complete list of predictions click HERE

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ConHome Diary: The Conservative Party Should Obey David Cameron's Maxim That "Sunlight is the Best Form of Disinfectant"

5 May 2017 at 11:13

Like most of you I have been following Mark Wallace’s tweets on candidate selections with massive interest. This site originally made its name, back in 2004, in blowing the lid off the secrecy behind Conservative candidate selections. Thirteen years on CCHQ is still shrouded in secrecy and does its best to prevent anyone from finding out who is standing for selection in particular seats. David Cameron used to say that transparency is the best form of disinfectant. He was right then, and he’s right now. The actions of CCHQ over the past three weeks have been ridiculous and totally counter-productive. I’ve always taken the view that the party should be proud of its candidates and should have no issues in telling party members who’s standing for selection in various seats. There should be nothing confidential or secretive about it at all. As soon as the shortlist has been drawn up CCHQ should press release it. There was one seat recently where party members were told that they wouldn’t be told who was on the shortlist until they turned up at the selection meeting. It was only through ConHome that they were able to find out who in advance they were expected to choose from. A whole succession of party chairmen and heads of the Candidates Committee have failed to address this issue over the years, and collectively they should hang their heads in shame. No one has ever explained to me why this should all be so secretive. Maybe they’re afraid people will use Google to find out the candidates’ past achievements and failures. I mean, heaven forfend. We live in a society where we no longer have to doff our caps to the political elites. We no longer have to believe what we are told. We question authority. We question those who tell us what we are ‘allowed’ to know. We live in an era where if people try to keep something secret, we question their motives. CCHQ needs to take a long hard look at its candidate selection procedures after the election, and the secrecy part of it needs to be near the top of the list for change.
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I don’t know if Mark Wallace has been totting up the number of female candidates being selected in safe or winnable seats, but Women2Win certainly ought to have their tales up, if that’s not an inappropriate expression. When Parliament was dissolved there were 68 female Tory MPs, compared to 99 Labour – 21% compared to 43%. If the polls are right and there’s going to be a reasonably big Tory majority it’s entirely possible the Conservative total will go above Labour’s, maybe even in percentage terms too. And let’s remember, it was Anne Jenkin and Theresa May who formed Women2Win with exactly this aim in mind. If Anne hadn’t already got a peerage, I’d suggest she should be awarded one!
*

The selection of Kemi Badenoch in Saffron Walden is yet another indication that Tory Party members are not the dusty old colonels the media delights in depicting them as. If I had predicted on my blog ten years ago that a female Asian candidate and a female black candidate had been selected in two safe Essex seats I’d have been written off as a lunatic. And the thing is, Kemi and Priti Patel are not alone. I can think of a whole host of non white candidates who now sit in the House of Commons in safe Tory seats. Perhaps the media might take a bit more notice of this. We’ve come a long way since John Taylor’s problems in Cheltenham in the early 1990s.
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Political commentators are having to rapidly revise their opinions of Theresa May. The narrative has always been that she’s very cautious and not a natural risk take. Well, having taken us all surprise by calling a general election, and on Wednesday appearing in Downing Street launching a nuclear missile at the European Commission, I think it’s safe to say that the word ‘audacious’ can be used about her in future. I do wish she’s loosen up a bit and stop the sloganizing during the campaign, but you have to say she hasn’t put a foot wrong so far. The Juncker episode has added at least five seats onto the Tory total, and Diane Abbott another ten, I’d have thought. And there are still five weeks to go.
*

Theresa May isn’t the most natural politician to adopt the cult of personality, but it is entirely right that this is the Tory strategy in this election campaign. She is the party’s biggest asset and in a campaign you put your biggest asset front and centre. The word Conservative seems to be relegated to an afterthought. Believe me, I hear time and time again on my radio show the words: “I’ve always voted Labour, but I like Theresa May…” People often can’t quite explain why, but she seems to instil confidence in them. I did a talk to journalism students at City University last Friday and had another example of this. A more mature black student put his hand up in the Q&A and said that he was a habitual Labour voter but he would be voting for Theresa May (note, for Theresa May, not the Conservatives) because he felt she was speaking to him. He couldn’t articulate any other reason. I kept asking him what it was in particular and he kept saying “I don’t know, I just like her.” It took me back to an episode in my German class at school, when I uttered a particularly complicated German sentence and the teacher asked me why I had used the word order that I had. I meekly replied: “I don’t know, Sir.” And back came the reply: “That’s excellent, it means you’re becoming fluent.” So when a voter can’t articulate the reason why they want to vote for Theresa May it doesn’t matter. It means they’re becoming Conservative without realising it. And we all know, once you’ve voted for a party once, it becomes much easier to do it again and again. That was Tony Blair’s biggest strength. He appealed to people outside the Labour Party’s natural areas of support. It’s a great gift in a politician and Theresa May has it in spades.
*
Today at noon I start a new weekly TV show on CNN International called CNN Talk. Every Friday Max Foster will host a half hour show discussing political issues of the week with a panel which includes me, economics commentator Liam Halligan and former Labour Spad Ayesha Hazirika. I hope you’ll tune in, wherever in the world you are!

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Iain is Interviewed by Alex Foster of LibDem Voice

At the LibDem Conference

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General Election Predictions

General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 56. London West

3 May 2017 at 22:35

LONDON WEST

Seats: 9
Current Political Makeup: Con 2, Lab 7
Predicted Political Makeup after June 8: Con 4, Lab 5

Brentford & Isleworth

2010 Result:
Conservative: 20022 (37.2%)
Labour: 18064 (33.6%)
Lib Dem: 12718 (23.7%)
BNP: 704 (1.3%)
Green: 787 (1.5%)
UKIP: 863 (1.6%)
English Dem: 230 (0.4%)
Christian: 210 (0.4%)
Independent: 68 (0.1%)
Others: 99 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 1958 (3.6%)

2015 Result:
Labour Ruth Cadbury9 25,096 43.8 +10.2
Conservative Mary Macleod 9 24,631 42.9 +5.7
UKIP Richard Hendron 10 3,203 5.6 +4.0
Liberal Democrat Joseph Bourke11 2,305 4.0 -19.6
Green Daniel Goldsmith 9 2,120 3.7 +2.2
Majority 465 0.8 n/a1
Turnout 57,355 67.8 +3.4

Leave Vote: 40.4%

Sitting MP: Ruth Cadbury (Lab)
Prediction: Conservative gain

A surefire Conservative gain here for the former MP who lost in 2010.

Chelsea & Fulham

2010 Result:
Conservative: 24093 (60.5%)
Labour: 7371 (18.5%)
Lib Dem: 6473 (16.2%)
BNP: 388 (1%)
Green: 671 (1.7%)
UKIP: 478 (1.2%)
English Dem: 169 (0.4%)
Others: 213 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 16722 (42%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Greg Hands11 25,322 62.9 +2.5
Labour Alexandra Sanderson12 9,300 23.1 +4.6
Liberal Democrat Simon Bailey 2,091 5.2 -11
UKIP Adrian Noble12 2,039 5.1 +3.9
Green Guy Rubin13 1,474 3.7 +2
Majority 16,022 39.8
Turnout 40,226 63.4 +3.3

Leave Vote: 29.1%

Sitting MP: Greg Hands (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Ealing Central & Acton

2010 Result:
Conservative: 17944 (38%)
Labour: 14228 (30.1%)
Lib Dem: 13041 (27.6%)
Green: 737 (1.6%)
UKIP: 765 (1.6%)
Christian: 295 (0.6%)
Others: 190 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 3716 (7.9%)

2015 Result:
Labour Rupa Huq 22,002 43.2 +13.1
Conservative Angie Bray 21,728 42.7 +4.7
Liberal Democrat Jon Ball 3,106 6.1 −21.5
UKIP Peter Florence 1,926 3.8 +2.2
Green Tom Sharman15 1,841 3.6 +2.1
Independent Jonathan Notley 125 0.2 N/A
Workers Revolutionary Scott Dore 73 0.1 N/A
Above and Beyond Party Tammy Rendle 54 0.1 N/A
Europeans Party Andrzej Rygielski 39 0.1 N/A
Majority 274 0.5
Turnout 50,894 71.4 +3.9

Leave Vote: 29.1%

Sitting MP: Rupa Huq (Lab)
Prediction: Conservative gain

Even though the Greens aren’t standing here I find it difficult to think this seat won’t revert to the Conservatives, despite the heavy Remain vote.

Ealing North

2010 Result:
Conservative: 14722 (30.9%)
Labour: 24023 (50.4%)
Lib Dem: 6283 (13.2%)
BNP: 1045 (2.2%)
Green: 505 (1.1%)
UKIP: 685 (1.4%)
Christian: 415 (0.9%)
MAJORITY: 9301 (19.5%)

2015 Result:
Labour Stephen Pound 26,745 55.1 +4.7
Conservative Thomas O’Malley 14,419 29.7 −1.2
UKIP Afzal Akram 3,922 8.1 +6.6
Green Meena Hans5 1,635 3.4 +2.3
Liberal Democrat Kevin McNamara 1,575 3.2 −9.9
TUSC David Hofman 214 0.4 N/A
Majority 12,326 25.4 +5.9
Turnout 48,510 65.7 −4.5

Leave Vote: 48.6%

Sitting MP: Stephen Pound
Prediction: Labour hold

Ealing Southall

2010 Result:
Conservative: 12733 (29.8%)
Labour: 22024 (51.5%)
Lib Dem: 6383 (14.9%)
Green: 705 (1.6%)
English Dem: 408 (1%)
Christian: 503 (1.2%)
MAJORITY: 9291 (21.7%)

2015 Result:
Labour Virendra Sharma 28,147 65.0 +13.5
Conservative James Symes 9,387 21.7 −8.1
Green Jas Mahal7 2,007 4.6 +3.0
UKIP John Poynton 1,769 4.1 N/A
Liberal Democrat Kavya Kaushik 1,550 3.6 −11.4
NLP Jagdeesh Singh 461 1.1 N/A
Majority 18,760 43.3 +21.6
Turnout 43,321 66.1 −4.7

Leave Vote: 43.2%

Sitting MP: Virendra Sharma (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Feltham & Heston

2010 Result:
Conservative: 16516 (34%)
Labour: 21174 (43.6%)
Lib Dem: 6679 (13.8%)
BNP: 1714 (3.5%)
Green: 530 (1.1%)
UKIP: 992 (2%)
Independent: 505 (1%)
Others: 426 (0.9%)
MAJORITY: 4658 (9.6%)

BY-ELECTION 2011
Seema Malhotra (Labour) 12639 54.4% (10.8%)
Mark Bowen (Conservative) 6436 27.7% (-6.3%)
Roger Crouch (Liberal Democrat) 1364 5.9% (-7.8%)
Andrew Charalambous (UKIP) 1276 5.5% (
3.5%)
Dave Furness (BNP) 540 2.3% (-1.2%)
Daniel Goldsmith (Green) 426 1.8% (0.7%)
Roger Cooper (English Democrats) 322 1.4% (n/a)
George Hallam (People Before Profit) 128 0.6% (n/a)
David Bishop (Buss Pass Elvis) 93 0.4% (n/a)
MAJORITY 6203 26.7% (
17.1%)
Turnout 28.8% (-31.1%)

2015 Result:
Labour Seema Malhotra 25,845 52.3 +8.7
Conservative Simon Nayyar 14,382 29.1 −4.9
UKIP Peter Dul 6,209 12.6 +10.5
Liberal Democrat Roger Crouch 1,579 3.2 −10.6
Green Tony Firkins 1,390 2.8 +1.7
Majority 11,463 23.2 −3.5
Turnout 49,405 60.0 +0.111

Sitting MP: Seema Malhotra (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Hammersmith

2010 Result:
Conservative: 17261 (36.4%)
Labour: 20810 (43.9%)
Lib Dem: 7567 (15.9%)
BNP: 432 (0.9%)
Green: 696 (1.5%)
UKIP: 551 (1.2%)
Independent: 135 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 3549 (7.5%)

2015 Result:
Labour Andy Slaughter 23,981 50.0 +6.1
Conservative Charlie Dewhirst10 17,463 36.4 0.0
Liberal Democrat Millicent Scott11 2,224 4.6 -11.3
Green David Akan12 2,105 4.4 +2.9
UKIP Richard Wood13 2,105 4.4 +3.2
Independent Stephen Brennan 82 0.2 +0.2
Majority 6,518 13.6 +6.1
Turnout 47,960 66.4 +0.8

Leave Vote: 31.3%

Sitting MP: Andy Slaughter (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Hayes & Harlington

2010 Result:
Conservative: 12553 (29.4%)
Labour: 23377 (54.8%)
Lib Dem: 3726 (8.7%)
BNP: 1520 (3.6%)
Green: 348 (0.8%)
English Dem: 464 (1.1%)
Christian: 83 (0.2%)
Others: 566 (1.3%)
MAJORITY: 10824 (25.4%)

2015 Result:
Labour John McDonnell 26,843 59.6 +4.7
Conservative Pearl Lewis 11,143 24.7 −4.7
UKIP Cliff Dixon 5,388 12.0 N/A
Liberal Democrat Satnam Kaur Khalsa 888 2.0 −6.8
Green Alick Munro 794 1.8 +0.9
Majority 15,700 34.8 +9.4
Turnout 45,056 60.2 −0.5

Leave Vote: 58.2%

Sitting MP: John McDonnell
Prediction: Labour hold

Uxbridge & South Ruislip

2010 Result:
Conservative: 21758 (48.3%)
Labour: 10542 (23.4%)
Lib Dem: 8995 (20%)
BNP: 1396 (3.1%)
Green: 477 (1.1%)
UKIP: 1234 (2.7%)
English Dem: 403 (0.9%)
Others: 271 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 11216 (24.9%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Boris Johnson 22,511 50.2 +1.9
Labour Chris Summers13 11,816 26.4 +3.0
UKIP Jack Duffin 6,346 14.2 +11.4
Liberal Democrat Michael Cox14 2,215 4.9 -15.0
Green Graham Lee15 1,414 3.2 +2.1
TUSC Gary Harbord 16 180 0.4 N/A
Independent Jenny Thompson17 84 0.2 N/A
Monster Raving Loony Howling Laud Hope18 72 0.2 N/A
Communities United Sabrina Moosun17 52 0.1 N/A
The Eccentric Party of Great Britain (UK) Lord Toby Jug17 50 0.1 N/A
Independent Michael Doherty17 39 0.1 N/A
The Realists` Party Jane Lawrence17 18 0.0 N/A
Independent James Jackson17 14 0.0 N/A
Majority 10,695 23.9 -1.0
Turnout 44,811 63.4 +0.1

Leave Vote: 57.2%

Sitting MP: Boris Johnson (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE

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Iain Dale & Shelagh Fogarty's General Election Night Show

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General Election Predictions

General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 55. London - South East

3 May 2017 at 21:47

Seats: 12
Current Political Makeup: Con 5, Lab 7
Predicted Political Makeup after June 8: Con 6 , Lab 5, LibDem 1
Revised: Con 6, Lab 6

Beckenham

2010 Result:
Conservative: 27597 (57.9%)
Labour: 6893 (14.5%)
Lib Dem: 9813 (20.6%)
BNP: 1001 (2.1%)
Green: 608 (1.3%)
UKIP: 1551 (3.3%)
English Dem: 223 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 17784 (37.3%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Bob Stewart 27,955 57.3 -0.6
Labour Marina Ahmad 9,484 19.4 +5.0
UKIP Rob Bryant 6,108 12.5 +9.3
Liberal Democrat Anuja Prashar 3,378 6.9 -13.7
Green Ruth Fabricant8 1,878 3.8 +2.6
Majority 18,471 37.8
Turnout 48,803 73.2 +1.2

Leave Vote: 46.6%

Sitting MP: Col Bob Stewart (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Bermondsey & Old Southwark

2010 Result:
Conservative: 7638 (17.1%)
Labour: 13060 (29.2%)
Lib Dem: 21590 (48.4%)
BNP: 1370 (3.1%)
Green: 718 (1.6%)
Independent: 155 (0.3%)
Others: 120 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 8530 (19.1%)

2015 Result:
Labour Neil Coyle 22,146 43.1 +13.8
Liberal Democrat Simon Hughes 17,657 34.3 -14.0
Conservative Jean-Paul Floru 6,051 11.8 -5.3
UKIP Andy Beadle 3,254 6.3 +6.0
Green William Lavin 2,023 3.9 +2.3
TUSC Kingsley Abrams 142 0.3 N/A
Independent Lucy Hall 72 0.1 N/A
All People’s Party Donald Cole 59 0.1 N/A
Republican Socialist Party Steve Freeman 20 0.0 N/A
Majority 4,489 8.7
Turnout 51,424 61.7 +4.2

Leave Vote: 26%

Sitting MP: Neil Coyle (Lab)
Prediction: LibDem gain
Revised: Lab hold

To be honest this could go either way. Neil Coyle has been very outspoken against Jeremy Corbyn, but it’s difficult to know whether this will play to his advantage or not. Simon Hughes had an excellent reputation as a constituency MP and it’s entirely possible he may win back the seat. I think he will.

Bexleyheath & Crayford

2010 Result:
Conservative: 21794 (50.5%)
Labour: 11450 (26.5%)
Lib Dem: 5502 (12.7%)
BNP: 2042 (4.7%)
Green: 371 (0.9%)
UKIP: 1557 (3.6%)
English Dem: 466 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 10344 (24%)

2015 Result:
Conservative David Evennett 20,643 47.3 -3.2
Labour Stefano Borella 11,451 26.2 -0.3
UKIP Chris Attard 9,182 21.0 +17.4
Liberal Democrat Richard Davis 1,308 3.0 -9.7
Green Stella Gardiner6 950 2.2 +1.3
English Democrat Maggi Young 151 0.3 -0.8
Majority 9,192 21.3 -2.7
Turnout 43,685 67.4 +1.0

Leave Vote: 65.3%

Sitting MP: David Evennett (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Bromley & Chislehurst

2010 Result:
Conservative: 23569 (53.5%)
Labour: 7295 (16.6%)
Lib Dem: 9669 (22%)
BNP: 1070 (2.4%)
Green: 607 (1.4%)
UKIP: 1451 (3.3%)
English Dem: 376 (0.9%)
MAJORITY: 13900 (31.6%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Bob Neill 23,343 53.0 -0.5
Labour John Courtneidge 10 9,779 22.2 +5.6
UKIP Emmett Jenner 6,285 14.3 +11.0
Liberal Democrat Sam Webber11 2,836 6.4 -15.5
Green Roisin Robertson12 1,823 4.1 +2.8
Majority 13,564 30.8 -0.8
Turnout 44,066 68.4 +1.1

Leave Vote: 49.7%

Sitting MP: Bob Neill (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Eltham

2010 Result:
Conservative: 15753 (37.5%)
Labour: 17416 (41.5%)
Lib Dem: 5299 (12.6%)
BNP: 1745 (4.2%)
Green: 419 (1%)
UKIP: 1011 (2.4%)
English Dem: 217 (0.5%)
Independent: 104 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 1663 (4%)

2015 Result:
Labour Clive Efford 18,393 42.6 +1.1
Conservative Spencer Drury 15,700 36.4 −1.2
UKIP Peter Whittle 6,481 15.0 +12.6
Liberal Democrat Alex Cunliffe 1,308 3.0 −9.6
Green James Parker 1,275 3.0 +2.0
Majority 2,693 6.2 +2.2
Turnout 43,157 67.4 +0.4

Leave Vote: 52.4%

Sitting MP: Clive Efford (Lab)
Prediction: Conservative gain

Highly marginal seat which the Tories expected to take in 2010. They didn’t manage it last time, but this time it looks like Taxi for Mr Efford!

Erith & Thamesmead

2010 Result:
Conservative: 13365 (31.5%)
Labour: 19068 (44.9%)
Lib Dem: 5116 (12%)
BNP: 2184 (5.1%)
Green: 322 (0.8%)
UKIP: 1139 (2.7%)
English Dem: 465 (1.1%)
Others: 817 (1.9%)
MAJORITY: 5703 (13.4%)

2015 Result:
Labour Teresa Pearce 21,209 49.8 +4.9
Conservative Anna Firth 11,684 27.4 −4.0
UKIP Ronie Johnson 7,368 17.3 +14.6
Liberal Democrat Simon Waddington 972 2.3 −9.8
Green Ann Garrett 941 2.2 +1.4
Christian Peoples Sidney Cordle 255 0.6 −0.3
English Democrat Graham Moore 188 0.4 −0.7
Majority 9,525 22.4 +9
Turnout 42,617 60.5 +0.3

Leave Vote: 54.6%

Sitting MP: Teresa Pearce (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Greenwich & Woolwich

2010 Result:
Conservative: 10109 (24.5%)
Labour: 20262 (49.2%)
Lib Dem: 7498 (18.2%)
BNP: 1151 (2.8%)
Green: 1054 (2.6%)
English Dem: 339 (0.8%)
Christian: 443 (1.1%)
TUSC: 267 (0.6%)
Independent: 65 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 10153 (24.7%

2015 Result:
Labour Matthew Pennycook 24,384 52.2 +3.0
Conservative Matt Hartley 12,438 26.6 +2.1
UKIP Ryan Acty11 3,888 8.3 N/A
Green Abbey Akinoshun12 2,991 6.4 +3.8
Liberal Democrat Tom Holder13 2,645 5.7 -12.5
TUSC Lynne Chamberlain 370 0.8 +0.1
Majority 11,946 25.6 +0.9
Turnout 46,716 63.7 +0.8

Leave Vote: 34.7%

Sitting MP: Matthew Pennycook (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Lewisham Deptford

2010 Result:
Conservative: 5551 (13.5%)
Labour: 22132 (53.7%)
Lib Dem: 9633 (23.4%)
Green: 2772 (6.7%)
Others: 1132 (2.7%)
MAJORITY: 12499 (30.3%)

2015 Result:
Labour Vicky Foxcroft 28,572 60.2 +6.6
Conservative Bim Afolami 7,056 14.9 +1.4
Green John Coughlin 5,932 12.5 +5.8
Liberal Democrat Michael Bukola 2,497 5.3 -18.1
UKIP Massimo DiMambro 2,013 4.2 N/A
People Before Profit Helen Mercer 666 1.4 N/A
Christian Peoples Malcolm Martin 300 0.6 -0.5
TUSC Chris Flood 286 0.6 N/A
Democratic Reform Phil Badger 74 0.2 N/A
Independent David Harvey 30 0.1 N/A
Majority 21,516 45.4 +15.1
Turnout 47,426 64.6 +3.1

Leave Vote: 24.4%

Sitting MP: Vicky Foxcroft (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Lewisham East

2010 Result:
Conservative: 9850 (23.6%)
Labour: 17966 (43.1%)
Lib Dem: 11750 (28.2%)
Green: 624 (1.5%)
UKIP: 771 (1.8%)
English Dem: 426 (1%)
Others: 332 (0.8%)
MAJORITY: 6216 (14.9%)

2015 Result:
Labour Heidi Alexander 23,907 55.7 +12.6
Conservative Peter Fortune 9,574 22.3 -1.3
UKIP Anne Waters 3,886 9.1 +7.2
Liberal Democrat Julia Fletcher 2,455 5.7 -22.4
Green Störm Poorun 2,429 5.7 +4.2
People Before Profit Nick Long 390 0.9 +0.1
Christian Peoples Maureen Martin 282 0.7 N/A
Majority 14,333 33.4 +18.5
Turnout 42,923 64.1 +0.8

Leave Vote: 35.4%

Sitting MP: Heidi Alexander (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Lewisham West & Penge

2010 Result:
Conservative: 11489 (25.5%)
Labour: 18501 (41.1%)
Lib Dem: 12673 (28.1%)
Green: 931 (2.1%)
UKIP: 1117 (2.5%)
Others: 317 (0.7%)
MAJORITY: 5828 (12.9%)

2015 Result:
Labour Jim Dowd 24,347 50.6 +9.5
Conservative Russell Jackson 11,633 24.2 -1.3
Green Tom Chance 4,077 8.5 +6.4
UKIP Gary Harding 3,764 7.8 +5.3
Liberal Democrat Alex Feakes 3,709 7.7 -20.4
TUSC Martin Powell-Davies 391 0.8 N/A
Independent David Hansom 160 0.3 N/A
Liberty GB Dr George Whale 84 0.1 N/A
Majority 12,714 26.4 +13.5
Turnout 48,125 66.6 +1.4

Leave Vote: 346%

Sitting MP: Jim Dowd (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Old Bexley & Sidcup

2010 Result:
Conservative: 24625 (54.1%)
Labour: 8768 (19.3%)
Lib Dem: 6996 (15.4%)
BNP: 2132 (4.7%)
Green: 371 (0.8%)
UKIP: 1532 (3.4%)
English Dem: 520 (1.1%)
Others: 548 (1.2%)
MAJORITY: 15857 (34.9%)

2015 Result:
Conservative James Brokenshire 24,682 52.8 −1.3
Labour Ibby Mehmet 8,879 19.0 −0.3
UKIP Catherine Reilly 8,528 18.2 +14.9
Liberal Democrat Jennifer Keen 1,644 3.5 −11.9
Green Derek Moran 1,336 2.9 +2.0
National Health Action Bob Gill 1,216 2.6 N/A
Christian Laurence Williams 245 0.5 N/A
BNP Nicola Finch 218 0.5 −4.2
Majority 15,803 33.8 −1.1
Turnout 46,748 70.8 +1.5

Leave Vote: 62.4%

Sitting MP: James Brokenshire (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Orpington

2010 Result:
Conservative: 29200 (59.7%)
Labour: 4400 (9%)
Lib Dem: 12000 (24.5%)
BNP: 1241 (2.5%)
Green: 511 (1%)
UKIP: 1360 (2.8%)
English Dem: 199 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 17200 (35.2%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Jo Johnson 28,152 57.4 -2.3
UKIP Idham Ramadi12 8,173 16.7 +13.9
Labour Nigel de Gruchy 7,645 15.6 +6.6
Liberal Democrat Peter Brooks 3,330 6.8 -17.7
Green Tamara Galloway13 1,732 3.5 +2.5
Majority 19,979 40.7 +5.5
Turnout 49,032 72.6 +0.4

Leave Vote: 56.2%

Sitting MP: Jo Johnson (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE

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LBC Book Club: Iain Dale talks to A P McCoy

Champion Jockey A P McCoy discusses his career in horseracing.

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Radio

ALERT: Join Shelagh Fogarty And Me For LBC's Local Election Night Show

3 May 2017 at 21:19

I hope you’ll join Shelagh Fogarty and me for LBC’s Local Election Night Show from 10pm on Thursday evening. We’re going right through until 4am covering the county counil results and some of the mayoral contests.

Between 10pm and midnight, joining us live in the studio will be…

  • Michael Gove
  • Nigel Farage
  • Emily Thornberry
  • Simon Hughes
  • Gareth Knight, LBC’s Elections Analyst

Labour’s Elections Coordinator Andrew Gwynne will also join us, and later we’ll be joined in the studio by Local Government & Communities Minister Gavin Barwell and the LibDem leader in the House of Lords, Dick Newby. We’ll have lots of other guests on the line including Alex Salmond.

We’ll be streaming the whole six hours live on Facebook Live and we’ll have a three hour start on the BBC’s coverage.

You can listen to LBC on 97.3FM in London, on your DAB radio, via Freeview, Sky, Freesat or by downloading the LBC App on iPhone or Android.

If you’re at a County Council count do email me gossip, insight or results to iain@lbc.co.uk or tweet me @iaindale.

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Charles in Enfield & Iain Go Head to Head Over McDonnell & Corbyn

I'm a repeater apparently.

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General Election Predictions

General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 54. Wales - Mid Glamorgan

3 May 2017 at 11:55

MID GLAMORGAN

Seats: 5
Current Political Makeup: Lab 5
Predicted Political Makeup after June 8: Con 1, Lab 4

1. Bridgend

2010 Result:
Conservative: 11668 (30.4%)
Labour: 13931 (36.3%)
Lib Dem: 8658 (22.6%)
Plaid Cymru: 2269 (5.9%)
BNP: 1020 (2.7%)
UKIP: 801 (2.1%)
MAJORITY: 2263 (5.9%)

2015 Result:
Labour Madeleine Moon 14,624 37.1 +0.7
Conservative Meirion Jenkins 12,697 32.2 +1.8
UKIP Caroline Jones 5,911 15.0 +12.9
Plaid Cymru James Christopher Radcliffe 9 2,784 7.1 +1.1
Liberal Democrat Anita Dawn Davies 10 1,648 4.2 −18.4
Independent Les Tallon Morris 763 1.9 N/A
Green Tony White 736 1.9 N/A
TUSC Aaron David 118 0.3 N/A
Pirate David A Elston 106 0.3 N/A
National Front Adam John Lloyd 66 0.2 N/A
Majority 1,927 4.9 −1.0
Turnout 39,453 65.8 +0.5

2015 Result:
Labour Madeleine Moon 14,624 37.1 +0.7
Conservative Meirion Jenkins 12,697 32.2 +1.8
UKIP Caroline Jones 5,911 15.0 +12.9
Plaid Cymru James Christopher Radcliffe 9 2,784 7.1 +1.1
Liberal Democrat Anita Dawn Davies 10 1,648 4.2 −18.4
Independent Les Tallon Morris 763 1.9 N/A
Green Tony White 736 1.9 N/A
TUSC Aaron David 118 0.3 N/A
Pirate David A Elston 106 0.3 N/A
National Front Adam John Lloyd 66 0.2 N/A
Majority 1,927 4.9 −1.0
Turnout 39,453 65.8 +0.5

Leave Vote: 50.3%

Sitting MP: Madeleine Moon (Lab)
Prediction: Conservative gain

2. Cynon Valley

2010 Result:
Conservative: 3010 (10.1%)
Labour: 15681 (52.5%)
Lib Dem: 4120 (13.8%)
Plaid Cymru: 6064 (20.3%)
UKIP: 1001 (3.4%)
MAJORITY: 9617 (32.2%)

2015 Result:
Labour Ann Clwyd 14,532 47.7 −4.8
Plaid Cymru Cerith Griffiths 5,126 16.8 −3.5
UKIP Rebecca Rees-Evans 4,976 16.3 +13.0
Conservative Keith Dewhurst 3,676 12.1 +2.0
Liberal Democrat Angharad Jones 830 2.7 −11.1
Green John Matthews 799 2.6 N/A
Socialist Labour Chris Beggs 533 1.7 N/A
Majority 9,406 30.9 −1.3
Turnout 30,472 59.3 +0.3

Leave Vote: 56.7%

Sitting MP: Ann Clwyd (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

4. Ogmore

2010 Result:
Conservative: 5398 (15.6%)
Labour: 18644 (53.8%)
Lib Dem: 5260 (15.2%)
Plaid Cymru: 3326 (9.6%)
BNP: 1242 (3.6%)
UKIP: 780 (2.3%)
MAJORITY: 13246 (38.2%)

2015 Result:
Labour Chris Elmore 7 12,383 52.6 −0.3
UKIP Glenda Davies 3,808 16.2 +1.2
Plaid Cymru Abi Thomas 3,683 15.7 +5.6
Conservative Alex Williams 2,956 12.6 −3.3
Liberal Democrat Janet Ellard 702 3.0 −0.0
Majority 8,575 36.4 −0.6
Turnout 23,532 43 −20.7

Leave Vote: 58.9%

Sitting MP: Chris Elmore (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

5. Pontypridd

2010 Result:
Conservative: 5932 (16.2%)
Labour: 14220 (38.8%)
Lib Dem: 11435 (31.2%)
Plaid Cymru: 2673 (7.3%)
Green: 361 (1%)
UKIP: 1229 (3.4%)
Christian: 365 (1%)
Others: 456 (1.2%)
MAJORITY: 2785 (7.6%)

2015 Result:
Labour Owen Smith 15,554 41.1 +2.3
Conservative Ann-Marie Mason 6,569 17.3 +1.1
UKIP Andrew Tomkinson 5,085 13.4 +10.0
Liberal Democrat Mike Powell 4,904 12.9 −18.3
Plaid Cymru Osian Lewis 4,348 11.5 +4.2
Green Katy Clay 992 2.6 +1.6
Socialist Labour Damien Biggs 332 0.9 −0.3
TUSC Esther Pearson 98 0.3 N/A
Majority 8,985 23.7 +16.1
Turnout 37,882 64.3 +1.3

Sitting MP: Owen Smith (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

6. Rhondda

2010 Result:
Conservative: 1993 (6.4%)
Labour: 17183 (55.3%)
Lib Dem: 3309 (10.6%)
Plaid Cymru: 5630 (18.1%)
UKIP: 358 (1.2%)
Independent: 2599 (8.4%)
MAJORITY: 11553 (37.2%)

2015 Result:
Labour Chris Bryant 15,976 50.7 −4.6
Plaid Cymru Shelley Rees-Owen 8,521 27.0 +8.9
UKIP Ron Hughes 3,998 12.7 +11.5
Conservative Lyn Hudson 2,116 6.7 +0.3
Liberal Democrat George Summers 474 1.5 −9.1
Green Lisa Rapado 453 1.4 N/A
Majority 7,455 23.6 −13.6
Turnout 31,538 60.9 +0.6

Leave Vote: 60%

Sitting MP: Chris Bryant (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

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General Election Predictions

General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 53. Wales - Gwent

3 May 2017 at 11:31

GWENT

Seats: 8
Current Political Makeup: Con 1, Lab 7
Predicted Political Makeup after June 8: Con 2, Lab 6
Revised: Con 1, Lab 7

1. Blaenau Gwent

2010 Result:
Conservative: 2265 (7%)
Labour: 16974 (52.4%)
Lib Dem: 3285 (10.1%)
Plaid Cymru: 1333 (4.1%)
BNP: 1211 (3.7%)
UKIP: 488 (1.5%)
Peoples Voice: 6458 (19.9%)
Others: 381 (1.2%)
MAJORITY: 10516 (32.5%)

2015 Result:
Labour Nick Smith 18,380 58.0 +5.6
UKIP Susan Boucher 5,677 17.9 +16.4
Conservative Tracey Michelle West 8 3,419 10.8 +3.8
Plaid Cymru Steffan Lewis 2,849 9.0 +4.9
Green Mark Pond 738 2.3 New
Liberal Democrat Samuel Rees 620 2.0 −8.2
Majority 12,703 40.1 +5.3
Turnout 31,683 61.7 −0.1

Leave Vote: 62%

Sitting MP: Nick Smith (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

2. Caerphilly

2010 Result:
Conservative: 6622 (17.1%)
Labour: 17377 (44.9%)
Lib Dem: 5688 (14.7%)
Plaid Cymru: 6460 (16.7%)
BNP: 1635 (4.2%)
UKIP: 910 (2.4%)
MAJORITY: 10755 (27.8%)

2015 Result:
Labour Wayne David 5 17,864 44.3 −0.6
UKIP Sam Gould 6 7,791 19.3 +16.9
Conservative Leo Docherty 7 6,683 16.6 -0.5
Plaid Cymru Beci Newton 8 5,895 14.6 -2.1
Green Katy Beddoe9 937 2.3 N/A
Liberal Democrat Aladdin Ayesh10 935 2.3 -12.4
TUSC Jaime Davies 178 0.4 N/A
Majority 10,073 25.0 -2.8
Turnout 40,283 63.3 +1.0

Leave Vote: 55.1%

Sitting MP: Wayne David (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

3. Islwyn

2010 Result:
Conservative: 4854 (14%)
Labour: 17069 (49.2%)
Lib Dem: 3597 (10.4%)
Plaid Cymru: 4518 (13%)
BNP: 1320 (3.8%)
UKIP: 930 (2.7%)
Independent: 1495 (4.3%)
Others: 901 (2.6%)
MAJORITY: 12215 (35.2%)

2015 Result:
Labour Co-op Christopher James Evans 17,336 49.0 −0.2
UKIP Joe Smyth 6,932 19.6 +16.9
Conservative Laura Anne Jones 5,366 15.2 +1.2
Plaid Cymru Lyn Ackerman 3,794 10.7 −2.3
Liberal Democrat Brendan D’Cruz6 950 2.7 −7.7
Green Peter Varley7 659 1.9 N/A
Monster Raving Loony Baron von Magpie 213 0.6 N/A
TUSC Joshua Rawcliffe 151 0.4 N/A
Majority 10,404 29.4 −5.8
Turnout 35,401 63.6 +0.3

Leave Vote: 58.9%

Sitting MP: Chris Evans (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

4. Merthyr Tydfil & Rhymney

2010 Result:
Conservative: 2412 (7.5%)
Labour: 14007 (43.7%)
Lib Dem: 9951 (31%)
Plaid Cymru: 1621 (5.1%)
BNP: 1173 (3.7%)
UKIP: 872 (2.7%)
Independent: 1845 (5.8%)
Others: 195 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 4056 (12.6%)

2015 Result:
Labour Gerald Jones7 17,619 53.9 +10.2
UKIP David Rowlands8 6,106 18.7 +15.9
Conservative Bill Rees 3,292 10.1 +2.5
Plaid Cymru Rhayna Pritchard 3,099 9.5 +4.4
Liberal Democrat Bob Griffin9 1,351 4.1 −26.9
Green Elspeth Parris10 603 1.8 n/a
Independent Eddy Blanche 459 1.4 n/a
Communist Robert Griffiths 186 0.6 n/a
Majority 11,513 35.2 +22.6
Turnout 32,715 53.0 −5.6

Leave Vote: 58.4%

Sitting MP: Dai Havard (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

5. Monmouth

2010 Result:
Conservative: 22466 (48.3%)
Labour: 12041 (25.9%)
Lib Dem: 9026 (19.4%)
Plaid Cymru: 1273 (2.7%)
Green: 587 (1.3%)
UKIP: 1126 (2.4%)
MAJORITY: 10425 (22.4%)

2015 Result:
Conservative David Davies 23,701 49.9 +1.6
Labour Ruth Jones 12,719 26.8 +0.9
UKIP Gareth Dunn 4,942 10.4 +8.0
Liberal Democrat Veronica German 2,496 5.3 −14.1
Plaid Cymru Jonathan Clark 1,875 3.9 +1.2
Green Christopher Were 1,629 3.4 +2.2
English Democrat Stephen Morris 100 0.2 n/a
Majority 10,982 23.1 +0.7
Turnout 47,462 76.2 +4.0

Leave Vote: 48.1%

Sitting MP: David T C Davies (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

6. Newport East

2010 Result:
Conservative: 7918 (23%)
Labour: 12744 (37%)
Lib Dem: 11094 (32.2%)
Plaid Cymru: 724 (2.1%)
BNP: 1168 (3.4%)
UKIP: 677 (2%)
Others: 123 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 1650 (4.8%)

2015 Result:
Labour Jessica Morden 14,290 40.7 +3.7
Conservative Natasha Asghar 9,585 27.3 +4.3
UKIP David Stock 6,466 18.4 +16.5
Liberal Democrat Paul Halliday 2,251 6.4 -25.8
Plaid Cymru Tony Salkeld6 1,231 3.5 +1.4
Green David Mclean7 887 2.5 N/A
Socialist Labour Shangara Singh Bhatoe 398 1.1 +0.8
Majority 4,705 13.4 +8.6
Turnout 35,108 62.7 -0.9

Leave Vote: 59.3%

Sitting MP: Jessica Morden (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Jessica Morden might be in for a nervous campaign here, but she will probably pull through.

7. Newport West

2010 Result:
Conservative: 12845 (32.3%)
Labour: 16389 (41.3%)
Lib Dem: 6587 (16.6%)
Plaid Cymru: 1122 (2.8%)
BNP: 1183 (3%)
Green: 450 (1.1%)
UKIP: 1144 (2.9%)
MAJORITY: 3544 (8.9%)

2015 Result:
Labour Paul Flynn6 16,633 41.2 -0.1
Conservative Nick Webb 13,123 32.5 +0.2
UKIP Gordon Norrie 6,134 15.2 +12.3
Plaid Cymru Simon Coopey7 1,604 4.0 +1.2
Liberal Democrat Ed Townsend 1,581 3.9 −12.7
Green Pippa Bartolotti 1,272 3.2 +2.1
Majority 3,510 8.7 −0.2
Turnout 40,347 64.9 0.1

Leave Vote: 53.7%

Sitting MP: Paul Flynn (Lab)
Prediction: Conservative gain
Revised: Lab hold

This seat should go Tory this time but if it isn’t it can be blamed on the Tories imposing a candidate with no links to the area and without any selection competition.

8. Torfaen

2010 Result:
Conservative: 7541 (20%)
Labour: 16847 (44.8%)
Lib Dem: 6264 (16.6%)
Plaid Cymru: 2005 (5.3%)
BNP: 1657 (4.4%)
Green: 438 (1.2%)
UKIP: 862 (2.3%)
Independent: 1419 (3.8%)
Others: 607 (1.6%)
MAJORITY: 9306 (24.7%)

2015 Result:
Labour Nick Thomas-Symonds 16,938 44.6 −0.2
Conservative Graham Smith 8,769 23.1 +3.1
UKIP Ken Beswick 7,203 19.0 +16.7
Plaid Cymru Boydd Hackley-Green 2,169 5.7 +0.4
Liberal Democrat Alison Willott 1,271 3.4 −13.2
Green Matt Cooke5 746 2.0 +0.8
Socialist Labour John Cox 697 1.8 N/A
Communist Mark Griffiths 144 0.4 N/A
Majority 8,169 21.5 −3.2
Turnout 37,937 61.3 -0.2

Leave Vote: 53.5%

Sitting MP: Nick Thomas-Symonds (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

A few elections ago Labour was polling 30k votes here. That number has nearly halved. The Tories have increased their vote over the years and are now pushing 10k. They have this seat in their sights, but a lot will depend on their local campaign.

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LBC 97.3: Tom Swarbrick with an Amusing Take on Obama's Inauguration

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General Election Predictions

General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 52. Nottinghamshire

3 May 2017 at 08:57

NOTTINGHAMSHIRE

Seats: 11
Current Political Makeup: Con 4, Lab 7
Predicted Political Makeup after June 8: Con 6, Lab 5

1. Ashfield

2010 Result:
Conservative: 10698 (22.2%)
Labour: 16239 (33.7%)
Lib Dem: 16047 (33.3%)
BNP: 2781 (5.8%)
UKIP: 933 (1.9%)
English Dem: 1102 (2.3%)
Independent: 396 (0.8%)
MAJORITY: 192 (0.4%)

2015 Result:
Labour Gloria De Piero 19,448 41.0 +7.3
Conservative Helen Harrison6 10,628 22.4 +0.2
UKIP Simon Ashcroft 10,150 21.4 +19.5
Liberal Democrat Philip Smith7 7,030 14.8 −18.5
Justice for Men and Boys Mike Buchanan 153 0.3 +0.3
Majority 8,820 18.6 +18.2
Turnout 47,409 61.5 −0.8

Leave Vote: 70.5%

Sitting MP: Gloria de Piero (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

With a majority of 8,800 you’d think Gloria de Piero would think of this as a safe seat, but it is nothing of the sort. It only has that level of majority because the opposition vote is split equally between UKIP and the Conservatives. If the UKIP vote collapses to its 2010 levels this could be one of the more surprising results of the night. For now, I reckon de Piero’s high profile and apparent local popularity will see her through.

2. Bassetlaw

2010 Result:
Conservative: 16803 (33.9%)
Labour: 25018 (50.5%)
Lib Dem: 5570 (11.2%)
UKIP: 1779 (3.6%)
Independent: 407 (0.8%)
MAJORITY: 8215 (16.6%)

2015 Result:
Labour John Mann 23,965 48.6 -1.8
Conservative Sarah Downes 15,122 30.7 -3.2
UKIP Dave Scott 7,865 16.0 +12.4
Liberal Democrat Leon Duveen 1,331 2.7 -8.5
Green Kristopher Wragg 1,006 2.0 N/A
Majority 8,843 17.9 +1.3
Turnout 49,289 63.6 -1.2

Leave Vote: 68.3%

Sitting MP: John Mann (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

3. Broxtowe

2010 Result:
Conservative: 20585 (39%)
Labour: 20196 (38.3%)
Lib Dem: 8907 (16.9%)
BNP: 1422 (2.7%)
Green: 423 (0.8%)
UKIP: 1194 (2.3%)
MAJORITY: 389 (0.7%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Anna Soubry 24,163 45.2 +6.2
Labour Nick Palmer 19,876 37.2 -1.1
UKIP Frank Dunne 5,674 10.6 +8.4
Liberal Democrat Stan Heptinstall 2,120 4.0 -12.9
Green David Kirwan 1,544 2.9 +2.1
Justice for Men and Boys Ray Barry 63 0.1 N/A
Majority 4,287 8.0 +7.3
Turnout 53,440 74.4 +1.2

Leave Vote: 52.5%

Sitting MP: Anna Soubry (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

This is a seat Labour will have its eye on, on the assumption that UKIP could suck away a lot of Conservative votes from the vocal Remain supporter Anna Soubry. However, I think she has enough of a buffer to fight them off.

4. Gedling

2010 Result:
Conservative: 17962 (37.3%)
Labour: 19821 (41.1%)
Lib Dem: 7350 (15.3%)
BNP: 1598 (3.3%)
UKIP: 1459 (3%)
MAJORITY: 1859 (3.9%)

2015 Result:
Labour Vernon Coaker 20,307 42.3 +1.2
Conservative Carolyn Abbott 17,321 36.1 −1.2
UKIP Lee Waters 6,930 14.4 +11.4
Liberal Democrat Robert Swift 1,906 4.0 −11.3
Green Jim Norris 1,534 3.2 +3.2
Majority 2,986 6.2 +2.3
Turnout 47,998 68.5 +0.6

Sitting MP: Vernon Coaker (Lab)
Prediction: Conservative gain

Ever since Labour won the seat from Andrew Mitchell in 1997 their hold on it has been somewhat precarious. Coaker will be a casualty of the May surge here.

5. Mansfield

2010 Result:
Conservative: 12741 (26.3%)
Labour: 18753 (38.7%)
Lib Dem: 7469 (15.4%)
BNP: 2108 (4.4%)
UKIP: 2985 (6.2%)
Others: 4339 (9%)
MAJORITY: 6012 (12.4%)

2015 Result:
Labour Alan Meale8 18,603 39.4 +0.7
Conservative Andrea Clarke9 13,288 28.2 +1.8
UKIP Sid Pepper10 11,850 25.1 +18.9
Liberal Democrat Tony Rogers11 1,642 3.5 -12.0
Green Paul Frost12 1,486 3.1 +3.1
TUSC Karen Seymour11 324 0.7 +0.7
Majority 5,315 11.3 -1.1
Turnout 47,193 60.9 +0.5

Leave Vote: 70.1%

Sitting MP: Sir Alan Meale (Lab)
Prediction: Conservative gain

This seat hasn’t returned a Tory MP in living memory. I expect that to change on June 9th. The UKIP vote here is huge and if only a quarter of it went to the Tories it could e enough to see them take the seat.

6. Newark

2010 Result:
Conservative: 27590 (53.9%)
Labour: 11438 (22.3%)
Lib Dem: 10246 (20%)
UKIP: 1954 (3.8%)
MAJORITY: 16152 (31.5%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Robert Jenrick 29,834 57.0 +3.2
Labour Michael Payne 11,360 21.7 -0.6
UKIP Brian Mapletoft 6,294 12.0 +8.2
Liberal Democrat David Dobbie 2,385 4.6 -15.4
Green Elayne Forster 1,792 3.4 N/A
Consensus – The Community Party Helen Tyrer 637 1.2 N/A
Majority 18,474 35.3 +3.8
Turnout 52,302 70.9 -0.5

Leave Vote: 55.7%

Sitting MP: Robert Jenrick (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

7. Nottingham East

2010 Result:
Conservative: 7846 (23.7%)
Labour: 15022 (45.4%)
Lib Dem: 8053 (24.3%)
Green: 928 (2.8%)
UKIP: 1138 (3.4%)
Christian: 125 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 6969 (21%)

2015 Result:
Labour Co-op Chris Leslie 19,208 54.6 +9.2
Conservative Garry Hickton 7,314 20.8 -2.9
UKIP Fran Loi8 3,501 9.9 +6.5
Green Antonia Zenkevitch 9 3,473 9.9 +7.1
Liberal Democrat Tad Jones 1,475 4.2 -20.1
Independent Seb Soar 10 141 0.4 +0.4
Independent James Stephenson 97 0.3 +0.3
Majority 11,894 33.8 +12.8
Turnout 58.2 +1.8

Leave Vote: 42.6%

Sitting MP: Chris Leslie (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

8. Nottingham North

2010 Result:
Conservative: 8508 (24.8%)
Labour: 16646 (48.6%)
Lib Dem: 5849 (17.1%)
BNP: 1944 (5.7%)
UKIP: 1338 (3.9%)
MAJORITY: 8138 (23.7%)

2015 Result:
Labour Graham Allen 19,283 54.6 +6.0
Conservative Louise Burfitt-Dons 7,423 21.0 −3.8
UKIP Stephen Crosby7 6,542 18.5 +14.6
Green Katharina Boettge8 1,088 3.1 +3.1
Liberal Democrat Tony Sutton 847 2.4 −14.7
TUSC Cathy Meadows 160 0.5 +0.5
Majority 11,860 33.6
Turnout 34,285 53.6 −0.6

Leave Vote: 63.3%

Sitting MP: Graham Allen (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

9. Nottingham South

2010 Result:
Conservative: 13437 (32.9%)
Labour: 15209 (37.3%)
Lib Dem: 9406 (23.1%)
BNP: 1140 (2.8%)
Green: 630 (1.5%)
UKIP: 967 (2.4%)
MAJORITY: 1772 (4.3%)

2015 Result:
Labour Lilian Greenwood8 20,697 47.6 +10.3
Conservative Jane Hunt9 13,761 31.7 −1.3
UKIP David Hollas10 4,900 11.3 +8.9
Green Adam McGregor11 2,345 5.4 +3.9
Liberal Democrat Deborah Newton-Cook12 1,532 3.5 -19.5
TUSC Andrew Clayworth 230 0.5 +0.5
Majority 6,936 16.0
Turnout 43,465 63.0 +2.5

Leave Vote: 45.6%

Sitting MP: Lilian Greenwood (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Not the biggest Labour majority, but I reckon this is safe for Lilian Greenwood due to the comparatively small UKIP vote.

10. Rushcliffe

2010 Result:
Conservative: 27470 (51.2%)
Labour: 11128 (20.7%)
Lib Dem: 11659 (21.7%)
Green: 1251 (2.3%)
UKIP: 2179 (4.1%)
MAJORITY: 15811 (29.5%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Kenneth Clarke 28,354 51.4 +0.2
Labour David Mellen 14,525 26.3 +5.6
UKIP Matthew Faithfull9 5,943 10.8 +6.7
Green Richard Mallender 3,559 6.5 +4.2
Liberal Democrat Robert Johnston 2,783 5.0 −16.7
Majority 13,829 25.1 −4.4
Turnout 55,164 75.3 +1.7

Leave Vote: 41.5%

Sitting MP: Kenneth Clarke (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

11. Sherwood

2010 Result:
Conservative: 19211 (39.2%)
Labour: 18997 (38.8%)
Lib Dem: 7283 (14.9%)
BNP: 1754 (3.6%)
UKIP: 1490 (3%)
Independent: 219 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 214 (0.4%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Mark Spencer 22,833 45.0 +5.8
Labour Léonie Mathers 18,186 35.9 −2.9
UKIP Sally Chadd9 7,399 14.6 +11.6
Green Lydia Davies-Bright10 1,108 2.2 +2.2
Liberal Democrat Dan Mosley11 1,094 2.2 −12.7
Class War Dave Perkins 78 0.2 0.2
Majority 4,647 9.2
Turnout 50,698 69.1

Leave Vote: 63.7%

Sitting MP: Mark Spencer (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

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LBC Book Club: Iain Dale talks to Peter Hain & Toby Harnden

Peter Hain discusses OUTSIDE IN and Toby Harnden talks about his history of the Welsh Guards.

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General Election Predictions

General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 51. South Yorkshire

2 May 2017 at 22:27

SOUTH YORKSHIRE

Seats: 14
Current Political Makeup: Lab 13, LibDem 1
Predicted Political Makeup after June 8: Con 1, Lab 12, LibDem 1

1. Barnsley Central

2010 Result:
Conservative: 6388 (17.3%)
Labour: 17487 (47.3%)
Lib Dem: 6394 (17.3%)
BNP: 3307 (8.9%)
UKIP: 1727 (4.7%)
Independent: 732 (2%)
Others: 966 (2.6%)
MAJORITY: 11093 (30%)

2015 Result:
Labour Dan Jarvis 20,376 55.7 +8.5
UKIP Lee Hunter 7,941 21.7 +17.1
Conservative Kay Carter 5,485 15.0 -2.3
Green Michael Short 938 2.6 N/A
Liberal Democrat John Ridgway 770 2.1 -15.2
TUSC Dave Gibson 573 1.6 N/A
English Democrat Ian Sutton 477 1.3 N/A
Majority 12,435 34.0 +4.0
Turnout 36,560 56.7 +0.2

Leave Vote: 61.2%

Sitting MP: Dan Jarvis (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

2. Barnsley East

2010 Result:
Conservative: 6329 (16.5%)
Labour: 18059 (47%)
Lib Dem: 6969 (18.2%)
BNP: 3301 (8.6%)
UKIP: 1731 (4.5%)
Independent: 712 (1.9%)
Others: 1285 (3.3%)
MAJORITY: 11090 (28.9%)

2015 Result:
Labour Michael Dugher 21,079 54.7 +7.7
UKIP Robert Swiffen 9,045 23.5 +19.0
Conservative Katharine Harborne 5,622 14.6 -1.9
Liberal Democrat Ruth Coleman-Taylor 1,217 3.2 -15.0
Yorkshire First Tony Devoy 647 1.7 N/A
English Democrat Kevin Riddiough 440 1.1 N/A
TUSC Ralph Dyson 364 0.9 N/A
Vapers in Power Billy Marsden 103 0.3 N/A
Majority 12,034 31.2 +2.3
Turnout 38,517 55.7 -0.4

Leave Vote: 71%

Sitting MP: Michael Dugher (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

3. Don Valley

2010 Result:
Conservative: 12877 (29.7%)
Labour: 16472 (37.9%)
Lib Dem: 7422 (17.1%)
BNP: 2112 (4.9%)
UKIP: 1904 (4.4%)
English Dem: 1756 (4%)
Independent: 877 (2%)
MAJORITY: 3595 (8.3%)

2015 Result:
Labour Caroline Flint 19,621 46.2 +8.2
Conservative Carl Jackson 10,736 25.3 -4.4
UKIP Guy Aston 9,963 23.5 +19.1
Liberal Democrat Rene Paterson 1,487 3.5 -13.6
TUSC Steve Williams 437 1.0 +1.0
English Democrat Louise Dutton 242 0.6 -3.5
Majority 8,885 20.9 +12.6
Turnout 42,486 59.6 +0.3

Leave Vote: 68.5%

Sitting MP: Caroline Flint (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

On a massive landslide for the Tories this seat could be in contention for them. But only then.

4. Doncaster Central

2010 Result:
Conservative: 10340 (24.8%)
Labour: 16569 (39.7%)
Lib Dem: 8795 (21.1%)
BNP: 1762 (4.2%)
UKIP: 1421 (3.4%)
English Dem: 1816 (4.4%)
Independent: 970 (2.3%)
Others: 72 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 6229 (14.9%)

2015 Result:
Labour Rosie Winterton 19,840 49.1 +9.4
UKIP Chris Hodgson 9,747 24.1 +20.7
Conservative Zoe Metcalfe 8,386 20.7 −4.0
Liberal Democrat John Brown 1,717 4.2 −16.8
TUSC Mev Akram 421 1.0 +1.0
English Democrat David Burnett 309 0.8 −3.6
Majority 10,093 25.0 +10.1
Turnout 40,420 56.8 +1.3

Leave Vote: 66.7%

Sitting MP: Rosie Winterton (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

5. Doncaster North

2010 Result:
Conservative: 8728 (21%)
Labour: 19637 (47.3%)
Lib Dem: 6174 (14.9%)
BNP: 2818 (6.8%)
UKIP: 1797 (4.3%)
English Dem: 2148 (5.2%)
TUSC: 181 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 10909 (26.3%)

2015 Result:
Labour Ed Miliband 20,708 52.4 +5.1
UKIP Kim Parkinson 8,928 22.6 +18.3
Conservative Mark Fletcher 7,235 18.3 −2.7
Liberal Democrat Penny Baker 1,005 2.5 −12.3
Green Pete Kennedy 757 1.9 +1.9
English Democrat David Allen 448 1.1 −4.0
TUSC Mary Jackson 258 0.7 +0.2
Monster Raving Loony Nick the Flying Brick 162 0.4 +0.4
Majority 11,780 29.8 +3.5
Turnout 39,501 55.7 −1.6

Leave Vote: 71.7%

Sitting MP: Ed Miliband (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

6. Penistone & Stocksbridge

2010 Result:
Conservative: 14516 (31.2%)
Labour: 17565 (37.8%)
Lib Dem: 9800 (21.1%)
BNP: 2207 (4.7%)
UKIP: 1936 (4.2%)
English Dem: 492 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 3049 (6.6%)

2015 Result:
Labour Angela Smith 19,691 42.0 +4.3
Conservative Steven Jackson 12,968 27.7 -3.5
UKIP Graeme Waddicar 10,738 22.9 +18.8
Liberal Democrat Rosalyn Gordon 2,957 6.3 -14.8
English Democrat Colin Porter 500 1.1 0.0
Majority 6,723 14.3
Turnout 46,854 65.9

Sitting MP: Angela Smith (Lab)
Prediction: Conservative gain

The majority here doubled last time but that is a false figure given the quintupling of the UKIP vote. I think Ms Smith is in deep trouble and this seat will be gained by the Tories.,

7. Rother Valley

2010 Result:
Conservative: 13281 (28.4%)
Labour: 19147 (40.9%)
Lib Dem: 8111 (17.3%)
BNP: 3606 (7.7%)
UKIP: 2613 (5.6%)
MAJORITY: 5866 (12.5%)

2015 Result:
Labour Kevin Barron 20,501 43.6 +2.7
UKIP Allen Cowles 13,204 28.1 +22.5
Conservative Gareth Streeter 10,945 23.3 -5.1
Liberal Democrat Robert Teal 1,992 4.2 -13.1
English Democrat Sharon Pilling 377 0.8 N/A
Majority 7,297 15.5 +3.0
Turnout 47,019 63.3

Leave Vote: 66.5%

Sitting MP: Kevin Barron (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

A big UKIP vote here. Could become a marginal and if the Tories get a landslide of 130 seats or over, this could fall.

8. Rotherham

2010 Result:
Conservative: 6279 (16.7%)
Labour: 16741 (44.6%)
Lib Dem: 5994 (16%)
BNP: 3906 (10.4%)
UKIP: 2220 (5.9%)
Independent: 2366 (6.3%)
MAJORITY: 10462 (27.9%)

BY ELECTION
Sarah Champion (Labour) 9866 46.3% (1.7%)
Jane Collins (UKIP) 4648 21.8% (
15.9%)
Marlene Guest (BNP) 1804 8.5% (-1.9%)
Yvonne Ridley (Respect) 1778 8.3% (n/a)
Simon Wilson (Conservative) 1157 5.4% (-11.3%)
David Wildgoose (English Democrats) 703 3.3% (n/a)
Simon Copley (Independent) 582 2.7% (n/a)
Michael Beckett (Liberal Democrat) 451 2.1% (-13.9%)
Ralph Dyson (TUSC) 261 1.2% (n/a)
Paul Dickson (Independent) 51 0.2% (n/a)
Clint Bristow (no description) 29 0.1% (n/a)
MAJORITY 5218 24.5%
Turnout 33.9% (-25.1%)

2015 Result:
Labour Sarah Champion 19,860 52.5 +7.9
UKIP Jane Collins 11,414 30.2 +24.3
Conservative Sebastian Lowe 4,656 12.3 −4.4
Liberal Democrat Janice Middleton 1,093 2.9 −13.1
TUSC Pat McLaughlin 409 1.1 N/A
BNP Adam Walker 225 0.6 −9.8
English Democrat Dean Walker 166 0.4 N/A
Majority 8,446 22.3 −5.6
Turnout 37,823 59.4 +0.4

Leave Vote: 68.8%

Sitting MP: Sarah Champion (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

9. Sheffield Brightside & Hillsborough

2010 Result:
Conservative: 4468 (11.5%)
Labour: 21400 (55%)
Lib Dem: 7768 (20%)
BNP: 3026 (7.8%)
UKIP: 1596 (4.1%)
TUSC: 656 (1.7%)
MAJORITY: 13632 (35%)

2015 Result:
Labour Gill Furniss 14,087 62.5 +5.9
UKIP Steven Winstone 4,497 20.0 -2.1
Liberal Democrat Shaffaq Mohammed 1,385 6.1 +1.6
Conservative Spencer Pitfield 1,267 5.6 -5.4
Green Christine Gilligan Kubo 938 4.2 -0.1
Yorkshire First Stevie Manion 349 1.5 1.5
Give Me Back Elmo Bobby Smith 58 0.2 0.2
Majority 9,590 42.5 +8.8
Turnout 22,581 33.2

Leave Vote: 60%

Sitting MP: Gill Furniss (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

10. Sheffield Central

2010 Result:
Conservative: 4206 (10.1%)
Labour: 17138 (41.3%)
Lib Dem: 16973 (40.9%)
BNP: 903 (2.2%)
Green: 1556 (3.8%)
UKIP: 652 (1.6%)
Independent: 40 (0.1%)
MAJORITY: 165 (0.4%)

2015 Result:
Labour Paul Blomfield 24,308 55.0 +13.7
Green Jillian Creasy 6,999 15.8 +12.1
Conservative Stephanie Roe 4,917 11.1 +1.0
Liberal Democrat Joe Otten 4,278 9.7 -31.2
UKIP Dominic Cook 3,296 7.5 +5.9
Communist Steve Andrew 119 0.3 +0.3
Pirate Andy Halsall 113 0.3 N/A
English Democrat Elizabeth Breed 68 0.2 +0.2
Above and Beyond Party Thom Brown 42 0.1 +0.1
Workers Revolutionary Michael Driver 33 0.1 +0.1
Majority 17,309 39.2 +38.8
Turnout 44,173 57.4 -2.2

Leave Vote: 32%

Sitting MP: Paul Blomfield (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

11. Sheffield Hallam

2010 Result:
Conservative: 12040 (23.5%)
Labour: 8228 (16.1%)
Lib Dem: 27324 (53.4%)
Green: 919 (1.8%)
UKIP: 1195 (2.3%)
English Dem: 586 (1.1%)
Christian: 250 (0.5%)
Independent: 429 (0.8%)
Others: 164 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 15284 (29.9%)

2015 Result:
Liberal Democrat Nick Clegg 22,215 40.0 −13.4
Labour Oliver Coppard 19,862 35.8 +19.7
Conservative Ian Walker 7,544 13.6 −9.9
UKIP Joe Jenkins 3,575 6.4 +4.1
Green Peter Garbutt 1,772 3.2 +1.4
Independent Carlton Reeve 249 0.4 N/A
English Democrat Steve Clegg 167 0.3 −0.8
Independent Jim Stop the Fiasco Wild 97 0.2 N/A
Majority 2,353 4.2 -25.7
Turnout 55,481 75.3 +1.6

Leave Vote: 34%

Sitting MP: Nick Clegg (LibDem)
Prediction: LibDem hold

12. Sheffield Heeley

2010 Result:
Conservative: 7081 (17.3%)
Labour: 17409 (42.6%)
Lib Dem: 11602 (28.4%)
BNP: 2260 (5.5%)
Green: 989 (2.4%)
UKIP: 1530 (3.7%)
MAJORITY: 5807 (14.2%)

2015 Result:
Labour Louise Haigh 20,269 48.2 +5.6
UKIP Howard Denby 7,315 17.4 +13.7
Conservative Stephen Castens 6,792 16.2 -1.2
Liberal Democrat Simon Clement-Jones 4,746 11.3 -17.1
Green Rita Wilcock 2,566 6.1 +3.7
TUSC Alan Munro 238 0.6 +0.6
English Democrat David Haslett 122 0.3 +0.3
Majority 12,954 30.8
Turnout 42,048 60.7

Leave Vote: 57.1%

Sitting MP: Louise Haigh (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

13. Sheffield South East

2010 Result:
Conservative: 7202 (17.4%)
Labour: 20169 (48.7%)
Lib Dem: 9664 (23.3%)
BNP: 2345 (5.7%)
UKIP: 1889 (4.6%)
Others: 139 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 10505 (25.4%)

2015 Result:
Labour Clive Betts 21,439 51.4 +2.7
UKIP Steven Winstone 9,128 21.9 +17.3
Conservative Matt Sleat 7,242 17.4 0.0
Liberal Democrat Gail Smith 2,226 5.3 -18.0
Green Linda Duckenfield 1,117 2.7 +2.7
CISTA Jen Battersby 207 0.5 +0.5
TUSC Ian Whitehouse 185 0.4 +0.4
English Democrat Matthew Roberts 141 0.3 +0.3
Majority 12,311 29.5 +4.1
Turnout 41,685 59.2 -2.3

Leave Vote: 66.3%

Sitting MP: Clive Betts (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

14. Wentworth & Dearne

2010 Result:
Conservative: 7396 (17.6%)
Labour: 21316 (50.6%)
Lib Dem: 6787 (16.1%)
BNP: 3189 (7.6%)
UKIP: 3418 (8.1%)
MAJORITY: 13920 (33.1%)

2015 Result:
Labour John Healey 24,571 56.9 +6.3
UKIP Mike Hookem 10,733 24.9 +16.7
Conservative Michael Naughton 6,441 14.9 -2.7
Liberal Democrat Edwin Simpson 1,135 2.6 -13.5
English Democrat Alan England 309 0.7 N/A
Majority 13,838 32.0
Turnout 43,189 58.1

Leave Vote: 70.3%

Sitting MP: John Healey (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE

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