General Election Predictions

General Election Predictions 46: Nottinghamshire

11 Jan 2015 at 09:00

This is the forty-sixth in a series of blogposts (scroll to the bottom of the article for the others) which will seek to predict the outcome of every seat in the run-up to the next general election. The notion of a universal swing in May 2015 can be totally discounted. Each seat has to be treated on its merits. Feel free to add your comments and tell me where you think I have got things wrong. I will return to update each county analysis when and if I get new information.

Nottinghamshire

Seats: 11
Current Political Makeup: Con 4, Lab 7
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 2, Lab 9

1. Ashfield

2010 Result:
Conservative: 10698 (22.2%)
Labour: 16239 (33.7%)
Lib Dem: 16047 (33.3%)
BNP: 2781 (5.8%)
UKIP: 933 (1.9%)
English Dem: 1102 (2.3%)
Independent: 396 (0.8%)
MAJORITY: 192 (0.4%)

Sitting MP: Gloria de Piero (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Quite how the LibDems nearly won this seat in 2010 I do not know. They went from 14% of the vote to 33%. They are fielding the same candidate this time. However, even if they throw the kitchen sink at Gloria de Piero I don’t think it will be enough. I expect her majority to increase by several thousand.

2. Bassetlaw

2010 Result:
Conservative: 16803 (33.9%)
Labour: 25018 (50.5%)
Lib Dem: 5570 (11.2%)
UKIP: 1779 (3.6%)
Independent: 407 (0.8%)
MAJORITY: 8215 (16.6%)

Sitting MP: John Mann )Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

3. Broxtowe

2010 Result:
Conservative: 20585 (39%)
Labour: 20196 (38.3%)
Lib Dem: 8907 (16.9%)
BNP: 1422 (2.7%)
Green: 423 (0.8%)
UKIP: 1194 (2.3%)
MAJORITY: 389 (0.7%)

Sitting MP: Anna Soubry (Con)
Prediction: Labour gain

Another one of those seats where Labour has to win if Ed Miliband has any hope of gaining any sort power. Anna Soubry has been a star of the 2010-15 Parliament and it will be sad to see her lose.

4. Gedling

2010 Result:
Conservative: 17962 (37.3%)
Labour: 19821 (41.1%)
Lib Dem: 7350 (15.3%)
BNP: 1598 (3.3%)
UKIP: 1459 (3%)
MAJORITY: 1859 (3.9%)

Sitting MP: Vernon Coaker (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Ever since Labour won the seat from Andrew Mitchell in 1997 their hold on it has been somewhat precarious. Coaker will win again, but he will still have a few butterflies at the count.

5. Mansfield

2010 Result:
Conservative: 12741 (26.3%)
Labour: 18753 (38.7%)
Lib Dem: 7469 (15.4%)
BNP: 2108 (4.4%)
UKIP: 2985 (6.2%)
Others: 4339 (9%)
MAJORITY: 6012 (12.4%)

Sitting MP: Sir Alan Meale (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Labour are said to be nervous about UKIP eating into their vote here, but it is difficult to think this seat could return anything other than a Labour MP.

6. Newark

2010 Result:
Conservative: 27590 (53.9%)
Labour: 11438 (22.3%)
Lib Dem: 10246 (20%)
UKIP: 1954 (3.8%)
MAJORITY: 16152 (31.5%)

Sitting MP: Robert Jenrick (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Safe seat.

7. Nottingham East

2010 Result:
Conservative: 7846 (23.7%)
Labour: 15022 (45.4%)
Lib Dem: 8053 (24.3%)
Green: 928 (2.8%)
UKIP: 1138 (3.4%)
Christian: 125 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 6969 (21%)

Sitting MP: Chris Leslie (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Chris Leslie will be a big player in Labour’s future whatever the result of the next election. He will win again here.

8. Nottingham North

2010 Result:
Conservative: 8508 (24.8%)
Labour: 16646 (48.6%)
Lib Dem: 5849 (17.1%)
BNP: 1944 (5.7%)
UKIP: 1338 (3.9%)
MAJORITY: 8138 (23.7%)

Sitting MP: Graham Allen (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

9. Nottingham South

2010 Result:
Conservative: 13437 (32.9%)
Labour: 15209 (37.3%)
Lib Dem: 9406 (23.1%)
BNP: 1140 (2.8%)
Green: 630 (1.5%)
UKIP: 967 (2.4%)
MAJORITY: 1772 (4.3%)

Sitting MP: Lilian Greenwood (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Much will depend here on how the LibDem vote splinters. There is a strong Tory vote here and it should be remembered that until 1992 this was a Tory seat. The LibDem vote rose last time because of the student vote.

10. Rushcliffe

2010 Result:
Conservative: 27470 (51.2%)
Labour: 11128 (20.7%)
Lib Dem: 11659 (21.7%)
Green: 1251 (2.3%)
UKIP: 2179 (4.1%)
MAJORITY: 15811 (29.5%)

Sitting MP: Kenneth Clarke (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Safe seat.

11. Sherwood

2010 Result:
Conservative: 19211 (39.2%)
Labour: 18997 (38.8%)
Lib Dem: 7283 (14.9%)
BNP: 1754 (3.6%)
UKIP: 1490 (3%)
Independent: 219 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 214 (0.4%)

Sitting MP: Mark Spencer (Con)
Prediction: Labour gain

Mark Spencer did brilliantly to regain a seat the Tories last won in 1987 but it’s highly doubtful he can hang on to it in 2015.

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE

OUT NOW! The Politicos Guide to the General Election (by Iain Dale, Greg Callus, Robert Waller & Daniel Hamilton) £15.99 from Politicos.co.uk or £16.58 from Amazon. Also available as an eBook from Politicos.co.uk at £9.99 and Amazon at £10.19

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General Election Predictions

General Election Predictions 45: Warwickshire

10 Jan 2015 at 17:05

This is the forty-fifth in a series of blogposts (scroll to the bottom of the article for the others) which will seek to predict the outcome of every seat in the run-up to the next general election. The notion of a universal swing in May 2015 can be totally discounted. Each seat has to be treated on its merits. Feel free to add your comments and tell me where you think I have got things wrong. I will return to update each county analysis when and if I get new information.

Warwickshire

Seats: 6
Current Political Makeup: Con 6
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 4, Lab 2

1. Kenilworth & Southam

2010 Result:
Conservative: 25945 (53.6%)
Labour: 6949 (14.3%)
Lib Dem: 13393 (27.7%)
Green: 568 (1.2%)
UKIP: 1214 (2.5%)
Independent: 362 (0.7%)
MAJORITY: 12552 (25.9%)

Sitting MP: Jeremy Wright (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Safe seat.

2. North Warwickshire

2010 Result:
Conservative: 18993 (40.2%)
Labour: 18939 (40.1%)
Lib Dem: 5481 (11.6%)
BNP: 2106 (4.5%)
UKIP: 1335 (2.8%)
English Dem: 411 (0.9%)
MAJORITY: 54 (0.1%)

Sitting MP: Dan Byles (Con)
Prediction: Labour gain

Dan Byles is standing down, presumably because he saw the writing on the wall. Whatever chance the Tories had of retaining this most marginal of marginals probably disappeared with that decision.

3. Nuneaton

2010 Result:
Conservative: 18536 (41.5%)
Labour: 16467 (36.9%)
Lib Dem: 6846 (15.3%)
BNP: 2797 (6.3%)
MAJORITY: 2069 (4.6%)

Sitting MP: Marcus Jones (Con)
Prediction: Labour gain

UKIP didn’t stand here last time. The result in 2015 might well depend on whose votes they take. And Marcus Jones will know that.

4. Rugby

2010 Result:
Conservative: 20901 (44%)
Labour: 14901 (31.4%)
Lib Dem: 9434 (19.9%)
BNP: 1375 (2.9%)
Green: 451 (1%)
UKIP: 406 (0.9%)
MAJORITY: 6000 (12.6%)

Sitting MP: Mark Pawsey (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

This was a Labour seat between 1997 and 2005 but boundary changes shifted it in favour of the Tories. It’s likely to remain that way unless Ed Miliband gets a majority of 30-40.

5. Stratford on Avon

2010 Result:
Conservative: 26052 (51.5%)
Labour: 4809 (9.5%)
Lib Dem: 14706 (29.1%)
BNP: 1097 (2.2%)
Green: 527 (1%)
UKIP: 1846 (3.7%)
English Dem: 473 (0.9%)
Independent: 1032 (2%)
MAJORITY: 11346 (22.4%)

Sitting MP: Nadhim Zahawi (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Safe seat.

6. Warwick & Leamington

2010 Result:
Conservative: 20876 (42.6%)
Labour: 17363 (35.4%)
Lib Dem: 8977 (18.3%)
Green: 693 (1.4%)
UKIP: 926 (1.9%)
Independent: 197 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 3513 (7.2%)

Sitting MP: Chris White (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

The Ashcroft constituency poll points to a Tory hold. Looking at other factors like local election results, I’d find that difficult to argue with.

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE

OUT NOW! The Politicos Guide to the General Election (by Iain Dale, Greg Callus, Robert Waller & Daniel Hamilton) £15.99 from Politicos.co.uk or £16.58 from Amazon. Also available as an eBook from Politicos.co.uk at £9.99 and Amazon at £10.19

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General Election Predictions

General Election Predictions 44: Shropshire

10 Jan 2015 at 14:00

This is the forty-fourth in a series of blogposts (scroll to the bottom of the article for the others) which will seek to predict the outcome of every seat in the run-up to the next general election. The notion of a universal swing in May 2015 can be totally discounted. Each seat has to be treated on its merits. Feel free to add your comments and tell me where you think I have got things wrong. I will return to update each county analysis when and if I get new information.

Shropshire

Seats: 5
Current Political Makeup: Con 4, Lab 1
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 4, Lab 1

1. Ludlow

2010 Result:
Conservative: 25720 (52.8%)
Labour: 3272 (6.7%)
Lib Dem: 15971 (32.8%)
BNP: 1016 (2.1%)
Green: 447 (0.9%)
UKIP: 2127 (4.4%)
Others: 179 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 9749 (20%)

Sitting MP: Philip Dunne (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Safe seat.

2. North Shropshire

2010 Result:
Conservative: 26692 (51.5%)
Labour: 9406 (18.1%)
Lib Dem: 10864 (20.9%)
BNP: 1667 (3.2%)
Green: 808 (1.6%)
UKIP: 2432 (4.7%)
MAJORITY: 15828 (30.5%)

Sitting MP: Owen Paterson (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Safe seat.

3. Shrewsbury & Atcham

2010 Result:
Conservative: 23313 (43.9%)
Labour: 10915 (20.6%)
Lib Dem: 15369 (29%)
BNP: 1168 (2.2%)
Green: 565 (1.1%)
UKIP: 1627 (3.1%)
Others: 88 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 7944 (15%)

Sitting MP: Daniel Kawczynski (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

This could be a four way marginal. UKIP’s deputy chairman, the impressive Suzanne Evans is standing here and UKIP think they could have a real impact on the result here. Labour are now in third place in a seat they held between 1997 and 2005.

4. Telford

2010 Result:
Conservative: 14996 (36.3%)
Labour: 15974 (38.7%)
Lib Dem: 6399 (15.5%)
BNP: 1513 (3.7%)
UKIP: 2428 (5.9%)
MAJORITY: 978 (2.4%)

Sitting MP: David Wright (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Very narrow hold for Labour last time. This is a seat where the Labour vote has plummeted from 58% to 39% since 1997. However, if the Tories didn’t win in 2010, can they really pull it off this time, especially given the interference of UKIP?

5. The Wrekin

2010 Result:
Conservative: 21922 (47.7%)
Labour: 12472 (27.1%)
Lib Dem: 8019 (17.4%)
BNP: 1505 (3.3%)
UKIP: 2050 (4.5%)
MAJORITY: 9450 (20.6%)

Sitting MP: Mark Pritchard (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Safe seat.

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE

OUT NOW! The Politicos Guide to the General Election (by Iain Dale, Greg Callus, Robert Waller & Daniel Hamilton) £15.99 from Politicos.co.uk or £16.58 from Amazon. Also available as an eBook from Politicos.co.uk at £9.99 and Amazon at £10.19

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General Election Predictions

General Election Predictions 43: Herefordshire & Worcestershire

10 Jan 2015 at 09:00

This is the forty-third in a series of blogposts (scroll to the bottom of the article for the others) which will seek to predict the outcome of every seat in the run-up to the next general election. The notion of a universal swing in May 2015 can be totally discounted. Each seat has to be treated on its merits. Feel free to add your comments and tell me where you think I have got things wrong. I will return to update each county analysis when and if I get new information.

Herefordshire & Worcestershire

Seats: 8
Current Political Makeup: Con 8
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 8

1. Hereford & South Herefordshire

2010 Result:
Conservative: 22366 (46.2%)
Labour: 3506 (7.2%)
Lib Dem: 19885 (41.1%)
BNP: 986 (2%)
UKIP: 1638 (3.4%)
MAJORITY: 2481 (5.1%)

Sitting MP: Jesse Norman (Con)
Prediction: Increased Conservative majority

Jesse Norman toppled the LibDems here in 2010 and it’s hard to see a scenario where he doesn’t win again and win big. Labour are nowhere here but may attract back some LibDem voters

2. North Herefordshire

2010 Result:
Conservative: 24631 (51.8%)
Labour: 3373 (7.1%)
Lib Dem: 14744 (31%)
Green: 1533 (3.2%)
UKIP: 2701 (5.7%)
Independent: 586 (1.2%)
MAJORITY: 9887 (20.8%)

Sitting MP: Bill Wiggin (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Safe seat.

3. Bromsgrove

2010 Result:
Conservative: 22558 (43.7%)
Labour: 11250 (21.8%)
Lib Dem: 10124 (19.6%)
BNP: 1923 (3.7%)
UKIP: 2950 (5.7%)
Independent: 336 (0.7%)
Others: 2489 (4.8%)
MAJORITY: 11308 (21.9%)

Sitting MP: Sajid Javid (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Safe seat.

4. Mid Worcestershire

2010 Result:
Conservative: 27770 (54.5%)
Labour: 7613 (14.9%)
Lib Dem: 11906 (23.4%)
Green: 593 (1.2%)
UKIP: 3049 (6%)
MAJORITY: 15864 (31.1%)

Sitting MP: Sir Peter Luff (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Safe seat. Sir Peter Luff is standing down.

5. Redditch

2010 Result:
Conservative: 19138 (43.5%)
Labour: 13317 (30.3%)
Lib Dem: 7750 (17.6%)
BNP: 1394 (3.2%)
Green: 393 (0.9%)
UKIP: 1497 (3.4%)
English Dem: 255 (0.6%)
Christian: 101 (0.2%)
Independent: 100 (0.2%)
Others: 73 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 5821 (13.2%)

Sitting MP: Karen Lumley (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Karen Lumley won this marginal seat from Jacqui Smith in 2010 by a very good margin. She can be confident of holding it in May.

6. West Worcestershire

2010 Result:
Conservative: 27213 (50.3%)
Labour: 3661 (6.8%)
Lib Dem: 20459 (37.8%)
Green: 641 (1.2%)
UKIP: 2119 (3.9%)
MAJORITY: 6754 (12.5%)

Sitting MP: Harriett Baldwin (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

The LibDems put in a lot of effort in this seat in 2010 but it wasn’t to be. Harriett Baldwin will win again.

7. Worcester

2010 Result:
Conservative: 19358 (39.5%)
Labour: 16376 (33.4%)
Lib Dem: 9525 (19.4%)
BNP: 1219 (2.5%)
Green: 735 (1.5%)
UKIP: 1360 (2.8%)
Independent: 129 (0.3%)
Others: 272 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 2982 (6.1%)

Sitting MP: Robin Walker (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

This will be very very close. It’s 48th on Labour’s target list and a seat they need to win to form a majority. Local intelligence seems to be split but the majority of those in the know think Robin Walker will just pull through.

8. Wyre Forest

2010 Result:
Conservative: 18793 (36.9%)
Labour: 7298 (14.3%)
Lib Dem: 6040 (11.9%)
BNP: 1120 (2.2%)
UKIP: 1498 (2.9%)
Health Concern: 16150 (31.7%)
MAJORITY: 2643 (5.2%)

Sitting MP: Mark Garnier (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

The former seat of Independent MP Richard Taylor, who is standing again for the National Health Action Party. Labour got 49% here in 1997 but have dropped to 14%. Richard Taylor’s vote declined by 6.9% last time. I doubt he will regain the seat.

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE

OUT NOW! The Politicos Guide to the General Election (by Iain Dale, Greg Callus, Robert Waller & Daniel Hamilton) £15.99 from Politicos.co.uk or £16.58 from Amazon. Also available as an eBook from Politicos.co.uk at £9.99 and Amazon at £10.19

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General Election Predictions

General Election Predictions 42: Oxfordshire

9 Jan 2015 at 20:31

This is the forty-second in a series of blogposts (scroll to the bottom of the article for the others) which will seek to predict the outcome of every seat in the run-up to the next general election. The notion of a universal swing in May 2015 can be totally discounted. Each seat has to be treated on its merits. Feel free to add your comments and tell me where you think I have got things wrong. I will return to update each county analysis when and if I get new information.

Oxfordshire

Seats: 6
Current Political Makeup: Con 5, Lab 1
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 5, Lab 1

1. Banbury

2010 Result:
Conservative: 29703 (52.8%)
Labour: 10773 (19.2%)
Lib Dem: 11476 (20.4%)
Green: 959 (1.7%)
UKIP: 2806 (5%)
Independent: 524 (0.9%)
MAJORITY: 18227 (32.4%)

Sitting MP: Sir Tony Baldry (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Safe seat. Sir Tony Baldry is standing down.

2. Henley

2010 Result:
Conservative: 30054 (56.2%)
Labour: 5835 (10.9%)
Lib Dem: 13466 (25.2%)
BNP: 1020 (1.9%)
Green: 1328 (2.5%)
UKIP: 1817 (3.4%)
MAJORITY: 16588 (31%)

Sitting MP: John Howell (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Safe seat.

3. Oxford East

2010 Result:
Conservative: 9727 (18.8%)
Labour: 21938 (42.5%)
Lib Dem: 17357 (33.6%)
Green: 1238 (2.4%)
UKIP: 1202 (2.3%)
Others: 189 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 4581 (8.9%)

Sitting MP: Andrew Smith (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Andrew Smith came within a whisker of losing this seat in 2005 but was safely home in 2010. He will be again.

4. Oxford West & Abingdon

2010 Result:
Conservative: 23906 (42.3%)
Labour: 5999 (10.6%)
Lib Dem: 23730 (42%)
Green: 1184 (2.1%)
UKIP: 1518 (2.7%)
Others: 143 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 176 (0.3%)

Sitting MP: Nicola Blackwood (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Slightly to her own surprise, I suspect, Nicola Blackwood beat Evan Harris in 2010 (thus gaining the thanks of many LibDems!) and I’d say is a dead cert to dramatically increase her majority in May. LibDems firmly believe they will retake the seat, but never seem to offer any firm reason as to why. The Labour vote has been squeezed to the pips and can’t reduce much further. The LibDems’only hope is for UKIP to take votes from Nicola Blackwood, but, well, how can I put it, is Oxford really the kind of place to vote UKIP?

5 Wantage

2010 Result:
Conservative: 29284 (52%)
Labour: 7855 (13.9%)
Lib Dem: 15737 (27.9%)
Green: 1044 (1.9%)
UKIP: 2421 (4.3%)
MAJORITY: 13547 (24%)

Sitting MP: Ed Vaizey (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Safe seat.

6. Witney

2010 Result:
Conservative: 33973 (58.8%)
Labour: 7511 (13%)
Lib Dem: 11233 (19.4%)
Green: 2385 (4.1%)
UKIP: 2001 (3.5%)
Independent: 166 (0.3%)
Others: 500 (0.9%)
MAJORITY: 22740 (39.4%)

Sitting MP: David Cameron (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Safe seat.

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE

OUT NOW! The Politicos Guide to the General Election (by Iain Dale, Greg Callus, Robert Waller & Daniel Hamilton) £15.99 from Politicos.co.uk or £16.58 from Amazon. Also available as an eBook from Politicos.co.uk at £9.99 and Amazon at £10.19

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Diary

ConHome Diary: Yes, The Greens Should Be Classed as a 'Major Party'

9 Jan 2015 at 14:33

So David Cameron and Boris Johnson are both attempting to lose weight. Join the club. Boris is a natural porker and although we often see footage of him running, I suspect he has a constant battle keeping the pounds off. David Cameron and I are have a similar body shape. We are both quite tall, but for tall people we have slightly excessively long backs and short legs. This means that any weight gain is distributed more widely across our bodies and we tend not to get large guts. However, in my case any weight gain is easily identifiable because it goes straight to my face. I was showing a friend a pic of me with Tony Blair taken at the 2001 Labour Party conference. I am barely recognisable due to my fat face. At that point I was touching 20 stone. I’m now a more comfortable 16 stone 8 lbs (on a good day). But I really want to knock off that half a stone. I’ve been toying with joining a gym, but doubt I would actually stick to going, so from Saturday I’m instituting a new running regime. I hate running, but something’s got to be done. I’ve already started to try to change my diet and eat less rubbish, and indeed generally to eat less. Isn’t that the long term secret to losing weight? More exercise and eat less? We’ll soon see.
*
Wednesday’s terror attack wasn’t just an attack on Charlie Hebdo and its staff. Or even just an attack on Paris or France. It was an attack on freedom of speech, freedom of expression, and indeed freedom itself. It wasn’t just a multiple murder. It was an execution, carried in the style of the bad guys on ’24’. I spoke to a friend in Paris and she was almost in a state of complete shock. One thing she said reminded me of my own reaction to the events on 7 July 2005. “Things will never be the same again,” she said, or almost sobbed. I can remember walking along Victoria Embankment towards Portcullis House on the morning of 8 July 2005, helicopters buzzing overhead, and thinking the very same thought. Things do, of course, return to something resembling normal. But I wonder if they will for people who make their living by satirising others. I hope so. Because the freedom to offend is an important one.
*

The news that the US government has made a decision to close RAF Mildenhall in Suffolk will come as a devastating blow to the local economy there. It’s an area I know well, having grown up about 15 miles south of there. It is a massive airbase with more than 16,000 people working there, many of them British. If it does indeed shut down completely it is difficult to imagine what the land could then be used for. I suppose one option might be to build a new garden city there. I almost hesitate to write that, as I’d hate to see it happen. But we do need to build a lot of new houses and they’ve got to go somewhere I suppose. One thing is for sure, local MP Matt Hancock is in for a busy time.
*
This week we learn from Ofcom that in their judgement the Green Party should not be classed as a “main party” at the election as they haven’t secured sufficient support in previous elections or current opinion polls. I hold no candle for the Greens but I do believe in fairness and if I were them I’d take this to Judicial Review. They are invariably outpolling the LibDems at the moment and indeed, they outpolled them in the European elections. They are going to field candidates in most seats – more than ever before – they have an MP, they have MEPs and they control a council. If the LibDems still count as a major party, then surely the Greens have a right to be too. Mind you for broadcasters it would be a nightmare as we’d have to give them equal time. The problem is that they have very few nationally known spokespeople. UKIP used to suffer from the same problem, and to a certain extent still do.


The Telegraph seems to be in the process of slowly committing suicide. This week we learn that they have dispensed with the column written by the excellent Isabel Hardman. She’s columnist who is clearly in the ascendant and you’d have thought they have so few female writers that Isabel would be at the very bottom of their ‘axe’ list. I just don’t understand what is happening to the paper which I used to regard as part of my staple morning routine. Either they’re intent on cutting costs because they’re putting it up for sale, or it is in a great deal of financial trouble. Whatever the truth, they’ve lost me to The Times, which seems to be going from strength to strength.
*
More bad news for the the Bow Group. The Spectator brings us the sad news that Sir John Major has quit as president. The reason given is that he just doesn’t have time any longer to fit them into his busy schedule. Likely story. However, the good news for the group is that they have recruited two new patrons – Roger Scruton and David Starkey. I wonder if either of them know what they have let themselves in for. Any mention of the Bow Group on this site usually results in a flurry of threatening emails and solicitors’ letters. Save your time, lads. Neither the editor or I give a toss about your puerile threats.
*

Only four month to go until election day. I ought to feel excited. I ought to feel like a kid in a sweet shop. But the political arguments this week have left me feeling bored and totally unexcited. The dodgy dossiers, the petty arguments about the NHS and the puerile insults are beginning to make me understand why some people no longer want to have any truck with party politics and don’t bother to vote. If a political geek like me is feeling like that, goodness alone knows how others are going to survive the next four months. I had thought turnout at this election would be well over 70%. I’m beginning to doubt that.

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General Election Predictions

General Election Predictions 41: Wales - South Glamorgan

9 Jan 2015 at 09:00

This is the forty-first in a series of blogposts (scroll to the bottom of the article for the others) which will seek to predict the outcome of every seat in the run-up to the next general election. The notion of a universal swing in May 2015 can be totally discounted. Each seat has to be treated on its merits. Feel free to add your comments and tell me where you think I have got things wrong. I will return to update each county analysis when and if I get new information.

South Glamorgan

Seats: 5
Current Political Makeup: Con 2, Lab 2, LibDem 1
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 1, Lab 4

1. Cardiff Central

2010 Result:
Conservative: 7799 (21.6%)
Labour: 10400 (28.8%)
Lib Dem: 14976 (41.4%)
Plaid Cymru: 1246 (3.4%)
Green: 575 (1.6%)
UKIP: 765 (2.1%)
TUSC: 162 (0.4%)
Independent: 86 (0.2%)
Others: 142 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 4576 (12.7%)

Sitting MP: Jenny Willott (LibDem)
Prediction: Labour gain

Most pundits seem convinced this is a surefire Labour gain. I’m going with the flow here, but I am not 100% sure. Willott could benefit from some Tory tactical voting to keep Labour out. In addition, although UKIP aren’t strong in Cardiff, they could take votes away from Labour as well as the Tories, just as they are sure to do in North Wales. Jenny Willott shouldn’t give up the day job quite yet, but she’s in for the fight of her life.

2. Cardiff North

2010 Result:
Conservative: 17860 (37.5%)
Labour: 17666 (37.1%)
Lib Dem: 8724 (18.3%)
Plaid Cymru: 1588 (3.3%)
Green: 362 (0.8%)
UKIP: 1130 (2.4%)
Christian: 300 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 194 (0.4%)

Sitting MP: Jonathan Evans (Con)
Prediction: Labour gain

I’m not sure any comment is necessary here. This has to be a surefire Labour gain. Just look at the figures.

3. Cardiff South & Penarth

2010 Result:
Conservative: 12553 (28.3%)
Labour: 17262 (38.9%)
Lib Dem: 9875 (22.3%)
Plaid Cymru: 1851 (4.2%)
Green: 554 (1.2%)
UKIP: 1145 (2.6%)
Christian: 285 (0.6%)
Independent: 648 (1.5%)
Others: 196 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 4709 (10.6%)

Sitting MP: Stephen Doughty (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

No change here.

4. Cardiff West

2010 Result:
Conservative: 12143 (29.6%)
Labour: 16894 (41.2%)
Lib Dem: 7186 (17.5%)
Plaid Cymru: 2868 (7%)
Green: 750 (1.8%)
UKIP: 1117 (2.7%)
MAJORITY: 4751 (11.6%)

Sitting MP: Kevin Brennan (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Kevin Brennan won’t have anything to worry about.

5. Vale of Glamorgan

2010 Result:
Conservative: 20341 (41.8%)
Labour: 16034 (32.9%)
Lib Dem: 7403 (15.2%)
Plaid Cymru: 2667 (5.5%)
Green: 457 (0.9%)
UKIP: 1529 (3.1%)
Christian: 236 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 4307 (8.8%)

Sitting MP: Alun Cairns (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

All the pundits tip this seat to remain Tory and I’m not going to buck the trend. Local Tories think UKIP will depress the Labour vote more than their own. We’ll soon see how right they are.

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE

OUT NOW! The Politicos Guide to the General Election (by Iain Dale, Greg Callus, Robert Waller & Daniel Hamilton) £15.99 from Politicos.co.uk or £16.58 from Amazon. Also available as an eBook from Politicos.co.uk at £9.99 and Amazon at £10.19

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General Election Predictions

General Election Predictions 40: Wales - West Glamorgan

8 Jan 2015 at 21:31

This is the fortieth in a series of blogposts (scroll to the bottom of the article for the others) which will seek to predict the outcome of every seat in the run-up to the next general election. The notion of a universal swing in May 2015 can be totally discounted. Each seat has to be treated on its merits. Feel free to add your comments and tell me where you think I have got things wrong. I will return to update each county analysis when and if I get new information.

West Glamorgan

Seats: 5
Current Political Makeup: Lab 5
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Lab 5

1. Aberavon

2010 Result:
Conservative: 4411 (14.2%)
Labour: 16073 (51.9%)
Lib Dem: 5034 (16.3%)
Plaid Cymru: 2198 (7.1%)
BNP: 1276 (4.1%)
UKIP: 489 (1.6%)
Independent: 919 (3%)
Others: 558 (1.8%)
MAJORITY: 11039 (35.7%)

Sitting MP: Hywel Francis (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

2. Gower

2010 Result:
Conservative: 13333 (32%)
Labour: 16016 (38.4%)
Lib Dem: 7947 (19.1%)
Plaid Cymru: 2760 (6.6%)
BNP: 963 (2.3%)
UKIP: 652 (1.6%)
MAJORITY: 2683 (6.4%)

Sitting MP: Martin Caton (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

The Tories have always eyed this seat but haven’t managed to win it. Their only hope this time is that UKIp takes votes away from Labour and they’re not replaced by former LibDem voters. I think they need to pray rather than hope.

3. Neath

2010 Result:
Conservative: 4847 (13.1%)
Labour: 17172 (46.3%)
Lib Dem: 5535 (14.9%)
Plaid Cymru: 7397 (19.9%)
BNP: 1342 (3.6%)
UKIP: 829 (2.2%)
MAJORITY: 9775 (26.3%)

Sitting MP: Peter Hain (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat even though Peter Hain is retiring.

4. Swansea East

2010 Result:
Conservative: 4823 (14.8%)
Labour: 16819 (51.5%)
Lib Dem: 5981 (18.3%)
Plaid Cymru: 2181 (6.7%)
BNP: 1715 (5.2%)
Green: 318 (1%)
UKIP: 839 (2.6%)
MAJORITY: 10838 (33.2%)

Sitting MP: Sian James (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat. Sian James is standing down.

5. Swansea West

2010 Result:
Conservative: 7407 (20.8%)
Labour: 12335 (34.7%)
Lib Dem: 11831 (33.2%)
Plaid Cymru: 1437 (4%)
BNP: 910 (2.6%)
Green: 404 (1.1%)
UKIP: 716 (2%)
TUSC: 179 (0.5%)
Independent: 374 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 504 (1.4%

Sitting MP: Geraint Davies (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

The LibDems came within a whisker of winning this seat last time and this is one their main hopes in 2015. Tactical voting by Conservatives may aid and abett them, and they will hope that UKIP leech off some traditional Labour support, but there are too many ‘ifs’ here to be confident of predicting an upset.

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE

OUT NOW! The Politicos Guide to the General Election (by Iain Dale, Greg Callus, Robert Waller & Daniel Hamilton) £15.99 from Politicos.co.uk or £16.58 from Amazon. Also available as an eBook from Politicos.co.uk at £9.99 and Amazon at £10.19

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General Election Predictions

General Election Predictions 39: Wales - Mid Glamorgan

8 Jan 2015 at 09:00

This is the thirty-ninth in a series of blogposts (scroll to the bottom of the article for the others) which will seek to predict the outcome of every seat in the run-up to the next general election. The notion of a universal swing in May 2015 can be totally discounted. Each seat has to be treated on its merits. Feel free to add your comments and tell me where you think I have got things wrong. I will return to update each county analysis when and if I get new information.

Mid Glamorgan

Seats: 5
Current Political Makeup: Lab 5
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Lab 5

1. Bridgend

2010 Result:
Conservative: 11668 (30.4%)
Labour: 13931 (36.3%)
Lib Dem: 8658 (22.6%)
Plaid Cymru: 2269 (5.9%)
BNP: 1020 (2.7%)
UKIP: 801 (2.1%)
MAJORITY: 2263 (5.9%)

Sitting MP: Madeleine Moon (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

The only way Labour will lose here is if the LibDem vote goes to the Tories rather than Labour. Unlikely. UKIP didn’t poll much here last time and it will be interesting to see if they influence the outcome.

2. Cynon Valley

2010 Result:
Conservative: 3010 (10.1%)
Labour: 15681 (52.5%)
Lib Dem: 4120 (13.8%)
Plaid Cymru: 6064 (20.3%)
UKIP: 1001 (3.4%)
MAJORITY: 9617 (32.2%)

Sitting MP: Ann Clwyd (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat

4. Ogmore

2010 Result:
Conservative: 5398 (15.6%)
Labour: 18644 (53.8%)
Lib Dem: 5260 (15.2%)
Plaid Cymru: 3326 (9.6%)
BNP: 1242 (3.6%)
UKIP: 780 (2.3%)
MAJORITY: 13246 (38.2%)

Sitting MP: Huw Irranca-Davies (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

5. Pontypridd

2010 Result:
Conservative: 5932 (16.2%)
Labour: 14220 (38.8%)
Lib Dem: 11435 (31.2%)
Plaid Cymru: 2673 (7.3%)
Green: 361 (1%)
UKIP: 1229 (3.4%)
Christian: 365 (1%)
Others: 456 (1.2%)
MAJORITY: 2785 (7.6%)

Sitting MP: Owen Smith (Lab)
Prediction: Increased Labour majority

A big LibDem vote for Labour to eat into. Owen Smith will also benefit from his media exposure as Labour’s Shadow Welsh Secretary.

6. Rhondda

2010 Result:
Conservative: 1993 (6.4%)
Labour: 17183 (55.3%)
Lib Dem: 3309 (10.6%)
Plaid Cymru: 5630 (18.1%)
UKIP: 358 (1.2%)
Independent: 2599 (8.4%)
MAJORITY: 11553 (37.2%)

Sitting MP: Chris Bryant (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat. Having said that, according to Goodwin & Ford this is UKIP’s number 1 Labour target seat. They might reduce Chris Bryant’s majority, but they won’t pick him off.

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE

OUT NOW! The Politicos Guide to the General Election (by Iain Dale, Greg Callus, Robert Waller & Daniel Hamilton) £15.99 from Politicos.co.uk or £16.58 from Amazon. Also available as an eBook from Politicos.co.uk at £9.99 and Amazon at £10.19

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General Election Predictions

General Election Predictions 38: Wales - Dyfed

7 Jan 2015 at 21:32

This is the thirty-eighth in a series of blogposts (scroll to the bottom of the article for the others) which will seek to predict the outcome of every seat in the run-up to the next general election. The notion of a universal swing in May 2015 can be totally discounted. Each seat has to be treated on its merits. Feel free to add your comments and tell me where you think I have got things wrong. I will return to update each county analysis when and if I get new information.

Dyfed

Seats: 5
Current Political Makeup: Con 2, Lab 1, LibDem 1, PC 1
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 2, Lab 1, LibDem 1, PC 1

1. Carmarthen East & Dinefwr

2010 Result:
Conservative: 8506 (22.4%)
Labour: 10065 (26.5%)
Lib Dem: 4609 (12.1%)
Plaid Cymru: 13546 (35.6%)
UKIP: 1285 (3.4%)
MAJORITY: 3481 (9.2%)

Sitting MP: Jonathan Edwards (PC)
Prediction: Plaid Cymru hold

A Labour win here is possible but unlikely.

2. Carmarthen West & South Pembrokeshire

2010 Result:
Conservative: 16649 (41.1%)
Labour: 13226 (32.7%)
Lib Dem: 4890 (12.1%)
Plaid Cymru: 4232 (10.4%)
UKIP: 1146 (2.8%)
Independent: 364 (0.9%)
MAJORITY: 3423 (8.5%)

Sitting MP: Simon Hart (Con)
Prediction: Narrow Conservative hold

A difficult one to call but I’m going for a narrow Tory hold based on the fact that the Labour vote has declined here at every election since 1997 and the Tory vote has gone in the opposite direction. The Ashcroft marginal seats poll shows the Conservatives outperforming the rest of Wales here too..

3. Ceredigion

2010 Result:
Conservative: 4421 (11.6%)
Labour: 2210 (5.8%)
Lib Dem: 19139 (50%)
Plaid Cymru: 10815 (28.3%)
Green: 696 (1.8%)
UKIP: 977 (2.6%)
MAJORITY: 8324 (21.8%)

Sittting MP: Mark Williams (LibDem)
Prediction: LibDem hold

Plaid Cymru seem to be very confident they can take back this seat, which they unexpectedly lost in 2005. The LibDems will be badly affected by the loss of the student vote in Aberystwyth and Lampeter, but it’s difficult to work out how badly. I still think it’s a big call to predict anything other than a narrowish LibDem hold here, but I may well be proved wrong.

4. Llanelli

2010 Result:
Conservative: 5381 (14.4%)
Labour: 15916 (42.5%)
Lib Dem: 3902 (10.4%)
Plaid Cymru: 11215 (29.9%)
UKIP: 1047 (2.8%)
MAJORITY: 4701 (12.5%)

Sitting MP: Nia Griffith (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Plaid are in a good second place here but there’s no reason to think they could take enough votes from the other parties to win here.

5. Preseli Pembrokeshire

2010 Result:
Conservative: 16944 (42.8%)
Labour: 12339 (31.2%)
Lib Dem: 5759 (14.5%)
Plaid Cymru: 3654 (9.2%)
UKIP: 906 (2.3%)
MAJORITY: 4605 (11.6%)

Sitting MP: Stephen Crabb (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Crabb has built up a decent majority here and Labour will find him difficult to shift. However, they will hark back to 1992 when Nick Ainger overturned a majority of more than 5,000 to oust Tory minister Nicholas Bennett. But this will be Crabb’s fourth election and I suspect he will have built up quite a large personal vote. His cabinet status is also a boost.

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE

OUT NOW! The Politicos Guide to the General Election (by Iain Dale, Greg Callus, Robert Waller & Daniel Hamilton) £15.99 from Politicos.co.uk or £16.58 from Amazon. Also available as an eBook from Politicos.co.uk at £9.99 and Amazon at £10.19

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