General Election Predictions

General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 30. West Sussex

30 Apr 2017 at 14:34

WEST SUSSEX

Seats: 8
Current Political Makeup: Con 8
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 8

1. Arundel & South Downs

2010 Result:
Conservative: 32333 (57.8%)
Labour: 4835 (8.6%)
Lib Dem: 15642 (27.9%)
UKIP: 3172 (5.7%)
MAJORITY: 16691 (29.8%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Nick Herbert 34,331 60.8 +3.0
UKIP Peter Grace 8,154 14.4 +8.8
Labour Christopher Wellbelove 6,324 11.2 +2.6
Liberal Democrat Shweta Kapadia 4,062 7.2 −20.7
Green Isabel Thurston 3,606 6.4 +6.4
Majority 26,177 46.3 +16.4
Turnout 56,477 73.1 +0.9

Leave Vote: 49.7%

Sitting MP: Nick Herbert (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

2. Bognor Regis & Littlehampton

2010 Result:
Conservative: 24087 (51.4%)
Labour: 6580 (14%)
Lib Dem: 11024 (23.5%)
BNP: 1890 (4%)
UKIP: 3036 (6.5%)
Independent: 235 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 13063 (27.9%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Nick Gibb 24,185 51.3 −0.1
UKIP Graham Jones 10,241 21.7 +15.3
Labour Alan Butcher 6,508 13.8 −0.2
Liberal Democrat Francis Oppler 4,240 9.0 −14.5
Green Simon McDougall 1,942 4.1 +4.1
Majority 13,944 29.6 +1.7
Turnout 47,116 64.5 -1.7

Leave Vote: 64.8%

Sitting MP: Nick Gibb (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

3. Chichester

2010 Result:
Conservative: 31427 (55.3%)
Labour: 5937 (10.5%)
Lib Dem: 15550 (27.4%)
UKIP: 3873 (6.8%)
MAJORITY: 15877 (28%)

2015 result:
Conservative Andrew Tyrie 32,953 57.7 +2.3
UKIP Andrew Moncreiff11 8,540 14.9 +8.1
Labour Mark Farwell12 6,933 12.1 +1.7
Liberal Democrat Andrew Smith13 4,865 8.5 −18.9
Green Jasper Richmond14 3,742 6.5 N/A
Patria Andrew Emerson 106 0.2 N/A
Majority 24,413 42.7 +14.7
Turnout 57,139 68.4 -1.0

Leave Vote: 50.73%

Sitting MP: Andrew Tyrie (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

4. Crawley

2010 Result:
Conservative: 21264 (44.8%)
Labour: 15336 (32.3%)
Lib Dem: 6844 (14.4%)
BNP: 1672 (3.5%)
Green: 598 (1.3%)
UKIP: 1382 (2.9%)
Independent: 143 (0.3%)
Others: 265 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 5928 (12.5%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Henry Smith 6 22,829 47.0 +2.3
Labour Chris Oxlade 6 16,303 33.6 +1.3
UKIP Christopher Brown7 6,979 14.4 +11.5
Liberal Democrat Sarah Osborne8 1,339 2.8 -11.6
Green Guy Hudson9 1,100 2.3 +1.0
Majority 6,526 13.4 +2.3
Turnout 48,550 65.7 +0.4

Leave Vote: 58.4%

Sitting MP: Henry Smith (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Widely tipped to lose last time, instead Henry Smith increased his majority. He’s likely to do so again.

5. East Worthing & Shoreham

Conservative: 23458 (48.5%)
Labour: 8087 (16.7%)
Lib Dem: 12353 (25.5%)
Green: 1126 (2.3%)
UKIP: 2984 (6.2%)
English Dem: 389 (0.8%)
MAJORITY: 11105 (22.9%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Tim Loughton 24,686 49.5 +1.0
Labour Tim Macpherson 9,737 19.5 +2.8
UKIP Mike J. Glennon 8,267 16.6 +10.4
Liberal Democrat Bob Smytherman 3,360 6.7 −18.8
Green James Doyle 2,605 5.2 +2.9
National Health Action Carl Walker 1,243 2.5 N/A
Majority 14,949 30.0 +7.1
Turnout 49,898 67.2 +1.8

Leave Vote: 53.7%

Sitting MP: Tim Loughton (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

6. Horsham

2010 Result:
Conservative: 29447 (52.7%)
Labour: 4189 (7.5%)
Lib Dem: 17987 (32.2%)
Green: 570 (1%)
UKIP: 2839 (5.1%)
Christian: 469 (0.8%)
Independent: 87 (0.2%)
Others: 253 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 11460 (20.5%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Jeremy Quin11 32,627 57.3 +4.6
UKIP Roger Arthur1213 7,969 14.0 +8.9
Liberal Democrat Morwen Millson 6,647 11.7 −20.5
Labour Martyn Davis14 6,499 11.4 +3.9
Green Darrin Green15 2,198 3.9 +2.8
Something New James Smith16 375 0.7 +0.7
Peace Jim Duggan17 307 0.5 +0.1
Independent Jim Rae18 303 0.5 +0.5
Majority 24,658 43.3
Turnout 56,925 72.8

Leave Vote: 49.5%

Sitting MP: Jeremy Quin (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

7. Mid Sussex

2010 Result:
Conservative: 29447 (52.7%)
Labour: 4189 (7.5%)
Lib Dem: 17987 (32.2%)
Green: 570 (1%)
UKIP: 2839 (5.1%)
Christian: 469 (0.8%)
Independent: 87 (0.2%)
Others: 253 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 11460 (20.5%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Nicholas Soames 32,268 56.1 +5.4
Labour Greg Mountain 7,982 13.9 +7.3
UKIP Toby Brothers 6,898 12.0 +9.5
Liberal Democrat Daisy Cooper7 6,604 11.5 −26.0
Green Miranda Diboll8 2,453 4.3 +3.1
Independent Beki Adam9 958 1.7 N/A
Monster Raving Loony Baron Von Thunderclap 329 0.6 +0.1
Majority 24,286 42.2
Turnout 57,492 72.3

Leave Vote: 46.4%

Sitting MP: Sir Nicholas Soames (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

8. Worthing West

2010 Result:
Conservative: 25416 (51.7%)
Labour: 5800 (11.8%)
Lib Dem: 13687 (27.9%)
Green: 996 (2%)
UKIP: 2924 (6%)
Christian: 300 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 11729 (23.9%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Peter Bottomley 26,124 51.5 −0.3
UKIP Timothy Cross 9,269 18.3 +12.3
Labour Jim Deen 7,955 15.7 +3.9
Liberal Democrat Hazel Thorpe 4,477 8.8 −19.0
Green David Aherne 2,938 5.8 +3.8
Majority 16,855 33.2
Turnout 50,763 67.1 +2.4

Leave Vote: 56.0%

Sitting MP: Sir Peter Bottomley (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

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General Election Predictions

General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 29. East Sussex

30 Apr 2017 at 10:52

EAST SUSSEX

Seats: 8
Current Political Makeup: Con 6, Lab 1, Green 1
Predicted Political Makeup after June 8: Con 5, Lab 1, LibDem 1, Green 1

1. Bexhill & Battle

2010 Result:
Conservative: 28147 (51.6%)
Labour: 6524 (12%)
Lib Dem: 15267 (28%)
BNP: 1950 (3.6%)
Others: 2699 (4.9%)
MAJORITY: 12880 (23.6%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Huw Merriman 7 30,245 54.8 +3.2
UKIP Geoffrey Bastin 8 10,170 18.4 N/A
Labour Michelle Thew 9 7,797 14.1 +2.1
Liberal Democrat Rachel Sadler 10 4,199 7.6 −20.4
Green Jonathan Kent 2,807 5.1 N/A
Majority 20,075 36.4 +12.8
Turnout 55,218 70.1 +1.1

Leave Vote: 57.2%

Sitting MP: Huw Merriman (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

2. Brighton Kemptown

2010 Result:
Conservative: 16217 (38%)
Labour: 14889 (34.9%)
Lib Dem: 7691 (18%)
Green: 2330 (5.5%)
UKIP: 1384 (3.2%)
TUSC: 194 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 1328 (3.1%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Simon Kirby 8 18,428 40.7 +2.7
Labour Nancy Platts8 17,738 39.2 +4.3
UKIP Ian Buchanan9 4,446 9.8 +6.6
Green Davy Jones 8 3,187 7.0 +1.6
Liberal Democrat Paul Chandler10 1,365 3.0 −15.0
Socialist (GB) Jacqueline Shodeke 11 73 0.2 N/A
Independent Matthew Taylor 12 69 0.2 N/A
Majority 690 1.5 −1.6
Turnout 45,306 66.8 +2.1

Leave Vote: 43.6%

Sitting MP: Simon Kirby (Con)
Prediction: Labour gain

This is one of the seats that I can see Labour gaining, mainly due to the demographics. The UKIP vote is not insignificant here but it will be difficult for Kirby to gain support from UKIP voters bearing in mind he supported the Remain campaign. The Greens have this week announced they will not stand here which could make this a surefire Labour gain, unless their vote goes almost entirely to the LibDems. If the LibDems recover their vote share here from 2010, again it could play into Simon Kirby’s hands.

3. Brighton Pavilion

2010 Result:
Conservative: 12275 (23.7%)
Labour: 14986 (28.9%)
Lib Dem: 7159 (13.8%)
Green: 16238 (31.3%)
UKIP: 948 (1.8%)
Others: 228 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 1252 (2.4%)

2015 Result:
Green Caroline Lucas 22,871 41.8 +10.5
Labour Purna Sen 14,904 27.3 −1.7
Conservative Clarence Mitchell 12,448 22.8 −0.9
UKIP Nigel Carter 2,724 5.0 +3.2
Liberal Democrat Chris Bowers 1,525 2.8 −11.0
Independent Nick Yeomans 116 0.2 N/A
Socialist (GB) Howard Pilott 88 0.2 N/A
Majority 7,967 14.6 +12.2
Turnout 54,676 71.4 +1.4

Leave Vote: 25.9%

Sitting MP: Caroline Lucas (Green)
Prediction: Green hold

I can see no prospect of anything other than a Green hold here.

4. Eastbourne

2010 Result:
Conservative: 21223 (40.7%)
Labour: 2497 (4.8%)
Lib Dem: 24658 (47.3%)
BNP: 939 (1.8%)
UKIP: 1305 (2.5%)
Independent: 1327 (2.5%)
Others: 175 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 3435 (6.6%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Caroline Ansell 20,934 39.6 -1.1
Liberal Democrat Stephen Lloyd 20,201 38.2 -9.1
UKIP Nigel Jones 6,139 11.6 +9.1
Labour Jake Lambert11 4,143 7.8 +3.0
Green Andrew Durling12 1,351 2.6 +2.6
Independent Paul Howard 139 0.3 +0.3
Majority 733 1.4
Turnout 52,907 67.6

Leave Vote: 57.5%

Sitting MP: Caroline Ansell (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Stephen Lloyd is restanding again despite saying he wouldn’t. But he’s a strong opponent for the Conservatives and should not be underestimated. However, the Leave vote in this constituency was substantial and it is likely Caroline Ansell will eat into the UKIP vote. This is the kind of seat where Theresa May herself may determine the result.

5. Hastings & Rye

2010 Result:
Conservative: 20468 (41.1%)
Labour: 18475 (37.1%)
Lib Dem: 7825 (15.7%)
BNP: 1310 (2.6%)
UKIP: 1397 (2.8%)
English Dem: 339 (0.7%)
MAJORITY: 1993 (4%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Amber Rudd6 22,686 44.5 +3.4
Labour Sarah Owen7 17,890 35.1 −2.0
UKIP Andrew Michael[disambiguation needed] 6,786 13.3 +10.5
Green Jake Bowers 1,951 3.8 +3.8
Liberal Democrat Nick Perry8 1,614 3.2 −12.5
Majority 4,796 9.4 +5.4
Turnout 50,927 68.0 +4.1

Leave Vote: 55.9%

Sitting MP: Amber Rudd (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Amber Rudd was heavily tipped to lose last time but she survived with a reasonable majority. She might have vocally supported Remain but her prominence as Home Secretary may do her some favours. I expect an increased majority.

6. Hove

2010 Result:
Conservative: 18294 (36.7%)
Labour: 16426 (33%)
Lib Dem: 11240 (22.6%)
Green: 2568 (5.2%)
UKIP: 1206 (2.4%)
Independent: 85 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 1868 (3.7%)

2015 Result:
Labour Peter Kyle11 22,082 42.3 +9.3
Conservative Graham Cox12 20,846 39.9 +3.2
Green Christopher Hawtree13 3,569 6.8 +1.7
UKIP Kevin Smith1415 3,265 6.3 +3.8
Liberal Democrat Peter Lambell16 1,861 3.6 −19.0
Independent Jenny Barnard-Langston 322 0.6 N/A
TUSC Dave Hill 144 0.3 N/A
Monster Raving Loony Dame Jon Dixon17 125 0.2 N/A
Majority 1,236 2.4
Turnout 52,214 71.0

Sitting MP: Peter Kyle (Lab)
Prediction: Conservative gain

This is a really interesting seat. Even though it has a narrow majority, it’s possible it could be held by Labour, even if there is a wider Tory landslide, especially if the Greens stand aside and concentrate their efforts in the Pavilion seat. However, the Momentum controlled Labour Party might not be too keen to camaign for the Blairite Peter Kyle. There’s no big UKIP vote for the Conservative to rely on, either. But logic points to a Tory gain.

7. Lewes

2010 Result:
Conservative: 18401 (36.7%)
Labour: 2508 (5%)
Lib Dem: 26048 (52%)
BNP: 594 (1.2%)
Green: 729 (1.5%)
UKIP: 1728 (3.4%)
Independent: 80 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 7647 (15.3%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Maria Caulfield 19,206 38.0 +1.3
Liberal Democrat Norman Baker 18,123 35.9 -16.1
UKIP Ray Finch 5,427 10.7 +7.3
Labour Lloyd Russell-Moyle 5,000 9.9 +4.9
Green Alfie Stirling 2,784 5.5 +4.1
Majority 1,083 2.1
Turnout 50,540 72.7 -0.2

Leave Vote: 47.1%

Sitting MP: Maria Caulfield (Con)
Prediction: LibDem gain

If Norman Baker were restanding here I’d say the odds of a LibDem gain here were slightly higher than they appear now. Will the Greens give the LibDems a free run? If they do, and the UKIP vote stays strong, I’d say the LibDems will edge it. A lot of caveats there, but this is a tricky one to call.

8. Wealden

2010 Result:
Conservative: 31090 (56.6%)
Labour: 5266 (9.6%)
Lib Dem: 13911 (25.3%)
Green: 1383 (2.5%)
UKIP: 3319 (6%)
MAJORITY: 17179 (31.3%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Nusrat Ghani 32,508 57.0 +0.5
UKIP Peter Griffiths5 9,541 16.7 +10.7
Labour Solomon Curtis6 6,165 10.8 +1.2
Liberal Democrat Giles Goodall 5,180 9.1 −16.5
Green Mark Smith 7 3,623 6.4 +3.8
Majority 22,967 40.3
Turnout 57,017 71.0

Leave Vote: 52.8%

Sitting MP: Nus Ghani (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

To see the complete list of predictions click HERE

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General Election Predictions

General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 28. Cambridgeshire

30 Apr 2017 at 10:15

CAMBRIDGESHIRE

Seats: 7
Current Political Makeup: Con 6, Lab 1
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 6, LibDem 1

1. Cambridge

2010 Result:
Conservative: 12829 (25.6%)
Labour: 12174 (24.3%)
Lib Dem: 19621 (39.1%)
Green: 3804 (7.6%)
UKIP: 1195 (2.4%)
Independent: 145 (0.3%)
Others: 362 (0.7%)
MAJORITY: 6792 (13.5%)

2015 Result:
Labour Daniel Zeichner 18,646 36.0 +11.7
Liberal Democrat Julian Huppert 18,047 34.9 −4.3
Conservative Chamali Fernando 8,117 15.7 −9.9
Green Rupert Read 4,109 7.9 +0.3
UKIP Patrick O’Flynn 2,668 5.2 +2.8
Rebooting Democracy Keith Garrett 187 0.4 N/A
Majority 599 1.2
Turnout 51,774 62.1 −2.9

Leave Vote: 26.3%

Sitting MP: Daniel Zeichner (Lab)
Prediction: LibDem gain

I thought Julian Huppert would hold on last time but I was wrong. He’s standing again and in the biggest Remain constituency in the country, if they don’t take this seat back they can’t hope to win elsewhere. I’d say this was the most nailed on LibDem gain of them all.

2. Huntingdon

2010 Result:
Conservative: 26516 (48.9%)
Labour: 5982 (11%)
Lib Dem: 15697 (28.9%)
Green: 652 (1.2%)
UKIP: 3258 (6%)
Independent: 1432 (2.6%)
Others: 729 (1.3%)
MAJORITY: 10819 (19.9%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Jonathan Djanogly 29,652 53.0 +4.2
Labour Nik Johnson9 10,248 18.3 +7.3
UKIP Paul Bullen9 9,473 16.9 +10.9
Liberal Democrat Rod Cantrill10 4,375 7.8 −21.1
Green Thomas MacLennan11 2,178 3.9 +2.7
Majority 19,404 34.7
Turnout 67.9

Sitting MP: Jonathan Djanogly
Prediction: Conservative hold

3. North East Cambridgeshire

2010 Result:
Conservative: 26862 (51.6%)
Labour: 9274 (17.8%)
Lib Dem: 10437 (20%)
BNP: 1747 (3.4%)
UKIP: 2791 (5.4%)
English Dem: 387 (0.7%)
Independent: 566 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 16425 (31.5%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Stephen Barclay 28,524 55.1 +3.5
UKIP Andrew Charalambous 11,650 22.5 +17.1
Labour Ken Rustidge 7,476 14.4 −3.4
Liberal Democrat Lucy Nethsingha 2,314 4.5 −15.6
Green Helen Scott-Daniels 1,816 3.5 N/A
Majority 16,874 32.6
Turnout 51,780 62.4

Leave Vote: 69.4%

Sitting MP: Stephen Barclay (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

4. North West Cambridgeshire

2010 Result:
Conservative: 29425 (50.5%)
Labour: 9877 (16.9%)
Lib Dem: 12748 (21.9%)
UKIP: 4826 (8.3%)
English Dem: 1407 (2.4%)
MAJORITY: 16677 (28.6%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Shailesh Vara 32,070 52.5 +2.0
UKIP Peter Reeve 5 12,275 20.1 +11.8
Labour Nick Thulbourn 5 10,927 17.9 +0.9
Liberal Democrat Nicholas Sandford6 3,479 5.7 −16.2
Green Nicola Day7 2,159 3.5 +3.5
Christian Peoples Fay Belham 190 0.3 +0.3
Majority 19,795 32.4 +3.8
Turnout 61,100 66.6 +1.0

Leave Vote: 57.0%

Sitting MP: Shailesh Vara (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

5. Peterborough

2010 Result:
Conservative: 18133 (40.4%)
Labour: 13272 (29.5%)
Lib Dem: 8816 (19.6%)
Green: 523 (1.2%)
UKIP: 3007 (6.7%)
English Dem: 770 (1.7%)
Independent: 406 (0.9%)
MAJORITY: 4861 (10.8%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Stewart Jackson 18,684 39.7 -0.7
Labour Lisa Forbes 16,759 35.6 +6.1
UKIP Mary Herdman 7,485 15.9 +9.2
Liberal Democrat Darren Fower 1,774 3.8 -15.9
Green Darren Bisby-Boyd 1,218 2.6 +1.4
Liberal Chris Ash 639 1.4 N/A
Independent John Fox 516 1.1 N/A
Majority 1,925 4.1 -6.7
Turnout 47,075 64.9 +1.0

Leave Vote:62.7%

Sitting MP: Stewart Jackson (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

A very narrow majority and Labour will have ambitions to take back this seat. UKIP are standing down which may help Stewart Jackson’s cause.

6. South Cambridgeshire

2010 Result:
Conservative: 27995 (47.4%)
Labour: 6024 (10.2%)
Lib Dem: 20157 (34.1%)
Green: 1039 (1.8%)
UKIP: 1873 (3.2%)
Independent: 1968 (3.3%)
MAJORITY: 7838 (13.3%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Heidi Allen 31,454 51.1 +3.7
Labour Dan Greef 10,860 17.6 +7.4
Liberal Democrat Sebastian Kindersley 9,368 15.2 −18.9
UKIP Marion Mason 6,010 9.8 +6.6
Green Simon Saggers 3,848 6.3 +4.5
Majority 20,594 33.5 +20.2
Turnout 61,540 73.1 −1.7

Leave Vote: 38.5%

Sitting MP: Heidi Allen (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

7. South East Cambridgeshire

2010 Result:
Conservative: 27629 (48%)
Labour: 4380 (7.6%)
Lib Dem: 21683 (37.6%)
Green: 766 (1.3%)
UKIP: 2138 (3.7%)
Independent: 517 (0.9%)
Others: 489 (0.8%)
MAJORITY: 5946 (10.3%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Lucy Frazer 8[n 3] 28,845 48.5 +0.5
Liberal Democrat Jonathan Chatfield 10 12,008 20.2 −17.5
Labour Huw Jones 11 9,013 15.1 +7.5
UKIP Deborah Rennie 12 6,593 11.1 +7.4
Green Clive Semmens 13 3,047 5.1 +3.8
Majority 16,837 28.3
Turnout 59,506 70.4 +1.1

Leave Vote: 45.3%

Sitting MP: Lucy Frazer (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

To see the complete list of predictions click HERE

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General Election Predictions

General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 27. Lancashire

29 Apr 2017 at 20:59

LANCASHIRE

Seats: 16
Current Political Makeup: Con 8, Lab 8
Predicted Political Makeup after June 8: Con 12, Lab 3, LibDem 1

1. Blackburn

2010 Result:
Conservative: 11895 (26.1%)
Labour: 21751 (47.8%)
Lib Dem: 6918 (15.2%)
BNP: 2158 (4.7%)
UKIP: 942 (2.1%)
Independent: 238 (0.5%)
Others: 1597 (3.5%)
MAJORITY: 9856 (21.7%)

2015 Result:
Kate Hollern Labour 24,762 56.3 +8.5
Bob Eastwood Conservative 12,002 27.3 +1.1
Dayle Taylor UKIP 6,280 14.3 +12.2
Gordon Lishman Liberal Democrat 955 2.2 −13.0
Majority: 12,760 (29.0%) +8.3
Swing: +3.7% from Con to Lab

Leave Vote: 55.9%

Sitting MP: Kate Hollern (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

2. Blackpool North & Cleveleys

2010 Result:
Conservative: 16964 (41.8%)
Labour: 14814 (36.5%)
Lib Dem: 5400 (13.3%)
BNP: 1556 (3.8%)
UKIP: 1659 (4.1%)
Others: 198 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 2150 (5.3%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Paul Maynard 17,508 44.4 +2.7
Labour Samuel Rushworth 14,168 36.0 -0.5
UKIP Simon Noble 5,823 14.8 +10.7
Liberal Democrat Sue Close 948 2.4 -10.9
Green John Warnock 889 2.3 +2.3
Northern James Walsh 57 0.1 0.1
Majority 3,340 8.5 +3.2
Turnout 39,393 63.1 +1.5

Leave Vote: 66.9%

Sitting MP: Paul Maynard (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

3. Blackpool South

2010 Result:
Conservative: 12597 (35.8%)
Labour: 14449 (41.1%)
Lib Dem: 5082 (14.4%)
BNP: 1482 (4.2%)
UKIP: 1352 (3.8%)
Others: 230 (0.7%)
MAJORITY: 1852 (5.3%)

2015 Result:
Labour Gordon Marsden 13,548 41.8 +0.7
Conservative Peter Anthony 10,963 33.8 −2.0
UKIP Peter Wood 5,613 17.3 +13.5
Green Duncan Royle 841 2.6 +2.6
Liberal Democrat Bill Greene 743 2.3 −12.2
Independent Andy Higgins 655 2.0 +2.0
Independent Lawrence Chard 73 0.2 +0.2
Majority 2,585 8.0 +2.7
Turnout 32,436 56.5 +0.7

Leave Vote: 67.8%
Sitting MP: Gordon Marsden (Lab)
Prediction: Conservative gain

If there’s anything like a certain gain for the Conservatives in the North West, this is it.

4. Burnley

2010 Result:
Conservative: 6950 (16.6%)
Labour: 13114 (31.3%)
Lib Dem: 14932 (35.7%)
BNP: 3747 (9%)
UKIP: 929 (2.2%)
Independent: 1876 (4.5%)
Others: 297 (0.7%)
MAJORITY: 1818 (4.3%)

2015 Result:
Labour Julie Cooper 14,951 37.6 +6.3
Liberal Democrat Gordon Birtwistle 11,707 29.5 −6.2
UKIP Tom Commis 6,864 17.3 +15.0
Conservative Sarah Cockburn-Price 5,374 13.5 −3.1
Green Mike Hargreaves 850 2.1 N/A
Majority 3,244 8.2
Turnout 39,746 61.6

Leave Vote: 64.7%

Sitting MP: Julie Cooper (Lab)
Prediction: Lib Dem gain

Gordon Birtwhistle surprised everyone by taking this seat in 2010, and he had the mother of all struggles to keep it in 2015. He failed then, but he might just regain it this time. The only fly in the ointment is the high Leave vote. I seem to remember that Birtwhistle is a bit of a LibDem Eurosceptic, though. I’m chancing my arm a bit here but I think he could do it, but it may come down to a few hundred votes.

5. Chorley

2010 Result:
Conservative: 18922 (38%)
Labour: 21515 (43.2%)
Lib Dem: 6957 (14%)
UKIP: 2021 (4.1%)
Independent: 359 (0.7%)
MAJORITY: 2593 (5.2%)

2015 Result:
Labour Lindsay Hoyle 23,322 45.1 +1.9
Conservative Robert Loughenbury 18,792 36.3 −1.7
UKIP Mark Smith 6,995 13.5 +9.5
Liberal Democrat Stephen Fenn 1,354 2.6 −11.4
Green Alistair Straw 1,111 2.1 N/A
Independent Adrian Maudsley 138 0.3 N/A
Majority 4,530 8.8
Turnout 51,712 69.2

Leave Vote: 56.7%

Sitting MP: Lindsay Hoyle (Lab)
Prediction: Conservative gain

Not a safe seat, and has been Tory in recent history. However, Lindsay Hoyle is a popular MP locally and he may be more difficult to shift than some think. However, if my predictions on the UKIP vote happen and the Labour vote diminishes in any way, I’m afraid there will have to be a different successor to John Bercow. Which would be a shame.

6. Fylde

2010 Result:
Conservative: 22826 (52.2%)
Labour: 8624 (19.7%)
Lib Dem: 9641 (22.1%)
Green: 654 (1.5%)
UKIP: 1945 (4.5%)
MAJORITY: 13185 (30.2%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Mark Menzies 21,406 49.1 −3.1
Labour Jed Sullivan 8,182 18.8 −1.0
UKIP Paul White 5,569 12.8 +8.3
Independent Mike Hill 5,166 11.9 N/A
Liberal Democrat Freddie van Mierlo 1,623 3.7 −18.3
Green Bob Dennett 1,381 3.2 +1.7
Northern Elizabeth Clarkson 230 0.5 N/A
Majority 13,224 30.4 +0.2
Turnout 43,557 66.3 +0.0

Leave Vote: 56.7%

Sitting MP: Mark Menzies (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

7. Hyndburn

2010 Result:
Conservative: 14441 (33.8%)
Labour: 17531 (41.1%)
Lib Dem: 5033 (11.8%)
BNP: 2137 (5%)
Green: 463 (1.1%)
UKIP: 1481 (3.5%)
English Dem: 413 (1%)
Independent: 378 (0.9%)
Others: 795 (1.9%)
MAJORITY: 3090 (7.2%)

2015 Result:
Labour Graham Jones 18,076 42.1 +1.1
Conservative Kevin Horkin 13,676 31.9 -2.0
UKIP Janet Brown 9,154 21.3 +17.9
Green Kerry Gormley 1,122 2.6 +1.5
Liberal Democrat Alison Firth 859 2.0 -9.8
Majority 4,400 10.3
Turnout 42,887 62.8 -0.7

Leave Vote: 65.8%

Sitting MP: Graham Jones (Lab)
Prediction: Conservative gain

A traditional Tory/Labour marginal the Tories last held this seat in the 1980s and expected to win it back in 2010. Another of those seats that goes Tory in a very good year.

8. Lancaster & Fleetwood

2010 Result:
Conservative: 15404 (36.1%)
Labour: 15071 (35.3%)
Lib Dem: 8167 (19.1%)
BNP: 938 (2.2%)
Green: 1888 (4.4%)
UKIP: 1020 (2.4%)
Independent: 213 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 333 (0.8%)

2015 Result:
Labour Cat Smith 17,643 42.3 +7.0
Conservative Eric Ollerenshaw 16,378 39.2 +3.2
UKIP Matthew Atkins 4,060 9.7 +7.3
Green Chris Coates 2,093 5.0 +0.6
Liberal Democrat Robin Long 1,390 3.3 −15.8
Northern Harold Elletson 174 0.4 +0.4
Majority 1,265 3.0
Turnout 41,738 68.6 +7.5

Leave Vote: 52.0%

Sitting MP: Cat Smith (Lab)
Prediction: Conservative gain

This was won by the Corbynista MP Cat Smith in 2015 but her tenure is to be short lived. Previous MP Eric Ollerenshaw is fighting the seat again.

9. Morecambe & Lunesdale

2010 Result:
Conservative: 18035 (41.5%)
Labour: 17169 (39.5%)
Lib Dem: 5791 (13.3%)
Green: 598 (1.4%)
UKIP: 1843 (4.2%)
MAJORITY: 866 (2%)

2015 Result:
Conservative David Morris 19,691 45.5 +4.0
Labour Amina Lone 15,101 34.9 −4.6
UKIP Steven Ogden 5,358 12.4 +8.1
Liberal Democrat Matthew Severn 1,612 3.7 −9.6
Green Phil Chandler 1,395 3.2 +1.8
Independent Michael Dawson 85 0.2 +0.2
Majority 4,590 10.6 +8.6
Turnout 43,242 65.0 +2.0

Leave Vote: 58.2

Sitting MP: David Morris (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

10. Pendle

2010 Result:
Conservative: 17512 (38.9%)
Labour: 13927 (30.9%)
Lib Dem: 9095 (20.2%)
BNP: 2894 (6.4%)
UKIP: 1476 (3.3%)
Christian: 141 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 3585 (8%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Andrew Stephenson 20,978 47.2 +8.3
Labour Azhar Ali 15,525 34.9 +4.0
UKIP Michael Waddington 5,415 12.2 +8.9
Liberal Democrat Graham Roach 1,487 3.3 −16.8
Green Laura Fisk 1,043 2.3 +2.3
Majority 5,453 12.3 +4.3
Turnout 44,448 68.7 +0.9

Leave Vote: 63.2%

Sitting MP: Andrew Stephenson (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

11. Preston

2010 Result:
Conservative: 7060 (21.7%)
Labour: 15668 (48.2%)
Lib Dem: 7935 (24.4%)
UKIP: 1462 (4.5%)
Christian: 272 (0.8%)
Independent: 108 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 7733 (23.8%)

2015 Result:
Labour Co-op Mark Hendrick 18,755 56.0 +7.8
Conservative Richard Holden 6,688 20.0 −1.7
UKIP James Barker 5,139 15.4 +10.9
Green Gemma Christie 1,643 4.9 N/A
Liberal Democrat Jo Barton 1,244 3.7 −20.7
Majority 12,067 36.1 +12.3
Turnout 33,469 55.8 +3.8

Leave Vote: 55.7%

Sitting MP: Mark Hendrick (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

12. Ribble Valley

2010 Result:
Conservative: 26298 (50.3%)
Labour: 11529 (22%)
Lib Dem: 10732 (20.5%)
UKIP: 3496 (6.7%)
Others: 232 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 14769 (28.2%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Nigel Evans 25,404 48.6 −1.7
Labour David Hinder 11,798 22.6 +0.5
UKIP Shirley Parkinson 8,250 15.8 +9.1
Liberal Democrat Jackie Pearcey 2,756 5.3 −15.2
Green Graham Sowter 2,193 4.2 +4.2
Independent David Brass 1,498 2.9 N/A
Independent Grace Astley 288 0.6 N/A
Independent Tony Johnson 56 0.1 −0.3
Majority 13,606 26.0 −2.3
Turnout 52,243 67.1 +0.1

Leave Vote: 58.7%

Sitting MP: Nigel Evans (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

13. Rossendale & Darwen

2010 Result:
Conservative: 19691 (41.8%)
Labour: 15198 (32.2%)
Lib Dem: 8541 (18.1%)
UKIP: 1617 (3.4%)
English Dem: 663 (1.4%)
Independent: 113 (0.2%)
Others: 1305 (2.8%)
MAJORITY: 4493 (9.5%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Jake Berry 22,847 46.6 +4.8
Labour Will Straw 17,193 35.1 +2.8
UKIP Clive Balchin 6,862 14.0 +10.6
Green Karen Pollard-Rylance 1,046 2.1 N/A
Liberal Democrat Afzal Anwar 806 1.6 −16.5
Independent Kevin Scranage 122 0.2 N/A
TUSC Simon Thomas 103 0.2 N/A
Northern Shaun Hargreaves 45 0.1 N/A
Majority 5,654 11.5 +2.0
Turnout 49,024 66.4 +1.8

Leave Vote: 58.9%

Sitting MP: Jake Berry (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

14. South Ribble

2010 Result:
Conservative: 23396 (45.5%)
Labour: 17842 (34.7%)
Lib Dem: 7271 (14.1%)
BNP: 1054 (2%)
UKIP: 1895 (3.7%)
MAJORITY: 5554 (10.8%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Seema Kennedy 24,313 46.4 +1.0
Labour Veronica Bennett 18,368 35.1 +0.4
UKIP David Gallagher 7,377 14.1 +10.4
Liberal Democrat Sue McGuire 2,312 4.4 −9.7
Majority 5,945 11.4 +0.6
Turnout 52,370 68.5 +0.6

Leave Vote: 56.6%

Sitting MP: Seema Kennedy (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

15. West Lancashire

2010 Result:
Conservative: 17540 (36.2%)
Labour: 21883 (45.1%)
Lib Dem: 6573 (13.6%)
Green: 485 (1%)
UKIP: 1775 (3.7%)
Others: 217 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 4343 (9%)

2015 Result:
Labour Rosie Cooper 24,474 49.3 +4.1
Conservative Paul Greenall 16,114 32.4 −3.7
UKIP Jack Sen1 6,058 12.2 +8.5
Green Ben Basson 1,582 3.2 +2.2
Liberal Democrat Daniel Lewis 1,298 2.6 −10.9
Independent David Braid 150 0.3 −0.1
Majority 8,360 16.8 +7.8
Turnout 49,676 70.0 +6.2

Leave Vote: 55.0%

Sitting MP: Rosie Cooper (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Ken Hind held this seat for the Tories from 1983-92. Might fall in a big majority, but I’ll stick with a Labour gain for now.

16. Wyre & Preston North

2010 Result:
Conservative: 26877 (52.4%)
Labour: 10932 (21.3%)
Lib Dem: 11033 (21.5%)
UKIP: 2466 (4.8%)
MAJORITY: 15844 (30.9%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Ben Wallace 26,528 53.2 +0.8
Labour Ben Whittingham 12,377 24.8 +3.5
UKIP Kate Walsh 6,577 13.2 +8.4
Liberal Democrat John Potter 2,712 5.4 -16.1
Green Anne Power 1,699 3.4 +3.4
Majority 14,151 28.4 -2.5
Turnout 49,893 70.6 -1.5

Leave Vote: 54.2%

Sitting MP: Ben Wallace (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

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General Election Predictions

General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 26. London - East

29 Apr 2017 at 20:26

Seats: 8
Current Political Makeup: Con 2, Lab 6
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 3, Lab 5

Barking

2010 Result:
Conservative: 8073 (17.8%)
Labour: 24628 (54.3%)
Lib Dem: 3719 (8.2%)
BNP: 6620 (14.6%)
Green: 317 (0.7%)
UKIP: 1300 (2.9%)
Christian: 482 (1.1%)
Independent: 77 (0.2%)
Others: 127 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 16555 (36.5%)

2015 Result:
Labour Margaret Hodge 24,826 57.7 +3.4
UKIP Roger Gravett 9,554 22.2 +19.3
Conservative Mina Rahman13 7,019 16.3 −1.5
Green Tony Rablen 879 2.0 +1.3
Liberal Democrat Peter Wilcock 562 1.3 −6.9
TUSC Joseph Mambuliya14 183 0.4 N/A
Majority 15,272 35.5 -1.0
Turnout 43,023 58.2 -3.2

Leave Vote: 59.6%

Sitting MP: Margaret Hodge (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Bethnal Green & Bow

2010 Result:
Conservative: 7071 (13.9%)
Labour: 21784 (42.9%)
Lib Dem: 10210 (20.1%)
BNP: 1405 (2.8%)
Green: 856 (1.7%)
Respect: 8532 (16.8%)
Independent: 277 (0.5%)
Others: 593 (1.2%)
MAJORITY: 11574 (22.8%)

2015 Result:
Rushanara Ali Labour 32,387 61.2 +18.3
Matthew Smith Conservative 8,070 15.2 +1.3
Alistair Polson Green 4,906 9.3 +7.6
Pauline McQueen UKIP 3,219 6.1 N/A
Teena Lashmore Liberal Democrat 2,395 4.5 −15.6
Glyn Robbins TUSC 949 1.8 N/A
M Rowshan Ali Communities United 356 0.7 N/A
Jonathan Dewey CISTA 303 0.6 N/A
Alasdair Henderson15 Whig 203 0.4 N/A
Elliot Ball The 30–50 Coalition 78 0.1 N/A
Jason Pavlou Red Flag Anti-Corruption 58 0.1 N/A
Majority: 24,317 (45.9%) +23.1
Swing: 8.5% from Con to Lab

Leave Vote: 30.9%

Sitting MP: Rushanara Ali (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Dagenham & Rainham

2010 Result:
Conservative: 15183 (34.3%)
Labour: 17813 (40.3%)
Lib Dem: 3806 (8.6%)
BNP: 4952 (11.2%)
Green: 296 (0.7%)
UKIP: 1569 (3.5%)
Christian: 305 (0.7%)
Independent: 308 (0.7%)
MAJORITY: 2630 (5.9%)

2015 Result:
Labour Jon Cruddas 17,830 41.4 +1.1
UKIP Peter Harris 12,850 29.8 +26.3
Conservative Julie Marson 10,492 24.4 -10.0
Green Kate Simpson8 806 1.9 +1.2
Liberal Democrat Denise Capstick910 717 1.7 -6.9
BNP Tess Culnane 151 0.4 -10.8
Independent Terry London 133 0.3 +0.3
English Democrat Kim Gandy 71 0.2 +0.2
Majority 4,980 11.6 +5.7
Turnout 43,050 62.3 -0.9

Leave Vote: 70.34

Sitting MP: Jon Cruddas (Lab)
Prediction: Conservative gain

This seat has threatened to go Tory for some time and in 2010 it nearly did. In 2015 UKIP surprised everyone by coming second. Their vote is likely to diminish massively in this election to the benefit of the Conservatives.

East Ham

2010 Result:
Conservative: 7645 (15.2%)
Labour: 35471 (70.4%)
Lib Dem: 5849 (11.6%)
Green: 586 (1.2%)
English Dem: 822 (1.6%)
MAJORITY: 27826 (55.2%)

2015 Result:
Labour Stephen Timms 40,563 77.6 +7.2
Conservative Samir Jassal 6,311 12.1 −3.1
UKIP Daniel Oxley 2,622 5.0 N/A
Green Tamsin Omond7 1,299 2.5 +1.3
Liberal Democrat David Thorpe 856 1.6 −10.0
Communities United Mohammed Aslam 409 0.8 N/A
TUSC Lois Austin 8 230 0.4 N/A
Majority 34,252 65.5 +10.3
Turnout 52,290 59.8 +4.2

Leave Vote: 46.3%

Sitting MP: Stephen Timms (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Hackney South & Shoreditch

2010 Result:
Conservative: 5800 (13.5%)
Labour: 23888 (55.7%)
Lib Dem: 9600 (22.4%)
Green: 1493 (3.5%)
UKIP: 651 (1.5%)
Liberal: 539 (1.3%)
Christian: 434 (1%)
Independent: 95 (0.2%)
Others: 358 (0.8%)
MAJORITY: 14288 (33.3%)

2015 Result:
Labour Co-op Meg Hillier 30,633 64.4 +8.7
Conservative Jack Tinley 6,420 13.5 0.0
Green Charlotte George 5,519 11.6 +8.6
Liberal Democrat Ben Mathis 2,186 4.6 −17.8
UKIP Angus Small 1,818 3.8 +2.3
TUSC Brian Debus 302 0.6 +0.6
CISTA Paul Birch 297 0.6 +0.6
Christian Peoples Taiwo Adewuyi 236 0.5 +0.5
Independent Russell Shaw Higgs 78 0.2 +0.2
Workers Revolutionary Bill Rogers 63 0.1 +0.1
Campaign Gordon Shrigley7 28 0.1 +0.1
Majority 24,213 50.9 +19.3
Turnout 47,580 56.0 −2.9

Leave Vote: 22.8%

Sitting MP: Meg Hillier (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Hornchurch & Upminster

2010 Result:
Conservative: 27469 (51.4%)
Labour: 11098 (20.8%)
Lib Dem: 7426 (13.9%)
BNP: 3421 (6.4%)
Green: 542 (1%)
UKIP: 2848 (5.3%)
Christian: 281 (0.5%)
Independent: 305 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 16371 (30.7%

2015 Result:
Conservative Angela Watkinson 27,051 49.0 -2.5
UKIP Lawrence Webb 13,977 25.3 +20.0
Labour Paul McGeary 11,103 20.1 -0.7
Liberal Democrat Jonathan Mitchell 1,501 2.7 -11.2
Green Melanie Collins 1,411 2.6 +1.5
BNP Paul Borg 193 0.3 -6.1
Majority 13,074 23.7 -11.25
Turnout 55,236 69.6 +1.6

Leave Vote: 69.8%

Sitting MP: Angela Watkinson (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Romford

2010 Result:
Conservative: 26031 (56%)
Labour: 9077 (19.5%)
Lib Dem: 5572 (12%)
BNP: 2438 (5.2%)
Green: 447 (1%)
UKIP: 2050 (4.4%)
English Dem: 603 (1.3%)
Independent: 151 (0.3%)
Others: 112 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 16954 (36.5%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Andrew Rosindell 25,067 51.0 −5.0
UKIP Gerard Batten 11,208 22.8 +18.4
Labour Sam Gould 10,268 20.9 +1.4
Liberal Democrat Ian Sanderson7 1,413 2.9 −9.1
Green Lorna Tooley8 1,222 2.5 +1.5
Majority 13,859 28.2 −8.3
Turnout 49,178 67.7 +2.4

2015 Result:
Conservative Andrew Rosindell 25,067 51.0 −5.0
UKIP Gerard Batten 11,208 22.8 +18.4
Labour Sam Gould 10,268 20.9 +1.4
Liberal Democrat Ian Sanderson7 1,413 2.9 −9.1
Green Lorna Tooley8 1,222 2.5 +1.5
Majority 13,859 28.2 −8.3
Turnout 49,178 67.7 +2.4

Leave Vote: 67.4%

Sitting MP: Andrew Rosindell
Prediction: Conservative hold

West Ham

2010 Result:
Conservative: 6888 (14.7%)
Labour: 29422 (62.7%)
Lib Dem: 5392 (11.5%)
Green: 645 (1.4%)
UKIP: 766 (1.6%)
Independent: 1245 (2.7%)
Others: 2593 (5.5%)
MAJORITY: 22534 (48%)

2015 Result:
Labour Lyn Brown 36,132 68.4 +5.8
Conservative Festus Akinbusoye 8,146 15.4 +0.8
UKIP Jamie McKenzie12 3,950 7.5 +5.9
Green Rachel Collinson13 2,651 5.0 +3.6
Liberal Democrat Paul Reynolds14 1,430 2.7 -8.8
Christian Peoples Andy Uzoka 369 0.7 -2.1
Communities United Cydatty Bogie 115 0.2 +0.2
Majority 27,986 53.0 +5.0
Turnout 52,793 58.2 +3.2

Leave Vote: 48%

Sitting MP: Lyn Brown (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

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General Election Predictions

General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 25. Merseyside

29 Apr 2017 at 19:14

MERSEYSIDE

Seats: 15
Current Political Makeup: Lab 14, LibDem 1
Predicted Political Makeup after June 8: Con 2, Lab 13

1. Birkenhead

2010 Result:
Conservative: 6687 (18.9%)
Labour: 22082 (62.5%)
Lib Dem: 6554 (18.6%)
MAJORITY: 15395 (43.6%)

2015 Result:
Labour Frank Field 26,468 67.6 +5.1
Conservative Clark Vasey 5,816 14.9 -4.1
UKIP Wayne Harling 3,838 9.8 +9.8
Green Kenny Peers 1,626 4.2 +4.2
Liberal Democrat Allan Brame 1,396 3.6 -15.0
Majority 20,652 52.8 +9.2
Turnout 39,144 62.7 +5.1

Leave Vote: 52.7%

Sitting MP: Frank Field (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

2. Bootle

2010 Result:
Conservative: 3678 (8.9%)
Labour: 27426 (66.4%)
Lib Dem: 6245 (15.1%)
BNP: 942 (2.3%)
UKIP: 2514 (6.1%)
TUSC: 472 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 21181 (51.3%)

2015 Result:
Labour Peter Dowd 33,619 74.5 +8.0
UKIP Paul Nuttall 4,915 10.9 +4.8
Conservative Jade Marsden 3,639 8.1 -0.9
Green Lisa Tallis 1,501 3.3 N/A
Liberal Democrat David Newman 978 2.2 -13.0
TUSC Peter Glover 500 1.1 0.0
Majority 28,704 63.6 +12.3
Turnout 45,152 64.4 +6.6

Leave Vote: 54.8%

Sitting MP: Peter Dowd (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

3. Garston & Halewood

2010 Result:
Conservative: 6908 (16.1%)
Labour: 25493 (59.5%)
Lib Dem: 8616 (20.1%)
UKIP: 1540 (3.6%)
Respect: 268 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 16877 (39.4%)

2015 Result:
Labour Maria Eagle 33,839 69.1 +9.6
Conservative Martin Williams 6,693 13.7 -2.5
UKIP Carl Schears 4,482 9.2 +5.6
Liberal Democrat Anna Martin 2,279 4.7 -15.5
Green Will Ward 1,690 3.5 +3.5
Majority 27,146 55.4 +16.0
Turnout 48,983 66.1 +6.0

Leave Vote: 47.96%

Sitting MP: Maria Eagle (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

4. Knowsley

2010 Result:
Conservative: 4004 (9%)
Labour: 31650 (70.9%)
Lib Dem: 5964 (13.4%)
BNP: 1895 (4.2%)
UKIP: 1145 (2.6%)
MAJORITY: 25686 (57.5%)

2015 Result:
Labour George Howarth 39,628 78.1 +7.2
UKIP Louise Bours 4,973 9.8 +7.2
Conservative Alice Bramall 3,367 6.6 -2.3
Liberal Democrat Carl Cashman 1,490 2.9 -10.4
Green Vikki Gregorich 1,270 2.5 N/A
Majority 34,655 68.3 +10.8
Turnout 50,728 64.1 +8.0

Leave Vote: 52.34%

Sitting MP: George Howarth (Lab)
Prediction: :Labour hold

5. Liverpool Riverside

2010 Result:
Conservative: 4243 (10.9%)
Labour: 22998 (59.3%)
Lib Dem: 8825 (22.7%)
BNP: 706 (1.8%)
Green: 1355 (3.5%)
UKIP: 674 (1.7%)
MAJORITY: 14173 (36.5%)

2015 Result:
Labour Co-op Louise Ellman 29,835 67.4 +8.1
Green Martin Dobson 5,372 12.1 +8.6
Conservative Jackson Ng 4,245 9.6 −1.3
UKIP Joe Chiffers 2,510 5.7 +3.9
Liberal Democrat Paul Childs 1,719 3.9 −18.9
TUSC Tony Mulhearn 582 1.3 +1.3
Majority 24,463 55.3 +18.8
Turnout 44,263 62.4 +10.3

Leave Vote: 27.3%

Sitting MP: Louise Ellman (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

6. Liverpool Walton

2010 Result:
Conservative: 2241 (6.5%)
Labour: 24709 (72%)
Lib Dem: 4891 (14.2%)
BNP: 1104 (3.2%)
UKIP: 898 (2.6%)
TUSC: 195 (0.6%)
Others: 297 (0.9%)
MAJORITY: 19818 (57.7%)

2015 Result:
Labour Steve Rotheram 31,222 81.3 +9.3
UKIP Steven Flatman 3,445 9.0 +6.4
Conservative Norsheen Bhatti 1,802 4.7 -1.8
Green Jonathan Clatworthy 956 2.5 N/A
Liberal Democrat Patrick Moloney 899 2.3 −11.9
Independent Alexander Karran 56 0.1 N/A
The Pluralist Party Jonathan Bishop 23 0.1 N/A
Majority 27,777 72.3 +14.6
Turnout 38,403 61.1 +6.3

Leave Vote: 52.2%

Sitting MP: Steve Rotheram (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

7. Liverpool Wavertree

2010 Result:
Conservative: 2830 (7.5%)
Labour: 20132 (53.1%)
Lib Dem: 12965 (34.2%)
BNP: 150 (0.4%)
Green: 598 (1.6%)
UKIP: 890 (2.3%)
Independent: 149 (0.4%)
Others: 200 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 7167 (18.9%)

2015 Result:
Labour Co-op Luciana Berger 28,401 69.3 +16.2
Conservative James Pearson 4,098 10.0 +2.5
UKIP Adam Heatherington 3,375 8.2 +5.9
Liberal Democrat Leo Evans 2,454 6.0 -28.2
Green Peter Cranie 2,140 5.2 +3.6
TUSC David Walsh 362 0.9 New
Independent Niamh McCarthy 144 0.4 New
Majority 24,303 59.3 +40.4
Turnout 40,974 66.4 +5.8

Leave Vote: 35.26%

Sitting MP: Luciana Berger (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

8. Liverpool West Derby

2010 Result:
Conservative: 3311 (9.3%)
Labour: 22953 (64.1%)
Lib Dem: 4486 (12.5%)
UKIP: 1093 (3.1%)
Liberal: 3327 (9.3%)
Others: 614 (1.7%)
MAJORITY: 18467 (51.6%)

2015 Result:
Labour Co-op Stephen Twigg 30,842 75.2 +11.0
UKIP Neil Miney 3,475 8.5 +5.4
Conservative Ed McRandal 2,710 6.6 −2.6
Liberal Steve Radford 2,049 5.0 −4.3
Green Rebecca Lawson 996 2.4 N/A
Liberal Democrat Paul Twigger 959 2.3 −10.2
Majority 27,367 66.7 +16.1
Turnout 41,031 64.2 +7.5

Leave Vote: 49.82%

Sitting MP: Stephen Twigg (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

9. Sefton Central

2010 Result:
Conservative: 16445 (33.9%)
Labour: 20307 (41.9%)
Lib Dem: 9656 (19.9%)
UKIP: 2055 (4.2%)
MAJORITY: 3862 (8%)

2015 Result:
Labour Bill Esterson 26,359 53.8 +11.9
Conservative Valerie Allen 14,513 29.6 -4.3
UKIP Tim Power 4,879 10.0 +5.7
Liberal Democrat Paula Keaveney 2,086 4.3 -15.7
Green Lindsay Melia 1,184 2.4 +2.4
Majority 11,846 24.2
Turnout 49,021 72.4

Sitting MP: Bill Esterson (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

10. Southport

2010 Result:
Conservative: 15683 (35.8%)
Labour: 4116 (9.4%)
Lib Dem: 21707 (49.6%)
UKIP: 2251 (5.1%)
MAJORITY: 6024 (13.8%)

2015 Result:
Liberal Democrat John Pugh 13,652 31.0 −18.7
Conservative Damien Moore 12,330 28.0 −7.9
Labour Liz Savage 8,468 19.2 +9.8
UKIP Terry Durrance 7,429 16.8 +11.7
Green Laurence Rankin 1,230 2.8 N/A
Southport Party Jacqueline Barlow 992 2.2 N/A
Majority 1,322 3.0 -10.8
Turnout 44,101 65.5 +0.4

Leave Vote: 46.3%

Sitting MP: John Pugh (LibDem)
Prediction: Conservative gain

*This seat has alternated between the LibDems and Conservatives for years, although the last time the Tories won it was in 1992. Labour are nowhere here. The reason why I think the Tories may win this time is that the UKIP vote shot up last time as their expense. If half that vote returns the LibDems will find it very difficult to retain this seat.

11. St Helens North

2010 Result:
Conservative: 9940 (22.3%)
Labour: 23041 (51.7%)
Lib Dem: 8992 (20.2%)
UKIP: 2100 (4.7%)
Others: 483 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 13101 (29.4%)

2015 Result:
Labour Conor McGinn 26,378 57.0 +5.3
Conservative Paul Richardson 9,087 19.6 −2.7
UKIP Ian Smith 6,983 15.1 +10.4
Liberal Democrat Denise Aspinall 2,046 4.4 −15.8
Green Elizabeth Ward 1,762 3.8 +3.8
Majority 17,291 37.4 +8.0
Turnout 46,256 61.5 +1.7

Leave Vote: 58.39%

Sitting MP: Conor McGinn (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

12. St Helens South & Whiston

2010 Result:
Conservative: 8209 (17.8%)
Labour: 24364 (52.9%)
Lib Dem: 10242 (22.2%)
BNP: 2040 (4.4%)
UKIP: 1226 (2.7%)
MAJORITY: 14122 (30.6%)

2015 Result:
Labour Marie Rimmer 28,950 59.8 +6.9
Conservative Gillian Keegan 7,707 15.9 −1.9
UKIP John Beirne 6,766 14.0 +11.3
Liberal Democrat Brian Spencer 2,737 5.7 −16.6
Green James Chan 2,237 4.6 +4.6
Majority 21,243 43.9 +13.3
Turnout 48,397 62.3 +3.2

Leave Vote: 56.1%

Sitting MP: Marie Rimmer (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

13. Wallasey

2010 Result:
Conservative: 13071 (31.4%)
Labour: 21578 (51.8%)
Lib Dem: 5693 (13.7%)
UKIP: 1205 (2.9%)
Independent: 107 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 8507 (20.4%)

2015 Result:
Labour Angela Eagle 26,176 60.4 +8.6
Conservative Chris Clarkson 9,828 22.7 -8.7
UKIP Geoffrey Caton 5,063 11.7 +8.8
Green Julian Pratt 1,288 3.0 +3.0
Liberal Democrat Kris Brown 1,011 2.3 -11.3
Majority 16,348 37.7 +17.3
Turnout 43,366 66.2 +3.0

Leave Vote: 52.5%

Sitting MP: Angela Eagle (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Hard to believe this was ever a Conservative seat.

14. Wirral South

2010 Result:
Conservative: 15745 (39.5%)
Labour: 16276 (40.8%)
Lib Dem: 6611 (16.6%)
UKIP: 1274 (3.2%)
MAJORITY: 531 (1.3%)

2015 Result:
Labour Alison McGovern 20,165 48.2 +7.4
Conservative John Bell 15,566 37.2 −2.2
UKIP David Scott 3,737 8.9 +5.7
Liberal Democrat Elizabeth Jewkes 1,474 3.5 −13.0
Green Paul Cartlidge 895 2.1 +2.1
Majority 4,599 11.0
Turnout 41,837 73.5

Leave Vote: 45.5%

Sitting MP: Alison McGovern (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

A very difficult seat to call. The LibDem vote last time went to Labour. Could some of it return this time? The UKIP vote here is not huge. Alison McGovern has got a good reputation and if anyone can hold this seat I expect her to.

15. Wirral West

2010 Result:
Conservative: 16726 (42.5%)
Labour: 14290 (36.3%)
Lib Dem: 6630 (16.8%)
UKIP: 899 (2.3%)
Independent: 506 (1.3%)
Others: 321 (0.8%)
MAJORITY: 2436 (6.2%)

2015 Result:
Labour Margaret Greenwood 18,898 45.1 +8.9
Conservative Esther McVey 18,481 44.2 +1.7
UKIP Hilary Jones 2,772 6.6 +4.3
Liberal Democrat Peter Reisdorf 1,433 3.4 −13.4
Independent David James 274 0.7 -0.1
Majority 417 1.0
Turnout 41,858 75.6

Leave Vote: 42.6%

Sitting MP: Margaret Greenwood (Lab)
Prediction: Conservative gain

Esther McVey’s former seat. I expect it to return to the Tory fold.

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General Election Predictions

General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 24. Cheshire

29 Apr 2017 at 18:44

CHESHIRE

Seats: 11
Current Political Makeup: Con 7, Lab 4
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 8, Lab 3

1. City of Chester

2010 Result:
Conservative: 18995 (40.6%)
Labour: 16412 (35.1%)
Lib Dem: 8930 (19.1%)
Green: 535 (1.1%)
UKIP: 1225 (2.6%)
English Dem: 594 (1.3%)
Independent: 99 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 2583 (5.5%)

2015 Result:
Labour Chris Matheson 22,118 43.2 +8.2
Conservative Stephen Mosley 22,025 43.1 +2.5
UKIP Steve Ingram 4,148 8.1 +5.5
Liberal Democrat Bob Thompson 2,870 5.6 -13.5
Majority 93 0.2
Turnout 51,161 70.8 +2.9

Leave Vote: 42.28%

Sitting MP: Chris Matheson (Lab)
Prediction: Conservative gain

This seat swings with the political wind. And it will again this time.

2. Congleton

2010 Result:
Conservative: 23250 (45.8%)
Labour: 8747 (17.2%)
Lib Dem: 16187 (31.9%)
UKIP: 2147 (4.2%)
Independent: 276 (0.5%)
Others: 173 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 7063 (13.9%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Fiona Bruce 27,164 53.3 +7.5
Labour Darren Price 10,391 20.4 +3.2
UKIP Lee Slaughter 6,922 13.6 +9.4
Liberal Democrat Peter Hirst 4,623 9.1 −22.8
Green Alec Heath 1,876 3.7 +3.7
Majority 16,773 32.9 +19
Turnout 50,976 70.4 +1.5

Vote Leave: 52.61%

Sitting MP: Fiona Bruce (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

3. Crewe & Nantwich

2010 Result:
Conservative: 23420 (45.8%)
Labour: 17374 (34%)
Lib Dem: 7656 (15%)
BNP: 1043 (2%)
UKIP: 1414 (2.8%)
Independent: 177 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 6046 (11.8%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Edward Timpson 22,445 45.0 -0.9
Labour Adrian Heald 18,825 37.7 +3.7
UKIP Richard Lee 7,252 14.5 +11.8
Liberal Democrat Roy Wood 1,374 2.8 -12.2
Majority 3,620 7.3 -4.5
Turnout 49,896 67.4 +1.5

Vote Leave: 60.3%

Sitting MP: Edward Timpson (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Edward Timpson has cemented himself into this seat since he won the byelection and I think Labour are going to find it very hard to shift him.

4. Eddisbury

2010 Result:
Conservative: 23472 (51.7%)
Labour: 9794 (21.6%)
Lib Dem: 10217 (22.5%)
UKIP: 1931 (4.3%)
MAJORITY: 13255 (29.2%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Antoinette Sandbach 24,167 51.0 −0.6
Labour James Laing 11,193 23.6 +2.1
UKIP Rob Millington 5,778 12.2 +8.0
Liberal Democrat Ian Priestner 4,289 9.1 −13.4
Green Andrew Garman 1,624 3.4 N/A
CISTA George Antar 301 0.6 N/A
Majority 12,974 27.4
Turnout 47,352 69.0

Leave Vote: 52.17%

Sitting MP: Antoinette Sandbach (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

5. Ellesmere Port & Neston

2010 Result:
Conservative: 15419 (34.9%)
Labour: 19750 (44.6%)
Lib Dem: 6663 (15.1%)
UKIP: 1619 (3.7%)
Independent: 782 (1.8%)
MAJORITY: 4331 (9.8%)

2015 Result:
Labour Justin Madders 22,316 47.8 +3.1
Conservative Katherine Fletcher 16,041 34.3 −0.5
UKIP Jonathan Starkey 5,594 12.0 +8.3
Liberal Democrat Trish Derraugh 1,563 3.3 −11.7
Green Michelle Palmer 990 2.1 N/A
TUSC Felicity Dowling 192 0.4 N/A
Independent John Dyer 31 0.1 N/A
Majority 6,275 13.4
Turnout 46,727 68.6

Leave Vote: 58.34%

Sitting MP: Justin Madders (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

A difficult one to call. In a Tory landslide this seat might possibly go Conservative, but I’d say it’s less than 50-50.

6. Halton

2010 Result:
Conservative: 8339 (20.2%)
Labour: 23843 (57.7%)
Lib Dem: 5718 (13.8%)
BNP: 1563 (3.8%)
Green: 647 (1.6%)
UKIP: 1228 (3%)
MAJORITY: 15504 (37.5%)

2015 Result:
Labour Derek Twigg 28,292 62.8 +5.2
Conservative Matthew Lloyd 8,007 17.8 −2.4
UKIP Glyn Redican 6,333 14.1 +11.1
Liberal Democrat Ryan Bate 1,097 2.4 −11.4
Green David Melvin 1,017 2.3 +0.7
Independent Vic Turton 277 0.6 +0.6
Majority 20,285 45.1
Turnout 45,023 61.8

Leave Vote: 57.67%

Sitting MP: Derek Twigg (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

7. Macclesfield

2010 Result:
Conservative: 23503 (47%)
Labour: 10164 (20.3%)
Lib Dem: 11544 (23.1%)
Green: 840 (1.7%)
UKIP: 1418 (2.8%)
Others: 2590 (5.2%)
MAJORITY: 11959 (23.9%)

2015 Result:
Conservative David Rutley 26,063 52.5 +5.6
Labour Tim Roca 11,252 22.7 +2.4
UKIP Adrian Howard 6,037 12.2 +9.3
Liberal Democrat Neil Christian 3,842 7.7 −15.3
Green Joan Plimmer 2,404 4.8 +3.2
Majority 14,811 29.9
Turnout 49,598 69.3

Leave Vote: 47.18%

Sitting MP: David Rutley (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

8. Tatton

2010 Result:
Conservative: 24687 (54.6%)
Labour: 7803 (17.3%)
Lib Dem: 10200 (22.6%)
Independent: 2243 (5%)
Others: 298 (0.7%)
MAJORITY: 14487 (32%)

2015 Result:
Conservative George Osborne 26,552 58.6 Increase 4.0
Labour David Pinto-Duschinsky 8,311 18.3 Increase 1.1
UKIP Stuart Hutton 4,871 10.8 N/A
Liberal Democrat Gareth Wilson 3,850 8.5 Decrease 14.1
Green Tina Rothery 1,714 3.8 N/A
Majority 18,241 40.3 Increase 8.3
Turnout 45,298 70.2 Decrease 0.4

Leave Vote: 45.63%

Sitting MP: George Osborne (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

9. Warrington North

2010 Result:
Conservative: 13364 (30.2%)
Labour: 20135 (45.5%)
Lib Dem: 9196 (20.8%)
Independent: 1516 (3.4%)
MAJORITY: 6771 (15.3%)

2015 Result:
Labour Helen Jones 21,720 47.8 +2.3
Conservative Richard Short 12,797 28.2 -2.1
UKIP Trevor Nicholls 7,757 17.1 N/A
Liberal Democrat Stefan Krizanac 1,881 4.1 −16.7
Green Sarah Hayes 1,264 2.8 N/A
Majority 8,923 19.6
Turnout 45,419 62.5

Leave Vote: 58.07%

Sitting MP: Helen Jones (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

10. Warrington South

2010 Result:
Conservative: 19641 (35.8%)
Labour: 18088 (33%)
Lib Dem: 15094 (27.5%)
Green: 427 (0.8%)
UKIP: 1624 (3%)
MAJORITY: 1553 (2.8%)

2015 Result:
Conservative David Mowat 25,928 43.7 +7.9
Labour Nick Bent 23,178 39.1 +6.1
UKIP Mal Lingley 4,909 8.3 +5.3
Liberal Democrat Bob Barr 3,335 5.6 -21.9
Green Stephanie Davies 1,765 3.0 +2.2
TUSC Kevin Bennett 238 0.4 +0.4
Majority 2,750 4.6 +1.8
Turnout 59,353 69.4 +1.2

Sitting MP: David Mowat (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

11. Weaver Vale

2010 Result:
Conservative: 16953 (38.5%)
Labour: 15962 (36.3%)
Lib Dem: 8196 (18.6%)
BNP: 1063 (2.4%)
Green: 338 (0.8%)
UKIP: 1018 (2.3%)
Independent: 270 (0.6%)
Others: 190 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 991 (2.3%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Graham Evans 20,227 43.2 +4.6
Labour Julia Tickridge 19,421 41.4 +5.2
UKIP Amos Wright 4,547 9.7 +7.4
Liberal Democrat Mary Di Mauro 1,395 3.0 −15.7
Green Chris Copeman 1,183 2.5 +1.8
TUSC Joseph Whyte 94 0.2 +0.2
Majority 806 1.7 -0.6
Turnout 46,867 68.5 -2.4

Leave Vote: 50.55%

Sitting MP: Graham Evans (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Two wafer thin majorities for Graham Evans. I suspect he’ll enjoy something north of 4,000 this time.

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General Election Predictions

General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 23. Shropshire

29 Apr 2017 at 16:37

SHROPSHIRE

Seats: 5
Current Political Makeup: Con 5
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 5

1. Ludlow

2010 Result:
Conservative: 25720 (52.8%)
Labour: 3272 (6.7%)
Lib Dem: 15971 (32.8%)
BNP: 1016 (2.1%)
Green: 447 (0.9%)
UKIP: 2127 (4.4%)
Others: 179 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 9749 (20%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Philip Dunne 26,093 54.3 +1.5
UKIP David Kelly10 7,164 14.9 +10.5
Liberal Democrat Charlotte Barnes11 6,469 13.5 -19.3
Labour Simon Slater12 5,902 12.3 +5.6
Green Janet Phillips13 2,435 5.1 +4.1
Majority 18,929 39.4
Turnout 48,063 72.4

Leave Vote: 57.88%

Sitting MP: Philip Dunne (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

2. North Shropshire

2010 Result:
Conservative: 26692 (51.5%)
Labour: 9406 (18.1%)
Lib Dem: 10864 (20.9%)
BNP: 1667 (3.2%)
Green: 808 (1.6%)
UKIP: 2432 (4.7%)
MAJORITY: 15828 (30.5%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Owen Paterson 27,041 51.5 0
Labour Graeme Currie 10,457 19.9 +1.8
UKIP Andrea Allen7 9,262 17.6 +12.9
Liberal Democrat Tom Thornhill 3,184 6.0 -14.9
Green Duncan Kerr8 2,575 4.9 +3.3
Majority 16,584 31.6 0
Turnout 52,483 67.6 +0.9

Leave Vote: 59.85%

Sitting MP: Owen Paterson (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Safe seat.

3. Shrewsbury & Atcham

2010 Result:
Conservative: 23313 (43.9%)
Labour: 10915 (20.6%)
Lib Dem: 15369 (29%)
BNP: 1168 (2.2%)
Green: 565 (1.1%)
UKIP: 1627 (3.1%)
Others: 88 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 7944 (15%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Daniel Kawczynski 24,628 45.5 +1.6
Labour Laura Davies 15,063 27.8 +7.3
UKIP Suzanne Evans 7,813 14.4 +11.4
Liberal Democrat Christine Tinker 4,268 7.9 -21.1
Green Emma Bullard 2,247 4.2 +3.1
Children of the Atom Stirling McNeillie 83 0.2 N/A
Majority 9,565 17.7
Turnout 54,102 70.8 +1.0

Leave Vote: 52.92%

Sitting MP: Daniel Kawczynski (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

4. Telford

2010 Result:
Conservative: 14996 (36.3%)
Labour: 15974 (38.7%)
Lib Dem: 6399 (15.5%)
BNP: 1513 (3.7%)
UKIP: 2428 (5.9%)
MAJORITY: 978 (2.4%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Lucy Allan8 16,094 39.6 +3.3
Labour David Wright 15,364 37.8 −0.9
UKIP Denis Allen 7,330 18.0 +12.2
Green Peter Hawkins 930 2.3 +2.3
Liberal Democrat Ian Croll 927 2.3 −13.2
Majority 730 1.8
Turnout 40,645 61.4

Sitting MP: Lucy Allan (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Very narrow win for Lucy Allan last time, but she has proved to be a controversial choice. There were moves to deselect her. Her fate will be determined by national swings rather than local ones.

5. The Wrekin

2010 Result:
Conservative: 21922 (47.7%)
Labour: 12472 (27.1%)
Lib Dem: 8019 (17.4%)
BNP: 1505 (3.3%)
UKIP: 2050 (4.5%)
MAJORITY: 9450 (20.6%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Mark Pritchard 22,579 49.7 +2.0
Labour Katrina Gilman 11,836 26.0 -1.1
UKIP Jill Seymour 7,620 16.8 +12.3
Liberal Democrat Rod Keyes 1,959 4.3 -13.1
Green Cath Edwards10 1,443 3.2 +3.2
Majority 10,743 23.6 +3.0
Turnout 45,437 68.9 -1.2

Leave Vote: 59.32%

Sitting MP: Mark Pritchard (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

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General Election Predictions

General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 22. Yorkshire West

29 Apr 2017 at 15:03

WEST YORKSHIRE

Seats: 22
Current Political Makeup: Con 7, Lab 14, Lib 1
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 11, Lab, 10, Lib 1

1. Batley & Spen

2010 Result:
Conservative: 17159 (33.6%)
Labour: 21565 (42.2%)
Lib Dem: 8095 (15.8%)
BNP: 3685 (7.2%)
Green: 605 (1.2%)
MAJORITY: 4406 (8.6%)

2015 Result:
Labour Jo Cox 21,826 43.2 +1.7
Conservative Imtiaz Ameen 15,769 31.2 −1.8
UKIP Aleks Lukic 9,080 18.0 N/A
Liberal Democrat John Lawson 2,396 4.7 −11.1
Green Ian Bullock 1,232 2.4 +1.3
TUSC Dawn Wheelhouse 123 0.2 N/A
Patriotic Socialist Karl Varley 53 0.1 N/A
Majority 6,057 12.0
Turnout 50,479 64.4

2016 By Election Result:
Labour Tracy Brabin 17,506 85.8 +42.6
English Democrat Therese Muchewicz 969 4.8 N/A
BNP David Furness 548 2.7 N/A
Independent Garry Kitchin 517 2.5 N/A
English Independence Corbyn Anti 241 1.2 N/A
Liberty GB Jack Buckby 220 1.0 N/A
Independent Henry Mayhew 153 0.8 N/A
Independent Waqas Ali Khan 118 0.6 N/A
National Front Richard Edmonds 87 0.4 N/A
One Love Ankit Love 34 0.2 N/A
Majority 16,537 81.0
Turnout 20,393 25.8

Leave Vote: 59.62%

Sitting MP: Tracey Brabin (Lab)
Prediction: Conservative gain

Held by Labour since 1997 but a Conservative seat between 1983 and 1997 with Elizabeth Peacock. This seat goes Conservative when the Conservatives win big. However, it’s difficult to factor in the effect of the circumstances of the by-election to make a definite prediction.

2. Bradford East

2010 Result:
Conservative: 10860 (26.8%)
Labour: 13272 (32.8%)
Lib Dem: 13637 (33.7%)
BNP: 1854 (4.6%)
Independent: 375 (0.9%)
Others: 459 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 365 (0.9%)

2015 Result:
Labour Imran Hussain 19,312 46.6 +13.8
Liberal Democrat David Ward 12,228 29.5 -4.2
Conservative Iftikhar Ahmed 4,682 11.3 -15.5
UKIP Owais Rajput 4,103 9.9 N/A
Green David Stevens 871 2.1 N/A
British Democratic James Lewthwaite 210 0.5 N/A
Majority 7,084 17.1 +16.2
Turnout 41,406 62.6 +0.5

Leave Vote: 55.62%

Sitting MP: Imran Hussain (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

David Ward has been sacked as LibDem candidate. If he had been standing it might have been possible to argue for a LibDem gain here. Not now, though.

3. Bradford South

2010 Result:
Conservative: 11060 (29.1%)
Labour: 15682 (41.3%)
Lib Dem: 6948 (18.3%)
BNP: 2651 (7%)
UKIP: 1339 (3.5%)
Others: 315 (0.8%)
MAJORITY: 4622 (12.2%)

2015 Result:
Labour Judith Cummins 16,328 43.4 +2.2
Conservative Tanya Graham 9,878 26.3 −2.8
UKIP Jason Smith 9,057 24.1 +20.6
Green Andy Robinson 1,243 3.3 N/A
Liberal Democrat Andrew Tear 1,094 2.9 −15.4
Majority 6,450 17.2
Turnout 37,600 59.1

Leave Vote: 63.56%

Sitting MP: Judith Cummins (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Hard to see anything other than a Labour hold here. The seat has never been anything other than Labour, and yet, and yet… If the UKIP vote collapsed and much of it went to the Tories, you never know. A very outside bet, though.

4. Bradford West

2010 Result:
Conservative: 12638 (31.1%)
Labour: 18401 (45.3%)
Lib Dem: 4732 (11.7%)
BNP: 1370 (3.4%)
Green: 940 (2.3%)
UKIP: 812 (2%)
Respect: 1245 (3.1%)
Others: 438 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 5763 (14.2%)

BY-ELECTION
George Galloway (Respect) 18341 55.9% (52.8%)
Imran Hussain (Labour) 8201 25% (-20.3%)
Jackie Whiteley (Conservative) 2746 8.4% (-22.7%)
Jeanette Sunderland (Liberal Democrat) 1505 4.6% (-7.1%)
Sonja McNally (UKIP) 1085 3.3% (
1.3%)
Dawud Islam (Green) 481 1.5% (-0.8%)
Neil Craig (Democratic Nationalists) 344 1% (-0.1%)
Howling Laud Hope (Loony) 111 0.3% (n/a)
MAJORITY 10140 30.9%
Turnout 50% (-14.9%)

2015 Result:
Naz Shah Labour 19,977 49.6 +24.6
George Galloway Respect 8,557 21.2 -34.7
George Grant Conservative 6,160 15.3 +6.9
Harry Boota UKIP 3,140 7.8 +4.5
Alun Griffiths Liberal Democrat 1,173 2.9 −1.7
Celia Hickson Green 1,085 2.7 +1.2
James Kirkcaldy Independent 100 0.2 N/A
Therese Muchewicz English Democrat 98 0.2 N/A
Majority: 11,420 (28.3%)
Swing: 29.7% from Respect to Lab

Leave Vote: 46.37%

Sitting MP: Naz Shah (Lab)
Prediction: Lab hold

5. Calder Valley

2010 Result:
Conservative: 20397 (39.4%)
Labour: 13966 (27%)
Lib Dem: 13037 (25.2%)
BNP: 1823 (3.5%)
Green: 858 (1.7%)
UKIP: 1173 (2.3%)
English Dem: 157 (0.3%)
Independent: 194 (0.4%)
Others: 175 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 6431 (12.4%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Craig Whittaker 23,354 43.6 +4.2
Labour Josh Fenton-Glynn 18,927 35.4 +8.4
UKIP Paul Rogan 5,950 11.1 +8.8
Liberal Democrat Alisdair McGregor 2,666 5.0 −20.2
Green Jenny Shepherd 2,090 3.9 +2.2
Yorkshire First Rod Sutcliffe 389 0.7 +0.7
World Peace Through Song Joe Stead 165 0.3 +0.3
Majority 4,427 8.3 −4.1
Turnout 53,541 68.9 +1.6

Leave Vote: 51.5%

Sitting MP: Craig Whittaker (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

6. Colne Valley

2010 Result:
Conservative: 20440 (37%)
Labour: 14589 (26.4%)
Lib Dem: 15603 (28.2%)
BNP: 1893 (3.4%)
Green: 867 (1.6%)
UKIP: 1163 (2.1%)
TUSC: 741 (1.3%)
MAJORITY: 4837 (8.7%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Jason McCartney 25,246 44.4 +7.5
Labour Jane East 19,868 35.0 +8.6
UKIP Melanie Roberts 5,734 10.1 +8.0
Liberal Democrat Cahal Burke 3,407 6.0 −22.2
Green Chas Ball 1,919 3.4 +1.8
Yorkshire First Paul Salveson 572 1.0 N/A
Independent Melodie Staniforth 54 0.1 N/A
Majority 5,378 9.5
Turnout 56,800 68.8

Leave Vote: 50.05%

Sitting MP: Jason McCartney (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

7. Dewsbury

2010 Result:
Conservative: 18898 (35%)
Labour: 17372 (32.2%)
Lib Dem: 9150 (16.9%)
BNP: 3265 (6%)
Green: 849 (1.6%)
English Dem: 661 (1.2%)
Independent: 3813 (7.1%)
MAJORITY: 1526 (2.8%)

2015 Result:
Labour Paula Sherriff 22,406 41.8 +9.6
Conservative Simon Reevell 20,955 39.1 +4.1
UKIP Mark Thackray 6,649 12.4 N/A
Liberal Democrat Ednan Hussain 1,924 3.6 −13.4
Green Adrian Cruden 1,366 2.5 +1.0
Yorkshire First Richard Carter 236 0.4 N/A
Christian Peoples Steve Hakes 94 0.2 N/A
Majority 1,451 2.7 N/A
Turnout 53,630 67.2 −1.3

Leave Vote: 57.15%

Sitting MP: Paula Sherriff (Lab)
Prediction: Conservative gain

This seat went Tory in 2010 but flipped back to Labour in 2015. It would be surprising if it didn’t flip back this time.

8. Elmet & Rothwell

2010 Result:
Conservative: 23778 (42.6%)
Labour: 19257 (34.5%)
Lib Dem: 9109 (16.3%)
BNP: 1802 (3.2%)
UKIP: 1593 (2.9%)
Independent: 250 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 4521 (8.1%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Alec Shelbrooke 27,978 48.4 +5.8
Labour Veronica King 19,488 33.7 -0.8
UKIP Paul Spivey 6,430 11.1 +8.3
Liberal Democrat Stewart Golton 2,640 4.6 -11.8
Green Dave Brooks 1,261 2.2 +2.2
Majority 8,490 14.7 +6.6
Turnout 57,797 73.0 +1.2

Leave Vote: 56.79%

Sitting MP: Alec Shelbrooke
Prediction: Conservative hold

9. Halifax

2010 Result:
Conservative: 14806 (34%)
Labour: 16278 (37.4%)
Lib Dem: 8335 (19.1%)
BNP: 2760 (6.3%)
UKIP: 654 (1.5%)
Others: 722 (1.7%)
MAJORITY: 1472 (3.4%)

2015 Result:
Labour Holly Lynch 17,506 40.0 +2.6
Conservative Philip Allott 17,078 39.0 +5.0
UKIP Liz Phillips 5,621 12.8 +11.3
Liberal Democrat Mohammad Ilyas 1,629 3.7 -15.4
Green Gary Scott 1,142 2.6 N/A
Respect Asama Javed 465 1.1 N/A
Christian Trevor Bendrien 312 0.7 N/A
Majority 428 1.0 -2.4
Turnout 43,753 62.1 +0.2

Leave Vote: 60.7%

Sitting MP: Holly Lynch (Lab)
Prediction: Conservative gain

The Tories had high hopes here in the last two elections but they didn’t quite manage it. They will this time.

10. Hemsworth

2010 Result:
Conservative: 10662 (24.3%)
Labour: 20506 (46.8%)
Lib Dem: 5667 (12.9%)
BNP: 3059 (7%)
Independent: 3946 (9%)
MAJORITY: 9844 (22.5%)

2015 Result:
Labour Jon Trickett 21,772 51.3 +4.6
Conservative Christopher Pearson 9,694 22.9 -1.5
UKIP Steve Ashton 8,565 20.2 +20.2
Liberal Democrat Mary MacQueen 1,357 3.2 -9.7
Yorkshire First Martin Roberts 1,018 2.4 +2.4
Majority 12,078 28.5
Turnout 42,406 58.3

Leave Vote: 67.35%

Sitting MP: Jon Trickett (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

11. Huddersfield

2010 Result:
Conservative: 11253 (27.8%)
Labour: 15725 (38.8%)
Lib Dem: 10023 (24.7%)
BNP: 1563 (3.9%)
Green: 1641 (4%)
TUSC: 319 (0.8%)
MAJORITY: 4472 (11%)

2015 Result:
Labour Co-op Barry Sheerman 18,186 44.9 +6.1
Conservative Itrat Ali 10,841 26.8 -1.0
UKIP Rob Butler 5,948 14.7 +14.7
Green Andrew Cooper 2,798 6.9 +2.9
Liberal Democrat Zulfiqar Ali 2,365 5.8 -18.9
TUSC Mike Forster 340 0.8 +0.1
Majority 7,345 18.1
Turnout 40,478 62.0

Leave Vote: 51.85%
Sitting MP: Barry Sheerman (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

If the Tories win a 150 seat landslide this seat may well fall to them, but not otherwise.

12. Keighley

2010 Result:
Conservative: 20003 (41.9%)
Labour: 17063 (35.8%)
Lib Dem: 7059 (14.8%)
BNP: 1962 (4.1%)
UKIP: 1470 (3.1%)
Others: 135 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 2940 (6.2%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Kris Hopkins 21,766 44.3 +2.4
Labour John Grogan 18,713 38.1 +2.3
UKIP Paul Latham 5,662 11.5 +8.4
Green Ros Brown 1,661 3.4 N/A
Liberal Democrat Gareth Epps 1,321 2.7 −12.1
Majority 3,053 6.2
Turnout 49,123 71.3 -1.1

Sitting MP: Kris Hopkins (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

13. Leeds Central

2010 Result:
Conservative: 7541 (20.2%)
Labour: 18434 (49.3%)
Lib Dem: 7789 (20.8%)
BNP: 3066 (8.2%)
Independent: 409 (1.1%)
Others: 155 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 10645 (28.5%)

2015 Result:
Labour Hilary Benn 24,758 55.0 +5.7
Conservative Nicola Wilson 7,791 17.3 -2.9
UKIP Luke Senior 7,082 15.7 N/A
Green Michael Hayton 3,558 7.9 N/A
Liberal Democrat Emma Spriggs 1,529 3.4 -17.4
TUSC Liz Kitching 330 0.7 +0.7
Majority 16,967 37.7
Turnout 45,048 55.1

Leave Vote: 45.96%

Sitting MP: Hilary Benn (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

14. Leeds East

2010 Result:
Conservative: 8763 (23.2%)
Labour: 19056 (50.4%)
Lib Dem: 6618 (17.5%)
BNP: 2947 (7.8%)
Others: 429 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 10293 (27.2%)

2015 Result:
Labour Richard Burgon 20,530 53.7 +3.4
Conservative Ryan Stephenson 7,997 20.9 -2.2
UKIP Mark Maniatt 7,256 19.0 +19.0
Liberal Democrat Ed Sanderson 1,296 3.4 -14.1
Green Kate Bisson 1,117 2.9 +2.9
Majority 12,533 32.8
Turnout 38,196 59.0

Leave Vote: 61.44%

Sitting MP: Richard Burgon (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

15. Leeds North East

2010 Result:
Conservative: 15742 (33.1%)
Labour: 20287 (42.7%)
Lib Dem: 9310 (19.6%)
BNP: 758 (1.6%)
UKIP: 842 (1.8%)
Others: 596 (1.3%)
MAJORITY: 4545 (9.6%)

2015 Result:
Labour Fabian Hamilton 23,137 47.9 +5.2
Conservative Simon Wilson 15,887 32.9 -0.2
UKIP Warren Hendon 3,706 7.7 +5.9
Liberal Democrat Aqila Choudhry 2,569 5.3 -14.3
Green Emma Carter 2,541 5.3 N/A
Alliance for Green Socialism Celia Foote 451 0.9 -0.3
Majority 7,250 15.0 +5.4
Turnout 48,291 69.9 -0.1

Leave Vote: 37.42%

Sitting MP: Fabian Hamilton (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

This was last a Tory seat in 1992. Just can’t see it happening for the Tories here barring an extreme result.

16. Leeds North West

2010 Result:
Conservative: 11550 (26.6%)
Labour: 9132 (21%)
Lib Dem: 20653 (47.5%)
BNP: 766 (1.8%)
Green: 508 (1.2%)
UKIP: 600 (1.4%)
English Dem: 153 (0.4%)
Others: 121 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 9103 (20.9%)

2015 Result:
Liberal Democrat Greg Mulholland 15,948 36.8 -10.7
Labour Alex Sobel 13,041 30.1 +9.1
Conservative Alex Story 8,083 18.6 -7.9
Green Tim Goodall 3,042 7.0 +5.8
UKIP Julian Metcalfe 2,997 6.9 +5.5
Yorkshire First Bob Buxton 143 0.3 N/A
Alliance for Green Socialism Mike Davies 79 0.2 -0.1
Above and Beyond Mark Flanagan 24 0.1 N/A
Majority 2,907 6.7
Turnout 43,357 70.0

Leave Vote: 35.4%

Sitting MP: Greg Mulholland (LibDem)
Prediction: LibDem hold

17. Leeds West

2010 Result:
Conservative: 7641 (19.7%)
Labour: 16389 (42.3%)
Lib Dem: 9373 (24.2%)
BNP: 2377 (6.1%)
Green: 1832 (4.7%)
UKIP: 1140 (2.9%)
MAJORITY: 7016 (18.1%)

2015 Result:
Labour Rachel Reeves 18,456 48.0 +5.7
Conservative Alex Pierre-Traves 7,729 20.1 +0.4
UKIP Anne Murgatroyd 7,104 18.5 +15.5
Green Andrew Pointon 3,217 8.4 +3.6
Liberal Democrat Laura Coyle 1,495 3.9 −20.3
CISTA Matthew West 217 0.6 +0.6
TUSC Ben Mayor 205 0.5 +0.5
Majority 10,727 27.9 +9.8
Turnout 38,423 59.2 +1.7

Leave Vote: 53.27%

Sitting MP: Rachel Reeves
Prediction: Labour hold

18. Morley & Outwood

2010 Result:
Conservative: 17264 (35.3%)
Labour: 18365 (37.6%)
Lib Dem: 8186 (16.8%)
BNP: 3535 (7.2%)
UKIP: 1506 (3.1%)
MAJORITY: 1101 (2.3%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Andrea Jenkyns 18,776 38.9 +3.6
Labour Co-op Ed Balls 18,354 38.0 +0.4
UKIP David Dews 7,951 16.5 +13.4
Liberal Democrat Rebecca Taylor 1,426 3.0 −13.8
Green Martin Hemingway 1,264 2.6 N/A
Yorkshire First Arnie Craven 479 1.0 N/A
Majority 422 0.9 N/A
Turnout 48,250 63.3 -2.5

Leave Vote: 59.82%

Sitting MP: Andrea Jenkyns (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

19. Normanton, Pontefract & Castleford

2010 Result:
Conservative: 11314 (24.5%)
Labour: 22293 (48.2%)
Lib Dem: 7585 (16.4%)
BNP: 3864 (8.4%)
Independent: 1183 (2.6%)
MAJORITY: 10979 (23.7%)

2015 Result:
Labour Yvette Cooper 25,213 54.9 +6.7
UKIP Nathan Garbutt 9,785 21.3 N/A
Conservative Beth Prescott 9,569 20.8 −3.6
Liberal Democrat Edward McMillan-Scott 1,330 2.9 −13.5
Majority 15,428 33.6 +9.9
Turnout 45,897 55.6 -0.6

Leave Vote: 70.34%

Sitting MP: Yvette Cooper (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

20. Pudsey

2010 Result:
Conservative: 18874 (38.5%)
Labour: 17215 (35.1%)
Lib Dem: 10224 (20.8%)
BNP: 1549 (3.2%)
UKIP: 1221 (2.5%)
MAJORITY: 1659 (3.4%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Stuart Andrew 23,637 46.4 +8.0
Labour Jamie Hanley 19,136 37.6 +2.5
UKIP Roger Tattersall 4,689 9.2 +6.7
Liberal Democrat Ryk Downes 1,926 3.8 -17.0
Green Claire Allen 1,539 3.0 +3.0
Majority 4,501 8.8 +5.4
Turnout 50,927 72.2 +1.3

Leave Vote: 48.58%

Sitting MP: Stuart Andrew (Con)
Prediction: Narrow Conservative hold

21. Shipley

2010 Result:
Conservative: 24002 (48.6%)
Labour: 14058 (28.4%)
Lib Dem: 9890 (20%)
Green: 1477 (3%)
MAJORITY: 9944 (20.1%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Philip Davies 25,269 50.0 +1.4
Labour Steve Clapcote 15,645 31.0 +2.5
UKIP Waqas Khan 4,479 8.9 N/A
Green Kevin Warnes 2,657 5.3 +2.3
Liberal Democrat Andrew Martin 1,949 3.9 -16.2
Yorkshire First Darren Hill 543 1.1 N/A
Majority 9,624 19.0
Turnout 50,542 71.7

Leave Vote: 49.71%

Sitting MP: Philip Davies (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

22. Wakefield

2010 Result:
Conservative: 15841 (35.6%)
Labour: 17454 (39.3%)
Lib Dem: 7256 (16.3%)
BNP: 2581 (5.8%)
Green: 873 (2%)
Independent: 439 (1%)
MAJORITY: 1613 (3.6%)

2015 Result:
Labour Mary Creagh 17,301 40.3 +1.0
Conservative Antony Calvert 14,688 34.2 −1.5
UKIP Alan Hazelhurst 7,862 18.3 +18.3
Liberal Democrat Finbarr Cronin 1,483 3.5 −12.9
Green Rebecca Thackray 1,069 2.5 +0.5
TUSC Mick Griffiths 287 0.7 +0.7
CISTA Elliot Barr 283 0.7 +0.7
Majority 2,613 6.1
Turnout 42,973 60.9

Leave Vote: 62.57%

Sitting MP: Mary Creagh (Lab)
Prediction: Conservative gain

I’m afraid Parliament will be saying goodbye to one of its nicest MPs.

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE

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General Election Predictions

General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 21. West Glamorgan

29 Apr 2017 at 14:10

WEST GLAMORGAN

Seats: 5
Current Political Makeup: Con 1, Lab 4
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 1, Lab 4

1. Aberavon

2010 Result:
Conservative: 4411 (14.2%)
Labour: 16073 (51.9%)
Lib Dem: 5034 (16.3%)
Plaid Cymru: 2198 (7.1%)
BNP: 1276 (4.1%)
UKIP: 489 (1.6%)
Independent: 919 (3%)
Others: 558 (1.8%)
MAJORITY: 11039 (35.7%)

2015 Result:
Labour Stephen Kinnock 15,416 48.9 −3.0
UKIP Peter Bush 4,971 15.8 +14.2
Conservative Edward Yi He 3,742 11.9 −2.4
Plaid Cymru Duncan Higgitt 3,663 11.6 +4.5
Liberal Democrats Helen Clarke 1,397 4.4 −11.8
Independent Captain Beany 1,137 3.6 +1.8
Green Jonathan Tier 711 2.3 n/a
Socialist Labour Andrew Jordan 352 1.1 n/a
TUSC Owen Herbert 134 0.4 n/a
Majority 10,445 33.1 −2.6
Turnout 31,523 63.3 +2.3

Sitting MP: Stephen Kinnock (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

2. Gower

2010 Result:
Conservative: 13333 (32%)
Labour: 16016 (38.4%)
Lib Dem: 7947 (19.1%)
Plaid Cymru: 2760 (6.6%)
BNP: 963 (2.3%)
UKIP: 652 (1.6%)
MAJORITY: 2683 (6.4%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Byron Davies 15,862 37.1 +5.1
Labour Liz Evans 15,835 37.0 -1.4
UKIP Colin Beckett 4,773 11.2 +9.6
Plaid Cymru Darren Thomas 3,051 7.1 +0.5
Liberal Democrat Mike Sheehan 1,552 3.6 −15.4
Green Julia Marshall 1,161 2.7 N/A
Monster Raving Loony Baron Barnes Von Claptrap 253 0.6 N/A
Independent Steve Roberts 168 0.4 N/A
TUSC Mark Evans 103 0.2 N/A
Majority 27 0.1
Turnout 42,758 69.2 +1.7

Sitting MP: Byron Davies (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

A surprise Tory gain in 2015 it’s difficult to see Labour winning it back given the current state of the polls in Wales.

3. Neath

2010 Result:
Conservative: 4847 (13.1%)
Labour: 17172 (46.3%)
Lib Dem: 5535 (14.9%)
Plaid Cymru: 7397 (19.9%)
BNP: 1342 (3.6%)
UKIP: 829 (2.2%)
MAJORITY: 9775 (26.3%)

2015 Result:
Labour Christina Rees 16,270 43.8 −2.4
Plaid Cymru Daniel Thomas 6,722 18.1 −1.8
UKIP Richard Pritchard 6,094 16.4 +14.2
Conservative Ed Hastie 5,691 15.3 +2.3
Green Catrin Brock 1,185 3.2 N/A
Liberal Democrat Clare Bentley 1,173 3.2 −11.8
Majority 9,548 25.7 −0.6
Turnout 37,135 66.2 +1.3

Sitting MP: Christina Rees (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

4. Swansea East

2010 Result:
Conservative: 4823 (14.8%)
Labour: 16819 (51.5%)
Lib Dem: 5981 (18.3%)
Plaid Cymru: 2181 (6.7%)
BNP: 1715 (5.2%)
Green: 318 (1%)
UKIP: 839 (2.6%)
MAJORITY: 10838 (33.2%)

2015 Result:
Labour Carolyn Harris 17,807 53.0 +1.5
UKIP Clifford Johnson 5,779 17.2 +14.6
Conservative Altaf Hussain 5,142 15.3 +0.5
Plaid Cymru Dic Jones 3,498 10.4 +3.7
Liberal Democrat Amina Jamal 1,392 4.1 −14.2
Majority 12,028 35.8 +2.6
Turnout 33,618 58.0 +3.4

Sitting MP: Carolyn Harris (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

5. Swansea West

2010 Result:
Conservative: 7407 (20.8%)
Labour: 12335 (34.7%)
Lib Dem: 11831 (33.2%)
Plaid Cymru: 1437 (4%)
BNP: 910 (2.6%)
Green: 404 (1.1%)
UKIP: 716 (2%)
TUSC: 179 (0.5%)
Independent: 374 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 504 (1.4%

2015 Result:
Labour Co-op Geraint Davies 1 14,967 42.6 +7.9
Conservative Emma Lane 7,931 22.6 +1.7
UKIP Martyn Ford 4,744 13.5 +11.5
Liberal Democrat Chris Holley 3,178 9.0 -24.2
Plaid Cymru Harri Roberts 2,266 6.4 +2.4
Green Ashley Wakeling 1,784 5.1 +4.0
TUSC Ronnie Job6 159 0.5 -0.1
Independent Maxwell Rosser 78 0.2 n/a
Socialist (GB) Brian Johnson 7 49 0.1 n/a
Majority 7,036 20.0 +18.6
Turnout 35,156 59.8 +1.8

Sitting MP: Geraint Davies (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

The LibDems came within a whisker of winning this seat in 2010 but it’s now the Conservatives who might well think they might have a chance. A very outside one, though.

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE

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