General Election Predictions

General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 20. London South

28 Apr 2017 at 21:59

LONDON SOUTH

Seats: 9
Current Political Makeup: Con 2, Lab 6, LibDem 1
Predicted Political Makeup after June 8: Con 4, Lab 5

Camberwell & Peckham

2010 Result:
Conservative: 6080 (13%)
Labour: 27619 (59.2%)
Lib Dem: 10432 (22.4%)
Green: 1361 (2.9%)
English Dem: 435 (0.9%)
Independent: 93 (0.2%)
Others: 639 (1.4%)
MAJORITY: 17187 (36.8%)

2015 Result:
Labour Harriet Harman 32,614 63.3 +4.1
Conservative Naomi Newstead 6,790 13.2 +0.1
Green Amelia Womack 5,187 10.1 +7.1
Liberal Democrat Yahaya Kiyingi 2,580 5.0 −17.4
UKIP David Kurten 2,413 4.7 N/A
All People’s Party Prem Goyal 829 1.6 N/A
National Health Action Rebecca Fox 466 0.9 N/A
TUSC Nick Wrack 292 0.6 N/A
CISTA Alex Robertson 197 0.4 N/A
Workers Revolutionary Joshua Ogunleye 107 0.2 -0.3
Whig Felicity Anscomb 86 0.2 N/A
Majority 25,824 50.1 +11.3
Turnout 51,561 62.3 +3.0

Leave Vote: 31.48%

Sitting MP: Harriet Harman (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Carshalton & Wallington

2010 Result:
Conservative: 16920 (36.8%)
Labour: 4015 (8.7%)
Lib Dem: 22180 (48.3%)
BNP: 1100 (2.4%)
Green: 355 (0.8%)
UKIP: 1348 (2.9%)
MAJORITY: 5260 (11.5%)

2015 Result:
Liberal Democrat Tom Brake 16,603 34.9 −13.4
Conservative Matthew Maxwell-Scott 15,093 31.7 −5.1
Labour Siobhan Tate 7,150 15.0 +6.3
UKIP William Main-Ian 7,049 14.8 +11.9
Green Ross Hemingway 1,492 3.2 +2.4
Christian Peoples Ashley Dickenson 177 0.4 +0.4
National Front Richard Edmonds 49 0.1 +0.1
Majority 1,510 3.2 −8.3
Turnout 47,613 68.0 −1.0

Leave Vote: 56.26%

Sitting MP: Tom Brake (LibDem)
Prediction: Conservative gain

Somewhat charismatically challenged, Brake is nevertheless a very good constituency MP and this could seem him through, but there is a big vote for the Conservatives to eat into. Brake’s best hope is that the Greens don’t stand and Labour seeps votes to him.

Croydon Central

2010 Result:
Conservative: 19657 (39.4%)
Labour: 16688 (33.6%)
Lib Dem: 6553 (13.2%)
BNP: 1448 (2.9%)
Green: 581 (1.2%)
UKIP: 997 (2%)
Christian: 264 (0.5%)
Independent: 3239 (6.5%)
Others: 330 (0.7%)
MAJORITY: 2879 (5.8%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Gavin Barwell 22,753 43.0 +3.6
Labour Sarah Jones 22,588 42.7 +9.1
UKIP Peter Staveley 4,810 9.1 +7.1
Green Esther Sutton7 1,454 2.7 +1.6
Liberal Democrat James Fearnley 1,152 2.2 −11.0
TUSC April Ashley 127 0.2 N/A
Progressive Democracy Martin Camden 57 0.1 N/A
Majority 165 0.3 -5.91
Turnout 52,941 67.7 +2.2

Leave Vote: 48.73%

Sitting MP: Gavin Barwell (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Incumbency could be key here. Locally born and an assiduous MP, Barwell will be difficult to shift after 7 years.

Croydon North

2010 Result:
Conservative: 12466 (24.1%)
Labour: 28949 (56%)
Lib Dem: 7226 (14%)
Green: 1017 (2%)
UKIP: 891 (1.7%)
Respect: 272 (0.5%)
Christian: 586 (1.1%)
Independent: 111 (0.2%)
Others: 160 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 16481 (31.9%)

BY-ELECTION 2012
Steve Reed (Labour) 15898 64.7% (8.7%)
Andrew Stranack (Conservative) 4137 16.8% (-7.3%)
Winston McKenzie (UKIP) 1400 5.7% (
4%)
Marisha Ray (Liberal Democrat) 860 3.5% (-10.5%)
Shasha Khan (Green) 855 3.5% (1.5%)
Lee Jasper (Respect) 707 2.9% (
2.4%)
Stephen Hammond (Christian Peoples) 192 0.8% (n/a)
Richard Edmonds (National Front) 161 0.7% (n/a)
Ben Stevenson (Communist) 119 0.5% (+0.2%)
John Cartwright (Loony) 110 0.4% (n/a)
Simon Lane (911 was an inside job) 66 0.3% (n/a)
Robin Smith (Young Peoples) 63 0.3% (n/a)
MAJORITY 11755 47.9%
Turnout 26.5% (-34.1%)

2015 Result:
Labour Co-op Steve Reed 33,513 62.6 +6.6
Conservative Vidhi Mohan 12,149 22.7 -1.4
UKIP Winston McKenzie 2,899 5.4 +3.7
Green Shasha Khan 2,515 4.7 +2.7
Liberal Democrat Joanna Corbin 1,919 3.6 -10.4
TUSC Glen Hart 261 0.5 +0.5
Independent Lee Berks 141 0.3 +0.3
Communist Ben Stevenson 125 0.2 -0.1
Majority 21,364 39.9 -8
Turnout 53,522 62.3 +35.77

Leave Vote: 43.27%

Sitting MP: Steve Reed (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Croydon South

2010 Result:
Conservative: 28684 (50.9%)
Labour: 11287 (20%)
Lib Dem: 12866 (22.8%)
Green: 981 (1.7%)
UKIP: 2504 (4.4%)
MAJORITY: 15818 (28.1%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Chris Philp 31,448 54.5 +3.6
Labour Emily Benn 14,308 24.8 +4.8
UKIP Kathleen Garner 6,068 10.5 +6.1
Liberal Democrat Gill Hickson 3,448 6.0 -16.9
Green Peter Underwood 2,154 3.7 +2.0
Putting Croydon First! Mark Samuel 221 0.4 N/A
Class War Jon Bigger8 65 0.1 N/A
Majority 17,410 29.7 +1.6
Turnout 57,712 70.4 +1.1

Leave Vote: 45.31%

Sitting MP: Chris Philp (Con)
Prediction: Conservatuve hold

Dulwich & West Norwood

2010 Result:
Conservative: 10684 (22.2%)
Labour: 22461 (46.6%)
Lib Dem: 13096 (27.2%)
Green: 1266 (2.6%)
UKIP: 707 (1.5%)
MAJORITY: 9365 (19.4%)

2015 Result:
Labour Helen Hayes 27,772 54.1 +7.5
Conservative Resham Kotecha 11,650 22.7 +0.5
Liberal Democrat James Barber 5,055 9.8 -17.3
Green Rashid Nix 4,844 9.4 +6.8
UKIP Rathy Alagaratnam 1,606 3.1 +1.7
TUSC Steve Nally 248 0.5 N/A
Independent Robin Lambert 125 0.2 N/A
All People’s Party Amadu Kanumansa 62 0.1 N/A
Majority 16,122 31.4 +12.0
Turnout 51,362 67.1 +0.9

Leave Vote: 22.94%

Sitting MP: Helen Hayes (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Streatham

2010 Result:
Conservative: 8578 (18.3%)
Labour: 20037 (42.8%)
Lib Dem: 16778 (35.8%)
Green: 861 (1.8%)
English Dem: 229 (0.5%)
Christian: 237 (0.5%)
Others: 117 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 3259 (7%)

2015 Result:
Labour Chuka Umunna 26,474 53.0 +10.2
Conservative Kim Caddy 12,540 25.1 +6.8
Liberal Democrat Amna Ahmad 4,491 9.0 −26.8
Green Jonathan Bartley 4,421 8.9 +7.1
UKIP Bruce Machan 1,602 3.2 N/A
CISTA Artificial Beast 192 0.4 N/A
TUSC Unjum Mirza 164 0.3 N/A
Workers Revolutionary Deon Gayle 49 0.1 −0.2
Majority 13,934 27.9 +20.9
Turnout 49,933 63.1 +0.3

Leave Vote: 22.16%

Sitting MP: Chuka Umunna (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Tooting

2010 Result:
Conservative: 19514 (38.5%)
Labour: 22038 (43.5%)
Lib Dem: 7509 (14.8%)
Green: 609 (1.2%)
UKIP: 624 (1.2%)
Christian: 171 (0.3%)
Independent: 190 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 2524 (5%)

2015 Result:
Labour Sadiq Khan 25,263 47.2 +3.7
Conservative Dan Watkins 22,421 41.9 +3.4
Green Esther Obiri-Darko 2,201 4.1 +2.9
Liberal Democrat Philip Ling9 2,107 3.9 −10.9
UKIP Przemek Skwirczyński 1,537 2.9 +1.6
Majority 2,842 5.3 +0.3
Turnout 53,529 69.7 +1.1

2016 ByElection Result:
Labour Rosena Allin-Khan 17,894 55.9 +8.7
Conservative Dan Watkins 11,537 36.1 −5.8
Green Esther Obiri-Darko 830 2.6 −1.5
Liberal Democrat Alex Glassbrook 820 2.6 −1.3
UKIP Elizabeth Jones 507 1.6 −1.3
Christian Peoples Des Coke 164 0.5 +0.5
Monster Raving Loony Howling Laud Hope 54 0.2 +0.2
Independent Zirwa Javaid 30 0.1 +0.1
One Love Ankit Love 32 0.1 +0.1
Immigrants Political Party Akbar Ali Malik 44 0.1 +0.1
English Democrat Graham Moore 50 0.2 +0.2
Independent Zia Samadani 23 0.1 +0.1
Independent Smiley Smillie 5 0.0 +0.0
Give Me Back Elmo Bobby Smith 9 0.0 +0.0
Majority 6,357 19.9 +14.6
Turnout 31,763 42.5 −27.2

Leave Vote: 25.58%

Sitting MP: Rosena Allin-Khan (Lab)
Prediction: Conservative gain

This is one of those seats which the Conservatives have coveted for the last two elections. This time they may well get it.

Vauxhall

2010 Result:
Conservative: 9301 (21.5%)
Labour: 21498 (49.8%)
Lib Dem: 10847 (25.1%)
Green: 708 (1.6%)
English Dem: 289 (0.7%)
Christian: 200 (0.5%)
Others: 348 (0.8%)
MAJORITY: 10651 (24.7%)

2015 Result:
Labour Kate Hoey 25,778 53.8 +4.0
Conservative James Bellis 13,070 27.3 +5.7
Green Gulnar Hasnain 3,658 7.6 +6.0
Liberal Democrat Adrian Hyyrylainen-Trett 3,312 6.9 -18.2
UKIP Ace Nnorom 1,385 2.9 N/A
Pirate Mark Chapman 201 0.4 N/A
Left Unity Simon Hardy 188 0.4 N/A
CISTA Louis Jensen 164 0.3 N/A
Whig Waleed Ghani 103 0.2 N/A
Socialist (GB) Daniel Lambert 82 0.2 -0.2
Majority 12,708 26.5 +1.8
Turnout 47,941 58.3 +0.6

Leave Vote: 18.47%

Sitting MP: Kate Hoey (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE

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General Election Predictions

General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 19. Birmingham

28 Apr 2017 at 20:24

Birmingham

Seats: 9
Current Political Makeup: Lab 8
Predicted Political Makeup after June 8: Con 3, Lab 5

1. Birmingham Edgbaston

2010 Result:
Conservative: 15620 (37.6%)
Labour: 16894 (40.6%)
Lib Dem: 6387 (15.4%)
BNP: 1196 (2.9%)
Green: 469 (1.1%)
UKIP: 732 (1.8%)
Christian: 127 (0.3%)
Others: 146 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 1274 (3.1%)

2015 Result:
Labour Gisela Stuart 18,518 44.85 +4.21
Conservative Luke Evans12 15,812 38.29 +0.72
UKIP Graham Short13 4,154 10.06 +8.30
Green Philip Simpson 1,371 3.32 +2.19
Liberal Democrat Lee Dargue12 1,184 2.87 −12.49
Christian Gabriel Ukandu 163 0.39 +0.08
Independent Henna Rai 91 0.22 N/A
Majority 2,706 6.55 +3.49
Turnout 41,293 62.96 +2.34

Leave Vote: 43.75%

Sitting MP: Gisela Stuart (Lab)
Prediction: Conservative gain

The Tories have had their eye on this seat ever since 1997 but Gisela Stuart proved very difficult to shift. She’s standing down so I’d say this was a very likely Tory gain.

2. Birmingham Erdington

2010 Result:
Conservative: 11592 (32.6%)
Labour: 14869 (41.8%)
Lib Dem: 5742 (16.2%)
BNP: 1815 (5.1%)
UKIP: 842 (2.4%)
Christian: 217 (0.6%)
Independent: 240 (0.7%)
Others: 229 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 3277 (9.2%)

2015 Result:
Labour Jack Dromey 15,824 45.6 Increase 3.8
Conservative Robert Alden 10,695 30.8 Decrease 1.8
UKIP Andrew Garcarz 6,040 17.4 Increase 15.0
Liberal Democrat Ann Holtom 965 2.8 Decrease 13.4
Green Joe Belcher 948 2.7 N/A
TUSC Ted Woodley 212 0.6 N/A
Majority 5,129 14.8 Increase 5.6
Turnout 34,684 53.3 Decrease 0.2

Leave Vote: 58.48%

Sitting MP: Jack Dromey (Lab)
Prediction: Conservative gain

I think Jack Dromey is in real trouble here. A big leave vote, combined with nearly 7,000 UKIP votes up for grabs and the Tories must be hoping they can pull this one off.

3. Birmingham Hall Green

2010 Result:
Conservative: 7320 (15%)
Labour: 16039 (32.9%)
Lib Dem: 11988 (24.6%)
UKIP: 950 (1.9%)
Respect: 12240 (25.1%)
Independent: 190 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 3799 (7.8%)

2015 Result:
Labour Roger Godsiff 28,147 59.8 +24.9
Conservative James Bird 8,329 17.7 +2.7
Liberal Democrat Jerry Evans 5,459 11.6 —13.0
Green Elly Stanton 2,200 4.7 N/A
UKIP Rashpal Mondair 2,131 4.5 +2.6
Respect Shiraz Peer 780 1.7 —23.5
Majority 19,818 42.1 Increase 34.3
Turnout 47,046 61.6 Decrease 2.0

Leave Vote: 42.17%

Sitting MP: Rodger Godsiff (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

4. Birmingham Hodge Hill

2010 Result:
Conservative: 4936 (11.6%)
Labour: 22077 (52%)
Lib Dem: 11775 (27.7%)
BNP: 2333 (5.5%)
UKIP: 714 (1.7%)
Others: 637 (1.5%)
MAJORITY: 10302 (24.3%)

2015 Result:
Labour Liam Byrne 28,069 68.4 Increase 16.4
Conservative Kieran Mullan 4,707 11.5 Decrease 0.2
UKIP Albert Duffen 4,651 11.3 Increase 9.7
Liberal Democrat Phil Bennion 2,624 6.4 Decrease 21.3
Green Chris Nash 835 2.0 N/A
Communist Andy Chaffer 153 0.4 Increase 0.4
Majority 23,362 56.9 Increase 32.6
Turnout 41,039 54.5 Decrease 1.1

Leave Vote: 50.41%

Sitting MP: Liam Byrne (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

5. Birmingham Ladywood

2010 Result:
Conservative: 4277 (11.9%)
Labour: 19950 (55.7%)
Lib Dem: 9845 (27.5%)
Green: 859 (2.4%)
UKIP: 902 (2.5%)
MAJORITY: 10105 (28.2%)

2015 Result:
Labour Shabana Mahmood 26,444 73.6 Increase 18.0
Conservative Isabel Sigmac 4,576 12.7 Increase 0.8
UKIP Clair Braund 1,805 5.0 Increase 2.5
Green Margaret Okole 1,501 4.2 Increase 1.8
Liberal Democrat Shazad Iqbal 1,374 3.8 Decrease 23.6
Liberty GB Tim Burton 216 0.6 N/A
Majority 21,868 60.9 Increase 32.7
Turnout 35,916 52.7 Increase 4

Sitting MP: Shabana Mahmood (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

6. Birmingham Northfield

2010 Result:
Conservative: 14059 (33.6%)
Labour: 16841 (40.3%)
Lib Dem: 6550 (15.7%)
BNP: 2290 (5.5%)
Green: 406 (1%)
UKIP: 1363 (3.3%)
Others: 305 (0.7%)
MAJORITY: 2782 (6.7%)

2015 Result:
Labour Richard Burden 17,673 41.6 Increase 1.3
Conservative Rachel Maclean 15,164 35.7 Increase 2.1
UKIP Keith Rowe 7,106 16.7 Increase 13.5
Liberal Democrat Steve Haynes 1,349 3.2 Decrease 12.5
Green Anna Masters10 1,169 2.8 Increase 1.8
Majority 2,509 5.9
Turnout 42,461 59.4 Increase 0.8

Sitting MP: Richard Burden (Lab)
Prediction: Conservative gain

This used to be a Conservative seat and it’s about to be again.

7. Birmingham Perry Bar

2010 Result:
Conservative: 8960 (21.3%)
Labour: 21142 (50.3%)
Lib Dem: 9234 (22%)
UKIP: 1675 (4%)
Christian: 507 (1.2%)
Others: 527 (1.3%)
MAJORITY: 11908 (28.3%)

Leave Vote: 59.40%

2015 Result:
Labour Khalid Mahmood 23,697 57.4 Increase 7.1
Conservative Charlotte Hodivala 8,869 21.5 Increase 0.2
UKIP Harjinder Singh 5,032 12.2 Increase 8.2
Liberal Democrat Arjun Singh 2,001 4.8 Decrease 17.1
Green James Lovatt 1,330 3.2 N/A
TUSC Robert Punton 331 0.8 N/A
Majority 14,828 35.9
Turnout 41,260 59.0

Leave Vote: 54.14%

Sitting MP: Khalid Mahmood (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

8. Birmingham Selly Oak

2010 Result:
Conservative: 14468 (31.1%)
Labour: 17950 (38.5%)
Lib Dem: 10371 (22.3%)
BNP: 1820 (3.9%)
Green: 664 (1.4%)
UKIP: 1131 (2.4%)
Christian: 159 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 3482 (7.5%)

2015 Result:
Labour Steve McCabe 21,584 47.7 Increase 9.1
Conservative Alex Boulter7 13,137 29.0 Decrease 2.1
UKIP Steven Brookes 5,755 12.7 Increase 10.3
Liberal Democrat Colin Green8 2,517 5.6 Decrease 16.7
Green Clare Thomas 2,301 5.1 Increase 3.7
Majority 8,447 18.6
Turnout 45,294 60.3

Leave Vote: 45.74%

Sitting MP: Stephen McCabe (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

9. Birmingham Yardley

2010 Result:
Conservative: 7836 (19.2%)
Labour: 13160 (32.2%)
Lib Dem: 16162 (39.6%)
BNP: 2153 (5.3%)
UKIP: 1190 (2.9%)
Others: 349 (0.9%)
MAJORITY: 3002 (7.3%)

2015 Result:
Labour Jess Phillips 17,129 41.5 Increase 9.4
Liberal Democrat John Hemming 10,534 25.6 Decrease 14.0
UKIP Paul Clayton 6,637 16.1 Increase 13.2
Conservative Arun Photay 5,760 14.0 Decrease 5.2
Green Grant Bishop 698 1.7 Increase 1.7
Respect Teval Stephens 187 0.5 N/A
TUSC Eamonn Flynn 135 0.3 N/A
Social Democratic Peter Johnson 71 0.2 N/A
Majority 6,595 16.0
Turnout 41,313 57.3 Increase 0.7

Leave Vote: 60.61%

Sitting MP: Jess Phillips (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

John Hemming is restanding and his result was certainly better than his LibDem colleagues. But given this is a Leave seat, I can’t see him rising from the ashes,

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE

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Diary

ConHome Diary: Is Boris Really Being Hidden Away From the Electorate & Has Labour Bottomed Out?

28 Apr 2017 at 15:03

The very idea that Theresa May will seek to hide Boris Johnson away during the election is preposterous. I yield to no one in my admiration of the election coverage from The Times. It’s the one newspaper I buy every day. However, this week the paper seems to have developed somewhat of a schizophrenia about Boris Johnson. On Wednesday the Red Box’s Matt Chorley reported breathlessly: “The Times reveals today that Theresa May is being urged by senior ministers to keep Johnson out of the spotlight, suggesting that he be kept busy with “lots of important meetings in various foreign capitals” instead. One minister, fearing that his Vote Leave role is a liability, asks witheringly: “What are we going to put on the side of his bus?” A mere day later their political editor Francis Elliott wrote an article headlines “BORIS TO BE TV POSTER BOY”. Boris seems to have some very powerful enemies in the Cabinet, who think nothing of spilling their thoughts to political journalists. It has to be said that we’ve seen less of this during Theresa May’s premiership than under David Cameron, but of course during an election any journalist will jump on any bitchfighting because they have acres of newsprint to fill.
It surely wouldn’t make any sense to keep Boris under lock and key, just because at one point in the campaign he’s bound to drop a bollock. You don’t keep your star player off the pitch.
And let’s just remember who is in charge of the Conservative campaign. One Sir Lynton Keith Crosby. Let us not forget that Lynton was the man behind Boris’s two mayoral election wins. He knows what Boris’s strengths and weaknesses are and is a huge fan of the Foreign Secretary. He will deploy Boris at times when letting Boris be Boris can be a huge advantage to the campaign. Just as it should be.
*
Last week I wrote some words in this column which I might have had reason to regret. Here’s a quick reminder: “If I’m honest, this is the first time for many years where I’ve thought I’d like to be a candidate again. Who wouldn’t want to be in Parliament over the next five years? But it was a fleeting thought and I dismissed it almost as soon as I had had it. At the age of 54 my time in politics has been and gone, and why would I give up the best job I have ever had?” At 2pm on Tuesday I saw that Sir Alan Haselhurst had announced he was standing down as MP for Saffron Walden. This is where I grew up and my parents lived all their lives. My Dad died a few months ago and I’ve been thinking about moving back to live on the family farm. For 24 hours my mind was a turmoil. But in the end, it wasn’t to be. I’m normally very decisive about making decisions like this, but I kept swinging from one extreme to the other. But the stars weren’t aligning. The negatives outweighed the positives. It would have been very difficult to force my way onto the shortlist but in addition I kept coming back to what I wrote last week: “Why would I give up the best job I have ever had?” Decision made, and absolutely no regrets. Whoever gets the seat will be very lucky indeed.
*

It seems an odd thing to write, but being 20 points ahead in the polls can be a dangerous place to be. There’s only one way to do, and that’s down. In the end there is only so far Labour can go down in the polls and I reckon we’ve reached that point now. Each of the two main parties has a core vote of 24-26% of the electorate. The Conservative campaign reeks of ‘safety first’ and that’s quite understandable, if rather boring for those of us who have to cover the campaign. OK, political campaigns are aimed at voters and not the media, but I do worry that turnout at this election may be very depressed if the campaign goes on as it is. There are going to be no head to head debates and people are already tiring of Conservative sloganizing. On my radio show this week Maria Caulfield, the Lewes MP, trotted out the usual ‘coalition of chaos’ and ‘strong and stable government’ to such an extent that I had to interrupt her and suggest we start a drinking game whenever these phrases are used. It’s boring. It insults the intelligence of the electorate and does a disservice to our democracy.
*
I’ve now predicted the results of 107 seats in my Seat by Seat general election prediction series. As I go through the different geographical areas it’s amazing how many Labour seats could be in play. Even Tony Blair’s seat of Sedgfield could fall to the Conservatives if the stars align. If you’d like to follow my predictions as I add to them every day click on this link [ add link http://iaindale.com/posts/2017/04/19/general-election-2017-seat-by-seat-predictions-predictions-so-far ]
*

Candidate selections are a complete lottery. You can give the greatest speech of your life, but if your face doesn’t fit, you’re toast. I was told about one recent selection where two of the candidates gave out of their skin performances and yet the candidate who was weak and hapless won on the first ballot. Don’t you just love the unpredictability of Conservative Associations?
*
Next week’s local elections are going to be a challenge for Jeremy Corbyn. He’s likely to lose dozens of county council seats in England and have a lot of explaining to do in Scotland, where Labour is polling at 14%. Quite what will happen in Wales in anyone’s guess. I guess it’s he will have to adopt the mantra of Keep Calm & Carry On. I’ll be hosting a special LBC local elections show with Shelagh Fogarty and Gareth Knight, our resident psephologist, from 10pm-1am. If you’re at a County Council count please do tweet me any developments @iaindale.
*

If there is indeed a Tory landslide, something which I think is at this stage far from guaranteed, expect Jeremy Corbyn to hark back to 1987 and argue that he should be allowed to stay on as Labour leader just like Neil Kinnock did. He and his allies are desperate to stay in position until the Labour conference, as that is when they will try to push through rules changes for electing a new Labour leader. At the moment, to stand an MP has to get 15% of the parliamentary party to sign their nomination paper. The left want to reduce that to 5%, so whenever Jeremy Corbyn does decide to go, a representative of the hard left would automatically get on the ballot paper, and, given the hard left makeup of Labour’s current membership, would more than likely win. John McDonnell has said he wouldn’t ever run, so could it be Diane Abbott who rushes forward to take over the mantle? Or will it be one of the young turks who Corbyn has promoted to his shadow cabinet? All this just goes to show that even once the election is over, politics is unlikely to get any quieter over the summer months.

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General Election Predictions

General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 18. West Midlands

27 Apr 2017 at 23:30

WEST MIDLANDS

Seats 19
Current Political Makeup: Con 7, Lab 12
Predicted Political Makeup after June 8: Con 14, Lab 5
Revised: Con 13, Lab 6

1. Aldridge & Brownhills

2010 Result:
Conservative: 22913 (59.3%)
Labour: 7647 (19.8%)
Lib Dem: 6833 (17.7%)
Green: 847 (2.2%)
Christian: 394 (1%)
MAJORITY: 15266 (39.5%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Wendy Morton 20,558 52.0 −7.3
Labour John Fisher 8,835 22.4 +2.6
UKIP Anthony Thompson 7,751 19.6 +19.6
Liberal Democrat Ian Garrett 1,330 3.4 −14.3
Green Martyn Curzey 826 2.1 −0.1
Monster Raving Loony Mark Beech 197 0.5 +0.5
Majority 11,723 29.7 -9.8
Turnout 39,497 65.8 +0.7

Leave Vote: 66.34

Sitting MP: Wendy Morton (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

11. Coventry North East

2010 Result:
Conservative: 9609 (22.1%)
Labour: 21384 (49.3%)
Lib Dem: 7210 (16.6%)
BNP: 1863 (4.3%)
UKIP: 1291 (3%)
Others: 2026 (4.7%)
MAJORITY: 11775 (27.1%)

2015 Result:
Labour Colleen Fletcher 6 22,025 52.2 Increase 2.9
Conservative Michelle Lowe 9,751 23.1 Increase 0.9
UKIP Avtar Taggar 6,278 14.9 Increase 11.9
Liberal Democrat Russell Field 7 2,007 4.8 Decrease 11.9
Green Matthew Handley8 1,245 2.9 Increase 2.9
TUSC Nicky Downes 633 1.5 Increase 1.5
Christian Movement for Great Britain William Sidhu 292 0.7 Decrease 0.3
Majority 12,274 29.1 Increase 2
Turnout 42,231 55.3 Decrease 4.1

Leave Vote: 59.59%

Sitting MP: Colleen Fletcher (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

12. Coventry North West

2010 Result:
Conservative: 13648 (29.3%)
Labour: 19936 (42.8%)
Lib Dem: 8344 (17.9%)
BNP: 1666 (3.6%)
Green: 497 (1.1%)
UKIP: 1295 (2.8%)
Independent: 640 (1.4%)
Others: 534 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 6288 (13.5%)

2015 Result:
Labour Geoffrey Robinson 18,557 41.0 Decrease 1.8
Conservative Parvez Akhtar 14,048 31.0 Increase 1.7
UKIP Harjinder Sehmi 7,101 15.7 Increase 12.9
Green Laura Vesty6 1,961 4.3 Increase 3.3
Liberal Democrat Andrew Furse 1,810 4.0 Decrease 13.9
TUSC Dave Nellist 1,769 3.9 N/A
Majority 4,509 10.0 Decrease 3.5
Turnout 45,246 60.7 Increase 2.9

Leave Vote: 59.02%

Sitting MP: Geoffrey Robinson (Lab)
Prediction: Conservative gain

Bizarrely, Geoffrey Robinson’s best hope is to get the backing of Dave Nellist, because at the moment the Conservatives may well win here by hoovering up UKIP votes.

13. Coventry South

2010 Result:
Conservative: 15352 (33.4%)
Labour: 19197 (41.8%)
Lib Dem: 8278 (18%)
Green: 639 (1.4%)
UKIP: 1767 (3.8%)
Others: 691 (1.5%)
MAJORITY: 3845 (8.4%)

2015 Result:
Labour Jim Cunningham 18,472 42.3 Increase 0.5
Conservative Gary Ridley 15,284 35.0 Increase 1.5
UKIP Mark Taylor6 5,709 13.1 Increase 9.2
Liberal Democrat Greg Judge 1,779 4.1 Decrease 14.0
Green Benjamin Gallaher9 1,719 3.9 Increase 2.5
TUSC Judy Griffiths 650 1.5 N/A
Mainstream Christopher Rooney 86 0.2 N/A
Majority 3,188 7.3 Decrease 1.1
Turnout 43,699 61.2 Decrease 1.2

Leave Vote: 50.12%

Sitting MP: Jim Cunningham (Lab)
Prediction: Conservative gain

The Tories will certainly be targeting this seat heavily. Again, if the UKIP vote drifts to them they will win here, and maybe by a comfortable margin.

14. Dudley North

2010 Result:
Conservative: 14274 (37%)
Labour: 14923 (38.7%)
Lib Dem: 4066 (10.5%)
BNP: 1899 (4.9%)
UKIP: 3267 (8.5%)
Others: 173 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 649 (1.7%)

2015 Result:
Labour Ian Austin 15,885 41.8 +3.2
Conservative Les Jones4 11,704 30.8 -6.2
UKIP Bill Etheridge5 9,113 24.0 +15.5
Green Will Duckworth6 517 1.4 +1.4
Liberal Democrat Mike Collins7 478 1.3 -9.3
Apni Rehan Afzal 156 0.4 +0.4
TUSC David Pitt8 139 0.4 +0.4
Majority 4,181 11.0 +9.3
Turnout 37,992 62.6 -0.9

Leave Vote: 67.88%

Sitting MP: Ian Austin (Lab)
Prediction: Conservative gain

Ian Austin managed to hold off a strong UKIP and Tory challenge last time, and because of the split opposition he managed to increase his majority. UKIP are incredibly string here and I tipped them to take the seat last time, but Ian Austin proved me wrong. I fear this time I am going to be right and that the Tories will oust him.

15. Dudley South

2010 Result:
Conservative: 16450 (43.1%)
Labour: 12594 (33%)
Lib Dem: 5989 (15.7%)
UKIP: 3132 (8.2%)
MAJORITY: 3856 (10.1%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Mike Wood4 16,723 43.8 +0.7
Labour Natasha Millward 12,453 32.6 -0.4
UKIP Paul Brothwood5 7,236 18.9 +10.7
Green Vicky Duckworth 970 2.5 +2.5
Liberal Democrat Martin Turner 828 2.2 -13.5
Majority 4,270 11.2 +1.1
Turnout 38,210 63.3 +0.3

Leave Vote: 68.11%

Sitting MP: Mike Wood (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

16. Halesowen & Rowley Regis

2010 Result:
Conservative: 18115 (41.2%)
Labour: 16092 (36.6%)
Lib Dem: 6515 (14.8%)
UKIP: 2824 (6.4%)
Independent: 433 (1%)
MAJORITY: 2023 (4.6%)

2015 Result:
Conservative James Morris 18,933 43.2 +2.0
Labour Stephanie Peacock 15,851 36.2 -0.4
UKIP Dean Perks 7,280 16.6 +10.2
Liberal Democrat Peter Tyzack 905 2.1 -12.7
Green John Payne6 849 1.9 +1.9
Majority 3,082 7.0 2.4
Turnout 43,818 59.1 -9.9

Vote Leave: 65.82%

Sitting MP: James Morris (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

17. Meriden

2010 Result:
Conservative: 26956 (51.7%)
Labour: 10703 (20.5%)
Lib Dem: 9278 (17.8%)
BNP: 2511 (4.8%)
Green: 678 (1.3%)
UKIP: 1378 (2.6%)
Others: 658 (1.3%)
MAJORITY: 16253 (31.2%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Caroline Spelman 28,791 54.7 +3.1
Labour Tom McNeil10 9,996 19.0 -1.5
UKIP Mick Gee 8,908 16.9 +14.3
Liberal Democrat Ade Adeyemo 2,638 5.0 -12.8
Green Alison Gavin11 2,170 4.1 +2.8
Independence from Europe Chris Booth 100 0.2 +0.2
Majority 18,795 35.7 +4.5
Turnout 52,603 64.9 +1.6

Vote Leave: 59.15%

Sitting MP: Caroline Spelman (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

18. Solihull

2010 Result:
Conservative: 23460 (42.6%)
Labour: 4891 (8.9%)
Lib Dem: 23635 (42.9%)
BNP: 1624 (2.9%)
UKIP: 1200 (2.2%)
Others: 319 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 175 (0.3%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Julian Knight 26,956 49.2 Increase 6.6
Liberal Democrat Lorely Burt 14,054 25.7 Decrease 17.2
UKIP Phil Henrick6 6,361 11.6 Increase 9.4
Labour Nigel Knowles 5,693 10.4 Increase 1.5
Green Howard Allen 1,632 3.0 N/A
An Independence from Europe Mike Nattrass 50 0.1 N/A
Democratic Matthew J. Ward 33 0.1 N/A
Majority 12,902 23.6
Turnout 54,779 70.9 Decrease 1.36

Sitting MP: Julian Knight (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

19. Stourbridge

2010 Result:
Conservative: 20153 (42.7%)
Labour: 14989 (31.7%)
Lib Dem: 7733 (16.4%)
BNP: 1696 (3.6%)
Green: 394 (0.8%)
UKIP: 2103 (4.5%)
Independent: 166 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 5164 (10.9%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Margot James 21,195 46.0 Increase 3.4
Labour Pete Lowe 14,501 31.5 Decrease 0.2
UKIP James Carver 7,774 16.9 Increase 12.4
Liberal Democrat Chris Bramall 1,538 3.3 Decrease 13.0
Green Christian Kiever 1,021 2.2 Increase 1.4
Majority 6,694 14.5

Vote Leave: 62.98%

Sitting MP: Margot James (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

20. Sutton Coldfield

2010 Result:
Conservative: 27303 (54%)
Labour: 10298 (20.4%)
Lib Dem: 9117 (18%)
BNP: 1749 (3.5%)
Green: 535 (1.1%)
UKIP: 1587 (3.1%)
MAJORITY: 17005 (33.6%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Andrew Mitchell 27,782 54.6 Increase 0.7
Labour Robert Pocock 11,365 22.3 Increase 1.9
UKIP Marcus Brown10 7,489 14.7 Increase 11.6
Liberal Democrat Richard Brighton-Knight 2,627 5.2 Decrease 12.9
Green David Ratcliff 1,426 2.8 Increase 1.7
Ubuntu Mark Sleigh 165 0.3 N/A
Majority 16,417 32.3 Decrease 1.3
Turnout 50,854 67.85 Decrease 0.5

Vote Leave: 50.31

Sitting MP: Andrew Mitchell (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

21. Walsall North

2010 Result:
Conservative: 12395 (34.3%)
Labour: 13385 (37%)
Lib Dem: 4754 (13.1%)
BNP: 2930 (8.1%)
UKIP: 1737 (4.8%)
Christian: 144 (0.4%)
Others: 842 (2.3%)
MAJORITY: 990 (2.7%)

2015 Result:
Labour David Winnick 14,392 39.0 +2.0
Conservative Douglas Hansen-Luke9 12,455 33.8 −0.5
UKIP Elizabeth Hazell10 8,122 22.0 +17.2
Liberal Democrat Nigel Jones 840 2.3 −10.8
TUSC Peter Smith 545 1.5 −0.8
Green Mike Harrison11 529 1.4 N/A
Majority 1,937 5.2 +2.5
Turnout 36,883 55.0 −0.5

Leave Vote: 70.12%

Sitting MP: David Winnick (Lab)
Prediction: Conservative gain

David Winnick is toast. He nearly lost last time. His only chance of survival is if UKIP’s vote remains largely intact, but it’s unlikely to.

22. Walsall South

2010 Result:
Conservative: 14456 (35.4%)
Labour: 16211 (39.7%)
Lib Dem: 5880 (14.4%)
UKIP: 3449 (8.4%)
Christian: 482 (1.2%)
Others: 404 (1%)
MAJORITY: 1755 (4.3%)

2015 Result:
Labour Valerie Vaz 19,740 47.2 +7.5
Conservative Sue Arnold5 13,733 32.8 -2.5
UKIP Derek Bennett6 6,540 15.6 +7.2
Green Charlotte Fletcher7 1,149 2.7 +2.7
Liberal Democrat Joel Kenrick8 676 1.6 -12.8
Majority 6,007 14.4 +10.1
Turnout 41,838 61.8 -1.3

Vote Leave: 61.44%

Sitting MP: Valerie Vaz (Lab)
Prediction: Conservative gain
Revised: Lab hold

A safer prospect for Labour than the other Walsall seat, but nevertheless this is firmly in the Conservatives’ sights. Again it will be the UKIP vote which determines who wins.

23. Warley

2010 Result:
Conservative: 9484 (24.8%)
Labour: 20240 (52.9%)
Lib Dem: 5929 (15.5%)
UKIP: 2617 (6.8%)
MAJORITY: 10756 (28.1%

2015 Result:
Labour John Spellar 22,012 58.2 Increase 5.3
Conservative Tom Williams 7,310 19.3 Decrease 5.5
UKIP Pete Durnell 6,237 16.5 Increase 9.6
Green Robert Buckman 1,465 3.9 Increase 3.9
Liberal Democrat Catherine Smith 805 2.1 Decrease 13.4
Majority 14,702 38.9
Turnout 37,829 59.3

Vote Leave: 60.93%

Sitting MP: John Spellar (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

24. West Bromwich East

2010 Result:
Conservative: 10961 (28.9%)
Labour: 17657 (46.5%)
Lib Dem: 4993 (13.2%)
BNP: 2205 (5.8%)
UKIP: 984 (2.6%)
English Dem: 1150 (3%)
MAJORITY: 6696 (17.6%)

Leave Vote: 66.99%

Sitting MP: Tom Watson (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

25. West Bromwich West

2010 Result:
Conservative: 10612 (29.3%)
Labour: 16263 (45%)
Lib Dem: 4336 (12%)
BNP: 3394 (9.4%)
UKIP: 1566 (4.3%)
MAJORITY: 5651 (15.6%)

2015 Result:
Labour Co-op Adrian Bailey 16,578 47.3 +2.4
UKIP Graham Eardley 8,836 25.2 +20.9
Conservative Paul Ratner 8,365 23.9 -5.5
Green Mark Redding 697 2.0 +2.0
Liberal Democrat Karen Trench 550 1.6 -10.4
Majority 7,742 22.1

Vote Leave: 68.55%

Sitting MP: Adrian Bailey (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

26. Wolverhampton North East

2010 Result:
Conservative: 11964 (34.3%)
Labour: 14448 (41.4%)
Lib Dem: 4711 (13.5%)
BNP: 2296 (6.6%)
UKIP: 1138 (3.3%)
Others: 337 (1%)
MAJORITY: 2484 (7.1%)

2015 Result:
Labour Emma Reynolds 15,669 46.1 +4.7
Conservative Darren Henry 10,174 29.9 -4.4
UKIP Star Etheridge 6,524 19.2 +15.9
Liberal Democrat Ian Jenkins 935 2.7 -10.8
Green Becky Cooper 701 2.1 +2.1
Majority 5,495 16.2
Turnout 55.7

Leave Vote: 65.01%

Sitting MP: Emma Reynolds (Lab)
Prediction: Conservative gain

Used to be a Tory seat and if there’s a big Tory majority it could be again.

27. Wolverhampton South East

2010 Result:
Conservative: 9912 (28.6%)
Labour: 16505 (47.6%)
Lib Dem: 5277 (15.2%)
UKIP: 2675 (7.7%)
Independent: 338 (1%)
MAJORITY: 6593 (19%)

2015 Result:
Labour Pat McFadden 18,531 53.3 Increase 5.8
Conservative Suria Photay 7,764 22.3 Decrease 6.2
UKIP Barry Hodgson 7,061 20.3 Increase 12.6
Liberal Democrat Ian Griffiths 798 2.3 Decrease 12.9
Green Geeta Kauldhar4 605 1.7 Increase 1.7
Majority 10,767 31.0 Increase 12.1
Turnout 55.6 Decrease 1.7

Sitting MP: Pat McFadden (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

28. Wolverhampton South West

2010 Result:
Conservative: 16344 (40.7%)
Labour: 15653 (39%)
Lib Dem: 6430 (16%)
UKIP: 1487 (3.7%)
Others: 246 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 691 (1.7%)

2015 Result:
Labour Rob Marris 17,374 43.2 Increase 4.2
Conservative Paul Uppal 16,573 41.2 Increase 0.5
UKIP Dave Everett 4,310 10.7 Increase 7.0
Green Andrea Cantrill 1,058 2.6 Increase 2.6
Liberal Democrat Neale Upstone 845 2.1 Decrease 13.9
Independent Brian Booth 49 0.1 Increase 0.1
Majority 801 2.0
Turnout 40,209 66.6

Sitting MP: Rob Marris (Lab)
Prediction: Conservative gain

This seat flips between the two parties and was one of the few Labour gains at the last election. It’s almost certainly going to go back to the Tories on June 8TH.

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE

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General Election Predictions

General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 17. Northern Ireland

27 Apr 2017 at 20:48

NORTHERN IRELAND

Seats: 18
Current Political Makeup: DUP 8, Sinn Fein 4, UUP 2, SDLP 3, Independent 1
Predicted Political Makeup after June 8: DUP 8, Sinn Fein 5, UUP 1, SDLP 3, Independent 1

1. Belfast East

Naomi Long (Alliance) 12,839 (37.2%, +26.1%)
Peter Robinson (DUP) 11,306 (32.8%, -19.6%)
Trevor Ringland (UCUNF) 7,305 (21.2%, -9.7%)
David Vance (TUV) 1,856 (5.4%)
Niall Ó Donnghaile (Sinn Féin) 817 (2.4%, ±0)
Mary Muldoon (SDLP) 365 (1.1%, -1.0%)
Majority: 1,533

2015 Result:
DUP Gavin Robinson5 19,575 49.3 +16.5
Alliance Naomi Long 16,978 42.8 +5.6
NI Conservatives Neil Wilson6 1,121 2.8 N/A
Green (NI) Ross Brown 1,058 2.7 N/A
Sinn Féin Niall Ó Donnghaile 823 2.1 −0.3
SDLP Mary Muldoon 127 0.3 −0.8
Majority 2,597 6.5
Turnout 39,682 62.8 +4.4

Sitting MP: Gavin Robinson (DUP)
Prediction: DUP hold

2. Belfast North

Nigel Dodds (DUP) 14,812 (40.0%, -5.6%)
Gerry Kelly (Sinn Féin) 12,588 (34.0%, +5.4%)
Alban Maginness (SDLP) 4,544 (12.3%, -3.9%)
Fred Cobain (UCUNF) 2,837 (7.7%, +0.6%)
William Webb (Alliance) 1,809 (4.9%, +3.5%)
Martin McAuley (Independent) 403 (1.1%)
Majority 2,224

2015 Result:

DUP Nigel Dodds5 19,096 47.0 +7.0
Sinn Féin Gerry Kelly 13,770 33.9 -0.1
SDLP Alban Maginness6 3,338 8.2 -4.1
Alliance Jason O’Neill7 2,941 7.3 +2.4
Workers’ Party Gemma Weir7 919 2.3 N/A
Independent Fra Hughes 529 1.3 N/A
Majority 5,326 13.1 +7.1
Turnout 40,593 59.2 +2.7

Sitting MP: Nigel Dodds (DUP)
Prediction: DUP hold

3. Belfast South

Alasdair McDonnell (SDLP) 14,026 (41.0%, +8.9%)
Jimmy Spratt (DUP) 8,100 (23.7%, -6.1%)
Paula Bradshaw (UCUNF) 5,910 (17.3%, -4.9%)
Anna Lo (Alliance) 5,114 (15.0%, +7.8%)
Adam McGibbon (Green) 1,036 (3.0%)
Majority: 5,926

SDLP Alasdair McDonnell 9,560 24.5 −16.5
DUP Jonathan Bell 8,654 22.2 −1.5
Alliance Paula Bradshaw 6,711 17.2 +2.3
Sinn Féin Máirtín Ó Muilleoir 5,402 13.9 N/A
UUP Rodney McCune 3,549 9.1 −8.2
Green (NI) Clare Bailey 2,238 5.7 +2.7
UKIP Bob Stoker 1,900 4.9 N/A
NI Conservatives Ben Manton 582 1.5 N/A
Workers’ Party Lily Kerr 361 0.9 N/A
Majority 906 2.3 −15.0
Turnout 38,957 60.0 +2.6

Sitting MP: Alasdair McDonnell (SDLP)
Prediction: SDLP hold

4. Belfast West

Gerry Adams (Sinn Féin) 22,840 (71.1%, +3.5%)
Alex Attwood (SDLP) 5,261 (16.4%, +0.4%)
William Humphrey (DUP) 2,436 (7.6%, -3.2%)
Bill Manwaring (UCUNF) 1,000 (3.1% +0.6%)
Maire Hendron (Alliance) 596 (1.9% , +1.8%)
Majority: 17,579

BY ELECTION
Paul Maskey (SF) 16,211 (70.6%, -0.5%)
Alex Attwood (SDLP) 3088 (13.5%, -2.9%)
Gerry Carroll (People Before Profit) 1751 (7.6%)
Brian Kingston (DUP) 1393 (6.1%, -1.5%)
Bill Manwaring (UUP) 386 (1.7%, -1.4%)
Aaron McIntyre (Alliance) 122 (0.5%, -1.4%)
Majority: 13,123

2015 Result:
Sinn Féin Paul Maskey 19,163 54.2 −16.4
People Before Profit Gerry Carroll 6,798 19.2 +11.6
SDLP Alex Attwood 3,475 9.8 −3.7
DUP Frank McCoubrey 2,773 7.8 +1.7
UUP Bill Manwaring 1,088 3.1 +1.4
UKIP Brian Higginson10 765 2.2 N/A
Alliance Gerard Catney 11 636 1.8 +1.3
Workers’ Party John Lowry10 597 1.7 N/A
NI Conservatives Paul Shea 34 0.1 N/A
Majority 12,365 35.0 -19.7
Turnout 35,329 56.3 +2.3

Sitting MP: Paul Maskey (Sinn Fein)
Prediction: Sinn Fein hold

5. East Antrim

Sammy Wilson (DUP) 13,993 (45.9%, -1.0%)
Rodney McCune (UCUNF) 7,223 (23.7%, -1.4%)
Gerry Lynch (Alliance) 3,377 (11.1%, -3.6%)
Oliver McMullan (Sinn Féin) 2,064 (6.8%, +1.4%)
Justin McCamphill (SDLP) 2,019 (6.6%, -0.8%)
Samuel Morrison (TUV) 1,826 (6.0%)
Majority 6,770

2015 Result:
DUP Sammy Wilson 12,103 36.1 −9.7
UUP Roy Beggs Jnr 6,308 18.8 −4.9
Alliance Stewart Dickson 5,021 15.0 +3.9
UKIP Noel Jordan 3,660 10.9 +10.9
Sinn Féin Oliver McMullan 2,314 6.9 +0.1
TUV Ruth Wilson 1,903 5.7 −0.3
SDLP Margaret Anne McKillop 1,639 4.9 −1.7
NI Conservatives Alex Wilson 549 1.6 +1.6
Majority 5,795 17.3 -4.9
Turnout 33,497 53.3 +2.6
Sitting MP: Sammy Wilson (DUP)
Prediction: DUP hold

6. East Londonderry

Gregory Campbell (DUP) 12,097 (34.6%, -6.4%)
Cathal Ó hOisín (Sinn Féin) 6,742 (19.3%, +1.9%)
Lesley Macaulay (UCUNF) 6,218 (17.8%, -1.9%)
Thomas Conway (SDLP) 5,399 (15.5% -3.8%)
William Ross (TUV) 2,572 (7.4%)
Barney Fitzpatrick (Alliance) 1,922 (5.5%, +3.1%)
Majority 5355

2015 Result:
DUP Gregory Lloyd Campbell 14,663 42.2 +7.6
Sinn Féin Caoimhe Archibald 6,859 19.8 +0.5
UUP William McCandless6 5,333 15.4 −2.4
SDLP Gerry Mullan 4,268 12.3 −3.2
Alliance Yvonne Boyle 2,642 7.6 +2.1
CISTA Neil Paine 527 1.5 +1.5
NI Conservatives Liz St Clair-Legge 422 1.2 +1.2
Majority 7,804 22.5 +7.2
Turnout 34,714 51.9 −3.4

Sitting MP: Gregory Campbell (DUP)
Prediction: DUP hold

7. Fermanagh & South Tyrone

Michelle Gildernew (Sinn Féin) 21,304 (45.5%, +7.3%)
Rodney Connor (Independent) 21,300 (45.5%)
Fearghal McKinney (SDLP) 3,574 (7.6%, -7.2%)
Vasundhara Kamble (Alliance) 437 (0.9%)
John Stevenson (Independent) 188 (0.4%)
Majority: 4

2015 Result:
UUP Tom Elliott 23,608 46.4 N/A
Sinn Féin Michelle Gildernew 23,078 45.4 −0.1
SDLP John Coyle 2,732 5.4 −2.3
Green (NI) Tanya Jones 788 1.5 N/A
Alliance Hannah Su 658 1.3 +0.4
Majority 530 1.0
Turnout 50,864 72.6 +3.7

Sitting MP: Tom Elliott (UUP)
Prediction: Sinn Fein gain

Sinn Fein lost the seat narrowly in 2010, but the Sinn Fein surge at the Assemby elections point to them regaining the seat this time.

8. Foyle

Mark Durkan (SDLP) 16,922 (44.7%, -1.7%)
Martina Anderson (Sinn Féin) 12,098 (31.9% -1.4%)
Maurice Devenney (DUP) 4,489 (11.9%, -2.2%)
Eamonn McCann (People Before Profit) 2,936 (7.8%)
David Harding (UCUNF) 1,221 (3.2%, +0.9%)
Keith McGrellis (Alliance) 223 (0.6%)
Majority: 4,824

2015 Result:
SDLP Mark Durkan 17,725 47.9 +3.2
Sinn Féin Gearóid Ó hEára 11,679 31.6 −0.4
DUP Gary Middleton 4,573 12.4 +0.5
UUP Julia Kee 1,226 3.3 +0.1
Alliance David Hawthorne 835 2.3 +1.7
UKIP Kyle Thompson 832 2.2 N/A
NI Conservatives Hamish Badenoch 132 0.4 N/A
Majority 6,046 16.3 +3.6
Turnout 37,002 52.8 −4.7

Sitting MP: Mark Durkan (SDLP)
Prediction: SDLP hold

9. Lagan Valley

Jeffrey Donaldson (DUP) 18,199 (49.8%, -8.5%)
Daphne Trimble (UCUNF) 7,713 (21.1%, -1.9%)
Trevor Lunn (Alliance) 4,174 (11.4%, +0.5%)
Keith Harbinson (TUV) 3,154 (8.6%)
Brian Heading (SDLP) 1,835 (5.0%, +1.5%)
Paul Butler (Sinn Féin) 1,465 (4.0%, -0.3%)
Majority: 10,486

2015 Result:
DUP Jeffrey Donaldson 19,055 47.9 −1.9
UUP Alexander Redpath 6,055 15.2 −5.9
Alliance Trevor Lunn 5,544 13.9 +2.5
SDLP Pat Catney 2,500 6.3 +1.3
UKIP Alan Love 2,200 5.5 N/A
TUV Samuel Morrison 1,887 4.7 −3.9
Sinn Féin Jacqui McGeough 1,144 2.9 −1.1
Independent Jonny Orr 756 1.9 N/A
NI Conservatives Helen Osborne 654 1.6 N/A
Majority 13,000 32.7 +4.0
Turnout 39,795 55.9 −0.1

Sitting MP: Jeffrey Donaldson (DUP)
Prediction: DUP hold

10. Mid Ulster

Martin McGuinness (Sinn Féin) 21,239 (52.0%, +4.4%)
Ian McCrea (DUP) 5,876 (14.4%, -9.1%)
Tony Quinn (SDLP) 5,826 (14.3%, -3.1%)
Sandra Overend (UCUNF) 4,509 (11.0%, +0.3%)
Walter Millar (TUV) 2,995 (7.3%)
Ian Butler (Alliance) 397 1.0%
Majority: 15,363

BY-ELECTION
Francie Molloy (SF) 17,462 (46.9%, -5.1%)
Nigel Lutton (Independent) 12,781 (34.4%)
Patsy McGlone (SDLP) 6,478 (17.4%, +3.1%)
Eric Bullick (Alliance) 487 (1.3%, +0.3%)
Majority: 4,681

2015 Result:
Sinn Féin Francie Molloy 19,935 48.7 −3.3
UUP Sandra Overend 6,318 15.4 +4.4
DUP Ian McCrea 5,465 13.4 -1.0
SDLP Malachy Quinn 5,055 12.4 −1.9
TUV Gareth Ferguson 1,892 4.6 −2.7
UKIP Alan Day8 863 2.1 +2.1
Alliance Eric Bullick 778 1.9 +0.9
Workers’ Party Hugh Scullion 496 1.2 +1.2
NI Conservatives Lucille Nicholson 120 0.3 +0.3
Majority 13,617 33.3 -4.3
Turnout 40,922 60.3 −2.9

Sitting MP: Francie Molloy (Sinn Fein)
Prediction: Sinn Fein hold

11. Newry & Armagh

Conor Murphy (Sinn Féin) 18,857 (42.0%, +0.6%)
Dominic Bradley (SDLP) 10,526 (23.4%, -1.8%)
Danny Kennedy (UCUNF) 8,558 (19.1%, +5.2)
William Irwin (DUP) 5,764 (12.8%, -5.6%)
William Frazer (Independent) 656 (1.5%)
Andrew Muir (Alliance) 545 (1.2%)
Majority: 8,331

2015 Result:
Sinn Féin Mickey Brady 20,488 41.1 −0.9
UUP Danny Kennedy5 16,312 32.7 +13.6
SDLP Justin McNulty 12,026 24.1 +0.7
Alliance Kate Nicholl 841 1.7 +0.5
NI Conservatives Robert Rigby 210 0.4 N/A
Majority 4,176 8.4 −10.2
Turnout 49,877 64.2 +3.8

Sitting MP: Mickey Brady (Sinn Fein)
Prediction: Sinn Fein hold

12. North Antrim

Ian Paisley [jr] (DUP) 19,672 (46.4%, -10.2%)
Jim Allister (TUV) 7,114 (16.8%)
Daithi McKay (Sinn Féin) 5,265 (12.4%, -1.8%)
Irwin Armstrong (UCUNF) 4,634 (10.9%, -4.1%)
Declan O’Loan (SDLP) 3,738 (8.8%, -2.2%)
Jayne Dunlop (Alliance) 1,368 (3.2%, +0.1%)
Lyle Cubitt (Independent) 606 (1.4%)
Majority: 12,558

2015 Result:
DUP Ian Richard Kyle Paisley Jr. 18,107 43.2 −3.2
TUV Timothy Gaston5 6,561 15.7 −1.1
Sinn Féin Daithí McKay 5,143 12.3 -0.1
UUP Robin Swann 5,054 12.1 +1.1
SDLP Declan O’Loan 2,925 7.0 -1.8
Alliance Jayne Dunlop 2,351 5.6 +2.4
UKIP Robert Hill 1,341 3.2 n/a
NI Conservatives Carol Freeman 368 0.9 n/a
Independent Thomas Palmer 57 0.1 n/a
Majority 11,546 27.6 -2.0
Turnout 41,907 55.2 -2.6

Sitting MP: Ian Paisley Jnr (DUP)
Prediction: DUP hold

13. North Down

*Sylvia Hermon (Independent) 21,181 (63.3%)
Ian Parsley (UCUNF) 6,817 (20.4%, -32.5%)
@Stephen Farry (Alliance) 1,876 (5.6%, -2.0%)
Mary Kilpatrick (TUV) 1,634 (4.9%)
Steven Agnew (Green) 1,043 (3.1%)
Liam Logan (SDLP) 680 (2.0%, -1.1%)
Vincent Parker (Sinn Féin) 250 (0.8%, +0.2%)
Majority: 14,364

2015 Result:
Independent Lady Hermon 17,689 49.2 −14.1
DUP Alex Easton 8,487 23.6 N/A
Alliance Andrew Muir 3,086 8.6 +3.0
Green (NI) Steven Agnew 1,958 5.4 +2.3
NI Conservatives Mark Brotherston 1,593 4.4 N/A
UKIP Jonny Lavery 1,482 4.1 N/A
TUV William Cudworth 686 1.9 −3.0
SDLP Tom Woolley 355 1.0 −1.0
CISTA Glenn Donnelly 338 0.9 N/A
Sinn Féin Therese McCartney 273 0.8 +0.1
Majority 9,202 25.6 -17.3
Turnout 35,947 56.0 +0.8

Sitting MP: Lady Sylvia Hermon (Ind)
Prediction: Independent hold

14. South Antrim

William McCrea (DUP) 11,536 (33.9%, -6.4%)
Reg Empey (UCUNF) 10,353 (30.4, +0.8%)
@Mitchel McLaughlin (Sinn Féin) 4,729 (13.9%, +3.2%)
Michelle Byrne (SDLP) 2,955 (8.7% -2.5%)
Alan Lawther (Alliance) 2,607 (7.7%, -0.6%)
Melwyn Lucas (TUV) 1,829 (5.4%)
Majority: 1,183

2015 Result:
UUP Danny Kinahan 11,942 32.7 +2.3
DUP William McCrea 10,993 30.1 −3.8
Sinn Féin Declan Kearney 4,699 12.9 -1.0
Alliance Neil Kelly 3,576 9.8 +2.1
SDLP Roisin Lynch 2,990 8.2 −0.5
TUV Rick Cairns 1,908 5.2 −0.2
NI Conservatives Alan Dunlop 415 1.1 N/A
Majority 949 2.6
Turnout 36,523 54.2 +0.3

Sitting MP: Danny Kinehan (UUP)
Prediction: UUP hold

A real marginal. Difficult to call but incumbency is always a factor.

15. South Down

Margaret Ritchie (SDLP) 20,648 (48.5%, +1.7%)
Caitriona Ruane (Sinn Féin) 12,236 (28.7%, +1.7%)
Jim Wells (DUP) 3,645 (8.6%, -7.5%)
John McCallister (UCUNF) 3,093 (7.3% -1.5%)
Ivor McConnell (TUV) 1,506 (3.5%)
Cadogan Enright (Green) 901 (2.1%)
David Griffin (Alliance) 560 (1.3%, ±0%)
Majority: 8,412

2015 Result:
SDLP Margaret Ritchie7 18,077 42.3 -6.1
Sinn Féin Chris Hazzard7 12,186 28.5 -0.2
UUP Harold McKee 3,964 9.3 +2.0
DUP Jim Wells 3,486 8.2 -0.4
UKIP Henry Reilly7 3,044 7.1 n/a
Alliance Martyn Todd7 1,622 3.8 +2.5
NI Conservatives Felicity Buchan 318 0.7 n/a
Majority 5,891 13.8 -6.0
Turnout 42,589 56.8 -3.4

Sitting MP: Margaret Ritchie (SDLP)
Prediction: SDLP hold

16. Strangford

Jim Shannon (DUP) 14,926 (45.9%, -4.9%)
Mike Nesbitt (UCUNF) 9,050 (27.8%,+2.6%)*
Deborah Girvan (Alliance) 2,828 (8.7%, +0.3%)
Claire Hanna (SDLP) 2,164 (6.7%, -1.5%)
Terry Williams (TUV) 1,814 (5.6%)
Michael Coogan (Sinn Féin) 1,161 (3.6%, -0.1%)
Barbara Haig (Green) 562 (1.7%)
Majority: 5,876

2015 Result:
DUP Jim Shannon 15,053 44.4 −1.5
UUP Robert Burgess 4,868 14.3 −13.5
Alliance Kellie Armstrong 4,687 13.8 +5.1
SDLP Joe Boyle 2,335 6.9 +0.2
UKIP Joe Jordan8 2,237 6.6 N/A
NI Conservatives Johnny Andrews9 2,167 6.4 N/A
TUV Stephen Cooper 1,701 5.0 −0.6
Sinn Féin Sheila Bailie 876 2.6 −1.0
Majority 10,185 30.0 +11.9
Turnout 33,924 52.8 −0.9

Sitting MP: Jim Shannon (DUP)
Prediction: DUP hold

17. Upper Bann

David Simpson (DUP) 14,000 (33.8%, -3.8%)
Harry Hamilton (UCUNF) 10,639 (25.7%, +0.2%)
John O’Dowd (Sinn Féin) 10,237 (24.7%, +3.7%)
Dolores Kelly (SDLP) 5,276 (12.7%, -0.2%)
Brendan Heading (Alliance) 1,231 (3.0%, +0.8%)
Majority: 3,361

2015 Result:
DUP David Simpson 15,430 32.7 −1.2
UUP Jo-Anne Dobson 13,166 27.9 +2.2
Sinn Féin Catherine Seeley 11,593 24.6 −0.2
SDLP Dolores Kelly 4,238 9.0 −3.8
Alliance Peter Lavery 1,780 3.8 +0.8
CISTA Martin Kelly 460 1.0 N/A
Workers’ Party Damien Harte 351 0.7 N/A
NI Conservatives Amandeep Singh Bhogal 201 0.4 N/A
Majority 2,264 4.8 −3.3
Turnout 47,219 59.0 3.7

Sitting MP: David Simpson (DUP)
Prediction: DUP hold

18. West Tyrone

Pat Doherty (Sinn Féin) 18,050 (48.4%, +9.5%)
Thomas Buchanan (DUP) 7,365 (19.8%, +2.0%)
Ross Hussey (UCUNF) 5,281 (14.2%, +7.3%)
Joe Byrne (SDLP) 5,212 (14.0%, +4.9%)
Michael Bower (Alliance) 859 (2.3%)
Ciaran McClean (Independent) 508 (1.4%)
Majority: 10,685

Sinn Féin Pat Doherty 16,807 43.5 −4.9
DUP Thomas Buchanan 6,747 17.5 −2.3
SDLP Daniel McCrossan 6,444 16.7 +2.7
UUP Ross Hussey 6,144 15.9 +1.7
Alliance Stephen Donnelly 869 2.2 −0.1
Green (NI) Ciaran McClean4 780 2.0 N/A
CISTA Barry Brown 5 528 1.4 N/A
NI Conservatives Claire-Louise Leyland 169 0.4 N/A
Independent Susan-Anne White 166 0.4 N/A
Majority 10,060 26.0 −2.7
Turnout 38,654 60.5 −0.5

Sitting MP: Pat Doherty (Sinn Fein)
Prediction: Sinn Fein hold

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General Election Predictions

General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 16. Teesside

27 Apr 2017 at 12:01

TEESSIDE

Seats: 6
Current Political Makeup: Con 1, Lab 5
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 3, Lab 3

1. Hartlepool

2010 Result:
Conservative: 10758 (28.1%)
Labour: 16267 (42.5%)
Lib Dem: 6533 (17.1%)
BNP: 2002 (5.2%)
UKIP: 2682 (7%)
MAJORITY: 5509 (14.4%)

2015 Result:
Labour Iain Wright 14,076 35.6 -6.9
UKIP Phillip Broughton 11,052 28.0 +21.0
Conservative Richard Royal 8,256 20.9 -7.2
Independent Stephen Picton 2,954 7.5 N/A
Green Michael Holt 1,341 3.4 N/A
Save Hartlepool Hospital Sandra Allison 849 2.1 N/A
Liberal Democrat Hilary Allen 761 1.9 -15.2
Independent John Hobbs 201 0.5 +N/A
Majority 3,024 7.7 -6.7
Turnout 39,490 56.8 +1.3

Leave Vote: 63.49%

Sitting MP: Iain Wright (Lab)
Prediction: Conservative gain

Iain Wright is standing down and although this ought to be a top UKIP target, if the polls are right and UKIP’s vote in seeping to the Tories, it’s quite possible they will win here. Alternatively they could continue to split the anti-Labour vote and let Labour through the middle. In the end it will come down to how effective the Tory candidate is in persuading UKIP voters that they should move their vote to the Tories.

2. Middlesbrough

2010 Result:
Conservative: 6283 (18.8%)
Labour: 15351 (45.9%)
Lib Dem: 6662 (19.9%)
BNP: 1954 (5.8%)
UKIP: 1236 (3.7%)
Independent: 1969 (5.9%)
MAJORITY: 8689 (26%)

2015 Result:
Labour Andy McDonald 18,584 56.8 +10.9
UKIP Nigel Baker 6,107 18.7 +15.0
Conservative Simon Clarke 5,388 16.5 -2.3
Green Hannah Graham 1,407 4.3 +4.3
Liberal Democrat Richard Kilpatrick 1,220 3.7 -16.2
Majority 12,477 38.1 +12.1
Turnout 32,706 52.9

Leave Vote: 57.72%

Sitting MP: Andrew McDonald
Prediction: Labour hold

3. Middlesbrough South & East Cleveland

2010 Result:
Conservative: 16461 (35.6%)
Labour: 18138 (39.2%)
Lib Dem: 7340 (15.9%)
BNP: 1576 (3.4%)
UKIP: 1881 (4.1%)
Independent: 818 (1.8%)
MAJORITY: 1677 (3.6%)

2015 Result:
Labour Tom Blenkinsop 19,193 42.0 +2.8
Conservative Will Goodhand 16,925 37.1 +1.4
UKIP Steve Turner 6,935 15.2 +11.1
Liberal Democrat Ben Gibson 1,564 3.4 -12.5
Green Martin Brampton 1,060 2.3 +2.3
Majority 2,268 5.0 +1.4
Turnout 45,677 64.2 +0.6

Leave Vote: 61.17%

Sitting MP: Tom Blenkinsop (Lab)
Prediction: Conservative gain

This seat has been slipping away from Labour for some time and the fact that Tom Blenkinsop is standing down won’t help their cause. He clearly saw the electoral writing on the wall. A surefire Tory gain.

4. Redcar

2010 Result:
Conservative: 5790 (13.8%)
Labour: 13741 (32.7%)
Lib Dem: 18955 (45.2%)
BNP: 1475 (3.5%)
UKIP: 1875 (4.5%)
TUSC: 127 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 5214 (12.4%)

2015 Result:
Labour Co-op Anna Turley 17,946 43.9 +11.1
Liberal Democrat Josh Mason 7,558 18.5 -26.7
UKIP Christopher Gallacher 7,516 18.4 +13.9
Conservative Jacob Young 6,630 16.2 +2.4
Green Peter Pinkney 880 2.2 +2.2
North East Party Philip Lockey 389 1.0 +1.0
Majority 10,388 25.4
Turnout 40,919 63.1 +0.6

Leave Vote: 66.27%

Sitting MP: Anna Turley (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

How the LibDems won this seat in 2010 is anyone’s guess. Any chance they had of hanging onto it disappeared when Ian Swales announced he wouldn’t stand again in 2015, and sure enough Labour won it back with a big majority. In theory it should stay Labour but there was a massive Leave vote here and this might well have an impact on the electoral arithmetic. This is a difficult one but a Labour hold must be the most likely result.

5. Stockton North

2010 Result:
Conservative: 10247 (25.9%)
Labour: 16923 (42.8%)
Lib Dem: 6342 (16.1%)
BNP: 1724 (4.4%)
UKIP: 1556 (3.9%)
English Dem: 1129 (2.9%)
Independent: 1577 (4%)
MAJORITY: 6676 (16.9%)

2015 Result:
Labour Alex Cunningham 19,436 49.1 +6.3
Conservative Christopher Daniels 11,069 28.0 +2.0
UKIP Mandy Boylett 7,581 19.2 +15.2
Liberal Democrat Anthony Sycamore 884 2.2 −13.8
North East Party John Tait 601 1.5 +1.5
Majority 8,367 21.1
Turnout 39,571 59.8

Leave Vote: 62.44%

Sitting MP: Alex Cunningham (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

On a great night for the Tories this seat would fall. I’m going to play safe on this one as I’m not quite sure the sums work unless it really is a masisve landslide night.

6. Stockton South

2010 Result:
Conservative: 19577 (38.9%)
Labour: 19245 (38.3%)
Lib Dem: 7600 (15.1%)
BNP: 1553 (3.1%)
UKIP: 1471 (2.9%)
Christian: 302 (0.6%)
Independent: 536 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 332 (0.7%)

2015 Result:
Conservative James Wharton 24,221 46.8 +7.8
Labour Louise Baldock 19,175 37.0 -1.3
UKIP Ted Strike 5,480 10.6 +7.7
Liberal Democrat Drew Durning 1,366 2.6 -12.5
Green Jacqui Lovell 952 1.8 +1.8
Independent Steve Walmsley 603 1.2 +1.2
Majority 5,046 9.7
Turnout 51,797 69.0

Leave Vote: 54.4%

Sitting MP: James Wharton (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

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General Election Predictions

General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 15. County Durham

27 Apr 2017 at 09:11

COUNTY DURHAM

Seats: 7
Current Political Makeup: Lab 7
Predicted Political Makeup after June 8: Con 2, Lab 5

1. Bishop Auckland

2010 Result:
Conservative: 10805 (26.3%)
Labour: 16023 (39%)
Lib Dem: 9189 (22.3%)
BNP: 2036 (4.9%)
UKIP: 1119 (2.7%)
Others: 1964 (4.8%)
MAJORITY: 5218 (12.7%)

2015 Result:
Labour Helen Goodman 16,307 41.4 +2.4
Conservative Christopher Adams 12,799 32.5 +6.2
UKIP Rhys Burriss 7,015 17.8 +15.1
Liberal Democrat Stephen White 1,723 4.4 -18.0
Green Thom Robinson 1,545 3.9 N/A
Majority 3,508 8.9
Turnout 38,389 59.6

Leave Vote: 63.28%

Sitting MP: Helen Goodman (Lab)
Prediction: Conservative gain

This seat’s Labour majority was cut substantially last time mainly because Labour voters went to UKIP. They’re unlikely to return to the fold this time given that this constituency had a very high Leave vote. If Brexit is important to them, many of them may vote Conservative. The big question is how many. Enough, is my prediction.

2. City of Durham

2010 Result:
Conservative: 6146 (13.3%)
Labour: 20496 (44.3%)
Lib Dem: 17429 (37.7%)
BNP: 1153 (2.5%)
UKIP: 856 (1.9%)
Independent: 172 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 3067 (6.6%)

2015 Result:
Labour Roberta Blackman-Woods 21,596 47.3 +2.9
Conservative Rebecca Coulson14 10,157 22.2 +8.9
UKIP Liam Clark 5,232 11.4 +9.6
Liberal Democrat Craig Martin15 5,183 11.3 −26.3
Green Jonathan Elmer16 2,687 5.9 N/A
Independent John Marshall17 649 1.4 N/A
Independent Jon Collings 195 0.4 N/A
Majority 11,439 25.0
Turnout 45,699 66.5

Leave Vote: 48.09%

Sitting MP: Roberta Blackman-Woods (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

3. Darlington

2010 Result:
Conservative: 13503 (31.5%)
Labour: 16891 (39.4%)
Lib Dem: 10046 (23.4%)
BNP: 1262 (2.9%)
UKIP: 1194 (2.8%)
MAJORITY: 3388 (7.9%)

2015 Result:
Labour Jenny Chapman 17,637 42.9 +3.5
Conservative Peter Cuthbertson6 14,479 35.2 +3.7
UKIP David Hodgson7 5,392 13.1 +10.3
Liberal Democrat Anne-Marie Curry8 1,966 4.8 -18.6
Green Michael Cherrington9 1,444 3.5 N/A
TUSC Alan Docherty 10 223 0.5 N/A
Majority 3,158 7.7 -0.2
Turnout 41,141 62.5 +0.6

Leave Vote: 59.04%

Sitting MP: Jenny Chapman (Lab)
Prediction: Conservative gain

Michael Fallon was MP here between 1983 and 1992 and there are plenty of Tories who expected to win it back in 2010 and 2015. It didn’t happen, but this seat goes Tory in the event of a big Tory victory. They have a strong candidate in Peter Cuthbertson, who fought the seat last time and is fighting again. It will be a shock if he doesn’t pull it off.

4. Easington

2010 Result:
Conservative: 4790 (13.7%)
Labour: 20579 (58.9%)
Lib Dem: 5597 (16%)
BNP: 2317 (6.6%)
UKIP: 1631 (4.7%)
MAJORITY: 14982 (42.9%)

2015 Result:
Labour Grahame Morris 21,132 61.0 +2.1
UKIP Jonathan Arnott 6,491 18.7 +14.1
Conservative Chris Hampsheir 4,478 12.9 -0.8
Liberal Democrat Luke Armstrong 834 2.4 -13.6
North East Party Susan McDonnell5 810 2.3 N/A
Green Martie Warin 733 2.1 N/A
Socialist (GB) Steve Colborn 6 146 0.4 N/A
Majority 14,641 42.3 -0.6
Turnout 34,624 56.1 +1.4

Leave Vote: 68.79

Sitting MP: Grahame Morris (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

One of the few seats where the UKIP vote might actually go up.

5. North Durham

2010 Result:
Conservative: 8622 (21%)
Labour: 20698 (50.5%)
Lib Dem: 8617 (21%)
BNP: 1686 (4.1%)
UKIP: 1344 (3.3%)
MAJORITY: 12076 (29.5%)

2015 Result:
Labour Kevan Jones 22,047 54.9 +4.4
Conservative Laetitia Glossop5 8,403 20.9 -0.1
UKIP Malcolm Bint 6 6,404 16.0 +12.7
Liberal Democrat Peter Maughan7 2,046 5.1 -15.9
Green Victoria Nolan8 1,246 3.1 N/A
Majority 13,644 34.0
Turnout 40,146 61.4 +0.8

Leave Vote: 63.48%

Sitting MP: Kevan Jones (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

6. North West Durham

2010 Result:
Conservative: 8766 (20%)
Labour: 18539 (42.3%)
Lib Dem: 10927 (24.9%)
BNP: 1852 (4.2%)
UKIP: 1259 (2.9%)
Independent: 2472 (5.6%)
MAJORITY: 7612 (17.4%)

2015 Result:
Labour Pat Glass 20,074 46.9 +4.6
Conservative Charlotte Haitham-Taylor 10,018 23.4 +3.4
UKIP Bruce Reid 7,265 17.0 +14.1
Liberal Democrat Owen Temple 3,894 9.1 -15.8
Green Mark Shilcock 1,567 3.7 N/A
Majority 10,056 23.5
Turnout 42,818 61.3

Leave Vote: 58.68%

Sitting MP: Pat Glass (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Pat Glass is standing down and although there’s still a healthy 10k majority here for Labour this may be an outside chance for the Conservatives. Unlikely though.

7. Sedgefield

2010 Result:
Conservative: 9445 (23.5%)
Labour: 18141 (45.1%)
Lib Dem: 8033 (20%)
BNP: 2075 (5.2%)
UKIP: 1479 (3.7%)
Others: 1049 (2.6%)
MAJORITY: 8696 (21.6%)

2015 Result:
Labour Philip Wilson 18,275 47.2 +2.1
Conservative Scott Wood 11,432 29.5 +6.0
UKIP John Leathley 6,426 16.6 +12.9
Liberal Democrat Stephen Glenn 1,370 3.5 −16.4
Green Greg Robinson 1,213 3.1 N/A
Majority 6,843 17.7
Turnout 38,716 61.6

Leave Vote: 62.35%

Sitting MP: Phil Wilson (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

The Labour majority here has been declining here ever since Tony Blair left but the vote share is a healthy 47%. The cheering in CCHQ would be wild if the Tories managed to take this, but you feel only a very high turnout would enable them to do it.

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General Election Predictions

General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 14: Wales - South Glamorgan

26 Apr 2017 at 22:20

SOUTH GLAMORGAN

Seats: 5
Current Political Makeup: Con 2, Lab 3
Predicted Political Makeup after May 8: Con 4, LibDem 1
Revised: Con 2, Lab 3

1. Cardiff Central

2010 Result:
Conservative: 7799 (21.6%)
Labour: 10400 (28.8%)
Lib Dem: 14976 (41.4%)
Plaid Cymru: 1246 (3.4%)
Green: 575 (1.6%)
UKIP: 765 (2.1%)
TUSC: 162 (0.4%)
Independent: 86 (0.2%)
Others: 142 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 4576 (12.7%)

2015 Result:
Labour Jo Stevens9 15,462 40.01 +11.2
Liberal Democrat Jenny Willott9 10,481 27.12 −14.3
Conservative Richard Hopkin 5,674 14.68 −6.9
UKIP Anthony Raybould10 2,499 6.47 +4.4
Green Chris Von Ruhland 10 2,461 6.37 +4.8
Plaid Cymru Martin Pollard 1,925 4.98 +1.5
TUSC Steve Williams11 110 0.28 −0.2
Independent Kazimir Hubert9 34 0.09 N/A
Majority 4,981 12.9
Turnout 38,646 67.3 +8.2

Leave Vote: 28.38%

Sitting MP: Jo Stevens (Lab)
Prediction: LibDem gain
Revised: Lab hold

Eluned Parrott replaces Jenny Willott in this seat as LibDem candidate and she stands a good chance of re-gaining the seat from Labour. This seat has a huge Remain vote and that may be the key to LibDem success.

2. Cardiff North

2010 Result:
Conservative: 17860 (37.5%)
Labour: 17666 (37.1%)
Lib Dem: 8724 (18.3%)
Plaid Cymru: 1588 (3.3%)
Green: 362 (0.8%)
UKIP: 1130 (2.4%)
Christian: 300 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 194 (0.4%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Craig Williams 21,709 42.4 +4.9
Labour Mari Williams 19,572 38.3 +1.2
UKIP Ethan R Wilkinson 3,953 7.7 +5.4
Plaid Cymru Elin Jones 2,301 4.5 +1.2
Liberal Democrat Elizabeth Clark 1,953 3.8 −14.5
Green Ruth Osner 1,254 2.5 +1.7
Christian Jeff Green 331 0.6 0.0
Alter Change Shaun Jenkins 78 0.2 n/a
Majority 2,137 4.2 +3.8
Turnout 51,151 76.1 +3.4

Leave Vote: 38.31%

Sitting MP: Craig Williams (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Craig Williams increased the Tory majority of 195 to more than 2000 so must be confident of retaining the seat.

3. Cardiff South & Penarth

2010 Result:
Conservative: 12553 (28.3%)
Labour: 17262 (38.9%)
Lib Dem: 9875 (22.3%)
Plaid Cymru: 1851 (4.2%)
Green: 554 (1.2%)
UKIP: 1145 (2.6%)
Christian: 285 (0.6%)
Independent: 648 (1.5%)
Others: 196 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 4709 (10.6%)

2015 Result:
Labour Co-op Stephen Doughty14 19,966 42.8 +3.9
Conservative Emma Warman 12,513 26.8 −1.5
UKIP John Rees-Evans15 6,423 13.8 +11.2
Plaid Cymru Ben Foday 16 3,443 7.4 +3.2
Liberal Democrat Nigel Howells 2,318 5.0 −17.3
Green Anthony Slaughter 1,746 3.7 +2.5
TUSC Ross Saunders 258 0.6 n/a
Majority 7,453 16.0 −11.4
Turnout 46,667 61.4 +1.2

Leave Vote: 45.51%

Sitting MP: Stephen Doughty (Lab)
Prediction: Conservative gain
Revised: Lab hold

If the UKIP vote goes to the Conservatives as the ITV Wales poll predicts, this is a pretty definite Tory gain.

4. Cardiff West

2010 Result:
Conservative: 12143 (29.6%)
Labour: 16894 (41.2%)
Lib Dem: 7186 (17.5%)
Plaid Cymru: 2868 (7%)
Green: 750 (1.8%)
UKIP: 1117 (2.7%)
MAJORITY: 4751 (11.6%)

2015 Result:
Labour Kevin Brennan 17,803 40.7 −0.6
Conservative James Taghdissian 11,014 25.2 −4.5
Plaid Cymru Neil McEvoy 6,096 13.9 +6.9
UKIP Brian Morris 4,923 11.2 +8.5
Liberal Democrat Cadan ap Tomos 2,069 4.7 −12.8
Green Ken Barker 1,704 3.9 +2.1
TUSC Helen Jones 183 0.4 n/a
Majority 6,789 15.5 +3.9
Turnout 43,792 65.6 +0.4

Leave Vote: 44.22%

Sitting MP: Kevin Brennan (Lab)
Prediction: Conservative gain
Revised: Lab hold

Kevin Brennan won’t have anything to worry about. That’s what I said in 2015 and I was right. This time he does. A very popular MP, he might well lose his seat to the Conservatives if the stars align. I think they might well do.

5. Vale of Glamorgan

2010 Result:
Conservative: 20341 (41.8%)
Labour: 16034 (32.9%)
Lib Dem: 7403 (15.2%)
Plaid Cymru: 2667 (5.5%)
Green: 457 (0.9%)
UKIP: 1529 (3.1%)
Christian: 236 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 4307 (8.8%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Alun Cairns 23,607 46.0 +4.2
Labour Chris Elmore 16,727 32.6 −0.3
UKIP Kevin Mahoney 5,489 10.7 +7.6
Plaid Cymru Ian Johnson 2,869 5.6 +0.1
Liberal Democrat David Morgan6 1,309 2.6 −12.7
Green Alan Armstrong 1,054 2.1 +1.1
CISTA Steve Reed 238 0.5 +0.5
Majority 6,880 13.4 +4.6
Turnout 51,293 71.1 +1.8

Leave Vote: 51.02%

Sitting MP: Alun Cairns (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

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General Election Predictions

General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 13. Bristol & Surrounds

26 Apr 2017 at 20:29

Bristol & Surrounds

Seats: 11
Current Political Makeup: Con 8, Lab 3
Predicted Political Makeup after June 8: Con 8 , LibDem 2, Green 1
Revised: Con 9, Lab 1, Green 1
*
1. Bath*

2010 Result:
Conservative: 14768 (31.4%)
Labour: 3251 (6.9%)
Lib Dem: 26651 (56.6%)
Green: 1120 (2.4%)
UKIP: 890 (1.9%)
Christian: 250 (0.5%)
Independent: 56 (0.1%)
Others: 100 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 11883 (25.2%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Ben Howlett 16 17,833 37.8 +6.4
Liberal Democrat Steve Bradley 17 14,000 29.7 −26.9
Labour Ollie Middleton 1819 6,216 13.2 +6.3
Green Dominic Tristram 20 5,634 11.9 +9.6
UKIP Julian Deverell 21 2,922 6.2 +4.3
Independent Loraine Morgan-Brinkhurst 2223 499 1.1 +1.1
English Democrat Jenny Knight 63 0.1 +0.1
Majority 3,833 8.1 −7
Turnout 47,167 77.5 5.7

Leave Vote: 33.58%

Sitting MP: Ben Howlett (Con)
Prediction: LibDem gain
Revised: Con hold

The Conservatives were desperate to win this seat back ever since Chris Patten lost it in 1992, and they did so in 2015. There’s a very good chance the LibDems could win it back this time even though the MP is so left of centre and pro Remain he’s virtually a LibDem anyway. If the Greens stand down and the LibDems can attract some of the Labour vote, Ben Howlett is going to be facing his P45. Because of his arch-Remain stance it’s unlikely many UKIP voters will switch to him.

2. Bristol East

2010 Result:
Conservative: 12749 (28.3%)
Labour: 16471 (36.6%)
Lib Dem: 10993 (24.4%)
BNP: 1960 (4.4%)
Green: 803 (1.8%)
UKIP: 1510 (3.4%)
English Dem: 347 (0.8%)
TUSC: 184 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 3722 (8.3%)

2015 Result:
Labour Kerry McCarthy 18,148 39.3 +2.7
Conservative Theodora Clarke 14,168 30.7 +2.3
UKIP James McMurray 7,152 15.5 +12.1
Green Lorraine Francis9 3,827 8.3 +6.5
Liberal Democrat Abdul Malik 2,689 5.8 −18.6
TUSC Matt Gordon10 229 0.5 +0.1
Majority 3,980 8.6 +0.3
Turnout 46,213 64.2 −0.6

Leave Vote: 54.94%

Sitting MP: Kerry McCarthy (Lab)
Prediction: Conservative gain

This has consistently been a Labour seat but the Conservatives will target this seat on June 8th. Kerry McCarthy’s best hope is that she can persuade the Greens to stand down and give her a clear run. If UKIP voters switch in enough numbers and Leave supporting Labour voters defect too, McCarthy will lose. I expect her to.

3. Bristol North West

2010 Result:
Conservative: 19115 (38%)
Labour: 13059 (25.9%)
Lib Dem: 15841 (31.5%)
Green: 511 (1%)
UKIP: 1175 (2.3%)
English Dem: 635 (1.3%)
MAJORITY: 3274 (6.5%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Charlotte Leslie 22,767 43.9 +6.0
Labour Darren Jones 17,823 34.4 +8.5
UKIP Michael Frost 4,889 9.4 +7.1
Liberal Democrat Clare Campion-Smith 3,214 6.2 -25.3
Green Justin Quinnell 2,952 5.7 +4.7
TUSC Anne Lemon 160 0.3 N​/A
Majority 4,944 9.5 +6.0
Turnout 51,805 67.6 -0.9

Leave Vote: 46.21%

Sitting MP: Charlotte Leslie (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

4. Bristol South

2010 Result:
Conservative: 11086 (22.9%)
Labour: 18600 (38.4%)
Lib Dem: 13866 (28.7%)
BNP: 1739 (3.6%)
Green: 1216 (2.5%)
UKIP: 1264 (2.6%)
English Dem: 400 (0.8%)
TUSC: 206 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 4734 (9.8%)

2015 Result:
Labour Karin Smyth 7 19,505 38.4 -0.1
Conservative Isobel Grant 8 12,377 24.3 +1.4
UKIP Steve Wood 9 8,381 16.5 +13.9
Green Tony Dyer 10 5,861 11.5 +9.0
Liberal Democrat Mark Wright 11 4,416 8.7 -20.0
TUSC Tom Baldwin 12 302 0.6 +0.2
Majority 7,128 14.0 +4.2
Turnout 50,842 62.0 +0.4

Leave Vote: 54.05%

Sitting MP: Karin Smith (Lab)
Prediction: Conservative gain
Revised: Lab hold

Safe Labour seat. At least it was. I expect the Labour vote to drift to the Greens and LibDems (assuming the Greens stand) and the Torie to pick off half of the UKIP vote. If that happens Karin Smith is toast.

5. Bristol West

2010 Result:
Conservative: 10169 (18.4%)
Labour: 15227 (27.5%)
Lib Dem: 26593 (48%)
Green: 2090 (3.8%)
UKIP: 655 (1.2%)
English Dem: 270 (0.5%)
Independent: 343 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 11366 (20.5%)

2015 Result:
Labour Thangam Debbonaire 22,900 35.7 +8.1
Green Darren Hall 17,227 26.8 +23.0
Liberal Democrat Stephen Williams 12,103 18.8 −29.2
Conservative Claire Hiscott 9,752 15.2 −3.2
UKIP Paul Turner 1,940 3.0 +1.8
Independent Dawn Parry 204 0.3 N/A
Left Unity Stewart Weston 92 0.1 N/A
Majority 5,673 8.8 -11.7
Turnout 64,218 72.0 +5.1

Leave Vote: 19.95%

Sitting MP: Thangnam Debbonaire (Lab)
Prediction: Green gain

The Greens are taking the seat very seriously and it’s their best hope of doubling their parliamentary representation. The popular MEP Molly Scott Cato is their candidate and I expect her to eat into the LibDem vote. A lot depends on whether any of the Labour vote goes to them or the LibDems. Thangnam Debbonaire is quite popular and if anyone can hold onto the seat it’s her, but I am going to stick my neck out and predict a very narrow Green win. I may live to regret it.

6. Filton & Bradley Stoke

2010 Result:
Conservative: 19686 (40.8%)
Labour: 12772 (26.4%)
Lib Dem: 12197 (25.3%)
BNP: 1328 (2.7%)
Green: 441 (0.9%)
UKIP: 1506 (3.1%)
Christian: 199 (0.4%)
Others: 172 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 6914 (14.3%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Jack Lopresti 22,920 46.7 +5.9
Labour Ian Boulton 13,082 26.6 +0.2
UKIP Ben Walker 7,261 14.8 +11.7
Liberal Democrat Pete Bruce 3,581 7.3 -18.0
Green Diana Warner 2,257 4.6 +3.7
Majority 9,838 20.0 +5.8
Turnout 49,101 68.9 -1.1

Leave Vote: 51.25%

Sitting MP: Jack Lopresti (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

7. Kingswood

2010 Result:
Conservative: 19362 (40.4%)
Labour: 16917 (35.3%)
Lib Dem: 8072 (16.8%)
BNP: 1311 (2.7%)
Green: 383 (0.8%)
UKIP: 1528 (3.2%)
English Dem: 333 (0.7%)
MAJORITY: 2445 (5.1%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Chris Skidmore 23,252 48.3 +7.9
Labour Jo McCarron7 14,246 29.6 -5.7
UKIP Duncan Odgers8 7,133 14.8 +11.6
Liberal Democrat Adam Boyden9 1,827 3.8 -13.1
Green Cezara Nanu10 1,370 2.8 +2.0
BNP Julie Lake11 164 0.3 -2.4
TUSC Richard Worth12 84 0.2 +0.2
Vapers In Power Liam Bryan 49 0.1 +0.1
Majority 9,006 18.7 +13.6
Turnout 48,125 70.8 -1.4

Leave Vote: 60.63%

Sitting MP: Chris Skidmore (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

8. North East Somerset

2010 Result:
Conservative: 21130 (41.3%)
Labour: 16216 (31.7%)
Lib Dem: 11433 (22.3%)
Green: 670 (1.3%)
UKIP: 1754 (3.4%)
MAJORITY: 4914 (9.6%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Jacob Rees-Mogg 25,439 49.8 +8.5
Labour Todd Foreman 12,690 24.8 −6.8
UKIP Ernest Blaber 6,150 12.0 +8.6
Liberal Democrat Wera Hobhouse 4,029 7.9 −14.4
Green Katy Boyce9 2,802 5.5 +4.2
Majority 12,749 24.9
Turnout 73.7

Leave Vote: 54.23%

Sitting MP: Jacob Rees-Mogg (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

9. North Somerset

2010 Result:
Conservative: 28549 (49.3%)
Labour: 6448 (11.1%)
Lib Dem: 20687 (35.7%)
UKIP: 2257 (3.9%)
MAJORITY: 7862 (13.6%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Liam Fox 31,540 53.5 +4.2
Labour Greg Chambers 8,441 14.3 +3.2
UKIP Ian Kealey8 7,669 13.0 +9.1
Liberal Democrat Marcus Kravis 7,486 12.7 −23.0
Green David Derbyshire 3,806 6.5 +6.5
Majority 23,099 39.2 +25.6
Turnout 58,942 73.6 −1.4

Leave Vote: 49.25%

Sitting MP: Liam Fox (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

10. Thornbury & Yate

2010 Result:
Conservative: 17916 (37.2%)
Labour: 3385 (7%)
Lib Dem: 25032 (51.9%)
UKIP: 1709 (3.5%)
Others: 184 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 7116 (14.8%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Luke Hall 19,924 41.0 +3.9
Liberal Democrat Steve Webb 18,429 37.9 -14.0
UKIP Russ Martin 5,126 10.6 +7.0
Labour Hadleigh Roberts 3,775 7.8 +0.8
Green Iain Hamilton 1,316 2.7 N/A
Majority 1,495 3.1
Turnout 48,570 73.7

Leave Vote: 55.97%

Sitting MP: Luke Hall (Con)
Prediction: LibDem gain
Revised: Con hold

This is incredibly difficult to predict. Steve Webb isn’t restanding for the LibDems but even so I think this is a probable LibDem gain, especially if the Greens can be persuaded to stand aside. Luke Hall’s main hope is that he can attract the bulk of the UKIP vote. It will all depend on that.

11. Weston Super Mare

2010 Result:
Conservative: 23356 (44.3%)
Labour: 5772 (10.9%)
Lib Dem: 20665 (39.2%)
BNP: 1098 (2.1%)
UKIP: 1406 (2.7%)
English Dem: 275 (0.5%)
Independent: 144 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 2691 (5.1%)

2015 Result:
Conservative John Penrose 25,203 48.0 +3.7
Labour Tim Taylor 9,594 18.3 +7.4
UKIP Ernie Warrender 9,366 17.8 +15.1
Liberal Democrat John Munro 5,486 10.4 -28.8
Green Richard Lawson 2,592 4.9 +4.9
English Democrat Ronald Lavelle 311 0.6 +0.1
Majority 15,609 29.7 +24.6
Turnout 52,552 66.0 -1.2

Leave Vote: 58.42%

Sitting MP: John Penrose (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

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General Election Predictions

General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 12. Gloucestershire

25 Apr 2017 at 23:06

Seats: 6
Current Political Makeup: Con 6, LibDem 0
Predicted Political Makeup after June 8: Con 5, LibDem 1
Revised: Con 6

1. Cheltenham

2010 Result:
Conservative: 21739 (41.2%)
Labour: 2703 (5.1%)
Lib Dem: 26659 (50.5%)
UKIP: 1192 (2.3%)
Others: 493 (0.9%)
MAJORITY: 4920 (9.3%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Alex Chalk 11 24,790 46.1 +5.0
Liberal Democrat Martin Horwood 11 18,274 34.0 −16.5
Labour Paul Gilbert 12 3,902 7.3 +2.1
UKIP Christina Simmonds13 3,808 7.1 +4.8
Green Adam Van Coevorden 2,689 5.0 +5.0
Independent Richard Lupson-Darnell14 272 0.5 +0.5
Majority 6,516 12.1
Turnout 53,735 69.5 +2.4

Leave Vote: 38.76%

Sitting MP: Alex Chalk (Con)
Prediction LibDem gain
Revised: Con hold

This is one of those Tory seats which could easily fall to the LibDems. It has a high Remain vote and there’s little UKIP vote for the Tories to eat into. If the Greens don’t stand here it would also add impetus to the LibDems, whose former MP Martin Horwood is standing again. If there’s a Tory landslide they could just about hold onto this, but all things considered I’d say this is a decent bet for the LibDems.

2. Forest of Dean

2010 Result:
Conservative: 22853 (46.9%)
Labour: 11789 (24.2%)
Lib Dem: 10676 (21.9%)
Green: 923 (1.9%)
UKIP: 2522 (5.2%)
MAJORITY: 11064 (22.7%)

Conservative Mark Harper5 23,191 46.8 −0.1
Labour Steve Parry-Hearn5 12,204 24.6 +0.5
UKIP Steve Stanbury 8,792 17.8 +12.6
Green James Greenwood 2,703 5.5 +3.6
Liberal Democrat Christopher Coleman 2,630 5.3 −16.6
Majority 10,987 22.2 −0.5
Turnout 49,520 70.9 −0.4

Leave Vote: 58.37%

Sitting MP: Mark Harper (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

3. Gloucester

2010 Result:
Conservative: 20267 (39.9%)
Labour: 17847 (35.2%)
Lib Dem: 9767 (19.2%)
Green: 511 (1%)
UKIP: 1808 (3.6%)
English Dem: 564 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 2420 (4.8%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Richard Graham 23,837 45.3 +5.4
Labour Sophy Gardner12 16,586 31.5 -3.6
UKIP Richard Ford 7,497 14.3 +10.7
Liberal Democrat Jeremy Hilton 2,828 5.4 -13.8
Green Jonathan Ingleby 1,485 2.8 +1.8
Monster Raving Loony George Ridgeon 277 0.4 +0.4
TUSC Sue Powell13 58 0.1 +0.1
Majority 7,241 13.8 +9.0
Turnout 52,565 63.4 -0.6

Leave Vote: 56.14%

Sitting MP: Richard Graham (Con)
Prediction: *Conservative
hold

4. Stroud

2010 Result:
Conservative: 23679 (40.8%)
Labour: 22380 (38.6%)
Lib Dem: 8955 (15.4%)
Green: 1542 (2.7%)
UKIP: 1301 (2.2%)
Independent: 116 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 1299 (2.2%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Neil Carmichael 27,813 45.7 +4.9
Labour Co-op David Drew 22,947 37.7 -0.9
UKIP Caroline Stephens11 4,848 8.0 +5.7
Green Sarah Lunnon 2,779 4.6 +1.9
Liberal Democrat Adrian Walker-Smith 2,086 3.4 -12.0
Independent Richard Wilson 246 0.4 +0.4
Free Public Transport David Michael 100 0.2 +0.2
Majority 4,866 8.0
Turnout 60,819 75.5

Leave Vote: 48.63%

Sitting MP: Neil Carmichael (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

5. Tewkesbury

2010 Result:
Conservative: 25472 (47.2%)
Labour: 6253 (11.6%)
Lib Dem: 19162 (35.5%)
Green: 525 (1%)
UKIP: 2230 (4.1%)
Others: 319 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 6310 (11.7%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Laurence Robertson 30,176 54.5 +7.3
Labour Ed Buxton 8,204 14.6 +3.2
Liberal Democrat Alistair Cameron 7,629 13.8 -21.7
UKIP Stuart Adair10 7,128 12.9 +8.7
Green Jemma Clarke11 2,207 4.0 +3.0
Majority 21,972 39.7 +28.0
Turnout 55,344 70.1 -0.3

Leave Vote: 52.38%

Sitting MP: Laurence Robertson (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

6. The Cotswolds

2010 Result:
Conservative: 29075 (53%)
Labour: 5886 (10.7%)
Lib Dem: 16211 (29.6%)
Green: 940 (1.7%)
UKIP: 2292 (4.2%)
Independent: 428 (0.8%)
MAJORITY: 12864 (23.5%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Geoffrey Clifton-Brown 32,045 56.5 +3.5
Liberal Democrat Paul Hodgkinson 6 10,568 18.6 −10.9
UKIP Chris Harlow 6,188 10.9 +6.7
Labour Manjinder Kang 5,240 9.2 −1.5
Green Penny Burgess 2,626 4.6 +2.9
Majority 21,477 37.9 +14.4
Turnout 56,667 72.4 +0.9

Leave Vote: 47.58%

Sitting MP: Geoffrey Clifton-Brown (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

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