General Election Predictions

General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 27. Lancashire

29 Apr 2017 at 20:59

LANCASHIRE

Seats: 16
Current Political Makeup: Con 8, Lab 8
Predicted Political Makeup after June 8: Con 12, Lab 3, LibDem 1
Revised: Con 12, Lab 4

1. Blackburn

2010 Result:
Conservative: 11895 (26.1%)
Labour: 21751 (47.8%)
Lib Dem: 6918 (15.2%)
BNP: 2158 (4.7%)
UKIP: 942 (2.1%)
Independent: 238 (0.5%)
Others: 1597 (3.5%)
MAJORITY: 9856 (21.7%)

2015 Result:
Kate Hollern Labour 24,762 56.3 +8.5
Bob Eastwood Conservative 12,002 27.3 +1.1
Dayle Taylor UKIP 6,280 14.3 +12.2
Gordon Lishman Liberal Democrat 955 2.2 −13.0
Majority: 12,760 (29.0%) +8.3
Swing: +3.7% from Con to Lab

Leave Vote: 55.9%

Sitting MP: Kate Hollern (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

2. Blackpool North & Cleveleys

2010 Result:
Conservative: 16964 (41.8%)
Labour: 14814 (36.5%)
Lib Dem: 5400 (13.3%)
BNP: 1556 (3.8%)
UKIP: 1659 (4.1%)
Others: 198 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 2150 (5.3%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Paul Maynard 17,508 44.4 +2.7
Labour Samuel Rushworth 14,168 36.0 -0.5
UKIP Simon Noble 5,823 14.8 +10.7
Liberal Democrat Sue Close 948 2.4 -10.9
Green John Warnock 889 2.3 +2.3
Northern James Walsh 57 0.1 0.1
Majority 3,340 8.5 +3.2
Turnout 39,393 63.1 +1.5

Leave Vote: 66.9%

Sitting MP: Paul Maynard (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

3. Blackpool South

2010 Result:
Conservative: 12597 (35.8%)
Labour: 14449 (41.1%)
Lib Dem: 5082 (14.4%)
BNP: 1482 (4.2%)
UKIP: 1352 (3.8%)
Others: 230 (0.7%)
MAJORITY: 1852 (5.3%)

2015 Result:
Labour Gordon Marsden 13,548 41.8 +0.7
Conservative Peter Anthony 10,963 33.8 −2.0
UKIP Peter Wood 5,613 17.3 +13.5
Green Duncan Royle 841 2.6 +2.6
Liberal Democrat Bill Greene 743 2.3 −12.2
Independent Andy Higgins 655 2.0 +2.0
Independent Lawrence Chard 73 0.2 +0.2
Majority 2,585 8.0 +2.7
Turnout 32,436 56.5 +0.7

Leave Vote: 67.8%
Sitting MP: Gordon Marsden (Lab)
Prediction: Conservative gain

If there’s anything like a certain gain for the Conservatives in the North West, this is it.

4. Burnley

2010 Result:
Conservative: 6950 (16.6%)
Labour: 13114 (31.3%)
Lib Dem: 14932 (35.7%)
BNP: 3747 (9%)
UKIP: 929 (2.2%)
Independent: 1876 (4.5%)
Others: 297 (0.7%)
MAJORITY: 1818 (4.3%)

2015 Result:
Labour Julie Cooper 14,951 37.6 +6.3
Liberal Democrat Gordon Birtwistle 11,707 29.5 −6.2
UKIP Tom Commis 6,864 17.3 +15.0
Conservative Sarah Cockburn-Price 5,374 13.5 −3.1
Green Mike Hargreaves 850 2.1 N/A
Majority 3,244 8.2
Turnout 39,746 61.6

Leave Vote: 64.7%

Sitting MP: Julie Cooper (Lab)
Prediction: Lib Dem gain
Revised: Lab hold

Gordon Birtwhistle surprised everyone by taking this seat in 2010, and he had the mother of all struggles to keep it in 2015. He failed then, but he might just regain it this time. The only fly in the ointment is the high Leave vote. I seem to remember that Birtwhistle is a bit of a LibDem Eurosceptic, though. I’m chancing my arm a bit here but I think he could do it, but it may come down to a few hundred votes.

5. Chorley

2010 Result:
Conservative: 18922 (38%)
Labour: 21515 (43.2%)
Lib Dem: 6957 (14%)
UKIP: 2021 (4.1%)
Independent: 359 (0.7%)
MAJORITY: 2593 (5.2%)

2015 Result:
Labour Lindsay Hoyle 23,322 45.1 +1.9
Conservative Robert Loughenbury 18,792 36.3 −1.7
UKIP Mark Smith 6,995 13.5 +9.5
Liberal Democrat Stephen Fenn 1,354 2.6 −11.4
Green Alistair Straw 1,111 2.1 N/A
Independent Adrian Maudsley 138 0.3 N/A
Majority 4,530 8.8
Turnout 51,712 69.2

Leave Vote: 56.7%

Sitting MP: Lindsay Hoyle (Lab)
Prediction: Conservative gain

Not a safe seat, and has been Tory in recent history. However, Lindsay Hoyle is a popular MP locally and he may be more difficult to shift than some think. However, if my predictions on the UKIP vote happen and the Labour vote diminishes in any way, I’m afraid there will have to be a different successor to John Bercow. Which would be a shame.

6. Fylde

2010 Result:
Conservative: 22826 (52.2%)
Labour: 8624 (19.7%)
Lib Dem: 9641 (22.1%)
Green: 654 (1.5%)
UKIP: 1945 (4.5%)
MAJORITY: 13185 (30.2%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Mark Menzies 21,406 49.1 −3.1
Labour Jed Sullivan 8,182 18.8 −1.0
UKIP Paul White 5,569 12.8 +8.3
Independent Mike Hill 5,166 11.9 N/A
Liberal Democrat Freddie van Mierlo 1,623 3.7 −18.3
Green Bob Dennett 1,381 3.2 +1.7
Northern Elizabeth Clarkson 230 0.5 N/A
Majority 13,224 30.4 +0.2
Turnout 43,557 66.3 +0.0

Leave Vote: 56.7%

Sitting MP: Mark Menzies (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

7. Hyndburn

2010 Result:
Conservative: 14441 (33.8%)
Labour: 17531 (41.1%)
Lib Dem: 5033 (11.8%)
BNP: 2137 (5%)
Green: 463 (1.1%)
UKIP: 1481 (3.5%)
English Dem: 413 (1%)
Independent: 378 (0.9%)
Others: 795 (1.9%)
MAJORITY: 3090 (7.2%)

2015 Result:
Labour Graham Jones 18,076 42.1 +1.1
Conservative Kevin Horkin 13,676 31.9 -2.0
UKIP Janet Brown 9,154 21.3 +17.9
Green Kerry Gormley 1,122 2.6 +1.5
Liberal Democrat Alison Firth 859 2.0 -9.8
Majority 4,400 10.3
Turnout 42,887 62.8 -0.7

Leave Vote: 65.8%

Sitting MP: Graham Jones (Lab)
Prediction: Conservative gain

A traditional Tory/Labour marginal the Tories last held this seat in the 1980s and expected to win it back in 2010. Another of those seats that goes Tory in a very good year.

8. Lancaster & Fleetwood

2010 Result:
Conservative: 15404 (36.1%)
Labour: 15071 (35.3%)
Lib Dem: 8167 (19.1%)
BNP: 938 (2.2%)
Green: 1888 (4.4%)
UKIP: 1020 (2.4%)
Independent: 213 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 333 (0.8%)

2015 Result:
Labour Cat Smith 17,643 42.3 +7.0
Conservative Eric Ollerenshaw 16,378 39.2 +3.2
UKIP Matthew Atkins 4,060 9.7 +7.3
Green Chris Coates 2,093 5.0 +0.6
Liberal Democrat Robin Long 1,390 3.3 −15.8
Northern Harold Elletson 174 0.4 +0.4
Majority 1,265 3.0
Turnout 41,738 68.6 +7.5

Leave Vote: 52.0%

Sitting MP: Cat Smith (Lab)
Prediction: Conservative gain

This was won by the Corbynista MP Cat Smith in 2015 but her tenure is to be short lived. Previous MP Eric Ollerenshaw is fighting the seat again.

9. Morecambe & Lunesdale

2010 Result:
Conservative: 18035 (41.5%)
Labour: 17169 (39.5%)
Lib Dem: 5791 (13.3%)
Green: 598 (1.4%)
UKIP: 1843 (4.2%)
MAJORITY: 866 (2%)

2015 Result:
Conservative David Morris 19,691 45.5 +4.0
Labour Amina Lone 15,101 34.9 −4.6
UKIP Steven Ogden 5,358 12.4 +8.1
Liberal Democrat Matthew Severn 1,612 3.7 −9.6
Green Phil Chandler 1,395 3.2 +1.8
Independent Michael Dawson 85 0.2 +0.2
Majority 4,590 10.6 +8.6
Turnout 43,242 65.0 +2.0

Leave Vote: 58.2

Sitting MP: David Morris (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

10. Pendle

2010 Result:
Conservative: 17512 (38.9%)
Labour: 13927 (30.9%)
Lib Dem: 9095 (20.2%)
BNP: 2894 (6.4%)
UKIP: 1476 (3.3%)
Christian: 141 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 3585 (8%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Andrew Stephenson 20,978 47.2 +8.3
Labour Azhar Ali 15,525 34.9 +4.0
UKIP Michael Waddington 5,415 12.2 +8.9
Liberal Democrat Graham Roach 1,487 3.3 −16.8
Green Laura Fisk 1,043 2.3 +2.3
Majority 5,453 12.3 +4.3
Turnout 44,448 68.7 +0.9

Leave Vote: 63.2%

Sitting MP: Andrew Stephenson (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

11. Preston

2010 Result:
Conservative: 7060 (21.7%)
Labour: 15668 (48.2%)
Lib Dem: 7935 (24.4%)
UKIP: 1462 (4.5%)
Christian: 272 (0.8%)
Independent: 108 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 7733 (23.8%)

2015 Result:
Labour Co-op Mark Hendrick 18,755 56.0 +7.8
Conservative Richard Holden 6,688 20.0 −1.7
UKIP James Barker 5,139 15.4 +10.9
Green Gemma Christie 1,643 4.9 N/A
Liberal Democrat Jo Barton 1,244 3.7 −20.7
Majority 12,067 36.1 +12.3
Turnout 33,469 55.8 +3.8

Leave Vote: 55.7%

Sitting MP: Mark Hendrick (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

12. Ribble Valley

2010 Result:
Conservative: 26298 (50.3%)
Labour: 11529 (22%)
Lib Dem: 10732 (20.5%)
UKIP: 3496 (6.7%)
Others: 232 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 14769 (28.2%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Nigel Evans 25,404 48.6 −1.7
Labour David Hinder 11,798 22.6 +0.5
UKIP Shirley Parkinson 8,250 15.8 +9.1
Liberal Democrat Jackie Pearcey 2,756 5.3 −15.2
Green Graham Sowter 2,193 4.2 +4.2
Independent David Brass 1,498 2.9 N/A
Independent Grace Astley 288 0.6 N/A
Independent Tony Johnson 56 0.1 −0.3
Majority 13,606 26.0 −2.3
Turnout 52,243 67.1 +0.1

Leave Vote: 58.7%

Sitting MP: Nigel Evans (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

13. Rossendale & Darwen

2010 Result:
Conservative: 19691 (41.8%)
Labour: 15198 (32.2%)
Lib Dem: 8541 (18.1%)
UKIP: 1617 (3.4%)
English Dem: 663 (1.4%)
Independent: 113 (0.2%)
Others: 1305 (2.8%)
MAJORITY: 4493 (9.5%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Jake Berry 22,847 46.6 +4.8
Labour Will Straw 17,193 35.1 +2.8
UKIP Clive Balchin 6,862 14.0 +10.6
Green Karen Pollard-Rylance 1,046 2.1 N/A
Liberal Democrat Afzal Anwar 806 1.6 −16.5
Independent Kevin Scranage 122 0.2 N/A
TUSC Simon Thomas 103 0.2 N/A
Northern Shaun Hargreaves 45 0.1 N/A
Majority 5,654 11.5 +2.0
Turnout 49,024 66.4 +1.8

Leave Vote: 58.9%

Sitting MP: Jake Berry (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

14. South Ribble

2010 Result:
Conservative: 23396 (45.5%)
Labour: 17842 (34.7%)
Lib Dem: 7271 (14.1%)
BNP: 1054 (2%)
UKIP: 1895 (3.7%)
MAJORITY: 5554 (10.8%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Seema Kennedy 24,313 46.4 +1.0
Labour Veronica Bennett 18,368 35.1 +0.4
UKIP David Gallagher 7,377 14.1 +10.4
Liberal Democrat Sue McGuire 2,312 4.4 −9.7
Majority 5,945 11.4 +0.6
Turnout 52,370 68.5 +0.6

Leave Vote: 56.6%

Sitting MP: Seema Kennedy (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

15. West Lancashire

2010 Result:
Conservative: 17540 (36.2%)
Labour: 21883 (45.1%)
Lib Dem: 6573 (13.6%)
Green: 485 (1%)
UKIP: 1775 (3.7%)
Others: 217 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 4343 (9%)

2015 Result:
Labour Rosie Cooper 24,474 49.3 +4.1
Conservative Paul Greenall 16,114 32.4 −3.7
UKIP Jack Sen1 6,058 12.2 +8.5
Green Ben Basson 1,582 3.2 +2.2
Liberal Democrat Daniel Lewis 1,298 2.6 −10.9
Independent David Braid 150 0.3 −0.1
Majority 8,360 16.8 +7.8
Turnout 49,676 70.0 +6.2

Leave Vote: 55.0%

Sitting MP: Rosie Cooper (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Ken Hind held this seat for the Tories from 1983-92. Might fall in a big majority, but I’ll stick with a Labour gain for now.

16. Wyre & Preston North

2010 Result:
Conservative: 26877 (52.4%)
Labour: 10932 (21.3%)
Lib Dem: 11033 (21.5%)
UKIP: 2466 (4.8%)
MAJORITY: 15844 (30.9%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Ben Wallace 26,528 53.2 +0.8
Labour Ben Whittingham 12,377 24.8 +3.5
UKIP Kate Walsh 6,577 13.2 +8.4
Liberal Democrat John Potter 2,712 5.4 -16.1
Green Anne Power 1,699 3.4 +3.4
Majority 14,151 28.4 -2.5
Turnout 49,893 70.6 -1.5

Leave Vote: 54.2%

Sitting MP: Ben Wallace (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE

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General Election Predictions

General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 26. London - East

29 Apr 2017 at 20:26

Seats: 8
Current Political Makeup: Con 2, Lab 6
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 3, Lab 5

Barking

2010 Result:
Conservative: 8073 (17.8%)
Labour: 24628 (54.3%)
Lib Dem: 3719 (8.2%)
BNP: 6620 (14.6%)
Green: 317 (0.7%)
UKIP: 1300 (2.9%)
Christian: 482 (1.1%)
Independent: 77 (0.2%)
Others: 127 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 16555 (36.5%)

2015 Result:
Labour Margaret Hodge 24,826 57.7 +3.4
UKIP Roger Gravett 9,554 22.2 +19.3
Conservative Mina Rahman13 7,019 16.3 −1.5
Green Tony Rablen 879 2.0 +1.3
Liberal Democrat Peter Wilcock 562 1.3 −6.9
TUSC Joseph Mambuliya14 183 0.4 N/A
Majority 15,272 35.5 -1.0
Turnout 43,023 58.2 -3.2

Leave Vote: 59.6%

Sitting MP: Margaret Hodge (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Bethnal Green & Bow

2010 Result:
Conservative: 7071 (13.9%)
Labour: 21784 (42.9%)
Lib Dem: 10210 (20.1%)
BNP: 1405 (2.8%)
Green: 856 (1.7%)
Respect: 8532 (16.8%)
Independent: 277 (0.5%)
Others: 593 (1.2%)
MAJORITY: 11574 (22.8%)

2015 Result:
Rushanara Ali Labour 32,387 61.2 +18.3
Matthew Smith Conservative 8,070 15.2 +1.3
Alistair Polson Green 4,906 9.3 +7.6
Pauline McQueen UKIP 3,219 6.1 N/A
Teena Lashmore Liberal Democrat 2,395 4.5 −15.6
Glyn Robbins TUSC 949 1.8 N/A
M Rowshan Ali Communities United 356 0.7 N/A
Jonathan Dewey CISTA 303 0.6 N/A
Alasdair Henderson15 Whig 203 0.4 N/A
Elliot Ball The 30–50 Coalition 78 0.1 N/A
Jason Pavlou Red Flag Anti-Corruption 58 0.1 N/A
Majority: 24,317 (45.9%) +23.1
Swing: 8.5% from Con to Lab

Leave Vote: 30.9%

Sitting MP: Rushanara Ali (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Dagenham & Rainham

2010 Result:
Conservative: 15183 (34.3%)
Labour: 17813 (40.3%)
Lib Dem: 3806 (8.6%)
BNP: 4952 (11.2%)
Green: 296 (0.7%)
UKIP: 1569 (3.5%)
Christian: 305 (0.7%)
Independent: 308 (0.7%)
MAJORITY: 2630 (5.9%)

2015 Result:
Labour Jon Cruddas 17,830 41.4 +1.1
UKIP Peter Harris 12,850 29.8 +26.3
Conservative Julie Marson 10,492 24.4 -10.0
Green Kate Simpson8 806 1.9 +1.2
Liberal Democrat Denise Capstick910 717 1.7 -6.9
BNP Tess Culnane 151 0.4 -10.8
Independent Terry London 133 0.3 +0.3
English Democrat Kim Gandy 71 0.2 +0.2
Majority 4,980 11.6 +5.7
Turnout 43,050 62.3 -0.9

Leave Vote: 70.34

Sitting MP: Jon Cruddas (Lab)
Prediction: Conservative gain

This seat has threatened to go Tory for some time and in 2010 it nearly did. In 2015 UKIP surprised everyone by coming second. Their vote is likely to diminish massively in this election to the benefit of the Conservatives.

East Ham

2010 Result:
Conservative: 7645 (15.2%)
Labour: 35471 (70.4%)
Lib Dem: 5849 (11.6%)
Green: 586 (1.2%)
English Dem: 822 (1.6%)
MAJORITY: 27826 (55.2%)

2015 Result:
Labour Stephen Timms 40,563 77.6 +7.2
Conservative Samir Jassal 6,311 12.1 −3.1
UKIP Daniel Oxley 2,622 5.0 N/A
Green Tamsin Omond7 1,299 2.5 +1.3
Liberal Democrat David Thorpe 856 1.6 −10.0
Communities United Mohammed Aslam 409 0.8 N/A
TUSC Lois Austin 8 230 0.4 N/A
Majority 34,252 65.5 +10.3
Turnout 52,290 59.8 +4.2

Leave Vote: 46.3%

Sitting MP: Stephen Timms (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Hackney South & Shoreditch

2010 Result:
Conservative: 5800 (13.5%)
Labour: 23888 (55.7%)
Lib Dem: 9600 (22.4%)
Green: 1493 (3.5%)
UKIP: 651 (1.5%)
Liberal: 539 (1.3%)
Christian: 434 (1%)
Independent: 95 (0.2%)
Others: 358 (0.8%)
MAJORITY: 14288 (33.3%)

2015 Result:
Labour Co-op Meg Hillier 30,633 64.4 +8.7
Conservative Jack Tinley 6,420 13.5 0.0
Green Charlotte George 5,519 11.6 +8.6
Liberal Democrat Ben Mathis 2,186 4.6 −17.8
UKIP Angus Small 1,818 3.8 +2.3
TUSC Brian Debus 302 0.6 +0.6
CISTA Paul Birch 297 0.6 +0.6
Christian Peoples Taiwo Adewuyi 236 0.5 +0.5
Independent Russell Shaw Higgs 78 0.2 +0.2
Workers Revolutionary Bill Rogers 63 0.1 +0.1
Campaign Gordon Shrigley7 28 0.1 +0.1
Majority 24,213 50.9 +19.3
Turnout 47,580 56.0 −2.9

Leave Vote: 22.8%

Sitting MP: Meg Hillier (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Hornchurch & Upminster

2010 Result:
Conservative: 27469 (51.4%)
Labour: 11098 (20.8%)
Lib Dem: 7426 (13.9%)
BNP: 3421 (6.4%)
Green: 542 (1%)
UKIP: 2848 (5.3%)
Christian: 281 (0.5%)
Independent: 305 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 16371 (30.7%

2015 Result:
Conservative Angela Watkinson 27,051 49.0 -2.5
UKIP Lawrence Webb 13,977 25.3 +20.0
Labour Paul McGeary 11,103 20.1 -0.7
Liberal Democrat Jonathan Mitchell 1,501 2.7 -11.2
Green Melanie Collins 1,411 2.6 +1.5
BNP Paul Borg 193 0.3 -6.1
Majority 13,074 23.7 -11.25
Turnout 55,236 69.6 +1.6

Leave Vote: 69.8%

Sitting MP: Angela Watkinson (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Romford

2010 Result:
Conservative: 26031 (56%)
Labour: 9077 (19.5%)
Lib Dem: 5572 (12%)
BNP: 2438 (5.2%)
Green: 447 (1%)
UKIP: 2050 (4.4%)
English Dem: 603 (1.3%)
Independent: 151 (0.3%)
Others: 112 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 16954 (36.5%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Andrew Rosindell 25,067 51.0 −5.0
UKIP Gerard Batten 11,208 22.8 +18.4
Labour Sam Gould 10,268 20.9 +1.4
Liberal Democrat Ian Sanderson7 1,413 2.9 −9.1
Green Lorna Tooley8 1,222 2.5 +1.5
Majority 13,859 28.2 −8.3
Turnout 49,178 67.7 +2.4

2015 Result:
Conservative Andrew Rosindell 25,067 51.0 −5.0
UKIP Gerard Batten 11,208 22.8 +18.4
Labour Sam Gould 10,268 20.9 +1.4
Liberal Democrat Ian Sanderson7 1,413 2.9 −9.1
Green Lorna Tooley8 1,222 2.5 +1.5
Majority 13,859 28.2 −8.3
Turnout 49,178 67.7 +2.4

Leave Vote: 67.4%

Sitting MP: Andrew Rosindell
Prediction: Conservative hold

West Ham

2010 Result:
Conservative: 6888 (14.7%)
Labour: 29422 (62.7%)
Lib Dem: 5392 (11.5%)
Green: 645 (1.4%)
UKIP: 766 (1.6%)
Independent: 1245 (2.7%)
Others: 2593 (5.5%)
MAJORITY: 22534 (48%)

2015 Result:
Labour Lyn Brown 36,132 68.4 +5.8
Conservative Festus Akinbusoye 8,146 15.4 +0.8
UKIP Jamie McKenzie12 3,950 7.5 +5.9
Green Rachel Collinson13 2,651 5.0 +3.6
Liberal Democrat Paul Reynolds14 1,430 2.7 -8.8
Christian Peoples Andy Uzoka 369 0.7 -2.1
Communities United Cydatty Bogie 115 0.2 +0.2
Majority 27,986 53.0 +5.0
Turnout 52,793 58.2 +3.2

Leave Vote: 48%

Sitting MP: Lyn Brown (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE

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General Election Predictions

General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 25. Merseyside

29 Apr 2017 at 19:14

MERSEYSIDE

Seats: 15
Current Political Makeup: Lab 14, LibDem 1
Predicted Political Makeup after June 8: Con 1, Lab 14

1. Birkenhead

2010 Result:
Conservative: 6687 (18.9%)
Labour: 22082 (62.5%)
Lib Dem: 6554 (18.6%)
MAJORITY: 15395 (43.6%)

2015 Result:
Labour Frank Field 26,468 67.6 +5.1
Conservative Clark Vasey 5,816 14.9 -4.1
UKIP Wayne Harling 3,838 9.8 +9.8
Green Kenny Peers 1,626 4.2 +4.2
Liberal Democrat Allan Brame 1,396 3.6 -15.0
Majority 20,652 52.8 +9.2
Turnout 39,144 62.7 +5.1

Leave Vote: 52.7%

Sitting MP: Frank Field (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

2. Bootle

2010 Result:
Conservative: 3678 (8.9%)
Labour: 27426 (66.4%)
Lib Dem: 6245 (15.1%)
BNP: 942 (2.3%)
UKIP: 2514 (6.1%)
TUSC: 472 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 21181 (51.3%)

2015 Result:
Labour Peter Dowd 33,619 74.5 +8.0
UKIP Paul Nuttall 4,915 10.9 +4.8
Conservative Jade Marsden 3,639 8.1 -0.9
Green Lisa Tallis 1,501 3.3 N/A
Liberal Democrat David Newman 978 2.2 -13.0
TUSC Peter Glover 500 1.1 0.0
Majority 28,704 63.6 +12.3
Turnout 45,152 64.4 +6.6

Leave Vote: 54.8%

Sitting MP: Peter Dowd (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

3. Garston & Halewood

2010 Result:
Conservative: 6908 (16.1%)
Labour: 25493 (59.5%)
Lib Dem: 8616 (20.1%)
UKIP: 1540 (3.6%)
Respect: 268 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 16877 (39.4%)

2015 Result:
Labour Maria Eagle 33,839 69.1 +9.6
Conservative Martin Williams 6,693 13.7 -2.5
UKIP Carl Schears 4,482 9.2 +5.6
Liberal Democrat Anna Martin 2,279 4.7 -15.5
Green Will Ward 1,690 3.5 +3.5
Majority 27,146 55.4 +16.0
Turnout 48,983 66.1 +6.0

Leave Vote: 47.96%

Sitting MP: Maria Eagle (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

4. Knowsley

2010 Result:
Conservative: 4004 (9%)
Labour: 31650 (70.9%)
Lib Dem: 5964 (13.4%)
BNP: 1895 (4.2%)
UKIP: 1145 (2.6%)
MAJORITY: 25686 (57.5%)

2015 Result:
Labour George Howarth 39,628 78.1 +7.2
UKIP Louise Bours 4,973 9.8 +7.2
Conservative Alice Bramall 3,367 6.6 -2.3
Liberal Democrat Carl Cashman 1,490 2.9 -10.4
Green Vikki Gregorich 1,270 2.5 N/A
Majority 34,655 68.3 +10.8
Turnout 50,728 64.1 +8.0

Leave Vote: 52.34%

Sitting MP: George Howarth (Lab)
Prediction: :Labour hold

5. Liverpool Riverside

2010 Result:
Conservative: 4243 (10.9%)
Labour: 22998 (59.3%)
Lib Dem: 8825 (22.7%)
BNP: 706 (1.8%)
Green: 1355 (3.5%)
UKIP: 674 (1.7%)
MAJORITY: 14173 (36.5%)

2015 Result:
Labour Co-op Louise Ellman 29,835 67.4 +8.1
Green Martin Dobson 5,372 12.1 +8.6
Conservative Jackson Ng 4,245 9.6 −1.3
UKIP Joe Chiffers 2,510 5.7 +3.9
Liberal Democrat Paul Childs 1,719 3.9 −18.9
TUSC Tony Mulhearn 582 1.3 +1.3
Majority 24,463 55.3 +18.8
Turnout 44,263 62.4 +10.3

Leave Vote: 27.3%

Sitting MP: Louise Ellman (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

6. Liverpool Walton

2010 Result:
Conservative: 2241 (6.5%)
Labour: 24709 (72%)
Lib Dem: 4891 (14.2%)
BNP: 1104 (3.2%)
UKIP: 898 (2.6%)
TUSC: 195 (0.6%)
Others: 297 (0.9%)
MAJORITY: 19818 (57.7%)

2015 Result:
Labour Steve Rotheram 31,222 81.3 +9.3
UKIP Steven Flatman 3,445 9.0 +6.4
Conservative Norsheen Bhatti 1,802 4.7 -1.8
Green Jonathan Clatworthy 956 2.5 N/A
Liberal Democrat Patrick Moloney 899 2.3 −11.9
Independent Alexander Karran 56 0.1 N/A
The Pluralist Party Jonathan Bishop 23 0.1 N/A
Majority 27,777 72.3 +14.6
Turnout 38,403 61.1 +6.3

Leave Vote: 52.2%

Sitting MP: Steve Rotheram (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

7. Liverpool Wavertree

2010 Result:
Conservative: 2830 (7.5%)
Labour: 20132 (53.1%)
Lib Dem: 12965 (34.2%)
BNP: 150 (0.4%)
Green: 598 (1.6%)
UKIP: 890 (2.3%)
Independent: 149 (0.4%)
Others: 200 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 7167 (18.9%)

2015 Result:
Labour Co-op Luciana Berger 28,401 69.3 +16.2
Conservative James Pearson 4,098 10.0 +2.5
UKIP Adam Heatherington 3,375 8.2 +5.9
Liberal Democrat Leo Evans 2,454 6.0 -28.2
Green Peter Cranie 2,140 5.2 +3.6
TUSC David Walsh 362 0.9 New
Independent Niamh McCarthy 144 0.4 New
Majority 24,303 59.3 +40.4
Turnout 40,974 66.4 +5.8

Leave Vote: 35.26%

Sitting MP: Luciana Berger (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

8. Liverpool West Derby

2010 Result:
Conservative: 3311 (9.3%)
Labour: 22953 (64.1%)
Lib Dem: 4486 (12.5%)
UKIP: 1093 (3.1%)
Liberal: 3327 (9.3%)
Others: 614 (1.7%)
MAJORITY: 18467 (51.6%)

2015 Result:
Labour Co-op Stephen Twigg 30,842 75.2 +11.0
UKIP Neil Miney 3,475 8.5 +5.4
Conservative Ed McRandal 2,710 6.6 −2.6
Liberal Steve Radford 2,049 5.0 −4.3
Green Rebecca Lawson 996 2.4 N/A
Liberal Democrat Paul Twigger 959 2.3 −10.2
Majority 27,367 66.7 +16.1
Turnout 41,031 64.2 +7.5

Leave Vote: 49.82%

Sitting MP: Stephen Twigg (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

9. Sefton Central

2010 Result:
Conservative: 16445 (33.9%)
Labour: 20307 (41.9%)
Lib Dem: 9656 (19.9%)
UKIP: 2055 (4.2%)
MAJORITY: 3862 (8%)

2015 Result:
Labour Bill Esterson 26,359 53.8 +11.9
Conservative Valerie Allen 14,513 29.6 -4.3
UKIP Tim Power 4,879 10.0 +5.7
Liberal Democrat Paula Keaveney 2,086 4.3 -15.7
Green Lindsay Melia 1,184 2.4 +2.4
Majority 11,846 24.2
Turnout 49,021 72.4

Sitting MP: Bill Esterson (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

10. Southport

2010 Result:
Conservative: 15683 (35.8%)
Labour: 4116 (9.4%)
Lib Dem: 21707 (49.6%)
UKIP: 2251 (5.1%)
MAJORITY: 6024 (13.8%)

2015 Result:
Liberal Democrat John Pugh 13,652 31.0 −18.7
Conservative Damien Moore 12,330 28.0 −7.9
Labour Liz Savage 8,468 19.2 +9.8
UKIP Terry Durrance 7,429 16.8 +11.7
Green Laurence Rankin 1,230 2.8 N/A
Southport Party Jacqueline Barlow 992 2.2 N/A
Majority 1,322 3.0 -10.8
Turnout 44,101 65.5 +0.4

Leave Vote: 46.3%

Sitting MP: John Pugh (LibDem)
Prediction: Conservative gain

*This seat has alternated between the LibDems and Conservatives for years, although the last time the Tories won it was in 1992. Labour are nowhere here. The reason why I think the Tories may win this time is that the UKIP vote shot up last time as their expense. If half that vote returns the LibDems will find it very difficult to retain this seat.

11. St Helens North

2010 Result:
Conservative: 9940 (22.3%)
Labour: 23041 (51.7%)
Lib Dem: 8992 (20.2%)
UKIP: 2100 (4.7%)
Others: 483 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 13101 (29.4%)

2015 Result:
Labour Conor McGinn 26,378 57.0 +5.3
Conservative Paul Richardson 9,087 19.6 −2.7
UKIP Ian Smith 6,983 15.1 +10.4
Liberal Democrat Denise Aspinall 2,046 4.4 −15.8
Green Elizabeth Ward 1,762 3.8 +3.8
Majority 17,291 37.4 +8.0
Turnout 46,256 61.5 +1.7

Leave Vote: 58.39%

Sitting MP: Conor McGinn (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

12. St Helens South & Whiston

2010 Result:
Conservative: 8209 (17.8%)
Labour: 24364 (52.9%)
Lib Dem: 10242 (22.2%)
BNP: 2040 (4.4%)
UKIP: 1226 (2.7%)
MAJORITY: 14122 (30.6%)

2015 Result:
Labour Marie Rimmer 28,950 59.8 +6.9
Conservative Gillian Keegan 7,707 15.9 −1.9
UKIP John Beirne 6,766 14.0 +11.3
Liberal Democrat Brian Spencer 2,737 5.7 −16.6
Green James Chan 2,237 4.6 +4.6
Majority 21,243 43.9 +13.3
Turnout 48,397 62.3 +3.2

Leave Vote: 56.1%

Sitting MP: Marie Rimmer (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

13. Wallasey

2010 Result:
Conservative: 13071 (31.4%)
Labour: 21578 (51.8%)
Lib Dem: 5693 (13.7%)
UKIP: 1205 (2.9%)
Independent: 107 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 8507 (20.4%)

2015 Result:
Labour Angela Eagle 26,176 60.4 +8.6
Conservative Chris Clarkson 9,828 22.7 -8.7
UKIP Geoffrey Caton 5,063 11.7 +8.8
Green Julian Pratt 1,288 3.0 +3.0
Liberal Democrat Kris Brown 1,011 2.3 -11.3
Majority 16,348 37.7 +17.3
Turnout 43,366 66.2 +3.0

Leave Vote: 52.5%

Sitting MP: Angela Eagle (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Hard to believe this was ever a Conservative seat.

14. Wirral South

2010 Result:
Conservative: 15745 (39.5%)
Labour: 16276 (40.8%)
Lib Dem: 6611 (16.6%)
UKIP: 1274 (3.2%)
MAJORITY: 531 (1.3%)

2015 Result:
Labour Alison McGovern 20,165 48.2 +7.4
Conservative John Bell 15,566 37.2 −2.2
UKIP David Scott 3,737 8.9 +5.7
Liberal Democrat Elizabeth Jewkes 1,474 3.5 −13.0
Green Paul Cartlidge 895 2.1 +2.1
Majority 4,599 11.0
Turnout 41,837 73.5

Leave Vote: 45.5%

Sitting MP: Alison McGovern (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

A very difficult seat to call. The LibDem vote last time went to Labour. Could some of it return this time? The UKIP vote here is not huge. Alison McGovern has got a good reputation and if anyone can hold this seat I expect her to.

15. Wirral West

2010 Result:
Conservative: 16726 (42.5%)
Labour: 14290 (36.3%)
Lib Dem: 6630 (16.8%)
UKIP: 899 (2.3%)
Independent: 506 (1.3%)
Others: 321 (0.8%)
MAJORITY: 2436 (6.2%)

2015 Result:
Labour Margaret Greenwood 18,898 45.1 +8.9
Conservative Esther McVey 18,481 44.2 +1.7
UKIP Hilary Jones 2,772 6.6 +4.3
Liberal Democrat Peter Reisdorf 1,433 3.4 −13.4
Independent David James 274 0.7 -0.1
Majority 417 1.0
Turnout 41,858 75.6

Leave Vote: 42.6%

Sitting MP: Margaret Greenwood (Lab)
Prediction: Con gain
Revised: Lab hold

Esther McVey’s former seat. I expect it to return to the Tory fold.

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Iain Dale talks to Mary Beard

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General Election Predictions

General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 24. Cheshire

29 Apr 2017 at 18:44

CHESHIRE

Seats: 11
Current Political Makeup: Con 7, Lab 4
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 8, Lab 3

1. City of Chester

2010 Result:
Conservative: 18995 (40.6%)
Labour: 16412 (35.1%)
Lib Dem: 8930 (19.1%)
Green: 535 (1.1%)
UKIP: 1225 (2.6%)
English Dem: 594 (1.3%)
Independent: 99 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 2583 (5.5%)

2015 Result:
Labour Chris Matheson 22,118 43.2 +8.2
Conservative Stephen Mosley 22,025 43.1 +2.5
UKIP Steve Ingram 4,148 8.1 +5.5
Liberal Democrat Bob Thompson 2,870 5.6 -13.5
Majority 93 0.2
Turnout 51,161 70.8 +2.9

Leave Vote: 42.28%

Sitting MP: Chris Matheson (Lab)
Prediction: Conservative gain

This seat swings with the political wind. And it will again this time.

2. Congleton

2010 Result:
Conservative: 23250 (45.8%)
Labour: 8747 (17.2%)
Lib Dem: 16187 (31.9%)
UKIP: 2147 (4.2%)
Independent: 276 (0.5%)
Others: 173 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 7063 (13.9%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Fiona Bruce 27,164 53.3 +7.5
Labour Darren Price 10,391 20.4 +3.2
UKIP Lee Slaughter 6,922 13.6 +9.4
Liberal Democrat Peter Hirst 4,623 9.1 −22.8
Green Alec Heath 1,876 3.7 +3.7
Majority 16,773 32.9 +19
Turnout 50,976 70.4 +1.5

Vote Leave: 52.61%

Sitting MP: Fiona Bruce (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

3. Crewe & Nantwich

2010 Result:
Conservative: 23420 (45.8%)
Labour: 17374 (34%)
Lib Dem: 7656 (15%)
BNP: 1043 (2%)
UKIP: 1414 (2.8%)
Independent: 177 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 6046 (11.8%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Edward Timpson 22,445 45.0 -0.9
Labour Adrian Heald 18,825 37.7 +3.7
UKIP Richard Lee 7,252 14.5 +11.8
Liberal Democrat Roy Wood 1,374 2.8 -12.2
Majority 3,620 7.3 -4.5
Turnout 49,896 67.4 +1.5

Vote Leave: 60.3%

Sitting MP: Edward Timpson (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Edward Timpson has cemented himself into this seat since he won the byelection and I think Labour are going to find it very hard to shift him.

4. Eddisbury

2010 Result:
Conservative: 23472 (51.7%)
Labour: 9794 (21.6%)
Lib Dem: 10217 (22.5%)
UKIP: 1931 (4.3%)
MAJORITY: 13255 (29.2%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Antoinette Sandbach 24,167 51.0 −0.6
Labour James Laing 11,193 23.6 +2.1
UKIP Rob Millington 5,778 12.2 +8.0
Liberal Democrat Ian Priestner 4,289 9.1 −13.4
Green Andrew Garman 1,624 3.4 N/A
CISTA George Antar 301 0.6 N/A
Majority 12,974 27.4
Turnout 47,352 69.0

Leave Vote: 52.17%

Sitting MP: Antoinette Sandbach (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

5. Ellesmere Port & Neston

2010 Result:
Conservative: 15419 (34.9%)
Labour: 19750 (44.6%)
Lib Dem: 6663 (15.1%)
UKIP: 1619 (3.7%)
Independent: 782 (1.8%)
MAJORITY: 4331 (9.8%)

2015 Result:
Labour Justin Madders 22,316 47.8 +3.1
Conservative Katherine Fletcher 16,041 34.3 −0.5
UKIP Jonathan Starkey 5,594 12.0 +8.3
Liberal Democrat Trish Derraugh 1,563 3.3 −11.7
Green Michelle Palmer 990 2.1 N/A
TUSC Felicity Dowling 192 0.4 N/A
Independent John Dyer 31 0.1 N/A
Majority 6,275 13.4
Turnout 46,727 68.6

Leave Vote: 58.34%

Sitting MP: Justin Madders (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

A difficult one to call. In a Tory landslide this seat might possibly go Conservative, but I’d say it’s less than 50-50.

6. Halton

2010 Result:
Conservative: 8339 (20.2%)
Labour: 23843 (57.7%)
Lib Dem: 5718 (13.8%)
BNP: 1563 (3.8%)
Green: 647 (1.6%)
UKIP: 1228 (3%)
MAJORITY: 15504 (37.5%)

2015 Result:
Labour Derek Twigg 28,292 62.8 +5.2
Conservative Matthew Lloyd 8,007 17.8 −2.4
UKIP Glyn Redican 6,333 14.1 +11.1
Liberal Democrat Ryan Bate 1,097 2.4 −11.4
Green David Melvin 1,017 2.3 +0.7
Independent Vic Turton 277 0.6 +0.6
Majority 20,285 45.1
Turnout 45,023 61.8

Leave Vote: 57.67%

Sitting MP: Derek Twigg (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

7. Macclesfield

2010 Result:
Conservative: 23503 (47%)
Labour: 10164 (20.3%)
Lib Dem: 11544 (23.1%)
Green: 840 (1.7%)
UKIP: 1418 (2.8%)
Others: 2590 (5.2%)
MAJORITY: 11959 (23.9%)

2015 Result:
Conservative David Rutley 26,063 52.5 +5.6
Labour Tim Roca 11,252 22.7 +2.4
UKIP Adrian Howard 6,037 12.2 +9.3
Liberal Democrat Neil Christian 3,842 7.7 −15.3
Green Joan Plimmer 2,404 4.8 +3.2
Majority 14,811 29.9
Turnout 49,598 69.3

Leave Vote: 47.18%

Sitting MP: David Rutley (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

8. Tatton

2010 Result:
Conservative: 24687 (54.6%)
Labour: 7803 (17.3%)
Lib Dem: 10200 (22.6%)
Independent: 2243 (5%)
Others: 298 (0.7%)
MAJORITY: 14487 (32%)

2015 Result:
Conservative George Osborne 26,552 58.6 Increase 4.0
Labour David Pinto-Duschinsky 8,311 18.3 Increase 1.1
UKIP Stuart Hutton 4,871 10.8 N/A
Liberal Democrat Gareth Wilson 3,850 8.5 Decrease 14.1
Green Tina Rothery 1,714 3.8 N/A
Majority 18,241 40.3 Increase 8.3
Turnout 45,298 70.2 Decrease 0.4

Leave Vote: 45.63%

Sitting MP: George Osborne (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

9. Warrington North

2010 Result:
Conservative: 13364 (30.2%)
Labour: 20135 (45.5%)
Lib Dem: 9196 (20.8%)
Independent: 1516 (3.4%)
MAJORITY: 6771 (15.3%)

2015 Result:
Labour Helen Jones 21,720 47.8 +2.3
Conservative Richard Short 12,797 28.2 -2.1
UKIP Trevor Nicholls 7,757 17.1 N/A
Liberal Democrat Stefan Krizanac 1,881 4.1 −16.7
Green Sarah Hayes 1,264 2.8 N/A
Majority 8,923 19.6
Turnout 45,419 62.5

Leave Vote: 58.07%

Sitting MP: Helen Jones (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

10. Warrington South

2010 Result:
Conservative: 19641 (35.8%)
Labour: 18088 (33%)
Lib Dem: 15094 (27.5%)
Green: 427 (0.8%)
UKIP: 1624 (3%)
MAJORITY: 1553 (2.8%)

2015 Result:
Conservative David Mowat 25,928 43.7 +7.9
Labour Nick Bent 23,178 39.1 +6.1
UKIP Mal Lingley 4,909 8.3 +5.3
Liberal Democrat Bob Barr 3,335 5.6 -21.9
Green Stephanie Davies 1,765 3.0 +2.2
TUSC Kevin Bennett 238 0.4 +0.4
Majority 2,750 4.6 +1.8
Turnout 59,353 69.4 +1.2

Sitting MP: David Mowat (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

11. Weaver Vale

2010 Result:
Conservative: 16953 (38.5%)
Labour: 15962 (36.3%)
Lib Dem: 8196 (18.6%)
BNP: 1063 (2.4%)
Green: 338 (0.8%)
UKIP: 1018 (2.3%)
Independent: 270 (0.6%)
Others: 190 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 991 (2.3%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Graham Evans 20,227 43.2 +4.6
Labour Julia Tickridge 19,421 41.4 +5.2
UKIP Amos Wright 4,547 9.7 +7.4
Liberal Democrat Mary Di Mauro 1,395 3.0 −15.7
Green Chris Copeman 1,183 2.5 +1.8
TUSC Joseph Whyte 94 0.2 +0.2
Majority 806 1.7 -0.6
Turnout 46,867 68.5 -2.4

Leave Vote: 50.55%

Sitting MP: Graham Evans (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Two wafer thin majorities for Graham Evans. I suspect he’ll enjoy something north of 4,000 this time.

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General Election Predictions

General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 23. Shropshire

29 Apr 2017 at 16:37

SHROPSHIRE

Seats: 5
Current Political Makeup: Con 5
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 5

1. Ludlow

2010 Result:
Conservative: 25720 (52.8%)
Labour: 3272 (6.7%)
Lib Dem: 15971 (32.8%)
BNP: 1016 (2.1%)
Green: 447 (0.9%)
UKIP: 2127 (4.4%)
Others: 179 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 9749 (20%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Philip Dunne 26,093 54.3 +1.5
UKIP David Kelly10 7,164 14.9 +10.5
Liberal Democrat Charlotte Barnes11 6,469 13.5 -19.3
Labour Simon Slater12 5,902 12.3 +5.6
Green Janet Phillips13 2,435 5.1 +4.1
Majority 18,929 39.4
Turnout 48,063 72.4

Leave Vote: 57.88%

Sitting MP: Philip Dunne (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

2. North Shropshire

2010 Result:
Conservative: 26692 (51.5%)
Labour: 9406 (18.1%)
Lib Dem: 10864 (20.9%)
BNP: 1667 (3.2%)
Green: 808 (1.6%)
UKIP: 2432 (4.7%)
MAJORITY: 15828 (30.5%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Owen Paterson 27,041 51.5 0
Labour Graeme Currie 10,457 19.9 +1.8
UKIP Andrea Allen7 9,262 17.6 +12.9
Liberal Democrat Tom Thornhill 3,184 6.0 -14.9
Green Duncan Kerr8 2,575 4.9 +3.3
Majority 16,584 31.6 0
Turnout 52,483 67.6 +0.9

Leave Vote: 59.85%

Sitting MP: Owen Paterson (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Safe seat.

3. Shrewsbury & Atcham

2010 Result:
Conservative: 23313 (43.9%)
Labour: 10915 (20.6%)
Lib Dem: 15369 (29%)
BNP: 1168 (2.2%)
Green: 565 (1.1%)
UKIP: 1627 (3.1%)
Others: 88 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 7944 (15%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Daniel Kawczynski 24,628 45.5 +1.6
Labour Laura Davies 15,063 27.8 +7.3
UKIP Suzanne Evans 7,813 14.4 +11.4
Liberal Democrat Christine Tinker 4,268 7.9 -21.1
Green Emma Bullard 2,247 4.2 +3.1
Children of the Atom Stirling McNeillie 83 0.2 N/A
Majority 9,565 17.7
Turnout 54,102 70.8 +1.0

Leave Vote: 52.92%

Sitting MP: Daniel Kawczynski (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

4. Telford

2010 Result:
Conservative: 14996 (36.3%)
Labour: 15974 (38.7%)
Lib Dem: 6399 (15.5%)
BNP: 1513 (3.7%)
UKIP: 2428 (5.9%)
MAJORITY: 978 (2.4%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Lucy Allan8 16,094 39.6 +3.3
Labour David Wright 15,364 37.8 −0.9
UKIP Denis Allen 7,330 18.0 +12.2
Green Peter Hawkins 930 2.3 +2.3
Liberal Democrat Ian Croll 927 2.3 −13.2
Majority 730 1.8
Turnout 40,645 61.4

Sitting MP: Lucy Allan (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Very narrow win for Lucy Allan last time, but she has proved to be a controversial choice. There were moves to deselect her. Her fate will be determined by national swings rather than local ones.

5. The Wrekin

2010 Result:
Conservative: 21922 (47.7%)
Labour: 12472 (27.1%)
Lib Dem: 8019 (17.4%)
BNP: 1505 (3.3%)
UKIP: 2050 (4.5%)
MAJORITY: 9450 (20.6%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Mark Pritchard 22,579 49.7 +2.0
Labour Katrina Gilman 11,836 26.0 -1.1
UKIP Jill Seymour 7,620 16.8 +12.3
Liberal Democrat Rod Keyes 1,959 4.3 -13.1
Green Cath Edwards10 1,443 3.2 +3.2
Majority 10,743 23.6 +3.0
Turnout 45,437 68.9 -1.2

Leave Vote: 59.32%

Sitting MP: Mark Pritchard (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

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General Election Predictions

General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 22. Yorkshire West

29 Apr 2017 at 15:03

WEST YORKSHIRE

Seats: 22
Current Political Makeup: Con 7, Lab 14, Lib 1
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 11, Lab, 10, Lib 1

1. Batley & Spen

2010 Result:
Conservative: 17159 (33.6%)
Labour: 21565 (42.2%)
Lib Dem: 8095 (15.8%)
BNP: 3685 (7.2%)
Green: 605 (1.2%)
MAJORITY: 4406 (8.6%)

2015 Result:
Labour Jo Cox 21,826 43.2 +1.7
Conservative Imtiaz Ameen 15,769 31.2 −1.8
UKIP Aleks Lukic 9,080 18.0 N/A
Liberal Democrat John Lawson 2,396 4.7 −11.1
Green Ian Bullock 1,232 2.4 +1.3
TUSC Dawn Wheelhouse 123 0.2 N/A
Patriotic Socialist Karl Varley 53 0.1 N/A
Majority 6,057 12.0
Turnout 50,479 64.4

2016 By Election Result:
Labour Tracy Brabin 17,506 85.8 +42.6
English Democrat Therese Muchewicz 969 4.8 N/A
BNP David Furness 548 2.7 N/A
Independent Garry Kitchin 517 2.5 N/A
English Independence Corbyn Anti 241 1.2 N/A
Liberty GB Jack Buckby 220 1.0 N/A
Independent Henry Mayhew 153 0.8 N/A
Independent Waqas Ali Khan 118 0.6 N/A
National Front Richard Edmonds 87 0.4 N/A
One Love Ankit Love 34 0.2 N/A
Majority 16,537 81.0
Turnout 20,393 25.8

Leave Vote: 59.62%

Sitting MP: Tracey Brabin (Lab)
Prediction: Conservative gain

Held by Labour since 1997 but a Conservative seat between 1983 and 1997 with Elizabeth Peacock. This seat goes Conservative when the Conservatives win big. However, it’s difficult to factor in the effect of the circumstances of the by-election to make a definite prediction.

2. Bradford East

2010 Result:
Conservative: 10860 (26.8%)
Labour: 13272 (32.8%)
Lib Dem: 13637 (33.7%)
BNP: 1854 (4.6%)
Independent: 375 (0.9%)
Others: 459 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 365 (0.9%)

2015 Result:
Labour Imran Hussain 19,312 46.6 +13.8
Liberal Democrat David Ward 12,228 29.5 -4.2
Conservative Iftikhar Ahmed 4,682 11.3 -15.5
UKIP Owais Rajput 4,103 9.9 N/A
Green David Stevens 871 2.1 N/A
British Democratic James Lewthwaite 210 0.5 N/A
Majority 7,084 17.1 +16.2
Turnout 41,406 62.6 +0.5

Leave Vote: 55.62%

Sitting MP: Imran Hussain (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

David Ward has been sacked as LibDem candidate. If he had been standing it might have been possible to argue for a LibDem gain here. Not now, though.

3. Bradford South

2010 Result:
Conservative: 11060 (29.1%)
Labour: 15682 (41.3%)
Lib Dem: 6948 (18.3%)
BNP: 2651 (7%)
UKIP: 1339 (3.5%)
Others: 315 (0.8%)
MAJORITY: 4622 (12.2%)

2015 Result:
Labour Judith Cummins 16,328 43.4 +2.2
Conservative Tanya Graham 9,878 26.3 −2.8
UKIP Jason Smith 9,057 24.1 +20.6
Green Andy Robinson 1,243 3.3 N/A
Liberal Democrat Andrew Tear 1,094 2.9 −15.4
Majority 6,450 17.2
Turnout 37,600 59.1

Leave Vote: 63.56%

Sitting MP: Judith Cummins (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Hard to see anything other than a Labour hold here. The seat has never been anything other than Labour, and yet, and yet… If the UKIP vote collapsed and much of it went to the Tories, you never know. A very outside bet, though.

4. Bradford West

2010 Result:
Conservative: 12638 (31.1%)
Labour: 18401 (45.3%)
Lib Dem: 4732 (11.7%)
BNP: 1370 (3.4%)
Green: 940 (2.3%)
UKIP: 812 (2%)
Respect: 1245 (3.1%)
Others: 438 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 5763 (14.2%)

BY-ELECTION
George Galloway (Respect) 18341 55.9% (52.8%)
Imran Hussain (Labour) 8201 25% (-20.3%)
Jackie Whiteley (Conservative) 2746 8.4% (-22.7%)
Jeanette Sunderland (Liberal Democrat) 1505 4.6% (-7.1%)
Sonja McNally (UKIP) 1085 3.3% (
1.3%)
Dawud Islam (Green) 481 1.5% (-0.8%)
Neil Craig (Democratic Nationalists) 344 1% (-0.1%)
Howling Laud Hope (Loony) 111 0.3% (n/a)
MAJORITY 10140 30.9%
Turnout 50% (-14.9%)

2015 Result:
Naz Shah Labour 19,977 49.6 +24.6
George Galloway Respect 8,557 21.2 -34.7
George Grant Conservative 6,160 15.3 +6.9
Harry Boota UKIP 3,140 7.8 +4.5
Alun Griffiths Liberal Democrat 1,173 2.9 −1.7
Celia Hickson Green 1,085 2.7 +1.2
James Kirkcaldy Independent 100 0.2 N/A
Therese Muchewicz English Democrat 98 0.2 N/A
Majority: 11,420 (28.3%)
Swing: 29.7% from Respect to Lab

Leave Vote: 46.37%

Sitting MP: Naz Shah (Lab)
Prediction: Lab hold

5. Calder Valley

2010 Result:
Conservative: 20397 (39.4%)
Labour: 13966 (27%)
Lib Dem: 13037 (25.2%)
BNP: 1823 (3.5%)
Green: 858 (1.7%)
UKIP: 1173 (2.3%)
English Dem: 157 (0.3%)
Independent: 194 (0.4%)
Others: 175 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 6431 (12.4%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Craig Whittaker 23,354 43.6 +4.2
Labour Josh Fenton-Glynn 18,927 35.4 +8.4
UKIP Paul Rogan 5,950 11.1 +8.8
Liberal Democrat Alisdair McGregor 2,666 5.0 −20.2
Green Jenny Shepherd 2,090 3.9 +2.2
Yorkshire First Rod Sutcliffe 389 0.7 +0.7
World Peace Through Song Joe Stead 165 0.3 +0.3
Majority 4,427 8.3 −4.1
Turnout 53,541 68.9 +1.6

Leave Vote: 51.5%

Sitting MP: Craig Whittaker (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

6. Colne Valley

2010 Result:
Conservative: 20440 (37%)
Labour: 14589 (26.4%)
Lib Dem: 15603 (28.2%)
BNP: 1893 (3.4%)
Green: 867 (1.6%)
UKIP: 1163 (2.1%)
TUSC: 741 (1.3%)
MAJORITY: 4837 (8.7%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Jason McCartney 25,246 44.4 +7.5
Labour Jane East 19,868 35.0 +8.6
UKIP Melanie Roberts 5,734 10.1 +8.0
Liberal Democrat Cahal Burke 3,407 6.0 −22.2
Green Chas Ball 1,919 3.4 +1.8
Yorkshire First Paul Salveson 572 1.0 N/A
Independent Melodie Staniforth 54 0.1 N/A
Majority 5,378 9.5
Turnout 56,800 68.8

Leave Vote: 50.05%

Sitting MP: Jason McCartney (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

7. Dewsbury

2010 Result:
Conservative: 18898 (35%)
Labour: 17372 (32.2%)
Lib Dem: 9150 (16.9%)
BNP: 3265 (6%)
Green: 849 (1.6%)
English Dem: 661 (1.2%)
Independent: 3813 (7.1%)
MAJORITY: 1526 (2.8%)

2015 Result:
Labour Paula Sherriff 22,406 41.8 +9.6
Conservative Simon Reevell 20,955 39.1 +4.1
UKIP Mark Thackray 6,649 12.4 N/A
Liberal Democrat Ednan Hussain 1,924 3.6 −13.4
Green Adrian Cruden 1,366 2.5 +1.0
Yorkshire First Richard Carter 236 0.4 N/A
Christian Peoples Steve Hakes 94 0.2 N/A
Majority 1,451 2.7 N/A
Turnout 53,630 67.2 −1.3

Leave Vote: 57.15%

Sitting MP: Paula Sherriff (Lab)
Prediction: Conservative gain

This seat went Tory in 2010 but flipped back to Labour in 2015. It would be surprising if it didn’t flip back this time.

8. Elmet & Rothwell

2010 Result:
Conservative: 23778 (42.6%)
Labour: 19257 (34.5%)
Lib Dem: 9109 (16.3%)
BNP: 1802 (3.2%)
UKIP: 1593 (2.9%)
Independent: 250 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 4521 (8.1%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Alec Shelbrooke 27,978 48.4 +5.8
Labour Veronica King 19,488 33.7 -0.8
UKIP Paul Spivey 6,430 11.1 +8.3
Liberal Democrat Stewart Golton 2,640 4.6 -11.8
Green Dave Brooks 1,261 2.2 +2.2
Majority 8,490 14.7 +6.6
Turnout 57,797 73.0 +1.2

Leave Vote: 56.79%

Sitting MP: Alec Shelbrooke
Prediction: Conservative hold

9. Halifax

2010 Result:
Conservative: 14806 (34%)
Labour: 16278 (37.4%)
Lib Dem: 8335 (19.1%)
BNP: 2760 (6.3%)
UKIP: 654 (1.5%)
Others: 722 (1.7%)
MAJORITY: 1472 (3.4%)

2015 Result:
Labour Holly Lynch 17,506 40.0 +2.6
Conservative Philip Allott 17,078 39.0 +5.0
UKIP Liz Phillips 5,621 12.8 +11.3
Liberal Democrat Mohammad Ilyas 1,629 3.7 -15.4
Green Gary Scott 1,142 2.6 N/A
Respect Asama Javed 465 1.1 N/A
Christian Trevor Bendrien 312 0.7 N/A
Majority 428 1.0 -2.4
Turnout 43,753 62.1 +0.2

Leave Vote: 60.7%

Sitting MP: Holly Lynch (Lab)
Prediction: Conservative gain

The Tories had high hopes here in the last two elections but they didn’t quite manage it. They will this time.

10. Hemsworth

2010 Result:
Conservative: 10662 (24.3%)
Labour: 20506 (46.8%)
Lib Dem: 5667 (12.9%)
BNP: 3059 (7%)
Independent: 3946 (9%)
MAJORITY: 9844 (22.5%)

2015 Result:
Labour Jon Trickett 21,772 51.3 +4.6
Conservative Christopher Pearson 9,694 22.9 -1.5
UKIP Steve Ashton 8,565 20.2 +20.2
Liberal Democrat Mary MacQueen 1,357 3.2 -9.7
Yorkshire First Martin Roberts 1,018 2.4 +2.4
Majority 12,078 28.5
Turnout 42,406 58.3

Leave Vote: 67.35%

Sitting MP: Jon Trickett (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

11. Huddersfield

2010 Result:
Conservative: 11253 (27.8%)
Labour: 15725 (38.8%)
Lib Dem: 10023 (24.7%)
BNP: 1563 (3.9%)
Green: 1641 (4%)
TUSC: 319 (0.8%)
MAJORITY: 4472 (11%)

2015 Result:
Labour Co-op Barry Sheerman 18,186 44.9 +6.1
Conservative Itrat Ali 10,841 26.8 -1.0
UKIP Rob Butler 5,948 14.7 +14.7
Green Andrew Cooper 2,798 6.9 +2.9
Liberal Democrat Zulfiqar Ali 2,365 5.8 -18.9
TUSC Mike Forster 340 0.8 +0.1
Majority 7,345 18.1
Turnout 40,478 62.0

Leave Vote: 51.85%
Sitting MP: Barry Sheerman (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

If the Tories win a 150 seat landslide this seat may well fall to them, but not otherwise.

12. Keighley

2010 Result:
Conservative: 20003 (41.9%)
Labour: 17063 (35.8%)
Lib Dem: 7059 (14.8%)
BNP: 1962 (4.1%)
UKIP: 1470 (3.1%)
Others: 135 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 2940 (6.2%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Kris Hopkins 21,766 44.3 +2.4
Labour John Grogan 18,713 38.1 +2.3
UKIP Paul Latham 5,662 11.5 +8.4
Green Ros Brown 1,661 3.4 N/A
Liberal Democrat Gareth Epps 1,321 2.7 −12.1
Majority 3,053 6.2
Turnout 49,123 71.3 -1.1

Sitting MP: Kris Hopkins (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

13. Leeds Central

2010 Result:
Conservative: 7541 (20.2%)
Labour: 18434 (49.3%)
Lib Dem: 7789 (20.8%)
BNP: 3066 (8.2%)
Independent: 409 (1.1%)
Others: 155 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 10645 (28.5%)

2015 Result:
Labour Hilary Benn 24,758 55.0 +5.7
Conservative Nicola Wilson 7,791 17.3 -2.9
UKIP Luke Senior 7,082 15.7 N/A
Green Michael Hayton 3,558 7.9 N/A
Liberal Democrat Emma Spriggs 1,529 3.4 -17.4
TUSC Liz Kitching 330 0.7 +0.7
Majority 16,967 37.7
Turnout 45,048 55.1

Leave Vote: 45.96%

Sitting MP: Hilary Benn (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

14. Leeds East

2010 Result:
Conservative: 8763 (23.2%)
Labour: 19056 (50.4%)
Lib Dem: 6618 (17.5%)
BNP: 2947 (7.8%)
Others: 429 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 10293 (27.2%)

2015 Result:
Labour Richard Burgon 20,530 53.7 +3.4
Conservative Ryan Stephenson 7,997 20.9 -2.2
UKIP Mark Maniatt 7,256 19.0 +19.0
Liberal Democrat Ed Sanderson 1,296 3.4 -14.1
Green Kate Bisson 1,117 2.9 +2.9
Majority 12,533 32.8
Turnout 38,196 59.0

Leave Vote: 61.44%

Sitting MP: Richard Burgon (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

15. Leeds North East

2010 Result:
Conservative: 15742 (33.1%)
Labour: 20287 (42.7%)
Lib Dem: 9310 (19.6%)
BNP: 758 (1.6%)
UKIP: 842 (1.8%)
Others: 596 (1.3%)
MAJORITY: 4545 (9.6%)

2015 Result:
Labour Fabian Hamilton 23,137 47.9 +5.2
Conservative Simon Wilson 15,887 32.9 -0.2
UKIP Warren Hendon 3,706 7.7 +5.9
Liberal Democrat Aqila Choudhry 2,569 5.3 -14.3
Green Emma Carter 2,541 5.3 N/A
Alliance for Green Socialism Celia Foote 451 0.9 -0.3
Majority 7,250 15.0 +5.4
Turnout 48,291 69.9 -0.1

Leave Vote: 37.42%

Sitting MP: Fabian Hamilton (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

This was last a Tory seat in 1992. Just can’t see it happening for the Tories here barring an extreme result.

16. Leeds North West

2010 Result:
Conservative: 11550 (26.6%)
Labour: 9132 (21%)
Lib Dem: 20653 (47.5%)
BNP: 766 (1.8%)
Green: 508 (1.2%)
UKIP: 600 (1.4%)
English Dem: 153 (0.4%)
Others: 121 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 9103 (20.9%)

2015 Result:
Liberal Democrat Greg Mulholland 15,948 36.8 -10.7
Labour Alex Sobel 13,041 30.1 +9.1
Conservative Alex Story 8,083 18.6 -7.9
Green Tim Goodall 3,042 7.0 +5.8
UKIP Julian Metcalfe 2,997 6.9 +5.5
Yorkshire First Bob Buxton 143 0.3 N/A
Alliance for Green Socialism Mike Davies 79 0.2 -0.1
Above and Beyond Mark Flanagan 24 0.1 N/A
Majority 2,907 6.7
Turnout 43,357 70.0

Leave Vote: 35.4%

Sitting MP: Greg Mulholland (LibDem)
Prediction: LibDem hold

17. Leeds West

2010 Result:
Conservative: 7641 (19.7%)
Labour: 16389 (42.3%)
Lib Dem: 9373 (24.2%)
BNP: 2377 (6.1%)
Green: 1832 (4.7%)
UKIP: 1140 (2.9%)
MAJORITY: 7016 (18.1%)

2015 Result:
Labour Rachel Reeves 18,456 48.0 +5.7
Conservative Alex Pierre-Traves 7,729 20.1 +0.4
UKIP Anne Murgatroyd 7,104 18.5 +15.5
Green Andrew Pointon 3,217 8.4 +3.6
Liberal Democrat Laura Coyle 1,495 3.9 −20.3
CISTA Matthew West 217 0.6 +0.6
TUSC Ben Mayor 205 0.5 +0.5
Majority 10,727 27.9 +9.8
Turnout 38,423 59.2 +1.7

Leave Vote: 53.27%

Sitting MP: Rachel Reeves
Prediction: Labour hold

18. Morley & Outwood

2010 Result:
Conservative: 17264 (35.3%)
Labour: 18365 (37.6%)
Lib Dem: 8186 (16.8%)
BNP: 3535 (7.2%)
UKIP: 1506 (3.1%)
MAJORITY: 1101 (2.3%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Andrea Jenkyns 18,776 38.9 +3.6
Labour Co-op Ed Balls 18,354 38.0 +0.4
UKIP David Dews 7,951 16.5 +13.4
Liberal Democrat Rebecca Taylor 1,426 3.0 −13.8
Green Martin Hemingway 1,264 2.6 N/A
Yorkshire First Arnie Craven 479 1.0 N/A
Majority 422 0.9 N/A
Turnout 48,250 63.3 -2.5

Leave Vote: 59.82%

Sitting MP: Andrea Jenkyns (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

19. Normanton, Pontefract & Castleford

2010 Result:
Conservative: 11314 (24.5%)
Labour: 22293 (48.2%)
Lib Dem: 7585 (16.4%)
BNP: 3864 (8.4%)
Independent: 1183 (2.6%)
MAJORITY: 10979 (23.7%)

2015 Result:
Labour Yvette Cooper 25,213 54.9 +6.7
UKIP Nathan Garbutt 9,785 21.3 N/A
Conservative Beth Prescott 9,569 20.8 −3.6
Liberal Democrat Edward McMillan-Scott 1,330 2.9 −13.5
Majority 15,428 33.6 +9.9
Turnout 45,897 55.6 -0.6

Leave Vote: 70.34%

Sitting MP: Yvette Cooper (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

20. Pudsey

2010 Result:
Conservative: 18874 (38.5%)
Labour: 17215 (35.1%)
Lib Dem: 10224 (20.8%)
BNP: 1549 (3.2%)
UKIP: 1221 (2.5%)
MAJORITY: 1659 (3.4%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Stuart Andrew 23,637 46.4 +8.0
Labour Jamie Hanley 19,136 37.6 +2.5
UKIP Roger Tattersall 4,689 9.2 +6.7
Liberal Democrat Ryk Downes 1,926 3.8 -17.0
Green Claire Allen 1,539 3.0 +3.0
Majority 4,501 8.8 +5.4
Turnout 50,927 72.2 +1.3

Leave Vote: 48.58%

Sitting MP: Stuart Andrew (Con)
Prediction: Narrow Conservative hold

21. Shipley

2010 Result:
Conservative: 24002 (48.6%)
Labour: 14058 (28.4%)
Lib Dem: 9890 (20%)
Green: 1477 (3%)
MAJORITY: 9944 (20.1%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Philip Davies 25,269 50.0 +1.4
Labour Steve Clapcote 15,645 31.0 +2.5
UKIP Waqas Khan 4,479 8.9 N/A
Green Kevin Warnes 2,657 5.3 +2.3
Liberal Democrat Andrew Martin 1,949 3.9 -16.2
Yorkshire First Darren Hill 543 1.1 N/A
Majority 9,624 19.0
Turnout 50,542 71.7

Leave Vote: 49.71%

Sitting MP: Philip Davies (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

22. Wakefield

2010 Result:
Conservative: 15841 (35.6%)
Labour: 17454 (39.3%)
Lib Dem: 7256 (16.3%)
BNP: 2581 (5.8%)
Green: 873 (2%)
Independent: 439 (1%)
MAJORITY: 1613 (3.6%)

2015 Result:
Labour Mary Creagh 17,301 40.3 +1.0
Conservative Antony Calvert 14,688 34.2 −1.5
UKIP Alan Hazelhurst 7,862 18.3 +18.3
Liberal Democrat Finbarr Cronin 1,483 3.5 −12.9
Green Rebecca Thackray 1,069 2.5 +0.5
TUSC Mick Griffiths 287 0.7 +0.7
CISTA Elliot Barr 283 0.7 +0.7
Majority 2,613 6.1
Turnout 42,973 60.9

Leave Vote: 62.57%

Sitting MP: Mary Creagh (Lab)
Prediction: Conservative gain

I’m afraid Parliament will be saying goodbye to one of its nicest MPs.

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BBC Radio Norfolk: Iain appears on Treasure Quest

On the afternoon of the Lammas village Christmas Fayre, Iain appears live from the village hall on Radio Norfolk's Treasure Quest programme. Aha!

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General Election Predictions

General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 21. West Glamorgan

29 Apr 2017 at 14:10

WEST GLAMORGAN

Seats: 5
Current Political Makeup: Con 1, Lab 4
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 1, Lab 4

1. Aberavon

2010 Result:
Conservative: 4411 (14.2%)
Labour: 16073 (51.9%)
Lib Dem: 5034 (16.3%)
Plaid Cymru: 2198 (7.1%)
BNP: 1276 (4.1%)
UKIP: 489 (1.6%)
Independent: 919 (3%)
Others: 558 (1.8%)
MAJORITY: 11039 (35.7%)

2015 Result:
Labour Stephen Kinnock 15,416 48.9 −3.0
UKIP Peter Bush 4,971 15.8 +14.2
Conservative Edward Yi He 3,742 11.9 −2.4
Plaid Cymru Duncan Higgitt 3,663 11.6 +4.5
Liberal Democrats Helen Clarke 1,397 4.4 −11.8
Independent Captain Beany 1,137 3.6 +1.8
Green Jonathan Tier 711 2.3 n/a
Socialist Labour Andrew Jordan 352 1.1 n/a
TUSC Owen Herbert 134 0.4 n/a
Majority 10,445 33.1 −2.6
Turnout 31,523 63.3 +2.3

Sitting MP: Stephen Kinnock (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

2. Gower

2010 Result:
Conservative: 13333 (32%)
Labour: 16016 (38.4%)
Lib Dem: 7947 (19.1%)
Plaid Cymru: 2760 (6.6%)
BNP: 963 (2.3%)
UKIP: 652 (1.6%)
MAJORITY: 2683 (6.4%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Byron Davies 15,862 37.1 +5.1
Labour Liz Evans 15,835 37.0 -1.4
UKIP Colin Beckett 4,773 11.2 +9.6
Plaid Cymru Darren Thomas 3,051 7.1 +0.5
Liberal Democrat Mike Sheehan 1,552 3.6 −15.4
Green Julia Marshall 1,161 2.7 N/A
Monster Raving Loony Baron Barnes Von Claptrap 253 0.6 N/A
Independent Steve Roberts 168 0.4 N/A
TUSC Mark Evans 103 0.2 N/A
Majority 27 0.1
Turnout 42,758 69.2 +1.7

Sitting MP: Byron Davies (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

A surprise Tory gain in 2015 it’s difficult to see Labour winning it back given the current state of the polls in Wales.

3. Neath

2010 Result:
Conservative: 4847 (13.1%)
Labour: 17172 (46.3%)
Lib Dem: 5535 (14.9%)
Plaid Cymru: 7397 (19.9%)
BNP: 1342 (3.6%)
UKIP: 829 (2.2%)
MAJORITY: 9775 (26.3%)

2015 Result:
Labour Christina Rees 16,270 43.8 −2.4
Plaid Cymru Daniel Thomas 6,722 18.1 −1.8
UKIP Richard Pritchard 6,094 16.4 +14.2
Conservative Ed Hastie 5,691 15.3 +2.3
Green Catrin Brock 1,185 3.2 N/A
Liberal Democrat Clare Bentley 1,173 3.2 −11.8
Majority 9,548 25.7 −0.6
Turnout 37,135 66.2 +1.3

Sitting MP: Christina Rees (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

4. Swansea East

2010 Result:
Conservative: 4823 (14.8%)
Labour: 16819 (51.5%)
Lib Dem: 5981 (18.3%)
Plaid Cymru: 2181 (6.7%)
BNP: 1715 (5.2%)
Green: 318 (1%)
UKIP: 839 (2.6%)
MAJORITY: 10838 (33.2%)

2015 Result:
Labour Carolyn Harris 17,807 53.0 +1.5
UKIP Clifford Johnson 5,779 17.2 +14.6
Conservative Altaf Hussain 5,142 15.3 +0.5
Plaid Cymru Dic Jones 3,498 10.4 +3.7
Liberal Democrat Amina Jamal 1,392 4.1 −14.2
Majority 12,028 35.8 +2.6
Turnout 33,618 58.0 +3.4

Sitting MP: Carolyn Harris (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

5. Swansea West

2010 Result:
Conservative: 7407 (20.8%)
Labour: 12335 (34.7%)
Lib Dem: 11831 (33.2%)
Plaid Cymru: 1437 (4%)
BNP: 910 (2.6%)
Green: 404 (1.1%)
UKIP: 716 (2%)
TUSC: 179 (0.5%)
Independent: 374 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 504 (1.4%

2015 Result:
Labour Co-op Geraint Davies 1 14,967 42.6 +7.9
Conservative Emma Lane 7,931 22.6 +1.7
UKIP Martyn Ford 4,744 13.5 +11.5
Liberal Democrat Chris Holley 3,178 9.0 -24.2
Plaid Cymru Harri Roberts 2,266 6.4 +2.4
Green Ashley Wakeling 1,784 5.1 +4.0
TUSC Ronnie Job6 159 0.5 -0.1
Independent Maxwell Rosser 78 0.2 n/a
Socialist (GB) Brian Johnson 7 49 0.1 n/a
Majority 7,036 20.0 +18.6
Turnout 35,156 59.8 +1.8

Sitting MP: Geraint Davies (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

The LibDems came within a whisker of winning this seat in 2010 but it’s now the Conservatives who might well think they might have a chance. A very outside one, though.

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE

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Iain is Interviewed by Alex Foster of LibDem Voice

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General Election Predictions

General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 20. London South

28 Apr 2017 at 21:59

LONDON SOUTH

Seats: 9
Current Political Makeup: Con 2, Lab 6, LibDem 1
Predicted Political Makeup after June 8: Con 4, Lab 5

Camberwell & Peckham

2010 Result:
Conservative: 6080 (13%)
Labour: 27619 (59.2%)
Lib Dem: 10432 (22.4%)
Green: 1361 (2.9%)
English Dem: 435 (0.9%)
Independent: 93 (0.2%)
Others: 639 (1.4%)
MAJORITY: 17187 (36.8%)

2015 Result:
Labour Harriet Harman 32,614 63.3 +4.1
Conservative Naomi Newstead 6,790 13.2 +0.1
Green Amelia Womack 5,187 10.1 +7.1
Liberal Democrat Yahaya Kiyingi 2,580 5.0 −17.4
UKIP David Kurten 2,413 4.7 N/A
All People’s Party Prem Goyal 829 1.6 N/A
National Health Action Rebecca Fox 466 0.9 N/A
TUSC Nick Wrack 292 0.6 N/A
CISTA Alex Robertson 197 0.4 N/A
Workers Revolutionary Joshua Ogunleye 107 0.2 -0.3
Whig Felicity Anscomb 86 0.2 N/A
Majority 25,824 50.1 +11.3
Turnout 51,561 62.3 +3.0

Leave Vote: 31.48%

Sitting MP: Harriet Harman (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Carshalton & Wallington

2010 Result:
Conservative: 16920 (36.8%)
Labour: 4015 (8.7%)
Lib Dem: 22180 (48.3%)
BNP: 1100 (2.4%)
Green: 355 (0.8%)
UKIP: 1348 (2.9%)
MAJORITY: 5260 (11.5%)

2015 Result:
Liberal Democrat Tom Brake 16,603 34.9 −13.4
Conservative Matthew Maxwell-Scott 15,093 31.7 −5.1
Labour Siobhan Tate 7,150 15.0 +6.3
UKIP William Main-Ian 7,049 14.8 +11.9
Green Ross Hemingway 1,492 3.2 +2.4
Christian Peoples Ashley Dickenson 177 0.4 +0.4
National Front Richard Edmonds 49 0.1 +0.1
Majority 1,510 3.2 −8.3
Turnout 47,613 68.0 −1.0

Leave Vote: 56.26%

Sitting MP: Tom Brake (LibDem)
Prediction: Conservative gain

Somewhat charismatically challenged, Brake is nevertheless a very good constituency MP and this could seem him through, but there is a big vote for the Conservatives to eat into. Brake’s best hope is that the Greens don’t stand and Labour seeps votes to him.

Croydon Central

2010 Result:
Conservative: 19657 (39.4%)
Labour: 16688 (33.6%)
Lib Dem: 6553 (13.2%)
BNP: 1448 (2.9%)
Green: 581 (1.2%)
UKIP: 997 (2%)
Christian: 264 (0.5%)
Independent: 3239 (6.5%)
Others: 330 (0.7%)
MAJORITY: 2879 (5.8%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Gavin Barwell 22,753 43.0 +3.6
Labour Sarah Jones 22,588 42.7 +9.1
UKIP Peter Staveley 4,810 9.1 +7.1
Green Esther Sutton7 1,454 2.7 +1.6
Liberal Democrat James Fearnley 1,152 2.2 −11.0
TUSC April Ashley 127 0.2 N/A
Progressive Democracy Martin Camden 57 0.1 N/A
Majority 165 0.3 -5.91
Turnout 52,941 67.7 +2.2

Leave Vote: 48.73%

Sitting MP: Gavin Barwell (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Incumbency could be key here. Locally born and an assiduous MP, Barwell will be difficult to shift after 7 years.

Croydon North

2010 Result:
Conservative: 12466 (24.1%)
Labour: 28949 (56%)
Lib Dem: 7226 (14%)
Green: 1017 (2%)
UKIP: 891 (1.7%)
Respect: 272 (0.5%)
Christian: 586 (1.1%)
Independent: 111 (0.2%)
Others: 160 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 16481 (31.9%)

BY-ELECTION 2012
Steve Reed (Labour) 15898 64.7% (8.7%)
Andrew Stranack (Conservative) 4137 16.8% (-7.3%)
Winston McKenzie (UKIP) 1400 5.7% (
4%)
Marisha Ray (Liberal Democrat) 860 3.5% (-10.5%)
Shasha Khan (Green) 855 3.5% (1.5%)
Lee Jasper (Respect) 707 2.9% (
2.4%)
Stephen Hammond (Christian Peoples) 192 0.8% (n/a)
Richard Edmonds (National Front) 161 0.7% (n/a)
Ben Stevenson (Communist) 119 0.5% (+0.2%)
John Cartwright (Loony) 110 0.4% (n/a)
Simon Lane (911 was an inside job) 66 0.3% (n/a)
Robin Smith (Young Peoples) 63 0.3% (n/a)
MAJORITY 11755 47.9%
Turnout 26.5% (-34.1%)

2015 Result:
Labour Co-op Steve Reed 33,513 62.6 +6.6
Conservative Vidhi Mohan 12,149 22.7 -1.4
UKIP Winston McKenzie 2,899 5.4 +3.7
Green Shasha Khan 2,515 4.7 +2.7
Liberal Democrat Joanna Corbin 1,919 3.6 -10.4
TUSC Glen Hart 261 0.5 +0.5
Independent Lee Berks 141 0.3 +0.3
Communist Ben Stevenson 125 0.2 -0.1
Majority 21,364 39.9 -8
Turnout 53,522 62.3 +35.77

Leave Vote: 43.27%

Sitting MP: Steve Reed (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Croydon South

2010 Result:
Conservative: 28684 (50.9%)
Labour: 11287 (20%)
Lib Dem: 12866 (22.8%)
Green: 981 (1.7%)
UKIP: 2504 (4.4%)
MAJORITY: 15818 (28.1%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Chris Philp 31,448 54.5 +3.6
Labour Emily Benn 14,308 24.8 +4.8
UKIP Kathleen Garner 6,068 10.5 +6.1
Liberal Democrat Gill Hickson 3,448 6.0 -16.9
Green Peter Underwood 2,154 3.7 +2.0
Putting Croydon First! Mark Samuel 221 0.4 N/A
Class War Jon Bigger8 65 0.1 N/A
Majority 17,410 29.7 +1.6
Turnout 57,712 70.4 +1.1

Leave Vote: 45.31%

Sitting MP: Chris Philp (Con)
Prediction: Conservatuve hold

Dulwich & West Norwood

2010 Result:
Conservative: 10684 (22.2%)
Labour: 22461 (46.6%)
Lib Dem: 13096 (27.2%)
Green: 1266 (2.6%)
UKIP: 707 (1.5%)
MAJORITY: 9365 (19.4%)

2015 Result:
Labour Helen Hayes 27,772 54.1 +7.5
Conservative Resham Kotecha 11,650 22.7 +0.5
Liberal Democrat James Barber 5,055 9.8 -17.3
Green Rashid Nix 4,844 9.4 +6.8
UKIP Rathy Alagaratnam 1,606 3.1 +1.7
TUSC Steve Nally 248 0.5 N/A
Independent Robin Lambert 125 0.2 N/A
All People’s Party Amadu Kanumansa 62 0.1 N/A
Majority 16,122 31.4 +12.0
Turnout 51,362 67.1 +0.9

Leave Vote: 22.94%

Sitting MP: Helen Hayes (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Streatham

2010 Result:
Conservative: 8578 (18.3%)
Labour: 20037 (42.8%)
Lib Dem: 16778 (35.8%)
Green: 861 (1.8%)
English Dem: 229 (0.5%)
Christian: 237 (0.5%)
Others: 117 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 3259 (7%)

2015 Result:
Labour Chuka Umunna 26,474 53.0 +10.2
Conservative Kim Caddy 12,540 25.1 +6.8
Liberal Democrat Amna Ahmad 4,491 9.0 −26.8
Green Jonathan Bartley 4,421 8.9 +7.1
UKIP Bruce Machan 1,602 3.2 N/A
CISTA Artificial Beast 192 0.4 N/A
TUSC Unjum Mirza 164 0.3 N/A
Workers Revolutionary Deon Gayle 49 0.1 −0.2
Majority 13,934 27.9 +20.9
Turnout 49,933 63.1 +0.3

Leave Vote: 22.16%

Sitting MP: Chuka Umunna (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Tooting

2010 Result:
Conservative: 19514 (38.5%)
Labour: 22038 (43.5%)
Lib Dem: 7509 (14.8%)
Green: 609 (1.2%)
UKIP: 624 (1.2%)
Christian: 171 (0.3%)
Independent: 190 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 2524 (5%)

2015 Result:
Labour Sadiq Khan 25,263 47.2 +3.7
Conservative Dan Watkins 22,421 41.9 +3.4
Green Esther Obiri-Darko 2,201 4.1 +2.9
Liberal Democrat Philip Ling9 2,107 3.9 −10.9
UKIP Przemek Skwirczyński 1,537 2.9 +1.6
Majority 2,842 5.3 +0.3
Turnout 53,529 69.7 +1.1

2016 ByElection Result:
Labour Rosena Allin-Khan 17,894 55.9 +8.7
Conservative Dan Watkins 11,537 36.1 −5.8
Green Esther Obiri-Darko 830 2.6 −1.5
Liberal Democrat Alex Glassbrook 820 2.6 −1.3
UKIP Elizabeth Jones 507 1.6 −1.3
Christian Peoples Des Coke 164 0.5 +0.5
Monster Raving Loony Howling Laud Hope 54 0.2 +0.2
Independent Zirwa Javaid 30 0.1 +0.1
One Love Ankit Love 32 0.1 +0.1
Immigrants Political Party Akbar Ali Malik 44 0.1 +0.1
English Democrat Graham Moore 50 0.2 +0.2
Independent Zia Samadani 23 0.1 +0.1
Independent Smiley Smillie 5 0.0 +0.0
Give Me Back Elmo Bobby Smith 9 0.0 +0.0
Majority 6,357 19.9 +14.6
Turnout 31,763 42.5 −27.2

Leave Vote: 25.58%

Sitting MP: Rosena Allin-Khan (Lab)
Prediction: Conservative gain

This is one of those seats which the Conservatives have coveted for the last two elections. This time they may well get it.

Vauxhall

2010 Result:
Conservative: 9301 (21.5%)
Labour: 21498 (49.8%)
Lib Dem: 10847 (25.1%)
Green: 708 (1.6%)
English Dem: 289 (0.7%)
Christian: 200 (0.5%)
Others: 348 (0.8%)
MAJORITY: 10651 (24.7%)

2015 Result:
Labour Kate Hoey 25,778 53.8 +4.0
Conservative James Bellis 13,070 27.3 +5.7
Green Gulnar Hasnain 3,658 7.6 +6.0
Liberal Democrat Adrian Hyyrylainen-Trett 3,312 6.9 -18.2
UKIP Ace Nnorom 1,385 2.9 N/A
Pirate Mark Chapman 201 0.4 N/A
Left Unity Simon Hardy 188 0.4 N/A
CISTA Louis Jensen 164 0.3 N/A
Whig Waleed Ghani 103 0.2 N/A
Socialist (GB) Daniel Lambert 82 0.2 -0.2
Majority 12,708 26.5 +1.8
Turnout 47,941 58.3 +0.6

Leave Vote: 18.47%

Sitting MP: Kate Hoey (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE

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General Election Predictions

General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 19. Birmingham

28 Apr 2017 at 20:24

Birmingham

Seats: 9
Current Political Makeup: Lab 8
Predicted Political Makeup after June 8: Con 3, Lab 5

1. Birmingham Edgbaston

2010 Result:
Conservative: 15620 (37.6%)
Labour: 16894 (40.6%)
Lib Dem: 6387 (15.4%)
BNP: 1196 (2.9%)
Green: 469 (1.1%)
UKIP: 732 (1.8%)
Christian: 127 (0.3%)
Others: 146 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 1274 (3.1%)

2015 Result:
Labour Gisela Stuart 18,518 44.85 +4.21
Conservative Luke Evans12 15,812 38.29 +0.72
UKIP Graham Short13 4,154 10.06 +8.30
Green Philip Simpson 1,371 3.32 +2.19
Liberal Democrat Lee Dargue12 1,184 2.87 −12.49
Christian Gabriel Ukandu 163 0.39 +0.08
Independent Henna Rai 91 0.22 N/A
Majority 2,706 6.55 +3.49
Turnout 41,293 62.96 +2.34

Leave Vote: 43.75%

Sitting MP: Gisela Stuart (Lab)
Prediction: Conservative gain

The Tories have had their eye on this seat ever since 1997 but Gisela Stuart proved very difficult to shift. She’s standing down so I’d say this was a very likely Tory gain.

2. Birmingham Erdington

2010 Result:
Conservative: 11592 (32.6%)
Labour: 14869 (41.8%)
Lib Dem: 5742 (16.2%)
BNP: 1815 (5.1%)
UKIP: 842 (2.4%)
Christian: 217 (0.6%)
Independent: 240 (0.7%)
Others: 229 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 3277 (9.2%)

2015 Result:
Labour Jack Dromey 15,824 45.6 Increase 3.8
Conservative Robert Alden 10,695 30.8 Decrease 1.8
UKIP Andrew Garcarz 6,040 17.4 Increase 15.0
Liberal Democrat Ann Holtom 965 2.8 Decrease 13.4
Green Joe Belcher 948 2.7 N/A
TUSC Ted Woodley 212 0.6 N/A
Majority 5,129 14.8 Increase 5.6
Turnout 34,684 53.3 Decrease 0.2

Leave Vote: 58.48%

Sitting MP: Jack Dromey (Lab)
Prediction: Conservative gain

I think Jack Dromey is in real trouble here. A big leave vote, combined with nearly 7,000 UKIP votes up for grabs and the Tories must be hoping they can pull this one off.

3. Birmingham Hall Green

2010 Result:
Conservative: 7320 (15%)
Labour: 16039 (32.9%)
Lib Dem: 11988 (24.6%)
UKIP: 950 (1.9%)
Respect: 12240 (25.1%)
Independent: 190 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 3799 (7.8%)

2015 Result:
Labour Roger Godsiff 28,147 59.8 +24.9
Conservative James Bird 8,329 17.7 +2.7
Liberal Democrat Jerry Evans 5,459 11.6 —13.0
Green Elly Stanton 2,200 4.7 N/A
UKIP Rashpal Mondair 2,131 4.5 +2.6
Respect Shiraz Peer 780 1.7 —23.5
Majority 19,818 42.1 Increase 34.3
Turnout 47,046 61.6 Decrease 2.0

Leave Vote: 42.17%

Sitting MP: Rodger Godsiff (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

4. Birmingham Hodge Hill

2010 Result:
Conservative: 4936 (11.6%)
Labour: 22077 (52%)
Lib Dem: 11775 (27.7%)
BNP: 2333 (5.5%)
UKIP: 714 (1.7%)
Others: 637 (1.5%)
MAJORITY: 10302 (24.3%)

2015 Result:
Labour Liam Byrne 28,069 68.4 Increase 16.4
Conservative Kieran Mullan 4,707 11.5 Decrease 0.2
UKIP Albert Duffen 4,651 11.3 Increase 9.7
Liberal Democrat Phil Bennion 2,624 6.4 Decrease 21.3
Green Chris Nash 835 2.0 N/A
Communist Andy Chaffer 153 0.4 Increase 0.4
Majority 23,362 56.9 Increase 32.6
Turnout 41,039 54.5 Decrease 1.1

Leave Vote: 50.41%

Sitting MP: Liam Byrne (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

5. Birmingham Ladywood

2010 Result:
Conservative: 4277 (11.9%)
Labour: 19950 (55.7%)
Lib Dem: 9845 (27.5%)
Green: 859 (2.4%)
UKIP: 902 (2.5%)
MAJORITY: 10105 (28.2%)

2015 Result:
Labour Shabana Mahmood 26,444 73.6 Increase 18.0
Conservative Isabel Sigmac 4,576 12.7 Increase 0.8
UKIP Clair Braund 1,805 5.0 Increase 2.5
Green Margaret Okole 1,501 4.2 Increase 1.8
Liberal Democrat Shazad Iqbal 1,374 3.8 Decrease 23.6
Liberty GB Tim Burton 216 0.6 N/A
Majority 21,868 60.9 Increase 32.7
Turnout 35,916 52.7 Increase 4

Sitting MP: Shabana Mahmood (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

6. Birmingham Northfield

2010 Result:
Conservative: 14059 (33.6%)
Labour: 16841 (40.3%)
Lib Dem: 6550 (15.7%)
BNP: 2290 (5.5%)
Green: 406 (1%)
UKIP: 1363 (3.3%)
Others: 305 (0.7%)
MAJORITY: 2782 (6.7%)

2015 Result:
Labour Richard Burden 17,673 41.6 Increase 1.3
Conservative Rachel Maclean 15,164 35.7 Increase 2.1
UKIP Keith Rowe 7,106 16.7 Increase 13.5
Liberal Democrat Steve Haynes 1,349 3.2 Decrease 12.5
Green Anna Masters10 1,169 2.8 Increase 1.8
Majority 2,509 5.9
Turnout 42,461 59.4 Increase 0.8

Sitting MP: Richard Burden (Lab)
Prediction: Conservative gain

This used to be a Conservative seat and it’s about to be again.

7. Birmingham Perry Bar

2010 Result:
Conservative: 8960 (21.3%)
Labour: 21142 (50.3%)
Lib Dem: 9234 (22%)
UKIP: 1675 (4%)
Christian: 507 (1.2%)
Others: 527 (1.3%)
MAJORITY: 11908 (28.3%)

Leave Vote: 59.40%

2015 Result:
Labour Khalid Mahmood 23,697 57.4 Increase 7.1
Conservative Charlotte Hodivala 8,869 21.5 Increase 0.2
UKIP Harjinder Singh 5,032 12.2 Increase 8.2
Liberal Democrat Arjun Singh 2,001 4.8 Decrease 17.1
Green James Lovatt 1,330 3.2 N/A
TUSC Robert Punton 331 0.8 N/A
Majority 14,828 35.9
Turnout 41,260 59.0

Leave Vote: 54.14%

Sitting MP: Khalid Mahmood (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

8. Birmingham Selly Oak

2010 Result:
Conservative: 14468 (31.1%)
Labour: 17950 (38.5%)
Lib Dem: 10371 (22.3%)
BNP: 1820 (3.9%)
Green: 664 (1.4%)
UKIP: 1131 (2.4%)
Christian: 159 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 3482 (7.5%)

2015 Result:
Labour Steve McCabe 21,584 47.7 Increase 9.1
Conservative Alex Boulter7 13,137 29.0 Decrease 2.1
UKIP Steven Brookes 5,755 12.7 Increase 10.3
Liberal Democrat Colin Green8 2,517 5.6 Decrease 16.7
Green Clare Thomas 2,301 5.1 Increase 3.7
Majority 8,447 18.6
Turnout 45,294 60.3

Leave Vote: 45.74%

Sitting MP: Stephen McCabe (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

9. Birmingham Yardley

2010 Result:
Conservative: 7836 (19.2%)
Labour: 13160 (32.2%)
Lib Dem: 16162 (39.6%)
BNP: 2153 (5.3%)
UKIP: 1190 (2.9%)
Others: 349 (0.9%)
MAJORITY: 3002 (7.3%)

2015 Result:
Labour Jess Phillips 17,129 41.5 Increase 9.4
Liberal Democrat John Hemming 10,534 25.6 Decrease 14.0
UKIP Paul Clayton 6,637 16.1 Increase 13.2
Conservative Arun Photay 5,760 14.0 Decrease 5.2
Green Grant Bishop 698 1.7 Increase 1.7
Respect Teval Stephens 187 0.5 N/A
TUSC Eamonn Flynn 135 0.3 N/A
Social Democratic Peter Johnson 71 0.2 N/A
Majority 6,595 16.0
Turnout 41,313 57.3 Increase 0.7

Leave Vote: 60.61%

Sitting MP: Jess Phillips (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

John Hemming is restanding and his result was certainly better than his LibDem colleagues. But given this is a Leave seat, I can’t see him rising from the ashes,

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE

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Diary

ConHome Diary: Is Boris Really Being Hidden Away From the Electorate & Has Labour Bottomed Out?

28 Apr 2017 at 15:03

The very idea that Theresa May will seek to hide Boris Johnson away during the election is preposterous. I yield to no one in my admiration of the election coverage from The Times. It’s the one newspaper I buy every day. However, this week the paper seems to have developed somewhat of a schizophrenia about Boris Johnson. On Wednesday the Red Box’s Matt Chorley reported breathlessly: “The Times reveals today that Theresa May is being urged by senior ministers to keep Johnson out of the spotlight, suggesting that he be kept busy with “lots of important meetings in various foreign capitals” instead. One minister, fearing that his Vote Leave role is a liability, asks witheringly: “What are we going to put on the side of his bus?” A mere day later their political editor Francis Elliott wrote an article headlines “BORIS TO BE TV POSTER BOY”. Boris seems to have some very powerful enemies in the Cabinet, who think nothing of spilling their thoughts to political journalists. It has to be said that we’ve seen less of this during Theresa May’s premiership than under David Cameron, but of course during an election any journalist will jump on any bitchfighting because they have acres of newsprint to fill.
It surely wouldn’t make any sense to keep Boris under lock and key, just because at one point in the campaign he’s bound to drop a bollock. You don’t keep your star player off the pitch.
And let’s just remember who is in charge of the Conservative campaign. One Sir Lynton Keith Crosby. Let us not forget that Lynton was the man behind Boris’s two mayoral election wins. He knows what Boris’s strengths and weaknesses are and is a huge fan of the Foreign Secretary. He will deploy Boris at times when letting Boris be Boris can be a huge advantage to the campaign. Just as it should be.
*
Last week I wrote some words in this column which I might have had reason to regret. Here’s a quick reminder: “If I’m honest, this is the first time for many years where I’ve thought I’d like to be a candidate again. Who wouldn’t want to be in Parliament over the next five years? But it was a fleeting thought and I dismissed it almost as soon as I had had it. At the age of 54 my time in politics has been and gone, and why would I give up the best job I have ever had?” At 2pm on Tuesday I saw that Sir Alan Haselhurst had announced he was standing down as MP for Saffron Walden. This is where I grew up and my parents lived all their lives. My Dad died a few months ago and I’ve been thinking about moving back to live on the family farm. For 24 hours my mind was a turmoil. But in the end, it wasn’t to be. I’m normally very decisive about making decisions like this, but I kept swinging from one extreme to the other. But the stars weren’t aligning. The negatives outweighed the positives. It would have been very difficult to force my way onto the shortlist but in addition I kept coming back to what I wrote last week: “Why would I give up the best job I have ever had?” Decision made, and absolutely no regrets. Whoever gets the seat will be very lucky indeed.
*

It seems an odd thing to write, but being 20 points ahead in the polls can be a dangerous place to be. There’s only one way to do, and that’s down. In the end there is only so far Labour can go down in the polls and I reckon we’ve reached that point now. Each of the two main parties has a core vote of 24-26% of the electorate. The Conservative campaign reeks of ‘safety first’ and that’s quite understandable, if rather boring for those of us who have to cover the campaign. OK, political campaigns are aimed at voters and not the media, but I do worry that turnout at this election may be very depressed if the campaign goes on as it is. There are going to be no head to head debates and people are already tiring of Conservative sloganizing. On my radio show this week Maria Caulfield, the Lewes MP, trotted out the usual ‘coalition of chaos’ and ‘strong and stable government’ to such an extent that I had to interrupt her and suggest we start a drinking game whenever these phrases are used. It’s boring. It insults the intelligence of the electorate and does a disservice to our democracy.
*
I’ve now predicted the results of 107 seats in my Seat by Seat general election prediction series. As I go through the different geographical areas it’s amazing how many Labour seats could be in play. Even Tony Blair’s seat of Sedgfield could fall to the Conservatives if the stars align. If you’d like to follow my predictions as I add to them every day click on this link [ add link http://iaindale.com/posts/2017/04/19/general-election-2017-seat-by-seat-predictions-predictions-so-far ]
*

Candidate selections are a complete lottery. You can give the greatest speech of your life, but if your face doesn’t fit, you’re toast. I was told about one recent selection where two of the candidates gave out of their skin performances and yet the candidate who was weak and hapless won on the first ballot. Don’t you just love the unpredictability of Conservative Associations?
*
Next week’s local elections are going to be a challenge for Jeremy Corbyn. He’s likely to lose dozens of county council seats in England and have a lot of explaining to do in Scotland, where Labour is polling at 14%. Quite what will happen in Wales in anyone’s guess. I guess it’s he will have to adopt the mantra of Keep Calm & Carry On. I’ll be hosting a special LBC local elections show with Shelagh Fogarty and Gareth Knight, our resident psephologist, from 10pm-1am. If you’re at a County Council count please do tweet me any developments @iaindale.
*

If there is indeed a Tory landslide, something which I think is at this stage far from guaranteed, expect Jeremy Corbyn to hark back to 1987 and argue that he should be allowed to stay on as Labour leader just like Neil Kinnock did. He and his allies are desperate to stay in position until the Labour conference, as that is when they will try to push through rules changes for electing a new Labour leader. At the moment, to stand an MP has to get 15% of the parliamentary party to sign their nomination paper. The left want to reduce that to 5%, so whenever Jeremy Corbyn does decide to go, a representative of the hard left would automatically get on the ballot paper, and, given the hard left makeup of Labour’s current membership, would more than likely win. John McDonnell has said he wouldn’t ever run, so could it be Diane Abbott who rushes forward to take over the mantle? Or will it be one of the young turks who Corbyn has promoted to his shadow cabinet? All this just goes to show that even once the election is over, politics is unlikely to get any quieter over the summer months.

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