General Election Predictions

General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 56. London West

3 May 2017 at 22:35

LONDON WEST

Seats: 9
Current Political Makeup: Con 2, Lab 7
Predicted Political Makeup after June 8: Con 4, Lab 5

Brentford & Isleworth

2010 Result:
Conservative: 20022 (37.2%)
Labour: 18064 (33.6%)
Lib Dem: 12718 (23.7%)
BNP: 704 (1.3%)
Green: 787 (1.5%)
UKIP: 863 (1.6%)
English Dem: 230 (0.4%)
Christian: 210 (0.4%)
Independent: 68 (0.1%)
Others: 99 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 1958 (3.6%)

2015 Result:
Labour Ruth Cadbury9 25,096 43.8 +10.2
Conservative Mary Macleod 9 24,631 42.9 +5.7
UKIP Richard Hendron 10 3,203 5.6 +4.0
Liberal Democrat Joseph Bourke11 2,305 4.0 -19.6
Green Daniel Goldsmith 9 2,120 3.7 +2.2
Majority 465 0.8 n/a1
Turnout 57,355 67.8 +3.4

Leave Vote: 40.4%

Sitting MP: Ruth Cadbury (Lab)
Prediction: Conservative gain

A surefire Conservative gain here for the former MP who lost in 2010.

Chelsea & Fulham

2010 Result:
Conservative: 24093 (60.5%)
Labour: 7371 (18.5%)
Lib Dem: 6473 (16.2%)
BNP: 388 (1%)
Green: 671 (1.7%)
UKIP: 478 (1.2%)
English Dem: 169 (0.4%)
Others: 213 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 16722 (42%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Greg Hands11 25,322 62.9 +2.5
Labour Alexandra Sanderson12 9,300 23.1 +4.6
Liberal Democrat Simon Bailey 2,091 5.2 -11
UKIP Adrian Noble12 2,039 5.1 +3.9
Green Guy Rubin13 1,474 3.7 +2
Majority 16,022 39.8
Turnout 40,226 63.4 +3.3

Leave Vote: 29.1%

Sitting MP: Greg Hands (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Ealing Central & Acton

2010 Result:
Conservative: 17944 (38%)
Labour: 14228 (30.1%)
Lib Dem: 13041 (27.6%)
Green: 737 (1.6%)
UKIP: 765 (1.6%)
Christian: 295 (0.6%)
Others: 190 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 3716 (7.9%)

2015 Result:
Labour Rupa Huq 22,002 43.2 +13.1
Conservative Angie Bray 21,728 42.7 +4.7
Liberal Democrat Jon Ball 3,106 6.1 −21.5
UKIP Peter Florence 1,926 3.8 +2.2
Green Tom Sharman15 1,841 3.6 +2.1
Independent Jonathan Notley 125 0.2 N/A
Workers Revolutionary Scott Dore 73 0.1 N/A
Above and Beyond Party Tammy Rendle 54 0.1 N/A
Europeans Party Andrzej Rygielski 39 0.1 N/A
Majority 274 0.5
Turnout 50,894 71.4 +3.9

Leave Vote: 29.1%

Sitting MP: Rupa Huq (Lab)
Prediction: Conservative gain

Even though the Greens aren’t standing here I find it difficult to think this seat won’t revert to the Conservatives, despite the heavy Remain vote.

Ealing North

2010 Result:
Conservative: 14722 (30.9%)
Labour: 24023 (50.4%)
Lib Dem: 6283 (13.2%)
BNP: 1045 (2.2%)
Green: 505 (1.1%)
UKIP: 685 (1.4%)
Christian: 415 (0.9%)
MAJORITY: 9301 (19.5%)

2015 Result:
Labour Stephen Pound 26,745 55.1 +4.7
Conservative Thomas O’Malley 14,419 29.7 −1.2
UKIP Afzal Akram 3,922 8.1 +6.6
Green Meena Hans5 1,635 3.4 +2.3
Liberal Democrat Kevin McNamara 1,575 3.2 −9.9
TUSC David Hofman 214 0.4 N/A
Majority 12,326 25.4 +5.9
Turnout 48,510 65.7 −4.5

Leave Vote: 48.6%

Sitting MP: Stephen Pound
Prediction: Labour hold

Ealing Southall

2010 Result:
Conservative: 12733 (29.8%)
Labour: 22024 (51.5%)
Lib Dem: 6383 (14.9%)
Green: 705 (1.6%)
English Dem: 408 (1%)
Christian: 503 (1.2%)
MAJORITY: 9291 (21.7%)

2015 Result:
Labour Virendra Sharma 28,147 65.0 +13.5
Conservative James Symes 9,387 21.7 −8.1
Green Jas Mahal7 2,007 4.6 +3.0
UKIP John Poynton 1,769 4.1 N/A
Liberal Democrat Kavya Kaushik 1,550 3.6 −11.4
NLP Jagdeesh Singh 461 1.1 N/A
Majority 18,760 43.3 +21.6
Turnout 43,321 66.1 −4.7

Leave Vote: 43.2%

Sitting MP: Virendra Sharma (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Feltham & Heston

2010 Result:
Conservative: 16516 (34%)
Labour: 21174 (43.6%)
Lib Dem: 6679 (13.8%)
BNP: 1714 (3.5%)
Green: 530 (1.1%)
UKIP: 992 (2%)
Independent: 505 (1%)
Others: 426 (0.9%)
MAJORITY: 4658 (9.6%)

BY-ELECTION 2011
Seema Malhotra (Labour) 12639 54.4% (10.8%)
Mark Bowen (Conservative) 6436 27.7% (-6.3%)
Roger Crouch (Liberal Democrat) 1364 5.9% (-7.8%)
Andrew Charalambous (UKIP) 1276 5.5% (
3.5%)
Dave Furness (BNP) 540 2.3% (-1.2%)
Daniel Goldsmith (Green) 426 1.8% (0.7%)
Roger Cooper (English Democrats) 322 1.4% (n/a)
George Hallam (People Before Profit) 128 0.6% (n/a)
David Bishop (Buss Pass Elvis) 93 0.4% (n/a)
MAJORITY 6203 26.7% (
17.1%)
Turnout 28.8% (-31.1%)

2015 Result:
Labour Seema Malhotra 25,845 52.3 +8.7
Conservative Simon Nayyar 14,382 29.1 −4.9
UKIP Peter Dul 6,209 12.6 +10.5
Liberal Democrat Roger Crouch 1,579 3.2 −10.6
Green Tony Firkins 1,390 2.8 +1.7
Majority 11,463 23.2 −3.5
Turnout 49,405 60.0 +0.111

Sitting MP: Seema Malhotra (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Hammersmith

2010 Result:
Conservative: 17261 (36.4%)
Labour: 20810 (43.9%)
Lib Dem: 7567 (15.9%)
BNP: 432 (0.9%)
Green: 696 (1.5%)
UKIP: 551 (1.2%)
Independent: 135 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 3549 (7.5%)

2015 Result:
Labour Andy Slaughter 23,981 50.0 +6.1
Conservative Charlie Dewhirst10 17,463 36.4 0.0
Liberal Democrat Millicent Scott11 2,224 4.6 -11.3
Green David Akan12 2,105 4.4 +2.9
UKIP Richard Wood13 2,105 4.4 +3.2
Independent Stephen Brennan 82 0.2 +0.2
Majority 6,518 13.6 +6.1
Turnout 47,960 66.4 +0.8

Leave Vote: 31.3%

Sitting MP: Andy Slaughter (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Hayes & Harlington

2010 Result:
Conservative: 12553 (29.4%)
Labour: 23377 (54.8%)
Lib Dem: 3726 (8.7%)
BNP: 1520 (3.6%)
Green: 348 (0.8%)
English Dem: 464 (1.1%)
Christian: 83 (0.2%)
Others: 566 (1.3%)
MAJORITY: 10824 (25.4%)

2015 Result:
Labour John McDonnell 26,843 59.6 +4.7
Conservative Pearl Lewis 11,143 24.7 −4.7
UKIP Cliff Dixon 5,388 12.0 N/A
Liberal Democrat Satnam Kaur Khalsa 888 2.0 −6.8
Green Alick Munro 794 1.8 +0.9
Majority 15,700 34.8 +9.4
Turnout 45,056 60.2 −0.5

Leave Vote: 58.2%

Sitting MP: John McDonnell
Prediction: Labour hold

Uxbridge & South Ruislip

2010 Result:
Conservative: 21758 (48.3%)
Labour: 10542 (23.4%)
Lib Dem: 8995 (20%)
BNP: 1396 (3.1%)
Green: 477 (1.1%)
UKIP: 1234 (2.7%)
English Dem: 403 (0.9%)
Others: 271 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 11216 (24.9%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Boris Johnson 22,511 50.2 +1.9
Labour Chris Summers13 11,816 26.4 +3.0
UKIP Jack Duffin 6,346 14.2 +11.4
Liberal Democrat Michael Cox14 2,215 4.9 -15.0
Green Graham Lee15 1,414 3.2 +2.1
TUSC Gary Harbord 16 180 0.4 N/A
Independent Jenny Thompson17 84 0.2 N/A
Monster Raving Loony Howling Laud Hope18 72 0.2 N/A
Communities United Sabrina Moosun17 52 0.1 N/A
The Eccentric Party of Great Britain (UK) Lord Toby Jug17 50 0.1 N/A
Independent Michael Doherty17 39 0.1 N/A
The Realists` Party Jane Lawrence17 18 0.0 N/A
Independent James Jackson17 14 0.0 N/A
Majority 10,695 23.9 -1.0
Turnout 44,811 63.4 +0.1

Leave Vote: 57.2%

Sitting MP: Boris Johnson (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE

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General Election Predictions

General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 55. London - South East

3 May 2017 at 21:47

Seats: 12
Current Political Makeup: Con 5, Lab 7
Predicted Political Makeup after June 8: Con 6 , Lab 5, LibDem 1
Revised: Con 6, Lab 6

Beckenham

2010 Result:
Conservative: 27597 (57.9%)
Labour: 6893 (14.5%)
Lib Dem: 9813 (20.6%)
BNP: 1001 (2.1%)
Green: 608 (1.3%)
UKIP: 1551 (3.3%)
English Dem: 223 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 17784 (37.3%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Bob Stewart 27,955 57.3 -0.6
Labour Marina Ahmad 9,484 19.4 +5.0
UKIP Rob Bryant 6,108 12.5 +9.3
Liberal Democrat Anuja Prashar 3,378 6.9 -13.7
Green Ruth Fabricant8 1,878 3.8 +2.6
Majority 18,471 37.8
Turnout 48,803 73.2 +1.2

Leave Vote: 46.6%

Sitting MP: Col Bob Stewart (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Bermondsey & Old Southwark

2010 Result:
Conservative: 7638 (17.1%)
Labour: 13060 (29.2%)
Lib Dem: 21590 (48.4%)
BNP: 1370 (3.1%)
Green: 718 (1.6%)
Independent: 155 (0.3%)
Others: 120 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 8530 (19.1%)

2015 Result:
Labour Neil Coyle 22,146 43.1 +13.8
Liberal Democrat Simon Hughes 17,657 34.3 -14.0
Conservative Jean-Paul Floru 6,051 11.8 -5.3
UKIP Andy Beadle 3,254 6.3 +6.0
Green William Lavin 2,023 3.9 +2.3
TUSC Kingsley Abrams 142 0.3 N/A
Independent Lucy Hall 72 0.1 N/A
All People’s Party Donald Cole 59 0.1 N/A
Republican Socialist Party Steve Freeman 20 0.0 N/A
Majority 4,489 8.7
Turnout 51,424 61.7 +4.2

Leave Vote: 26%

Sitting MP: Neil Coyle (Lab)
Prediction: LibDem gain
Revised: Lab hold

To be honest this could go either way. Neil Coyle has been very outspoken against Jeremy Corbyn, but it’s difficult to know whether this will play to his advantage or not. Simon Hughes had an excellent reputation as a constituency MP and it’s entirely possible he may win back the seat. I think he will.

Bexleyheath & Crayford

2010 Result:
Conservative: 21794 (50.5%)
Labour: 11450 (26.5%)
Lib Dem: 5502 (12.7%)
BNP: 2042 (4.7%)
Green: 371 (0.9%)
UKIP: 1557 (3.6%)
English Dem: 466 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 10344 (24%)

2015 Result:
Conservative David Evennett 20,643 47.3 -3.2
Labour Stefano Borella 11,451 26.2 -0.3
UKIP Chris Attard 9,182 21.0 +17.4
Liberal Democrat Richard Davis 1,308 3.0 -9.7
Green Stella Gardiner6 950 2.2 +1.3
English Democrat Maggi Young 151 0.3 -0.8
Majority 9,192 21.3 -2.7
Turnout 43,685 67.4 +1.0

Leave Vote: 65.3%

Sitting MP: David Evennett (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Bromley & Chislehurst

2010 Result:
Conservative: 23569 (53.5%)
Labour: 7295 (16.6%)
Lib Dem: 9669 (22%)
BNP: 1070 (2.4%)
Green: 607 (1.4%)
UKIP: 1451 (3.3%)
English Dem: 376 (0.9%)
MAJORITY: 13900 (31.6%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Bob Neill 23,343 53.0 -0.5
Labour John Courtneidge 10 9,779 22.2 +5.6
UKIP Emmett Jenner 6,285 14.3 +11.0
Liberal Democrat Sam Webber11 2,836 6.4 -15.5
Green Roisin Robertson12 1,823 4.1 +2.8
Majority 13,564 30.8 -0.8
Turnout 44,066 68.4 +1.1

Leave Vote: 49.7%

Sitting MP: Bob Neill (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Eltham

2010 Result:
Conservative: 15753 (37.5%)
Labour: 17416 (41.5%)
Lib Dem: 5299 (12.6%)
BNP: 1745 (4.2%)
Green: 419 (1%)
UKIP: 1011 (2.4%)
English Dem: 217 (0.5%)
Independent: 104 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 1663 (4%)

2015 Result:
Labour Clive Efford 18,393 42.6 +1.1
Conservative Spencer Drury 15,700 36.4 −1.2
UKIP Peter Whittle 6,481 15.0 +12.6
Liberal Democrat Alex Cunliffe 1,308 3.0 −9.6
Green James Parker 1,275 3.0 +2.0
Majority 2,693 6.2 +2.2
Turnout 43,157 67.4 +0.4

Leave Vote: 52.4%

Sitting MP: Clive Efford (Lab)
Prediction: Conservative gain

Highly marginal seat which the Tories expected to take in 2010. They didn’t manage it last time, but this time it looks like Taxi for Mr Efford!

Erith & Thamesmead

2010 Result:
Conservative: 13365 (31.5%)
Labour: 19068 (44.9%)
Lib Dem: 5116 (12%)
BNP: 2184 (5.1%)
Green: 322 (0.8%)
UKIP: 1139 (2.7%)
English Dem: 465 (1.1%)
Others: 817 (1.9%)
MAJORITY: 5703 (13.4%)

2015 Result:
Labour Teresa Pearce 21,209 49.8 +4.9
Conservative Anna Firth 11,684 27.4 −4.0
UKIP Ronie Johnson 7,368 17.3 +14.6
Liberal Democrat Simon Waddington 972 2.3 −9.8
Green Ann Garrett 941 2.2 +1.4
Christian Peoples Sidney Cordle 255 0.6 −0.3
English Democrat Graham Moore 188 0.4 −0.7
Majority 9,525 22.4 +9
Turnout 42,617 60.5 +0.3

Leave Vote: 54.6%

Sitting MP: Teresa Pearce (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Greenwich & Woolwich

2010 Result:
Conservative: 10109 (24.5%)
Labour: 20262 (49.2%)
Lib Dem: 7498 (18.2%)
BNP: 1151 (2.8%)
Green: 1054 (2.6%)
English Dem: 339 (0.8%)
Christian: 443 (1.1%)
TUSC: 267 (0.6%)
Independent: 65 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 10153 (24.7%

2015 Result:
Labour Matthew Pennycook 24,384 52.2 +3.0
Conservative Matt Hartley 12,438 26.6 +2.1
UKIP Ryan Acty11 3,888 8.3 N/A
Green Abbey Akinoshun12 2,991 6.4 +3.8
Liberal Democrat Tom Holder13 2,645 5.7 -12.5
TUSC Lynne Chamberlain 370 0.8 +0.1
Majority 11,946 25.6 +0.9
Turnout 46,716 63.7 +0.8

Leave Vote: 34.7%

Sitting MP: Matthew Pennycook (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Lewisham Deptford

2010 Result:
Conservative: 5551 (13.5%)
Labour: 22132 (53.7%)
Lib Dem: 9633 (23.4%)
Green: 2772 (6.7%)
Others: 1132 (2.7%)
MAJORITY: 12499 (30.3%)

2015 Result:
Labour Vicky Foxcroft 28,572 60.2 +6.6
Conservative Bim Afolami 7,056 14.9 +1.4
Green John Coughlin 5,932 12.5 +5.8
Liberal Democrat Michael Bukola 2,497 5.3 -18.1
UKIP Massimo DiMambro 2,013 4.2 N/A
People Before Profit Helen Mercer 666 1.4 N/A
Christian Peoples Malcolm Martin 300 0.6 -0.5
TUSC Chris Flood 286 0.6 N/A
Democratic Reform Phil Badger 74 0.2 N/A
Independent David Harvey 30 0.1 N/A
Majority 21,516 45.4 +15.1
Turnout 47,426 64.6 +3.1

Leave Vote: 24.4%

Sitting MP: Vicky Foxcroft (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Lewisham East

2010 Result:
Conservative: 9850 (23.6%)
Labour: 17966 (43.1%)
Lib Dem: 11750 (28.2%)
Green: 624 (1.5%)
UKIP: 771 (1.8%)
English Dem: 426 (1%)
Others: 332 (0.8%)
MAJORITY: 6216 (14.9%)

2015 Result:
Labour Heidi Alexander 23,907 55.7 +12.6
Conservative Peter Fortune 9,574 22.3 -1.3
UKIP Anne Waters 3,886 9.1 +7.2
Liberal Democrat Julia Fletcher 2,455 5.7 -22.4
Green Störm Poorun 2,429 5.7 +4.2
People Before Profit Nick Long 390 0.9 +0.1
Christian Peoples Maureen Martin 282 0.7 N/A
Majority 14,333 33.4 +18.5
Turnout 42,923 64.1 +0.8

Leave Vote: 35.4%

Sitting MP: Heidi Alexander (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Lewisham West & Penge

2010 Result:
Conservative: 11489 (25.5%)
Labour: 18501 (41.1%)
Lib Dem: 12673 (28.1%)
Green: 931 (2.1%)
UKIP: 1117 (2.5%)
Others: 317 (0.7%)
MAJORITY: 5828 (12.9%)

2015 Result:
Labour Jim Dowd 24,347 50.6 +9.5
Conservative Russell Jackson 11,633 24.2 -1.3
Green Tom Chance 4,077 8.5 +6.4
UKIP Gary Harding 3,764 7.8 +5.3
Liberal Democrat Alex Feakes 3,709 7.7 -20.4
TUSC Martin Powell-Davies 391 0.8 N/A
Independent David Hansom 160 0.3 N/A
Liberty GB Dr George Whale 84 0.1 N/A
Majority 12,714 26.4 +13.5
Turnout 48,125 66.6 +1.4

Leave Vote: 346%

Sitting MP: Jim Dowd (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Old Bexley & Sidcup

2010 Result:
Conservative: 24625 (54.1%)
Labour: 8768 (19.3%)
Lib Dem: 6996 (15.4%)
BNP: 2132 (4.7%)
Green: 371 (0.8%)
UKIP: 1532 (3.4%)
English Dem: 520 (1.1%)
Others: 548 (1.2%)
MAJORITY: 15857 (34.9%)

2015 Result:
Conservative James Brokenshire 24,682 52.8 −1.3
Labour Ibby Mehmet 8,879 19.0 −0.3
UKIP Catherine Reilly 8,528 18.2 +14.9
Liberal Democrat Jennifer Keen 1,644 3.5 −11.9
Green Derek Moran 1,336 2.9 +2.0
National Health Action Bob Gill 1,216 2.6 N/A
Christian Laurence Williams 245 0.5 N/A
BNP Nicola Finch 218 0.5 −4.2
Majority 15,803 33.8 −1.1
Turnout 46,748 70.8 +1.5

Leave Vote: 62.4%

Sitting MP: James Brokenshire (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Orpington

2010 Result:
Conservative: 29200 (59.7%)
Labour: 4400 (9%)
Lib Dem: 12000 (24.5%)
BNP: 1241 (2.5%)
Green: 511 (1%)
UKIP: 1360 (2.8%)
English Dem: 199 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 17200 (35.2%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Jo Johnson 28,152 57.4 -2.3
UKIP Idham Ramadi12 8,173 16.7 +13.9
Labour Nigel de Gruchy 7,645 15.6 +6.6
Liberal Democrat Peter Brooks 3,330 6.8 -17.7
Green Tamara Galloway13 1,732 3.5 +2.5
Majority 19,979 40.7 +5.5
Turnout 49,032 72.6 +0.4

Leave Vote: 56.2%

Sitting MP: Jo Johnson (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE

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ALERT: Join Shelagh Fogarty And Me For LBC's Local Election Night Show

3 May 2017 at 21:19

I hope you’ll join Shelagh Fogarty and me for LBC’s Local Election Night Show from 10pm on Thursday evening. We’re going right through until 4am covering the county counil results and some of the mayoral contests.

Between 10pm and midnight, joining us live in the studio will be…

  • Michael Gove
  • Nigel Farage
  • Emily Thornberry
  • Simon Hughes
  • Gareth Knight, LBC’s Elections Analyst

Labour’s Elections Coordinator Andrew Gwynne will also join us, and later we’ll be joined in the studio by Local Government & Communities Minister Gavin Barwell and the LibDem leader in the House of Lords, Dick Newby. We’ll have lots of other guests on the line including Alex Salmond.

We’ll be streaming the whole six hours live on Facebook Live and we’ll have a three hour start on the BBC’s coverage.

You can listen to LBC on 97.3FM in London, on your DAB radio, via Freeview, Sky, Freesat or by downloading the LBC App on iPhone or Android.

If you’re at a County Council count do email me gossip, insight or results to iain@lbc.co.uk or tweet me @iaindale.

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General Election Predictions

General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 54. Wales - Mid Glamorgan

3 May 2017 at 11:55

MID GLAMORGAN

Seats: 5
Current Political Makeup: Lab 5
Predicted Political Makeup after June 8: Con 1, Lab 4

1. Bridgend

2010 Result:
Conservative: 11668 (30.4%)
Labour: 13931 (36.3%)
Lib Dem: 8658 (22.6%)
Plaid Cymru: 2269 (5.9%)
BNP: 1020 (2.7%)
UKIP: 801 (2.1%)
MAJORITY: 2263 (5.9%)

2015 Result:
Labour Madeleine Moon 14,624 37.1 +0.7
Conservative Meirion Jenkins 12,697 32.2 +1.8
UKIP Caroline Jones 5,911 15.0 +12.9
Plaid Cymru James Christopher Radcliffe 9 2,784 7.1 +1.1
Liberal Democrat Anita Dawn Davies 10 1,648 4.2 −18.4
Independent Les Tallon Morris 763 1.9 N/A
Green Tony White 736 1.9 N/A
TUSC Aaron David 118 0.3 N/A
Pirate David A Elston 106 0.3 N/A
National Front Adam John Lloyd 66 0.2 N/A
Majority 1,927 4.9 −1.0
Turnout 39,453 65.8 +0.5

2015 Result:
Labour Madeleine Moon 14,624 37.1 +0.7
Conservative Meirion Jenkins 12,697 32.2 +1.8
UKIP Caroline Jones 5,911 15.0 +12.9
Plaid Cymru James Christopher Radcliffe 9 2,784 7.1 +1.1
Liberal Democrat Anita Dawn Davies 10 1,648 4.2 −18.4
Independent Les Tallon Morris 763 1.9 N/A
Green Tony White 736 1.9 N/A
TUSC Aaron David 118 0.3 N/A
Pirate David A Elston 106 0.3 N/A
National Front Adam John Lloyd 66 0.2 N/A
Majority 1,927 4.9 −1.0
Turnout 39,453 65.8 +0.5

Leave Vote: 50.3%

Sitting MP: Madeleine Moon (Lab)
Prediction: Conservative gain

2. Cynon Valley

2010 Result:
Conservative: 3010 (10.1%)
Labour: 15681 (52.5%)
Lib Dem: 4120 (13.8%)
Plaid Cymru: 6064 (20.3%)
UKIP: 1001 (3.4%)
MAJORITY: 9617 (32.2%)

2015 Result:
Labour Ann Clwyd 14,532 47.7 −4.8
Plaid Cymru Cerith Griffiths 5,126 16.8 −3.5
UKIP Rebecca Rees-Evans 4,976 16.3 +13.0
Conservative Keith Dewhurst 3,676 12.1 +2.0
Liberal Democrat Angharad Jones 830 2.7 −11.1
Green John Matthews 799 2.6 N/A
Socialist Labour Chris Beggs 533 1.7 N/A
Majority 9,406 30.9 −1.3
Turnout 30,472 59.3 +0.3

Leave Vote: 56.7%

Sitting MP: Ann Clwyd (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

4. Ogmore

2010 Result:
Conservative: 5398 (15.6%)
Labour: 18644 (53.8%)
Lib Dem: 5260 (15.2%)
Plaid Cymru: 3326 (9.6%)
BNP: 1242 (3.6%)
UKIP: 780 (2.3%)
MAJORITY: 13246 (38.2%)

2015 Result:
Labour Chris Elmore 7 12,383 52.6 −0.3
UKIP Glenda Davies 3,808 16.2 +1.2
Plaid Cymru Abi Thomas 3,683 15.7 +5.6
Conservative Alex Williams 2,956 12.6 −3.3
Liberal Democrat Janet Ellard 702 3.0 −0.0
Majority 8,575 36.4 −0.6
Turnout 23,532 43 −20.7

Leave Vote: 58.9%

Sitting MP: Chris Elmore (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

5. Pontypridd

2010 Result:
Conservative: 5932 (16.2%)
Labour: 14220 (38.8%)
Lib Dem: 11435 (31.2%)
Plaid Cymru: 2673 (7.3%)
Green: 361 (1%)
UKIP: 1229 (3.4%)
Christian: 365 (1%)
Others: 456 (1.2%)
MAJORITY: 2785 (7.6%)

2015 Result:
Labour Owen Smith 15,554 41.1 +2.3
Conservative Ann-Marie Mason 6,569 17.3 +1.1
UKIP Andrew Tomkinson 5,085 13.4 +10.0
Liberal Democrat Mike Powell 4,904 12.9 −18.3
Plaid Cymru Osian Lewis 4,348 11.5 +4.2
Green Katy Clay 992 2.6 +1.6
Socialist Labour Damien Biggs 332 0.9 −0.3
TUSC Esther Pearson 98 0.3 N/A
Majority 8,985 23.7 +16.1
Turnout 37,882 64.3 +1.3

Sitting MP: Owen Smith (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

6. Rhondda

2010 Result:
Conservative: 1993 (6.4%)
Labour: 17183 (55.3%)
Lib Dem: 3309 (10.6%)
Plaid Cymru: 5630 (18.1%)
UKIP: 358 (1.2%)
Independent: 2599 (8.4%)
MAJORITY: 11553 (37.2%)

2015 Result:
Labour Chris Bryant 15,976 50.7 −4.6
Plaid Cymru Shelley Rees-Owen 8,521 27.0 +8.9
UKIP Ron Hughes 3,998 12.7 +11.5
Conservative Lyn Hudson 2,116 6.7 +0.3
Liberal Democrat George Summers 474 1.5 −9.1
Green Lisa Rapado 453 1.4 N/A
Majority 7,455 23.6 −13.6
Turnout 31,538 60.9 +0.6

Leave Vote: 60%

Sitting MP: Chris Bryant (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

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General Election Predictions

General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 53. Wales - Gwent

3 May 2017 at 11:31

GWENT

Seats: 8
Current Political Makeup: Con 1, Lab 7
Predicted Political Makeup after June 8: Con 2, Lab 6
Revised: Con 1, Lab 7

1. Blaenau Gwent

2010 Result:
Conservative: 2265 (7%)
Labour: 16974 (52.4%)
Lib Dem: 3285 (10.1%)
Plaid Cymru: 1333 (4.1%)
BNP: 1211 (3.7%)
UKIP: 488 (1.5%)
Peoples Voice: 6458 (19.9%)
Others: 381 (1.2%)
MAJORITY: 10516 (32.5%)

2015 Result:
Labour Nick Smith 18,380 58.0 +5.6
UKIP Susan Boucher 5,677 17.9 +16.4
Conservative Tracey Michelle West 8 3,419 10.8 +3.8
Plaid Cymru Steffan Lewis 2,849 9.0 +4.9
Green Mark Pond 738 2.3 New
Liberal Democrat Samuel Rees 620 2.0 −8.2
Majority 12,703 40.1 +5.3
Turnout 31,683 61.7 −0.1

Leave Vote: 62%

Sitting MP: Nick Smith (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

2. Caerphilly

2010 Result:
Conservative: 6622 (17.1%)
Labour: 17377 (44.9%)
Lib Dem: 5688 (14.7%)
Plaid Cymru: 6460 (16.7%)
BNP: 1635 (4.2%)
UKIP: 910 (2.4%)
MAJORITY: 10755 (27.8%)

2015 Result:
Labour Wayne David 5 17,864 44.3 −0.6
UKIP Sam Gould 6 7,791 19.3 +16.9
Conservative Leo Docherty 7 6,683 16.6 -0.5
Plaid Cymru Beci Newton 8 5,895 14.6 -2.1
Green Katy Beddoe9 937 2.3 N/A
Liberal Democrat Aladdin Ayesh10 935 2.3 -12.4
TUSC Jaime Davies 178 0.4 N/A
Majority 10,073 25.0 -2.8
Turnout 40,283 63.3 +1.0

Leave Vote: 55.1%

Sitting MP: Wayne David (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

3. Islwyn

2010 Result:
Conservative: 4854 (14%)
Labour: 17069 (49.2%)
Lib Dem: 3597 (10.4%)
Plaid Cymru: 4518 (13%)
BNP: 1320 (3.8%)
UKIP: 930 (2.7%)
Independent: 1495 (4.3%)
Others: 901 (2.6%)
MAJORITY: 12215 (35.2%)

2015 Result:
Labour Co-op Christopher James Evans 17,336 49.0 −0.2
UKIP Joe Smyth 6,932 19.6 +16.9
Conservative Laura Anne Jones 5,366 15.2 +1.2
Plaid Cymru Lyn Ackerman 3,794 10.7 −2.3
Liberal Democrat Brendan D’Cruz6 950 2.7 −7.7
Green Peter Varley7 659 1.9 N/A
Monster Raving Loony Baron von Magpie 213 0.6 N/A
TUSC Joshua Rawcliffe 151 0.4 N/A
Majority 10,404 29.4 −5.8
Turnout 35,401 63.6 +0.3

Leave Vote: 58.9%

Sitting MP: Chris Evans (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

4. Merthyr Tydfil & Rhymney

2010 Result:
Conservative: 2412 (7.5%)
Labour: 14007 (43.7%)
Lib Dem: 9951 (31%)
Plaid Cymru: 1621 (5.1%)
BNP: 1173 (3.7%)
UKIP: 872 (2.7%)
Independent: 1845 (5.8%)
Others: 195 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 4056 (12.6%)

2015 Result:
Labour Gerald Jones7 17,619 53.9 +10.2
UKIP David Rowlands8 6,106 18.7 +15.9
Conservative Bill Rees 3,292 10.1 +2.5
Plaid Cymru Rhayna Pritchard 3,099 9.5 +4.4
Liberal Democrat Bob Griffin9 1,351 4.1 −26.9
Green Elspeth Parris10 603 1.8 n/a
Independent Eddy Blanche 459 1.4 n/a
Communist Robert Griffiths 186 0.6 n/a
Majority 11,513 35.2 +22.6
Turnout 32,715 53.0 −5.6

Leave Vote: 58.4%

Sitting MP: Dai Havard (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

5. Monmouth

2010 Result:
Conservative: 22466 (48.3%)
Labour: 12041 (25.9%)
Lib Dem: 9026 (19.4%)
Plaid Cymru: 1273 (2.7%)
Green: 587 (1.3%)
UKIP: 1126 (2.4%)
MAJORITY: 10425 (22.4%)

2015 Result:
Conservative David Davies 23,701 49.9 +1.6
Labour Ruth Jones 12,719 26.8 +0.9
UKIP Gareth Dunn 4,942 10.4 +8.0
Liberal Democrat Veronica German 2,496 5.3 −14.1
Plaid Cymru Jonathan Clark 1,875 3.9 +1.2
Green Christopher Were 1,629 3.4 +2.2
English Democrat Stephen Morris 100 0.2 n/a
Majority 10,982 23.1 +0.7
Turnout 47,462 76.2 +4.0

Leave Vote: 48.1%

Sitting MP: David T C Davies (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

6. Newport East

2010 Result:
Conservative: 7918 (23%)
Labour: 12744 (37%)
Lib Dem: 11094 (32.2%)
Plaid Cymru: 724 (2.1%)
BNP: 1168 (3.4%)
UKIP: 677 (2%)
Others: 123 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 1650 (4.8%)

2015 Result:
Labour Jessica Morden 14,290 40.7 +3.7
Conservative Natasha Asghar 9,585 27.3 +4.3
UKIP David Stock 6,466 18.4 +16.5
Liberal Democrat Paul Halliday 2,251 6.4 -25.8
Plaid Cymru Tony Salkeld6 1,231 3.5 +1.4
Green David Mclean7 887 2.5 N/A
Socialist Labour Shangara Singh Bhatoe 398 1.1 +0.8
Majority 4,705 13.4 +8.6
Turnout 35,108 62.7 -0.9

Leave Vote: 59.3%

Sitting MP: Jessica Morden (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Jessica Morden might be in for a nervous campaign here, but she will probably pull through.

7. Newport West

2010 Result:
Conservative: 12845 (32.3%)
Labour: 16389 (41.3%)
Lib Dem: 6587 (16.6%)
Plaid Cymru: 1122 (2.8%)
BNP: 1183 (3%)
Green: 450 (1.1%)
UKIP: 1144 (2.9%)
MAJORITY: 3544 (8.9%)

2015 Result:
Labour Paul Flynn6 16,633 41.2 -0.1
Conservative Nick Webb 13,123 32.5 +0.2
UKIP Gordon Norrie 6,134 15.2 +12.3
Plaid Cymru Simon Coopey7 1,604 4.0 +1.2
Liberal Democrat Ed Townsend 1,581 3.9 −12.7
Green Pippa Bartolotti 1,272 3.2 +2.1
Majority 3,510 8.7 −0.2
Turnout 40,347 64.9 0.1

Leave Vote: 53.7%

Sitting MP: Paul Flynn (Lab)
Prediction: Conservative gain
Revised: Lab hold

This seat should go Tory this time but if it isn’t it can be blamed on the Tories imposing a candidate with no links to the area and without any selection competition.

8. Torfaen

2010 Result:
Conservative: 7541 (20%)
Labour: 16847 (44.8%)
Lib Dem: 6264 (16.6%)
Plaid Cymru: 2005 (5.3%)
BNP: 1657 (4.4%)
Green: 438 (1.2%)
UKIP: 862 (2.3%)
Independent: 1419 (3.8%)
Others: 607 (1.6%)
MAJORITY: 9306 (24.7%)

2015 Result:
Labour Nick Thomas-Symonds 16,938 44.6 −0.2
Conservative Graham Smith 8,769 23.1 +3.1
UKIP Ken Beswick 7,203 19.0 +16.7
Plaid Cymru Boydd Hackley-Green 2,169 5.7 +0.4
Liberal Democrat Alison Willott 1,271 3.4 −13.2
Green Matt Cooke5 746 2.0 +0.8
Socialist Labour John Cox 697 1.8 N/A
Communist Mark Griffiths 144 0.4 N/A
Majority 8,169 21.5 −3.2
Turnout 37,937 61.3 -0.2

Leave Vote: 53.5%

Sitting MP: Nick Thomas-Symonds (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

A few elections ago Labour was polling 30k votes here. That number has nearly halved. The Tories have increased their vote over the years and are now pushing 10k. They have this seat in their sights, but a lot will depend on their local campaign.

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LBC Book Club: Best of 2012 (Part 1)

Part 1 of 2. With Jack Straw, Lady Pamela Hicks, Peter Hennessy and President Mary Robinson.

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General Election Predictions

General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 52. Nottinghamshire

3 May 2017 at 08:57

NOTTINGHAMSHIRE

Seats: 11
Current Political Makeup: Con 4, Lab 7
Predicted Political Makeup after June 8: Con 6, Lab 5

1. Ashfield

2010 Result:
Conservative: 10698 (22.2%)
Labour: 16239 (33.7%)
Lib Dem: 16047 (33.3%)
BNP: 2781 (5.8%)
UKIP: 933 (1.9%)
English Dem: 1102 (2.3%)
Independent: 396 (0.8%)
MAJORITY: 192 (0.4%)

2015 Result:
Labour Gloria De Piero 19,448 41.0 +7.3
Conservative Helen Harrison6 10,628 22.4 +0.2
UKIP Simon Ashcroft 10,150 21.4 +19.5
Liberal Democrat Philip Smith7 7,030 14.8 −18.5
Justice for Men and Boys Mike Buchanan 153 0.3 +0.3
Majority 8,820 18.6 +18.2
Turnout 47,409 61.5 −0.8

Leave Vote: 70.5%

Sitting MP: Gloria de Piero (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

With a majority of 8,800 you’d think Gloria de Piero would think of this as a safe seat, but it is nothing of the sort. It only has that level of majority because the opposition vote is split equally between UKIP and the Conservatives. If the UKIP vote collapses to its 2010 levels this could be one of the more surprising results of the night. For now, I reckon de Piero’s high profile and apparent local popularity will see her through.

2. Bassetlaw

2010 Result:
Conservative: 16803 (33.9%)
Labour: 25018 (50.5%)
Lib Dem: 5570 (11.2%)
UKIP: 1779 (3.6%)
Independent: 407 (0.8%)
MAJORITY: 8215 (16.6%)

2015 Result:
Labour John Mann 23,965 48.6 -1.8
Conservative Sarah Downes 15,122 30.7 -3.2
UKIP Dave Scott 7,865 16.0 +12.4
Liberal Democrat Leon Duveen 1,331 2.7 -8.5
Green Kristopher Wragg 1,006 2.0 N/A
Majority 8,843 17.9 +1.3
Turnout 49,289 63.6 -1.2

Leave Vote: 68.3%

Sitting MP: John Mann (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

3. Broxtowe

2010 Result:
Conservative: 20585 (39%)
Labour: 20196 (38.3%)
Lib Dem: 8907 (16.9%)
BNP: 1422 (2.7%)
Green: 423 (0.8%)
UKIP: 1194 (2.3%)
MAJORITY: 389 (0.7%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Anna Soubry 24,163 45.2 +6.2
Labour Nick Palmer 19,876 37.2 -1.1
UKIP Frank Dunne 5,674 10.6 +8.4
Liberal Democrat Stan Heptinstall 2,120 4.0 -12.9
Green David Kirwan 1,544 2.9 +2.1
Justice for Men and Boys Ray Barry 63 0.1 N/A
Majority 4,287 8.0 +7.3
Turnout 53,440 74.4 +1.2

Leave Vote: 52.5%

Sitting MP: Anna Soubry (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

This is a seat Labour will have its eye on, on the assumption that UKIP could suck away a lot of Conservative votes from the vocal Remain supporter Anna Soubry. However, I think she has enough of a buffer to fight them off.

4. Gedling

2010 Result:
Conservative: 17962 (37.3%)
Labour: 19821 (41.1%)
Lib Dem: 7350 (15.3%)
BNP: 1598 (3.3%)
UKIP: 1459 (3%)
MAJORITY: 1859 (3.9%)

2015 Result:
Labour Vernon Coaker 20,307 42.3 +1.2
Conservative Carolyn Abbott 17,321 36.1 −1.2
UKIP Lee Waters 6,930 14.4 +11.4
Liberal Democrat Robert Swift 1,906 4.0 −11.3
Green Jim Norris 1,534 3.2 +3.2
Majority 2,986 6.2 +2.3
Turnout 47,998 68.5 +0.6

Sitting MP: Vernon Coaker (Lab)
Prediction: Conservative gain

Ever since Labour won the seat from Andrew Mitchell in 1997 their hold on it has been somewhat precarious. Coaker will be a casualty of the May surge here.

5. Mansfield

2010 Result:
Conservative: 12741 (26.3%)
Labour: 18753 (38.7%)
Lib Dem: 7469 (15.4%)
BNP: 2108 (4.4%)
UKIP: 2985 (6.2%)
Others: 4339 (9%)
MAJORITY: 6012 (12.4%)

2015 Result:
Labour Alan Meale8 18,603 39.4 +0.7
Conservative Andrea Clarke9 13,288 28.2 +1.8
UKIP Sid Pepper10 11,850 25.1 +18.9
Liberal Democrat Tony Rogers11 1,642 3.5 -12.0
Green Paul Frost12 1,486 3.1 +3.1
TUSC Karen Seymour11 324 0.7 +0.7
Majority 5,315 11.3 -1.1
Turnout 47,193 60.9 +0.5

Leave Vote: 70.1%

Sitting MP: Sir Alan Meale (Lab)
Prediction: Conservative gain

This seat hasn’t returned a Tory MP in living memory. I expect that to change on June 9th. The UKIP vote here is huge and if only a quarter of it went to the Tories it could e enough to see them take the seat.

6. Newark

2010 Result:
Conservative: 27590 (53.9%)
Labour: 11438 (22.3%)
Lib Dem: 10246 (20%)
UKIP: 1954 (3.8%)
MAJORITY: 16152 (31.5%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Robert Jenrick 29,834 57.0 +3.2
Labour Michael Payne 11,360 21.7 -0.6
UKIP Brian Mapletoft 6,294 12.0 +8.2
Liberal Democrat David Dobbie 2,385 4.6 -15.4
Green Elayne Forster 1,792 3.4 N/A
Consensus – The Community Party Helen Tyrer 637 1.2 N/A
Majority 18,474 35.3 +3.8
Turnout 52,302 70.9 -0.5

Leave Vote: 55.7%

Sitting MP: Robert Jenrick (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

7. Nottingham East

2010 Result:
Conservative: 7846 (23.7%)
Labour: 15022 (45.4%)
Lib Dem: 8053 (24.3%)
Green: 928 (2.8%)
UKIP: 1138 (3.4%)
Christian: 125 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 6969 (21%)

2015 Result:
Labour Co-op Chris Leslie 19,208 54.6 +9.2
Conservative Garry Hickton 7,314 20.8 -2.9
UKIP Fran Loi8 3,501 9.9 +6.5
Green Antonia Zenkevitch 9 3,473 9.9 +7.1
Liberal Democrat Tad Jones 1,475 4.2 -20.1
Independent Seb Soar 10 141 0.4 +0.4
Independent James Stephenson 97 0.3 +0.3
Majority 11,894 33.8 +12.8
Turnout 58.2 +1.8

Leave Vote: 42.6%

Sitting MP: Chris Leslie (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

8. Nottingham North

2010 Result:
Conservative: 8508 (24.8%)
Labour: 16646 (48.6%)
Lib Dem: 5849 (17.1%)
BNP: 1944 (5.7%)
UKIP: 1338 (3.9%)
MAJORITY: 8138 (23.7%)

2015 Result:
Labour Graham Allen 19,283 54.6 +6.0
Conservative Louise Burfitt-Dons 7,423 21.0 −3.8
UKIP Stephen Crosby7 6,542 18.5 +14.6
Green Katharina Boettge8 1,088 3.1 +3.1
Liberal Democrat Tony Sutton 847 2.4 −14.7
TUSC Cathy Meadows 160 0.5 +0.5
Majority 11,860 33.6
Turnout 34,285 53.6 −0.6

Leave Vote: 63.3%

Sitting MP: Graham Allen (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

9. Nottingham South

2010 Result:
Conservative: 13437 (32.9%)
Labour: 15209 (37.3%)
Lib Dem: 9406 (23.1%)
BNP: 1140 (2.8%)
Green: 630 (1.5%)
UKIP: 967 (2.4%)
MAJORITY: 1772 (4.3%)

2015 Result:
Labour Lilian Greenwood8 20,697 47.6 +10.3
Conservative Jane Hunt9 13,761 31.7 −1.3
UKIP David Hollas10 4,900 11.3 +8.9
Green Adam McGregor11 2,345 5.4 +3.9
Liberal Democrat Deborah Newton-Cook12 1,532 3.5 -19.5
TUSC Andrew Clayworth 230 0.5 +0.5
Majority 6,936 16.0
Turnout 43,465 63.0 +2.5

Leave Vote: 45.6%

Sitting MP: Lilian Greenwood (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Not the biggest Labour majority, but I reckon this is safe for Lilian Greenwood due to the comparatively small UKIP vote.

10. Rushcliffe

2010 Result:
Conservative: 27470 (51.2%)
Labour: 11128 (20.7%)
Lib Dem: 11659 (21.7%)
Green: 1251 (2.3%)
UKIP: 2179 (4.1%)
MAJORITY: 15811 (29.5%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Kenneth Clarke 28,354 51.4 +0.2
Labour David Mellen 14,525 26.3 +5.6
UKIP Matthew Faithfull9 5,943 10.8 +6.7
Green Richard Mallender 3,559 6.5 +4.2
Liberal Democrat Robert Johnston 2,783 5.0 −16.7
Majority 13,829 25.1 −4.4
Turnout 55,164 75.3 +1.7

Leave Vote: 41.5%

Sitting MP: Kenneth Clarke (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

11. Sherwood

2010 Result:
Conservative: 19211 (39.2%)
Labour: 18997 (38.8%)
Lib Dem: 7283 (14.9%)
BNP: 1754 (3.6%)
UKIP: 1490 (3%)
Independent: 219 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 214 (0.4%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Mark Spencer 22,833 45.0 +5.8
Labour Léonie Mathers 18,186 35.9 −2.9
UKIP Sally Chadd9 7,399 14.6 +11.6
Green Lydia Davies-Bright10 1,108 2.2 +2.2
Liberal Democrat Dan Mosley11 1,094 2.2 −12.7
Class War Dave Perkins 78 0.2 0.2
Majority 4,647 9.2
Turnout 50,698 69.1

Leave Vote: 63.7%

Sitting MP: Mark Spencer (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

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Iain Talks to Nigel Evans MP After His acquittal

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General Election Predictions

General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 51. South Yorkshire

2 May 2017 at 22:27

SOUTH YORKSHIRE

Seats: 14
Current Political Makeup: Lab 13, LibDem 1
Predicted Political Makeup after June 8: Con 1, Lab 12, LibDem 1

1. Barnsley Central

2010 Result:
Conservative: 6388 (17.3%)
Labour: 17487 (47.3%)
Lib Dem: 6394 (17.3%)
BNP: 3307 (8.9%)
UKIP: 1727 (4.7%)
Independent: 732 (2%)
Others: 966 (2.6%)
MAJORITY: 11093 (30%)

2015 Result:
Labour Dan Jarvis 20,376 55.7 +8.5
UKIP Lee Hunter 7,941 21.7 +17.1
Conservative Kay Carter 5,485 15.0 -2.3
Green Michael Short 938 2.6 N/A
Liberal Democrat John Ridgway 770 2.1 -15.2
TUSC Dave Gibson 573 1.6 N/A
English Democrat Ian Sutton 477 1.3 N/A
Majority 12,435 34.0 +4.0
Turnout 36,560 56.7 +0.2

Leave Vote: 61.2%

Sitting MP: Dan Jarvis (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

2. Barnsley East

2010 Result:
Conservative: 6329 (16.5%)
Labour: 18059 (47%)
Lib Dem: 6969 (18.2%)
BNP: 3301 (8.6%)
UKIP: 1731 (4.5%)
Independent: 712 (1.9%)
Others: 1285 (3.3%)
MAJORITY: 11090 (28.9%)

2015 Result:
Labour Michael Dugher 21,079 54.7 +7.7
UKIP Robert Swiffen 9,045 23.5 +19.0
Conservative Katharine Harborne 5,622 14.6 -1.9
Liberal Democrat Ruth Coleman-Taylor 1,217 3.2 -15.0
Yorkshire First Tony Devoy 647 1.7 N/A
English Democrat Kevin Riddiough 440 1.1 N/A
TUSC Ralph Dyson 364 0.9 N/A
Vapers in Power Billy Marsden 103 0.3 N/A
Majority 12,034 31.2 +2.3
Turnout 38,517 55.7 -0.4

Leave Vote: 71%

Sitting MP: Michael Dugher (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

3. Don Valley

2010 Result:
Conservative: 12877 (29.7%)
Labour: 16472 (37.9%)
Lib Dem: 7422 (17.1%)
BNP: 2112 (4.9%)
UKIP: 1904 (4.4%)
English Dem: 1756 (4%)
Independent: 877 (2%)
MAJORITY: 3595 (8.3%)

2015 Result:
Labour Caroline Flint 19,621 46.2 +8.2
Conservative Carl Jackson 10,736 25.3 -4.4
UKIP Guy Aston 9,963 23.5 +19.1
Liberal Democrat Rene Paterson 1,487 3.5 -13.6
TUSC Steve Williams 437 1.0 +1.0
English Democrat Louise Dutton 242 0.6 -3.5
Majority 8,885 20.9 +12.6
Turnout 42,486 59.6 +0.3

Leave Vote: 68.5%

Sitting MP: Caroline Flint (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

On a massive landslide for the Tories this seat could be in contention for them. But only then.

4. Doncaster Central

2010 Result:
Conservative: 10340 (24.8%)
Labour: 16569 (39.7%)
Lib Dem: 8795 (21.1%)
BNP: 1762 (4.2%)
UKIP: 1421 (3.4%)
English Dem: 1816 (4.4%)
Independent: 970 (2.3%)
Others: 72 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 6229 (14.9%)

2015 Result:
Labour Rosie Winterton 19,840 49.1 +9.4
UKIP Chris Hodgson 9,747 24.1 +20.7
Conservative Zoe Metcalfe 8,386 20.7 −4.0
Liberal Democrat John Brown 1,717 4.2 −16.8
TUSC Mev Akram 421 1.0 +1.0
English Democrat David Burnett 309 0.8 −3.6
Majority 10,093 25.0 +10.1
Turnout 40,420 56.8 +1.3

Leave Vote: 66.7%

Sitting MP: Rosie Winterton (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

5. Doncaster North

2010 Result:
Conservative: 8728 (21%)
Labour: 19637 (47.3%)
Lib Dem: 6174 (14.9%)
BNP: 2818 (6.8%)
UKIP: 1797 (4.3%)
English Dem: 2148 (5.2%)
TUSC: 181 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 10909 (26.3%)

2015 Result:
Labour Ed Miliband 20,708 52.4 +5.1
UKIP Kim Parkinson 8,928 22.6 +18.3
Conservative Mark Fletcher 7,235 18.3 −2.7
Liberal Democrat Penny Baker 1,005 2.5 −12.3
Green Pete Kennedy 757 1.9 +1.9
English Democrat David Allen 448 1.1 −4.0
TUSC Mary Jackson 258 0.7 +0.2
Monster Raving Loony Nick the Flying Brick 162 0.4 +0.4
Majority 11,780 29.8 +3.5
Turnout 39,501 55.7 −1.6

Leave Vote: 71.7%

Sitting MP: Ed Miliband (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

6. Penistone & Stocksbridge

2010 Result:
Conservative: 14516 (31.2%)
Labour: 17565 (37.8%)
Lib Dem: 9800 (21.1%)
BNP: 2207 (4.7%)
UKIP: 1936 (4.2%)
English Dem: 492 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 3049 (6.6%)

2015 Result:
Labour Angela Smith 19,691 42.0 +4.3
Conservative Steven Jackson 12,968 27.7 -3.5
UKIP Graeme Waddicar 10,738 22.9 +18.8
Liberal Democrat Rosalyn Gordon 2,957 6.3 -14.8
English Democrat Colin Porter 500 1.1 0.0
Majority 6,723 14.3
Turnout 46,854 65.9

Sitting MP: Angela Smith (Lab)
Prediction: Conservative gain

The majority here doubled last time but that is a false figure given the quintupling of the UKIP vote. I think Ms Smith is in deep trouble and this seat will be gained by the Tories.,

7. Rother Valley

2010 Result:
Conservative: 13281 (28.4%)
Labour: 19147 (40.9%)
Lib Dem: 8111 (17.3%)
BNP: 3606 (7.7%)
UKIP: 2613 (5.6%)
MAJORITY: 5866 (12.5%)

2015 Result:
Labour Kevin Barron 20,501 43.6 +2.7
UKIP Allen Cowles 13,204 28.1 +22.5
Conservative Gareth Streeter 10,945 23.3 -5.1
Liberal Democrat Robert Teal 1,992 4.2 -13.1
English Democrat Sharon Pilling 377 0.8 N/A
Majority 7,297 15.5 +3.0
Turnout 47,019 63.3

Leave Vote: 66.5%

Sitting MP: Kevin Barron (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

A big UKIP vote here. Could become a marginal and if the Tories get a landslide of 130 seats or over, this could fall.

8. Rotherham

2010 Result:
Conservative: 6279 (16.7%)
Labour: 16741 (44.6%)
Lib Dem: 5994 (16%)
BNP: 3906 (10.4%)
UKIP: 2220 (5.9%)
Independent: 2366 (6.3%)
MAJORITY: 10462 (27.9%)

BY ELECTION
Sarah Champion (Labour) 9866 46.3% (1.7%)
Jane Collins (UKIP) 4648 21.8% (
15.9%)
Marlene Guest (BNP) 1804 8.5% (-1.9%)
Yvonne Ridley (Respect) 1778 8.3% (n/a)
Simon Wilson (Conservative) 1157 5.4% (-11.3%)
David Wildgoose (English Democrats) 703 3.3% (n/a)
Simon Copley (Independent) 582 2.7% (n/a)
Michael Beckett (Liberal Democrat) 451 2.1% (-13.9%)
Ralph Dyson (TUSC) 261 1.2% (n/a)
Paul Dickson (Independent) 51 0.2% (n/a)
Clint Bristow (no description) 29 0.1% (n/a)
MAJORITY 5218 24.5%
Turnout 33.9% (-25.1%)

2015 Result:
Labour Sarah Champion 19,860 52.5 +7.9
UKIP Jane Collins 11,414 30.2 +24.3
Conservative Sebastian Lowe 4,656 12.3 −4.4
Liberal Democrat Janice Middleton 1,093 2.9 −13.1
TUSC Pat McLaughlin 409 1.1 N/A
BNP Adam Walker 225 0.6 −9.8
English Democrat Dean Walker 166 0.4 N/A
Majority 8,446 22.3 −5.6
Turnout 37,823 59.4 +0.4

Leave Vote: 68.8%

Sitting MP: Sarah Champion (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

9. Sheffield Brightside & Hillsborough

2010 Result:
Conservative: 4468 (11.5%)
Labour: 21400 (55%)
Lib Dem: 7768 (20%)
BNP: 3026 (7.8%)
UKIP: 1596 (4.1%)
TUSC: 656 (1.7%)
MAJORITY: 13632 (35%)

2015 Result:
Labour Gill Furniss 14,087 62.5 +5.9
UKIP Steven Winstone 4,497 20.0 -2.1
Liberal Democrat Shaffaq Mohammed 1,385 6.1 +1.6
Conservative Spencer Pitfield 1,267 5.6 -5.4
Green Christine Gilligan Kubo 938 4.2 -0.1
Yorkshire First Stevie Manion 349 1.5 1.5
Give Me Back Elmo Bobby Smith 58 0.2 0.2
Majority 9,590 42.5 +8.8
Turnout 22,581 33.2

Leave Vote: 60%

Sitting MP: Gill Furniss (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

10. Sheffield Central

2010 Result:
Conservative: 4206 (10.1%)
Labour: 17138 (41.3%)
Lib Dem: 16973 (40.9%)
BNP: 903 (2.2%)
Green: 1556 (3.8%)
UKIP: 652 (1.6%)
Independent: 40 (0.1%)
MAJORITY: 165 (0.4%)

2015 Result:
Labour Paul Blomfield 24,308 55.0 +13.7
Green Jillian Creasy 6,999 15.8 +12.1
Conservative Stephanie Roe 4,917 11.1 +1.0
Liberal Democrat Joe Otten 4,278 9.7 -31.2
UKIP Dominic Cook 3,296 7.5 +5.9
Communist Steve Andrew 119 0.3 +0.3
Pirate Andy Halsall 113 0.3 N/A
English Democrat Elizabeth Breed 68 0.2 +0.2
Above and Beyond Party Thom Brown 42 0.1 +0.1
Workers Revolutionary Michael Driver 33 0.1 +0.1
Majority 17,309 39.2 +38.8
Turnout 44,173 57.4 -2.2

Leave Vote: 32%

Sitting MP: Paul Blomfield (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

11. Sheffield Hallam

2010 Result:
Conservative: 12040 (23.5%)
Labour: 8228 (16.1%)
Lib Dem: 27324 (53.4%)
Green: 919 (1.8%)
UKIP: 1195 (2.3%)
English Dem: 586 (1.1%)
Christian: 250 (0.5%)
Independent: 429 (0.8%)
Others: 164 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 15284 (29.9%)

2015 Result:
Liberal Democrat Nick Clegg 22,215 40.0 −13.4
Labour Oliver Coppard 19,862 35.8 +19.7
Conservative Ian Walker 7,544 13.6 −9.9
UKIP Joe Jenkins 3,575 6.4 +4.1
Green Peter Garbutt 1,772 3.2 +1.4
Independent Carlton Reeve 249 0.4 N/A
English Democrat Steve Clegg 167 0.3 −0.8
Independent Jim Stop the Fiasco Wild 97 0.2 N/A
Majority 2,353 4.2 -25.7
Turnout 55,481 75.3 +1.6

Leave Vote: 34%

Sitting MP: Nick Clegg (LibDem)
Prediction: LibDem hold

12. Sheffield Heeley

2010 Result:
Conservative: 7081 (17.3%)
Labour: 17409 (42.6%)
Lib Dem: 11602 (28.4%)
BNP: 2260 (5.5%)
Green: 989 (2.4%)
UKIP: 1530 (3.7%)
MAJORITY: 5807 (14.2%)

2015 Result:
Labour Louise Haigh 20,269 48.2 +5.6
UKIP Howard Denby 7,315 17.4 +13.7
Conservative Stephen Castens 6,792 16.2 -1.2
Liberal Democrat Simon Clement-Jones 4,746 11.3 -17.1
Green Rita Wilcock 2,566 6.1 +3.7
TUSC Alan Munro 238 0.6 +0.6
English Democrat David Haslett 122 0.3 +0.3
Majority 12,954 30.8
Turnout 42,048 60.7

Leave Vote: 57.1%

Sitting MP: Louise Haigh (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

13. Sheffield South East

2010 Result:
Conservative: 7202 (17.4%)
Labour: 20169 (48.7%)
Lib Dem: 9664 (23.3%)
BNP: 2345 (5.7%)
UKIP: 1889 (4.6%)
Others: 139 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 10505 (25.4%)

2015 Result:
Labour Clive Betts 21,439 51.4 +2.7
UKIP Steven Winstone 9,128 21.9 +17.3
Conservative Matt Sleat 7,242 17.4 0.0
Liberal Democrat Gail Smith 2,226 5.3 -18.0
Green Linda Duckenfield 1,117 2.7 +2.7
CISTA Jen Battersby 207 0.5 +0.5
TUSC Ian Whitehouse 185 0.4 +0.4
English Democrat Matthew Roberts 141 0.3 +0.3
Majority 12,311 29.5 +4.1
Turnout 41,685 59.2 -2.3

Leave Vote: 66.3%

Sitting MP: Clive Betts (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

14. Wentworth & Dearne

2010 Result:
Conservative: 7396 (17.6%)
Labour: 21316 (50.6%)
Lib Dem: 6787 (16.1%)
BNP: 3189 (7.6%)
UKIP: 3418 (8.1%)
MAJORITY: 13920 (33.1%)

2015 Result:
Labour John Healey 24,571 56.9 +6.3
UKIP Mike Hookem 10,733 24.9 +16.7
Conservative Michael Naughton 6,441 14.9 -2.7
Liberal Democrat Edwin Simpson 1,135 2.6 -13.5
English Democrat Alan England 309 0.7 N/A
Majority 13,838 32.0
Turnout 43,189 58.1

Leave Vote: 70.3%

Sitting MP: John Healey (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

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General Election Predictions

General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 50. Lincolnshire

2 May 2017 at 21:42

LINCOLNSHIRE

Seats: 7
Current Political Makeup: Con 7
Predicted Political Makeup after June 8: Con 7

1. Boston & Skegness

2010 Result:
Conservative: 21325 (49.4%)
Labour: 8899 (20.6%)
Lib Dem: 6371 (14.8%)
BNP: 2278 (5.3%)
UKIP: 4081 (9.5%)
Independent: 171 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 12426 (28.8%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Matt Warman 18,981 43.8 -5.7
UKIP Robin Hunter-Clarke 14,645 33.8 +24.3
Labour Paul Kenny 7,142 16.5 -4.2
Liberal Democrat David Watts 1,015 2.3 -12.4
Green Victoria Percival 800 1.8 N/A
An Independence from Europe Chris Pain 324 0.7 N/A
Independent Peter Johnson 170 0.4 N/A
The Pilgrim Party Lyn Luxton 143 0.3 N/A
BNP Robert West 119 0.3 -5.0
Majority 4,336 10.0 -18.8
Turnout 43,339 63.9 +2.8

Leave Vote: 75.6%

Sitting MP: Matt Warman (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

This is Britain’s most Brexit oriented seat, and it has a Remain supporting Tory MP in Matt Warman. UKIP leader Paul Nuttall is standing here and will have high hopes given a majority of only a tad more than 4,000. However, he’s got his work cut out given that he’s the leader of a political party and won’t be able to spend all his time on local campaigning. A lot will depend on how many locals consider Brexit to be the most important issue they’re voting on. I think Matt Warman will hang on if the Tory campaign remains geared towards giving Theresa May a strong mandate.

2. Gainsborough

2010 Result:
Conservative: 24266 (49.3%)
Labour: 7701 (15.6%)
Lib Dem: 13707 (27.8%)
BNP: 1512 (3.1%)
UKIP: 2065 (4.2%)
MAJORITY: 10559 (21.4%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Edward Leigh 25,949 52.7 +3.4
Labour David Prescott 10,500 21.3 +5.7
UKIP John Saxon6 7,727 15.7 +11.5
Liberal Democrat Lesley Rollings 3,290 6.7 -21.2
Green Geoff Barnes 1,290 2.6 +2.6
Lincolnshire Independent Chris Darcel 505 1.0 +1.0
Majority 15,449 31.4 +10.0
Turnout 48,261 67.3 -1.0

Leave Vote: 62%

Sitting MP: Sir Edward Leigh (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

3. Grantham & Stamford

2010 Result:
Conservative: 26552 (50.3%)
Labour: 9503 (18%)
Lib Dem: 11726 (22.2%)
BNP: 2485 (4.7%)
UKIP: 1604 (3%)
Others: 929 (1.8%)
MAJORITY: 14826 (28.1%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Nick Boles11 28,399 52.8 +2.5
UKIP Marietta King 9,410 17.5 +14.5
Labour Barrie Fairbairn 9,070 16.9 −1.1
Liberal Democrat Harrish Bisnauthsing 3,263 6.1 −16.1
Green Aidan Campbell 1,872 3.5 N/A
Independent Ian Selby 1,017 1.9 N/A
Lincolnshire Independent Jan Hansen 724 1.3 −0.4
Majority 18,989 35.3 +7.2
Turnout 53,755 66.2 −1.8

Leave Vote: 61%

Sitting MP: Nicholas Boles (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

4. Lincoln

2010 Result:
Conservative: 17163 (37.5%)
Labour: 16105 (35.2%)
Lib Dem: 9256 (20.2%)
BNP: 1367 (3%)
UKIP: 1004 (2.2%)
English Dem: 604 (1.3%)
Independent: 222 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 1058 (2.3%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Karl McCartney 19,976 42.6 +5.1
Labour Lucy Rigby 18,533 39.6 +4.3
UKIP Nick Smith 5,721 12.2 +10.0
Liberal Democrat Ross Pepper 1,992 4.3 -16.0
TUSC Elaine Smith 344 0.7 +0.7
Lincolnshire Independent Helen Powell 286 0.6 +0.6
Majority 1,443 3.1
Turnout 46,852 63.2

Leave Vote: 57.4%

Sitting MP: Karl McCartney (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

In 2015 I predicted Karl McCartney would lose. He didn’t and if he didn’t lose then, there’s no reason to think he will this time unless there has been a huge demographic change which I am not aware of.

5. Louth & Horncastle

2010 Result:
Conservative: 25065 (49.6%)
Labour: 8760 (17.3%)
Lib Dem: 11194 (22.2%)
BNP: 2199 (4.4%)
UKIP: 2183 (4.3%)
English Dem: 517 (1%)
Others: 576 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 13871 (27.5%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Victoria Atkins6 25,755 51.2 +1.5
UKIP Colin Mair 10,778 21.4 +17.1
Labour Matthew Jason Brown 9,077 18.0 +0.7
Liberal Democrat Lisa Gabriel 2,255 4.5 -17.7
Green Romy Rayner 1,549 3.1 +3.1
Lincolnshire Independent Daniel Simpson 659 1.3 +0.2
Monster Raving Loony Peter Hill7 263 0.5 +0.5
Majority 14,977 29.8
Turnout 50,336 67.8

Leave Vote: 68.9%

Sitting MP: Victoria Atkins (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

6. Sleaford & North Hykeham

2010 Result:
Conservative: 30719 (51.6%)
Labour: 10051 (16.9%)
Lib Dem: 10814 (18.2%)
BNP: 1977 (3.3%)
UKIP: 2163 (3.6%)
Others: 3806 (6.4%)
MAJORITY: 19905 (33.4%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Stephen Phillips 34,805 56.2 +4.6
Labour Jason Pandya-Wood 10,690 17.3 +0.4
UKIP Steven Hopkins 9,716 15.7 +12.1
Liberal Democrat Matthew Holden 3,500 5.7 -12.5
Lincolnshire Independent Marianne Overton 3,233 5.2 -1.2
Majority 24,115 38.9
Turnout 61,944 70.2

Leave Vote: 61.6%

Sitting MP: Caroline Johnson (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

7. South Holland & the Deepings

2010 Result:
Conservative: 29639 (59.1%)
Labour: 7024 (14%)
Lib Dem: 7759 (15.5%)
BNP: 1796 (3.6%)
Green: 724 (1.4%)
UKIP: 3246 (6.5%)
MAJORITY: 21880 (43.6%)

2015 Result:
Conservative John Hayes 29,303 59.6 +0.5
UKIP David Parsons6 10,736 21.8 +15.4
Labour Matthew Mahabadi 6,122 12.4 -1.6
Green Daniel Wilshire7 1,580 3.2 +1.8
Liberal Democrat George Smid8 1,466 3.0 -12.5
Majority 18,567 37.7
Turnout 49,207 63.9

Leave Vote: 71.1%

Sitting MP: John Hayes (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

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General Election Predictions

General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 49. Oxfordshire

1 May 2017 at 22:57

OXFORDSHIRE

Seats: 6
Current Political Makeup: Con 5, Lab 1
Predicted Political Makeup after June 8: Con 5, Lab 1

1. Banbury

2010 Result:
Conservative: 29703 (52.8%)
Labour: 10773 (19.2%)
Lib Dem: 11476 (20.4%)
Green: 959 (1.7%)
UKIP: 2806 (5%)
Independent: 524 (0.9%)
MAJORITY: 18227 (32.4%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Victoria Prentis16 30,749 53.0 +0.2
Labour Sean Woodcock 12,354 21.3 +2.1
UKIP Dickie Bird17 8,050 13.9 +8.9
Liberal Democrat John Howson 3,440 5.9 -14.5
Green Ian Middleton18 2,686 4.6 +2.9
National Health Action Roseanne Edwards 729 1.3 N/A
Majority 18,395 31.7 -0.7
Turnout 58,008 65.619 +0.9

Leave Vote 50.1%

Sitting MP: Victoria Prentis (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

2. Henley

2010 Result:
Conservative: 30054 (56.2%)
Labour: 5835 (10.9%)
Lib Dem: 13466 (25.2%)
BNP: 1020 (1.9%)
Green: 1328 (2.5%)
UKIP: 1817 (3.4%)
MAJORITY: 16588 (31%)

2015 Result:
Conservative John Howell6 32,292 58.5 +2.3
Labour Sam Juthani7 6,917 12.5 +1.6
Liberal Democrat Sue Cooper8 6,205 11.2 -13.9
UKIP Christopher Jones9 6,007 10.9 +7.5
Green Mark Stevenson10 3,815 6.9 +4.4
Majority 25,375 45.9
Turnout 55,236 70.9 -0.5

Leave Vote: 43.1%

Sitting MP: John Howell (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

3. Oxford East

2010 Result:
Conservative: 9727 (18.8%)
Labour: 21938 (42.5%)
Lib Dem: 17357 (33.6%)
Green: 1238 (2.4%)
UKIP: 1202 (2.3%)
Others: 189 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 4581 (8.9%)

2015 Result:
Labour Andrew Smith 25,356 50.0 +7.5
Conservative Melanie Magee 10,076 19.9 +1.0
Green Ann Duncan8 5,890 11.6 +9.2
Liberal Democrat Alasdair Murray9 5,453 10.8 -22.8
UKIP Ian Macdonald10 3,451 6.8 +4.5
Independent Chaka Artwell11 160 0.3 +0.3
Monster Raving Loony Mad Hatter11 145 0.3 +0.3
TUSC James Morbin12 108 0.2 +0.2
Socialist (GB) Kevin Parkin13 50 0.1 +0.1
Majority 15,280 30.1
Turnout 64.214

Sitting MP: Andrew Smith (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

4. Oxford West & Abingdon

2010 Result:
Conservative: 23906 (42.3%)
Labour: 5999 (10.6%)
Lib Dem: 23730 (42%)
Green: 1184 (2.1%)
UKIP: 1518 (2.7%)
Others: 143 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 176 (0.3%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Nicola Blackwood 26,153 45.7 +3.4
Liberal Democrat Layla Moran 16,571 28.9 −13.1
Labour Sally Copley 7,274 12.7 +2.1
UKIP Alan Harris 3,963 6.9 +4.2
Green Larry Sanders 2,497 4.4 +2.3
National Health Action Helen Salisbury 723 1.3 N/A
Socialist (GB) Mike Foster 66 0.1 N/A
Majority 9,582 16.7
Turnout 57,247 75.2 +5.0

Leave Vote: 38%

Sitting MP: Nicola Blackwood (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

5 Wantage

2010 Result:
Conservative: 29284 (52%)
Labour: 7855 (13.9%)
Lib Dem: 15737 (27.9%)
Green: 1044 (1.9%)
UKIP: 2421 (4.3%)
MAJORITY: 13547 (24%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Ed Vaizey 31,092 53.3 +1.3
Labour Stephen Webb 9,343 16.0 +2.1
Liberal Democrat Alex Meredith 7,611 13.1 -14.9
UKIP Lee Upcraft 7,288 12.5 +8.2
Green Kate Prendergast 2,986 5.1 +3.3
Majority 21,749 37.3 +17.2
Turnout 58,320 70.3 +0.3

Leave Vote: 46.5%

Sitting MP: Ed Vaizey (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

6. Witney

2010 Result:
Conservative: 33973 (58.8%)
Labour: 7511 (13%)
Lib Dem: 11233 (19.4%)
Green: 2385 (4.1%)
UKIP: 2001 (3.5%)
Independent: 166 (0.3%)
Others: 500 (0.9%)
MAJORITY: 22740 (39.4%)

2015 Result:
Conservative David Cameron 35,201 60.2 +1.4
Labour Duncan Enright 10,046 17.2 +4.2
UKIP Simon Strutt 5,352 9.2 +5.7
Liberal Democrat Andy Graham 3,953 6.8 −12.7
Green Stuart MacDonald 2,970 5.1 +0.9
National Health Action Clive Peedell 616 1.1 N/A
Wessex Regionalist Colin Bex 110 0.2 +0.1
Independent Christopher Tompson 94 0.2 N/A
Reduce VAT in Sport Vivien Saunders 56 0.1 N/A
Give Me Back Elmo Bobby Smith 37 0.1 N/A
Land Party Deek Jackson 35 0.1 N/A
Independent Nathan Handley 12 0.02 N/A
Majority 25,155 43 +3.6
Turnout 58,482 73.3 +0.0

Sitting MP: Robert Courts (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

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General Election Predictions

General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 48: East Yorkshire & Humberside

1 May 2017 at 22:24

EAST YORKSHIRE & HUMBERSIDE

Seats: 10
Current Political Makeup: Con 5, Lab 5
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 7, Labour 3

1. Beverley & Holderness

2010 Result:
Conservative: 25063 (47.1%)
Labour: 11224 (21.1%)
Lib Dem: 12076 (22.7%)
BNP: 2080 (3.9%)
Green: 686 (1.3%)
UKIP: 1845 (3.5%)
Independent: 225 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 12987 (24.4%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Graham Stuart 25,363 48.1 +1.0
Labour Margaret Pinder 13,160 25.0 +3.9
UKIP Gary Shores 8,794 16.7 +13.2
Liberal Democrat Denis Healy 2,900 5.5 -17.2
Green Richard Howarth 1,802 3.4 +2.1
Yorkshire First Lee Walton 658 1.2 +1.2
Majority 12,203 23.2
Turnout 52,677 65.2

Leave Vote: 58.7%

Sitting MP: Graham Stuart (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

2. Brigg & Goole

2010 Result:
Conservative: 19680 (44.9%)
Labour: 14533 (33.1%)
Lib Dem: 6414 (14.6%)
BNP: 1498 (3.4%)
UKIP: 1749 (4%)
MAJORITY: 5147 (11.7%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Andrew Percy 22,946 53.0 +8.2
Labour Jacky Crawford 11,770 27.2 -5.9
UKIP David Jeffreys 6,694 15.5 +11.5
Green Natalie Hurst 915 2.1 +2.1
Liberal Democrat Liz Leffman 764 1.8 -12.9
Independent Trevor Dixon 153 0.4 +0.4
An Independence from Europe Ray Spalding 28 0.1 +0.1
Majority 11,176 25.8
Turnout 43,270 63.2

Leave Vote: 66.2%

Sitting MP: Andrew Percy (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

3. Cleethorpes

2010 Result:
Conservative: 18939 (42.1%)
Labour: 14641 (32.6%)
Lib Dem: 8192 (18.2%)
UKIP: 3194 (7.1%)
MAJORITY: 4298 (9.6%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Martin Vickers 21,026 46.6 +4.5
Labour Peter Keith 13,133 29.1 -3.4
UKIP Stephen Harness 8,356 18.5 +11.4
Liberal Democrat Roy Horobin 1,346 3.0 -15.2
Green Carol Thornton 1,013 2.2 +2.2
TUSC Malcolm Morland 215 0.5 +0.5
Majority 7,893 17.5
Turnout 45,089 63.9

Leave Vote: 69.5%

Sitting MP: Martin Vickers (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

4. East Yorkshire

2010 Result:
Conservative: 24328 (47.5%)
Labour: 10401 (20.3%)
Lib Dem: 10842 (21.2%)
BNP: 1865 (3.6%)
Green: 762 (1.5%)
UKIP: 2142 (4.2%)
Others: 914 (1.8%)
MAJORITY: 13486 (26.3%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Greg Knight 25,276 50.6 +3.1
Labour Kevin Hickson 10,343 20.7 +0.4
UKIP Steph Todd 8,955 17.9 +13.7
Liberal Democrat Robert Adamson 2,966 5.9 -15.2
Green Mark Maloney 1,731 3.5 +2.0
Yorkshire First Stewart Arnold 720 1.4 +1.4
Majority 14,933 29.9 +3.6
Turnout 49,991 61.7 -2.1

Leave Vote: 63.7%

Sitting MP: Greg Knight (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

5. Great Grimsby

Conservative: 10063 (30.5%)
Labour: 10777 (32.7%)
Lib Dem: 7388 (22.4%)
BNP: 1517 (4.6%)
UKIP: 2043 (6.2%)
Independent: 835 (2.5%)
Others: 331 (1%)
MAJORITY: 714 (2.2%)

2015 Result:
Labour Melanie Onn 13,414 39.8 +7.1
Conservative Marc Jones 8,874 26.3 −4.2
UKIP Victoria Ayling 8,417 25.0 +18.8
Liberal Democrat Steve Beasant 1,680 5.0 −17.4
Green Vicky Dunn 783 2.3 +2.3
Independent Gary Calder 390 1.2 +1.2
TUSC Val O’Flynn 173 0.5 +0.5
Majority 4,540 13.5 +11.3
Turnout 33,731 57.7 +3.9

Leave Vote: 69.2%

Sitting MP: Melanie Onn (Lab)
Prediction: Conservative gain

In 2010 the Conservatives came very close to taking this seat. The Tory candidate then switched to UKIP and stood in 2015. She’s been replaced this time by one of their MEPs, Mike Hookem. If the Conservatives don’t win this seat this time they never will. I suspect it’ll happen.

6. Haltemprice & Howden

2010 Result:
Conservative: 24486 (50.2%)
Labour: 7630 (15.7%)
Lib Dem: 12884 (26.4%)
BNP: 1583 (3.2%)
Green: 669 (1.4%)
English Dem: 1485 (3%)
MAJORITY: 11602 (23.8%)

2015 Result
Conservative David Davis 26,414 54.2 +3.9
Labour Edward Hart 10,219 21.0 +5.3
UKIP John Kitchener 6,781 13.9 N/A
Liberal Democrat Carl Minns 3,055 6.3 -20.2
Green Tim Greene 1,809 3.7 +2.3
Yorkshire First Diana Wallis 479 1.0 N/A
Majority 16,195 33.2
Turnout 48,757 68.5

Leave Vote: 55.2%

Sitting MP: David Davis (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

7. Hull East

2010 Result:
Conservative: 5667 (16.6%)
Labour: 16387 (47.9%)
Lib Dem: 7790 (22.8%)
UKIP: 2745 (8%)
English Dem: 715 (2.1%)
Others: 880 (2.6%)
MAJORITY: 8597 (25.1%)

2015 Result:
Labour Karl Turner 18,180 51.7 +3.8
UKIP Richard Barrett 7,861 22.4 +14.3
Conservative Christine Mackay 5,593 15.9 -0.7
Liberal Democrat David Nolan 2,294 6.5 -16.3
Green Sarah Walpole 806 2.3 +2.3
Yorkshire First Martin Clayton 270 0.8 +0.8
National Front Mike Cooper 86 0.2 -2.3
Social Democratic Val Hoodless 54 0.2 +0.2
Majority 10,319 29.4
Turnout 35,144 53.6

Leave Vote: 72.8%

Sitting MP: Karl Turner (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

8. Hull North

2010 Result:
Conservative: 4365 (13.1%)
Labour: 13044 (39.2%)
Lib Dem: 12403 (37.3%)
BNP: 1443 (4.3%)
Green: 478 (1.4%)
UKIP: 1358 (4.1%)
English Dem: 200 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 641 (1.9%)

2015 Result:
Labour Diana Johnson 18,661 52.8 +13.6
UKIP Sergi Singh 5,762 16.3 +12.2
Conservative Dehenna Davison 5,306 15.0 +1.9
Liberal Democrat Mike Ross 3,175 9.0 -28.3
Green Martin Deane 2,066 5.8 +4.4
Yorkshire First Vicky Butler 366 1.0 +1.0
Majority 12,899 36.5
Turnout 35,336 55.5

Leave Vote: 59.8%

Sitting MP: Diana Johnson (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

9. Hull West & Hessle

2010 Result:
Conservative: 6361 (20.2%)
Labour: 13378 (42.5%)
Lib Dem: 7636 (24.2%)
BNP: 1416 (4.5%)
UKIP: 1688 (5.4%)
English Dem: 876 (2.8%)
TUSC: 150 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 5742 (18.2%)

2015 Result:
Labour Alan Johnson 15,646 49.2 +6.7
UKIP Paul Salvidge 6,313 19.9 +14.5
Conservative Jo Barker 5,561 17.5 −2.7
Liberal Democrat Claire Thomas 3,169 10.0 −14.3
Green Angela Needham 943 3.0 +3.0
TUSC Paul Spooner 171 0.5 +0.1
Majority 9,333 29.3
Turnout 31,803 53.9

Leave Vote: 68%

Sitting MP: Alan Johnson (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

10. Scunthorpe

2010 Result:
Conservative: 12091 (32.6%)
Labour: 14640 (39.5%)
Lib Dem: 6774 (18.3%)
BNP: 1447 (3.9%)
Green: 396 (1.1%)
UKIP: 1686 (4.6%)
MAJORITY: 2549 (6.9%)

2015 Result:
Labour Nic Dakin 15,393 41.7 +2.1
Conservative Jo Gideon 12,259 33.2 +0.5
UKIP Stephen Howd 6,329 17.1 +12.6
Independent Des Comerford 1,097 3.0 N/A
Green Martin Dwyer 887 2.4 +1.3
Liberal Democrat Simon Dodd 770 2.1 -16.2
Independent Paul Elsom 206 0.6 N/A
Majority 3,134 8.5
Turnout 36,941 57.7

Leave Vote: 68.7%

Sitting MP: Nicholas Dakin (Lab)
Prediction: Conservative gain

If Theresa May manages to frame this as a ‘who would be better at negotiating with the EU – me or Corbyn?’ expect this seat to go Tory. Had UKIP not done so well in 2015 they would have won it last time.

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE

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