General Election Predictions

General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 37. Wales - Clwyd

30 Apr 2017 at 21:54

CLWYD

Seats: 7
Current Political Makeup: Con 3, Lab 4
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 7

1. Aberconwy

2010 Result:
Conservative: 10734 (35.8%)
Labour: 7336 (24.5%)
Lib Dem: 5786 (19.3%)
Plaid Cymru: 5341 (17.8%)
UKIP: 632 (2.1%)
Christian: 137 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 3398 (11.3%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Guto Bebb 12,513 41.5 +5.7
Labour Mary Wimbury 8,514 28.2 +3.8
Plaid Cymru Dafydd Meurig 3,536 11.7 −6.1
UKIP Andrew Haigh 3,467 11.5 +9.4
Liberal Democrats Victor Babu7 1,391 4.6 −14.7
Green Petra Haig8 727 2.4 N/A
Majority 3,999 13.3 +2.0
Turnout 30,148 66.2 −1.0

Sitting MP: Guto Bebb (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

2. Alyn & Deeside

2010 Result:
Conservative: 12885 (32.3%)
Labour: 15804 (39.6%)
Lib Dem: 7308 (18.3%)
Plaid Cymru: 1549 (3.9%)
BNP: 1368 (3.4%)
UKIP: 1009 (2.5%)
MAJORITY: 2919 (7.3%)

2015 Result
Labour Mark Tami 16,540 40.0 +0.4
Conservative Laura Knightly 13,197 31.9 −0.3
UKIP Blair Smillie 7,260 17.6 +15.0
Liberal Democrat Tudor Jones 1,733 4.2 −14.1
Plaid Cymru Jacqueline Hurst 1,608 3.9 +0.0
Green Alasdair Ibbotson 976 2.4 N/A
Majority 3,343 8.1 +0.8
Turnout 41,314 66.6 +1.1

Sitting MP: Mark Tami (Lab)
Prediction: Conservative gain

Not a safe seat but there are only two realistic outcomes here. A Labour hold or a Tory gain. Yes, you read that right. This is a seat where UKIP were apparently leeching votes off Labour. Those votes may well go to the Tories this time.

3. Clwyd South

2010 Result:
Conservative: 10477 (30.2%)
Labour: 13311 (38.4%)
Lib Dem: 5965 (17.2%)
Plaid Cymru: 3009 (8.7%)
BNP: 1100 (3.2%)
UKIP: 819 (2.4%)
MAJORITY: 2834 (8.2%)

2015 Result:
Labour Susan Elan Jones 13,051 37.2 −1.2
Conservative David Nicholls 7 10,649 30.4 +0.2
UKIP Mandy Jones 5,480 15.6 +13.3
Plaid Cymru Mabon ap Gwynfor 3,620 10.3 +1.6
Liberal Democrat Bruce Roberts 1,349 3.8 −13.4
Green Duncan Rees 915 2.6 N/A
Majority 2,402 6.9 -1.3
Turnout 35,064 63.8 −0.7

Sitting MP: Susan Elan Jones (Lab)
Prediction: Conservative gain

The Tories had hopes here in 2010 and 2015. This time they could do it.

4. Clwyd West

2010 Result:
Conservative: 15833 (41.5%)
Labour: 9414 (24.7%)
Lib Dem: 5801 (15.2%)
Plaid Cymru: 5864 (15.4%)
UKIP: 864 (2.3%)
Christian: 239 (0.6%)
Independent: 96 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 6419 (16.8%)

2015 Result:
Conservative David Jones 16,463 43.3 +1.7
Labour Gareth Thomas 9,733 25.6 +0.9
UKIP Warwick Nicholson 4,988 13.1 +10.8
Plaid Cymru Marc Jones 4,651 12.2 −3.2
Liberal Democrat Sarah Lesiter-Burgess 1,387 3.6 −11.6
Socialist Labour Bob English 612 1.6 n/a
Above and Beyond Rory Jepson 194 0.5 n/a
Majority 6,730 17.7 +0.9
Turnout 38,028 64.8 -1.0

Sitting MP: David Jones (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

5. Delyn

2010 Result:
Conservative: 12811 (34.6%)
Labour: 15083 (40.8%)
Lib Dem: 5747 (15.5%)
Plaid Cymru: 1844 (5%)
BNP: 844 (2.3%)
UKIP: 655 (1.8%)
MAJORITY: 2272 (6.1%)

2015 Result:
Labour David Hanson 15,187 40.5 −0.2
Conservative Mark Isherwood 12,257 32.7 −1.9
UKIP Nigel Williams 6,150 16.4 +14.6
Plaid Cymru Paul Rowlinson 1,803 4.8 −0.2
Liberal Democrat Tom Rippeth 1,380 3.7 −11.9
Green Kay Roney 680 1.8 N/A
Majority 2,930 7.8 +1.7
Turnout 37,457 69.8 +0.6

Sitting MP: David Hanson (Lab)
Prediction Conservative gain

A straight Labour/Tory fight here, one which David Hanson won in2015. However, there is little room for complacency as his majority has reduced from more than 11,000 to 2930. UKIP have done well in this seat in all sorts of elections. This seat is more likely to go Tory than not.

6. Vale of Clwyd

2010 Result:
Conservative: 12508 (35.2%)
Labour: 15017 (42.3%)
Lib Dem: 4472 (12.6%)
Plaid Cymru: 2068 (5.8%)
BNP: 827 (2.3%)
UKIP: 515 (1.4%)
Others: 127 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 2509 (7.1%

2015 Result:
James Davies 13,760 39.0 +3.8
Labour Chris Ruane 13,523 38.4 −3.9
UKIP Paul Davies-Cooke8 4,577 13.0 +11.5
Plaid Cymru Mair Rowlands 2,486 7.1 +1.2
Liberal Democrat Gwyn Williams9 915 2.6 −10.0
Majority 237 0.7 Turnout 35,261 62.4 −1.3
Conservative gain from Labour Swing +3.9 - Clwyd

Sitting MP: James Davies (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

A surprise capture for the Conservatives in 2015, but former Labour MP Chris Ruane is standing again. Lots of UKIP votes up for grabs.

7. Wrexham

2010 Result:
Conservative: 8375 (25.4%)
Labour: 12161 (36.9%)
Lib Dem: 8503 (25.8%)
Plaid Cymru: 2029 (6.2%)
BNP: 1134 (3.4%)
UKIP: 774 (2.3%)
MAJORITY: 3658 (11.1%)

2015 Result:
Labour Ian Lucas 12,181 37.2 +0.4
Conservative Andrew Mark Atkinson 10,350 31.6 +6.2
UKIP Niall Plevin-Kelly 5,072 15.5 +13.2
Plaid Cymru Carrie Harper 2,501 7.6 +1.5
Liberal Democrat Rob Walsh 1,735 5.3 −20.5
Green David Munnerley 669 2.0 N/A
Independent Brian Edwards7 211 0.6 N/A
Majority 1,831 5.6 −5.5
Turnout 32,719 64.2 −0.6

Sitting MP: Ian Lucas (Lab)
Prediction: Conservative gain

The Conservatives have always scratched their heads and wondered why they haven’t ever won Wrexham in recent times. They may well stop scratching on June 8th.

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE

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General Election Predictions

General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 36. Devon

30 Apr 2017 at 20:05

DEVON

Seats: 12
Current Political Makeup: Con 11, Lab 1
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 11, Lab 1

1. Central Devon

2010 Result:
Conservative: 27737 (51.5%)
Labour: 3715 (6.9%)
Lib Dem: 18507 (34.4%)
Green: 1044 (1.9%)
UKIP: 2870 (5.3%)
MAJORITY: 9230 (17.1%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Mel Stride 28,436 52.2 +0.7
UKIP John Conway 7,171 13.2 +7.8
Labour Lynne Richards7 6,985 12.8 +5.9
Liberal Democrat Alex White 6,643 12.2 −22.2
Green Andy Williamson 4,866 8.9 +7.0
Independent Arthur Price 347 0.6 N/A
Majority 21,265 39.0
Turnout 54,448 74.9

Leave Vote: 50.9%

Sitting MP: Mel Stride (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

2. East Devon

2010 Result:
Conservative: 25662 (48.3%)
Labour: 5721 (10.8%)
Lib Dem: 16548 (31.2%)
Green: 815 (1.5%)
UKIP: 4346 (8.2%)
MAJORITY: 9114 (17.2%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Hugo Swire 25,401 46.4 −1.9
Independent Claire Wright 13,140 24.0 N/A
UKIP Andrew Chapman 6,870 12.5 +4.4
Labour Steve Race5 5,591 10.2 −0.6
Liberal Democrat Stuart Mole 3,715 6.8 −24.4
Majority 12,261 22.4
Turnout 54,717 73.7

Leave Vote: 50.4%

Sitting MP: Hugo Swire (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

3. Exeter

2010 Result:
Conservative: 17221 (33%)
Labour: 19942 (38.2%)
Lib Dem: 10581 (20.3%)
BNP: 673 (1.3%)
Green: 792 (1.5%)
UKIP: 1930 (3.7%)
Liberal: 1108 (2.1%)
MAJORITY: 2721 (5.2%

2015 Result:
Labour Ben Bradshaw 25,062 46.4 +8.2
Conservative Dom Morris 17,879 33.1 +0.1
UKIP Keith Crawford 5,075 9.4 +5.7
Green Diana Moore 3,491 6.5 +4.9
Liberal Democrat Joel Mason 2,321 4.3 −16.2
TUSC Ed Potts 190 0.4 N/A
Majority 7,183 13.3 +8.1
Turnout 54,018 70.2 +2.5

Leave Vote: 44.8%

Sitting MP: Ben Bradshaw (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

The result here will depend on whether the LibDems can win back the vote they lost so dramatically last time. To be honest I have no idea whether that will happen or not, but given that this is a Remain supporting constituency anything is possible. If the Labour vote goes down a few thousand and the Tories can win back a few thousand from UKIP anything is possible. This seat was a Tory seat for many years in the 80s and 90s and it could be again. But I am going to play safe on this one. Bradshaw has a good reputation locally and may just survive the tsunami.

4. Newton Abbot

2010 Result:
Conservative: 20774 (43%)
Labour: 3387 (7%)
Lib Dem: 20251 (41.9%)
Green: 701 (1.5%)
UKIP: 3088 (6.4%)
Independent: 82 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 523 (1.1%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Anne Marie Morris 22,794 47.5 +4.3
Liberal Democrat Richard Younger-Ross7 11,506 23.9 -18.1
UKIP Rod Peers 6,726 13.9 +7.6
Labour Roy Freer8 4,736 9.8 +2.8
Green Steven Smyth-Bonfield9 2,216 4.6 +3.1
Majority 11,288 23.4 +22.3
Turnout 47,978 69 -0.6

Leave Vote: 56%

Sitting MP: Anne-Marie Morris (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

5. North Devon

2010 Result:
Conservative: 18484 (36%)
Labour: 2671 (5.2%)
Lib Dem: 24305 (47.4%)
BNP: 614 (1.2%)
Green: 697 (1.4%)
UKIP: 3720 (7.2%)
English Dem: 146 (0.3%)
Independent: 588 (1.1%)
Others: 96 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 5821 (11.3%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Peter Heaton-Jones4 22,341 42.7 +6.7
Liberal Democrat Nick Harvey5 15,405 29.4 −17.9
UKIP Steve Crowther6 7,719 14.8 +7.5
Labour Mark Cann4 3,699 7.1 +1.9
Green Ricky Knight4 3,018 5.8 +4.4
Communist Gerry Sables 138 0.3 +0.1
Majority 6,936 13.3 +2.0
Turnout 52,453 70.2 +1.3

Leave Vote: 57%

Sitting MP: Peter Heaton-Jones (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Sir Nick Harvey is restanding for the LibDems and if anyone can win it back he can. However, this is a very Eurosceptic area and in the end that’s what may enable the Tories to hold on.

6. Plymouth Moor View

2010 Result:
Conservative: 13845 (33.3%)
Labour: 15433 (37.2%)
Lib Dem: 7016 (16.9%)
BNP: 1438 (3.5%)
Green: 398 (1%)
UKIP: 3188 (7.7%)
Others: 208 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 1588 (3.8%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Johnny Mercer 16,020 37.6 +4.3
Labour Alison Seabeck 14,994 35.2 -2.0
UKIP Penny Mills 9,152 21.5 +13.8
Liberal Democrat Stuart Bonar 1,265 3.0 -13.9
Green Benjamin Osborn 1,023 2.4 +2.4
TUSC Louise Parker 152 0.4 +0.4
Majority 1,026 2.4
Turnout 42,606 61.6 -0.1

Leave Vote: 68.5%

Sitting MP: Johnny Mercer (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

I called this wrong last time and thought it would stay Labour. However, Mercer has been quite high profile and given this has a huge Leave vote it’s difficult to see him losing it.

7. Plymouth Sutton & Devonport

2010 Result:
Conservative: 15050 (34.3%)
Labour: 13901 (31.7%)
Lib Dem: 10829 (24.7%)
Green: 904 (2.1%)
UKIP: 2854 (6.5%)
Independent: 233 (0.5%)
Others: 123 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 1149 (2.6%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Oliver Colvile 18,120 37.8 +3.5
Labour Luke Pollard 17,597 36.7 +5.0
UKIP Roy Kettle 6,731 14.0 +7.5
Green Libby Brown 3,401 7.1 +5.0
Liberal Democrat Graham Reed 2,008 4.2 -20.5
Communist Laura-Jane Rossington 106 0.2 N/A
Majority 523 1.1
Turnout 47,963 65.5

Leave Vote: 51.3%

Sitting MP: Oliver Colville (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

A genuine three way marginal in 2010, it became a two horse fight last time. Labour will be hoping to retake a seat they held during the entirety of the Blair/Brown years but the resukt here is by no means certain.

8. South West Devon

2010 Result:
Conservative: 27908 (56%)
Labour: 6193 (12.4%)
Lib Dem: 12034 (24.1%)
Green: 641 (1.3%)
UKIP: 3084 (6.2%)
MAJORITY: 15874 (31.8%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Gary Streeter 28,500 56.6 +0.6
Labour Chaz Singh 8,391 16.7 +4.2
UKIP Robin Julian 7,306 14.5 +8.3
Liberal Democrat Tom Davies 3,767 7.5 -16.7
Green Win Scutt 2,408 4.8 +3.5
Majority 20,109 39.9 +8.1
Turnout 50,372 70.9 -0.3

Leave Vote: 55.1%

Sitting MP: Gary Streeter (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

9. Tiverton & Honiton

2010 Result:
Conservative: 27614 (50.3%)
Labour: 4907 (8.9%)
Lib Dem: 18294 (33.3%)
Green: 802 (1.5%)
UKIP: 3277 (6%)
MAJORITY: 9320 (17%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Neil Parish 29,013 54.0 +3.7
UKIP Graham Smith 8,857 16.5 +10.5
Labour Caroline Kolek 6,835 12.7 +3.8
Liberal Democrat Stephen Kearney 5,626 10.5 −22.9
Green Paul Edwards 3,415 6.4 +4.9
Majority 20,156 37.5 +20.5
Turnout 70.5

Leave Vote: 57.8%

Sitting MP: Neil Parrish (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

10. Torbay

2010 Result:
Conservative: 19048 (38.7%)
Labour: 3231 (6.6%)
Lib Dem: 23126 (47%)
BNP: 709 (1.4%)
Green: 468 (1%)
UKIP: 2628 (5.3%)
MAJORITY: 4078 (8.3%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Kevin Foster5 19,551 40.7 +2.0
Liberal Democrat Adrian Sanders 16,265 33.8 −13.2
UKIP Anthony McIntyre6 6,540 13.6 +8.3
Labour Su Maddock7 4,166 8.7 +2.1
Green Paula Hermes8 1,557 3.2 +2.3
Majority 3,286 6.8
Turnout 48,079 63.0 −1.6

Leave Vote: 62.4%

Sitting MP: Kevin Foster (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Regarded as a surefire Tory gain in 2010 it didn’t happen, but five years later it did. The LibDems will hope to retake this, but with such a high leave vote it’s difficult to see.

11. Torridge & West Devon

2010 Result:
Conservative: 25230 (45.7%)
Labour: 2917 (5.3%)
Lib Dem: 22273 (40.3%)
BNP: 766 (1.4%)
Green: 1050 (1.9%)
UKIP: 3021 (5.5%)
MAJORITY: 2957 (5.4%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Geoffrey Cox9 28,774 50.9 +5.2
UKIP Derek Sargent10 10,371 18.3 +12.9
Liberal Democrat Paula Dolphin9 7,483 13.2 −27.1
Labour Mike Sparling 6,015 10.6 +5.4
Green Cathrine Simmons9 3,941 7.0 +5.1
Majority 18,403 32.5 +28.1
Turnout 56,786 72.2 +0.8

Leave Vote: 57.2%

Sitting MP: Geoffrey Cox (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

12. Totnes

2010 Result:
Conservative: 21940 (45.9%)
Labour: 3538 (7.4%)
Lib Dem: 17013 (35.6%)
BNP: 624 (1.3%)
Green: 1181 (2.5%)
UKIP: 2890 (6%)
Independent: 390 (0.8%)
Others: 267 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 4927 (10.3%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Sarah Wollaston17 24,941 53.0 +7.1
UKIP Justin Haque18 6,656 14.1 +8.1
Labour Nicky Williams18 5,988 12.7 +5.3
Green Gill Coombs18 4,845 10.3 +7.8
Liberal Democrat Julian Brazil19 4,667 9.9 -25.7
Majority 18,385 38.8 +28.5
Turnout 47,097 68.6 -1.8

Leave Vote: 53.9%

Sitting MP: Dr Sarah Wollaston (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE

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General Election Predictions

General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 35. Cumbria

30 Apr 2017 at 19:48

CUMBRIA

Seats: 6
Current Political Makeup: Con 3, Lab 2, LibDem 1
Predicted Political Makeup after June 8: Con 4, Lab 1, LibDem 1

1. Barrow and Furness

2010 Result:
Conservative: 16018 (36.3%)
Labour: 21226 (48.1%)
Lib Dem: 4424 (10%)
BNP: 840 (1.9%)
Green: 530 (1.2%)
UKIP: 841 (1.9%)
Independent: 245 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 5208 (11.8%)

2015 Result:
Labour Co-op John Woodcock 18,320 42.3 -5.8
Conservative Simon Fell 17,525 40.5 +4.2
UKIP Nigel Cecil 5,070 11.7 +9.8
Liberal Democrat Clive Peaple 1,169 2.7 -7.3
Green Rob O’Hara 1,061 2.5 +1.3
Independent Ian Jackson 130 0.3 N/A
Majority 795 1.8 -10.0
Turnout 43,275 63.3 -0.4

Leave Vote: 57.3%

Sitting MP: John Woodcock (Lab)
Prediction: Conservative gain

Nearly went to the Tories last time. This time it will. When the Tories do well, this seat goes Tory, as it did in 1983.

2. Carlisle

2010 Result:
Conservative: 16589 (39.3%)
Labour: 15736 (37.3%)
Lib Dem: 6567 (15.6%)
BNP: 1086 (2.6%)
Green: 614 (1.5%)
UKIP: 969 (2.3%)
TUSC: 376 (0.9%)
Others: 263 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 853 (2%)

2015 Result:
Conservative John Stevenson 18,873 44.3 +5.0
Labour Lee Sherriff 16,099 37.8 +0.5
UKIP Fiona Mills 5,277 12.4 +10.1
Green Helen Davison 1,125 2.6 +1.2
Liberal Democrat Loraine Birchall 1,087 2.6 -13.0
Independent Alfred Okam 126 0.3 +0.3
Majority 2,774 6.5 +4.5
Turnout 42,587 64.7 0.0

Leave Vote: 60.1%

Sitting MP: John Stevenson (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

A small majority, but it should be enough given the national picture.

3. Copeland

2010 Result:
Conservative: 15866 (37.1%)
Labour: 19699 (46%)
Lib Dem: 4365 (10.2%)
BNP: 1474 (3.4%)
Green: 389 (0.9%)
UKIP: 994 (2.3%)
MAJORITY: 3833 (9%)

2015 Result:
Labour Jamie Reed 16,750 42.3 −3.7
Conservative Stephen Haraldsen 14,186 35.8 −1.3
UKIP Michael Pye 6,148 15.5 +13.2
Liberal Democrat Danny Gallagher 1,368 3.5 −6.7
Green Allan Todd 1,179 3.0 +2.1
Majority 2,564 6.5 −2.4
Turnout 39,631 63.8 −3.8

2017 By Election Result:
Conservative Trudy Harrison 13,748 44.3 +8.5
Labour Gillian Troughton 11,601 37.3 −4.9
Liberal Democrat Rebecca Hanson 2,252 7.2 +3.8
UKIP Fiona Mills 2,025 6.5 −9.0
Independent Michael Guest 811 2.6 N/A
Green Jack Lenox 515 1.7 −1.3
Independent Roy Ivinson 116 0.4 N/A
Majority 2,147 7.0
Turnout 31,889 51.35 −12.4

Leave Vote: 59.2%

Sitting MP: Trudi Harrison (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

4. Penrith & the Border

2010 Result:
Conservative: 24071 (53.4%)
Labour: 5834 (12.9%)
Lib Dem: 12830 (28.5%)
BNP: 1093 (2.4%)
UKIP: 1259 (2.8%)
MAJORITY: 11241 (24.9%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Rory Stewart 26,202 59.7 +6.3
Labour Lee Rushworth 6,308 14.4 +1.4
UKIP John Stanyer 5,353 12.2 +9.4
Liberal Democrat Neil Hughes 3,745 8.5 -19.9
Green George Burrow 2,313 5.3 +5.3
Majority 19,894 45.3 +20.4
Turnout 43,921 67.4 -2.5

Leave Vote: 55.2%

Sitting MP: Rory Stewart (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

5. Westmorland & Lonsdale

2010 Result:
Conservative: 18632 (36.2%)
Labour: 1158 (2.2%)
Lib Dem: 30896 (60%)
UKIP: 801 (1.6%)
MAJORITY: 12264 (23.8%)

2015 Result:
Liberal Democrat Tim Farron 25,194 51.5 −8.5
Conservative Ann Myatt 16,245 33.2 −3.0
UKIP Alan Piper 3,031 6.2 +4.6
Labour John Bateson 2,661 5.4 +3.2
Green Chris Loynes 1,798 3.7 N/A
Majority 8,949 18.3 -5.5
Turnout 48,929 74.3 -1.5

Leave Vote: 47.1%

Sitting MP: Tim Farron (LibDem)
Prediction: LibDem hold

6. Workington

2010 Result:
Conservative: 13290 (33.9%)
Labour: 17865 (45.5%)
Lib Dem: 5318 (13.5%)
BNP: 1496 (3.8%)
UKIP: 876 (2.2%)
English Dem: 414 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 4575 (11.7%)

2015 Result:
Labour Sue Hayman 16,282 42.3 −3.2
Conservative Rozila Kana 11,596 30.1 −3.7
UKIP Mark Jenkinson 7,538 19.6 +17.4
Liberal Democrat Phill Roberts 1,708 4.4 −4.1
Green Jill Perry 1,149 3.0 +3.0
Independent Roy Ivinson 190 0.5 +0.5
Majority 4,686 12.2
Turnout 38,463 65.6

Leave Vote: 61%

Sitting MP: Sue Hayman (Lab)
Prediction: Conservative gain
Revised: Lab hold

Relatively safe Labour seat, or at least it was. All it takes is for half of the UKIP vote to go to the Conservatives and they will win.

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General Election Predictions

General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 34. Scotland - Glasgow

30 Apr 2017 at 19:25

Scotland – Glasgow

Seats: 11
Current Political Makeup: SNP 11
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: SNP 11

47. Coatbridge, Chryston & Bellshill

2010 Result:
Conservative: 3374 (8.1%)
Labour: 27728 (66.6%)
Lib Dem: 3519 (8.5%)
SNP: 7014 (16.8%)
MAJORITY: 20714 (49.8%)

2015 Result:
SNP Phil Boswell 28,696 56.6 +39.8
Labour Tom Clarke 17,195 33.9 -32.7
Conservative Mhairi Fraser 3,209 6.3 -1.8
UKIP Scott Cairns 1,049 2.1 N/A
Liberal Democrat Robert Simpson 549 1.1 -7.4
Majority 11,501 22.7 n/a
Turnout 50,698 68.6 +9.2

Sitting MP: Phil Boswell (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold

48. Motherwell & Wishaw

2010 Result:
Conservative: 3660 (9.4%)
Labour: 23910 (61.1%)
Lib Dem: 3840 (9.8%)
SNP: 7104 (18.2%)
TUSC: 609 (1.6%)
MAJORITY: 16806 (43%)

2015 Result:
SNP Clare Adamson 15,291 52.5 +11.1
Labour John Pentland 9,068 31.1 -12.7
Conservative Meghan Gallacher 3,991 13.7 +6.5
Liberal Democrats Yvonne Finlayson 761 2.6 +1.1
Majority 6,223 21.4
Turnout 29,111 51.0 +6.0

Sitting MP: Mario Fellows (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold

49. Glasgow East

2010 Result:
Conservative: 1453 (4.5%)
Labour: 19797 (61.6%)
Lib Dem: 1617 (5%)
SNP: 7957 (24.7%)
BNP: 677 (2.1%)
UKIP: 209 (0.6%)
Others: 454 (1.4%)
MAJORITY: 11840 (36.8%)

2015 Result:
SNP Natalie McGarry 24,116 56.9 +32.2
Labour Margaret Curran 13,729 32.4 −29.2
Conservative Andrew Morrison 2,544 6.0 +1.5
UKIP Arthur Thackeray 1,105 2.6 +2.0
Scottish Green Kim Long 381 0.9 N/A
Liberal Democrats Gary McLelland 318 0.7 −4.3
Scottish Socialist Liam McLaughlan 224 0.5 −0.9
Majority 10,387 24.5
Turnout 42,417 60.3 +8.3

Sitting MP: Natalie McGarry (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold

50. Glasgow North East

2010 Result:
Conservative: 1569 (5.3%)
Labour: 20100 (68.3%)
Lib Dem: 2262 (7.7%)
SNP: 4158 (14.1%)
BNP: 798 (2.7%)
TUSC: 187 (0.6%)
Others: 335 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 15942 (54.2%)

2015 Result:
SNP Anne McLaughlin 21,976 58.1 +43.9
Labour Willie Bain 12,754 33.7 -34.7
Conservative Annie Wells 1,769 4.7 -0.7
Scottish Green Zara Kitson8 615 1.6 n/a
Liberal Democrat Eileen Baxendale9 300 0.8 -6.9
CISTA Geoff Johnson 225 0.6 n/a
TUSC Jamie Cocozza10 218 0.6 -0.1
Majority 9,222 24.4
Turnout 37,857 56.8 +7.7

Sitting MP: Ann McLaughlin (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold

51. Glasgow North

2010 Result:
Conservative: 2089 (7.1%)
Labour: 13181 (44.5%)
Lib Dem: 9283 (31.3%)
SNP: 3530 (11.9%)
BNP: 296 (1%)
Green: 947 (3.2%)
TUSC: 287 (1%)
MAJORITY: 3898 (13.2%)

2015 Result:
SNP Patrick Grady5 19,610 53.1 +41.2
Labour Ann McKechin 10,315 27.9 -16.6
Conservative Lauren Hankinson 2,901 7.9 +0.8
Scottish Green Martin Bartos6 2,284 6.2 +3.0
Liberal Democrat Jade O’Neil 1,012 2.7 -28.6
UKIP Jamie Robertson 486 1.3 N/A
TUSC Angela McCormick7 160 0.4 -0.5
CISTA Russell Benson 154 0.4 N/A
Majority 9,295 25.2
Turnout 36,922 61.4 +3.8

Sitting MP: Patrick Grady (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold

52. Glasgow North West

2010 Result:
Conservative: 3537 (9.9%)
Labour: 19233 (54.1%)
Lib Dem: 5622 (15.8%)
SNP: 5430 (15.3%)
BNP: 699 (2%)
Green: 882 (2.5%)
Others: 179 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 13611 (38.3%)

2015 North West:
SNP Carol Monaghan 23,908 54.5 +39.3
Labour John Robertson 13,544 30.9 -23.2
Conservative Roger Lewis 3,692 8.4 -1.5
Liberal Democrat James Harrison6 1,194 2.7 -13.1
Scottish Green Moira Crawford7 1,167 2.7 +0.2
CISTA Chris MacKenzie 213 0.5 N/A
Communist Zoe Hennessy 136 0.3 -0.2
Majority 10,364 23.6
Turnout 43,854 64.1 +5.7

Sitting MP: Carol Mongaghan (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold

53. Glasgow Central

2010 Result:
Conservative: 2158 (7.1%)
Labour: 15908 (52%)
Lib Dem: 5010 (16.4%)
SNP: 5357 (17.5%)
BNP: 616 (2%)
Green: 800 (2.6%)
UKIP: 246 (0.8%)
Others: 485 (1.6%)
MAJORITY: 10551 (34.5%)

2015 Result:
SNP Alison Thewliss8 20,658 52.5 +35.0
Labour Anas Sarwar 12,996 33.1 −19.0
Conservative Simon Bone 2,359 6.0 −1.1
Scottish Green Cass Macgregor 1,559 4.0 +1.3
UKIP Stuart Maskell9 786 2.0 +1.2
Liberal Democrat Chris Young 10 612 1.6 −14.8
CISTA James Marris 171 0.4 N/A
TUSC Andrew Elliott 11 119 0.3 N/A
Socialist Equality Katie Rhodes 58 0.1 N/A
Majority 7,662 19.5
Turnout 39,318 55.4 +4.5

Sitting MP: Alison Thewliss (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold

54. Glasgow South West

2010 Result:
Conservative: 2084 (6.6%)
Labour: 19863 (62.5%)
Lib Dem: 2870 (9%)
SNP: 5192 (16.3%)
BNP: 841 (2.6%)
TUSC: 931 (2.9%)
MAJORITY: 14671 (46.2%)

2015 Result:
SNP Chris Stephens 23,388 57.2 +40.8
Labour Co-op Ian Davidson 13,438 32.8 -29.7
Conservative Gordon McCaskill 2,036 5.0 -1.6
UKIP Sarah Hemy 970 2.4 N/A
Scottish Green Sean Templeton8 507 1.2 N/A
Liberal Democrat Isabel Nelson9 406 1.0 -8.0
Scottish Socialist Bill Bonnar 176 0.4 N/A
Majority 9,950 24.3
Turnout 40,921 61.8 +7.2

Sitting MP: Chris Stephens (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold

55. East Renfrewshire

2010 Result:
Conservative: 15567 (30.4%)
Labour: 25987 (50.8%)
Lib Dem: 4720 (9.2%)
SNP: 4535 (8.9%)
UKIP: 372 (0.7%)
MAJORITY: 10420 (20.4%)

2015 Result:
SNP Kirsten Oswald9 23,013 40.6 +31.7
Labour Jim Murphy10 19,295 34.0 -16.8
Conservative David Montgomery11 12,465 22.0 -8.4
Liberal Democrat Graeme Cowie12 1,069 1.9 -7.3
UKIP Robert Malyn13 888 1.6 +0.9
Majority 3,718 6.6 n/a
Turnout 56,730 81.1 +3.8

Sitting MP: Kirsten Oswald (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold

This seat is constantly mentioned as a Tory target. Unless I’m missing something, they can dream on. UPDATE: A correspondent writes: The reason East Ren is seen as a Tory (and Labour) target is that there is a strong anti-independence vote. Demographically well off and a strong No in the Indy Referendum. So a battle between Labour and Tory to be seen as the best Unionist bet. Labour have selected the Director of Better Together Blair McDougall which gets that message across. Tories won the respective Scottish Parliament seat in a tight 3 way fight which gives them hope they can do well.

56. Glasgow South

2010 Result:
Conservative: 4592 (11.5%)
Labour: 20736 (51.7%)
Lib Dem: 4739 (11.8%)
SNP: 8078 (20.1%)
BNP: 637 (1.6%)
Green: 961 (2.4%)
TUSC: 351 (0.9%)
MAJORITY: 12658 (31.6%)

2015 Result:
SNP Stewart McDonald 26,773 54.9 +34.7
Labour Tom Harris 14,504 29.7 -22.0
Conservative Kyle Thornton 4,752 9.7 -1.7
Scottish Green Alastair Whitelaw6 1,431 2.9 +0.5
Liberal Democrat Ewan Hoyle7 1,019 2.1 -9.7
TUSC Brian Smith8 299 0.6 -0.3
Majority 12,269 25.2
Turnout 48,778 65.9 +4.2

Sitting MP: Stewart McDonald (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold

57. Rutherglen & Hamilton W

2010 Result:
Conservative: 4540 (9.7%)
Labour: 28566 (60.8%)
Lib Dem: 5636 (12%)
SNP: 7564 (16.1%)
UKIP: 675 (1.4%)
MAJORITY: 21002 (44.7%)

2015 Result:
SNP Margaret Ferrier 30,279 52.6 +36.5
Labour Co-op Tom Greatrex 20,304 35.2 -25.6
Conservative Taylor Muir 4,350 7.6 -2.1
UKIP Janice Mackay3 1,301 2.3 +0.8
Liberal Democrat Tony Hughes 1,045 1.8 -10.2
CISTA Yvonne Maclean 336 0.6 n/a
Majority 9,975 17.3 n/a 1
Turnout 57,615 69.6 +8.1

Sitting MP: Margaret Ferrier (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold

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Iain talks to a very 'On Message' Rachel Reeves

Hilarious compilation

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General Election Predictions

General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 33. London - South West

30 Apr 2017 at 18:44

LONDON SOUTH WEST

Seats: 8
Current Political Makeup: Con 6, Lab 1, LibDem 1
Predicted Political Makeup after June 8: Con 5, Lab 1, LibDem 2

Battersea

2010 Result:
Conservative: 23103 (47.3%)
Labour: 17126 (35.1%)
Lib Dem: 7176 (14.7%)
Green: 559 (1.1%)
UKIP: 505 (1%)
Independent: 155 (0.3%)
Others: 168 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 5977 (12.2%)

2015 Results:
Conservative Jane Ellison 26,730 52.4 +5.0
Labour Will Martindale 8 18,792 36.8 +1.7
Liberal Democrat Luke Taylor 9 2,241 4.4 -10.3
Green Joe Stuart 8 1,682 3.3 +2.2
UKIP Christopher Howe 8 1,586 3.1 +2.1
Majority 7,938 15.6 +3.4
Turnout 51,031 67.0 +1.3

Leave Vote: 22%

Sitting MP: Jane Ellison (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Kingston & Surbiton

2010 Result:
Conservative: 20868 (36.5%)
Labour: 5337 (9.3%)
Lib Dem: 28428 (49.8%)
Green: 555 (1%)
UKIP: 1450 (2.5%)
Others: 473 (0.8%)
MAJORITY: 7560 (13.2%)

2015 Result:
Conservative James Berry 23,249 39.2 +2.7
Liberal Democrat Ed Davey 20,415 34.5 -15.3
Labour Lee Godfrey 8,574 14.5 +5.1
UKIP Ben Roberts 4,321 7.3 +4.8
Green Clare Keogh 2,322 3.9 +2.9
Christian Peoples Daniel Gill 198 0.3 -0.1
TUSC Laurel Fogarty 174 0.3 N/A
Majority 2,834 4.8
Turnout 59,253 72.9 +2.5

Leave Vote: 40.8%

Sitting MP: James Berry (Con)
Prediction: LibDem gain

Ed Davey won this seat in 1997 with a wafer thin majority of 56, which rose to more than 15,000 in 2001. But since then the Conservative vote has been on the rise. Davey has only managed to win with such handsome majorities because he has squeezed the Labour vote from 23% down to 9%. In 2015 the Labour vote rose to 14.5%. If Davey can squeeze it again he wins. James Berry was a Remain supporter but that might not be enough to save him, especially if the Greens stand down, as they are threatening to do.

Mitcham & Morden

2010 Result:
Conservative: 11056 (25.2%)
Labour: 24722 (56.4%)
Lib Dem: 5202 (11.9%)
BNP: 1386 (3.2%)
Green: 381 (0.9%)
UKIP: 857 (2%)
Independent: 155 (0.4%)
Others: 38 (0.1%)
MAJORITY: 13666 (31.2%)

2015 Result:
Labour Siobhain McDonagh 27,380 60.7 +4.2
Conservative Paul Holmes 10,458 23.2 −2.1
UKIP Richard Hilton 4,287 9.5 +7.5
Green Mason Redding 1,422 3.2 +2.3
Liberal Democrat Diana Coman 1,378 3.1 −8.8
Christian Peoples Des Coke 217 0.5 N/A
Majority 16,922 37.5 +6.3
Turnout 45,142 65.9 −1.1

Leave Vote: 49%

Sitting MP: Siobhan McDonough (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Putney

2010 Result:
Conservative: 21223 (52%)
Labour: 11170 (27.4%)
Lib Dem: 6907 (16.9%)
BNP: 459 (1.1%)
Green: 591 (1.4%)
UKIP: 435 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 10053 (24.6%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Justine Greening 23,018 53.8 +0.8
Labour Sheila Boswell 12,838 30.0 +2.6
Liberal Democrat Andrew Hallett 2,717 6.3 −10.6
Green Christopher Poole11 2,067 4.8 +3.4
UKIP Patricia Ward 1,989 4.6 +3.5
Animal Welfare Guy Dessoy 184 0.4 N/A
Majority 10,180 23.8 -0.8
Turnout 42,813 67.0 +2.6

Leave Vote: 27.8%
Sitting MP: Justine Greening (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Richmond Park

2010 Result:
Conservative: 29461 (49.7%)
Labour: 2979 (5%)
Lib Dem: 25370 (42.8%)
Green: 572 (1%)
UKIP: 669 (1.1%)
Independent: 84 (0.1%)
Others: 133 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 4091 (6.9%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Zac Goldsmith 34,404 58.2 +8.5
Liberal Democrat Robin Meltzer 11,389 19.3 -23.5
Labour Sachin Patel12 7,296 12.3 +7.3
Green Andrée Frieze13 3,548 6.0 +5.0
UKIP Sam Naz14 2,464 4.2 +3.0
Majority 23,015 38.9 +32.0
Turnout 59,101 76.5 -0.4

Leave Vote: 28.7%

2016 By-Election Result:
Liberal Democrat Sarah Olney 20,510 49.6 +30.4
Independent Zac Goldsmith 18,638 45.1 -13[n 7]
Labour Christian Wolmar 1,515 3.6 -8.6
Monster Raving Loony Howling Laud Hope 184 0.4 N/A
Independent Fiona Syms 173 0.4 N/A
Christian Peoples Dominic Stockford 164 0.4 N/A
One Love Maharaja Jammu and Kashmir 67 0.1 N/A
No label David Powell 32 0.08 N/A
Majority 1,872 4.5
Turnout 41,367 53.4 -23.0

Sitting MP: Sarah Olney (LibDem)
Prediction: Conservative gain

This is not a by-election and the LibDems are going to find it difficult to hold this seat, even though the Greens have stood down. People forget that at the last election Zac Goldsmith got more than 30k votes and won with a 24k majority. I’d be very surprised to find Sarah Olney winning on June 8th, but I suppose stranger things have happened.

Sutton & Cheam

2010 Result:
Conservative: 20548 (42.4%)
Labour: 3376 (7%)
Lib Dem: 22156 (45.7%)
BNP: 1014 (2.1%)
Green: 246 (0.5%)
UKIP: 950 (2%)
English Dem: 106 (0.2%)
Others: 112 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 1608 (3.3%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Paul Scully 20,732 41.5 -0.8
Liberal Democrat Paul Burstow 16,811 33.7 -12.0
Labour Emily Brothers9 5,546 11.1 +4.2
UKIP Angus Dalgleish 5,341 10.7 +8.7
Green Maeve Tomlinson 1,051 2.1 +1.6
National Health Action Dave Ash10 345 0.7 n/a
TUSC Pauline Gorman 79 0.2 n/a
Majority 3,921 7.9
Turnout 49,905 72.1 -0.7

Leave Vote: 51.3%

Sitting MP: Paul Scully (Con)
Prediction: Narrow Conservative hold

I’m split on this one. Paul Scully won by more than anyone thought last time, and there’s a substantial UKIP vote to eat into, but the LibDems have always been strong here. If Paul Burstow was restanding I might have put this down as a LibDem re-gain, but he’s not, so I won’t.

Twickenham

2010 Result:
Conservative: 20343 (34.1%)
Labour: 4583 (7.7%)
Lib Dem: 32483 (54.4%)
BNP: 654 (1.1%)
Green: 674 (1.1%)
UKIP: 868 (1.5%)
Others: 116 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 12140 (20.3%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Tania Mathias 25,580 41.3 +7.2
Liberal Democrat Vince Cable 23,563 38.0 −16.4
Labour Nick Grant 7,129 11.5 +3.8
UKIP Barry Edwards 3,069 4.9 +3.5
Green Tanya Williams 2,463 4.0 +2.8
Christian Dominic Stockford 174 0.3 n/a
Magna Carta David Wedgwood 26 0.0 N/A
Majority 2,017 3.3
Turnout 62,004 77.3 +2.5

Leave Vote: 33.3%
Sitting MP: Tania Mathias (Con)
Prediction: LibDem gain

This was one of the shocks of election night 2015. Vince Cable regaining this seat is by no means a foregone conclusion, but if the LibDems want to have any sort of revival, it’s something he needs to do. If I were him I’d be spending every hour in Twickenham and avoid the media spotlight. I think he’ll just about squeeze home.

Wimbledon

2010 Result:
Conservative: 23257 (49.1%)
Labour: 10550 (22.3%)
Lib Dem: 11849 (25%)
Green: 590 (1.2%)
UKIP: 914 (1.9%)
Christian: 235 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 11408 (24.1%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Stephen Hammond 25,225 52.1 +3.0
Labour Andrew Judge 12,606 26.0 +3.8
Liberal Democrat Shas Sheehan 6,129 12.7 −12.3
UKIP Peter Bucklitsch 2,476 5.1 +3.2
Green Charles Barraball 1,986 4.1 +2.9
Majority 12,619 26.1 +2.0
Turnout 48,422 73.5 +0.5

Leave Vote: 27.3%

Sitting MP: Stephen Hammond (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

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LBC 97.3: Iain Dale interviews Simon Weston

On Remembrance Sunday Iain Dale asks Simon Weston how he marks the day, and at the end they discuss Falklands War hero Ian Dale, who was killed on the Sir Galahad.

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General Election Predictions

General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 32. Hampshire

30 Apr 2017 at 16:24

HAMPSHIRE

Seats: 19
Current Political Makeup: Con 18, Lab 1
Predicted Political Makeup after June 8: Con 19

1. Aldershot

2010 Result:
Conservative: 21203 (46.7%)
Labour: 5489 (12.1%)
Lib Dem: 15617 (34.4%)
UKIP: 2041 (4.5%)
Christian: 231 (0.5%)
Others: 803 (1.8%)
MAJORITY: 5586 (12.3%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Gerald Howarth 23,369 50.6 +3.9
Labour Gary Puffett 8,468 18.3 +6.2
UKIP Bill Walker 8,253 17.9 +13.4
Liberal Democrat Alan Hilliar 4,076 8.8 -25.6
Green Carl Hewitt 2,025 4.4 N/A
Majority 14,901 32.3 +20.0
Turnout 46,191 63.8 +0.3

Leave Vote: 58.1%

Sitting MP: Sir Gerald Howarth
Prediction: Conservative hold

2. Basingstoke

2010 Result:
Conservative: 25590 (50.5%)
Labour: 10327 (20.4%)
Lib Dem: 12414 (24.5%)
UKIP: 2076 (4.1%)
Others: 247 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 13176 (26%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Maria Miller 25,769 48.6 -2.0
Labour Paul Harvey 14,706 27.7 +7.3
UKIP Alan Stone 8,290 15.6 +11.5
Liberal Democrat Janice Spalding 3,919 7.4 -17.1
Independent Omar Selim 392 0.7 N/A
Majority 11,063 20.8 -5.2
Turnout 53,076 66.6 -0.5

Leave Vote: 53.6%

Sitting MP: Maria Miller (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

3. East Hampshire

2010 Result:
Conservative: 29137 (56.8%)
Labour: 4043 (7.9%)
Lib Dem: 15640 (30.5%)
UKIP: 1477 (2.9%)
English Dem: 710 (1.4%)
Others: 310 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 13497 (26.3%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Damian Hinds 31,334 60.7 +3.9
UKIP Peter Baillie 6,187 12.0 +9.1
Liberal Democrat Richard Robinson 5,732 11.1 −19.4
Labour Alex Wilks 5,220 10.1 +2.2
Green Peter Bisset 3,176 6.1 +6.1
Majority 25,147 48.7 +22.4
Turnout 51,649 71.1 +0.1

Leave Vote: 49.3%

Sitting MP: Damian Hinds (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

4. Eastleigh

2010 Result:
Conservative: 21102 (39.3%)
Labour: 5153 (9.6%)
Lib Dem: 24966 (46.5%)
UKIP: 1933 (3.6%)
English Dem: 249 (0.5%)
Independent: 154 (0.3%)
Others: 93 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 3864 (7.2%)

2013 BY ELECTION Result:
Conservative: 10,559 (25.4%)
Labour: 3088 (9.8%)
Lib Dem: 13,342 (32.1%)
UKIP: 11,571 (27.8%)
Others: 2,194 (4.8%)
MAJORITY: 1,771 (4.3%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Mims Davies8 23,464 42.3 +3.0
Liberal Democrat Mike Thornton 14,317 25.8 -20.7
UKIP Patricia Culligan9 8,783 15.8 +12.2
Labour Mark Latham10 7,181 12.9 +3.3
Green Ron Meldrum11 1,513 2.7 N/A
Beer, Baccy and Scratchings Ray Hall 133 0.2 N/A
TUSC Declan Clune 114 0.2 N/A
Majority 9,147 16.5 +9.3
Turnout 55,505 69.9 +0.6

Leave Vote: 54.3%

Sitting MP: Mims Davies (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Former LibDem MP and council leader Mike Thornton is standing but it’s difficult in the current climate how he can overcome a 9k majority.

5. Fareham

2010 Result:
Conservative: 30037 (55.3%)
Labour: 7719 (14.2%)
Lib Dem: 12945 (23.8%)
Green: 791 (1.5%)
UKIP: 2235 (4.1%)
English Dem: 618 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 17092 (31.5%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Suella Fernandes4 30,689 56.1 +0.8
UKIP Malcolm Jones5 8,427 15.4 +11.3
Labour Stuart Rose6 7,800 14.3 +0.1
Liberal Democrat Matthew Winnington7 4,814 8.8 −15.0
Green Miles Grindey 2,129 3.9 +2.4
Independent Nick Gregory 705 1.3 N/A
Independent Harvey Hines 136 0.2 N/A
Majority 22,262 40.7
Turnout 54,700 70.8

Leave Vote: 55.5%

Sitting MP: Suella Fernandes (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

6. Gosport

2010 Result:
Conservative: 24300 (51.8%)
Labour: 7944 (16.9%)
Lib Dem: 9887 (21.1%)
BNP: 1004 (2.1%)
Green: 573 (1.2%)
UKIP: 1496 (3.2%)
English Dem: 622 (1.3%)
Independent: 493 (1.1%)
Others: 620 (1.3%)
MAJORITY: 14413 (30.7%)

2015 Majority
Conservative Caroline Dinenage 26,364 55.3 +3.5
UKIP Christopher Wood 9,266 19.4 +16.3
Labour Alan Durrant 6,926 14.5 −2.4
Liberal Democrat Rob Hylands9 3,298 6.9 -14.1
Green Monica Cassidy 1,707 3.6 +2.4
Independent Jeffrey Roberts 104 0.2 N/A
Majority 17,098 35.9 +5.2
Turnout 47,662 65.1 +0.5

Leave Vote: 61.8%

Sitting MP: Caroline Dinenage (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

7. Havant

2010 Result:
Conservative: 22433 (51.1%)
Labour: 7777 (17.7%)
Lib Dem: 10273 (23.4%)
UKIP: 2611 (5.9%)
English Dem: 809 (1.8%)
MAJORITY: 12160 (27.7%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Alan Mak 23,159 51.7 +0.6
UKIP John Perry 9,239 20.6 +14.7
Labour Graham Giles 7,149 15.9 −1.8
Liberal Democrat Steve Sollitt4 2,929 6.5 −16.9
Green Tim Dawes 2,352 5.2 N/A
Majority 13,920 31.1
Turnout 44,828 63.5

Leave Vote: 62.6%

Sitting MP: Alan Mak (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

8. Meon Valley

2010 Result:
Conservative: 28818 (56.2%)
Labour: 3266 (6.4%)
Lib Dem: 16693 (32.6%)
UKIP: 1490 (2.9%)
English Dem: 582 (1.1%)
Independent: 134 (0.3%)
Others: 255 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 12125 (23.7%)

2015 Result:
Conservative George Hollingbery6 31,578 61.1 +4.9
UKIP David Alexander7 7,665 14.8 +11.9
Labour Gemma McKenna 5,656 10.9 +4.5
Liberal Democrat Chris Carrigan 4,987 9.6 −23.0
Green Diana Wellings8 (aka: Diana Korchien9) 1,831 3.5 3.5
Majority 23,913 46.2
Turnout 51,717 71.1 +0.9

Leave Vote: 51.9%

Sitting MP: George Hollingbery (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

9. New Forest East

2010 Result:
Conservative: 26443 (52.8%)
Labour: 4915 (9.8%)
Lib Dem: 15136 (30.3%)
Green: 1024 (2%)
UKIP: 2518 (5%)
MAJORITY: 11307 (22.6%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Julian Lewis 27,819 56.3 +3.4
UKIP Roy Swales5 8,657 17.5 +12.5
Labour Andrew Pope6 6,018 12.2 +2.3
Liberal Democrat Bruce Tennent 4,626 9.4 −20.9
Green Sally May7 2,327 4.7 +2.7
Majority 19,162 38.8
Turnout 49,447 68.0 −0.7

Leave Vote: 60.2%

Sitting MP: Julian Lewis (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

10. New Forest West

2010 Result:
Conservative: 27980 (58.8%)
Labour: 4666 (9.8%)
Lib Dem: 11084 (23.3%)
Green: 1059 (2.2%)
UKIP: 2783 (5.9%)
MAJORITY: 16896 (35.5%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Desmond Swayne 28,420 59.9 +1.1
UKIP Paul Bailey 7,816 16.5 +10.6
Labour Lena Samuels 5,133 10.8 +1.0
Liberal Democrat Imogen Shepherd-DuBey 3,293 6.9 −16.4
Green Janet Richards 2,748 5.8 +3.6
Majority 20,604 43.5
Turnout 69.2

Leave Vote: 55.3%

Sitting MP: Desmond Swayne (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

11. North East Hampshire

2010 Result:
Conservative: 32075 (60.6%)
Labour: 5173 (9.8%)
Lib Dem: 13478 (25.5%)
UKIP: 2213 (4.2%)
MAJORITY: 18597 (35.1%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Ranil Jayawardena 35,573 65.9 +5.3
Liberal Democrat Graham Cockarill 5,657 10.5 −15.0
Labour Amran Justin Matheo Hussain 5,290 9.8 0.0
UKIP Robert John Charles Blay1 4,732 8.8 +4.6
Green Andrew Graham Johnston 2,364 4.4 +4.4
Monster Raving Loony Mad Max Bobetsky 384 0.7 +0.7
Majority 29,916 55.4
Turnout 54,000 72.9 −0.4

Leave Vote: 46.2%
Sitting MP: Ranil Jayawadrena (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

12. North West Hampshire

2010 Result:
Conservative: 31072 (58.3%)
Labour: 6980 (13.1%)
Lib Dem: 12489 (23.4%)
UKIP: 2751 (5.2%)
MAJORITY: 18583 (34.9%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Kit Malthouse9 32,052 58.1 −0.2
UKIP Susan Perkins10 8,109 14.7 +9.5
Labour Andrew Adams 11 7,342 13.3 +0.2
Liberal Democrat Alexander Payton 12 5,151 9.3 −14.1
Green Dan Hill13 2,541 4.6 +4.6
Majority 23,943 43.4
Turnout 55,195 69.7 +0.1

Leave Vote: 54.8%

Sitting MP: Kit Malthouse (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

13. Portsmouth North

2010 Result:
Conservative: 19533 (44.3%)
Labour: 12244 (27.8%)
Lib Dem: 8874 (20.1%)
Green: 461 (1%)
UKIP: 1812 (4.1%)
English Dem: 1040 (2.4%)
TUSC: 154 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 7289 (16.5%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Penny Mordaunt 21,343 47.0 +2.7
Labour John Ferrett6 10,806 23.8 -3.9
UKIP Mike Fitzgerald7 8,660 19.1 +15.0
Liberal Democrat Darren Sanders 2,828 6.2 -13.9
Green Gavin Ellis 8 1,450 3.2 +2.1
TUSC Jon Woods 231 0.5 +0.2
Majority 10,537 23.2 +6.7
Turnout 45,318 62.1 -0.6

Leave Vote: 65.2%

Sitting MP: Penny Mordaunt (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

14. Portsmouth South

2010 Result:
Conservative: 13721 (33.3%)
Labour: 5640 (13.7%)
Lib Dem: 18921 (45.9%)
BNP: 873 (2.1%)
Green: 716 (1.7%)
UKIP: 876 (2.1%)
English Dem: 400 (1%)
Others: 117 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 5200 (12.6%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Flick Drummond 14,585 34.8 +1.6
Liberal Democrat Gerald Vernon-Jackson 9,344 22.3 −23.6
Labour Sue Castillon 8,184 19.5 +5.9
UKIP Steve Harris 5,595 13.4 +11.2
Green Ian McCulloch 3,145 7.5 +5.8
Independent Mike Hancock 716 1.7 N/A
TUSC Sean Hoyle 235 0.6 N/A
JAC Don Jerrard 99 0.2 0.0
Majority 5,241 12.5
Turnout 41,903 58.5

Leave Vote: 49.7%

Sitting MP: Flick Drummond (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

15. Romsey & Southampton North

2010 Result:
Conservative: 24345 (49.7%)
Labour: 3116 (6.4%)
Lib Dem: 20189 (41.3%)
UKIP: 1289 (2.6%)
MAJORITY: 4156 (8.5%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Caroline Nokes 26,285 54.4 +4.6
Liberal Democrat Ben Nicholls 8,573 17.7 -23.5
Labour Darren Paffey 5,749 11.9 +5.5
UKIP Sandra James 5,511 11.4 +8.8
Green Ian Callaghan 2,218 4.6 n/a
Majority 17,712 36.6
Turnout 72.76

Leave Vote: 46.1%

Sitting MP: Caroline Nokes (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

16. Southampton Itchen

2010 Result:
Conservative: 16134 (36.3%)
Labour: 16326 (36.8%)
Lib Dem: 9256 (20.8%)
Green: 600 (1.4%)
UKIP: 1928 (4.3%)
TUSC: 168 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 192 (0.4%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Royston Smith 18,656 41.7 +5.4
Labour Rowenna Davis 16,340 36.5 -0.2
UKIP Kim Rose 6,010 13.4 +9.1
Green John Spottiswoode 1,876 4.2 +2.8
Liberal Democrat Eleanor Bell 1,595 3.6 -17.3
TUSC Sue Atkins 233 0.5 +0.1
Majority 2,316 5.2 +4.8
Turnout 44,710 61.8 +2.2

Leave Vote: 60.3%

Sitting MP: Royston Smith (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Not a dead cert hold, but if the Tories won it last time, it’s difficult to see how they would lose it this time.

17. Southampton Test

2010 Result:
Conservative: 14588 (33%)
Labour: 17001 (38.5%)
Lib Dem: 9865 (22.3%)
Green: 881 (2%)
UKIP: 1726 (3.9%)
Independent: 126 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 2413 (5.5%)

2015 Result:
Labour Alan Whitehead 18,017 41.3 +2.8
Conservative Jeremy Moulton 14,207 32.5 -0.5
UKIP Pearline Hingston 5,566 12.8 +8.8
Green Angela Mawle 2,568 5.9 +3.9
Liberal Democrat Adrian Ford 2,121 4.9 -17.5
Independent Chris Davis 770 1.8 N/A
TUSC Nick Chaffey 403 0.9 +0.9
Majority 3,810 8.7 +3.2
Turnout 43,652 62.1 +0.7

Leave Vote: 49.4%

Sitting MP: Alan Whitehead (Lab)
Prediction: Conservative gain

This seat was held by the Tories up until 1997, but has been relatively solidly Labour ever since. However, as in Itchen, its vote has been on the decline and Labour will be a little worried about losing it if the Tories get a big majority. One to watch on election night.

18. Winchester

2010 Result:
Conservative: 27155 (48.5%)
Labour: 3051 (5.5%)
Lib Dem: 24107 (43.1%)
UKIP: 1139 (2%)
English Dem: 503 (0.9%)
MAJORITY: 3048 (5.4%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Steve Brine 30,425 55.0 +6.5
Liberal Democrat Jackie Porter 13,511 24.4 -18.7
Labour Mark Chaloner 4,613 8.3 +2.9
UKIP Martin Lyon 4,122 7.5 +5.4
Green Michael Wilks 2,645 4.8 N/A
Majority 16,914 30.6 +25.2
Turnout 53,316 74.6 -1.2

Leave Vote: 39.6%

Sitting MP: Steve Brine (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

19. Isle of Wight

2010 Result:
Conservative: 32810 (46.7%)
Labour: 8169 (11.6%)
Lib Dem: 22283 (31.7%)
BNP: 1457 (2.1%)
Green: 931 (1.3%)
UKIP: 2435 (3.5%)
English Dem: 1233 (1.8%)
Independent: 175 (0.2%)
Others: 771 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 10527 (15%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Andrew Turner16 28,591 40.7 -6.0
UKIP Iain McKie17 14,888 21.2 +17.7
Green Vix Lowthion18 9,404 13.4 +12.1
Labour Stewart Blackmore16 8,984 12.8 +1.2
Liberal Democrat David Goodall19 5,235 7.5 -24.2
Independent Ian Stephens20 3,198 4.5 N/A
Majority 13,703 19.5 +4.5
Turnout 70,300 65.0 +1.1

Sitting MP: Andrew Turner (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Andrew Turner has stood down at the last minute but this is a safe Tory hold.

To see previous predictions. click HERE

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General Election Predictions

General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 31. Dorset

30 Apr 2017 at 15:30

DORSET

Seats: 8
Current Political Makeup: Con 8
Predicted Political Makeup after June 8: Con 8

1. Bournemouth East

2010 Result:
Conservative: 21320 (48.4%)
Labour: 5836 (13.3%)
Lib Dem: 13592 (30.9%)
UKIP: 3027 (6.9%)
Independent: 249 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 7728 (17.6%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Tobias Ellwood 6 22,060 49.0 +0.8
Labour Peter Stokes 7,448 16.6 +3.4
UKIP David Hughes 7 7,401 16.5 +9.6
Liberal Democrat Jon Nicholas 3,752 8.4 −22.5
Green Alasdair Keddie8 3,263 7.3 N/A
Independent David Ross 903 2.0 N/A
Majority 14,612 32.6 +15.1
Turnout 45,014 62.6 +0.7

Leave Vote: 53.7%

Sitting MP: Tobias Ellwood (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

2. Bournemouth West

2010 Result:
Conservative: 18808 (45.1%)
Labour: 6171 (14.8%)
Lib Dem: 13225 (31.7%)
UKIP: 2999 (7.2%)
Independent: 456 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 5583 (13.4%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Conor Burns 20,155 48.2 +3.1
UKIP Martin Houlden 7,745 18.5 +11.3
Labour David Stokes 7,386 17.7 +2.9
Liberal Democrat Mike Plummer 3,281 7.9 -23.9
Green Elizabeth McManus 3,107 7.4 +7.4
Patria Dick Franklin 99 0.2 +0.2
Majority 12,410 29.7 +16.3
Turnout 41,767 58.0 -0.1

Leave Vote: 57.7%

Sitting MP: Conor Burns (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

3. Christchurch

2010 Result:
Conservative: 27888 (56.4%)
Labour: 4849 (9.8%)
Lib Dem: 12478 (25.3%)
UKIP: 4201 (8.5%)
MAJORITY: 15410 (31.2%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Christopher Chope 28,887 58.1 +1.7
UKIP Robin Grey 10,663 21.5 +13.0
Labour Andrew Satherley 4,745 9.5 -0.3
Liberal Democrat Andy Canning13 3,263 6.6 -18.7
Green Shona Dunn 14 2,149 4.3 +4.3
Majority 18,224 36.7 +5.5
Turnout 49,707 71.7 -0.1

Leave Vote: 60.0%

Sitting MP: Christopher Chope (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

4. Mid Dorset & North Poole

2010 Result:
Conservative: 20831 (44.5%)
Labour: 2748 (5.9%)
Lib Dem: 21100 (45.1%)
UKIP: 2109 (4.5%)
MAJORITY: 269 (0.6%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Michael Tomlinson 23,639 50.8 +6.3
Liberal Democrat Vikki Slade 13,109 28.2 −16.9
UKIP Richard Turner 5,663 12.2 +7.7
Labour Patrick Canavan7 2,767 6.0 +0.1
Green Mark Chivers8 1,321 2.8 N/A
Majority 10,530 22.6 +22
Turnout 46,499 72.5 +8.1

Leave Vote: 57.08%

Sitting MP: Michael Tomlinson (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

5. North Dorset

2010 Result:
Conservative: 27640 (51.1%)
Labour: 2910 (5.4%)
Lib Dem: 20015 (37%)
Green: 546 (1%)
UKIP: 2812 (5.2%)
Others: 218 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 7625 (14.1%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Simon Hoare4 30,227 56.6 +5.6
UKIP Steve Unwin5 9,109 17.1 +11.9
Liberal Democrat Hugo Miéville6 6,226 11.7 -25.3
Labour Kim Fendley7 4,785 9.0 +3.6
Green Richard Barrington 8 3,038 5.7 +4.7
Majority 21,118 39.6 +25.5
Turnout 53,385 71.6 -1.9

Leave Vote: 56.6%

Sitting MP: Simon Hoare (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

6. Poole

2010 Result:
Conservative: 22532 (47.5%)
Labour: 6041 (12.7%)
Lib Dem: 14991 (31.6%)
BNP: 1188 (2.5%)
UKIP: 2507 (5.3%)
Independent: 177 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 7541 (15.9%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Robert Syms 23,745 50.1 +2.6
UKIP David Young16 7,956 16.8 +11.5
Labour Helen Rosser 6,102 12.9 +0.1
Liberal Democrat Philip Eades 5,572 11.8 -19.8
Green Adrian Oliver17 2,198 4.6 +4.6
The Party for Poole People Ltd.18 Mark Howell19 1,766 3.7 +3.7
Independent Ian Northover 54 0.1 +0.1
Majority 15,789 33.3
Turnout 47,393 65.3 -8.1

Leave Vote: 57.4%

Sitting MP: Robert Syms (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

7. South Dorset

2010 Result:
Conservative: 22667 (45.1%)
Labour: 15224 (30.3%)
Lib Dem: 9557 (19%)
Green: 595 (1.2%)
UKIP: 2034 (4%)
Others: 233 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 7443 (14.8%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Richard Drax 23,756 48.7 +3.6
Labour Simon Bowkett 11,762 24.2 -6.1
UKIP Malcolm Shakesby10 7,304 15.0 +11.0
Liberal Democrat Howard Legg11 2,901 6.0 -13.0
Green Jane Burnet12 2,275 4.7 +3.5
Independent Mervyn Stewkesbury 435 0.9
Movement for Active Democracy Andy Kirkwood 164 0.3 -0.2
Majority 11,994 24.7
Turnout 48,737 68.1

Leave Vote: 59.4%

Sitting MP: Richard Drax (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

8. West Dorset

2010 Result:
Conservative: 27287 (47.6%)
Labour: 3815 (6.7%)
Lib Dem: 23364 (40.7%)
Green: 675 (1.2%)
UKIP: 2196 (3.8%)
MAJORITY: 3923 (6.8%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Oliver Letwin 28,329 50.2 +2.6
Liberal Democrat Ros Kayes 12,199 21.6 −19.1
UKIP David Glossop 7,055 12.5 +8.7
Labour Rachel Rogers 5,633 10.0 +3.3
Green Peter Barton 3,242 5.7 +4.6
Majority 16,130 28.6
Turnout 56,643 72.6 −2.0

Leave Vote: 51%

Sitting MP: Oliver Letwin (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE

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General Election Predictions

General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 30. West Sussex

30 Apr 2017 at 14:34

WEST SUSSEX

Seats: 8
Current Political Makeup: Con 8
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 8

1. Arundel & South Downs

2010 Result:
Conservative: 32333 (57.8%)
Labour: 4835 (8.6%)
Lib Dem: 15642 (27.9%)
UKIP: 3172 (5.7%)
MAJORITY: 16691 (29.8%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Nick Herbert 34,331 60.8 +3.0
UKIP Peter Grace 8,154 14.4 +8.8
Labour Christopher Wellbelove 6,324 11.2 +2.6
Liberal Democrat Shweta Kapadia 4,062 7.2 −20.7
Green Isabel Thurston 3,606 6.4 +6.4
Majority 26,177 46.3 +16.4
Turnout 56,477 73.1 +0.9

Leave Vote: 49.7%

Sitting MP: Nick Herbert (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

2. Bognor Regis & Littlehampton

2010 Result:
Conservative: 24087 (51.4%)
Labour: 6580 (14%)
Lib Dem: 11024 (23.5%)
BNP: 1890 (4%)
UKIP: 3036 (6.5%)
Independent: 235 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 13063 (27.9%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Nick Gibb 24,185 51.3 −0.1
UKIP Graham Jones 10,241 21.7 +15.3
Labour Alan Butcher 6,508 13.8 −0.2
Liberal Democrat Francis Oppler 4,240 9.0 −14.5
Green Simon McDougall 1,942 4.1 +4.1
Majority 13,944 29.6 +1.7
Turnout 47,116 64.5 -1.7

Leave Vote: 64.8%

Sitting MP: Nick Gibb (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

3. Chichester

2010 Result:
Conservative: 31427 (55.3%)
Labour: 5937 (10.5%)
Lib Dem: 15550 (27.4%)
UKIP: 3873 (6.8%)
MAJORITY: 15877 (28%)

2015 result:
Conservative Andrew Tyrie 32,953 57.7 +2.3
UKIP Andrew Moncreiff11 8,540 14.9 +8.1
Labour Mark Farwell12 6,933 12.1 +1.7
Liberal Democrat Andrew Smith13 4,865 8.5 −18.9
Green Jasper Richmond14 3,742 6.5 N/A
Patria Andrew Emerson 106 0.2 N/A
Majority 24,413 42.7 +14.7
Turnout 57,139 68.4 -1.0

Leave Vote: 50.73%

Sitting MP: Andrew Tyrie (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

4. Crawley

2010 Result:
Conservative: 21264 (44.8%)
Labour: 15336 (32.3%)
Lib Dem: 6844 (14.4%)
BNP: 1672 (3.5%)
Green: 598 (1.3%)
UKIP: 1382 (2.9%)
Independent: 143 (0.3%)
Others: 265 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 5928 (12.5%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Henry Smith 6 22,829 47.0 +2.3
Labour Chris Oxlade 6 16,303 33.6 +1.3
UKIP Christopher Brown7 6,979 14.4 +11.5
Liberal Democrat Sarah Osborne8 1,339 2.8 -11.6
Green Guy Hudson9 1,100 2.3 +1.0
Majority 6,526 13.4 +2.3
Turnout 48,550 65.7 +0.4

Leave Vote: 58.4%

Sitting MP: Henry Smith (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Widely tipped to lose last time, instead Henry Smith increased his majority. He’s likely to do so again.

5. East Worthing & Shoreham

Conservative: 23458 (48.5%)
Labour: 8087 (16.7%)
Lib Dem: 12353 (25.5%)
Green: 1126 (2.3%)
UKIP: 2984 (6.2%)
English Dem: 389 (0.8%)
MAJORITY: 11105 (22.9%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Tim Loughton 24,686 49.5 +1.0
Labour Tim Macpherson 9,737 19.5 +2.8
UKIP Mike J. Glennon 8,267 16.6 +10.4
Liberal Democrat Bob Smytherman 3,360 6.7 −18.8
Green James Doyle 2,605 5.2 +2.9
National Health Action Carl Walker 1,243 2.5 N/A
Majority 14,949 30.0 +7.1
Turnout 49,898 67.2 +1.8

Leave Vote: 53.7%

Sitting MP: Tim Loughton (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

6. Horsham

2010 Result:
Conservative: 29447 (52.7%)
Labour: 4189 (7.5%)
Lib Dem: 17987 (32.2%)
Green: 570 (1%)
UKIP: 2839 (5.1%)
Christian: 469 (0.8%)
Independent: 87 (0.2%)
Others: 253 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 11460 (20.5%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Jeremy Quin11 32,627 57.3 +4.6
UKIP Roger Arthur1213 7,969 14.0 +8.9
Liberal Democrat Morwen Millson 6,647 11.7 −20.5
Labour Martyn Davis14 6,499 11.4 +3.9
Green Darrin Green15 2,198 3.9 +2.8
Something New James Smith16 375 0.7 +0.7
Peace Jim Duggan17 307 0.5 +0.1
Independent Jim Rae18 303 0.5 +0.5
Majority 24,658 43.3
Turnout 56,925 72.8

Leave Vote: 49.5%

Sitting MP: Jeremy Quin (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

7. Mid Sussex

2010 Result:
Conservative: 29447 (52.7%)
Labour: 4189 (7.5%)
Lib Dem: 17987 (32.2%)
Green: 570 (1%)
UKIP: 2839 (5.1%)
Christian: 469 (0.8%)
Independent: 87 (0.2%)
Others: 253 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 11460 (20.5%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Nicholas Soames 32,268 56.1 +5.4
Labour Greg Mountain 7,982 13.9 +7.3
UKIP Toby Brothers 6,898 12.0 +9.5
Liberal Democrat Daisy Cooper7 6,604 11.5 −26.0
Green Miranda Diboll8 2,453 4.3 +3.1
Independent Beki Adam9 958 1.7 N/A
Monster Raving Loony Baron Von Thunderclap 329 0.6 +0.1
Majority 24,286 42.2
Turnout 57,492 72.3

Leave Vote: 46.4%

Sitting MP: Sir Nicholas Soames (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

8. Worthing West

2010 Result:
Conservative: 25416 (51.7%)
Labour: 5800 (11.8%)
Lib Dem: 13687 (27.9%)
Green: 996 (2%)
UKIP: 2924 (6%)
Christian: 300 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 11729 (23.9%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Peter Bottomley 26,124 51.5 −0.3
UKIP Timothy Cross 9,269 18.3 +12.3
Labour Jim Deen 7,955 15.7 +3.9
Liberal Democrat Hazel Thorpe 4,477 8.8 −19.0
Green David Aherne 2,938 5.8 +3.8
Majority 16,855 33.2
Turnout 50,763 67.1 +2.4

Leave Vote: 56.0%

Sitting MP: Sir Peter Bottomley (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

To see the complete list of predictions click HERE

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General Election Predictions

General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 29. East Sussex

30 Apr 2017 at 10:52

EAST SUSSEX

Seats: 8
Current Political Makeup: Con 6, Lab 1, Green 1
Predicted Political Makeup after June 8: Con 5, Lab 1, LibDem 1, Green 1
Revised: Con 5, Lab 1, LibDem 1, Green 1

1. Bexhill & Battle

2010 Result:
Conservative: 28147 (51.6%)
Labour: 6524 (12%)
Lib Dem: 15267 (28%)
BNP: 1950 (3.6%)
Others: 2699 (4.9%)
MAJORITY: 12880 (23.6%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Huw Merriman 7 30,245 54.8 +3.2
UKIP Geoffrey Bastin 8 10,170 18.4 N/A
Labour Michelle Thew 9 7,797 14.1 +2.1
Liberal Democrat Rachel Sadler 10 4,199 7.6 −20.4
Green Jonathan Kent 2,807 5.1 N/A
Majority 20,075 36.4 +12.8
Turnout 55,218 70.1 +1.1

Leave Vote: 57.2%

Sitting MP: Huw Merriman (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

2. Brighton Kemptown

2010 Result:
Conservative: 16217 (38%)
Labour: 14889 (34.9%)
Lib Dem: 7691 (18%)
Green: 2330 (5.5%)
UKIP: 1384 (3.2%)
TUSC: 194 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 1328 (3.1%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Simon Kirby 8 18,428 40.7 +2.7
Labour Nancy Platts8 17,738 39.2 +4.3
UKIP Ian Buchanan9 4,446 9.8 +6.6
Green Davy Jones 8 3,187 7.0 +1.6
Liberal Democrat Paul Chandler10 1,365 3.0 −15.0
Socialist (GB) Jacqueline Shodeke 11 73 0.2 N/A
Independent Matthew Taylor 12 69 0.2 N/A
Majority 690 1.5 −1.6
Turnout 45,306 66.8 +2.1

Leave Vote: 43.6%

Sitting MP: Simon Kirby (Con)
Prediction: Labour gain

This is one of the seats that I can see Labour gaining, mainly due to the demographics. The UKIP vote is not insignificant here but it will be difficult for Kirby to gain support from UKIP voters bearing in mind he supported the Remain campaign. The Greens have this week announced they will not stand here which could make this a surefire Labour gain, unless their vote goes almost entirely to the LibDems. If the LibDems recover their vote share here from 2010, again it could play into Simon Kirby’s hands.

3. Brighton Pavilion

2010 Result:
Conservative: 12275 (23.7%)
Labour: 14986 (28.9%)
Lib Dem: 7159 (13.8%)
Green: 16238 (31.3%)
UKIP: 948 (1.8%)
Others: 228 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 1252 (2.4%)

2015 Result:
Green Caroline Lucas 22,871 41.8 +10.5
Labour Purna Sen 14,904 27.3 −1.7
Conservative Clarence Mitchell 12,448 22.8 −0.9
UKIP Nigel Carter 2,724 5.0 +3.2
Liberal Democrat Chris Bowers 1,525 2.8 −11.0
Independent Nick Yeomans 116 0.2 N/A
Socialist (GB) Howard Pilott 88 0.2 N/A
Majority 7,967 14.6 +12.2
Turnout 54,676 71.4 +1.4

Leave Vote: 25.9%

Sitting MP: Caroline Lucas (Green)
Prediction: Green hold

I can see no prospect of anything other than a Green hold here.

4. Eastbourne

2010 Result:
Conservative: 21223 (40.7%)
Labour: 2497 (4.8%)
Lib Dem: 24658 (47.3%)
BNP: 939 (1.8%)
UKIP: 1305 (2.5%)
Independent: 1327 (2.5%)
Others: 175 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 3435 (6.6%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Caroline Ansell 20,934 39.6 -1.1
Liberal Democrat Stephen Lloyd 20,201 38.2 -9.1
UKIP Nigel Jones 6,139 11.6 +9.1
Labour Jake Lambert11 4,143 7.8 +3.0
Green Andrew Durling12 1,351 2.6 +2.6
Independent Paul Howard 139 0.3 +0.3
Majority 733 1.4
Turnout 52,907 67.6

Leave Vote: 57.5%

Sitting MP: Caroline Ansell (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold
Revised LibDem gain

Stephen Lloyd is restanding again despite saying he wouldn’t. But he’s a strong opponent for the Conservatives and should not be underestimated. However, the Leave vote in this constituency was substantial and it is likely Caroline Ansell will eat into the UKIP vote. This is the kind of seat where Theresa May herself may determine the result.

5. Hastings & Rye

2010 Result:
Conservative: 20468 (41.1%)
Labour: 18475 (37.1%)
Lib Dem: 7825 (15.7%)
BNP: 1310 (2.6%)
UKIP: 1397 (2.8%)
English Dem: 339 (0.7%)
MAJORITY: 1993 (4%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Amber Rudd6 22,686 44.5 +3.4
Labour Sarah Owen7 17,890 35.1 −2.0
UKIP Andrew Michael[disambiguation needed] 6,786 13.3 +10.5
Green Jake Bowers 1,951 3.8 +3.8
Liberal Democrat Nick Perry8 1,614 3.2 −12.5
Majority 4,796 9.4 +5.4
Turnout 50,927 68.0 +4.1

Leave Vote: 55.9%

Sitting MP: Amber Rudd (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Amber Rudd was heavily tipped to lose last time but she survived with a reasonable majority. She might have vocally supported Remain but her prominence as Home Secretary may do her some favours. I expect an increased majority.

6. Hove

2010 Result:
Conservative: 18294 (36.7%)
Labour: 16426 (33%)
Lib Dem: 11240 (22.6%)
Green: 2568 (5.2%)
UKIP: 1206 (2.4%)
Independent: 85 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 1868 (3.7%)

2015 Result:
Labour Peter Kyle11 22,082 42.3 +9.3
Conservative Graham Cox12 20,846 39.9 +3.2
Green Christopher Hawtree13 3,569 6.8 +1.7
UKIP Kevin Smith1415 3,265 6.3 +3.8
Liberal Democrat Peter Lambell16 1,861 3.6 −19.0
Independent Jenny Barnard-Langston 322 0.6 N/A
TUSC Dave Hill 144 0.3 N/A
Monster Raving Loony Dame Jon Dixon17 125 0.2 N/A
Majority 1,236 2.4
Turnout 52,214 71.0

Sitting MP: Peter Kyle (Lab)
Prediction: Conservative gain

This is a really interesting seat. Even though it has a narrow majority, it’s possible it could be held by Labour, even if there is a wider Tory landslide, especially if the Greens stand aside and concentrate their efforts in the Pavilion seat. However, the Momentum controlled Labour Party might not be too keen to camaign for the Blairite Peter Kyle. There’s no big UKIP vote for the Conservative to rely on, either. But logic points to a Tory gain.

7. Lewes

2010 Result:
Conservative: 18401 (36.7%)
Labour: 2508 (5%)
Lib Dem: 26048 (52%)
BNP: 594 (1.2%)
Green: 729 (1.5%)
UKIP: 1728 (3.4%)
Independent: 80 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 7647 (15.3%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Maria Caulfield 19,206 38.0 +1.3
Liberal Democrat Norman Baker 18,123 35.9 -16.1
UKIP Ray Finch 5,427 10.7 +7.3
Labour Lloyd Russell-Moyle 5,000 9.9 +4.9
Green Alfie Stirling 2,784 5.5 +4.1
Majority 1,083 2.1
Turnout 50,540 72.7 -0.2

Leave Vote: 47.1%

Sitting MP: Maria Caulfield (Con)
Prediction: LibDem gain
Revised: Con hold

If Norman Baker were restanding here I’d say the odds of a LibDem gain here were slightly higher than they appear now. Will the Greens give the LibDems a free run? If they do, and the UKIP vote stays strong, I’d say the LibDems will edge it. A lot of caveats there, but this is a tricky one to call.

8. Wealden

2010 Result:
Conservative: 31090 (56.6%)
Labour: 5266 (9.6%)
Lib Dem: 13911 (25.3%)
Green: 1383 (2.5%)
UKIP: 3319 (6%)
MAJORITY: 17179 (31.3%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Nusrat Ghani 32,508 57.0 +0.5
UKIP Peter Griffiths5 9,541 16.7 +10.7
Labour Solomon Curtis6 6,165 10.8 +1.2
Liberal Democrat Giles Goodall 5,180 9.1 −16.5
Green Mark Smith 7 3,623 6.4 +3.8
Majority 22,967 40.3
Turnout 57,017 71.0

Leave Vote: 52.8%

Sitting MP: Nus Ghani (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

To see the complete list of predictions click HERE

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General Election Predictions

General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 28. Cambridgeshire

30 Apr 2017 at 10:15

CAMBRIDGESHIRE

Seats: 7
Current Political Makeup: Con 6, Lab 1
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 6, LibDem 1

1. Cambridge

2010 Result:
Conservative: 12829 (25.6%)
Labour: 12174 (24.3%)
Lib Dem: 19621 (39.1%)
Green: 3804 (7.6%)
UKIP: 1195 (2.4%)
Independent: 145 (0.3%)
Others: 362 (0.7%)
MAJORITY: 6792 (13.5%)

2015 Result:
Labour Daniel Zeichner 18,646 36.0 +11.7
Liberal Democrat Julian Huppert 18,047 34.9 −4.3
Conservative Chamali Fernando 8,117 15.7 −9.9
Green Rupert Read 4,109 7.9 +0.3
UKIP Patrick O’Flynn 2,668 5.2 +2.8
Rebooting Democracy Keith Garrett 187 0.4 N/A
Majority 599 1.2
Turnout 51,774 62.1 −2.9

Leave Vote: 26.3%

Sitting MP: Daniel Zeichner (Lab)
Prediction: LibDem gain

I thought Julian Huppert would hold on last time but I was wrong. He’s standing again and in the biggest Remain constituency in the country, if they don’t take this seat back they can’t hope to win elsewhere. I’d say this was the most nailed on LibDem gain of them all.

2. Huntingdon

2010 Result:
Conservative: 26516 (48.9%)
Labour: 5982 (11%)
Lib Dem: 15697 (28.9%)
Green: 652 (1.2%)
UKIP: 3258 (6%)
Independent: 1432 (2.6%)
Others: 729 (1.3%)
MAJORITY: 10819 (19.9%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Jonathan Djanogly 29,652 53.0 +4.2
Labour Nik Johnson9 10,248 18.3 +7.3
UKIP Paul Bullen9 9,473 16.9 +10.9
Liberal Democrat Rod Cantrill10 4,375 7.8 −21.1
Green Thomas MacLennan11 2,178 3.9 +2.7
Majority 19,404 34.7
Turnout 67.9

Sitting MP: Jonathan Djanogly
Prediction: Conservative hold

3. North East Cambridgeshire

2010 Result:
Conservative: 26862 (51.6%)
Labour: 9274 (17.8%)
Lib Dem: 10437 (20%)
BNP: 1747 (3.4%)
UKIP: 2791 (5.4%)
English Dem: 387 (0.7%)
Independent: 566 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 16425 (31.5%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Stephen Barclay 28,524 55.1 +3.5
UKIP Andrew Charalambous 11,650 22.5 +17.1
Labour Ken Rustidge 7,476 14.4 −3.4
Liberal Democrat Lucy Nethsingha 2,314 4.5 −15.6
Green Helen Scott-Daniels 1,816 3.5 N/A
Majority 16,874 32.6
Turnout 51,780 62.4

Leave Vote: 69.4%

Sitting MP: Stephen Barclay (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

4. North West Cambridgeshire

2010 Result:
Conservative: 29425 (50.5%)
Labour: 9877 (16.9%)
Lib Dem: 12748 (21.9%)
UKIP: 4826 (8.3%)
English Dem: 1407 (2.4%)
MAJORITY: 16677 (28.6%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Shailesh Vara 32,070 52.5 +2.0
UKIP Peter Reeve 5 12,275 20.1 +11.8
Labour Nick Thulbourn 5 10,927 17.9 +0.9
Liberal Democrat Nicholas Sandford6 3,479 5.7 −16.2
Green Nicola Day7 2,159 3.5 +3.5
Christian Peoples Fay Belham 190 0.3 +0.3
Majority 19,795 32.4 +3.8
Turnout 61,100 66.6 +1.0

Leave Vote: 57.0%

Sitting MP: Shailesh Vara (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

5. Peterborough

2010 Result:
Conservative: 18133 (40.4%)
Labour: 13272 (29.5%)
Lib Dem: 8816 (19.6%)
Green: 523 (1.2%)
UKIP: 3007 (6.7%)
English Dem: 770 (1.7%)
Independent: 406 (0.9%)
MAJORITY: 4861 (10.8%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Stewart Jackson 18,684 39.7 -0.7
Labour Lisa Forbes 16,759 35.6 +6.1
UKIP Mary Herdman 7,485 15.9 +9.2
Liberal Democrat Darren Fower 1,774 3.8 -15.9
Green Darren Bisby-Boyd 1,218 2.6 +1.4
Liberal Chris Ash 639 1.4 N/A
Independent John Fox 516 1.1 N/A
Majority 1,925 4.1 -6.7
Turnout 47,075 64.9 +1.0

Leave Vote:62.7%

Sitting MP: Stewart Jackson (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

A very narrow majority and Labour will have ambitions to take back this seat. UKIP are standing down which may help Stewart Jackson’s cause.

6. South Cambridgeshire

2010 Result:
Conservative: 27995 (47.4%)
Labour: 6024 (10.2%)
Lib Dem: 20157 (34.1%)
Green: 1039 (1.8%)
UKIP: 1873 (3.2%)
Independent: 1968 (3.3%)
MAJORITY: 7838 (13.3%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Heidi Allen 31,454 51.1 +3.7
Labour Dan Greef 10,860 17.6 +7.4
Liberal Democrat Sebastian Kindersley 9,368 15.2 −18.9
UKIP Marion Mason 6,010 9.8 +6.6
Green Simon Saggers 3,848 6.3 +4.5
Majority 20,594 33.5 +20.2
Turnout 61,540 73.1 −1.7

Leave Vote: 38.5%

Sitting MP: Heidi Allen (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

7. South East Cambridgeshire

2010 Result:
Conservative: 27629 (48%)
Labour: 4380 (7.6%)
Lib Dem: 21683 (37.6%)
Green: 766 (1.3%)
UKIP: 2138 (3.7%)
Independent: 517 (0.9%)
Others: 489 (0.8%)
MAJORITY: 5946 (10.3%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Lucy Frazer 8[n 3] 28,845 48.5 +0.5
Liberal Democrat Jonathan Chatfield 10 12,008 20.2 −17.5
Labour Huw Jones 11 9,013 15.1 +7.5
UKIP Deborah Rennie 12 6,593 11.1 +7.4
Green Clive Semmens 13 3,047 5.1 +3.8
Majority 16,837 28.3
Turnout 59,506 70.4 +1.1

Leave Vote: 45.3%

Sitting MP: Lucy Frazer (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

To see the complete list of predictions click HERE

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