19 Jan 2018 at 15:43
A rather thoughtful discussion….!
19 Jan 2018 at 15:43
A rather thoughtful discussion….!
19 Jan 2018 at 15:40
The collapse of a company like Carillion was always going to result in Jeremy Corbyn attacking the whole concept of ‘contracting out’ – or ‘privatisation’ as he would say. He conveniently ignores the inconvenient fact that it wasn’t Carillion’s public sector contracts which caused the company to go bust, but instead they had overreached themselves on their private sector contracts which made up 60% of their business. Corbyn also questioned why contracts had been awarded contracts even after July’s profit warning. This shows how little Corbyn understands of the private sector and how businesses work. A profit warning means just that – that profits are likely to lower than previously indicated. It does not mean that a company is in imminent danger of going bust. You can’t blame Corbyn for not understanding the private sector. He’s never had a job in it. Come to think of it, I don’t think he’s had a public sector job either, unless you count being an MP. His only job before becoming an MP was as a trade union organiser. His Shadow Cabinet fares little better. I don’t think any of them have ever actually run a business themselves. Owen Smith worked for Pfizer (insert own joke here) and Rebecca Long-Bailey was a lawyer, but apart from those two there is little private sector experience to be found.
I’ve said this before and I’ll say it again. The case for capitalism is not being made. The case for privatisation is not being made. The case for contracting out is not being made. Corbyn’s populist approach is making headway among young voters who, by definition, have no memory of what state control did to the economy in the 1970s. Having reached the ripe old age of 55 it’s becoming clear to me that all politics is cyclical. And we’re now entering a period of time where people genuinely think that the state is much better at running things than the private sector. People even seem to think the railways were better under state ownership. Politicians on the right have failed to counter this type of propaganda and until they do, the danger of a Corbyn government will grow by the day.
Of course, the trouble is that the private sector is often the worst possible advert for itself. The behaviour of some company directors is appalling and allows the narrative to develop that all directors are just in it for themselves. One rotten apple spoils the barrel. The way some industries were privatised means that lack of competition and soft regulation has allowed some companies – especially in the energy and water sectors – to treat their customers with the same contempt that the public sector has often displayed. It shouldn’t be like that. It doesn’t have to be like that.
On Wednesday a colleague told me of a crowdfunding initiative launched by two of the victims of the black cab driver John Worboys, who is about to be let out of prison on parole. They want to launch a legal challenge to stop that happening, or at the very least make sure that the Parole Board followed correct procedures. They wanted to raise £10,000. I tweeted about it and Guido Fawkes blogged. I then decided to do an hour-long phone-in on the issue. At the start of the phone-in people had donated £2,000. An hour later the total was more than £13,000. If that doesn’t demonstrate the power of radio, I don’t know what does. The total was boosted by a £5,000 donation from the Licensed Taxi Drivers Association. As I write the total is more than £15,000. If you’d like to donate, click HERE [insert link https://www.crowdjustice.com/donation/d2p5VV69vDMl6d6D5xxQnYBGvNDk/?style=new ]. The target is now £50,000. Worboys’ victims deserve justice and they need to feel safe. It’s a scandal that this money even has to be raised. The system has failed these women and there are a lot of questions that need to be answered about the way the Parole system needs to be reformed and made more transparent.
Nicola Sturgeon has been uncharacteristically quiet of late, hasn’t she? Perhaps the reason is the plummeting support for Scottish independence. Only 37% of Scots now want Scotland to be a fully independent country, according to a YouGov poll this week. Another part of Project Fear which hasn’t come true – the warning made in the Brexit referendum that Brexit would make the break-up of the United Kingdom more likely.
If you’ve got Netflix, check out a Norwegian political thriller series called OCCUPIED. It centres around a green Norwegian Prime Minister who stops all oil and gas production. Without giving too much away, it then centres around how the EU persuades Russia to invade and ensure oil and gas production continues. It’s absolutely gripping. No need to thank me!
13 Jan 2018 at 20:15
A lot has been written and said about the crisis in hospitals this January. Much of it repeats what was written last January. And yet it shouldn’t have been like this. The Health Secretary and the Prime Minister and various NHS managers continue to insist that planning for the annual ‘winter crisis’ was better than ever. You just wonder how bad things would be if it hadn’t been…
Simon Stevens is nothing if not a clever political operator. By demanding in public that the NHS got an extra £4 billion (knowing full well he wouldn’t get it) he covered his back. If things went tits up, he could blame ministers rather than put the blame where it really ought to lie – at his own door. This was supposed to be a man with a plan. Indeed he did have a plan – a five year plan. He put it to ministers and they accepted every word of it and agreed to fund it down to the last penny. It turned out that Simon Stevens became Oliver Twist and kept asking for ‘more’.
In 1997 Stevens became a special advier to the then Health Secretary Frank Dobson. If ever there was a health secretary in need of advice it was him. He held the same position with Alan Milburn and then in 2001 became health policy adviser to Tony Blair. He was closely associated with the development of the NHS Plan 2000. This plan promised to reverse 30 years of hospital bed cuts, and provide and extra 7,500 hospital beds over the ensuing five years. In actual fact the number of beds fell by 3,000, continuing a seemingly irreversible trend.
It was the Blair government that promoted the theory that people much preferred to be treated in their own homes, and therefore fewer hospital beds were needed. In addition, new technology and faster treatments also meant that whereas in the 1980s someone might need a five day hospital stay, nowadays that might be reduced to one or two, or even none if the treatment could be done in a day. Jacqui Smith (who was a Health Minister at the time) and I spoke about this on this week’s FOR THE MANY PODCAST. She admitted the policy had been a mistake. But it’s a policy which has continued since that time under all shades of government. Small hospitals in rural areas in particular have been hit, with many being closed altogether. The very concept of a convalescent hospital has virtually disappeared.
There has been a perfect storm. Although the number of doctors and nurses has increased, and brand news hospitals have been built (often funded on the never-never) the population has also increased exponentially. This seems to have come as a bit of a surprise to NHS executives. On top of that, instead of the population becoming healthier, we’ve become more obese, prone to be diabetic and more generally more ill, more often. Again, this seems to have taken the NHS by surprise. Demands on mental, as well as physical health have increased hugely in recent years, yet the number of mental health beds has declined sharply. Not only that but non-residential mental healthcare funding hasn’t kept pace with demands in any shape or form. As I say, in short a perfect storm.
So why do politicians still refuse to acknowledge the reality that more beds are needed? One explanation is that the advice from NHS England remains that the policy shouldn’t change. But isn’t it the job of politicians to challenge that advice? Let’s look at the evidence…
Well the trend couldn’t be clearer, could it? Under all governments in the last thirty years the total number of hospital beds has been cut – or slashed depending on your viewpoint. These figures come from the King’s Fund. Click on THIS LINK and you can see the exact numbers by running your mouse over the graph. It’s very telling.
The total number of beds in the NHS has declined by more than half, from around 300,000 in 1987 to around 148,000 now. In 1987 the UK population was 56.8 million. The population now is around 66.2 million. The population has increased by 17%, yet the number of hospital beds has declined by more than 50%. Medical advances have certainly been made, but surely not to that extent.
If we look at the number of General & Acute beds, which is the biggest category, the numbers are startling…
The average decline in beds per year during the Blair/Brown government was 2,909. During the Coalition/Conservative years the figure is 1,098.
The figures for mental health beds are even starker.
The biggest cuts in mental health beds came when Care in the Community was launched. However, it’s continued ever since. In the last thirty years bed numbers have been cut by 72%. Astonishing.
The average decline in mental health beds per year during the Blair/Brown government was 1,315. During the Coalition/Conservative years the figure is 786.
Given that the population has increased and the birthrate has increased from 1.64 to 1.81 per woman between 2000 and 2015 (Source: World Bank) you might expect the number of maternity beds to have stabilised or even increased. But no…
The average decline in maternity beds per year during the Blair/Brown government was 291. During the Coalition/Conservative years the figure is 14. Now let’s be clear, maternity care has changed beyond recognition during this period. More women like to give birth at home, and even those that have their babies in hospital are now often in and out within twenty four hours. Back in 1962 when my mother gave birth to me, she was in a nursing home for two weeks, even though it was an easy birth – albeit I was the longest baby any mother had given birth to in that particular establishment!
The only section in that graph that bucks the trend is the number of day beds. This is to be expected given that medical science has advanced and so many more treatments can now be conducted without the need for an overnight stay.
The average increase in day beds per year during the Blair/Brown government was 413. During the Coalition/Conservative years the figure is 218.
A narrative has grown up that it’s the ‘wicked Tories’ who have cut beds and they’re determined to cut the NHS to the bone. These figures demonstrate that hospitla bed cuts are part of a long term strategy that governments of all colours have implemented. And they’ve done this at the behest of the medical establishment.
And when you compare the number of beds per thousand people in Britain and other countries… well, it doesn’t look good.
Admittedly these figures are from 2010, but it’s almost certain that things haven’t changed an awful lot, comparatively, since then. UPDATE: I’m told the UK figure is now 2.6/1000.
And this leads us on to the real issue here – and that’s social care. NHS professionals and administrators have been very keen to cut bed numbers on the premise that once patients have been discharged it’s up to the social care system to take over – especially with geriatric patients. The trouble is that side of the healthcare equation has been largely ignored despite politicians constantly telling us that it’s a policy which needs solving.
I know from personal experience how elderly people take up beds in hospitals even though they shouldn’t be there. They should be in care homes, but the places just don’t exist. Since 2002 an average of 7,000 new care home beds have opened in the UK every year, but by 2026 there will be an additional 14,000 people needing residential care home places per year. (Source: Radio 4 You & Yours). How will these beds be financed? There’s little doubt, that along with housing provision, social care one of the two biggest social challenges facing government.
Chris Hopson, the publicity hungry head of NHS Providers, said this week that 10-15,000 new hospital beds are needed if we are to avoid the kind of crisis we’re seeing at the moment in hospitals up and down the country. That’s between 60 and 90 per acute trust. Bear in mind that some acute trusts have more than one hospital.
Each hospital bed costs the NHS around £150,000 per year. The annual cost of increasing bed numbers by 15,000 would be around £2.25 billion, plus all the infrastructure and staffing costs.
It’s all very well for Simon Stevens to call for an extra £4 billion of funding. Jeremy Corbyn has called for an extra £6 billion. But what would it be spent on? We all remember the huge amounts of extra money that went into the NHS in the early Blair years, but the overwhelming amount of it went on salaries, not into directly improving healthcare.
If we are going to spend a higher per centage of our national income on the NHS then we surely need to decide our priorities. I would suggest that reversing the decline in hospital beds ought to be fairly near the top of that list.
Three years ago I wrote a book called THE NHS: THINGS THAT NEED TO BE SAID. You can buy it from Amazon HERE
12 Jan 2018 at 21:55
Watch out for a sparky row between me and Ayesha a few minutes in… And watch how I can’t bring myself to say ‘shitholes’ on live TV!
12 Jan 2018 at 13:36
“It’s all going terribly well, isn’t it?” was my opener to a friend in Downing Street on the afternoon of the Cabinet reshuffle. I was going to devote this whole column to an in-depth analysis of the reshuffle but I think enough has been said already. Paul Goodman’s analysis on Wednesday said it all. If you go into a reshuffle with an absence of a plan or a narrative, don’t be surprised if it blows up in your face. If you’re trying to relaunch your government with a fresh image, at least have an idea of the headlines you’d like to see in the next day’s papers. If you want it to run smoothly, it might be an idea to choreograph it in advance.
Why on earth did it come as a surprise to Theresa May that Jeremy Hunt wanted to stay at Health, and had several good reasons for doing so? The accusations that it was all about window dressing have stuck, and it’s no surprise as to why. This could have been the reshuffle that showed a real breakthrough for women, yet the number of women who are full cabinet members hasn’t increased. OK, there are two more who “attend”. Big deal. This could have been the reshuffle that really signalled the government’s intent to put housing at the top of its priority list. However, rather than create a new, separate housing ministry, they’ve just altered the letterhead at the DCLG and it becomes the DHCLG, with Sajid Javid having exactly the same responsibilities as before. A lot of Conservatives were rather excited on Monday morning at what was to come. By the end of the day they were left feeling rather flat. Or worse.
What is it that is preventing Kwasi Kwarteng from being promoted to office? I scratch my head and cannot come up with a single reason. He’s clever, erudite, writes like a dream and is brilliant on the media, and yet he still languishes on the backbenches. A total mystery.
The new party chairman Brandon Lewis joined me for a phone-in on LBC only 48 hours or so after he had been appointed. It was a brave decision for a politician now thrust into the limelight and of whom much is expected. He had a tricky start with calls from two Conservative activists who were distinctly unhappy at the way things are going. One made clear he wanted Theresa May out before the next election. You learn a lot about how politicians handle themselves in this kind of arena, but Lewis shone. He approached every question with good humour and had I been a listener rather than his interlocutor I think I’d have found it all a good and refreshing listen.
There are two types of party chairmen – those like Norman Tebbit who act as a lightning rod for their prime minister and take the fight to the opposition and to the media, and then there are those who are fairly anonymous and who regard their main task as saying nothing to offend anyone. Brandon Lewis is a more ebullient version of Norman Tebbit. He clearly knows the size of the task ahead of him, but the question is: can he overcome the inertia that is inherent in the upper echelons of the voluntary party and introduce real reform designed to galvanise the recruitment of a new generation of younger, motivated activists?
I was disappointed that there was no place found for Jacob Rees-Mogg in the reshuffle. Sometimes politicians need to be allowed to prove themselves in office, rather than continue to cultivate a cult through the media. JRM is hugely talented and those talents need to be exploited. Even if he wasn’t to be made a minister, some sort of Vice Chairman role at CCHQ could surely have been found. Alternatively, a junior ministerial role at the Department of Work and Pensions would have been an ideal starting point for him to start the climb up the greasy pole. After all, Margaret Thatcher started her career as a junior pensions minister…
Please don’t think badly of me for continuing to be fascinated by this series of Celebrity Big Brother. It’s mainly because of Ann Widdecombe, it has to be said, as well as Rachel Johnson who is developing into the Mother of the House. Ann has even resorted to flirting with the stunningly good looking former Apprentice contestant Andrew Grady. I certainly can’t blame her for that, but it’s good to see her finally entering into the spirit of the programme rather than remain in a seemingly permanent ‘grump’. She’s very good at ‘grumping’, is our Anne.
This week I’ve published a book by former Enfield North MP Nick de Bois. It’s called ‘Confessions of a Recovering MP’ and details what it’s like to work in the Westminster hot-house and how an MP copes with losing his seat. It’s a very funny book and has had the highest rate of website pre-orders of any book Biteback has ever published. Treat yourself. It’s a cracking read.
Well hold the front page. Tim Farron has finally admitted what we all knew – that he didn’t mean a word of it when in the general election campaign he was forced to say that he didn’t consider gay sex a sin. It’s the sort of thing that really gets politicians a bad name. As Eden Cavalry put it on Twitter – “Gay sex is a sin. It says so in this book where snakes talk, people come back from the dead, a guy walks on water, and a virgin has a baby.”
There was a lot of media fuss about the new army recruitment adverts aimed at gays and muslims this week. I won’t go into that here, but I was horrified to learn that army recruitment has now been contracted out to Capita, or ‘Crapita’ as it now usually known. As usual they are making a total pigs ear of it. I’m all in favour of some government functions being taken over by the private sector where it makes sense, but can anyone name a single area where Capita has got involved that has resulted in a better service and where they have given better value for money? No, thought not. I hope Gavin Williamson will look again at their contract and take them to task for the fact that they continually lose applications from army recruits, take months to process applications and fail to get back to people when they say they will.
6 Jan 2018 at 12:17
Now, dear reader, bear with. This blogpost is really about Michael Wolff, but it takes a little time before we get to him…
Back in June 2004, when I was Conservative candidate in North Norfolk I remember telling my good friend Keith Simpson, MP for the neighbouring constituency, that Boris Johnson was coming to North Norfolk to do a fundraiser for me. He chuckled and asked if I had a backup plan and suggested that Boris might not know which station to go to to get to Norwich. Sure enough, at a quarter to nine on the morning of the visit the phone rings at my house in Swanton Abbott. “Boris here, now look here old boy, it is King’s Cross isn’t it?” As he was supposed to be on the 9am train from Liverpool Street this was not a promising start to my day. I remained as calm as I could while inwardly cursing and suggested he got a train from Kings Cross to King’s Lynn. “Ok, no probs,” he said. Five minutes later the phone rings again. “No luck old bean, no train till 9.45, gets in at 11.30”. At 11.30 we were due in Stody for an interview on North Norfolk Radio. Aha. More cursing. Silently, naturellement. Thinking quickly I dialled up the trains website and found a 9am train to Peterborough. “Excellent,” trills Boris.
Three minutes later the phone goes again. “Damn and blast,” says Boris, “we missed it”. Luckily there was another one 5 minutes later. Which left me with the small problem of how to get to Peterborough from Swanton Abbott in 15 minutes. I might be a fast driver but I’m not that fast. In the end Boris got a taxi from Peterborough and I picked him up on a rather nasty industrial estate in Wisbech. We arrived at North Norfolk Radio 15 minutes late. Then on to Langham Glass where Boris made a pig. Next stop Pinewoods Leisure Centre for Boris to speak at a Conservative fundraiser. We auctioned a glass pig signed (or rather etched) by Boris. Some farmers gave him an excellnt briefing on sugar beet and everyone seemed happy. Except for me. I was supposed to have him safely delivered in Great Yarmouth where he was speaking for their PPC, Mark Fox, by 4pm. At 3.20 we still hadn’t left.
Then came the journey from hell. We got stuck behind every lorry and tractor in Norfolk and eventually got there at about 4.30. So having driven about 150 miles and been driven to the verge of a nervous breakdown I made my way home to Swanton Abbott looking forward to a trip to Sainsbury’s. Back to reality after a day on Planet Boris. What a superstar he is!
Now accompanying Boris on that day was Vanity Fair journalist Michael Wolff. He was writing a lengthy profile of Boris for the magazine, having spotted him as a rising star in the Tory Party. Quite what he made of Boris’s characteristic travel chaos I do not know. What I do know, though, is that I spent the best part of four or five hours with him that day, chatting to him about his job, British politics and Boris. I observed how he would question Boris, I would earwig his conversations with my party workers when he wanted to get their views on the great man. I spent quite some time talking to Wolff myself and found that he had that irritating knack of asking you all the questions you’d rather not be asked. That’s the mark of an excellent journalist.
Over the course of the next few weeks I received several calls from Michael Wolff (pic right). He wanted to check details. He wanted to read out paragraphs of his profile to see what I thought of them. Had he really ‘got’ Boris? Had he made any mistakes? Like many forensic journalists, I didn’t find Wolff especially likeable. He wasn’t there to be liked, though. He was there to do a job, and to my mind the entire experience showed me what a great journalist he is. I’ve since followed his work in Vanity Fair, GQ and The Guardian. Never once have I found his work anything but highly readable and very informative.
The attempts by the Trump White House to trash his reputation is understandable, but it won’t wash. I’ve written this piece to illustrate the professionalism Michael Wolff showed on the only occasions I have met him or talked to him.
You can read Wolff’s profile of Boris in Vanity Fair HERE.
5 Jan 2018 at 14:46
A dramatic moment on CNN Talk today when Michael Wolff’s book FIRE & FURY was delivered live on set!
5 Jan 2018 at 13:38
If I had a pound for every time Ann Widdecombe has said in my presence that she’s never, ever, EVAH appear on Celebrity Big Brother, then I’d certainly have more money than the undoubtedly large fee which persuaded her to do it this year!
Between 2001 and 2010 our theatre show, A NIGHT WITH ANN WIDDECOMBE (arf, arf), toured more than 100 provincial theatres and part of it was her talking about her various TV show experiences. She did Celebrity Fit Club and a couple of other reality TV shows which I now can’t recall, but she was usually asked by an audience member if she’d do Strictly or Big Brother. She said she’d love to do Strictly, but not while she was an MP, but nothing could persuade her to go into the Big Brother house. Well, this year something did. In the opening episode, she said it was the fact that it was an all-women cast that persuaded her. I’m surprised her nose didn’t start growing long, as anyone who knows her knows that Ann is far happier in the company of men than women.
On Thursday night’s episode Ann admitted she snores, and wondered how other housemates would react to it. Rachel Johnson has already said she has a phobia of snoring, so that could be interesting! Seeing as Ann has mentioned it herself, I think I can reveal I have personal experience of Ann’s snoring. [Stop it at the back!]. When we’d drive to theatres all round the country she’d inevitably fall asleep in the passenger seat. Gradually her head would loll, back, her mouth would open and out would come some startling snoring noises. I could turn the music up as loud as I liked, but it had no effect. Even a dose of Meatload had no effect. The eruptions would continue. The only think that quelled them was a quick poke to her side. It did make me laugh, though! When she eventually woke up she’d always say: “I hope I didn’t snore”… “Absolutely not,” I replied…
I suspect Ann will surprise herself by the relationships she forms, unless she decides not to play the game and keep herself to herself. However, I’d be very surprised if she hits it off with former Coronation Street actress Amanda Barrie. There could be trouble ahead.
On Wednesday morning my new mobile phone was snatched out of my hand by a moped. I’d only had the wretched thing for six days. It happened so quickly it took a few seconds for my brain to compute what had happened. At first you feel a fool, then you feel angry. It was only when someone told me I’d been lucky I hadn’t had acid chucked at my face that I started to realise how serious it could have been. I have no hope of the perpetrators being apprehended or getting the phone back, although I suppose stranger things have happened.
I tweeted about the experience, of course, but certainly lived to regret it. The abuse I got was quite unbelievable. You’d have thought the natural human reaction would have been to react by sympathising or empathising. Some people did, but others took the view that I deserved it and it took me out of my “Norfolk bubble”. “Funniest thing I have read all day” said a black cab driver. Blocked. I mean, what kind of person reacts like that? Twitter is in many ways a fantastic invention, but boy does it bring out the worst in human nature.
Well Toby Young has had an interesting week, hasn’t he? I don’t know him well, but no one can doubt his commitment to improving educational standards. His achievements in setting up four free schools cannot be questioned, but he’s always been a figure the left love to hate. His appointment to the board of the Office for Students has caused massive offence to the likes of Owen Jones. Apparently it’s a disgrace for anyone on he right to be appointed to any public body and shows how biased “this Tory government” is. This conveniently ignores the fact that the new chair of the Office for Students is Sir Michael Barber, a Blairite if ever there was one. His critics also ignore the fact that he applied for the post – and was presumably interviewed for it.
Toby’s big problem is some of the things he’s tweeted in the past. There but for the grace of God… etc etc. If a 16 year old Kent youth crime commissioner is forced to resign over some unfortunate tweets she had made as a 13 year old is forced to resign, then some will say the same should apply in this case.
This is all part of a left-right culture war. The left – actually, I mean the hard left – are organising in a way we haven’t seen since the 1980s. The right will need to do the same. Wagons will need to be circled, defences dug. At the moment the broad right is a mess. If Toby Young is forced out, just watch who they will come for next. He certainly wouldn’t be the last.
The big story of this year, in my view, is going to be North Korea. I genuinely feat that there will be a military conflict between North Korea and the United States. The year hasn’t got off to a good start. Trump’s tweet about the size of his nuclear button was so childish as to almost be beyond belief. Wars break out when leaders indulge in hyped up rhetoric and when misunderstandings develop into something far worse. There is huge scope for this here. The one positive development was Kim Jong Un’s decision to reopen the hotline between Pyongyang and Seoul. Trump, meanwhile, went further off the rails later on the same day of the nuclear button tweet. He issued a statement in response to a story that Steve Bannon had told author Michael Wolff that the Trump campaign’s meeting with the Russians verged on the ‘treasonous’. Trump let rip, questioning Bannon’s sanity and denying he had ever been a person of influence. It’s worth reading the statement in full as it is testament to the fact that Trump is totally out of control and ignores any advice he is given to tone down his rhetoric. He may not listen to his political and media advisers, but let’s hope he listens to his Generals when they advise him not to press the nuclear button and take out North Korea.
31 Dec 2017 at 20:22
I didn’t do any new year’s resolutions last year so I thought I would do so for 2018. I wonder how many I will achieve.
1. To be consistently under 16 stone by the end of the year. I’m 16 1/2 at the moment and have been for some time.
2. To say ‘no’ more often, and not feel guilty about it.
3. Start writing a book. I have no idea what about, though.
4. Get to 1 million listeners a week for my LBC show.
5. Ignore the Twitter trolls and stop being wound up by them.
6. Visit Rome for the first time since 1980!
7. Travel outside Europe.
8. Do more writing for newspapers and magazines.
9. Restart my blog, by committing to write at least one piece a day when the new site is launched in January.
10. Socialise more with friends who I feel I have neglected in recent years.
If you’re reading this at the end of 2017 or the beginning of 2018, a very happy new year to everyone.
31 Dec 2017 at 09:00
I don’t know why, but last year I didn’t do any predictions for 2017, which was probably just as well, as I doubt any of them would have come true. Here are my predictive offerings for 2018.
1. There won’t be a general election in 2018.
2. Theresa May will still be Prime Minister on 31 December 2018.
3. The US and North Korea will engage in military action against each other this year.
4. Michel Barnier is sidelined by Jean Claude Juncker in the Brexit negotiations.
5. ITV commissions a further series of ‘After the News’.
6. Theresa May will conduct a reshuffle before the end of January, which will involve either Boris Johnson or Philip Hammond (or both) moving jobs.
7. Donald Trump will lose control of both Houses of Congress in the November midterm elections.
8. England will reach at least the semi-finals of the World Cup.
9. George Galloway is allowed to rejoin the Labour Party.
10. Russia Today loses its OfCom operating licence and is forced to shut down in the UK. Russia shuts down BBC transmissions in Russia in retaliation.