Diary

ConHome Diary: There is another story I could have written, isn’t there Prime Minister?!

20 Jul 2014 at 09:17

Yesterday’s Times Diary carried a bit of a bombshell. According to them Lord Ashcroft is keen for me to stand for London Mayor in 2016. So keen in fact that he has never mentioned it to me. Boris says being London mayor is the best job in British politics, so good in fact that he has ruled out standing for a third term. But there are growing numbers of people who believe he regrets making that pledge and is considering ratting on it. Well if he does that, it would save me from prostrating myself at the feet of London’s voters, wouldn’t it? I suppose people put two and two together and think, well, he hosts a four hour radio show in London with half a million listeners, that’s a pretty good platform. Maybe, but I have absolutely no interest in doing it. So let me rule myself out in very clear words which can’t be taken two ways. I’m not going to leave any door open, any chink of light. I’m not interested. I’ve already got what I consider the best job in London and nothing – nothing – could persuade me to stand for any sort of high profile national office again. End of. Period. Is that clear?
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Predicting reshuffles is a mug’s game. Enter the mug. On Monday I made 20 predictions on my blog, maybe expecting to get 5 or 6 right. In the end, by my reckoning I got 15 ½ out of 20, which is a record most lobby journalists would kill for (he says modestly). But it was the William Hague prediction which stole the headlines. “You must have had a tip-off,” said some. “You broke the embargo,” said others. In fact, I predicted his demise in this column back in early June, and re-predicted it in my predictions blog on Monday. No one tipped me off, either. It was purely a bit of political wind-sniffing. Sometimes you can make educated guesses, and that’s all it was. Mind you, I was preparing for a lot of egg on my face on Monday evening after Twitter went mad when I suggested to Nick Robinson Hague would be the high profile minister tipped to go. There followed a couple of hours of very nervous shifting in my seat. It was only when Sky said they would be going to Downing Street for a major announcement at 10pm that I realised I had probably struck the prediction jackpot. Didn’t see the Gove move coming at all though. But then again, nor did anyone else, which was a minor miracle seeing as he had agreed to it a week before. The Westminster sieve didn’t leak for once.
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Talking of the Govester, I interviewed him on my show on Tuesday afternoon and he was in characteristically ebullient form. I asked what Mrs Gove’s reaction had been to the fact that her husband’s pay had just taken a £36,000 dip southwards. Chief Whips don’t get paid as much as cabinet ministers apparently. He admitted he hadn’t told her, and I got the distinct impression he hadn’t realised it himself. I think it’s safe to say Mrs Gove (aka Sarah Vine) was told later that evening, for the following morning she retweeted a Daily Mail article whose headline described the reshuffle as ‘shabby’. You can’t really blame her, can you?
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On Monday night my mobile phone almost melted with the number of texts I was sending to friends who had got the push. One or two maintained it was their decision and their decision alone, while one or two others were bloody furious. Some of the sackings or (un)forced resignations didn’t come as a surprise. Others, however, seem inexplicable. Damian Green’s departure falls into that category – a highly competent minister, good media performer and original thinker who hasn’t really put a foot wrong. If competence counted for anything he’d be in the Cabinet. He is the Alistair Burt of this reshuffle – a universally popular minister who was flung overboard for no apparent reason. Why was David Jones sacked after only a year as Welsh Secretary? Has he actually done anything wrong? I can’t think of anything, although I am told Cameron thought he was too gobby in Cabinet. Hugh Robertson is another very competent minister who is leaving the Foreign Office. He was a huge success as Sports Minister, something which could hardly be said of Helen Grant, whose public profile is less than zero and who stumbles from one disaster to another. Yet inexplicably she remains in post. I say it is inexplicable, but it isn’t really is it? The lesson from this reshuffle is that it is a real political disadvantage to own a pair of gonads nowadays.
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If there’s one ministerial wall I’d love to be a fly on it is in the room where Department of Transport ministerial meetings will take place. I imagine Patrick McLoughlin is already honing his chairing skills, which will probably take the form of telling various of his ministers to ‘shut the fuck up’ so he can get a word in edgeways. Susan Kramer is hardly renowned for keeping her mouth shut, Robert Goodwill is a typical blunt northerner and now we have John Hayes and Claire Perry to join them. It’s almost the stuff of which sitcoms are made. I’m not quite sure what John Hayes has got on the Prime Minister but it must be quite something. He really is the Lyndon Johnson minister of this government – better to have him on the inside pissing out, rather than on the outside pissing in.
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I wonder if David Cameron will live to regret insulting Liam Fox by offering him the very same junior ministerial job he had more than twenty years ago. Crass isn’t a strong enough word for it. And of course the minister Fox would have replaced, Hugo Swire, was in blissful ignorance that his job had been offered to Fox. He was on a tour of the US and safely out of the country. Had Fox accepted it would have been the second time that Cameron had shafted one of his early supporters, having already sacked him once before, only to bring him back into the fold a year later.
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Poor old Cleggy was bleating on about how you can’t take David Cameron seriously on promoting women on his LBC phone-in yesterday. This from a man who in four years hasn’t promoted a single LibDem woman to the Cabinet. Yet again, breathtaking in his hypocrisy. I think people have almost come to expect it of him now.
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This week came the bombshell that Clegg is going to rat on his support for the Spare Room Subsidy aka the Bedroom Tax. I don’t know why anyone should be surprised. Like a rat which has been cornered, desperate people do desperate things. And if you’re at 6% in the polls you’re desperate. Labour will now put down another Commons motion and challenge the LibDems to support it. Cameron should call Clegg’s bluff and make clear he regards it as a confidence vote, and if it’s lost the coalition will come to an end. Whichever way the LibDems vote, they’d be even more finished than they already are. Yellow. The lot of them.
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There is another story I could have written in this piece. Isn’t there Prime Minister?!

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Video: Iain & Derek Draper on Question Time Extra (Part 2)

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Iain Dale For, Er, Mayor of London! You've Got to Laugh...

17 Jul 2014 at 12:04

One mention in the Times Diary might normally be enough, but two in one day? That normally spells trouble… And so this is what they printed this morning under the headline TIPSTERS HAVE RESHUFFLE BLUES

Political prediction is a dangerous business (Lord knows I’ve made lots of duff calls), but the Telegraph has probably buried its headline from last weekend that suggested Eric Pickles and Iain Duncan Smith would “make way for women” in the reshuffle. Likewise, The Mail on Sunday will forget its “scoop” that Liam Fox was set for a comeback. The champion tipster was the publisher and broadcaster Iain Dale, who made 20 predictions on his website and got most right, including William Hague leaving the Foreign Office, Pickles and IDS staying put and Michael Fallon stepping up. Perhaps Dale might now like to pick a Tory candidate for mayor of London in 2016. With Seb Coe and Karren Brady losing interest, they lack a big hitter.

And then came this…,

Well-lubricated Westminster pub gossip suggested last week that Lord Ashcroft, the party’s eminence grise, is keen on Dale himself standing for mayor. Dale laughs it off, sort of. “I don’t detect a clamour from the good people of London for me to stand,” he says. “I’m not exactly Boris Mark 2. Or maybe that is a good thing . . .”

I think that bit of gossip was incredibly well lubricated. I can assure you that Lord Ashcroft and I have had no conversations about this and if we had I suspect one of us would have fallen off our respective perches laughing at the suggestion. Well, both of us would, probably. The key in this world is to know your limits. And I know mine. Really. In the words of George Bush Snr, ‘Not gonna happen’.

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LBC 97.3: Iain Dale talks to Peter Hennessy

Professor Peter Hennessy discusses his latest book DISTILLING THE FRENZY

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My Reshuffle Analysis Part 1 - Night of the Wrong Knives?

15 Jul 2014 at 08:16

“Well if it doesn’t happen, no one will ever remember we predicted it would.” Those were the words with which I signed off an interview on LBC on Friday after I had put to Sam my prediction that William Hague would leave the Cabinet in the reshuffle. And so it came to pass. I have to say last night was a bit of a rollercoaster. On the train back to Tonbridge I saw a tweet from Nick Robinson predicting a big name would be leaving the Cabinet. “It’s Hague”, I tweeted back to him. And then Twitter and the world of political journalism went a bit crazy. The Mail Online’s Matt Chorley ran an article purely based on that one tweet. They reckoned it must be true because no one had denied it. “Christ,” I thought. If this doesn’t happen I’m going to have a lot of egg on my face. Then I heard Sky say that they would be crossing to Number Ten at 10pm for a major announcement. “Stay cool,” I thought. This could be it. And it was. “Phew”.

The truth is, I had predicted it in my ConHome Diary column back on June 13th and on this blog yesterday morning. Well, when I say predicted, floated the idea may be more accurate. I hadn’t had any tip off, all I did was sniff the political wind. I just felt Hague might have had enough and might allow one of the big offices of state to be freed up. I certainly hadn’t imagine Hague would stay in the Cabinet has Leader of the House and I certainly can’t quite see the point of it. What’s he going to achieve there. He will be a lame duck Leader from day one. Far better for him to have quit altogether.

The identity of his successor soon leaked and Philip Hammond will apparently be the new Foreign Secretary. This is an interesting appointment for a number of reasons. Firstly, at a time when EU negotiations are about to start he is certainly the most Eurosceptic holder of the post in history. his EU counterparts will note that he has said if there were a referendum tomorrow, he’d vote to leave. But his appointment is also interesting as he now joins George Osborne, Theresa May and Boris Johnson as likely successors to Cameron. Cameron is avoiding the mistake Margaret Thatcher made, and giving potential successors the chance to shine. In all likelihood, if the Tories win the next election, Hammond and Osborne are likely to swap jobs at some point, probably not immediately after the election.

Last night I dubbed this reshuffle the “Night of the Wrong Knives.” The sackings were ruthless in their execution, and were reminiscent of Harold Macmillan’s cull of ministers fifty years ago. Not that it benefited Macmillan in the long run. Cameron is known to be an admirer of Macmillan’s, but perhaps this was taking things too far.

Some of the sackings or (un)forced resignations didn’t come as a surprise. Others, however, seem inexplicable. Damian Green’s departure falls into that category – a highly competent minister, good media performer and original thinker who hasn’t really put a foot wrong. If competence counted for anything he’d be in the Cabinet. He is the Alistair Burt of this reshuffle – a universally popular minister who was flung overboard for no apparent reason. Why was David Jones sacked after only a year as Welsh Secretary? Has he actually done anything wrong? I can’t think of anything, although I am told Cameron thought he was too gobby in Cabinet. Hugh Robertson is another very competent minister who is leaving the Foreign Office. He was a huge success as Sports Minister – just contrast his record with the shambolic performance of the current incumbent. But she’s a woman, so she’ll be safe, no doubt.

Both law officers have gone – Dominic Grieve and Oliver Heald. Heald had only been back in government for a year and Grieve’s face never fitted with Cameron. They were at constant loggerheads over human rights, and his departure means that the roadblock to a new party policy on the European Convention on Human Rights can be crafted without regard to Grieve’s concerns.

The other cabinet departures were heavily predicted – Ken Clarke, Andrew Lansley and Owen Paterson. In addition Alan Duncan, David Willetts, Andrew Robothan, Greg Barker, Nick Hurd and Stephen Hammond all resigned or were sacked. So all in all, 14 middle aged white men were disposed of, with several more probably following in their wake today. It’s likely that more than half of them will be replaced by women from the 2010 intake. It seems equally clear that there will be few promotions for anyone elected before 2010.

In other news, I heard late last night that John Hayes is replacing Stephen Hammond at the Department of Transport. Words almost fail me. Personally I like John Hayes, but if ever there was a square peg in a round hole this appointment is one. One MP said to me that this was a “pissing in the tent” appointment. I think we all know what that means, and I reckon he is bang on.

I gave my other predictions in the post below so I won’t repeat them here. Apart from one. Adam Boulton and others are speculating that Grant Shapps is moving. My information is that is completely wrong and he will be staying as chairman right up to the election. He’s acted as a good lightning rod for Cameron and doesn’t mind taking flak even when the fault lies elsewhere – take those posters following the budget which were nothing to do with him, but he went on TV and took the rap like a the trooper that he is. He also gets on with Lynton Crosby, something which is vital for the holder of that post. Boulton tips Gove for the job. I think not. Can you imagine Gove and Crosby agreeing on a strategy? No, me neither.

Whatever happens, we are in for an interesting day.

I may update this post as the morning develops.

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Iain Dale talks to the Fleet Street Fox

Susan Boniface, aka The Fleet Street Fox, joins Iain to discuss her life as a blogger, tweeter and tabloid hack.

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Twenty Random Reshuffle Predictions & Completely Baseless Tips

14 Jul 2014 at 10:22

I’ve seen so much baseless reshuffle speculation in the papers over the last few days that I thought I would add to it. Much of it is based on nothing more than sniffing the political wind, but some people are better sniffers than others. If I get half of these right, I will be pleased!

1. Grant Shapps ain’t going nowhere
2. Mike Penning will be promoted either to the Cabinet, or a frontline position like immigration minister
3. My outside tip is for William Hague to leave the cabinet allowing one of the three top positions to become free
4. Mark Harper to return in a Minister of State role
5. Esther McVey, Nicky Morgan and Anna Soubry to join the Cabinet
6. Ken Clarke, Sir George Young and Andrew Lansley to leave the Cabinet
7. Penny Mordaunt to join the Ministry of Defence
8. Priti Patel to enter government
9. Kwasi Kwarteng and Jesse Norman to join the whips office
10. Cameron to fire one or all of his original leadership supporters, Greg Barker, Andrew Robothan and Hugo Swire
11. Eric Pickles will stay where he is – to do anything else would signal madness has set in
12. Iain Duncan Smith will refuse to move from the DWP. Again.
13. Gavin Barwell to move from the whips office, maybe to the DCLG to take on Minister for London role
14. Michael Fallon to join the cabinet or kept in post but given the right to attend cabinet
15. Therese Coffey to join the whips office
16. Watch out for a couple of rebels to be given jobs – Tracey Crouch and Stewart Jackson spring to mind
17. Watch out for one or two former ministers to be recycled, just to give the others hope
18. Theresa Villiers for EU Commissioner. Possibly. Or maybe not. This has been one of Number 10’s better kept secrets. Truth is, no one knows
19. Liz Truss to replace David Willetts as Minister of State for Universities with the right to attend Cabinet
20. Alan Duncan will fall on his sword

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LBC Book Club: Best of 2012 (Part 1)

Part 1 of 2. With Jack Straw, Lady Pamela Hicks, Peter Hennessy and President Mary Robinson.

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Keith Simpson's Summer 2014 Reading List

13 Jul 2014 at 13:34

Another nine months before the General Election and, probably, barring accidents, no more ministerial reshuffles following this summer. Historically, July, August, September have been months of crisis in international affairs, and this summer we commemorate the centenary of the First World War. Parliamentary colleagues who are already yearning for sun and sand may seek escapism in bodice ripping novels, or what Lloyd George referred to as “shilling shockers”. But the more discerning of us, and I include husbands, wives and partners, often seek more substantial literary fare. As usual this selection is personal, and mainly consists of books published this year with an emphasis on history, military history and politics – a sound basis for any political career, and maybe, it would have benefited Tony Blair, if as it is alleged, Roy Jenkins had mused that it would have helped him as Prime Minister if he had read history rather than law at university. Maybe.

Mentioning Roy Jenkins highlights one of the very best political biographies this year. John Campbell has written biographies of F E Smith, Edward Heath and Margaret Thatcher. Whilst Jenkins was still alive he wrote a short, rather uncritical biography. Given access to the Jenkins family papers and interviews with many contemporaries, his Roy Jenkins: A Well Rounded Life (Jonathan Cape £30) is a tour de force, and whilst a biography of admiration is not hagiography.

Attlee is always rated highly as a Prime Minister by British political scientists and has been well served by biographers including Kenneth Harris, Frances Beckett and Thomas-Symonds. So perhaps not much more to add? Well Michael Jago in Clement Attlee: The Inevitable Prime Minister (Biteback £25) has discovered some new sources and has admirably reworked old ones to show that that whilst Attlee was lucky, he has experience, determination and grit. One for Ed Miliband.

Christopher Sandford is a prolific biographer, whose books include the Rolling Stones, Mick Jagger, Imran Khan and Steve McQueen. Based upon official papers and private correspondence his Harold and Jack The Remarkable Friendship of Prime Minister Macmillan and President Kennedy (Prometheus Books £15) purports to cast new light on the many layered relationships between Macmillan and Kennedy. One for Obama and Cameron?

The Times journalist Ben Macintyre has written several well received books on spying and espionage in the Second World War. A Spy Among Friends Kim Philby and the Great Betrayal (Bloomsbury £20) is more than another biography of Philby, but a study of a man who betrayed his family and friends and lived a life of deceit which enabled him to operate at the centre of British and American intelligence.

It could be claimed that Eleanor, the daughter of Karl Marx, was the first modern feminist. Rachel Holmes has written a dazzling and intensely partisan biography Eleanor Marx A Life (Bloomsbury £25) of an exceptional woman, who was secretary and researcher to her father, but wrote and campaigned on political and social issues in her own right.

For those parliamentarians unfortunate enough to have fallen foul of the law and thus served Her Majesty under constraint, there is always the opportunity to keep a diary and write about those experiences – Jeffrey Archer and Jonathan Aitken being two examples. Now the former Labour MP Denis MacShane has followed that example and written Prison Diaries (Biteback £20).

Born into a relatively privileged background but at the shabby gentility end of the social spectrum, Jean Trumpington had a fairly basic education followed by the land army, Bletchley Park, commercial life in New York, wife of a public school headmaster, Cambridge City Councillor, then a life peer and a minister in Thatcher’s government. Jean Trumpington has lived life to the full which comes through with vim in her delightful book Coming Up Trumps A Memoir (Macmillan £16.99).

American politicians who write or have written for them, their autobiographies fall into two categories – those who are at the end of their careers and wish to establish a reputation and retaliate against those who have done them down, and those who use their autobiography as a manifesto for higher office. Hilary Rodham Clinton Hard Choices (Simon&Schuster £20) falls into the second category, but with some interesting, usually positive comments about American and world politicians. A must for Simon Burns.

Many of the books written about Parliament are scholarly but tedious to read. The Labour MP and gadfly Chris Bryant has decided to write about Parliament through its Members, and has published earlier this year Parliament The Biography Volume One (Doubleday) which covered the period from the early middle ages to the early nineteenth century. He has been keen to demolish many old myths about Parliament and its Members. His second volume of Parliament The Biography (Doubleday £25) covers the period of reform from the early nineteenth century to Thatcher. Entertaining, opinionated and partisan.

And yet more books on Churchill? Every form of Churchill’s life, interests, family, relationships and career are being steadily covered. I await with interest Churchill and His Dentists (joke). But to be fair several of the latest studies cover crucial areas of Churchill’s wide ranging interests. Vincent Orange has been an historian of the RAF and biographer of senior RAF officers and in Churchill and His Airmen Relationships, Intrigue and Policy Making 1914-1945 (Grub Street £25) shows Churchill’s fascination with flying and air power.

Churchill disliked conventional education but read and wrote widely, and enjoyed the company of authors, actors and film makers. This side of Churchill’s personality had a powerful impact on how he saw himself as a politician and a minister which Jonathan Rose examines in The Literary Churchill Author, Reader, Actor (Yale University Press £25).

Edward Thring was a well known nineteenth century headmaster and for thirty-four years was head of Uppingham School which he developed from a small grammar school to a significant public school. No establishment man he, as he fought prejudice and ignorance and developed a broad curriculum and child – centred teaching methods through two influential books. Later in life he became deeply interested in educational opportunities for women. Nigel Richardson has now written the first modern biography Thring of Uppingham Victorian Educator (The University of Buckingham Press £25). One for Michael Gove and Tristram Hunt.

Timothy Heppell has written several books on the modern Conservative Party, and now in The Tories From Winston Churchill to David Cameron (Bloomsbury £18.99) has written an accessible history and analysis.

Rob Wilson, Conservative MP and PPS to the Chancellor, wrote a very good study on the formation of the present Coalition. In The Eye of the Storm (Biteback £20) he considers how politicians and ministers deal with political and personal crises, including Charles Clarke, Jacqui Smith, William Hague, Jeremy Hunt and Vince Cable.

With the rise and success of UKIP, Revolt on the Right Support for the Radical Right in Britain (Routledge £14.99) by Robert Ford and Matthew Goodwin is the “must read” book of the year in British politics.

In their time, both David Davis and Gerald Kaufman have written “bluffer’s guides” on how to be a minister. Now former Labour Cabinet Minister John Hutton with Leigh Lewis, has brought their experiences up to date with his own How To Be a Minister (Biteback £18.99) A must for ambitious thrusters in the Conservative Parliamentary Party 2010 intake.

Throughout the twentieth century and before, hundreds of determined British women defied social conventions of the day in order to seek influence and adventure abroad , travellers, explorers, business women, advocates of reform and women’s suffrage, and as wives and partners of diplomats, soldiers and colonial officials. Yet until 1946, no British woman could officially represent her nation abroad, and the prejudices of Whitehall and the Foreign Office were reflected in many other countries. This is well documented in Helen McCarthy Women of the World The Rise of the Female Diplomat (Bloomsbury £25) One for the Foreign Secretary and the Permanent Secretary.

Famously, Lytton Strachey’s Eminent Victorians (1918) ridiculed the great ones of the nineteenth century. Now W Sydney Robinson, who recently wrote a well received biography of the Victorian investigative journalist W T Stead, has written The Last Victorians A Daring Reassessment of Four Twentieth Century Eccentrics (Robson Press £20). They are William Joynson-Hicks 1866-1932, the moralising Home Secretary; W R Inge (1860-1954), the gloomy Dean of St Paul’s Cathedral; John Reith, 1889-1971, the moralising and intemperate founder of the BBC, and Arthur Bryant (1899-1985), the ultra patriotic popular historian and journalist.

Kwasi Kwarteng, Conservative MP for Spelthorne is the author of Ghosts of Empire Britain’s Legacies in the Modern World (2012). He is fascinated by the historical pattern – at least from the sixteenth century – of war waging, financial debt and fluctuations between paper money and the gold standard which he explores in War and Gold A Five Hundred Year History of Empires, Adventures and Debt (Bloomsbury £25).

Another MP who is a distinguished historian is Tristram Hunt, Labour MP for Stoke-on-Trent Central and Shadow Secretary of State for Education, and sparring partner at the despatch box with Michael Gove. Biographer of Friedrich Engels and author of Building Jerusalem The Rise and Fall of the Victorian City (2005) he has now written a well researched, stimulating and original book Ten Cities That made an Empire (Allen Lane £25) in which he examines the history, culture and development of ten of the most significant cities of the British Empire – Boston, Bridgetown, Dublin, Cape Town, Calcutta, Hong Kong, Melbourne, New Delhi and Liverpool.

The role of a British settlers, entrepreneurs, businessmen, colonial governors and slaves, and the part they played in establishing a dominance in the West Indies and enriching the United Kingdom was graphically told by Matthew Parker in The Sugar Barons Family, Corruption, Empire and War (2012). Adopting a longer and wider historical perspective is Carrie Gibson’s Empire’s Crossroads A History of the Caribbean From Columbus to the Present Day (Macmillan £25).

Paddy Ashdown, Liberal Democrat Peer, former Party Leader, former Royal Marine Commando, former international diplomat, is author of A Brilliant Little Operation The Cockleshell Heroes and the Most Courageous Raid of World War 2 (2012). Published to coincide with the seventieth anniversary of D-Day he has now written The Cruel Victory The French Resistance, D-Day and the Battle for the Vercors 1944 (William Collins £25), which deals with the tragic circumstances of the allied special forces and the French resistance at Vercors who were successfully attacked and brutally crushed by the Germans in the summer of 1944.

The international conference held at Bretton Woods in July 1944 and hosted by the USA saw them establish a new financial order which lasted for over thirty years. The meeting was dominated by the personalities and intellectual arguments of the senior US delegate Harry Dexter White and the senior UK delegate John Maynard Keynes. This conference and its consequences is examined by Ed Conway in The Summit The Biggest Battle of the Second World War (Little, Brown £25). This is the second major book in just over a year on Bretton Woods, the earlier being by Benn Steil The Battle of Bretton Woods (2013).

Books on the Gestapo range from personal reminiscences, mainly of victims, general illustrated books recycling secondary sources and known as “military pornography”, and scholarly accounts. Translated form the German The Gestapo Power and Terror in the Third Reich (OUP £19.99) by Carsten Dams and Michael Stolle traces the history of the organisation, its personnel and how it was used as an instrument of coercion and terror in Germany and occupied Europe, and how many of its people escaped punishment after the war and were able to work for either the American, British, or Soviet intelligence services and the West German and East German political police.

High in the mountains of the southern Massif Central in France is the small, remote village of Le Chambon-sur-Lignon. Along with other villages they sheltered and helped Jews, communists and resisters during the Nazi occupation. There were those who collaborated and supported Vichy but the majority did not. Caroline Moorehead has spoken to villagers and those they sheltered and searched the archives to write Village of Secrets Defying the Nazis in Vichy France (Chatto and Windus £20).

British foreign policy is haunted by the legacy of appeasement, and how its interpretation and implementation in the interwar period tainted it forever as a method of diplomacy. This is examined by R Gerald Hughes in The Postwar Legacy of Appeasement British Foreign Policy Since 1945 (Bloomsbury £22.99) and influences our current debates on the Ukraine and Syria.

British military operations since the end of the Cold war have spanned the full spectrum of military commitments from the limited ones such as Sierra Leone and Libya to intense and drawn out campaigns like Iraq and Afghanistan. The RUSI has produced an edited volume based on workshops and a conference edited by Adrian L Johnson Wars in Peace British Military Operations since 1991 (RUSI £20). The political and strategic aspects are addressed and should be one for the members of the Foreign Affairs and Defence Select Committees.

An Intimate War An Oral History of the Helmand Conflict 1978-2012 (C Hurst and Co £25) is an account of the last thirty-four years of conflict in Helmand Province seen through the eyes of the Helmandis. The author Mike Martin was a TA officer and a Pashto speaker who interviewed dozens of Helmandis to get a different perspective of the conflict in Afghanistan. Media reports and rumours around the Whitehall bazaars claimed the MOD was not best pleased with his account. Government, like many professions and businesses, is susceptible to kicking difficult problems into the long grass. The former Labour Cabinet Minister Charles Charke, experienced government under Blair and has been fascinated by the habit of Whitehall to prevaricate and avoid taking difficult decisions. In The Too Difficult Box The Big Issues Politicians Can’t Crack (Biteback £25) he has edited a series of lectures by former ministers and experts on all the big issues frequently avoided, from Europe, national security, climate change, pensions, banking regulation, immigration, Lords reform, to assisted dying, just to mention a few. Proactive and stimulating as an editor, Charles Clarke shows what a loss he is to the political world.

With the centenary of the outbreak of the First World War upon us the reader is spoilt for choice with an avalanche of books covering every aspect. This summer is a good time to catch up not least because of instability in so many areas of the world. A good overview can be found in Hew Strachan (ed) The Oxford Illustrated History of the First World War (OUP £25) which pulls together an international team and the latest research. Christopher Clark’s The Sleepwalkers How Europe Went to War in 1914 (Penguin £10.99) is less judgemental on Germany, whilst Max Hastings Catastrophe Europe Goes to War 1914 (William Collins £9.99) is an unapologetic case for the righteousness of the British decision to go to war, but scathing in criticism of the allied political and military leadership. The impact of the war and its legacies is superbly dealt with by David Reynolds The Long Shadow The Great War and the Twentieth Century (Simon & Schuster £25).

For those who have visited or are intending visiting one of the cemeteries of memorials maintained by the Commonwealth War Graves Commission then the role of the first Director General Fabian Ware and the decision to establish these cemeteries is covered by David Crane Empires of the Dead How One Man’s Vision Led to the Creation of WWI’s War Graves (William Collins £8.99).

Former foreign secretary David Owen is fascinated by what he sees as a “mind frame” at the Foreign and War Offices before 1914 which locked Britain into political and military relationships with France and Russia and is developed in The Hidden Perspective The Military Conversations of 1908-1914 (Haus Publishing £21).

Tim Butcher is an author journalist and explorer and in The Trigger Hunting the Assassin Who Brought the World to War (Chatto & Windus £18.99) he examines the young Bosnian Serb nationalist Gavrilo Princip who assassinated Archduke Franz Ferdinand. The author literally retraces Princip’s childhood and youth across the Balkans and seeks to understand his background and motivation. It maybe inappropriate given the consequences of the assassination but I am reminded of Spike Milligan’s favourite fantasy newspaper headline “Archduke Franz Ferdinand Found Alive!” First World War a Mistake!”

Thomas Otte is a distinguished diplomatic historian who has written, The Foreign Office Mind The Making of British Foreign Policy 1865-1914 (Cambridge University Press £22.99) and has now published July Crisis The World’s Descent into War Summer 1914 (Cambridge University Press £22.99). In this magisterial account the author argues that to understand how and why Europe descended into world war one must recognise the near collective failure of statecraft and diplomacy by the political leaders and diplomats of Europe. One for the FCO and the Cabinet Office.

Although the overwhelming majority of British parliamentarians supported the Liberal government’s decision to go to war on 4 August 1914, there were voices who opposed it, including Arthur Ponsonby the Chair of the Liberal Foreign Affairs Committee. His role and views are examined by Duncan Marlor in Fatal Fortnight Arthur Ponsonby and the Fight for British Neutrality in 1914 (Frontline Books £25).

The role of the public schools in nurturing a cultural and military atmosphere of leadership provided a source of thousands of young men who served mainly as officers in the First World War. In Public Schools and the Great War (Pen & Sword £25) Anthony Seldon and David Walsh have attempted to correct the myths and caricatures whilst detailing the extensive casualties school by school. Alexandra Churchill has taken this further in Blood and Thunder The Boys of Eton College and First World War (The History Press £20).

A lot of popular history was written at the time and more recently looking at the casualties suffered by sportsmen. The annual Wisden Cricketers’ Almanack published during the war included a roll of honour, and by 1919 Wisden had carried almost 1,800 obituaries. Mistakes were made which have now been corrected by Andrew Renshaw (ed) in Wisden on the Great War The Lives of Cricket’s Fallen 1914-1918 (Wisden £40) which is a mine of information.

Max Egremont has written, amongst others, biographies of Siegfried Sassoon and Arthur Balfour. In Some Desperate Glory The First World War the Poets Knew (Picador £20) Egremont combines part group biography of eleven war poets, part history, part poetic anthology. He goes beyond the collective of “war poets” to examine them as individuals in all their complexities.

Thank goodness for political diaries and letters, especially in the period before there were official cabinet minutes. In the era of the First World War several members of the Liberal Cabinet kept diaries whilst Asquith who was infatuated with the young Venetia Stanley wrote her gushing letters, sometimes two or three times a day and in Cabinet meetings. During the war he mentioned political and military decisions and commented on leading personalities. Michael and Eleanor Brock edited these as H H Asquith Letters to Venetia Stanley (OUP £18) in 1982. Finally they have edited a part of Asquith’s wife Margot’s war time diary – Margot Asquith’s Great War Diary 1914-1916 The View From Downing Street (Oxford £30). This volume is valuable not least for the one hundred page introduction and commentary. Margot was vivacious, opinionated, extravagant and frequently wrong, but her diary entries can be both amusing and perceptive. She appears to have tolerated her husband’s infatuation with Venetia Stanley.

Jerry White is a historian of London with several books to his credit. In Zeppelin Nights London in the First World War (Bodley Head £25) he uses official papers, and letters and diaries to show how the war changed London. Everything from the size of the population, the internment of aliens, the growth of war industry, better wages and more work for the working class, the enlistment of men and casualties, wounded and hospitals, and on the zeppelin and gotha air raids.

Given the current situation in Iraq, the historical context is crucial and Ian Rutlege Enemy on the Euphrates The British Occupation of Iraq and the Great Arab Revolt 1914-1921 (Saqi Books) provides just such a basis from the Arab perspective and gets the reader beyond the Western front.

Imperial Germany made military and commercial investments in the Ottoman Empire and German archaeologists and historians were active in the Middle East and Central Asia frequently doubling as spies. During the First World War the Germans and Turks attempted to forment an Islamic revolt in British territories, particularly the Indian Empire as well as Afghanistan. Jules Stewart’s The Kaiser’s Mission to Kabul A Secret Expedition to Afghanistan in World War I (I B Tauris £20) considers the secret mission led by von Hentig and von Niedermayer to persuade the Emir of Afghanistan to attack British India. Britain saw this as a credible threat and moved to counter it. One for Rory Stewart.

The cataclysmic nature of the First World War and its impact on the old European order and its consequences is brilliantly addressed by Adam Tooze The Deluge The Great War and the Remaking of Global Order 1916-1931 (Allen Lane £30).

Finally, many of you will have visited the battlefields and cemeteries of the Western Front or plan to do so, maybe this summer or autumn. There are several excellent battlefield guides, but one about to be published written by a school teacher and aimed specifically at school trips is Gareth Hughes Visiting the Somme and Ypres Battlefields Made Easy A Helpful Guide Book for Groups and Individuals (Pen & Sword Military £12.99)

Speaker Bercow has always been a very keen, competitive tennis player and coach. He has written Tennis Maestros The Twenty Greatest Male Tennis Players of All Time (Biteback £20). Perhaps he will write a second volume on the twenty greatest female tennis players of all time?

Did the ancient Romans smile, laugh, tell jokes? According to the magnificent Professor Mary Beard, a national treasure, there was no word for smile, but they laughed and told jokes unburdened by any modern concept of political correctness. None of the double entendre of Frankie Howerd’s slave Lurcio in the wonderful TV series “Up Pompeii!” As Mary Beard shows in Laughter in Ancient Rome On Joking, Tickling and Cracking Up (University of California Press £19.95) Roman humour could be coarse, cruel and lacking in subtlety. It is thought that Enoch Powell, a classicist, was thinking of an old Roman joke when the talkative House of Commons barber asked him how he would like his haircut? “In silence”, was the reply. One for Boris Johnson I think.

Ann Treneman the Times parliamentary sketch writer has written a fascinating if at times macabre book Finding the Plot 100 Graves to Visit Before You Die (The Robson Press £12.99). She accepts it is a personal choice and is open to suggestions regarding omissions. I have suggested she includes the gravestone of Parson James Woodforde the eighteenth century diarist who was rector of Weston Longville in my Norfolk constituency.

Sandra Howard, a personality in her own right and a novelist is wife of the former Conservative leader Michael Howard. Her novels include A Matter of Loyalty, Ex-Wives and Glass House. Now her latest novel Tell the Girl (Simon & Schuster £12.99) must have some autobiographical basis as the main character is a successful career model who returns to the USA to relive weekends mixing with Frank Sinatra, Bob Hope, Marilyn Monroe and JFK and Jackie. Just the antidote to all those books on the First World War.

Keith Simpson MP
PPS to the Foreign Secretary

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LBC 97.3: Iain Dale talks to Margaret Thatcher about the Royal Wedding

Lady Thatcher talks about what she expects from the Royal Wedding.

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Diary

ConHome Diary: My Weird Dream About Bill Cash & Ann Widdecombe

11 Jul 2014 at 14:24

The reshuffle, it seems, is pencilled in for Monday, although if last year is anything to go by that could change at least three times before then. David Cameron is a reluctant reshuffler and hates the experience. He also conducts them very differently to other party leaders. I am reliably informed that the Chief Whip plays very little role in who goes where and it’s all done by Number 10. Well that should give us all confidence then… Not. Actually, I am not against that. Under Margaret Thatcher the whips had far too much influence over junior ministerial appointments and as a consequence when it came to it she didn’t have enough supporters in the junior ranks or indeed Cabinet when she needed them. When I say the reshuffle is conducted in Number 10, that is only true up to a point because in previous reshuffles it is Number 11 where many of the decisions are made. Watch out for the Osborne stamp on this particular reshuffle. I suspect it will be even more obvious than usual.
*
Talking of George Osborne, I am spending much of the day with him today down in the west country where he’s on a regional tour. He will then be coming on my LBC show for an in-depth interview at 5pm. He is one of only two cabinet ministers I have never interviewed – William Hague being the other. I’ve never understood why William Hague never seems to be interested in being heard on Britain’s biggest commercial radio group, when he will appear on Sky News at the drop of a hat. Labour politicians understand that if you appear on LBC, and you say something interesting, you then get clipped into the news bulletins on other Global Radio owned stations like Capital, Heart, Classic FM and Smooth. That’s a potential audience of 23 million and they’re all normal voters. What a shame the Foreign Secretary and his media advisers don’t seem to get that. I’m sure spending hours in the company of Angelina Jolie will attract more voters.
*

I am having some very bizarre dreams at the moment. On Tuesday night I dreamt that Bill Cash had introduced a bill into the House of Commons to make Ann Widdecombe a princess. Make of that what you will.
*
Like anyone else who watched the match, I was astonished by what happened when Germany walloped Brazil. Not by the score but by the pure crassness of the BBC commentator. On two occasions he told us the German supporters were singing ‘Deutschland Uber Alles”. Er, no they weren’t, because it’s banned in Germany as a cursory bit of research would have demonstrated. If you sing it you get arrested, simple as that. What they were singing was the new German national anthem, which is sung to the same tune but is called ‘Eingkeit und Recht und Freiheit” (Unity, Justice & Freedom). It’s the third verse of what is known as the Deutschlandlied. I do love to educate you, dear reader. Bitteschoen.
*

On Tuesday I reach the grand old age of 52. It’s a sobering thought that I’ll probably only ever see four or five more World Cups before I die. I’m cheerful like that.
*
One of the reasons I love doing Sky News paper reviews with Jacqui Smith is because we always have a reet laff. And this Wednesday was no exception. It was a bit different this week as the World Cup semi-final penalty shoot-out was happening while we were on air. So we persuaded them to put one of the studio TVs onto ITV so we could multitask and watch it while we were imparting our words of wisdom on air. I wonder if anyone noticed that we were slightly distracted. Probably not in Jacqui’s case. As she pointed out, she’s a woman so multitasking comes naturally. The biggest laugh of the evening came when the floor manager checked her microphone battery pack. “You do tend to drain a battery,” he said. We both roared, as I imagined Jacqui’s rampant rabbit nodding in agreement. Possibly best if you put that vision out of your mind right now, if you don’t mind.
*

I read that a 17 year old boy in America, who sent his 15 year old girlfriend a picture of his erect penis on his phone, is being accused of making child porn. Of himself. And the police are trying to make him get an erection so they can check the picture was actually of his own penis. The world has gone utterly mad.
*
Alistair Griffin’s got a new album out called FROM NOWHERE. It is pure brilliance. Promise you’ll love it if you download it.
*

I’m writing a book at the moment called THE NHS: THINGS THAT NEED TO BE SAID. I fully expect it to get terrible reviews as it against our national religion to make any criticism of the NHS, no matter how mild, or how justified. I’m already battening down the hatches.

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LBC Book Club: Iain Dale talks to Jack Straw

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Humour/Satire

A Letter to Your Local School

10 Jul 2014 at 18:32

My friend Jonathan Sheppard has composed this rather hilarious letter for you to send to your local school!

Dear (insert name of head teacher),

Today some of your teachers took part in industrial action yet again. This is now the (insert number) time that my child has missed school due to the decision to take industrial action by your staff.

As parents we are told that taking unauthorised absence damages the education of our children, and that you are able to fine us £60.

Given that is the case, this industrial action must also be having a detrimental effect on my child’s eduction. I therefore would like to request £60 in compensation, which will obviously neither cover the day of school my child has missed, nor the inconvenience and last minute childcare costs I have incurred.

I am sure you will agree that if a school feels it reasonable to talk about educational damage due to unauthorised absence, along with the possibility of financial penalties, then parents can also legitimately raise this issue when teachers take industrial action.

I very much look forward to hearing from you once the school is fully open, and hopefully before the six week break the striking teachers will soon be enjoying.

Yours,

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LBC 97.3: Iain Dale interviews Ed Miliband about Mental Health policy

A 90 minute special on mental health policy, featuring a ten minute interview with Ed Miliband and many moving phone calls

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Personal

My Memory of 7/7

7 Jul 2014 at 20:26

I don’t know if you remember where you were on the morning of the 7th July 2005 when you heard the news of the terrorist bombings in London. I was sitting at my desk in the House of Commons (for the uninitiated, I was working for David Davis, the Shadow Home Secretary) and a colleague popped his head round the door to say there was something on the radio about a big bang in a tube station. Shortly afterwards Rachel Sylvester and Alice Thomson arrived to do a feature interview with David. Gradually news started coming in that there were several attacks. I kept interrupting his interview with news. I rang home and rang my parents to reassure them I was OK. I began to get calls from friends.

My work colleague began to get hysterical about her son, who she feared might have been on one of the trains. She rang his school and he had not arrived. As the morning wore on, and she couldn’t make contact with him, even I began to fear the worst. But I had to make a decision. I was trying to coordinate our response and ensure the office ran smoothly, yet my colleague (and very good friend) was becoming hysterical. Did I try to soothe her or did I do my job. I’m slightly ashamed to say I chose the latter and ‘delegated’ the former. Hard bastard, I thought to myself. Her son rang to say he was OK shortly afterwards.

None of us knew what it all meant. The thought ran through my mind that if this was a repeat of 9-11, our office wasn’t exactly the best place to be. It was located almost directly under Big Ben. But you just get on with your job. David Davis was the coolest man in London. If ever I doubted his leadership qualities, they were on full display that day. Alice Thomson and Rachel Sylvester would confirm that.

David then had to respond to Charles Clarke’s statement in the House of Commons. We were glued to the TV. He caught the mood of the House and gave a speech which even his enemies had to admit was striking.

The next day, I was walking along the Embankment to work with the sound of helicopters and Police sirens ringing through the air. I remember thinking to myself: “This is not the London I love.” I felt as if I was walking along a street in an alien city. I admit that a tear rolled down my face. Would life ever be the same?

Well, life did return to normal for most of us. But for the families of the people who died that day, normal would never exist again.

And to those bastards who defaced the 7/7 Memorial last night, you show us once again what evil people there are in our midst. We know that one day there will be another terrorist outrage in our capital city. But the terrorists can never win if we defy them. And defy them we will.

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LBC 97.3: Iain Dale talks to Steve Richards

Steve Richard talks about his one man theatre show, ROCK 'N ROLL POLITICS

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UK Politics

UPDATED SEAT BY SEAT FORECAST: Why the LibDems Will Win Fewer Than 30 Seats At The Next Election

6 Jul 2014 at 18:32

A few months ago I posted a prediction that the LibDems would win 30-35 seats at the next election. I went through each LibDem seat and predicted what would happen to it. Click HERE to read the original predictions. Clearly any such exercise is fraught with difficulty, and I freely admitted that many would disagree with the conclusions. Reading through the comments of that blogpost, the consensus seemed to be that I had been too kind to the LibDems in Scotland but too hard on them in the South West. That was, of course, before the European and local elections, when the LibDems performed far worse than I think even their worst enemy had wished. They came fifth in the popular vote in the European Elections behind the Greens, polling only 6.87% of the popular vote. Six weeks on from that debacle they are still only polling 7-9% in the opinion polls.

Four months ago I predicted that of the 57 seats, 35 would remain LibDem, 14 would fall to the Conservatives and 8 to Labour. But of the 35 LibDem Holds, I reckoned only 13 were dead certs, 9 hot bets, 8 probable and 5 were rated as possible, but by no means definite.

My new prediction is that of the 57 seats, 28 will remain LibDem, 17 would fall to the Conservatives, 11 to Labour and 1 to the SNP.

I remain of the view that Labour will be the beneficiaries of most of the decline in LibDem votes across the country but that the Conservatives might benefit a little in the south and south west. The big unknown factor here is how the size of the UKIP vote might affect existing Conservative vote levels in many of these seats. I have tried not to make these predictions through blue tinted spectacles, but it maybe that I will have underestimated the impact of UKIP, especially bearing in mind their performance in the May elections. I have also assumed that the LibDems will not win a single one of their top 20 target seats. Even if that proves to be wrong, looking through the list it is hard to see more than a handful of even remotely possible gains based on the way things look at the moment.

INVERNESS, NAIRN, BADENOCH & STRATHSPEY
Danny Alexander
Majority: 8,765 over Labour
Prediction: PROBABLE LIBDEM HOLD

LEWES
Norman Baker
Maj: 7,647
Prediction: PROBABLE LIBDEM HOLD
If Labour takes enough votes from the LibDems it could let the Conservative in, and Lewes used to be a safe Tory seat. Baker’s local popularity should see him through but with a much smaller majority.

BERWICK UPON TWEED
Sir Alan Beith (retiring – Julie Pörksen selected)
Maj: 2,690 over the Conservatives
Prediction: PROBABLE CONSERVATIVE GAIN
The Conservative candidate Anne Marie Trevelyan stood in 2010 and if her vote holds up, she only needs Labour to take a small proportion of the LibDem vote. Beith’s incumbency will also disappear.

BURNLEY
Gordon Birtwistle
Maj: 1,818 over Labour
Prediction: LABOUR GAIN
Birtwhistle is a straight talking northerner and speaks out against what he views as wishy washy Liberalism. He’s very popular but it would be a major shock if he held on to the seat he snatched from Labour in 2010.

CARSHALTON & WALLINGTON
Tom Brake
Maj: 5.260 over the Conservatives
Prediction: POSSIBLE CONSERVATIVE GAIN
Somewhat charismatically challenged Brake is nevertheless a very good constituency MP and this could seem him through, but the Labour vote here is bound to recover. However, I’d say this was a 50/50 prediction and could easily go the other way. This would be the sixth time Brake has fought the seat and that counts for a lot.

MID DORSET & NORTH POOLE
Annette Brooke (retiring – Vikki Slade selected)
Maj: 269
Prediction: CONSERVATIVE GAIN
It was a shock this seat didn’t go Tory last time. With Annette Brooke standing down the LibDems will have to perform miracles to keep this seat.

TAUNTON DEANE
Jeremy Browne
Maj: 3,993 over the Conservatives
Prediction: POSSIBLE CONSERVATIVE GAIN – 50/50
Boundary changes last time increased Browne’s majority from just over 500. I don’t know how popular he is locally. Seen as a very good minister it was a shock when he was sacked by Clegg. Might he stand down? I’d say this was a 50/50 call.

GORDON
Sir Malcolm Bruce (retiring – Christine Jardine selected)
Maj: 6,748 over the SNP
Prediction: PROBABLE SNP GAIN

SUTTON & CHEAM
Paul Burstow
Maj: 1,608
Prediction: PROBABLE CONSERVATIVE GAIN
The Labour vote has halved to 7.7% since 1997 and will inevitably rise in 2015. Paul Burstow is standing again and incumbency could play a vital role if he is to retain his seat, but if the Tory vote holds up, he may have a problem.

SOLIHULL
Lorely Burt
Maj: 175
Prediction: CONSERVATIVE GAIN
Lorely Burt did very well to hang onto her seat last time (she won it in 2005 with a majority of 279) and confounded all expectations. The Labour vote has gone down from 25% to 8% and if Labour takes just a thousand votes from the LibDem the Conservatives will win a seat many think they should never have lost.

TWICKENHAM
Vince Cable
Maj: 12,140
Prediction: DEAD CERT LIBDEM HOLD

NORTH EAST FIFE
Sir Menzies Campbell (retiring)
Maj: 9.348
Prediction: LIBDEM HOLD
The Conservatives will be targeting this seat but it’s a remote hope for them. The new LibDem candidate may suffer a dent in their majority but unless Ming Campbell’s personal vote is more than the norm, this seat should stay Liberal Democrat.

ORKNEY & SHETLAND
Alistair Carmichael
Maj: 9,928
Prediction: DEAD CERT LIBDEM HOLD
None of the other parties come close, with the LibDems winning 62% of the vote in 2010. Jo Grimond’s legacy is safe!

SHEFFIELD HALLAM
Nick Clegg
Maj: 15,284
Prediction: DEAD CERT LIBDEM HOLD
This used to be a Tory seat, but it would take a political earthquake for them to take it off Nick Clegg. Interestingly the Labour vote has started to rise, but not enough to cause the LibDems to panic.

EDINBURGH WEST
Michael Crockart
Maj: 3,803
Prediction: PROBABLE LIBDEM HOLD
This seat went LibDem in 1997 and although the LibDem majority plummeted by 10,000 last time it is difficult to see them losing. Prior to 1997 it was a Tory seat but last time Labour beat the Tories into second place. A Labour victory is not impossible to imagine, but still rather unlikely.

KINGSTON & SURBITON
Edward Davey
Maj: 7,560
Prediction: LIBDEM HOLD
Ed Davey won this seat in 1997 with a wafer thin majority of 56, which rose to more than 15,000 in 2001. But since then the Conservative vote has been on the rise. Davey has only managed to win with such handsome majorities because he has squeezed the Labour vote from 23% down to 9%. If that trend reverses, the Conservatives could squeak it, but it’s highly unlikely.

WESTMORLAND & LONSDALE
Tim Farron
Maj: 12,264
Prediction: DEAD CERT LIBDEM HOLD
Tim Farron has 60% of the vote and while the Conservatives held this seat as recently as 2001, they have zero chance of winning it back in 2015. Why? Because it’s a two horse race. In 1997 the Labour vote was more than 20%. In 2010 it was 2%.

HORNSEY & WOOD GREEN
Lynne Featherstone
Maj: 6,875
Prediction: POSSIBLE LABOUR GAIN
Since 1997 Lynne Featherstone has built up the LibDem vote from 5,000 to 25,000 so as a constituency campaigner she is hard to beat. Meanwhile the Labour vote has declined from 31,000 to 18,000. The Conservatives have gone down to 21,000 to 9,000. This is a difficult one to call, but I now think Labour are edging ahead.

BATH
Don Foster (retiring)
Maj: 11,883
Prediction: LIBDEM HOLD
The Conservatives have been desperate to win this seat back since Chris Patten lost it in 1992, but it’s extremely unlikely to revert to the fold despite the fact that Don Foster is standing down.

ST IVES
Andrew George
Maj: 1,719
Prediction: POSSIBLE CON GAIN
The Tories got a 10.39% swing last time and took a huge chuck out of Andrew George’s 11,000 majority. This time George will be hoping UKIP’s vote reduces Tory potency. His incumbency and local popularity could see Andrew George home, but four months on from my last prediction, I now think the Tories may make it.

ST AUSTELL & NEWQUAY
Stephen Gilbert
Maj: 1,312
Prediction: POSSIBLE CONSERVATIVE GAIN
This seat could go either way. Labour are nowhere with only 7% of the vote. If UKIP does well in the South West, the LibDems win here, if they don’t, they won’t.

CHELTENHAM
Martin Horwood
Maj: 4.920
Prediction: PROBABLE LIBDEM HOLD
A Liberal Democrat seat since 1992, this is one which the Conservatives had expected to take back in both 2005 and 2010, but it wasn’t to be. The Labour vote has been squeezed to just 5%. Martin Horwood is extremely popular and will have built up a high personal vote. On a catastrophic night for the LibDems it’s easy to see Cheltenham falling, but not otherwise.

PORTSMOUTH SOUTH
Mike Hancock (deselected)
Maj: 5.200
Prediction: POSSIBLE CONSERVATIVE GAIN
This seat has never had a huge LibDem majority since it was won by Mike Hancock in 1997. It’s always ranged between three and six thousand. It’s difficult to assess the impact of the groping scandal, but on top of their national woes, it could be that the Tories win back what was once for them a safe seat. Hancock has failed to squeeze the Labour vote as much as some of his colleagues, and not so long ago they managed a healthy 25%. If they return to those levels the Tories will win.

NORTH DEVON
Nick Harvey
Maj: 5,821
Prediction: PROBABLE LIBDEM HOLD
Ever since this seat was wrested back from the Conservatives in 1992 pundits have predicted it would return to the Tories, but astute constituency campaigning by Nick Harvey has prevented this from happening. I don’t see this changing. This seat has a strong UKIP vote which inevitable depresses that of the Conservatives.

SOMERTON & FROME
David Heath (retiring)
Maj: 1,817
PREDICTION: PROBABLE CONSERVATIVE GAIN
LibDem HQ must have bee tearing their hair out when David Heath announced his retirement as he stood the best prospect of retaining this seat. His current majority is the larges he has ever enjoyed, but that is largely because at the last election the UKIP vote doubled to nearly 2,000. If they do the same in 2015 they could deny the Conservatives a gain they thought they had in the bag last time.

BIRMINGHAM YARDLEY
John Hemming
Maj: 3,002
Prediction: PROBABLE LABOUR GAIN
Hemming is a maverick and I wouldn’t bet against him pulling off a surprise, but if Labour is to form a government it’s this kind of seat they need to take back.

CHIPPENHAM
Duncan Hames
Maj: 2,470
Prediction: POSSIBLE CONSERVATIVE GAIN
Although is majority isn’t big, Duncan Hames has dug himself in since winning the seat in 2010 and will be difficult to shift. But the Tory candidate Michelle Donelan is a good campaigner. Yet again, her success depends on warding off UKIP and encouraging LibDems to vote Labour.

BERMONDSEY & OLD SOUTHWARK
Simon Hughes
Maj: 8,530
Prediction: PROBABLE LIBDEM HOLD
I had thought this would be a dead cert hold for Simon Hughes but increasingly I am wondering if I am right. Labour seem very confident they can take this.

EASTLEIGH
Mike Thornton
Maj: 1,771
Prediction: POSSIBLE CONSERVATIVE GAIN
The Conservatives thought they would win this seat back at each of the last two general elections, but each time Chris Huhne pulled through. At the by-election they came third, with UKIP almost pipping the rather monochrome Mike Thornton. It’s highly unlikely UKIP’s vote will hold up so the outcome of this seat may depend on where UKIP’s voters put their cross. If enough of them return to the Conservative fold, it could be enough to see the Conservative home.

CHEADLE
Mark Hunter
Maj: 3,272
Prediction: PROBABLE LIBDEM HOLD
Apart from a narrow majority in 1997 of 33, the LibDems have had a majority of three or four thousand in this seat ever since. As long as the slightly resurgent Labour vote doesn’t gain too much traction, I think Mark Hunter will be safe.

CAMBRIDGE
Julian Huppert
Maj: 6,792
Prediction: PROBABLE LABOUR GAIN
If you look at the size of the LibDem majority here, Julian Huppert ought to be considered very safe, but this is a seat which swings with the wind, and if the wind is blowing towards Labour you can see it returning to them. It obviously has a high student vote and this may determine the outcome. However Huppert has been a strong performer both locally in Parliament and if anyone can hold this seat for the LibDems, he can. But bearing in mind the LibDems’ calamitous results in May I’ve now changed my mind and think Labour will win here.

ROSS, SKYE AND LOCHABER
Charles Kennedy
Maj: 13,070
Prediction: DEAD CERT LIBDEM HOLD
Out on his own, and despite an invisible presence in this Parliament, there would need to be a miracle to shift Charles Kennedy.

NORTH NORFOLK
Norman Lamb
Maj: 11,626
Prediction: DEAD CERT LIBDEM HOLD
Lamb’s majority was even bigger than the one he had over me in 2005. Although I think it will reduce in 2010 due to the crumbling LibDem local organisation and the resurgent North Norfolk Labour Party, he will still win handsomely.

YEOVIL
David Laws
Maj: 13,036
Prediction: DEAD CERT LIBDEM HOLD

MANCHESTER WITHINGTON
John Leech
Maj: 1,894
Prediction: LABOUR GAIN
Although John leech trebled his majority last time, I fear the bell tolls for him unless UKIP can take a lot of votes from Labour.

EASTBOURNE
Stephen Lloyd
Maj: 3.435
Prediction: PROBABLE CONSERVATIVE GAIN
Won in 2010 from Nigel Waterson, Stephen Lloyd may hang on, but I’d expect the Labour vote to at least double at the expense of the LibDems, so yet again, a lot depends on how many votes the Tories lose to UKIP.

BERWICKSHIRE, ROXBURGH & SELKIRK
Michael Moore
Maj: 5,675
PREDICTION: LIBDEM HOLD
David Steel’s old seat – never been 100% safe, but it would be a major shock for the Conservatives to take this seat.

LEEDS NORTH WEST
Greg Mulholland
Maj: 9.103
Prediction: DEAD CERT LIBDEM HOLD
A Labour seat as recently as 2005, Labour has now slipped to third place. With a classic split opposition situation it would be a brave man who would vote against a third term for Greg Mulholland.

WELLS
Tessa Munt
Maj: 800
Prediction: PROBABLY CONSERVATIVE GAIN
The former seat of David Heathcoat-Amory Tessa Munt won Wells in 2010. The Tories will make every effort to regain it and will be devastated if they don’t pull it off.

SOUTHPORT
John Pugh
Maj: 6,024
Prediction: LIBDEM HOLD
It’s difficult to see this as anything other than a LibDem win.

ARGYLL & BUTE
Alan Reid
Maj: 3,431
Prediction: POSSIBLE LIBDEM HOLD
A four way marginal, this could go to any of the main parties. If the LibDems lose my guess is that it would go to Labour, even though they were in third place in 2010.

NORTH CORNWALL
Dan Rogerson
Maj: 2,981
Prediction: PROBABLE CONSERVATIVE GAIN
A seat where the LibDem majority has been on the slide in every election since 1997’s highpoint of more than 13,000. If UKIP hadn’t existed, the Conservatives would have won this seat in 2010. So the key question is whether they will eat further into the Conservative vote in 2015. If so, the LibDems will hang on. Otherwise this is a pretty safe bet for the Tories.

COLCHESTER
Sir Bob Russell
Maj: 6,982
Prediction: LIBDEM HOLD
Difficult to see anything other than another home run for Sir Bob!

TORBAY
Adrian Sanders
Maj: 4,078
Prediction: POSSIBLE LIBDEM HOLD
Regarded as a surefire Tory gain in 2010 it didn’t happen, and in all honesty Adrian Sanders has built up a string personal vote which may carry him through once again.

WEST ABERDEENSHIRE & KINCARDINE
Sir Robert Smith
Maj: 3.684
Prediction: POSSIBLE CONSERVATIVE GAIN
The LibDem majority was halved last time, and it’s very possible to see how rises in the Labour and SNP votes could see this seat return to the Conservative fold.

HAZEL GROVE
Andrew Stunell (retiring – Lisa Smart selected)
Maj: 6,371
Prediction: PROBABLE LIBDEM HOLD
The LibDem majority has fallen in every election since 1997 but the Tories haven’t been able to capitalise. And I don’t see them bucking the trend in 2015.

REDCAR
Ian Swales
Maj: 5,214
Prediction: LABOUR GAIN
This was a very surprise result last time and was in large part to massive job losses on Teesside. On that basis the seat may return to its natural fold.

EAST DUNBARTONSHIRE
Jo Swinson
Maj: 2,184
Prediction: LABOUR GAIN
Jo Swinson is popular but all the political portents are against her. She will be a major loss to the LibDems.

BRENT CENTRAL
Sarah Teather (retiring)
Maj: 1,345
Prediction: DEAD CERT LABOUR GAIN
If the LibDems retain this seat it will be miracle of all miracles.

CAITHNESS, SUTHERLAND & EASTER ROSS
John Thurso
Maj: 4,828
Prediction: LIBDEM HOLD
A small electorate, Thurso should hold the seat he won in 2001.

BRADFORD EAST
David Ward
Maj: 365
Prediction: DEAD CERT LABOUR GAIN
One of the nastier LibDem MPs, few will shed tears at his demise.

THORNBURY & YATE
Steve Webb
Maj: 7,116
Prediction: DEAD CERT LIBDEM HOLD

NORWICH SOUTH
Simon Wright
Maj: 310
Prediction: DEAD CERT LABOUR GAIN
Student fees will do for Simon Wright due to the large university vote. Of all the seats the LibDems are slated to lose, this is the deadest certs of dead certs.

CEREDIGION
Mark Williams
Maj: 8,324
Prediction: DEAD CERT LIBDEM HOLD

BRECON & RADNORSHIRE
Roger Williams
Maj: 3,747
Prediction: POSSIBLE CON GAIN
A Conservative gain here is possible but not definite. One of the tightest results in 2015, I’d think.

BRISTOL WEST
Stephen Williams
Maj: 11.336
Prediction: DEAD CERT LIBDEM HOLD

CARDIFF CENTRAL
Jenny Willott
Maj: 4,576
Prediction: PROBABLE LABOUR GAIN
Labour have their sights in this one. Assuming no LibDem poll bounce, I now think they will take this.

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Video: Iain & Derek Draper on Question Time Extra (Part 1)

BBC News 24, October 12 2007

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Diary

ConHome Diary: Is The Telegraph Stark Staring Bonkers?

4 Jul 2014 at 16:10

My company, Biteback Publishing, is five years old this week. Happy birthday to us. For any small publisher to make it to five years is a minor miracle in today’s publishing environment, especially when you have companies like Amazon apparently about to tell us that we’re not allowed to sell books on our own website at a cheaper price than them. It’s only now that I realise what Ed Miliband meant by ‘predatory capitalism’. To be honest they can go fuck themselves. It’s about time the publishing industry grew some giant cojones and told Amazon just where they can stick their threats. Don’t get me wrong, in many ways they are brilliant. Their reliability and service are second to none from a customer’s viewpoint. They already get a 60% discount from us on our books. What more do they want? Blood?
*
The selection for Thanet South is underway with the final three candidates going through the trials and tribulations of the process this weekend. I know two of the three candidates so I won’t say who I think will win, but if I were on the selection committee I would cast my vote using one criteria: which of them is best placed to hold off the seemingly inevitable challenge from Nigel Farage? This seat doesn’t need a shrinking violet, it needs someone who will go out there and take the fight to Farage, rather than lay back and think of England.
*

So farewell, then, Graeme Archer, the latest writer to be let go by the Telegraph. Are they stark raving bonkers? He’s one of the most talented right of centre writers around and yet they now consider him surplus to requirements. Madness. Almost as mad as ditching James Kirkup’s excellent evening email and turning Ben Brogan’s (also late of that parish) into something totally unreadable. Why would you do that if your strategy was now giving primary importance to digital products? What on earth is going on at the Telegraph? Since Tony Gallagher and Ben Brogan left the building the paper has gone inexorably downhill to the point where I worry about its future. It is a shadow of its former self.
*
On Tuesday I got very excited during my radio show when my producer said in my ear “We’ve got Rahman coming on”. Ever since the May elections I have been trying to get to interview Tower Hamlets mayor Lutfur Rahman but he’s only willing to appear with his mate Ken Livingstone on LBC. He gives me a wide berth because he is afraid to answer the kind of direct questions he knows I would put to him. My excitement abated somewhat when I was told it wasn’t Lutfur but his deputy Olidaur Rahman who would be coming on to explain how his administration had been totally vindicated by the Electoral Commission. Except of course it hadn’t. I think after the interview he rather regretted coming on at all, as I gave him a bit of a going over. You can listen to it here.

Rahman and his cronies need to understand that I and others won’t let this rest until someone gets to the bottom of what went on at this crooked election in Tower Hamlets. The Electoral Commission are hopeless and their report didn’t even go into what happened prior to the count, so let’s hope the Police inquiries yield something, because the truth is that if nothing is done now, ordinary people in Tower Hamlets might as well not bother voting at the general election because their election will be stolen from them yet again.
The Tower Hamlets Returning Officer, John Williams, must have the hide of a rhino. Otherwise he’d have resigned in disgrace by now. His incompetence seems to know no bounds. If I had been criticised by the Electoral Commission in the way he has, I’d consider my position untenable.
*
So, still no reshuffle then…
*

Can it be long before Labour’s policy chief Jon Cruddas falls on his sword? He describes himself as a “romantic” and it’s clear he’s right. He is psychologically ill-fitted to holding any position of responsibility whatsoever, a fact he recognised himself when he turned down several posts in the Brown government. His outburst at the Compass conference last week in which he complained about the “dead hand” within his party strangling any innovative policy idea at birth was widely interpreted as an attack on Ed Miliband. Mary Riddell thinks he meant Labour’s electoral machine, rather than her hero, Mr Miliband, but then she would, wouldn’t she? From what I hear Cruddas would dearly love to return to the backbenches and join Frank Field in thinking the unthinkable. But he knows the embarrassment that this would heap on both the Labour leadership and himself.
*
Britain’s Andy Murray, eh? Has he gone back to being Scottish now?
*

So Labour are demanding the Conservatives release details of the guests at their summer ball at the Hurlingham Club. Apparently we all have a right to know who is whispering sweet nothings in the prime Minister’s ear. Funny that. I don’t remember Lord Levy releasing the guest list at all his fundraising events for Tony Blair. Of course they’ll never admit this but all politicians hate and loathe these money raising events. It’s pure purgatory having to make polite conversation with people they have little in common with and in many cases regard with utter contempt. But needs must. All politicians would secretly love to have state funding of political parties because they could tell their donors where to go. And they’d form a queue to do so, too.
*
So after conquering Baghdad, the new leader of the Caliphate, Mr Baghdadi, has his sights set on Rome. It seems he wants to party like its 999. AD, that is. Perhaps he’ll stop off in Constantinople on the way…
*

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LBC Book Club: Iain talks to Geoffrey Robertson QC

Geoffrey Robertson talks about his new book on Stephen Ward.

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