Over the next three weeks I will be trying to predict the results of the European Elections which take place in the UK on May 22, with the results being announced late in the evening of Sunday 25 May. I will be hosting a European Elections Special Programme on LBC from 9pm that evening. Let’s now turn to the South West of England, where 6 seats are up for grabs. The constituency consists of the South West England region of the United Kingdom, comprising the ceremonial counties of Bristol, Cornwall, Devon, Dorset, Gloucestershire, Somerset and Wiltshire. It also includes the British Overseas Territory of Gibraltar.

2009

Lab 0
Con 3
UKIP 2
LibDem 1

In 2004 the result was identical except Labour also had a seat as the constituency had seven members then. In 1999, the Tories had 4 seats with 1 seat each for Labour, the LibDems and UKIP.

My prediction for this year is this…

2014

LibDem 1
Con 2
UKIP 3

Last time Labour’s Glyn Ford lost his seat and the Labour vote went down to 7%. It halved. They will battle with the LibDems for the sixth seat this time. The LibDems were on 17.5% in 2009, and although I expect that vote share to reduce, the South West has traditionally been a strong region for them. In the end, they may well pull through. Having said that, we shouldn’t rule out the Greens, who voted nearly 10% last time. The Tories will lose a seat (meaning James Cracknell will fail to be elected) and this will almost certainly go to boost UKIP’s haul to three. If that happens Nigel Farage’s press officer Gawain Towler, will get the final UKIP seat.

Predicted Winning Candidates

Conservative Party – Ashley Fox, Julie Girling
UKIP – Earl of Dartmouth, Julia Reid, Gawain Towler
LibDems – Graham Watson

OTHER REGIONAL PREDICTIONS

East Anglia
South East
London