This is the sixth in a series of blogposts (scroll down for the others) which will seek to predict the outcome of every seat in the run-up to the next general election. The notion of a universal swing in May 2015 can be totally discounted. Each seat has to be treated on its merits. I’m starting off by trying to analyse the counties I know best, but eventually will turn to ones I know very little about at all. Feel free to add your comments and tell me where you think I have got things wrong. I will return to update each county analysis when and if I get new information.

Seats: 6
Current Political Makeup: Con 4, Lab 2
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 3, Lab 3

1. Bedford

2010 Result:
Conservative: 17546 (38.9%)
Labour: 16193 (35.9%)
Lib Dem: 8957 (19.9%)
BNP: 757 (1.7%)
Green: 393 (0.9%)
UKIP: 1136 (2.5%)
Independent: 120 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 1353 (3%)

Sitting MP: Richard Fuller (Con)
Prediction: Narrow Labour gain

This seat was Labour during the Blair & Brown years and only narrowly went Tory last time. With a substantial LibDem vote to eat into, it’s difficult to see Labour failing to win this seat. If they do fail, it spells big trouble for Ed Miliband.

2. Luton North

2010 Result:
Conservative: 13672 (31.8%)
Labour: 21192 (49.3%)
Lib Dem: 4784 (11.1%)
BNP: 1316 (3.1%)
Green: 490 (1.1%)
UKIP: 1564 (3.6%)
MAJORITY: 7520 (17.5%)

Sitting MP: Kelvin Hopkins (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

This used to be a safe Tory seat until boundary changes made it a safe Labour seat. Kelvin Hopkins’ majority should increase as he takes a few thousand votes from the LibDems.

3. Luton South

2010 Result:
Conservative: 12396 (29.4%)
Labour: 14725 (34.9%)
Lib Dem: 9567 (22.7%)
BNP: 1299 (3.1%)
Green: 366 (0.9%)
UKIP: 975 (2.3%)
Independent: 1872 (4.4%)
Others: 1016 (2.4%)
MAJORITY: 2329 (5.5%)

Sitting MP: Gavin Shuker (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Esther Rantzen stood here last time and there are around 4,000 votes from her and other independents going begging. The Tories might think they are in with a chance of taking this, but the demographics of the seat count against them. Shuker has bedded himself in and it’s not likely he’ll be shifted.

4. Mid Bedfordshire

2010 Result:
Conservative: 28815 (52.5%)
Labour: 8108 (14.8%)
Lib Dem: 13663 (24.9%)
Green: 773 (1.4%)
UKIP: 2826 (5.1%)
English Dem: 712 (1.3%)
MAJORITY: 15152 (27.6%)

Sitting MP: Nadine Dorries (Con)
Prediction: Increased Conservative majority

A split opposition vote should mean a bigger majority for Nadine.

5. North East Bedfordshire

2010 Result:
Conservative: 30989 (55.8%)
Labour: 8957 (16.1%)
Lib Dem: 12047 (21.7%)
BNP: 1265 (2.3%)
UKIP: 2294 (4.1%)
MAJORITY: 18942 (34.1%)

Sitting MP: Alistair Burt (Con)
Prediction: Increased Conservative majority

Ditto Nadine.

6. South West Bedfordshire

2010 Result:
Conservative: 26815 (52.8%)
Labour: 9948 (19.6%)
Lib Dem: 10166 (20%)
BNP: 1703 (3.4%)
UKIP: 2142 (4.2%)
MAJORITY: 16649 (32.8%)

Sitting MP: Andrew Selous (Con)
Prediction: Definite Conservative hold

Safe seat. End of.

To see the complete list of predictions click HERE