This is the eleventh in a series of blogposts (scroll to the bottom of the article for the others) which will seek to predict the outcome of every seat in the run-up to the next general election. The notion of a universal swing in May 2015 can be totally discounted. Each seat has to be treated on its merits. I’m starting off by trying to analyse the counties I know best, but eventually will turn to ones I know very little about at all. Feel free to add your comments and tell me where you think I have got things wrong. I will return to update each county analysis when and if I get new information.

Seats: 8
Current Political Makeup: Con 8
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 8

1. Arundel & South Downs

2010 Result:
Conservative: 32333 (57.8%)
Labour: 4835 (8.6%)
Lib Dem: 15642 (27.9%)
UKIP: 3172 (5.7%)
MAJORITY: 16691 (29.8%)

Sitting MP: Nick Herbert (Con)
Prediction: Increased Conservative majority

Nick Herbert already has a huge majority. It’s likely to get bigger.

2. Bognor Regis & Littlehampton

2010 Result:
Conservative: 24087 (51.4%)
Labour: 6580 (14%)
Lib Dem: 11024 (23.5%)
BNP: 1890 (4%)
UKIP: 3036 (6.5%)
Independent: 235 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 13063 (27.9%)

Sitting MP: Nick Gibb (Con)
Prediction: Definite Conservative hold

Safe seat. Another increased Tory majority is likely here.

3. Chichester

2010 Result:
Conservative: 31427 (55.3%)
Labour: 5937 (10.5%)
Lib Dem: 15550 (27.4%)
UKIP: 3873 (6.8%)
MAJORITY: 15877 (28%)

Sitting MP: Andrew Tyrie (Con)
Prediction: Increased Conservative majority

Yet another increased Tory majority is likely here.

4. Crawley

2010 Result:
Conservative: 21264 (44.8%)
Labour: 15336 (32.3%)
Lib Dem: 6844 (14.4%)
BNP: 1672 (3.5%)
Green: 598 (1.3%)
UKIP: 1382 (2.9%)
Independent: 143 (0.3%)
Others: 265 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 5928 (12.5%)

Sitting MP: Henry Smith (Con)
Prediction: Narrow Conservative hold

Genuinely difficult to call. Labour throughout the Blair years, Crawley moved decisively towards the Tories in 2010, although the swing here wasn’t as large as the North Kent seats.

5. East Worthing & Shoreham

Conservative: 23458 (48.5%)
Labour: 8087 (16.7%)
Lib Dem: 12353 (25.5%)
Green: 1126 (2.3%)
UKIP: 2984 (6.2%)
English Dem: 389 (0.8%)
MAJORITY: 11105 (22.9%)

Sitting MP: Tim Loughton (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Tim Loughton is safe as houses here.

6. Horsham

2010 Result:
Conservative: 29447 (52.7%)
Labour: 4189 (7.5%)
Lib Dem: 17987 (32.2%)
Green: 570 (1%)
UKIP: 2839 (5.1%)
Christian: 469 (0.8%)
Independent: 87 (0.2%)
Others: 253 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 11460 (20.5%)

Sitting MP: Francis Maude (Con)
Prediction: Increased Conservative majority

Usual story. Collapsing LibDem vote to Labour leads to bigger Tory majority.

7. Mid Sussex

2010 Result:
Conservative: 29447 (52.7%)
Labour: 4189 (7.5%)
Lib Dem: 17987 (32.2%)
Green: 570 (1%)
UKIP: 2839 (5.1%)
Christian: 469 (0.8%)
Independent: 87 (0.2%)
Others: 253 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 11460 (20.5%)

Sitting MP: Sir Nicholas Soames (Con)
Prediction: Increased Conservative majority

Ditto above.

8. Worthing West

2010 Result:
Conservative: 25416 (51.7%)
Labour: 5800 (11.8%)
Lib Dem: 13687 (27.9%)
Green: 996 (2%)
UKIP: 2924 (6%)
Christian: 300 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 11729 (23.9%)

Sitting MP: Sir Peter Bottomley (Con)
Prediction: Definite Conservative hold

Coming next: Buckinghamshire

To see the complete list of predictions click HERE