This is the sixteenth in a series of blogposts (scroll to the bottom of the article for the others) which will seek to predict the outcome of every seat in the run-up to the next general election. The notion of a universal swing in May 2015 can be totally discounted. Each seat has to be treated on its merits. Feel free to add your comments and tell me where you think I have got things wrong. I will return to update each county analysis when and if I get new information.
Seats: 8
Current Political Makeup: Con 7, LibDem 1
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 8
1. Bournemouth East
2010 Result:
Conservative: 21320 (48.4%)
Labour: 5836 (13.3%)
Lib Dem: 13592 (30.9%)
UKIP: 3027 (6.9%)
Independent: 249 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 7728 (17.6%)
Sitting MP: Tobias Ellwood (Con)
Prediction: Increased Conservative majority
Safe seat.
2. Bournemouth West
2010 Result:
Conservative: 18808 (45.1%)
Labour: 6171 (14.8%)
Lib Dem: 13225 (31.7%)
UKIP: 2999 (7.2%)
Independent: 456 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 5583 (13.4%)
Sitting MP: Conor Burns (Con)
Prediction: Increased Conservative majority
The LibDem vote may be stronger here than elsewhere but I expect Conor Burns to increase his majority.
3. Christchurch
2010 Result:
Conservative: 27888 (56.4%)
Labour: 4849 (9.8%)
Lib Dem: 12478 (25.3%)
UKIP: 4201 (8.5%)
MAJORITY: 15410 (31.2%)
Sitting MP: Christopher Chope (Con)
Prediction: Increased Conservative majority
Safe seat. Lots of LibDem votes to be attacked by both Conservative and Labour here. Hence an increased majority.
4. Mid Dorset & North Poole
2010 Result:
Conservative: 20831 (44.5%)
Labour: 2748 (5.9%)
Lib Dem: 21100 (45.1%)
UKIP: 2109 (4.5%)
MAJORITY: 269 (0.6%)
Sitting MP: Annette Brooke (LibDem)
Prediction: Conservative gain
Any chance the LibDems had of retaining this seat came with the news that Annette Brooke is retiring. It would take a minor miracle for them to retain it.
5. North Dorset
2010 Result:
Conservative: 27640 (51.1%)
Labour: 2910 (5.4%)
Lib Dem: 20015 (37%)
Green: 546 (1%)
UKIP: 2812 (5.2%)
Others: 218 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 7625 (14.1%)
Sitting MP: Robert Walter (Con)
Prediction: Increased Conservative
Robert Walter is retiring (he is one of the most Europhile of Conservative MPs), but the Tory majority is likely to increase as the LibDem vote crumbles to other parties.
6. Poole
2010 Result:
Conservative: 22532 (47.5%)
Labour: 6041 (12.7%)
Lib Dem: 14991 (31.6%)
BNP: 1188 (2.5%)
UKIP: 2507 (5.3%)
Independent: 177 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 7541 (15.9%)
Sitting MP: Robert Syms (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold
Safe seat.Possible increased majority for Robert Syms.
7. South Dorset
2010 Result:
Conservative: 22667 (45.1%)
Labour: 15224 (30.3%)
Lib Dem: 9557 (19%)
Green: 595 (1.2%)
UKIP: 2034 (4%)
Others: 233 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 7443 (14.8%)
Sitting MP: Richard Drax (Con)
Prediction: Narrow Conservative hold
This is an unpredictable seat. It had been a Tory seat in the 1980s and 90s but went Labour in 2001. Drax won it back in 2010 with a healthy majority. Labour has some hope of winning here and may well do so if UKIP eat into the Tory vote and not their own, and the LibDem vote goes to Labour. But there are a lot of ‘ifs’ there. Drax was a form opponent of gay marriage, saying it would undermine the sanctity of marriage. Drax is a great fan of marriages. He has had three of them.
8. West Dorset
2010 Result:
Conservative: 27287 (47.6%)
Labour: 3815 (6.7%)
Lib Dem: 23364 (40.7%)
Green: 675 (1.2%)
UKIP: 2196 (3.8%)
MAJORITY: 3923 (6.8%)
Sitting MP: Oliver Letwin (Con)
Prediction: Increased Conservative majority
The LibDems have had this seat on their hit list for the last four elections but they have never been able to break through. Letwin got his biggest majority since 1992 in 2010 and the only conceivable result in 2015 is an increased Tory majority.
If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE
