This is the twenty-fifth in a series of blogposts (scroll to the bottom of the article for the others) which will seek to predict the outcome of every seat in the run-up to the next general election. The notion of a universal swing in May 2015 can be totally discounted. Each seat has to be treated on its merits. Feel free to add your comments and tell me where you think I have got things wrong. I will return to update each county analysis when and if I get new information.

Derbyshire

Seats: 11
Current Political Makeup: Con 6, Lab 5
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 4, Lab 7

1. Amber Valley

2010 Result:
Conservative: 17746 (38.6%)
Labour: 17210 (37.4%)
Lib Dem: 6636 (14.4%)
BNP: 3195 (7%)
UKIP: 906 (2%)
Others: 265 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 536 (1.2%)

Sitting MP: Nigel Mills (Con)
Prediction: Labour gain

Surefire Labour gain. Nigel Mills ‘Candy Crish’ incident won’t have helped him.

2. Bolsover

2010 Result:
Conservative: 10812 (24.6%)
Labour: 21994 (50%)
Lib Dem: 6821 (15.5%)
BNP: 2640 (6%)
UKIP: 1721 (3.9%)
MAJORITY: 11182 (25.4%)

Sitting MP: Dennis Skinner (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

3. Chesterfield

2010 Result:
Conservative: 7214 (15.7%)
Labour: 17891 (39%)
Lib Dem: 17342 (37.8%)
Green: 600 (1.3%)
UKIP: 1432 (3.1%)
English Dem: 1213 (2.6%)
Independent: 147 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 549 (1.2%)

Sitting MP: Toby Perkins (Lab)
Prediction: Increased Labour majority

One of only three Labour gains at the last election (from the LibDems, in the case of Chesterfield), Toby Perkins will have a very decent majority in May 2015.

4. Derby North

2010 Result:
Conservative: 14283 (31.7%)
Labour: 14896 (33%)
Lib Dem: 12638 (28%)
BNP: 2000 (4.4%)
UKIP: 829 (1.8%)
Independent: 264 (0.6%)
Others: 170 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 613 (1.4%)

Sitting MP: Chris Williamson (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

A genuine three way marginal. At least, it was at the last election. Expect Chris Williamson to capitalise on LibDem woes.

5. Derby South

2010 Result:
Conservative: 11729 (28.5%)
Labour: 17851 (43.3%)
Lib Dem: 8430 (20.5%)
UKIP: 1821 (4.4%)
Independent: 1357 (3.3%)
MAJORITY: 6122 (14.9%)

Sitting MP: Margaret Beckett (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe Labour seat.

6. Derbyshire Dales

2010 Result:
Conservative: 24378 (52.1%)
Labour: 9061 (19.4%)
Lib Dem: 10512 (22.5%)
Green: 772 (1.7%)
UKIP: 1779 (3.8%)
Others: 278 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 13866 (29.6%)

Sitting MP: Patrick McLoughlin (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Safe seat.

7. Erewash

2010 Result:
Conservative: 18805 (39.5%)
Labour: 16304 (34.2%)
Lib Dem: 8343 (17.5%)
BNP: 2337 (4.9%)
Green: 534 (1.1%)
UKIP: 855 (1.8%)
Independent: 464 (1%)
MAJORITY: 2501 (5.2%)

Sitting MP: Jessica Lee (Con)
Prediction: Labour gain

Jessica Lee is standing down, whih will certainly hurt the Tories’ chances of retaining this seat. It would be astonishing if Labour didn’t win here in May.

8. High Peak

2010 Result:
Conservative: 20587 (40.9%)
Labour: 15910 (31.6%)
Lib Dem: 10993 (21.8%)
Green: 922 (1.8%)
UKIP: 1690 (3.4%)
Independent: 161 (0.3%)
Others: 74 (0.1%)
MAJORITY: 4677 (9.3%)

Sitting MP: Andrew Bingham (Con)
Prediction: Narrow Conservative hold

Could go either way, but the majority here is big enough to give Andrew Bignham hope of retaining the seat he won in 2010. However, the problem is that the LibDems have a 22% vote share here. If this reduces by half, it’s likely Labour could snatch the seat. I’m giving Bingham the benefit of a very severe doubt.

9. Mid Derbyshire

2010 Result:
Conservative: 22877 (48.3%)
Labour: 11585 (24.5%)
Lib Dem: 9711 (20.5%)
BNP: 1698 (3.6%)
UKIP: 1252 (2.6%)
Others: 219 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 11292 (23.9%)

Sitting MP: Pauline Latham (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Safe seat.

10. North East Derbyshire

2010 Result:
Conservative: 15503 (33%)
Labour: 17948 (38.2%)
Lib Dem: 10947 (23.3%)
UKIP: 2636 (5.6%)
MAJORITY: 2445 (5.2%)

Sitting MP: Natascha Engel (Lab)
Prediction: Increased Labour majority

11. South Derbyshire

2010 Result:
Conservative: 22935 (45.5%)
Labour: 15807 (31.4%)
Lib Dem: 8012 (15.9%)
BNP: 2193 (4.3%)
UKIP: 1206 (2.4%)
Others: 266 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 7128 (14.1%)

Sitting MP: Heather Wheeler (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Likely to be a smaller majority, but Heather Wheeler looks safe here.

Coming next: Northamptonshire

To all see previous predictions. click HERE

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