This is the fortieth in a series of blogposts (scroll to the bottom of the article for the others) which will seek to predict the outcome of every seat in the run-up to the next general election. The notion of a universal swing in May 2015 can be totally discounted. Each seat has to be treated on its merits. Feel free to add your comments and tell me where you think I have got things wrong. I will return to update each county analysis when and if I get new information.
West Glamorgan
Seats: 5
Current Political Makeup: Lab 5
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Lab 5
1. Aberavon
2010 Result:
Conservative: 4411 (14.2%)
Labour: 16073 (51.9%)
Lib Dem: 5034 (16.3%)
Plaid Cymru: 2198 (7.1%)
BNP: 1276 (4.1%)
UKIP: 489 (1.6%)
Independent: 919 (3%)
Others: 558 (1.8%)
MAJORITY: 11039 (35.7%)
Sitting MP: Hywel Francis (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Safe seat.
2. Gower
2010 Result:
Conservative: 13333 (32%)
Labour: 16016 (38.4%)
Lib Dem: 7947 (19.1%)
Plaid Cymru: 2760 (6.6%)
BNP: 963 (2.3%)
UKIP: 652 (1.6%)
MAJORITY: 2683 (6.4%)
Sitting MP: Martin Caton (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
The Tories have always eyed this seat but haven’t managed to win it. Their only hope this time is that UKIp takes votes away from Labour and they’re not replaced by former LibDem voters. I think they need to pray rather than hope.
3. Neath
2010 Result:
Conservative: 4847 (13.1%)
Labour: 17172 (46.3%)
Lib Dem: 5535 (14.9%)
Plaid Cymru: 7397 (19.9%)
BNP: 1342 (3.6%)
UKIP: 829 (2.2%)
MAJORITY: 9775 (26.3%)
Sitting MP: Peter Hain (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Safe seat even though Peter Hain is retiring.
4. Swansea East
2010 Result:
Conservative: 4823 (14.8%)
Labour: 16819 (51.5%)
Lib Dem: 5981 (18.3%)
Plaid Cymru: 2181 (6.7%)
BNP: 1715 (5.2%)
Green: 318 (1%)
UKIP: 839 (2.6%)
MAJORITY: 10838 (33.2%)
Sitting MP: Sian James (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Safe seat. Sian James is standing down.
5. Swansea West
2010 Result:
Conservative: 7407 (20.8%)
Labour: 12335 (34.7%)
Lib Dem: 11831 (33.2%)
Plaid Cymru: 1437 (4%)
BNP: 910 (2.6%)
Green: 404 (1.1%)
UKIP: 716 (2%)
TUSC: 179 (0.5%)
Independent: 374 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 504 (1.4%
Sitting MP: Geraint Davies (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
The LibDems came within a whisker of winning this seat last time and this is one their main hopes in 2015. Tactical voting by Conservatives may aid and abett them, and they will hope that UKIP leech off some traditional Labour support, but there are too many ‘ifs’ here to be confident of predicting an upset.
If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE
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