This is the forty-third in a series of blogposts (scroll to the bottom of the article for the others) which will seek to predict the outcome of every seat in the run-up to the next general election. The notion of a universal swing in May 2015 can be totally discounted. Each seat has to be treated on its merits. Feel free to add your comments and tell me where you think I have got things wrong. I will return to update each county analysis when and if I get new information.

Herefordshire & Worcestershire

Seats: 8
Current Political Makeup: Con 8
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 8

1. Hereford & South Herefordshire

2010 Result:
Conservative: 22366 (46.2%)
Labour: 3506 (7.2%)
Lib Dem: 19885 (41.1%)
BNP: 986 (2%)
UKIP: 1638 (3.4%)
MAJORITY: 2481 (5.1%)

Sitting MP: Jesse Norman (Con)
Prediction: Increased Conservative majority

Jesse Norman toppled the LibDems here in 2010 and it’s hard to see a scenario where he doesn’t win again and win big. Labour are nowhere here but may attract back some LibDem voters

2. North Herefordshire

2010 Result:
Conservative: 24631 (51.8%)
Labour: 3373 (7.1%)
Lib Dem: 14744 (31%)
Green: 1533 (3.2%)
UKIP: 2701 (5.7%)
Independent: 586 (1.2%)
MAJORITY: 9887 (20.8%)

Sitting MP: Bill Wiggin (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Safe seat.

3. Bromsgrove

2010 Result:
Conservative: 22558 (43.7%)
Labour: 11250 (21.8%)
Lib Dem: 10124 (19.6%)
BNP: 1923 (3.7%)
UKIP: 2950 (5.7%)
Independent: 336 (0.7%)
Others: 2489 (4.8%)
MAJORITY: 11308 (21.9%)

Sitting MP: Sajid Javid (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Safe seat.

4. Mid Worcestershire

2010 Result:
Conservative: 27770 (54.5%)
Labour: 7613 (14.9%)
Lib Dem: 11906 (23.4%)
Green: 593 (1.2%)
UKIP: 3049 (6%)
MAJORITY: 15864 (31.1%)

Sitting MP: Sir Peter Luff (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Safe seat. Sir Peter Luff is standing down.

5. Redditch

2010 Result:
Conservative: 19138 (43.5%)
Labour: 13317 (30.3%)
Lib Dem: 7750 (17.6%)
BNP: 1394 (3.2%)
Green: 393 (0.9%)
UKIP: 1497 (3.4%)
English Dem: 255 (0.6%)
Christian: 101 (0.2%)
Independent: 100 (0.2%)
Others: 73 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 5821 (13.2%)

Sitting MP: Karen Lumley (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Karen Lumley won this marginal seat from Jacqui Smith in 2010 by a very good margin. She can be confident of holding it in May.

6. West Worcestershire

2010 Result:
Conservative: 27213 (50.3%)
Labour: 3661 (6.8%)
Lib Dem: 20459 (37.8%)
Green: 641 (1.2%)
UKIP: 2119 (3.9%)
MAJORITY: 6754 (12.5%)

Sitting MP: Harriett Baldwin (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

The LibDems put in a lot of effort in this seat in 2010 but it wasn’t to be. Harriett Baldwin will win again.

7. Worcester

2010 Result:
Conservative: 19358 (39.5%)
Labour: 16376 (33.4%)
Lib Dem: 9525 (19.4%)
BNP: 1219 (2.5%)
Green: 735 (1.5%)
UKIP: 1360 (2.8%)
Independent: 129 (0.3%)
Others: 272 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 2982 (6.1%)

Sitting MP: Robin Walker (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

This will be very very close. It’s 48th on Labour’s target list and a seat they need to win to form a majority. Local intelligence seems to be split but the majority of those in the know think Robin Walker will just pull through.

8. Wyre Forest

2010 Result:
Conservative: 18793 (36.9%)
Labour: 7298 (14.3%)
Lib Dem: 6040 (11.9%)
BNP: 1120 (2.2%)
UKIP: 1498 (2.9%)
Health Concern: 16150 (31.7%)
MAJORITY: 2643 (5.2%)

Sitting MP: Mark Garnier (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

The former seat of Independent MP Richard Taylor, who is standing again for the National Health Action Party. Labour got 49% here in 1997 but have dropped to 14%. Richard Taylor’s vote declined by 6.9% last time. I doubt he will regain the seat.

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE

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