This is the fifty-fourth in a series of blogposts (scroll to the bottom of the article for the others) which will seek to predict the outcome of every seat in the run-up to the next general election. The notion of a universal swing in May 2015 can be totally discounted. Each seat has to be treated on its merits. Feel free to add your comments and tell me where you think I have got things wrong. I will return to update each county analysis when and if I get new information.

County Durham

Seats: 7
Current Political Makeup: Lab 7
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Lab 7

1. Bishop Auckland

2010 Result:
Conservative: 10805 (26.3%)
Labour: 16023 (39%)
Lib Dem: 9189 (22.3%)
BNP: 2036 (4.9%)
UKIP: 1119 (2.7%)
Others: 1964 (4.8%)
MAJORITY: 5218 (12.7%)

Sitting MP: Helen Goodman (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

2. City of Durham

2010 Result:
Conservative: 6146 (13.3%)
Labour: 20496 (44.3%)
Lib Dem: 17429 (37.7%)
BNP: 1153 (2.5%)
UKIP: 856 (1.9%)
Independent: 172 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 3067 (6.6%)

Sitting MP: Roberta Blackman-Woods (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

A LibDem target last time, but they didn’t quite pull it off. An increased Labour majority here.

3. Darlington

2010 Result:
Conservative: 13503 (31.5%)
Labour: 16891 (39.4%)
Lib Dem: 10046 (23.4%)
BNP: 1262 (2.9%)
UKIP: 1194 (2.8%)
MAJORITY: 3388 (7.9%)

Sitting MP: Jenny Chapman (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Michael Fallon was MP here between 1983 and 1992 and there are plenty of Tories who expected to win it back in 2010. It didn’t happen and the size of Labour’s majority make it unlikely to switch in May unless there’s a Tory majority of 50 or so. Some hope!

4. Easington

2010 Result:
Conservative: 4790 (13.7%)
Labour: 20579 (58.9%)
Lib Dem: 5597 (16%)
BNP: 2317 (6.6%)
UKIP: 1631 (4.7%)
MAJORITY: 14982 (42.9%)

Sitting MP: Grahame Morris (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

5. North Durham

2010 Result:
Conservative: 8622 (21%)
Labour: 20698 (50.5%)
Lib Dem: 8617 (21%)
BNP: 1686 (4.1%)
UKIP: 1344 (3.3%)
MAJORITY: 12076 (29.5%)

Sitting MP: Kevan Jones (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

6. North West Durham

2010 Result:
Conservative: 8766 (20%)
Labour: 18539 (42.3%)
Lib Dem: 10927 (24.9%)
BNP: 1852 (4.2%)
UKIP: 1259 (2.9%)
Independent: 2472 (5.6%)
MAJORITY: 7612 (17.4%)

Sitting MP: Pat Glass (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

7. Sedgefield

2010 Result:
Conservative: 9445 (23.5%)
Labour: 18141 (45.1%)
Lib Dem: 8033 (20%)
BNP: 2075 (5.2%)
UKIP: 1479 (3.7%)
Others: 1049 (2.6%)
MAJORITY: 8696 (21.6%)

Sitting MP: Phil Wilson (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE

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