This is the sixty-second in a series of blogposts (scroll to the bottom of the article for the others) which will seek to predict the outcome of every seat in the run-up to the next general election. The notion of a universal swing in May 2015 can be totally discounted. Each seat has to be treated on its merits. Feel free to add your comments and tell me where you think I have got things wrong. I will return to update each county analysis when and if I get new information.
Scotland – Glasgow Surrounds
Seats: 9
Current Political Makeup: Lab 8, LibDem 1
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Lab 9
24. Cumbernauld, Kilsyth & Kirkintolloch East
2010 Result:
Conservative: 3407 (8.3%)
Labour: 23549 (57.2%)
Lib Dem: 3924 (9.5%)
SNP: 9794 (23.8%)
Others: 476 (1.2%)
MAJORITY: 13755 (33.4%)
Sitting MP: Greg McClymont (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Safe seat.
25. West Dunbartonshire
2010 Result:
Conservative: 3242 (7.7%)
Labour: 25905 (61.3%)
Lib Dem: 3434 (8.1%)
SNP: 8497 (20.1%)
UKIP: 683 (1.6%)
Others: 505 (1.2%)
MAJORITY: 17408 (41.2%)
Sitting MP: Gemma Doyle (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Safe seat.
26. Inverclyde
2010 Result:
Conservative: 4502 (12%)
Labour: 20993 (56%)
Lib Dem: 5007 (13.3%)
SNP: 6577 (17.5%)
UKIP: 433 (1.2%)
MAJORITY: 14416 (38.4%)
Sitting MP: Iain McKenzie (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Safe seat.
27. Paisley & Renfrewshire South
2010 Result:
Conservative: 3979 (9.9%)
Labour: 23842 (59.6%)
Lib Dem: 3812 (9.5%)
SNP: 7228 (18.1%)
Independent: 513 (1.3%)
Others: 624 (1.6%)
MAJORITY: 16614 (41.5%)
Sitting MP: Douglas Alexander (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Safe seat.
31. East Kilbride, Strathaven & Lesmahagow
2010 Result:
Conservative: 6613 (13%)
Labour: 26241 (51.5%)
Lib Dem: 5052 (9.9%)
SNP: 11738 (23%)
Green: 1003 (2%)
Independent: 299 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 14503 (28.5%)
Sitting MP: Michael McCann (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Safe seat.
32. Lanark & Hamilton East
2010 Result:
Conservative: 6981 (15%)
Labour: 23258 (50%)
Lib Dem: 5249 (11.3%)
SNP: 9780 (21%)
UKIP: 616 (1.3%)
Independent: 670 (1.4%)
MAJORITY: 13478 (29%)
Sitting MP: Jimmy Hood (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Safe seat.
33. Airdrie & Shotts
2010 Result:
Conservative: 3133 (8.7%)
Labour: 20849 (58.2%)
Lib Dem: 2898 (8.1%)
SNP: 8441 (23.5%)
Independent: 528 (1.5%)
MAJORITY: 12408 (34.6%)
Sitting MP: Pamela Nash (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Safe seat.
58. East Dunbartonshire
2010 Result:
Conservative: 7431 (15.5%)
Labour: 16367 (34.1%)
Lib Dem: 18551 (38.7%)
SNP: 5054 (10.5%)
UKIP: 545 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 2184 (4.6%)
Sitting MP: Jo Swinson (LibDem)
Prediction: Labour gain
Jo Swinson is popular but all the political portents are against her. She will be a major loss to the LibDems. Her only chink of light is the Labour vote collapsing to the SNP.
59. Paisley & Renfrewshire North
2010 Result:
Conservative: 6381 (14.6%)
Labour: 23613 (54%)
Lib Dem: 4597 (10.5%)
SNP: 8333 (19.1%)
Independent: 550 (1.3%)
Others: 233 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 15280 (35%)
Sitting MP: Jim Sheridan (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Safe seat.
If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE
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