This is the sixty-fifth in a series of blogposts (scroll to the bottom of the article for the others) which will seek to predict the outcome of every seat in the run-up to the next general election. The notion of a universal swing in May 2015 can be totally discounted. Each seat has to be treated on its merits. Feel free to add your comments and tell me where you think I have got things wrong. I will return to update each county analysis when and if I get new information.

West Midlands A-S

Seats: 11
Current Political Makeup: Con 6, Lab 4, LibDem 1
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 6, Lab 5

1. Aldridge & Brownhills

2010 Result:
Conservative: 22913 (59.3%)
Labour: 7647 (19.8%)
Lib Dem: 6833 (17.7%)
Green: 847 (2.2%)
Christian: 394 (1%)
MAJORITY: 15266 (39.5%)

Sitting MP: Sir Richard Shepherd (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

11. Coventry North East

2010 Result:
Conservative: 9609 (22.1%)
Labour: 21384 (49.3%)
Lib Dem: 7210 (16.6%)
BNP: 1863 (4.3%)
UKIP: 1291 (3%)
Others: 2026 (4.7%)
MAJORITY: 11775 (27.1%)

Sitting MP: Bob Ainsworth (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

12. Coventry North West

2010 Result:
Conservative: 13648 (29.3%)
Labour: 19936 (42.8%)
Lib Dem: 8344 (17.9%)
BNP: 1666 (3.6%)
Green: 497 (1.1%)
UKIP: 1295 (2.8%)
Independent: 640 (1.4%)
Others: 534 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 6288 (13.5%)

Sitting MP: Geoffrey Robinson (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

13. Coventry South

2010 Result:
Conservative: 15352 (33.4%)
Labour: 19197 (41.8%)
Lib Dem: 8278 (18%)
Green: 639 (1.4%)
UKIP: 1767 (3.8%)
Others: 691 (1.5%)
MAJORITY: 3845 (8.4%)

Sitting MP: Jim Cunningham (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

The most marginal of the Coventry seats but it’s difficult to imagine anything other than a Labour win here.

14. Dudley North

2010 Result:
Conservative: 14274 (37%)
Labour: 14923 (38.7%)
Lib Dem: 4066 (10.5%)
BNP: 1899 (4.9%)
UKIP: 3267 (8.5%)
Others: 173 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 649 (1.7%)

Sitting MP: Ian Austin (Lab)
Prediction: Increased Labour majority

Ian Austin managed to hold off a strong Tory challenge in 2010 and should do so again if he can benefit from the decline in LibDem voters. However, polls show UKIP doing well here and they have opened a large campaigns office.

15. Dudley South

2010 Result:
Conservative: 16450 (43.1%)
Labour: 12594 (33%)
Lib Dem: 5989 (15.7%)
UKIP: 3132 (8.2%)
MAJORITY: 3856 (10.1%)

Sitting MP: Chris Kelly (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Chris Kelly is retiring after only one term and is succeeded by Mike Wood. This has increased the chances of Labour taking the seat. The swing in 2010 was higher than the national average which could mean one of two things – one, that there are demogrphic moves afoot, or that this seat is more volatile than others.

16. Halesowen & Rowley Regis

2010 Result:
Conservative: 18115 (41.2%)
Labour: 16092 (36.6%)
Lib Dem: 6515 (14.8%)
UKIP: 2824 (6.4%)
Independent: 433 (1%)
MAJORITY: 2023 (4.6%)

Sitting MP: James Morris (Con)
Prediction: Labour gain

Labour need to win this seat to become the largest party in the House of Commons.

17. Meriden

2010 Result:
Conservative: 26956 (51.7%)
Labour: 10703 (20.5%)
Lib Dem: 9278 (17.8%)
BNP: 2511 (4.8%)
Green: 678 (1.3%)
UKIP: 1378 (2.6%)
Others: 658 (1.3%)
MAJORITY: 16253 (31.2%)

Sitting MP: Caroline Spelman (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Safe seat.

18. Solihull

2010 Result:
Conservative: 23460 (42.6%)
Labour: 4891 (8.9%)
Lib Dem: 23635 (42.9%)
BNP: 1624 (2.9%)
UKIP: 1200 (2.2%)
Others: 319 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 175 (0.3%)

Sitting MP: Lorely Burt (LibDem)
Prediction: Conservative gain

Lorely Burt did very well to hang onto her seat last time (she won it in 2005 with a majority of 279) and confounded all expectations. The Labour vote has gone down from 25% to 8% and if Labour takes just a thousand votes from the LibDem the Conservatives will win a seat many think they should never have lost.

19. Stourbridge

2010 Result:
Conservative: 20153 (42.7%)
Labour: 14989 (31.7%)
Lib Dem: 7733 (16.4%)
BNP: 1696 (3.6%)
Green: 394 (0.8%)
UKIP: 2103 (4.5%)
Independent: 166 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 5164 (10.9%)

Sitting MP: Margot James (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

A fantastic result for Margot James last time. Surely she will pull through again.

20. Sutton Coldfield

2010 Result:
Conservative: 27303 (54%)
Labour: 10298 (20.4%)
Lib Dem: 9117 (18%)
BNP: 1749 (3.5%)
Green: 535 (1.1%)
UKIP: 1587 (3.1%)
MAJORITY: 17005 (33.6%)

Sitting MP: Andrew Mitchell (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Safe seat.

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE

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