UK Politics

Revised General Election Predictions for the South East

16 Mar 2015 at 18:53

There are 78 parliamentary constituencies in the South East. In my original predictions in January, this is how things stood…

Conservative 67
Labour 7
LibDem 1
UKIP 1
Green 1
Speaker 1

There are only two constituencies in the South East that I wish to revise my predictions for, and both are to the advantage of the Liberal Democrats.

Eastbourne

2010 Result:
Conservative: 21223 (40.7%)
Labour: 2497 (4.8%)
Lib Dem: 24658 (47.3%)
BNP: 939 (1.8%)
UKIP: 1305 (2.5%)
Independent: 1327 (2.5%)
Others: 175 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 3435 (6.6%)

Sitting MP: Stephen Lloyd (LibDem)
Prediction: Probable Conservative gain
Revised Prediction: LibDem hold

Won in 2010 from Nigel Waterson, Stephen Lloyd may hang on, but I’d expect the Labour vote to at least double at the expense of the LibDems, so yet again, a lot depends on how many votes the Tories lose to UKIP. Lloyd has been a hardworking MP but rather preposterously resigned as a government PPS as his constituency didn’t get enough ‘pork’ in the autumn statement. UPDATE: Since I predicted this I have had a lot of representations from people who reckon I’ve got this wrong. In addition, I had missed the Ashcroft poll which had put the LibDems way ahead 47-25. So when the facts change, I change my mind.

Eastleigh

2010 Result:
Conservative: 21102 (39.3%)
Labour: 5153 (9.6%)
Lib Dem: 24966 (46.5%)
UKIP: 1933 (3.6%)
English Dem: 249 (0.5%)
Independent: 154 (0.3%)
Others: 93 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 3864 (7.2%)

2013 BY ELECTION Result:
Conservative: 10,559 (25.4%)
Labour: 3088 (9.8%)
Lib Dem: 13,342 (32.1%)
UKIP: 11,571 (27.8%)
Others: 2,194 (4.8%)
MAJORITY: 1,771 (4.3%)

Sitting MP: Mike Thornton (LibDem)
Prediction: Conservative gain
Revised Prediction: LibDem hold

The Conservatives thought they would win this seat back at each of the last two general elections, but each time Chris Huhne pulled through. At the by-election they came third, with UKIP almost pipping the rather monochrome Mike Thornton. It’s highly unlikely UKIP’s vote will hold up so the outcome of this seat may depend on where UKIP’s voters put their cross. If enough of them return to the Conservative fold, it could be enough to see the Conservative home. Having said that, the LibDems remain strong in local government and have a good infrastructure there. This could prove to be the difference, but on balance I think their national woes may count against Thornton holding the seat. I realise I may be in the minority in making this particular prediction. UPDATE: I had thought Diane James was standing here for UKIP, but that’s not the case. In addition, feeback from those who are more in the know than I am suggest that the LibDems will be OK here. I’m still not wholly convinced, but we’ll see.

I am not making any changes to my existing predictions for Berkshire, Kent & West Sussex. So with only two changes, this is how the South East now looks…

Conservative 65
Labour 7
LibDem 3
UKIP 1
Green 1
Speaker 1

Which means the main state of play alters slightly to…

Conservative 278
Labour 276
LibDem 24
UKIP 6
SNP 42
Plaid Cymru 3
DUP 9
Respect 1
Green 1
Sinn Fein 5
SDLP 3
Others 2

Share: