Revised General Election Predictions for the North West

There are 75 constituencies in the North West, which includes Cheshire, Liverpool, Greater Manchester, Lancashire and Cumbria.

In my original predictions in January this was the state of the parties…

Conservative 18
Labour 55
LibDem 1
UKIP 1

This is the seats that I am revising…

Southport

2010 Result:
Conservative: 15683 (35.8%)
Labour: 4116 (9.4%)
Lib Dem: 21707 (49.6%)
UKIP: 2251 (5.1%)
MAJORITY: 6024 (13.8%)

Sitting MP: John Pugh (LibDem)
Prediction: Conservative gain
Revised Prediction: LibDem hold

This seat has alternated between the LibDems and Conservatives for years, although the last time the Tories won it was in 1992. Labour are nowhere here. UPDATE: I’ve changed my mind on this. I had missed the Ashcroft poll, which is fairly conclusive, with the LibDems on 37 and the Tories trailing badly on 24.

So the prediction becomes…

Conservative 17
Labour 55
LibDem 2
UKIP 1

Which means my countrywide predictin looks like this…

Conservative 275
Labour 275
LibDem 25
UKIP 8
SNP 42
Plaid Cymru 4
DUP 9
Respect 1
Green 1
Sinn Fein 5
SDLP 3
Others 2