Back in January I predicted the outcome of the General Election, seat by seat. Since then, I have done more research and altered some of the predictions taking into account various issues including new updated constituency polls by Lord Ashcroft. Over the next ten days I will be revisiting each county and region giving my final predictions. I’d still welcome feedback, even at this late stage.

BUCKINGHAMSHIRE

Seats: 7
Current Political Makeup: Con 6, Speaker 1
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 5, Labour 1, Speaker 1
Final Prediction: Unchanged

1. Aylesbury

2010 Result:
Conservative: 27736 (52.2%)
Labour: 6695 (12.6%)
Lib Dem: 15118 (28.4%)
UKIP: 3613 (6.8%)
MAJORITY: 12618 (23.7%)

Sitting MP: David Lidington (Con)
Prediction: Definite Conservative hold

Easy win for David Lidington.

2. Beaconsfield

2010 Result:
Conservative: 32053 (61.1%)
Labour: 6135 (11.7%)
Lib Dem: 10271 (19.6%)
Green: 768 (1.5%)
UKIP: 2597 (4.9%)
Independent: 191 (0.4%)
Others: 475 (0.9%)
MAJORITY: 21782 (41.5%)

Sitting MP: Dominic Grieve (Con)
Prediction: Definite Conservative hold

With 61% of the vote it’s safe to say Dominic Grieve can be confident of victory!

3. Buckingham

2010 Result:
Conservative: 0 (0%)
Labour: 0 (0%)
Lib Dem: 0 (0%)
BNP: 980 (2%)
UKIP: 8401 (17.4%)
Speaker: 22860 (47.3%)
Christian: 369 (0.8%)
Independent: 10331 (21.4%)
Others: 5394 (11.2%)
MAJORITY: 12529 (25.9%)

Sitting MP: John Bercow (Speaker)
Prediction: Bercow to win

No comment needed.

4. Chesham & Amersham

2010 Result:
Conservative: 31658 (60.4%)
Labour: 2942 (5.6%)
Lib Dem: 14948 (28.5%)
Green: 767 (1.5%)
UKIP: 2129 (4.1%)
MAJORITY: 16710 (31.9%)

Sitting MP: Cheryl Gillan (Con)
Prediction: Increased Conservative majority

Another 60% vote share. This might reduce, although the fracturing of the LibDem vote should see Cheryl Gillan increase her majority.

5. Milton Keynes North
2010 Result:
Conservative: 23419 (43.5%)
Labour: 14458 (26.8%)
Lib Dem: 11894 (22.1%)
BNP: 1154 (2.1%)
Green: 733 (1.4%)
UKIP: 1772 (3.3%)
Independent: 95 (0.2%)
Others: 363 (0.7%)
MAJORITY: 8961 (16.6%)

Sitting MP: Mark Lancaster (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

A Labour seat in 1997 and 2005, the boundaries were redrawn for 2010 and although a Labour gain is possible, it is far from probable. The LibDem vote would need to halve and all those votes would need to go to Labour? Unlikely? I’d have thought so.

6. Milton Keynes South

2010 Result:
Conservative: 23034 (41.6%)
Labour: 17833 (32.2%)
Lib Dem: 9787 (17.7%)
BNP: 1502 (2.7%)
Green: 774 (1.4%)
UKIP: 2074 (3.7%)
Others: 329 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 5201 (9.4%)

Sitting MP: Iain Stewart (Con)
Prediction: Narrow Labour gain

Very difficult to call, but it was a Labour seat for 13 years under Blair and Brown and there is a substantial LibDem vote for Labour to win over. I think they may well just do it. UPDATE The latest Ashcroft poll only puts Labour ahead by two points, which is statistically insignificant. The result here will be a good sign of how other more affluent Tory/Lab marginals might go.

7. Wycombe

2010 Result:
Conservative: 23423 (48.6%)
Labour: 8326 (17.3%)
Lib Dem: 13863 (28.8%)
UKIP: 2123 (4.4%)
Independent: 228 (0.5%)
Others: 188 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 9560 (19.9%)

Sitting MP: Steve Baker (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

The Tory majority here has increased at each of the last three general elections but some demographic changes might suggest this trend may go into reverse in 2015. I’m not suggesting that the seat is at risk of being lose by the Tories, but they would do well to court the increasing Asian vote here.

To see the complete list of predictions click HERE