Back in January I predicted the outcome of the General Election, seat by seat. Since then, I have done more research and altered some of the predictions taking into account various issues including new updated constituency polls by Lord Ashcroft. Over the next ten days I will be revisiting each county and region giving my final predictions. I’d still welcome feedback, even at this late stage.

Seats: 6
Current Political Makeup: Con 5, LibDem 1
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 3, Lab 2, LibDem 1
Final Prediction: Con 4, Lab 1, LibDem 1

1. Cheltenham

2010 Result:
Conservative: 21739 (41.2%)
Labour: 2703 (5.1%)
Lib Dem: 26659 (50.5%)
UKIP: 1192 (2.3%)
Others: 493 (0.9%)
MAJORITY: 4920 (9.3%)

Sitting MP: Martin Horwood (LibDem)
Prediction LibDem hold

A Liberal Democrat seat since 1992, this is one which the Conservatives had expected to take back in both 2005 and 2010, but it wasn’t to be. The Labour vote has been squeezed to just 5%. Martin Horwood is extremely popular and will have built up a high personal vote. On a catastrophic night for the LibDems it’s easy to see Cheltenham falling, but not otherwise.

2. Forest of Dean

2010 Result:
Conservative: 22853 (46.9%)
Labour: 11789 (24.2%)
Lib Dem: 10676 (21.9%)
Green: 923 (1.9%)
UKIP: 2522 (5.2%)
MAJORITY: 11064 (22.7%)

Sitting MP: Mark Harper (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Bearing in mind this seat has a large Tory majority it’s astonishing to think that it was a Labour seat in 1997 and 2001. Harper will win again, but with a reduced majority.

3. Gloucester

2010 Result:
Conservative: 20267 (39.9%)
Labour: 17847 (35.2%)
Lib Dem: 9767 (19.2%)
Green: 511 (1%)
UKIP: 1808 (3.6%)
English Dem: 564 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 2420 (4.8%)

Sitting MP: Richard Graham (Con)
Prediction: Labour gain
Updated Prediction: Conservative hold

*A Labour seat between 1997 and 2010 if this isn’t more or less a dead cert Labour gain, I don’t know what is, assuming Ed Miliband is anywhere close to taking power. UPDATE: Well the latest Ashcroft poll in this seat puts the Conservatives four points ahead. This is by no means decisive, but it is a sign that Labour aren’t doing as well here as they should be.

4. Stroud

2010 Result:
Conservative: 23679 (40.8%)
Labour: 22380 (38.6%)
Lib Dem: 8955 (15.4%)
Green: 1542 (2.7%)
UKIP: 1301 (2.2%)
Independent: 116 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 1299 (2.2%)

Sitting MP: Neil Carmichael (Con)
Prediction: Labour gain

I know from personal experience that Neil Carmichael has made the constituency his priority, but it’s doubtful one term is enough to have built up enough of a personal vote to combat the march of Miliband. The former Labour MP for the area David Drew is standing again, which presumably makes Neil Carmichael’s task all the harder. Has to be a definite Labour gain if Miliband is to make it to Number 10.

5. Tewkesbury

2010 Result:
Conservative: 25472 (47.2%)
Labour: 6253 (11.6%)
Lib Dem: 19162 (35.5%)
Green: 525 (1%)
UKIP: 2230 (4.1%)
Others: 319 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 6310 (11.7%)

Sitting MP: Laurence Robertson (Con)
Prediction: Increased Conservative majority

Safe seat. Probably an increased majority if the LibDem vote peels away to Labour.

6. The Cotswolds

2010 Result:
Conservative: 29075 (53%)
Labour: 5886 (10.7%)
Lib Dem: 16211 (29.6%)
Green: 940 (1.7%)
UKIP: 2292 (4.2%)
Independent: 428 (0.8%)
MAJORITY: 12864 (23.5%)

Sitting MP: Geoffrey Clifton-Brown (Con)
Prediction: Increased Conservative majority

Same as Tewkesbury.

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE