Back in January I predicted the outcome of the General Election, seat by seat. Since then, I have done more research and altered some of the predictions taking into account various issues including new updated constituency polls by Lord Ashcroft. Over the next ten days I will be revisiting each county and region giving my final predictions. I’d still welcome feedback, even at this late stage.
Note that the constituencies where the full text is in BOLD is one where my prediction has changed. In this case the only change is Norwich North
NORFOLK
Seats: 9
Current State of the Parties: Con 7, LibDem 2
Predicted State of the Parties: Con 6, LibDem 1, Labour 2
Final Prediction: Con 7, LibDem 1, Labour 1
Broadland
2010 Result:
Conservative: 24338 (46.2%)
Labour: 7287 (13.8%)
Lib Dem: 17046 (32.4%)
BNP: 871 (1.7%)
Green: 752 (1.4%)
UKIP: 2382 (4.5%)
MAJORITY: 7292 (13.8%)
Sitting MP: Keith Simpson (Con)
Prediction: Definite Conservative Hold
It would take an earthquake to shift Keith Simpson. The LibDems used to have pretensions here but the so-called ‘North Norfolk effect’ has so far not trickled south of Aylsham.
Great Yarmouth
2010 Result:
Conservative: 18571 (43.1%)
Labour: 14295 (33.2%)
Lib Dem: 6188 (14.4%)
BNP: 1421 (3.3%)
Green: 416 (1%)
UKIP: 2066 (4.8%)
Others: 100 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 4276 (9.9%)
Sitting MP: Brandon Lewis (Con)
Prediction: Narrow Conservative hold
A genuine three way marginal, this seat ought to swing back to Labour if Ed Miliband is to win a majority. However, much of Labour’s vote has defected to UKIP and this seat is one of their top targets. In local government UKIP has won a swathe of seats on both the borough and county councils. As elsewhere, UKIP has had candidate troubles here and that may count against them. Brandon Lewis, who won the seat with a bigger than expected majority in 2010 and has been quite a high profile junior minister will do well to hang on here, but he may well just do it. UPDATE: The latest Ashcroft poll shows UKIP doing incredibly well, but two points behind Brandon Lewis, with Labour a further three points behind. In many ways this is too close to call, but I think the most likely result is a very narrow Conservative win.
Mid Norfolk
2010 Result:
Conservative: 25123 (49.5%)
Labour: 8857 (17.4%)
Lib Dem: 11267 (22.2%)
BNP: 1261 (2.5%)
Green: 1457 (2.9%)
UKIP: 2800 (5.5%)
MAJORITY: 13856 (27.3%)
Sitting MP: George Freeman (Con)
Prediction: Definite Conservative hold
North Norfolk
2010 Result:
Conservative: 15928 (32.1%)
Labour: 2896 (5.8%)
Lib Dem: 27554 (55.5%)
Green: 508 (1%)
UKIP: 2680 (5.4%)
Independent: 95 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 11626 (23.4%)
Sitting MP: Norman Lamb (LibDem)
Prediction: LibDem hold
This was the scene of my electoral defenstration in 2005. Despite adverse boundary changes, which took Fakenham out of the seat, Lamb’s majority increased in 2010 to more than 11,000.. It will probably be cut this time, although UKIP is making a lot of inroads into the Tory vote. Labour has a very active candidate in Denise Burke and it is expected that she will start to build up the almost extinct Labour vote here, almost entirely at the expense of the LibDems.
Norwich North
2010 Result:
Conservative: 17280 (40.6%)
Labour: 13379 (31.4%)
Lib Dem: 7783 (18.3%)
BNP: 747 (1.8%)
Green: 1245 (2.9%)
UKIP: 1878 (4.4%)
Christian: 118 (0.3%)
Independent: 143 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 3901 (9.2%)
Sitting MP: Chloe Smith
Prediction: Labour gain
Final Prediction: Conservative hold
This is the seat where I cut my political teeth back in the mid 1980s. It hasn’t changed a lot since then, although there are quite a few new build housing estates. This is another seat which goes with the prevailing political wind. If Cameron wins a majority Chloe Smith will hold her seat. If he doesn’t she will face a very tough fight against the impressive Labour candidate Jessica Asato. UPDATE: The latest Lord Ashcroft poll puts Chloe Smith only one point behind Jessica Asato. I have kept in touch with people in this seat and all the anecdotal evidence suggests Chloe is set to pull off an upset here.
Norwich South
2010 Result:
Conservative: 10902 (22.9%)
Labour: 13650 (28.7%)
Lib Dem: 13960 (29.4%)
BNP: 697 (1.5%)
Green: 7095 (14.9%)
UKIP: 1145 (2.4%)
Others: 102 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 310 (0.7%)
Sitting MP: Simon Wright
Prediction: Labour gain
If there was one definite Labour gain at the election, this would be it. Much to his own surprise Wright won this from Charles Clarke 2010 and since then seems to have remained in a total state of bemusement. Having been Norman Lamb’s campaign manager, Wright knows all there is to know about the LibDem campaign manual for holding a seat once you’ve won it, but he seemed to give up on this seat almost from day 1. The Greens have pretensions here, but usually flatter to deceive in general elections. It’s conceivable that they could gain five percent from both the LibDems and Labour, but in reality it’s difficult to see anything other than a Labour gain. UPDATE: The Ashcroft poll puts Labour on 33, the Greens on 20 and the LibDems on only 12%, behind the Tories on 18.
North West Norfolk
2010 Result:
Conservative: 25916 (54.2%)
Labour: 6353 (13.3%)
Lib Dem: 11106 (23.2%)
BNP: 1839 (3.8%)
Green: 745 (1.6%)
UKIP: 1841 (3.9%)
MAJORITY: 14810 (31%)
Sitting MP: Henry Bellingham (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold
This seat went Labour for a time under Tony Blair, but it returned to the Conservative fold in 2001 and Henry Bellingham has built a solid majority. This might well increase in May as UKIP slices into the Labour vote, although they might do the same to Bellingham.
South Norfolk
2010 Result:
Conservative: 27133 (49.3%)
Labour: 7252 (13.2%)
Lib Dem: 16193 (29.4%)
BNP: 1086 (2%)
Green: 1000 (1.8%)
UKIP: 2329 (4.2%)
MAJORITY: 10940 (19.9%)
Sitting MP: Richard Bacon (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold*
The LibDems have done their best here in the past and have controlled one or two local councils, but they have never seriously threatened the Conservative majority, and certainly won’t do this time.
South West Norfolk
2010 Result:
Conservative: 23753 (48.3%)
Labour: 9119 (18.6%)
Lib Dem: 10613 (21.6%)
BNP: 1774 (3.6%)
Green: 830 (1.7%)
UKIP: 3061 (6.2%)
MAJORITY: 13140 (26.7%)
Sitting MP: Liz Truss (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold
Of all the so-called safe Conservative seats in Norfolk, this one that is most volatile. It has seen a huge demographic change in the last 20 years. It almost went Labour in 1997 but Gillian Shephard just held on. UKIP have got a foothold here, but no one quite knows where their vote might come from.
To see the complete list of predictions click HERE
