Back in January I predicted the outcome of the General Election, seat by seat. Since then, I have done more research and altered some of the predictions taking into account various issues including new updated constituency polls by Lord Ashcroft. Over the next ten days I will be revisiting each county and region giving my final predictions. I’d still welcome feedback, even at this late stage.

SOMERSET

Seats: 5
Current Political Makeup: Con 1, LibDem 4
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 4, LibDem 1
Final Prediction: Unchanged

1. Bridgwater & Somerset West

2010 Result:
Conservative: 24675 (45.3%)
Labour: 9332 (17.1%)
Lib Dem: 15426 (28.3%)
BNP: 1282 (2.4%)
Green: 859 (1.6%)
UKIP: 2604 (4.8%)
Independent: 315 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 9249 (17%)

Sitting MP: Ian Liddell-Grainger
Prediction: Conservative hold

Safe seat.

2. Somerton & Frome

2010 Result:
Conservative: 26976 (44.5%)
Labour: 2675 (4.4%)
Lib Dem: 28793 (47.5%)
UKIP: 1932 (3.2%)
Others: 236 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 1817 (3%)

Sitting MP: David Heath (LibDem)
Prediction: Conservative gain

LibDem HQ must have been tearing their hair out when David Heath announced his retirement as he stood the best prospect of retaining this seat. His current majority is the largest he has ever enjoyed, but that is largely because at the last election the UKIP vote doubled to nearly 2,000. If they do the same in 2015 they could deny the Conservatives a gain they thought they had in the bag last time.

3. Taunton Deane

2010 Result:
Conservative: 24538 (42.2%)
Labour: 2967 (5.1%)
Lib Dem: 28531 (49.1%)
UKIP: 2114 (3.6%)
MAJORITY: 3993 (6.9%)

Sitting MP: Jeremy Browne (LibDem)
Prediction: Narrow Conservative gain

Boundary changes last time increased Browne’s majority from just over 500. However, his personal vote will now disappear as he is standing down. I think it’s possible for the LibDems to hold the seat but I’d given them no more than a 25% chance of doing so.,

4. Wells

2010 Result:
Conservative: 23760 (42.5%)
Labour: 4198 (7.5%)
Lib Dem: 24560 (44%)
BNP: 1004 (1.8%)
Green: 631 (1.1%)
UKIP: 1711 (3.1%)
MAJORITY: 800 (1.4%)

Sitting MP: Tessa Munt (LibDem)
Prediction: Conservative gain

The former seat of David Heathcoat-Amory Tessa Munt won Wells in 2010. She has enjoyed a high media profile and has conducted some good campaigns. The Tories will make every effort to regain this seat and will be devastated if they don’t pull it off.

5. Yeovil

2010 Result:
Conservative: 18807 (32.9%)
Labour: 2991 (5.2%)
Lib Dem: 31843 (55.7%)
BNP: 1162 (2%)
UKIP: 2357 (4.1%)
MAJORITY: 13036 (22.8%)

Sitting MP: David Laws (LibDem)
Prediction: LibDem hold

Surely a dead cert LibDem hold? Laws may lose a few votes because of his expenses scandal, and will suffer because of the LibDem decline in popularity, but I can’t see a 13,000 majority being overturned.

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE