Back in January I predicted the outcome of the General Election, seat by seat. Since then, I have done more research and altered some of the predictions taking into account various issues including new updated constituency polls by Lord Ashcroft. Over the next ten days I will be revisiting each county and region giving my final predictions. I’d still welcome feedback, even at this late stage.
LONDON WEST
Seats: 9
Current Political Makeup: Con 4, Lab 5
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 2, Lab 7
Final Prediction: Unchanged
Brentford & Isleworth
2010 Result:
Conservative: 20022 (37.2%)
Labour: 18064 (33.6%)
Lib Dem: 12718 (23.7%)
BNP: 704 (1.3%)
Green: 787 (1.5%)
UKIP: 863 (1.6%)
English Dem: 230 (0.4%)
Christian: 210 (0.4%)
Independent: 68 (0.1%)
Others: 99 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 1958 (3.6%)
Sitting MP: Mary Macleod (Con)
Prediction: Labour gain
Mary Macleod has had a relatively high profile as a backbencher but that won’t save her here. What could save her is the gradual gentrification of the constituency, although the fragmenting of the LibDem vote and where it goes is more likely to determine Macleod’s fate.
Chelsea & Fulham
2010 Result:
Conservative: 24093 (60.5%)
Labour: 7371 (18.5%)
Lib Dem: 6473 (16.2%)
BNP: 388 (1%)
Green: 671 (1.7%)
UKIP: 478 (1.2%)
English Dem: 169 (0.4%)
Others: 213 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 16722 (42%)
Sitting MP: Greg Hands (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold
Safe seat.
Ealing Central & Acton
2010 Result:
Conservative: 17944 (38%)
Labour: 14228 (30.1%)
Lib Dem: 13041 (27.6%)
Green: 737 (1.6%)
UKIP: 765 (1.6%)
Christian: 295 (0.6%)
Others: 190 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 3716 (7.9%)
Sitting MP: Angie Bray (Con)
Prediction: Labour gain
Again, the LibDem vote will determine whether Labour can take this marginal seat from Angie Bray. The Labour vote has halved here since 1997 – a far steeper rate of decline than in Brentford & Isleworth. This lends weight to the gentrifcation argument which now seems to be affecting outer boroughs like Ealing. A similar effect can be seen in parts of North East and East London.
Ealing North
2010 Result:
Conservative: 14722 (30.9%)
Labour: 24023 (50.4%)
Lib Dem: 6283 (13.2%)
BNP: 1045 (2.2%)
Green: 505 (1.1%)
UKIP: 685 (1.4%)
Christian: 415 (0.9%)
MAJORITY: 9301 (19.5%)
Sitting MP: Stephen Pound
Prediction: Labour hold
Safe seat.
Ealing Southall
2010 Result:
Conservative: 12733 (29.8%)
Labour: 22024 (51.5%)
Lib Dem: 6383 (14.9%)
Green: 705 (1.6%)
English Dem: 408 (1%)
Christian: 503 (1.2%)
MAJORITY: 9291 (21.7%)
Sitting MP: Virendra Sharma (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Safe seat.
Feltham & Heston
2010 Result:
Conservative: 16516 (34%)
Labour: 21174 (43.6%)
Lib Dem: 6679 (13.8%)
BNP: 1714 (3.5%)
Green: 530 (1.1%)
UKIP: 992 (2%)
Independent: 505 (1%)
Others: 426 (0.9%)
MAJORITY: 4658 (9.6%)
BY-ELECTION 2011
Seema Malhotra (Labour) 12639 54.4% (10.8%)
Mark Bowen (Conservative) 6436 27.7% (-6.3%)
Roger Crouch (Liberal Democrat) 1364 5.9% (-7.8%)
Andrew Charalambous (UKIP) 1276 5.5% (3.5%)
Dave Furness (BNP) 540 2.3% (-1.2%)
Daniel Goldsmith (Green) 426 1.8% (0.7%)
Roger Cooper (English Democrats) 322 1.4% (n/a)
George Hallam (People Before Profit) 128 0.6% (n/a)
David Bishop (Buss Pass Elvis) 93 0.4% (n/a)
MAJORITY 6203 26.7% (17.1%)
Turnout 28.8% (-31.1%)
Sitting MP: Seema Malhotra (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
This was thought to be vulnerable to the Tories at the last election but the then MP Alan Keen held on well. The 2011 by-election showed that they were never really in the game here.
Hammersmith
2010 Result:
Conservative: 17261 (36.4%)
Labour: 20810 (43.9%)
Lib Dem: 7567 (15.9%)
BNP: 432 (0.9%)
Green: 696 (1.5%)
UKIP: 551 (1.2%)
Independent: 135 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 3549 (7.5%)
Sitting MP: Andy Slaughter (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Widely tipped to fall to the Tories in 2010, Labour not only held on, but got a good majority. Andy Slaughter is safe here.
Hayes & Harlington
2010 Result:
Conservative: 12553 (29.4%)
Labour: 23377 (54.8%)
Lib Dem: 3726 (8.7%)
BNP: 1520 (3.6%)
Green: 348 (0.8%)
English Dem: 464 (1.1%)
Christian: 83 (0.2%)
Others: 566 (1.3%)
MAJORITY: 10824 (25.4%)
Sitting MP: John McDonnell
Prediction: Labour hold
Safe seat.
Uxbridge & South Ruislip
2010 Result:
Conservative: 21758 (48.3%)
Labour: 10542 (23.4%)
Lib Dem: 8995 (20%)
BNP: 1396 (3.1%)
Green: 477 (1.1%)
UKIP: 1234 (2.7%)
English Dem: 403 (0.9%)
Others: 271 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 11216 (24.9%)
Sitting MP: John Randall (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold
Safe seat for Boris Johnson to cruise into Parliament with.
If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE
