Back in January I predicted the outcome of the General Election, seat by seat. Since then, I have done more research and altered some of the predictions taking into account various issues including new updated constituency polls by Lord Ashcroft. Over the next ten days I will be revisiting each county and region giving my final predictions. I’d still welcome feedback, even at this late stage.

Gwynedd

Seats: 3
Current Political Makeup: Lab 1, Plaid Cymru 2
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Lab 1, Plaid Cymru 2
Final Prediction: Unchanged

1. Arfon

2010 Result:
Conservative: 4416 (16.9%)
Labour: 7928 (30.4%)
Lib Dem: 3666 (14.1%)
Plaid Cymru: 9383 (36%)
UKIP: 685 (2.6%)
MAJORITY: 1455 (5.6%)

Sitting MP: Hywel Williams (PC)
Prediction: Plaid Cymru hold

This has been a Plaid seat for yonks, but Labour isn’t far behind, albeit on a very small electorate. The Plaid organisation is strong here. It’s not inconceivable that Labour could win but I doubt it.

2. Dwyfor Meironnydd

2010 Result:
Conservative: 6447 (22.3%)
Labour: 4021 (13.9%)
Lib Dem: 3538 (12.2%)
Plaid Cymru: 12814 (44.3%)
UKIP: 776 (2.7%)
Independent: 1310 (4.5%)
MAJORITY: 6367 (22%)

Sitting MP: Elfyn Llwyd (PC)
Prediction: Plaid Cymru hold

Safe seat.

3. Ynys Mon

2010 Result:
Conservative: 7744 (22.5%)
Labour: 11490 (33.4%)
Lib Dem: 2592 (7.5%)
Plaid Cymru: 9029 (26.2%)
UKIP: 1201 (3.5%)
Christian: 163 (0.5%)
Independent: 2225 (6.5%)
MAJORITY: 2461 (7.1%)

Sitting MP: Albert Owen (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

This seat has been held by the Tories, Labour and Plaid in the last thirty years. In 1992 and 1997 it went Plaid but since then the Labour majority has been increasing. I suspect it will again. However, UKIP is expected to do very well here. No one knows where their votes may come from, so anything is possible.

Powys

Seats: 2
Current Political Makeup: Con 1, LibDem 1
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 1, LibDem 1
Final Prediction: Unchanged

1. Brecon & Radnorshire

2010 Result:
Conservative: 14182 (36.5%)
Labour: 4096 (10.5%)
Lib Dem: 17929 (46.2%)
Plaid Cymru: 989 (2.5%)
Green: 341 (0.9%)
UKIP: 876 (2.3%)
Christian: 222 (0.6%)
Others: 210 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 3747 (9.6%)

Sitting MP: Roger Williams
Prediction: LibDem hold
Updated Prediction: Conservative gain

A Conservative gain here is possible but not definite. One of the tightest results in 2015, I’d think. The LibDems must be hoping that Roger Williams will definitely stand again, because if they hold onto this seat it will be in large part down to his personal vote. A few months ago I tipped this seat to go blue. I’m revising that now to a very narrow LibDem win. The Ashcroft polls show a definite loss to the Tories when people are asked who they will vote for in the election. But when they are asked to think about their own particular constituency the situation is dramatically reversed and the LibDems are ahead by 4%. UPDATE: I’m going to change my mind again. The LibDems have imploded in Wales far more than in England and I now think they will end up with no seats there.

2. Montgomeryshire

2010 Result:
Conservative: 13976 (41.3%)
Labour: 2407 (7.1%)
Lib Dem: 12792 (37.8%)
Plaid Cymru: 2802 (8.3%)
UKIP: 1128 (3.3%)
Independent: 324 (1%)
Others: 384 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 1184 (3.5%)

Sitting MP: Glyn Davies (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Glyn Davies won this seat in part because Lembit Opik outstayed his welcome. He’s proved to be quite popular and although the LibDems are convinced they can retake this seat I suspect they’ll be badly disappointed.

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE