Back in January I predicted the outcome of the General Election, seat by seat. Since then, I have done more research and altered some of the predictions taking into account various issues including new updated constituency polls by Lord Ashcroft. Over the next ten days I will be revisiting each county and region giving my final predictions. I’d still welcome feedback, even at this late stage.

CUMBRIA

Seats: 6
Current Political Makeup: Con 2, Lab 3, LibDem 1
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 1, Lab 4, LibDem 1

1. Barrow and Furness

2010 Result:
Conservative: 16018 (36.3%)
Labour: 21226 (48.1%)
Lib Dem: 4424 (10%)
BNP: 840 (1.9%)
Green: 530 (1.2%)
UKIP: 841 (1.9%)
Independent: 245 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 5208 (11.8%)

Sitting MP: John Woodcock (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

2. Carlisle

2010 Result:
Conservative: 16589 (39.3%)
Labour: 15736 (37.3%)
Lib Dem: 6567 (15.6%)
BNP: 1086 (2.6%)
Green: 614 (1.5%)
UKIP: 969 (2.3%)
TUSC: 376 (0.9%)
Others: 263 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 853 (2%)

Siting MP: John Stevenson (Con)
Prediction: Labour gain

Local election results here have been mixed, with UKIP biting into the Labour vote more than the Tory vote. But I’d still expect Labour to win here, however narrowly.

3. Copeland

2010 Result:
Conservative: 15866 (37.1%)
Labour: 19699 (46%)
Lib Dem: 4365 (10.2%)
BNP: 1474 (3.4%)
Green: 389 (0.9%)
UKIP: 994 (2.3%)
MAJORITY: 3833 (9%)

Sitting MP: Jamie Reed (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

By rights this seat should be far more marginal than it has proved to be.

4. Penrith & the Border

2010 Result:
Conservative: 24071 (53.4%)
Labour: 5834 (12.9%)
Lib Dem: 12830 (28.5%)
BNP: 1093 (2.4%)
UKIP: 1259 (2.8%)
MAJORITY: 11241 (24.9%)

Sitting MP: Rory Stewart (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Safe seat.

5. Westmorland & Lonsdale

2010 Result:
Conservative: 18632 (36.2%)
Labour: 1158 (2.2%)
Lib Dem: 30896 (60%)
UKIP: 801 (1.6%)
MAJORITY: 12264 (23.8%)

Sitting MP: Tim Farron (LibDem)
Prediction: LibDem hold

How this went seat went LibDem in the first place is testament to Tim Farron’s campaigning ability. He’s one of the few LibDems certain to be re-elected.

6. Workington

2010 Result:
Conservative: 13290 (33.9%)
Labour: 17865 (45.5%)
Lib Dem: 5318 (13.5%)
BNP: 1496 (3.8%)
UKIP: 876 (2.2%)
English Dem: 414 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 4575 (11.7%)

Sitting MP: Tony Cunningham (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Relatively safe Labour seat.

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE