Back in January I predicted the outcome of the General Election, seat by seat. Since then, I have done more research and altered some of the predictions taking into account various issues including new updated constituency polls by Lord Ashcroft. Over the next ten days I will be revisiting each county and region giving my final predictions. I’d still welcome feedback, even at this late stage.
CHESHIRE
Seats: 11
Current Political Makeup: Con 8, Lab 3
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 5, Lab 6
Final Prediction: Unchanged
1. City of Chester
2010 Result:
Conservative: 18995 (40.6%)
Labour: 16412 (35.1%)
Lib Dem: 8930 (19.1%)
Green: 535 (1.1%)
UKIP: 1225 (2.6%)
English Dem: 594 (1.3%)
Independent: 99 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 2583 (5.5%)
Sitting MP: Stephen Mosley (Con)
Prediction: Labour gain
This seat swings with the political wind. I think the UKIP intervention will be decisive here and they will take more votes from the Tories than Labour.
2. Congleton
2010 Result:
Conservative: 23250 (45.8%)
Labour: 8747 (17.2%)
Lib Dem: 16187 (31.9%)
UKIP: 2147 (4.2%)
Independent: 276 (0.5%)
Others: 173 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 7063 (13.9%)
Sitting MP: Fiona Bruce (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold
Safe seat.
3. Crewe & Nantwich
2010 Result:
Conservative: 23420 (45.8%)
Labour: 17374 (34%)
Lib Dem: 7656 (15%)
BNP: 1043 (2%)
UKIP: 1414 (2.8%)
Independent: 177 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 6046 (11.8%)
Sitting MP: Edward Timpson (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold
Edward Timpson has cemented himself into this seat since he won the byelection and I think Labour are going to find it very hard to shift him.
4. Eddisbury
2010 Result:
Conservative: 23472 (51.7%)
Labour: 9794 (21.6%)
Lib Dem: 10217 (22.5%)
UKIP: 1931 (4.3%)
MAJORITY: 13255 (29.2%)
Sitting MP: Stephen O’Brien (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold
Safe seat.
5. Ellesmere Port & Neston
2010 Result:
Conservative: 15419 (34.9%)
Labour: 19750 (44.6%)
Lib Dem: 6663 (15.1%)
UKIP: 1619 (3.7%)
Independent: 782 (1.8%)
MAJORITY: 4331 (9.8%)
Sitting MP: Andrew Miller (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
6. Halton
2010 Result:
Conservative: 8339 (20.2%)
Labour: 23843 (57.7%)
Lib Dem: 5718 (13.8%)
BNP: 1563 (3.8%)
Green: 647 (1.6%)
UKIP: 1228 (3%)
MAJORITY: 15504 (37.5%)
Sitting MP: Derek Twigg (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Safe seat.
7. Macclesfield
2010 Result:
Conservative: 23503 (47%)
Labour: 10164 (20.3%)
Lib Dem: 11544 (23.1%)
Green: 840 (1.7%)
UKIP: 1418 (2.8%)
Others: 2590 (5.2%)
MAJORITY: 11959 (23.9%)
Sitting MP: David Rutley (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold
Safe seat.
8. Tatton
2010 Result:
Conservative: 24687 (54.6%)
Labour: 7803 (17.3%)
Lib Dem: 10200 (22.6%)
Independent: 2243 (5%)
Others: 298 (0.7%)
MAJORITY: 14487 (32%)
Sitting MP: George Osborne (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold
Safe seat.
9. Warrington North
2010 Result:
Conservative: 13364 (30.2%)
Labour: 20135 (45.5%)
Lib Dem: 9196 (20.8%)
Independent: 1516 (3.4%)
MAJORITY: 6771 (15.3%)
Sitting MP: Helen Jones (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Relatively safe seat.
10. Warrington South
2010 Result:
Conservative: 19641 (35.8%)
Labour: 18088 (33%)
Lib Dem: 15094 (27.5%)
Green: 427 (0.8%)
UKIP: 1624 (3%)
MAJORITY: 1553 (2.8%)
Sitting MP: David Mowat (Con)
Prediction: Labour gain
David Mowat’s fortunes rest entirely on who attracts the LibDem vote – him or his Labour opponent. You’d have to think the latter was more likely to.
11. Weaver Vale
2010 Result:
Conservative: 16953 (38.5%)
Labour: 15962 (36.3%)
Lib Dem: 8196 (18.6%)
BNP: 1063 (2.4%)
Green: 338 (0.8%)
UKIP: 1018 (2.3%)
Independent: 270 (0.6%)
Others: 190 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 991 (2.3%)
Sitting MP: Graham Evans (Con)
Prediction: Labour gain
Ditto Warrington South.
If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE
