Back in January I predicted the outcome of the General Election, seat by seat. Since then, I have done more research and altered some of the predictions taking into account various issues including new updated constituency polls by Lord Ashcroft. Over the next ten days I will be revisiting each county and region giving my final predictions. I’d still welcome feedback, even at this late stage.

MERSEYSIDE

Seats: 15
Current Political Makeup: Con 1, Lab 13, LibDem 1
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 2, Lab 13
Final Prediction: Con 1, Lab 13, LibDem 1

1. Birkenhead

2010 Result:
Conservative: 6687 (18.9%)
Labour: 22082 (62.5%)
Lib Dem: 6554 (18.6%)
MAJORITY: 15395 (43.6%)

Sitting MP: Frank Field (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

2. Bootle

2010 Result:
Conservative: 3678 (8.9%)
Labour: 27426 (66.4%)
Lib Dem: 6245 (15.1%)
BNP: 942 (2.3%)
UKIP: 2514 (6.1%)
TUSC: 472 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 21181 (51.3%)

Sitting MP: Joe Benton (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

3. Garston & Halewood

2010 Result:
Conservative: 6908 (16.1%)
Labour: 25493 (59.5%)
Lib Dem: 8616 (20.1%)
UKIP: 1540 (3.6%)
Respect: 268 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 16877 (39.4%)

Sitting MP: Maria Eagle (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

4. Knowsley

2010 Result:
Conservative: 4004 (9%)
Labour: 31650 (70.9%)
Lib Dem: 5964 (13.4%)
BNP: 1895 (4.2%)
UKIP: 1145 (2.6%)
MAJORITY: 25686 (57.5%)

Sitting MP: George Howarth (Lab)
Prediction: :Labour hold

Safe seat.

5. Liverpool Riverside

2010 Result:
Conservative: 4243 (10.9%)
Labour: 22998 (59.3%)
Lib Dem: 8825 (22.7%)
BNP: 706 (1.8%)
Green: 1355 (3.5%)
UKIP: 674 (1.7%)
MAJORITY: 14173 (36.5%)

Sitting MP: Louise Ellman (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

6. Liverpool Walton

2010 Result:
Conservative: 2241 (6.5%)
Labour: 24709 (72%)
Lib Dem: 4891 (14.2%)
BNP: 1104 (3.2%)
UKIP: 898 (2.6%)
TUSC: 195 (0.6%)
Others: 297 (0.9%)
MAJORITY: 19818 (57.7%)

Sitting MP: Steve Rotheram (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

7. Liverpool Wavertree

2010 Result:
Conservative: 2830 (7.5%)
Labour: 20132 (53.1%)
Lib Dem: 12965 (34.2%)
BNP: 150 (0.4%)
Green: 598 (1.6%)
UKIP: 890 (2.3%)
Independent: 149 (0.4%)
Others: 200 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 7167 (18.9%)

Sitting MP: Luciana Berger (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

8. Liverpool West Derby

2010 Result:
Conservative: 3311 (9.3%)
Labour: 22953 (64.1%)
Lib Dem: 4486 (12.5%)
UKIP: 1093 (3.1%)
Liberal: 3327 (9.3%)
Others: 614 (1.7%)
MAJORITY: 18467 (51.6%)

Sitting MP: Stephen Twigg (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

9. Sefton Central

2010 Result:
Conservative: 16445 (33.9%)
Labour: 20307 (41.9%)
Lib Dem: 9656 (19.9%)
UKIP: 2055 (4.2%)
MAJORITY: 3862 (8%)

Sitting MP: Bill Esterson (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Probably an increased majority.

10. Southport

2010 Result:
Conservative: 15683 (35.8%)
Labour: 4116 (9.4%)
Lib Dem: 21707 (49.6%)
UKIP: 2251 (5.1%)
MAJORITY: 6024 (13.8%)

Sitting MP: John Pugh (LibDem)
Prediction: Conservative gain
Revised Prediction: LibDem hold

This seat has alternated between the LibDems and Conservatives for years, although the last time the Tories won it was in 1992. Labour are nowhere here. UPDATE: I’ve changed my mind on this. I had missed the Ashcroft poll, which is fairly conclusive, with the LibDems on 37 and the Tories trailing badly on 24.

11. St Helens North

2010 Result:
Conservative: 9940 (22.3%)
Labour: 23041 (51.7%)
Lib Dem: 8992 (20.2%)
UKIP: 2100 (4.7%)
Others: 483 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 13101 (29.4%)

Sitting MP: Dave Watts (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

12. St Helens South & Whiston

2010 Result:
Conservative: 8209 (17.8%)
Labour: 24364 (52.9%)
Lib Dem: 10242 (22.2%)
BNP: 2040 (4.4%)
UKIP: 1226 (2.7%)
MAJORITY: 14122 (30.6%)

Sitting MP: Shaun Woodward (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

13. Wallasey

2010 Result:
Conservative: 13071 (31.4%)
Labour: 21578 (51.8%)
Lib Dem: 5693 (13.7%)
UKIP: 1205 (2.9%)
Independent: 107 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 8507 (20.4%)

Sitting MP: Angela Eagle (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat

14. Wirral South

2010 Result:
Conservative: 15745 (39.5%)
Labour: 16276 (40.8%)
Lib Dem: 6611 (16.6%)
UKIP: 1274 (3.2%)
MAJORITY: 531 (1.3%)

Sitting MP: Alison McGovern (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Labour just held on to this seat last time. If the LibDem vote goes their way they will do so again.

15. Wirral West

2010 Result:
Conservative: 16726 (42.5%)
Labour: 14290 (36.3%)
Lib Dem: 6630 (16.8%)
UKIP: 899 (2.3%)
Independent: 506 (1.3%)
Others: 321 (0.8%)
MAJORITY: 2436 (6.2%)

Sitting MP: Esther McVey (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Liverpool Labour are determined to win this seat back, but the Ashcroft poll has Esther McVey only one point behind, which surely has to be encouraging for her. I reckon she’ll pull it off, but there may be only a few hundred votes in it.

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE