APOLOGIES, IT SEEMS I FORGOT TO LIST MY FINAL BIRMINGHAM PREDICTIONS. HERE THEY ARE!

Back in January I predicted the outcome of the General Election, seat by seat. Since then, I have done more research and altered some of the predictions taking into account various issues including new updated constituency polls by Lord Ashcroft. Over the next ten days I will be revisiting each county and region giving my final predictions. I’d still welcome feedback, even at this late stage.

BIRMINGHAM

Seats: 9
Current Political Makeup: Lab 8, LibDem 1
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Lab 9
Final Prediction: Unchanged

1. Birmingham Edgbaston

2010 Result:
Conservative: 15620 (37.6%)
Labour: 16894 (40.6%)
Lib Dem: 6387 (15.4%)
BNP: 1196 (2.9%)
Green: 469 (1.1%)
UKIP: 732 (1.8%)
Christian: 127 (0.3%)
Others: 146 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 1274 (3.1%)

Sitting MP: Gisela Stuart (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

This is by no means a certain Labour hold. If UKIP eats into the Labour vote, the Tories may yet take this seat. UPDATE: I’m told UKIP are making headway in the whote working class area of Bartley Green. Could that help the Tory Dr Luke Evans slip through the middle?

2. Birmingham Erdington

2010 Result:
Conservative: 11592 (32.6%)
Labour: 14869 (41.8%)
Lib Dem: 5742 (16.2%)
BNP: 1815 (5.1%)
UKIP: 842 (2.4%)
Christian: 217 (0.6%)
Independent: 240 (0.7%)
Others: 229 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 3277 (9.2%)

Sitting MP: Jack Dromey (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Relatively safe seat.

3. Birmingham Hall Green

2010 Result:
Conservative: 7320 (15%)
Labour: 16039 (32.9%)
Lib Dem: 11988 (24.6%)
UKIP: 950 (1.9%)
Respect: 12240 (25.1%)
Independent: 190 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 3799 (7.8%)

Sitting MP: Rodger Godsiff (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

If Respect had played their cards better, they could have been contenders here in 2015. But they haven’t.

4. Birmingham Hodge Hill

2010 Result:
Conservative: 4936 (11.6%)
Labour: 22077 (52%)
Lib Dem: 11775 (27.7%)
BNP: 2333 (5.5%)
UKIP: 714 (1.7%)
Others: 637 (1.5%)
MAJORITY: 10302 (24.3%)

Sitting MP: Liam Byrne (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

5. Birmingham Ladywood

2010 Result:
Conservative: 4277 (11.9%)
Labour: 19950 (55.7%)
Lib Dem: 9845 (27.5%)
Green: 859 (2.4%)
UKIP: 902 (2.5%)
MAJORITY: 10105 (28.2%)

Sitting MP: Shabana Mahmood (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

6. Birmingham Northfield

2010 Result:
Conservative: 14059 (33.6%)
Labour: 16841 (40.3%)
Lib Dem: 6550 (15.7%)
BNP: 2290 (5.5%)
Green: 406 (1%)
UKIP: 1363 (3.3%)
Others: 305 (0.7%)
MAJORITY: 2782 (6.7%)

Sitting MP: Richard Burden (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

This used to be a Conservative seat and it’s conceivable it could be again. But not in 2015, I suspect, depending on where the LibDem vote goes. UPDATE: I am told CCHQ have been impressed by the Tory candidate here and are thowing more support here than any other Birmingham seat.

7. Birmingham Perry Bar

2010 Result:
Conservative: 8960 (21.3%)
Labour: 21142 (50.3%)
Lib Dem: 9234 (22%)
UKIP: 1675 (4%)
Christian: 507 (1.2%)
Others: 527 (1.3%)
MAJORITY: 11908 (28.3%)

Sitting MP: Khalid Mahmood (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

8. Birmingham Selly Oak

2010 Result:
Conservative: 14468 (31.1%)
Labour: 17950 (38.5%)
Lib Dem: 10371 (22.3%)
BNP: 1820 (3.9%)
Green: 664 (1.4%)
UKIP: 1131 (2.4%)
Christian: 159 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 3482 (7.5%)

Sitting MP: Stephen McCabe (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Once held by the Tory Anthony Beaumont-Darke it doesn’t look as if this will return to the Tory fold any time soon.

9. Birmingham Yardley

2010 Result:
Conservative: 7836 (19.2%)
Labour: 13160 (32.2%)
Lib Dem: 16162 (39.6%)
BNP: 2153 (5.3%)
UKIP: 1190 (2.9%)
Others: 349 (0.9%)
MAJORITY: 3002 (7.3%)

Sitting MP: John Hemming (LibDem)
Prediction: Labour gain

Hemming is a maverick and I wouldn’t bet against him pulling off a surprise, but if Labour is to form a government it’s this kind of seat they need to take back.

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE