Conservative Politics

Conservative Leadership Runners & Riders: STEPHEN CRABB

30 Jun 2016 at 14:00

FULL NAME: Stephen Crabb
BORN: January 20 1973, Inverness
AGE: 43
EDUCATION: University of Bristol, London Business School
STATUS: Married to Beatrice Monnier, 2 children
FIRST ELECTED: 2005
CONSTITUENCY: Preseli, Pembrokeshire
EXPERIENCE: Junior whip 2010-2012, Welsh Office Minister 2012-14, Secretary of State for Wales 2014-16, Secretary of State for Work & Pensions 2016-
OTHER EXPERIENCE: 199506 Intern, Christian Action Research & Education, 1996-8 National Council for Voluntary Youth Services, 1998-2002 London Chamber of Commerce, 2002-5 Marketing Consultant.
MOST LIKELY TO SAY: “I grew up in a council house and had a state school education.”
LEAST LIKELY TO SAY: “No Boris, whatever job you offer me I still won’t stand down in your favour.”
FAMOUS QUOTES: “Worklessness and dependency is a curse on the Welsh economy.” “When people talk about hard choices between heating or eating or buying clothes, I know what it’s like.” "The huge strategic error that Labour made was equating compassion with how high your spending figures were for welfare.”
STRENGTHS: Fresh face, Blank canvas, Speaking style, Back story
WEAKNESSES: Bearded face, Relatively unknown, alleged controversial views on gay issues
MAIN ADVISERS: Unknown
MAIN ALLIES: Jeremy Wright, Sajid Javid,
LIKELY TO STAND: 100%, already announced
LADBROKES ODDS: 8/1

SCOREBOARD

Experience: 4.5
Negotiating Skills: 5.0
Star Quality: 4.5
Likeability: 5.9
Ability to take the fight to Labour: 5.5
Economic Competence: 6.3
Intellectual Capacity: 5.6
Ability to Unite the Country: 5.6
Ability to Unite the Party: 5.9
Integrity: 5.8
Courage: 4.5
Leadership: 4.9
National Appeal: 5.3
International Experience: 3.2

Stephen Crabb scores relatively lowly in all categories. He only beats Theresa May on likeability. Against Andrea Leadsom he wins in no category. Against Boris Johnson he is tied on ability to unite the party,

OVERALL RATING OUT OF 100: 51.8

MY ANALYSIS

Stephen Crabb is a surprise entrant into this leadership contest. Some say he’s just putting down a marker, but in his own mind he will be in it to win it. There’s a touch of the John Majors about him, and not just because of his background. He’s an engaging politician, not afraid to display a sense of humour and to indulge in self-deprecation.

His challenge is to move beyond his backstory. He can’t just run as a Sadiq Khan soundalike, and count on his council house background to win it for him. There needs to be more to him than that. His launch pitch was quite alluring, but there were too many soundbites and now he has to provide the policy ballast to back them up. Trouble is, he’s only got a few days to do it.

He also remains dogged by his association with a group which advocates ‘gay cure’ therapy. No one can find a quote where he’s ever shown any sympathy for this, but gay pressure groups eagerly point out his vote against equal marriage. This won’t cost him much support in the parliamentary party, but if he gets to the final two, then it’s something he will have to address.

He is a devout Christian and not afraid to talk about it. This will no doubt make some people uncomfortable, but it highlights that he is very different to the rest of the lineup.
So far he has 20 declared MPs supporting him – not a bad total at all. This might indicate a final vote of 40 or 50, which would be very encouraging for him. His initial aim must be to knock Liam Fox off the ballot in the first round of voting – ironic, given that he was a supporter of Fox in 2005. But if he is to continue into the second round he will need to be confident of coming third in the next round. Otherwise there would be little point in continuing.

My other profiles can be read by clicking on these links…

Theresa May
Andrea Leadsom

Coming next: Dr Liam Fox

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