General Election Predictions

General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 1. Essex

20 Apr 2017 at 22:50

Essex

Seats: 18
Current Political Makeup: Con 17, Independent 1
*Prediction: Con 18

1. Basildon & Billericay

2010 Result:
Conservative: 21922 (52.7%)
Labour: 9584 (23.1%)
Lib Dem: 6538 (15.7%)
BNP: 1934 (4.7%)
UKIP: 1591 (3.8%)
MAJORITY: 12338 (29.7%)

2015 Result:
Conservative John Baron 22,668 52.7 −0.1
Labour Gavin Callaghan 10,186 23.7 +0.6
UKIP George Konstantinidis 8,538 19.8 +16.0
Liberal Democrat Martin Thompson 1,636 3.8 −11.9
Majority 12,482 29.0 −0.8
Turnout 43,028 62.9 −0.7
Conservative hold Swing −0.4

Sitting MP: John Baron (Con)
Prediction: Definite Conservative Hold

2. Braintree

2010 Result:
Conservative: 25901 (52.6%)
Labour: 9780 (19.9%)
Lib Dem: 9247 (18.8%)
BNP: 1080 (2.2%)
Green: 718 (1.5%)
UKIP: 2477 (5%)
MAJORITY: 16121 (32.8%)

2015 Result:
Conservative James Cleverly 27,071 53.8 +1.2
UKIP Richard Bingley 9,461 18.8 +13.8
Labour Malcolm Fincken 9,296 18.5 -1.4
Liberal Democrat Matthew Klesel 2,488 4.9 -13.8
Green Paul Jeater 1,564 3.1 +1.7
Independent Toby Pereira 295 0.6 N/A
BNP Paul Hooks 108 0.2 -2.0
Majority 17,610 35.0 +2.2
Turnout 50,283 68.4 -0.7

Sitting MP: James Cleverly (Con)
Prediction: Definite Conservative hold

3. Brentwood & Ongar

2010 Result:
Conservative: 28793 (56.9%)
Labour: 4992 (9.9%)
Lib Dem: 11872 (23.5%)
BNP: 1447 (2.9%)
Green: 584 (1.2%)
UKIP: 2037 (4%)
English Dem: 491 (1%)
Independent: 263 (0.5%)
Others: 113 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 16921 (33.4%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Eric Pickles 30,534 58.8 +1.9
UKIP Mick McGough 8,724 16.8 +12.8
Labour Liam Preston 6,492 12.5 +2.6
Liberal Democrat David Kendall 4,577 8.8 −14.6
Green Reza Hossain6 1,397 2.7 +1.5
English Democrat Robin Tilbrook 173 0.3 −0.7
Majority 21,810 42.0 +8.6
Turnout 51,897 71.6 −0.3
Conservative hold Swing −5.4

Sitting MP: Eric Pickles (Con)
Prediction: Definite Conservative hold

4. Castle Point

2010 Result:
Conservative: 19806 (44%)
Labour: 6609 (14.7%)
Lib Dem: 4232 (9.4%)
BNP: 2205 (4.9%)
Others: 12174 (27%)
MAJORITY: 7632 (17%)*

Conservative Rebecca Harris 23,112 50.9 +6.9
UKIP Jamie Huntman 10 14,178 31.2 +31.2
Labour Joe Cooke 11 6,283 13.8 −0.9
Green Dom Ellis12 1,076 2.4 +2.4
Liberal Democrat Sereena Davey 13 801 1.8 −7.6
Majority 8,934 19.7 +2.7
Turnout 45,450 66.7 −0.2

Sitting MP: Rebecca Harris (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

I wavered on this one last time and in the end predicted a narrow UKIP win. How wrong could I be?! I won’t be making that mistake this time. Rebecca Harris should increase her majority.

5. Chelmsford
2010 Result:
Conservative: 25207 (46.2%)
Labour: 5980 (11%)
Lib Dem: 20097 (36.8%)
BNP: 899 (1.6%)
Green: 476 (0.9%)
UKIP: 1527 (2.8%)
English Dem: 254 (0.5%)
Others: 153 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 5110 (9.4%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Simon Burns 27,732 51.5 +5.4
Labour Chris Vince 7 9,482 17.6 +6.7
UKIP Mark Gough8 7,652 14.2 +11.4
Liberal Democrat Stephen Robinson 6,394 11.9 −24.9
Green Angela Thomson 1,892 3.5 +2.6
Liberal Henry Boyle 665 1.2 +1.2
Majority 18,250 35.9
Turnout 53,817 68.5

Sitting MP: Simon Burns (Con)
Prediction: Definite Conservative Hold

Chelmsford has been a LibDem target all through my adult life. Yet they’ve never quite managed to unseat either Norman St John Stevas or Simon Burns. Just when they looked as if they might, they were thwarted by boundary changes. Simon Burns trebled his majority in 2010 and although he is standing down, it would take a political earthquake for this seat to go LibDem.

6. Clacton

2010 Result:
Conservative: 22867 (53%)
Labour: 10799 (25%)
Lib Dem: 5577 (12.9%)
BNP: 1975 (4.6%)
Green: 535 (1.2%)
Independent: 292 (0.7%)
Others: 1078 (2.5%)
MAJORITY: 12068 (28%)

By-Election Result (Oct 2014)
UKIP: 21113 (59.7%)
Conservative: 8709 (24.6%)
Labour: 3957 (11.2%)
Green: 688 (1.9%
Lib Dem: 483 (1.2%)
Others: 388 (1.2%)
BNP: 1975 (4.6%)
Green: 535 (1.2%)
Independent: 292 (0.7%)
Others: 1078 (2.5%)
MAJORITY: 12068 (28%)

2015 Result:
UKIP Douglas Carswell 19,642 44.4 N/A
Conservative Giles Watling 16,205 36.7 -16.3
Labour Tim Young 6,364 14.4 -10.6
Green Chris Southall11 1,184 2.7 +1.5
Liberal Democrat David Grace12 812 1.8 -11.1
Majority 3,437 7.8 N/A
Turnout 44,207 64.1 -0.1

Sitting MP: Douglas Carswell (Independent)
Prediction: Conservative gain

With Douglas Carswell standing down and Nigel Farage ruling himself out, this seat will now inevitably return to the Tories. Arron Banks may well stand but he should save his money.

7. Colchester

2010 Result:
Conservative: 15169 (32.9%)
Labour: 5680 (12.3%)
Lib Dem: 22151 (48%)
BNP: 705 (1.5%)
Green: 694 (1.5%)
UKIP: 1350 (2.9%)
English Dem: 335 (0.7%)
Others: 55 (0.1%)
MAJORITY: 6982 (15.1%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Will Quince 8 18,919 38.9 +6.1
Liberal Democrat Bob Russell 8 13,344 27.5 −20.5
Labour Jordan Newell 8 7,852 16.2 +3.8
UKIP John Pitts9 5,870 12.1 +9.2
Green Mark Goacher 10 2,499 5.1 +3.6
Christian Peoples Ken Scrimshaw11 109 0.2 +0.2
Majority 5,575 11.5
Turnout 48,593 65.5 +3.2
Conservative gain from Liberal Democrat Swing 7.2

Sitting MP: Will Quince (Con)
Prediction: Probable Conservative hold

Bob Russell had held this seat for the LibDems for 18 years until he was surprisingly usurped by Will Quince in 2015. Given that the seat voted 53-47 to leave the EU the LibDems may not be hopeful of winning this seat back. Quince has proved to be an assiduous constituency campaigner, a worthy successor to Sir Bob. But if the LibDems are to make a meaningful breakthrough it is in seats like this that they need to make gains. The only way they will do that is if they can squeeze back the Labour vote..

8. Epping Forest

2010 Result:
Conservative: 25148 (54%)
Labour: 6641 (14.3%)
Lib Dem: 10017 (21.5%)
BNP: 1982 (4.3%)
Green: 659 (1.4%)
UKIP: 1852 (4%)
English Dem: 285 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 15131 (32.5%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Eleanor Laing5 27,027 54.8 +0.8
UKIP Andrew Smith5 9,049 18.3 +14.4
Labour Gareth Barrett 7,962 16.1 +1.9
Liberal Democrat Jon Whitehouse6 3,448 7.0 −14.5
Green Anna Widdup 1,782 3.6 +2.2
YPP Mark Wadsworth 80 0.2 +0.2
Majority 17,978 36.4 +3.9
Turnout 49,348 67.1 +2.6

Sitting MP: Eleanor Laing (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

9. Harlow

2010 Result:
Conservative: 19691 (44.9%)
Labour: 14766 (33.7%)
Lib Dem: 5990 (13.7%)
BNP: 1739 (4%)
UKIP: 1591 (3.6%)
Christian: 101 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 4925 (11.2%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Robert Halfon 21,623 48.9 +4.0
Labour Suzy Stride 13,273 30.0 −3.7
UKIP Sam Stopplecamp 7,208 16.3 +12.7
Green Murray Sackwild 954 2.2 N/A
Liberal Democrat Geoffrey Seeff 904 2.0 −11.6
TUSC David Brown 174 0.4 N/A
English Democrat Eddy Butler 115 0.3 N/A
Majority 8,350 18.9 +7.7
Turnout 44,251 65.1 ±0.0

Sitting MP: Robert Halfon (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

A massive result for Rob Halfon last time, and it’s likely he will increase his majority again in June.

10. Harwich & North Essex

2010 Result:
Conservative: 23001 (46.9%)
Labour: 9774 (19.9%)
Lib Dem: 11554 (23.6%)
BNP: 1065 (2.2%)
Green: 909 (1.9%)
UKIP: 2527 (5.2%)
Independent: 170 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 11447 (23.4%)

Conservative Bernard Jenkin 24,722 51.0 +4.1
Labour Edward Browne5 9,548 19.7 -0.2
UKIP Mark Hughes5 8,464 17.5 +12.3
Liberal Democrat Dominic Graham5 3,576 7.4 -16.2
Green Christopher Flossman 2,122 4.4 +2.5
Majority 15,174 31.3 +7.9
Turnout 48,432 69.9 +0.6

Sitting MP: Bernard Jenkin (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

11. Maldon

2010 Result:
Conservative: 28661 (59.8%)
Labour: 6070 (12.7%)
Lib Dem: 9254 (19.3%)
BNP: 1464 (3.1%)
UKIP: 2446 (5.1%)
MAJORITY: 19407 (40.5%)

2015 Result:
Conservative John Whittingdale 29,112 60.6 +0.8
UKIP Beverley Acevedo15 7,042 14.7 +9.6
Labour Peter Edwards16 5,690 11.8 −0.8
Independent Ken Martin 2,424 5.0 +5.0
Liberal Democrat Zoe O’Connell17 2,157 4.5 −14.8
Green Bob Graves18 1,504 3.1 +3.1
Sustainable Population John Marett 116 0.2 +0.2
Majority 22,070 45.9 +5.4
Turnout 48,045 69.2 −0.4

Sitting MP: John Whittingdale (Con)
Prediction: Definite Conservative hold

12. Rayleigh & Wickford

2010 Result:
Conservative: 30257 (57.8%)
Labour: 7577 (14.5%)
Lib Dem: 7919 (15.1%)
BNP: 2160 (4.1%)
UKIP: 2211 (4.2%)
English Dem: 2219 (4.2%)
MAJORITY: 22338 (42.7%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Mark Francois 29,088 54.7 −3.1
UKIP John Hayter8 11,858 22.3 +18.1
Labour David Hough 6,705 12.6 −1.9
Independent Linda Kendall9 2,418 4.5 N/A
Liberal Democrat Mike Pitt10 1,622 3.0 −12.1
Green Sarah Yapp11 1,529 2.9 N/A
Majority 17,230 32.4
Turnout 53,220 68.3 +2.4

Sitting MP: Mark Francois (Con)
Prediction: Definite Conservative hold

13. Rochford & Southend East

2010 Result:
Conservative: 19509 (46.9%)
Labour: 8459 (20.3%)
Lib Dem: 8084 (19.4%)
BNP: 1856 (4.5%)
Green: 707 (1.7%)
UKIP: 2405 (5.8%)
Independent: 611 (1.5%)
MAJORITY: 11050 (26.5%)

Conservative James Duddridge 20,241 46.4 -0.4
Labour Ian Gilbert 10,765 24.7 +4.4
UKIP Floyd Waterworth8 8,948 20.5 +14.7
Green Simon Cross9 2,195 5.0 +3.3
Liberal Democrat Peter Gwizdala 1,459 3.3 -16.1
Majority 9,476 21.7
Turnout 43,608 60.6

Sitting MP: James Duddridge (Con)
Prediction: Definite Conservative hold

14. Saffron Walden

2010 Result:
Conservative: 30155 (55.5%)
Labour: 5288 (9.7%)
Lib Dem: 14913 (27.4%)
BNP: 1050 (1.9%)
Green: 735 (1.4%)
UKIP: 2228 (4.1%)
MAJORITY: 15242 (28%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Alan Haselhurst 32,926 57.2 +1.7
UKIP Peter Day8 7,935 13.8 +9.7
Labour Jane Berney 6,791 11.8 +2.1
Liberal Democrat Mike Hibbs 6,079 10.6 −16.9
Green Karmel Stannard 2,174 3.8 +2.4
Residents for Uttlesford Heather Asker 1,658 2.9 N/A
Majority 24,991 43.4 +15.4
Turnout 57,563 71.4 -0.2

Sitting MP: Sir Alan Haselhurst (Con)
Prediction: Definite Conservative hold

15. South Basildon & East Thurrock

2010 Result:
Conservative: 19624 (43.9%)
Labour: 13852 (31%)
Lib Dem: 5977 (13.4%)
BNP: 2518 (5.6%)
UKIP: 2639 (5.9%)
Others: 125 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 5772 (12.9%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Stephen Metcalfe 19,788 43.4 -0.5
UKIP Ian Luder 7 12,097 26.5 +20.6
Labour Mike Le-Surf 8 11,493 25.2 -5.8
Liberal Democrat Geoff Williams9 1,356 3.0 -10.4
Independent Kerry Smith10 401 0.9 N/A
Independent None Of The Above X 253 0.6 +0.3
Independent Stuart Hooper11 205 0.4 N/A
Majority 7,692 16.9
Turnout 45,593 64.1
Sitting MP: Stephen Metcalfe (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

16. Southend West

2010 Result:
Conservative: 20086 (46.1%)
Labour: 5850 (13.4%)
Lib Dem: 12816 (29.4%)
BNP: 1333 (3.1%)
Green: 644 (1.5%)
UKIP: 1714 (3.9%)
English Dem: 546 (1.3%)
Independent: 617 (1.4%)
MAJORITY: 7270 (16.7%)

2015 Result:
Conservative David Amess 22,175 49.8 +3.8
Labour Julian Ware-Lane 8,154 18.3 +4.9
UKIP Brian Otridge6 7,803 17.5 +13.6
Liberal Democrat Paul Collins7 4,129 9.3 -20.1
Green Jon Fuller8 2,083 4.7 +3.2
English Democrat Jeremy Moss 165 0.4 -0.9
Majority 14,021 31.5 +14.8
Turnout 44,509 66.6 +1.5

Sitting MP: David Amess (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

17. Thurrock

2010 Result:
Conservative: 16869 (36.8%)
Labour: 16777 (36.6%)
Lib Dem: 4901 (10.7%)
BNP: 3618 (7.9%)
UKIP: 3390 (7.4%)
Christian: 266 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 92 (0.2%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Jackie Doyle-Price 16,692 33.7 −3.1
Labour Polly Billington10 16,156 32.6 −4.0
UKIP Tim Aker11 15,718 31.7 +24.3
Liberal Democrat Rhodri Jamieson-Ball 644 1.3 −9.4
CISTA Jamie Barnes 244 0.5 N/A
Independent Daniel Munyambu 79 0.2 N/A
All People’s Party Aba Kristilolu 31 0.1 N/A
Majority 536 1.1
Turnout 49,564 63.9

Sitting MP: Jackie Doyle-Price (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

I predicted this seat would go UKIP and it very nearly did in 2015. If Nigel Farage had stood here in this election I genuinely think he could have won. But it’s now likely that Jackie Doyle-Price will increase her majority.

18. Witham

2010 Result:
Conservative: 24448 (52.2%)
Labour: 8656 (18.5%)
Lib Dem: 9252 (19.8%)
Green: 1419 (3%)
UKIP: 3060 (6.5%)
MAJORITY: 15196 (32.4%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Priti Patel 27,123 57.5 +5.3
UKIP Garry Cockrill4 7,569 16.0 +9.5
Labour John Clarke 7,467 15.8 −2.7
Liberal Democrat Josephine Hayes5 2,891 6.1 −13.6
Green James Abbott6 2,038 4.3 +1.3
Christian Peoples Doreen Scrimshaw7 80 0.2 N/A
Majority 19,554 41.5 +9.1
Turnout 47,168 70.3 +0.1

Sitting MP: Priti Patel (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

To see the complete list of seat by seat predictions, click HERE

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