General Election Predictions

General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 2. Norfolk

21 Apr 2017 at 22:07

NORFOLK

Seats: 9
Current State of the Parties: Con 7, Labour 1, LibDem 1
Predicted State of the Parties: Con 8, Labour 1

Broadland

2010 Result:
Conservative: 24338 (46.2%)
Labour: 7287 (13.8%)
Lib Dem: 17046 (32.4%)
BNP: 871 (1.7%)
Green: 752 (1.4%)
UKIP: 2382 (4.5%)
MAJORITY: 7292 (13.8%)

2015 result:
Conservative Keith Simpson 26,808 50.5 +4.3
Labour Chris Jones 5 9,970 18.8 +4.9
UKIP Stuart Agnew 5 8,881 16.7 +12.2
Liberal Democrat Steve Riley 5,178 9.8 −22.6
Green Andrew Boswell 2,252 4.2 +2.8
Majority 16,838 31.7 +17.9
Turnout 53,098 71.1 −0.9

Sitting MP: Keith Simpson (Con)
Prediction: Definite Conservative Hold

Great Yarmouth

2010 Result:
Conservative: 18571 (43.1%)
Labour: 14295 (33.2%)
Lib Dem: 6188 (14.4%)
BNP: 1421 (3.3%)
Green: 416 (1%)
UKIP: 2066 (4.8%)
Others: 100 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 4276 (9.9%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Brandon Lewis15 19,089 42.9 -0.2
Labour Lara Norris16 12,935 29.1 -4.1
UKIP Alan Grey17 10,270 23.1 +18.3
Liberal Democrat James Joyce 1,030 2.3 -12.1
Green Harry Webb18 978 2.2 +1.2
CISTA Samuel Townley 167 0.4 +0.4
Majority 6,154 13.8 +3.9
Turnout 44,469 63.7 +2.5

Sitting MP: Brandon Lewis (Con)
Prediction: Narrow Conservative hold

Should be another easy hold for Brandon Lewis. This seat was on UKIP’s target list last time but they failed to come anywhere near. Indeed, they didn’t even come second. It will be interesting to see where their votes go if they lose support. One slight fly in the ointment for Brandon Lewis is that he supported Remain in a very Leave constituency.

Mid Norfolk

2010 Result:
Conservative: 25123 (49.5%)
Labour: 8857 (17.4%)
Lib Dem: 11267 (22.2%)
BNP: 1261 (2.5%)
Green: 1457 (2.9%)
UKIP: 2800 (5.5%)
MAJORITY: 13856 (27.3%)

2015 Result:
Conservative George Freeman6 27,206 52.1 +2.6
UKIP Anna Coke7 9,930 19.0 +13.5
Labour Harry Clarke 9,585 18.4 +0.4
Liberal Democrat Paul Speed8 3,300 6.3 −15.9
Green Simeon Jackson9 2,191 4.2 +1.3
Majority 17,276 33.1 +5.8
Turnout 52,212 67.8 −0.6

Sitting MP: George Freeman (Con)
Prediction: Definite Conservative hold

North Norfolk

2010 Result:
Conservative: 15928 (32.1%)
Labour: 2896 (5.8%)
Lib Dem: 27554 (55.5%)
Green: 508 (1%)
UKIP: 2680 (5.4%)
Independent: 95 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 11626 (23.4%)

2015 Result:
Liberal Democrat Norman Lamb 19,299 39.1 -16.4
Conservative Ann Steward56 15,256 30.9 -1.2
UKIP Michael Baker7 8,328 16.9 +11.5
Labour Denise Burke8 5,043 10.2 +4.4
Green Mike Macartney-Filgate9 1,488 3.0 +2.0
Majority 4,043 8.2
Turnout 49,414 71.7 -1.5

Sitting MP: Norman Lamb (LibDem)
Prediction: Conservative gain

This was the scene of my electoral defenstration in 2005. Despite adverse boundary changes, which took Fakenham out of the seat, Lamb’s majority increased in 2010 to more than 11,000. It was cut in 2015 to a very targetable 4000. The Tory vote has falld by a third since my election in 2005 and it’s clearly gone straight to UKIP. Their candidate last time was a well known local retailer. It’s a very eurosceptic constituency with even many Liberal Democrats voting Leave. Lamb has a big personal vote here, but with UKIP not standing, it would only take half of their 8328 votes to go to the Tory James Wild and Norman Lamb would be out. I had originally put this down as a LibDem hold, but I’ve changed my mind.

Norwich North

2010 Result:
Conservative: 17280 (40.6%)
Labour: 13379 (31.4%)
Lib Dem: 7783 (18.3%)
BNP: 747 (1.8%)
Green: 1245 (2.9%)
UKIP: 1878 (4.4%)
Christian: 118 (0.3%)
Independent: 143 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 3901 (9.2%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Chloe Smith 19,052 43.7 +3.1
Labour Jessica Asato 14,589 33.5 +2.0
UKIP Glenn Tingle 5,986 13.7 +9.3
Green Adrian Holmes 1,939 4.4 +1.5
Liberal Democrat James Wright 1,894 4.3 -13.9
Independent Mick Hardy5 132 0.3 +0.3
Majority 4,463 10.2
Turnout 43,592 66.9 +1.7

Sitting MP: Chloe Smith
Prediction: Conservative hold

This is the seat where I cut my political teeth back in the mid 1980s. It hasn’t changed a lot since then, although there are quite a few new build housing estates. This is another seat which goes with the prevailing political wind. Labour should have regained it last time. They had an energetic candidate in Jess Asato, but in the end Chloe Smith held on easily, as she will this time, I suspect. She was a Remain supporter in a Remain constituency. The LibDems have never had any traction in Norwich North. Their vote totally collapsed last time, and although it can only go up this time, one suspects it won’t be by much.

Norwich South

2010 Result:
Conservative: 10902 (22.9%)
Labour: 13650 (28.7%)
Lib Dem: 13960 (29.4%)
BNP: 697 (1.5%)
Green: 7095 (14.9%)
UKIP: 1145 (2.4%)
Others: 102 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 310 (0.7%)

2015 Result:
Labour Clive Lewis 19,033 39.3 +10.6
Conservative Lisa Townsend 11,379 23.5 +0.6
Green Lesley Grahame 6,749 13.9 -1.0
Liberal Democrat Simon Wright 6,607 13.6 -15.7
UKIP Steve Emmens5 4,539 9.4 +7.0
Class War David Peel 96 0.2 N/A
Independent Cengiz Ceker 60 0.1 N/A
Majority 7,654 15.8
Turnout 48,463 64.7 +0.1

Sitting MP: Clive Lewis
Prediction: Labour hold

Labour won this from the LibDems in 2015 and the LibDems ended up a very poor fourth. Clive Lewis has been quite high profile and the UEA vote should see him win with little difficulty. The Greens always flatter to deceive here. It’s high on their target list but their vote actually went down in 2015.

North West Norfolk

2010 Result:
Conservative: 25916 (54.2%)
Labour: 6353 (13.3%)
Lib Dem: 11106 (23.2%)
BNP: 1839 (3.8%)
Green: 745 (1.6%)
UKIP: 1841 (3.9%)
MAJORITY: 14810 (31%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Henry Bellingham12 24,727 52.2 -2.0
Labour Joanne Rust 10,779 22.8 +9.5
UKIP Richard Toby Coke12 8,412 17.8 +13.9
Green Michael de Whalley13 1,780 3.8 +2.2
Liberal Democrat Hugh Lanham14 1,673 3.5 -19.7
Majority 13,948 29.4 -1.6
Turnout 47,597 65.4 +0.1
Sitting MP: Sir Henry Bellingham (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

South Norfolk

2010 Result:
Conservative: 27133 (49.3%)
Labour: 7252 (13.2%)
Lib Dem: 16193 (29.4%)
BNP: 1086 (2%)
Green: 1000 (1.8%)
UKIP: 2329 (4.2%)
MAJORITY: 10940 (19.9%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Richard Bacon 30,995 54.3 +4.9
Labour Deborah Sacks6 10,502 18.4 +5.2
UKIP Barry Cameron7 7,847 13.7 +9.5
Liberal Democrat Jacky Howe8 4,689 8.2 -21.2
Green Catherine Rowett9 3,090 5.4 +3.6
Majority 20,493 35.9
Turnout 57,123 72.4

Sitting MP: Richard Bacon (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

South West Norfolk

2010 Result:
Conservative: 23753 (48.3%)
Labour: 9119 (18.6%)
Lib Dem: 10613 (21.6%)
BNP: 1774 (3.6%)
Green: 830 (1.7%)
UKIP: 3061 (6.2%)
MAJORITY: 13140 (26.7%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Elizabeth Truss8 25,515 50.9 +2.6
UKIP Paul Smyth9 11,654 23.3 +17.0
Labour Peter Smith8 8,649 17.3 −1.3
Liberal Democrat Rupert Moss-Eccardt10 2,217 4.4 −17.2
Green Sandra Walmsley11 2,075 4.1 +2.5
Majority 13,861 27.7 +1.0
Turnout 50,110 65.1 −1.1
Conservative hold Swing -7.2

Sitting MP: Liz Truss (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Of all the so-called safe Conservative seats in Norfolk, this one that is most volatile. It has seen a huge demographic change in the last 20 years. It almost went Labour in 1997 but Gillian Shephard just held on. UKIP have got a foothold here, but with a split opposition Liz Truss is not under threat.

To see the complete list of seat by seat predictions, click HERE

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