General Election Predictions

General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 3. Cornwall

21 Apr 2017 at 22:51

CORNWALL

Seats: 6
Current Political Makeup: Con 6
Predicted Political Makeup after June 8: Con 6

1. Camborne & Redruth

2010 Result:
Conservative: 15969 (37.6%)
Labour: 6945 (16.3%)
Lib Dem: 15903 (37.4%)
Green: 581 (1.4%)
UKIP: 2152 (5.1%)
Others: 943 (2.2%)
MAJORITY: 66 (0.2%

2015 Result:
Conservative George Eustice 18,452 40.2 +2.6
Labour Michael Foster 11,448 25.0 +8.6
UKIP Bob Smith 6,776 14.8 +9.7
Liberal Democrat Julia Goldsworthy* 5,687 12.4 -25.0
Green Geoff Garbett 2,608 5.7 +4.3
Mebyon Kernow Loveday Jenkin 897 2.0 +0.1
Majority 7,004 15.3 +15.1
Turnout 45,868 68.5 +2.1

Sitting MP: George Eustice (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

2. North Cornwall

2010 Result:
Conservative: 19531 (41.7%)
Labour: 1971 (4.2%)
Lib Dem: 22512 (48.1%)
UKIP: 2300 (4.9%)
Others: 530 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 2981 (6.4%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Scott Mann 21,689 45.0 +3.3
Liberal Democrat Dan Rogerson 15,068 31.2 −16.8
UKIP Julie Lingard 6,121 12.7 +7.8
Labour John Whitby 2,621 5.4 +1.2
Green Amanda Pennington 2,063 4.3 +4.3
Mebyon Kernow Jerry Jefferies 631 1.3 +0.2
Restore the Family John Allman 52 0.1 +0.1
Majority 6,621 13.7
Turnout 48,245 71.8 +3.6

Sitting MP: Scott Mann (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

3. St Austell & Newquay

2010 Result:
Conservative: 18877 (40%)
Labour: 3386 (7.2%)
Lib Dem: 20189 (42.7%)
BNP: 1022 (2.2%)
UKIP: 1757 (3.7%)
Others: 2007 (4.2%)
MAJORITY: 1312 (2.8%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Steve Double 20,250 40.2 +0.2
Liberal Democrat Steve Gilbert 12,077 24.0 -18.8
UKIP David Mathews8 8,503 16.9 +13.2
Labour Deborah Hopkins 5,150 10.2 +3.1
Green Steve Slade 2,318 4.6 N/A
Mebyon Kernow Dick Cole 2,063 4.1 -0.2
Majority 8,173 16.2
Turnout 50,361 65.7 +3.8

Sitting MP: Stephen Double (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

4. St Ives

2010 Result:
Conservative: 17900 (39%)
Labour: 3751 (8.2%)
Lib Dem: 19619 (42.7%)
Green: 1308 (2.8%)
UKIP: 2560 (5.6%)
Others: 783 (1.7%)
MAJORITY: 1719 (3.7%)

2015 Result:
Conservative 18,491 38.3 −0.7
Liberal Democrat 16,022 33.2 −9.6
UKIP 5,720 11.8 +6.3
Labour 4,510 9.3 +1.2
Green 3,051 6.3 +3.5
Mebyon Kernow 518 1.1 +0.2
Majority: 2,469 (5.1%)
Swing: 4.5% from Lib Dem to Con

Sitting MP: Derek Thomas (Con)
Prediction: *Conservative
hold

This is the constituency most likely to go back to the LibDems but Derek Thomas should hold on if he can win the majority of the 2015 Ukip vote.

5. South East Cornwall

2010 Result:
Conservative: 22390 (45.1%)
Labour: 3507 (7.1%)
Lib Dem: 19170 (38.6%)
Green: 826 (1.7%)
UKIP: 3083 (6.2%)
Others: 641 (1.3%)
MAJORITY: 3220 (6.5%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Sheryll Murray 25,516 50.5 +5.4
Liberal Democrat Phil Hutty 8,521 16.9 −21.8
UKIP Bradley Monk 7,698 15.2 +9.0
Labour Declan Lloyd 4,692 9.3 +2.2
Green Martin Corney 2,718 5.4 +3.7
Mebyon Kernow Andrew Long 6 1,003 2.0 +0.7
Independent George Trubody 350 0.7 +0.7
Majority 16,995 33.7 +28.2
Turnout 50,498 71.1 +2.4

Sitting MP: Sheryll Murray (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

6. Truro & Falmouth

2010 Result:
Conservative: 20349 (41.7%)
Labour: 4697 (9.6%)
Lib Dem: 19914 (40.8%)
Green: 858 (1.8%)
UKIP: 1911 (3.9%)
Others: 1039 (2.1%)
MAJORITY: 435 (0.9%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Sarah Newton 22,681 44.0 +2.3
Liberal Democrat Simon Rix 8,681 16.8 -24.0
Labour Stuart Roden7 7,814 15.2 +5.5
UKIP John Hyslop8 5,967 11.6 +7.7
Green Karen Westbrook9 4,483 8.7 +6.9
Independent Loic Rich10 792 1.5 N/A
Mebyon Kernow Stephen Richardson11 563 1.1 -1.0
National Health Action Rik Evans 526 1.0 N/A
Principles of Politics Stanley Guffogg 37 0.1 N/A
Majority 14,000 27.2
Turnout 51,544 70.0 +0.9

Sitting MP: Sarah Newton (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

To see the complete list of seat by seat predictions, click HERE

Share: