General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 4. Somerset

SOMERSET

Seats: 5
Current Political Makeup: Con 5
Predicted Political Makeup after June 8: Con 5

1. Bridgwater & Somerset West

2010 Result:
Conservative: 24675 (45.3%)
Labour: 9332 (17.1%)
Lib Dem: 15426 (28.3%)
BNP: 1282 (2.4%)
Green: 859 (1.6%)
UKIP: 2604 (4.8%)
Independent: 315 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 9249 (17%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Ian Liddell-Grainger 25,020 46.0 +0.7
UKIP Stephen Fitzgerald 10,437 19.2 +14.4
Labour Michael Lerry 9,589 17.6 +0.5
Liberal Democrat Theo Butt Philip⁷ 6,765 12.4 -15.9
Green Julie Harvey-Smith 2,636 4.8 +3.3
Majority 14,583 26.8 +9.8
Turnout 54,447 67.6 -3.6

Sitting MP: Ian Liddell-Grainger
Prediction: Conservative hold

2. Somerton & Frome

2010 Result:
Conservative: 26976 (44.5%)
Labour: 2675 (4.4%)
Lib Dem: 28793 (47.5%)
UKIP: 1932 (3.2%)
Others: 236 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 1817 (3%)

Conservative David Warburton 31,960 53.0 +8.5
Liberal Democrat David Rendel 11,692 19.4 −28.1
UKIP Alan Dimmick⁸ 6,439 10.7 +7.5
Green Theo Simon 5,434 9.0 +9.0
Labour David Oakensen 4,419 7.3 +2.9
Independent Ian Angell 365 0.6 +0.6
Majority 20,268 33.6
Turnout 60,309 72.2 −2.1

Sitting MP: David Warburton (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

An astonishing turaround in 2015 when the Conservatives turned a LibDem majority of 1800 into a Tory majority of more than 20,000. I can’t see any possibility of the LibDems reversing that result.

3. Taunton Deane

2010 Result:
Conservative: 24538 (42.2%)
Labour: 2967 (5.1%)
Lib Dem: 28531 (49.1%)
UKIP: 2114 (3.6%)
MAJORITY: 3993 (6.9%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Rebecca Pow 27,849 48.1 +5.9
Liberal Democrat Rachel Gilmour 12,358 21.3 -27.7
UKIP Laura Bailhache 6,921 12.0 +8.3
Labour Neil Guild 5,347 9.2 +4.1
Green Clive Martin 2,630 4.5 +4.5
Independent Mike Rigby 2,568 4.4 +4.4
TUSC Stephen German 118 0.2 +0.2
Independent Bruce Gauld 96 0.2 +0.2
Majority 15,491 26.8 +19.9
Turnout 57,887 70.7 +0.2
Sitting MP: Rebecca Pow (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Again, a Tory majority which I find difficult to see how it can be reversed. Jeremy Browne’s old seat.

4. Wells

2010 Result:
Conservative: 23760 (42.5%)
Labour: 4198 (7.5%)
Lib Dem: 24560 (44%)
BNP: 1004 (1.8%)
Green: 631 (1.1%)
UKIP: 1711 (3.1%)
MAJORITY: 800 (1.4%)

2015 Result:
Conservative James Heappey 26,247 46.1 +3.6
Liberal Democrat Tessa Munt 18,662 32.8 −11.2
UKIP Helen Hims¹⁰ 5,644 9.9 +6.9
Labour Chris Inchley 3,780 6.6 −0.9
Green Jon Cousins 2,331 4.1 +3.0
Independent Paul Arnold 83 0.1 +0.1
Birthday Dave Dobbs 81 0.1 +0.1
Independent Gypsy Watkins¹¹ 76 0.1 + 0.1
Majority 7,585 13.3
Turnout 56,904 71.7

Sitting MP: James Heapey (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

If the LibDems are to make any gains in Somerset, the second most likely one is Wells. Having said that James Heappy will expect to eat into the Tory vote. Tessa Munt is standing again and she is not to be underestimated. She’s a good campaigner. However, I don’t see an upset here.

5. Yeovil

2010 Result:
Conservative: 18807 (32.9%)
Labour: 2991 (5.2%)
Lib Dem: 31843 (55.7%)
BNP: 1162 (2%)
UKIP: 2357 (4.1%)
MAJORITY: 13036 (22.8%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Marcus Fysh 24,158 42.5 +9.6
Liberal Democrat David Laws 18,865 33.1 −22.6
UKIP Simon Smedley⁹ 7,646 13.4 +9.3
Labour Sheena King 4,053 7.1 +1.9
Green Emily McIvor 2,191 3.8 n/a
Majority 5,293 9.3
Turnout 56,933 69.1

Sitting MP: Marcus Fysh (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

David Laws had a 13,000 majority. He’s not restanding having lost a 13,000 majority in 2015. As in Taunton Deane there’s a UKIP vote to eat into here, but conversely there’s also more of a Labour vote for the LibDems to attract here. I still believe this will be a Tory hold. UPDATE 24/4 The resignation of LibDem candidate Daisy Benson is a big blow to LibDem hopes here. She has been energetic but says she cannot stand because she’s in the middle of buying a house. Odd.

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE