General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 5: Wales - Gwynedd & Powys

Gwynedd

Seats: 3
Current Political Makeup: Lab 1, Plaid Cymru 2
Predicted Political Makeup after June 8: Plaid Cymru 3

1. Arfon

2010 Result:
Conservative: 4416 (16.9%)
Labour: 7928 (30.4%)
Lib Dem: 3666 (14.1%)
Plaid Cymru: 9383 (36%)
UKIP: 685 (2.6%)
MAJORITY: 1455 (5.6%)

2015 Result:
Plaid Cymru Hywel Williams 11,790 43.9 +7.9
Labour Alun Pugh 8,122 30.3 -0.1
Conservative Anwen Barry ⁸ 3,521 13.1 −3.8
UKIP Simon Wall 2,277 8.5 +5.9
Liberal Democrat Mohammed Shultan 718 2.7 -11.4
Socialist Labour Kathrine Jones 409 1.5 n/a
Majority 3,668 13.7 +8.1

Leave vote 43%

Sitting MP: Hywel Williams (PC)
Prediction: Plaid Cymru hold

2. Dwyfor Meironnydd

2010 Result:
Conservative: 6447 (22.3%)
Labour: 4021 (13.9%)
Lib Dem: 3538 (12.2%)
Plaid Cymru: 12814 (44.3%)
UKIP: 776 (2.7%)
Independent: 1310 (4.5%)
MAJORITY: 6367 (22%)

2015 Result:
Plaid Cymru Liz Saville-Roberts 11,811 40.9 −3.5
Conservative Neil Fairlamb 6,550 22.7 +0.4
Labour Mary Clarke 3,904 13.5 −0.4
UKIP Christopher Gillibrand⁵ 3,126 10.8 +8.1
Independent Louise Hughes 1,388 4.8 +0.3
Liberal Democrat Steven Churchman 1,153 4.0 −8.3
Green Marc Fothergill 981 3.4 n/a
Majority 5,261 18.2 −3.8
Turnout 28,913 65.1 +1.4

Leave vote 55.7%

Sitting MP: Liz Saville-Roberts (PC)
Prediction: Plaid Cymru hold

The Plaid result dropped here last time, presumably because the sitting MR Elfin Llwyd had a large personal vote. If the Tories can pick up votes from UKIP and Labour this could become a highly marginal seat, especially given its high Leave vote in the referendum.

3. Ynys Mon

2010 Result:
Conservative: 7744 (22.5%)
Labour: 11490 (33.4%)
Lib Dem: 2592 (7.5%)
Plaid Cymru: 9029 (26.2%)
UKIP: 1201 (3.5%)
Christian: 163 (0.5%)
Independent: 2225 (6.5%)
MAJORITY: 2461 (7.1%)

2015 Result:
Labour Albert Owen 10,871 31.1 −2.2
Plaid Cymru John Rowlands 10,642 30.5 +4.3
Conservative Michelle Willis 7,393 21.2 −1.3
UKIP Nathan Gill 5,121 14.7 +11.2
Liberal Democrat Mark Rosenthal⁸ 751 2.2 −5.4
Socialist Labour Liz Screen 148 0.4 N/A
Majority 229 0.7 −6.4
Turnout 34,926 69.9 +1.1

Leave vote: 52.97%

Sitting MP: Albert Owen (Lab)
Prediction: Plaid Cymru gain

This seat has been held by the Tories, Labour and Plaid in the last thirty years. In 1992 and 1997 it went Plaid but since then the Labour majority has been increasing. This came to a shattering stop in 2015 when Albert Owen only held the seat by 228 votes. In my opinion he will not hold onto his seat and it will either go to Plaid or to the Tories. If the Tories can take 3,000 votes from UKIP and eat into the Labour vote, it’s very possible they can take the seat. However, I’m calling it for Plaid at the moment.

Powys

Seats: 2
Current Political Makeup: Con 2
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 2

1. Brecon & Radnorshire

2010 Result:
Conservative: 14182 (36.5%)
Labour: 4096 (10.5%)
Lib Dem: 17929 (46.2%)
Plaid Cymru: 989 (2.5%)
Green: 341 (0.9%)
UKIP: 876 (2.3%)
Christian: 222 (0.6%)
Others: 210 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 3747 (9.6%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Christopher Davies 16,453 41.1 +4.5
Liberal Democrat Roger Williams 11,351 28.3 −17.8
Labour Matthew Dorrance 5,904 14.7 +4.2
UKIP Darran Thomas ¹⁰ 3,338 8.3 +6.1
Plaid Cymru Freddy Greaves 1,767 4.4 +1.9
Green Chris Carmichael 1,261 3.1 +2.3
Majority 5,102 12.7
Turnout 40,074 73.8 +1

Leave vote: 50.36%

Sitting MP: Christopher Davies
Prediction: Conservative hold

The UKIP vote defecting to the Conservatives should guarantee this remains a Tory seat.

2. Montgomeryshire

2010 Result:
Conservative: 13976 (41.3%)
Labour: 2407 (7.1%)
Lib Dem: 12792 (37.8%)
Plaid Cymru: 2802 (8.3%)
UKIP: 1128 (3.3%)
Independent: 324 (1%)
Others: 384 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 1184 (3.5%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Glyn Davies 15,204 45.0 +3.7
Liberal Democrat Jane Dodds⁹ 9,879 29.3 −8.6
UKIP Des Parkinson¹⁰ 3,769 11.2 +7.8
Labour Martyn Singleton¹¹ 1,900 5.6 −1.5
Plaid Cymru Ann Griffith¹² 1,745 5.2 −3.1
Green Richard Chaloner 1,260 3.7 N/A
Majority 5,325 15.8 +12.3
Turnout 33,757 69.3 −0.1

Leave vote: 54.83%
Sitting MP: Glyn Davies (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Glyn Davies won this seat in part because Lembit Opik outstayed his welcome. He’s proved to be quite popular and although the LibDems will they can retake it, they failed to in 2015 and I doubt whether they can pull it off again, especially when the Leave vote was so high here.

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE