General Election Predictions

General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 6: Scotland - Borders & Ayrshire

23 Apr 2017 at 21:54

Scotland – Borders & Ayrshire

Seats: 7
Current Political Makeup: SNP 6, Con 1
Predicted Political Makeup after June 8: SNP 4, Con 3

1. North Ayshire & Arran

2010 Result:
Conservative: 7212 (15.6%)
Labour: 21860 (47.4%)
Lib Dem: 4630 (10%)
SNP: 11965 (25.9%)
Others: 449 (1%)
MAJORITY: 9895 (21.5%)

2015 Result:
SNP Patricia Gibson 28,641 53.2 +27.2
Labour Katy Clark 15,068 28.0 -19.4
Conservative Jamie Greene 7,968 14.8 -0.8
UKIP Sharon McGonigal5 1,296 2.4 n/a
Liberal Democrat Ruby Kirkwood 896 1.7 -8.4
Majority 13,573 25.2
Turnout 53,869 71.1 +9.6

Sitting MP: Patricia Gibson (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold

2. Central Ayrshire

2010 Result:
Conservative: 8943 (20.4%)
Labour: 20950 (47.7%)
Lib Dem: 5236 (11.9%)
SNP: 8364 (19%)
Others: 422 (1%)
MAJORITY: 12007 (27.3%)

2015 Result:
SNP Philippa Whitford 26,999 53.2 +34.1
Labour Brian Donohoe 13,410 26.4 −21.3
Conservative Marc Hope7 8,803 17.3 −3.0
Liberal Democrat Gordon Bain8 917 1.8 -10.1
Scottish Green Veronika Tudhope9 645 1.3 N/A
Majority 13,589 26.8 n/a
Turnout 50,774 72.5 +8.3

Sitting MP: Philippa Whitford (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold

3. Kilmarnock & Loudoun

2010 Result:
Conservative: 6592 (14.2%)
Labour: 24460 (52.5%)
Lib Dem: 3419 (7.3%)
SNP: 12082 (26%)
MAJORITY: 12378 (26.6%)

2015 Result:
SNP Alan Brown 30,000 55.7 +29.7
Labour Co-op Cathy Jamieson5 16,362 30.4 −22.1
Conservative Brian Whittle6 6,752 12.5 −1.7
Liberal Democrat Rodney Ackland7 789 1.5 −5.8
Majority 13,638 25.3
Turnout 53,903 71.6 +8.8

Sitting MP: Alan Brown (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold

4. Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk

2010 Result:
Conservative: 16555 (33.8%)
Labour: 5003 (10.2%)
Lib Dem: 22230 (45.4%)
SNP: 4497 (9.2%)
UKIP: 595 (1.2%)
Others: 134 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 5675 (11.6%)

2015 Result:
SNP Calum Kerr6 20,145 36.6 +27.4
Conservative John Lamont7 19,817 36.0 +2.2
Liberal Democrats Michael Moore7 10,294 18.7 −26.7
Labour Kenryck Jones8 2,700 4.9 −5.3
UKIP Peter Neilson8 1,316 2.4 +1.2
Scottish Green Pauline Stewart9 631 1.1 N/A
Independent Jesse Rae8 135 0.2 N/A
Majority 328 0.6 n/a
Turnout 55,038 74.2 +7.8

Sitting MP: Calum Kerr (SNP)
Prediction: *Conservative
gain

If the Conservatives don’t win this seat they are unlikely to make many gains in Scotland. They may take a good proportion of the UKIP vote, which could seem them home on its own.

5. Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweeddale

2010 Result:
Conservative: 17457 (38%)
Labour: 13263 (28.9%)
Lib Dem: 9080 (19.8%)
SNP: 4945 (10.8%)
Green: 510 (1.1%)
UKIP: 637 (1.4%)
MAJORITY: 4194 (9.1%)

2015 Result:
Conservative David Mundell 20,759 39.8 +1.8
SNP Emma Harper 19,961 38.3 +27.5
Labour Archie Dryburgh 7,711 14.8 -14.1
UKIP Kevin Newton 1,472 2.8 +1.4
Liberal Democrats Amanda Kubie 1,392 2.7 -17.1
Scottish Green Jody Jamieson 839 1.6 +0.5
Majority 798 1.5 -7.6
Turnout 52,134 76.1 +7.2

Sitting MP: David Mundell (Con)
Prediction: *Conservative
hold

David Mundell managed to hold off the SNP last time, but only just. The SNP will move heaven and earth to oust him in June, but much will depend where the Labour vote goes. This one really is on a knife-edge, but a combination of Mundell’s personal vote and Ruth Davidson’s popularity ought to see him home. But I wouldn’t bet my house on it.

6. Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock

2010 Result:
Conservative: 11721 (25.5%)
Labour: 21632 (47.1%)
Lib Dem: 4264 (9.3%)
SNP: 8276 (18%)
MAJORITY: 9911 (21.6%)

2015 Result:
SNP Corri Wilson 25,492 48.8 +30.8
Labour Sandra Osborne 14,227 27.3 −19.9
Conservative Lee Lyons 10,355 19.8 −5.7
UKIP Joseph Adam-Smith4 1,280 2.5 N/A
Liberal Democrat Richard Brodie 855 1.6 −7.7
Majority 11,265 21.6 N/A
Turnout 52,209 71.5 +8.9

Sitting MP: Corri Wilson (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold

The SNP MP will be happy to have a split opposition. It wasn’t that long ago that this was a Tory seat and this should be a long term target for them. But it’s too early this time.

7. Dumfries & Galloway

2010 Result:
Conservative: 16501 (31.6%)
Labour: 23950 (45.9%)
Lib Dem: 4608 (8.8%)
SNP: 6419 (12.3%)
UKIP: 695 (1.3%)
MAJORITY: 7449 (14.3%)

2015 Result:
SNP Richard Arkless 23,440 41.4 +29.1
Conservative Finlay Carson 16,926 29.9 -1.7
Labour Russell Brown 13,982 24.7 -21.2
UKIP Geoffrey Siddall 1,301 2.3 +1.0
Liberal Democrats Andrew Metcalf 953 1.7 -7.1
Majority 6,514 11.5 n/a
Turnout 56,602 75.2 +5.2

Sitting MP: Richard Arkless (SNP)
Prediction: Conservative gain

Labour’s Russell Brown was beaten into third place in 2015 and I don’t expect Labour to do better this time. Having been a Tory constituency, they will do their damndest to win this back from the SNP. I’m going to take a punt and predict that they will achieve this aim on June 8th. By no means a dead cert, though.

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE

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