General Election Predictions

General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 7: Central London

24 Apr 2017 at 09:29

LONDON CENTRAL

Seats: 6
Current Political Makeup: Con 2, Lab 4
Predicted Political Makeup after May 8: Con 3, Lab 3

Cities of London & Westminster

2010 Result:
Conservative: 19264 (52.2%)
Labour: 8188 (22.2%)
Lib Dem: 7574 (20.5%)
Green: 778 (2.1%)
UKIP: 664 (1.8%)
English Dem: 191 (0.5%)
Independent: 98 (0.3%)
Others: 174 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 11076 (30%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Mark Field 19,570 54.1 +1.9
Labour Nik Slingsby 9,899 27.4 +5.2
Liberal Democrat Belinda Brooks-Gordon 2,521 7.0 -13.5
Green Hugh Small 1,953 5.4 +3.4
UKIP Robert Stephenson 1,894 5.2 +3.4
CISTA Edouard-Henri Desforges 160 0.4 N/A
Christian Peoples Jill McLachlan 129 0.4 N/A
Class War Adam Clifford 59 0.2 N/A
Majority 9,671 26.7 -3.3
Turnout 36,185 59.3 +3.8

Leave Vote: 23.79%

Sitting MP: Mark Field (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Holborn & St Pancras

2010 Result:
Conservative: 11134 (20.4%)
Labour: 25198 (46.1%)
Lib Dem: 15256 (27.9%)
BNP: 779 (1.4%)
Green: 1480 (2.7%)
UKIP: 587 (1.1%)
English Dem: 75 (0.1%)
Independent: 96 (0.2%)
Others: 44 (0.1%)
MAJORITY: 9942 (18.2%)

2015 Result:
Labour Keir Starmer 29,062 52.9 +6.8
Conservative Will Blair 12,014 21.9 +1.5
Green Natalie Bennett 7,013 12.8 +10.1
Liberal Democrat Jill Fraser 3,555 6.5 −21.4
UKIP Maxine Spencer 2,740 5.0 +3.9
CISTA Shane O’Donnell 252 0.5 N/A
Animal Welfare Vanessa Hudson 173 0.3 N/A
Socialist Equality David O’Sullivan 108 0.2 N/A
Majority 17,048 31.0 +13.1
Turnout 54,917 63.3 +0.4

Leave Vote: 25.92%
Sitting MP: Sir Keir Starmer (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Islington South & Finsbury

2010 Result:
Conservative: 8449 (19.4%)
Labour: 18407 (42.3%)
Lib Dem: 14838 (34.1%)
Green: 710 (1.6%)
UKIP: 701 (1.6%)
English Dem: 301 (0.7%)
Others: 149 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 3569 (8.2%)

2015 Result:
Labour Emily Thornberry 22,547 50.9 +8.7
Conservative Mark Lim 9,839 22.2 +2.8
Liberal Democrat Terry Stacy 4,829 10.9 −23.2
UKIP Pete Muswell 3,375 7.6 +6.0
Green Charlie Kiss 3,371 7.6 +6.0
CISTA Jay Kirton 309 0.7 N/A
Majority 12,708 28.7 +20.5
Turnout 44,270 65.0 +0.6

Leave Vote: 29.8%

Sitting MP: Emily Thornbury (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Kensington

2010 Result:
Conservative: 17595 (50.1%)
Labour: 8979 (25.5%)
Lib Dem: 6872 (19.6%)
Green: 753 (2.1%)
UKIP: 754 (2.1%)
Others: 197 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 8616 (24.5%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Victoria Borwick9 18,199 52.3 +2.2
Labour Rod Abouharb 10,838 31.1 +5.6
Liberal Democrat Robin McGhee 1,962 5.6 −13.9
Green Robina Rose 1,765 5.1 +2.9
UKIP Jack Bovill10 1,557 4.5 +2.3
CISTA Tony Auguste 211 0.6 +0.6
Animal Welfare Andrew Knight 158 0.5 +0.5
Alliance for Green Socialism Toby Abse 115 0.3 −0.2
New Independent Centralists Roland Courtenay 23 0.1 +0.1
Majority 7,361 21.1 −3.4
Turnout 34,828 57.0 +3.7

Sitting MP: Victoria Borwick (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Poplar & Limehouse

2010 Result:
Conservative: 12649 (27.1%)
Labour: 18679 (40%)
Lib Dem: 5209 (11.2%)
Green: 449 (1%)
UKIP: 565 (1.2%)
Respect: 8160 (17.5%)
English Dem: 470 (1%)
Independent: 293 (0.6%)
Others: 226 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 6030 (12.9%)

2015 Result:
Labour Jim Fitzpatrick11 29,886 58.5 +18.6
Conservative Chris Wilford11 12,962 25.4 -1.7
UKIP Nicholas McQueen11 3,128 6.1 +4.9
Green Maureen Childs11 2,463 4.8 +3.9
Liberal Democrat Elaine Bagshaw12 2,149 4.2 -6.9
TUSC Hugo Pierre11 367 0.7 +0.7
Red Flag Anti-Corruption Rene Claudel Mugenzi11 89 0.2 +0.2
Majority 16,924 33.1 +20.2
Turnout 51,044 62.2 -0.1

Leave Vote: 34.07%

Sitting MP: Jim Fitzpatrick (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Westminster North

2010 Result:
Conservative: 15251 (38.5%)
Labour: 17377 (43.9%)
Lib Dem: 5513 (13.9%)
BNP: 334 (0.8%)
Green: 478 (1.2%)
UKIP: 315 (0.8%)
English Dem: 99 (0.3%)
Christian: 98 (0.2%)
Independent: 101 (0.3%)
Others: 32 (0.1%)
MAJORITY: 2126 (5.4%)

2015 Result:
Karen Buck Labour 18,504 46.8 +2.9
Lindsey Hall Conservative 16,527 41.8 +3.3
Nigel Sussman UKIP 1,489 3.8 +3.0
Kirsty Allan Liberal Democrat 1,457 3.7 –10.2
Jennifer Nadel Green 1,322 3.3 +2.1
Gabriela Fajardo Christian 152 0.4 +0.2
Charles Ward Independent 63 0.2
Majority: 2,126 (5.4%)
Swing: 0.6% from Lab to Con

Leave Vote: 30.03%
Sitting MP: Karen Buck (Lab)
Prediction: Conservative gain

Last time I predicted the Labour majority should increase by a couple of thousand at the very least. It didn’t. It remained static. If the Labour vote dribbles to the LibDems and the Tories can pick up half the UKIP vote this could be a very tight race indeed, and the Conservatives will be putting a lot of effort into this seat. They ought to take it.

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE

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