General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 8. Northumberland

NORTHUMBERLAND

Seats: 4
Current Political Makeup: Con 2, Lab 2
Predicted Political Makeup after June 8: Con 2, Lab 2

1. Berwick upon Tweed

2010 Result:
Conservative: 14116 (36.7%)
Labour: 5061 (13.2%)
Lib Dem: 16806 (43.7%)
BNP: 1213 (3.2%)
UKIP: 1243 (3.2%)
MAJORITY: 2690 (7%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Anne-Marie Trevelyan 16,603 41.1 +4.4
Liberal Democrat Julie Pörksen¹² 11,689 28.9 -14.8
Labour Scott Dickinson 6,042 14.9 +1.8
UKIP Nigel Coghill-Marshall¹³ 4,513 11.2 +7.9
Green Rachael Roberts 1,488 3.7 N/A
English Democrat Neil Humphrey 88 0.2 N/A
Majority 4,914 12.2
Turnout 40,423 69.6 +2.6

Leave vote: 59.04%

Sitting MP: Anne-Marie Trevelyan (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Not a huge majority for the Tories here, and the LibDems will be hoping they can attract enough Labour Remain supporters to win, but they will know that the Clonservatives will undoubtedly eat into the UKIP vote. It may be tight but I expect a Tory hold here, mainly because it had such a high Leave vote.

2. Blyth Valley

2010 Result:
Conservative: 6412 (16.6%)
Labour: 17156 (44.5%)
Lib Dem: 10488 (27.2%)
BNP: 1699 (4.4%)
UKIP: 1665 (4.3%)
English Dem: 327 (0.8%)
Independent: 819 (2.1%)
MAJORITY: 6668 (17.3%)

2015 Result:
Labour Ronnie Campbell 17,813 46.3 +1.8
UKIP Barry Elliott 8,584 22.3 +18.0
Conservative Greg Munro 8,346 21.7 +5.1
Liberal Democrat Philip Latham⁶ 2,265 5.9 -21.3
Green Dawn Furness⁷ 1,453 3.8 +3.8
Majority 9,229 24.0 +6.3
Turnout 38,461 60.1 +0.01

Leave Vote: 63.87%

Sitting MP: Ronnie Campbell (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

On the face of it a safe seat. UKIP came second here in 2015. If the bulk of their vote goes to the Tories Labour’s margin of victory may be very narrow indeed.

3. Hexham

2010 Result:
Conservative: 18795 (43.2%)
Labour: 8253 (19%)
Lib Dem: 13007 (29.9%)
BNP: 1205 (2.8%)
Independent: 1974 (4.5%)
Others: 249 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 5788 (13.3%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Guy Opperman 22,834 52.7 +9.5
Labour Liam Carr 10,803 24.9 +5.9
UKIP David Nicholson 4,302 9.9 N/A
Liberal Democrat Jeff Reid⁷ 2,961 6.8 -23.1
Green Lee Williscroft-Ferris 2,445 5.6 N/A
Majority 12,031 27.8 +9.5
Turnout 43,345 71.5 +0.7

Leave Vote: 48.88%

Sitting MP: Guy Opperman (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

4. Wansbeck

2010 Result:
Conservative: 6714 (17.5%)
Labour: 17548 (45.8%)
Lib Dem: 10517 (27.5%)
BNP: 1418 (3.7%)
Green: 601 (1.6%)
UKIP: 974 (2.5%)
Christian: 142 (0.4%)
Independent: 359 (0.9%)
MAJORITY: 7031 (18.4%)

2015 Result:
Labour Ian Lavery 19,267 50.0 +4.2
Conservative Chris Galley 8,386 21.8 +4.2
UKIP Melanie Hurst 7,014 18.2 +15.7
Liberal Democrat Tom Hancock 2,407 6.2 -21.2
Green Christopher Hedley 1,454 3.8 +2.2
Majority 10,881 28.2 +9.8
Turnout 38,528 63.6 +2.9

Leave Vote: 59.43%

Sitting MP: Ian Lavery (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Another very high UKIP vote here last time. I expect the Labour majority will tumble.

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE