General Election Predictions

General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 9. Bedfordshire

24 Apr 2017 at 20:51

Seats: 6
Current Political Makeup: Con 4, Lab 2
Predicted Political Makeup after June 8: Con 5, Lab 1
Revised: Con 4, Lab 2

BEDFORDSHIRE

1. Bedford

2010 Result:
Conservative: 17546 (38.9%)
Labour: 16193 (35.9%)
Lib Dem: 8957 (19.9%)
BNP: 757 (1.7%)
Green: 393 (0.9%)
UKIP: 1136 (2.5%)
Independent: 120 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 1353 (3%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Richard Fuller 19,625 42.6 +3.7
Labour Patrick Hall 18,528 40.2 +4.3
UKIP Charlie Smith 4,434 9.6 +7.1
Liberal Democrat Mahmud Rogers 1,958 4.2 −15.6
Green Ben Foley 12 1,412 3.1 +2.2
Independent Faruk Choudhury 129 0.3 N/A
Majority 1,097 2.4 −0.6
Turnout 46,086 66.5 +0.6

Leave Vote: 53.17%

Sitting MP: Richard Fuller (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

This seat was Labour during the Blair & Brown years and only narrowly went Tory in 2010. With a substantial LibDem vote to eat into, last time it should have gone Labour in 2015. There’s little reason to suggest it will this time.

2. Luton North

2010 Result:
Conservative: 13672 (31.8%)
Labour: 21192 (49.3%)
Lib Dem: 4784 (11.1%)
BNP: 1316 (3.1%)
Green: 490 (1.1%)
UKIP: 1564 (3.6%)
MAJORITY: 7520 (17.5%)

2015 Result:
Labour Kelvin Hopkins9 22,243 52.2 +2.9
Conservative Dean Russell10 12,739 29.9 −1.9
UKIP Allan White11 5,318 12.5 +8.9
Liberal Democrat Aroosa Ulzaman 1,299 3.1 −8.1
Green Sofiya Ahmed 972 2.3 +1.1
Majority 9,504 22.3 +4.8
Turnout 42,571 64.0 −1.5

Leave Vote: 56.29%

Sitting MP: Kelvin Hopkins (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

This used to be a safe Tory seat until boundary changes made it a safe Labour seat. Kelvin Hopkins’ majority increased in 2015 as he ate into the LibDem vote. I suspect many of those votes will return to the LibDems this time. The Tories may have hopes in this seat but Hopkins is popular and his personal vote may see him through.

3. Luton South

2010 Result:
Conservative: 12396 (29.4%)
Labour: 14725 (34.9%)
Lib Dem: 9567 (22.7%)
BNP: 1299 (3.1%)
Green: 366 (0.9%)
UKIP: 975 (2.3%)
Independent: 1872 (4.4%)
Others: 1016 (2.4%)
MAJORITY: 2329 (5.5%)

2015 Result:
Labour Gavin Shuker 18,660 44.2 +9.3
Conservative Katie Redmond 12,949 30.7 +1.3
UKIP Muhammad Rehman 5,129 12.1 +9.8
Liberal Democrat Ashuk Ahmed 3,183 7.5 −15.1
Green Simon Hall 1,237 2.9 +2.1
Independent Attiq Malik 900 2.1 N/A
Liberty GB Paul Weston 158 0.4 N/A
Majority 5,711 13.5 +8
Turnout 42,216 62.8 −2

Leave Vote: 53.07%
Sitting MP: Gavin Shuker (Lab)
Prediction: Conservative gain
Revised: Lab hold

As the LibDems return home from Labour, and UKIP voters return to the Tories Gavin Shuker may be a casualty of the Corbyn era.

4. Mid Bedfordshire

2010 Result:
Conservative: 28815 (52.5%)
Labour: 8108 (14.8%)
Lib Dem: 13663 (24.9%)
Green: 773 (1.4%)
UKIP: 2826 (5.1%)
English Dem: 712 (1.3%)
MAJORITY: 15152 (27.6%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Nadine Dorries 6 32,544 56.1 +3.6
Labour Charlynne Pullen 6 9,217 15.9 +1.1
UKIP Nigel Wickens7 8,966 15.4 +10.3
Liberal Democrat Linda Jack 8 4,193 7.2 -17.7
Green Gareth Ellis 9 2,462 4.2 +2.8
Independent Tim Ireland10 384 0.7 +0.7
Monster Raving Loony Ann Kelly11 294 0.5 +0.5
Majority 23,327 40.2 +12.6
Turnout 58,060 71.6 -0.6

Leave Vote: 52.06%

Sitting MP: Nadine Dorries (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

5. North East Bedfordshire

2010 Result:
Conservative: 30989 (55.8%)
Labour: 8957 (16.1%)
Lib Dem: 12047 (21.7%)
BNP: 1265 (2.3%)
UKIP: 2294 (4.1%)
MAJORITY: 18942 (34.1%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Alistair Burt 34,891 59.5 +3.7
Labour Saqhib Ali 7 9,247 15.8 −0.4
UKIP Adrianne Smyth8 8,579 14.6 +10.5
Liberal Democrat Peter Morris 9 3,418 5.8 −15.9
Green Mark Bowler 2,537 4.3 N/A
Majority 25,644 43.7 +9.6
Turnout 58,672 70.2

Leave Vote: 53.09%

Sitting MP: Alistair Burt (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

6. South West Bedfordshire

2010 Result:
Conservative: 26815 (52.8%)
Labour: 9948 (19.6%)
Lib Dem: 10166 (20%)
BNP: 1703 (3.4%)
UKIP: 2142 (4.2%)
MAJORITY: 16649 (32.8%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Andrew Selous 9 28,212 55.0 +2.2
Labour Daniel Scott 9 10,399 20.3 +0.7
UKIP John van Weenen 10 7,941 15.5 +11.3
Liberal Democrat Stephen Rutherford 11 2,646 5.2 −14.9
Green Emily Lawrence 12 2,106 4.1 N/A
Majority 17,813 34.7
Turnout 51,304 64.4

Leave Vote: 57.6%

Sitting MP: Andrew Selous (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

To see the complete list of predictions click HERE

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