General Election Predictions

General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 12. Gloucestershire

25 Apr 2017 at 23:06

Seats: 6
Current Political Makeup: Con 6, LibDem 0
Predicted Political Makeup after June 8: Con 5, LibDem 1

1. Cheltenham

2010 Result:
Conservative: 21739 (41.2%)
Labour: 2703 (5.1%)
Lib Dem: 26659 (50.5%)
UKIP: 1192 (2.3%)
Others: 493 (0.9%)
MAJORITY: 4920 (9.3%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Alex Chalk 11 24,790 46.1 +5.0
Liberal Democrat Martin Horwood 11 18,274 34.0 −16.5
Labour Paul Gilbert 12 3,902 7.3 +2.1
UKIP Christina Simmonds13 3,808 7.1 +4.8
Green Adam Van Coevorden 2,689 5.0 +5.0
Independent Richard Lupson-Darnell14 272 0.5 +0.5
Majority 6,516 12.1
Turnout 53,735 69.5 +2.4

Leave Vote: 38.76%

Sitting MP: Alex Chalk (Con)
Prediction LibDem gain

This is one of those Tory seats which could easily fall to the LibDems. It has a high Remain vote and there’s little UKIP vote for the Tories to eat into. If the Greens don’t stand here it would also add impetus to the LibDems, whose former MP Martin Horwood is standing again. If there’s a Tory landslide they could just about hold onto this, but all things considered I’d say this is a decent bet for the LibDems.

2. Forest of Dean

2010 Result:
Conservative: 22853 (46.9%)
Labour: 11789 (24.2%)
Lib Dem: 10676 (21.9%)
Green: 923 (1.9%)
UKIP: 2522 (5.2%)
MAJORITY: 11064 (22.7%)

Conservative Mark Harper5 23,191 46.8 −0.1
Labour Steve Parry-Hearn5 12,204 24.6 +0.5
UKIP Steve Stanbury 8,792 17.8 +12.6
Green James Greenwood 2,703 5.5 +3.6
Liberal Democrat Christopher Coleman 2,630 5.3 −16.6
Majority 10,987 22.2 −0.5
Turnout 49,520 70.9 −0.4

Leave Vote: 58.37%

Sitting MP: Mark Harper (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

3. Gloucester

2010 Result:
Conservative: 20267 (39.9%)
Labour: 17847 (35.2%)
Lib Dem: 9767 (19.2%)
Green: 511 (1%)
UKIP: 1808 (3.6%)
English Dem: 564 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 2420 (4.8%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Richard Graham 23,837 45.3 +5.4
Labour Sophy Gardner12 16,586 31.5 -3.6
UKIP Richard Ford 7,497 14.3 +10.7
Liberal Democrat Jeremy Hilton 2,828 5.4 -13.8
Green Jonathan Ingleby 1,485 2.8 +1.8
Monster Raving Loony George Ridgeon 277 0.4 +0.4
TUSC Sue Powell13 58 0.1 +0.1
Majority 7,241 13.8 +9.0
Turnout 52,565 63.4 -0.6

Leave Vote: 56.14%

Sitting MP: Richard Graham (Con)
Prediction: *Conservative
hold

4. Stroud

2010 Result:
Conservative: 23679 (40.8%)
Labour: 22380 (38.6%)
Lib Dem: 8955 (15.4%)
Green: 1542 (2.7%)
UKIP: 1301 (2.2%)
Independent: 116 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 1299 (2.2%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Neil Carmichael 27,813 45.7 +4.9
Labour Co-op David Drew 22,947 37.7 -0.9
UKIP Caroline Stephens11 4,848 8.0 +5.7
Green Sarah Lunnon 2,779 4.6 +1.9
Liberal Democrat Adrian Walker-Smith 2,086 3.4 -12.0
Independent Richard Wilson 246 0.4 +0.4
Free Public Transport David Michael 100 0.2 +0.2
Majority 4,866 8.0
Turnout 60,819 75.5

Leave Vote: 48.63%

Sitting MP: Neil Carmichael (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

5. Tewkesbury

2010 Result:
Conservative: 25472 (47.2%)
Labour: 6253 (11.6%)
Lib Dem: 19162 (35.5%)
Green: 525 (1%)
UKIP: 2230 (4.1%)
Others: 319 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 6310 (11.7%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Laurence Robertson 30,176 54.5 +7.3
Labour Ed Buxton 8,204 14.6 +3.2
Liberal Democrat Alistair Cameron 7,629 13.8 -21.7
UKIP Stuart Adair10 7,128 12.9 +8.7
Green Jemma Clarke11 2,207 4.0 +3.0
Majority 21,972 39.7 +28.0
Turnout 55,344 70.1 -0.3

Leave Vote: 52.38%

Sitting MP: Laurence Robertson (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

6. The Cotswolds

2010 Result:
Conservative: 29075 (53%)
Labour: 5886 (10.7%)
Lib Dem: 16211 (29.6%)
Green: 940 (1.7%)
UKIP: 2292 (4.2%)
Independent: 428 (0.8%)
MAJORITY: 12864 (23.5%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Geoffrey Clifton-Brown 32,045 56.5 +3.5
Liberal Democrat Paul Hodgkinson 6 10,568 18.6 −10.9
UKIP Chris Harlow 6,188 10.9 +6.7
Labour Manjinder Kang 5,240 9.2 −1.5
Green Penny Burgess 2,626 4.6 +2.9
Majority 21,477 37.9 +14.4
Turnout 56,667 72.4 +0.9

Leave Vote: 47.58%

Sitting MP: Geoffrey Clifton-Brown (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE

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