General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 14: Wales - South Glamorgan

SOUTH GLAMORGAN

Seats: 5
Current Political Makeup: Con 2, Lab 3
Predicted Political Makeup after May 8: Con 4, LibDem 1
Revised: Con 2, Lab 3

1. Cardiff Central

2010 Result:
Conservative: 7799 (21.6%)
Labour: 10400 (28.8%)
Lib Dem: 14976 (41.4%)
Plaid Cymru: 1246 (3.4%)
Green: 575 (1.6%)
UKIP: 765 (2.1%)
TUSC: 162 (0.4%)
Independent: 86 (0.2%)
Others: 142 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 4576 (12.7%)

2015 Result:
Labour Jo Stevens⁹ 15,462 40.01 +11.2
Liberal Democrat Jenny Willott⁹ 10,481 27.12 −14.3
Conservative Richard Hopkin 5,674 14.68 −6.9
UKIP Anthony Raybould¹⁰ 2,499 6.47 +4.4
Green Chris Von Ruhland ¹⁰ 2,461 6.37 +4.8
Plaid Cymru Martin Pollard 1,925 4.98 +1.5
TUSC Steve Williams¹¹ 110 0.28 −0.2
Independent Kazimir Hubert⁹ 34 0.09 N/A
Majority 4,981 12.9
Turnout 38,646 67.3 +8.2

Leave Vote: 28.38%

Sitting MP: Jo Stevens (Lab)
Prediction: LibDem gain
Revised: Lab hold

Eluned Parrott replaces Jenny Willott in this seat as LibDem candidate and she stands a good chance of re-gaining the seat from Labour. This seat has a huge Remain vote and that may be the key to LibDem success.

2. Cardiff North

2010 Result:
Conservative: 17860 (37.5%)
Labour: 17666 (37.1%)
Lib Dem: 8724 (18.3%)
Plaid Cymru: 1588 (3.3%)
Green: 362 (0.8%)
UKIP: 1130 (2.4%)
Christian: 300 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 194 (0.4%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Craig Williams 21,709 42.4 +4.9
Labour Mari Williams 19,572 38.3 +1.2
UKIP Ethan R Wilkinson 3,953 7.7 +5.4
Plaid Cymru Elin Jones 2,301 4.5 +1.2
Liberal Democrat Elizabeth Clark 1,953 3.8 −14.5
Green Ruth Osner 1,254 2.5 +1.7
Christian Jeff Green 331 0.6 0.0
Alter Change Shaun Jenkins 78 0.2 n/a
Majority 2,137 4.2 +3.8
Turnout 51,151 76.1 +3.4

Leave Vote: 38.31%

Sitting MP: Craig Williams (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Craig Williams increased the Tory majority of 195 to more than 2000 so must be confident of retaining the seat.

3. Cardiff South & Penarth

2010 Result:
Conservative: 12553 (28.3%)
Labour: 17262 (38.9%)
Lib Dem: 9875 (22.3%)
Plaid Cymru: 1851 (4.2%)
Green: 554 (1.2%)
UKIP: 1145 (2.6%)
Christian: 285 (0.6%)
Independent: 648 (1.5%)
Others: 196 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 4709 (10.6%)

2015 Result:
Labour Co-op Stephen Doughty¹⁴ 19,966 42.8 +3.9
Conservative Emma Warman 12,513 26.8 −1.5
UKIP John Rees-Evans¹⁵ 6,423 13.8 +11.2
Plaid Cymru Ben Foday ¹⁶ 3,443 7.4 +3.2
Liberal Democrat Nigel Howells 2,318 5.0 −17.3
Green Anthony Slaughter 1,746 3.7 +2.5
TUSC Ross Saunders 258 0.6 n/a
Majority 7,453 16.0 −11.4
Turnout 46,667 61.4 +1.2

Leave Vote: 45.51%

Sitting MP: Stephen Doughty (Lab)
Prediction: Conservative gain
Revised: Lab hold

If the UKIP vote goes to the Conservatives as the ITV Wales poll predicts, this is a pretty definite Tory gain.

4. Cardiff West

2010 Result:
Conservative: 12143 (29.6%)
Labour: 16894 (41.2%)
Lib Dem: 7186 (17.5%)
Plaid Cymru: 2868 (7%)
Green: 750 (1.8%)
UKIP: 1117 (2.7%)
MAJORITY: 4751 (11.6%)

2015 Result:
Labour Kevin Brennan 17,803 40.7 −0.6
Conservative James Taghdissian 11,014 25.2 −4.5
Plaid Cymru Neil McEvoy 6,096 13.9 +6.9
UKIP Brian Morris 4,923 11.2 +8.5
Liberal Democrat Cadan ap Tomos 2,069 4.7 −12.8
Green Ken Barker 1,704 3.9 +2.1
TUSC Helen Jones 183 0.4 n/a
Majority 6,789 15.5 +3.9
Turnout 43,792 65.6 +0.4

Leave Vote: 44.22%

Sitting MP: Kevin Brennan (Lab)
Prediction: Conservative gain
Revised: Lab hold

Kevin Brennan won’t have anything to worry about. That’s what I said in 2015 and I was right. This time he does. A very popular MP, he might well lose his seat to the Conservatives if the stars align. I think they might well do.

5. Vale of Glamorgan

2010 Result:
Conservative: 20341 (41.8%)
Labour: 16034 (32.9%)
Lib Dem: 7403 (15.2%)
Plaid Cymru: 2667 (5.5%)
Green: 457 (0.9%)
UKIP: 1529 (3.1%)
Christian: 236 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 4307 (8.8%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Alun Cairns 23,607 46.0 +4.2
Labour Chris Elmore 16,727 32.6 −0.3
UKIP Kevin Mahoney 5,489 10.7 +7.6
Plaid Cymru Ian Johnson 2,869 5.6 +0.1
Liberal Democrat David Morgan⁶ 1,309 2.6 −12.7
Green Alan Armstrong 1,054 2.1 +1.1
CISTA Steve Reed 238 0.5 +0.5
Majority 6,880 13.4 +4.6
Turnout 51,293 71.1 +1.8

Leave Vote: 51.02%

Sitting MP: Alun Cairns (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE