General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 15. County Durham

COUNTY DURHAM

Seats: 7
Current Political Makeup: Lab 7
Predicted Political Makeup after June 8: Con 2, Lab 5

1. Bishop Auckland

2010 Result:
Conservative: 10805 (26.3%)
Labour: 16023 (39%)
Lib Dem: 9189 (22.3%)
BNP: 2036 (4.9%)
UKIP: 1119 (2.7%)
Others: 1964 (4.8%)
MAJORITY: 5218 (12.7%)

2015 Result:
Labour Helen Goodman 16,307 41.4 +2.4
Conservative Christopher Adams 12,799 32.5 +6.2
UKIP Rhys Burriss 7,015 17.8 +15.1
Liberal Democrat Stephen White 1,723 4.4 -18.0
Green Thom Robinson 1,545 3.9 N/A
Majority 3,508 8.9
Turnout 38,389 59.6

Leave Vote: 63.28%

Sitting MP: Helen Goodman (Lab)
Prediction: Conservative gain

This seat’s Labour majority was cut substantially last time mainly because Labour voters went to UKIP. They’re unlikely to return to the fold this time given that this constituency had a very high Leave vote. If Brexit is important to them, many of them may vote Conservative. The big question is how many. Enough, is my prediction.

2. City of Durham

2010 Result:
Conservative: 6146 (13.3%)
Labour: 20496 (44.3%)
Lib Dem: 17429 (37.7%)
BNP: 1153 (2.5%)
UKIP: 856 (1.9%)
Independent: 172 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 3067 (6.6%)

2015 Result:
Labour Roberta Blackman-Woods 21,596 47.3 +2.9
Conservative Rebecca Coulson¹⁴ 10,157 22.2 +8.9
UKIP Liam Clark 5,232 11.4 +9.6
Liberal Democrat Craig Martin¹⁵ 5,183 11.3 −26.3
Green Jonathan Elmer¹⁶ 2,687 5.9 N/A
Independent John Marshall¹⁷ 649 1.4 N/A
Independent Jon Collings 195 0.4 N/A
Majority 11,439 25.0
Turnout 45,699 66.5

Leave Vote: 48.09%

Sitting MP: Roberta Blackman-Woods (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

3. Darlington

2010 Result:
Conservative: 13503 (31.5%)
Labour: 16891 (39.4%)
Lib Dem: 10046 (23.4%)
BNP: 1262 (2.9%)
UKIP: 1194 (2.8%)
MAJORITY: 3388 (7.9%)

2015 Result:
Labour Jenny Chapman 17,637 42.9 +3.5
Conservative Peter Cuthbertson⁶ 14,479 35.2 +3.7
UKIP David Hodgson⁷ 5,392 13.1 +10.3
Liberal Democrat Anne-Marie Curry⁸ 1,966 4.8 -18.6
Green Michael Cherrington⁹ 1,444 3.5 N/A
TUSC Alan Docherty ¹⁰ 223 0.5 N/A
Majority 3,158 7.7 -0.2
Turnout 41,141 62.5 +0.6

Leave Vote: 59.04%

Sitting MP: Jenny Chapman (Lab)
Prediction: Conservative gain

Michael Fallon was MP here between 1983 and 1992 and there are plenty of Tories who expected to win it back in 2010 and 2015. It didn’t happen, but this seat goes Tory in the event of a big Tory victory. They have a strong candidate in Peter Cuthbertson, who fought the seat last time and is fighting again. It will be a shock if he doesn’t pull it off.

4. Easington

2010 Result:
Conservative: 4790 (13.7%)
Labour: 20579 (58.9%)
Lib Dem: 5597 (16%)
BNP: 2317 (6.6%)
UKIP: 1631 (4.7%)
MAJORITY: 14982 (42.9%)

2015 Result:
Labour Grahame Morris 21,132 61.0 +2.1
UKIP Jonathan Arnott 6,491 18.7 +14.1
Conservative Chris Hampsheir 4,478 12.9 -0.8
Liberal Democrat Luke Armstrong 834 2.4 -13.6
North East Party Susan McDonnell⁵ 810 2.3 N/A
Green Martie Warin 733 2.1 N/A
Socialist (GB) Steve Colborn ⁶ 146 0.4 N/A
Majority 14,641 42.3 -0.6
Turnout 34,624 56.1 +1.4

Leave Vote: 68.79

Sitting MP: Grahame Morris (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

One of the few seats where the UKIP vote might actually go up.

5. North Durham

2010 Result:
Conservative: 8622 (21%)
Labour: 20698 (50.5%)
Lib Dem: 8617 (21%)
BNP: 1686 (4.1%)
UKIP: 1344 (3.3%)
MAJORITY: 12076 (29.5%)

2015 Result:
Labour Kevan Jones 22,047 54.9 +4.4
Conservative Laetitia Glossop⁵ 8,403 20.9 -0.1
UKIP Malcolm Bint ⁶ 6,404 16.0 +12.7
Liberal Democrat Peter Maughan⁷ 2,046 5.1 -15.9
Green Victoria Nolan⁸ 1,246 3.1 N/A
Majority 13,644 34.0
Turnout 40,146 61.4 +0.8

Leave Vote: 63.48%

Sitting MP: Kevan Jones (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

6. North West Durham

2010 Result:
Conservative: 8766 (20%)
Labour: 18539 (42.3%)
Lib Dem: 10927 (24.9%)
BNP: 1852 (4.2%)
UKIP: 1259 (2.9%)
Independent: 2472 (5.6%)
MAJORITY: 7612 (17.4%)

2015 Result:
Labour Pat Glass 20,074 46.9 +4.6
Conservative Charlotte Haitham-Taylor 10,018 23.4 +3.4
UKIP Bruce Reid 7,265 17.0 +14.1
Liberal Democrat Owen Temple 3,894 9.1 -15.8
Green Mark Shilcock 1,567 3.7 N/A
Majority 10,056 23.5
Turnout 42,818 61.3

Leave Vote: 58.68%

Sitting MP: Pat Glass (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Pat Glass is standing down and although there’s still a healthy 10k majority here for Labour this may be an outside chance for the Conservatives. Unlikely though.

7. Sedgefield

2010 Result:
Conservative: 9445 (23.5%)
Labour: 18141 (45.1%)
Lib Dem: 8033 (20%)
BNP: 2075 (5.2%)
UKIP: 1479 (3.7%)
Others: 1049 (2.6%)
MAJORITY: 8696 (21.6%)

2015 Result:
Labour Philip Wilson 18,275 47.2 +2.1
Conservative Scott Wood 11,432 29.5 +6.0
UKIP John Leathley 6,426 16.6 +12.9
Liberal Democrat Stephen Glenn 1,370 3.5 −16.4
Green Greg Robinson 1,213 3.1 N/A
Majority 6,843 17.7
Turnout 38,716 61.6

Leave Vote: 62.35%

Sitting MP: Phil Wilson (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

The Labour majority here has been declining here ever since Tony Blair left but the vote share is a healthy 47%. The cheering in CCHQ would be wild if the Tories managed to take this, but you feel only a very high turnout would enable them to do it.

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE