General Election Predictions

General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 16. Teesside

27 Apr 2017 at 12:01

TEESSIDE

Seats: 6
Current Political Makeup: Con 1, Lab 5
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 3, Lab 3

1. Hartlepool

2010 Result:
Conservative: 10758 (28.1%)
Labour: 16267 (42.5%)
Lib Dem: 6533 (17.1%)
BNP: 2002 (5.2%)
UKIP: 2682 (7%)
MAJORITY: 5509 (14.4%)

2015 Result:
Labour Iain Wright 14,076 35.6 -6.9
UKIP Phillip Broughton 11,052 28.0 +21.0
Conservative Richard Royal 8,256 20.9 -7.2
Independent Stephen Picton 2,954 7.5 N/A
Green Michael Holt 1,341 3.4 N/A
Save Hartlepool Hospital Sandra Allison 849 2.1 N/A
Liberal Democrat Hilary Allen 761 1.9 -15.2
Independent John Hobbs 201 0.5 +N/A
Majority 3,024 7.7 -6.7
Turnout 39,490 56.8 +1.3

Leave Vote: 63.49%

Sitting MP: Iain Wright (Lab)
Prediction: Conservative gain

Iain Wright is standing down and although this ought to be a top UKIP target, if the polls are right and UKIP’s vote in seeping to the Tories, it’s quite possible they will win here. Alternatively they could continue to split the anti-Labour vote and let Labour through the middle. In the end it will come down to how effective the Tory candidate is in persuading UKIP voters that they should move their vote to the Tories.

2. Middlesbrough

2010 Result:
Conservative: 6283 (18.8%)
Labour: 15351 (45.9%)
Lib Dem: 6662 (19.9%)
BNP: 1954 (5.8%)
UKIP: 1236 (3.7%)
Independent: 1969 (5.9%)
MAJORITY: 8689 (26%)

2015 Result:
Labour Andy McDonald 18,584 56.8 +10.9
UKIP Nigel Baker 6,107 18.7 +15.0
Conservative Simon Clarke 5,388 16.5 -2.3
Green Hannah Graham 1,407 4.3 +4.3
Liberal Democrat Richard Kilpatrick 1,220 3.7 -16.2
Majority 12,477 38.1 +12.1
Turnout 32,706 52.9

Leave Vote: 57.72%

Sitting MP: Andrew McDonald
Prediction: Labour hold

3. Middlesbrough South & East Cleveland

2010 Result:
Conservative: 16461 (35.6%)
Labour: 18138 (39.2%)
Lib Dem: 7340 (15.9%)
BNP: 1576 (3.4%)
UKIP: 1881 (4.1%)
Independent: 818 (1.8%)
MAJORITY: 1677 (3.6%)

2015 Result:
Labour Tom Blenkinsop 19,193 42.0 +2.8
Conservative Will Goodhand 16,925 37.1 +1.4
UKIP Steve Turner 6,935 15.2 +11.1
Liberal Democrat Ben Gibson 1,564 3.4 -12.5
Green Martin Brampton 1,060 2.3 +2.3
Majority 2,268 5.0 +1.4
Turnout 45,677 64.2 +0.6

Leave Vote: 61.17%

Sitting MP: Tom Blenkinsop (Lab)
Prediction: Conservative gain

This seat has been slipping away from Labour for some time and the fact that Tom Blenkinsop is standing down won’t help their cause. He clearly saw the electoral writing on the wall. A surefire Tory gain.

4. Redcar

2010 Result:
Conservative: 5790 (13.8%)
Labour: 13741 (32.7%)
Lib Dem: 18955 (45.2%)
BNP: 1475 (3.5%)
UKIP: 1875 (4.5%)
TUSC: 127 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 5214 (12.4%)

2015 Result:
Labour Co-op Anna Turley 17,946 43.9 +11.1
Liberal Democrat Josh Mason 7,558 18.5 -26.7
UKIP Christopher Gallacher 7,516 18.4 +13.9
Conservative Jacob Young 6,630 16.2 +2.4
Green Peter Pinkney 880 2.2 +2.2
North East Party Philip Lockey 389 1.0 +1.0
Majority 10,388 25.4
Turnout 40,919 63.1 +0.6

Leave Vote: 66.27%

Sitting MP: Anna Turley (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

How the LibDems won this seat in 2010 is anyone’s guess. Any chance they had of hanging onto it disappeared when Ian Swales announced he wouldn’t stand again in 2015, and sure enough Labour won it back with a big majority. In theory it should stay Labour but there was a massive Leave vote here and this might well have an impact on the electoral arithmetic. This is a difficult one but a Labour hold must be the most likely result.

5. Stockton North

2010 Result:
Conservative: 10247 (25.9%)
Labour: 16923 (42.8%)
Lib Dem: 6342 (16.1%)
BNP: 1724 (4.4%)
UKIP: 1556 (3.9%)
English Dem: 1129 (2.9%)
Independent: 1577 (4%)
MAJORITY: 6676 (16.9%)

2015 Result:
Labour Alex Cunningham 19,436 49.1 +6.3
Conservative Christopher Daniels 11,069 28.0 +2.0
UKIP Mandy Boylett 7,581 19.2 +15.2
Liberal Democrat Anthony Sycamore 884 2.2 −13.8
North East Party John Tait 601 1.5 +1.5
Majority 8,367 21.1
Turnout 39,571 59.8

Leave Vote: 62.44%

Sitting MP: Alex Cunningham (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

On a great night for the Tories this seat would fall. I’m going to play safe on this one as I’m not quite sure the sums work unless it really is a masisve landslide night.

6. Stockton South

2010 Result:
Conservative: 19577 (38.9%)
Labour: 19245 (38.3%)
Lib Dem: 7600 (15.1%)
BNP: 1553 (3.1%)
UKIP: 1471 (2.9%)
Christian: 302 (0.6%)
Independent: 536 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 332 (0.7%)

2015 Result:
Conservative James Wharton 24,221 46.8 +7.8
Labour Louise Baldock 19,175 37.0 -1.3
UKIP Ted Strike 5,480 10.6 +7.7
Liberal Democrat Drew Durning 1,366 2.6 -12.5
Green Jacqui Lovell 952 1.8 +1.8
Independent Steve Walmsley 603 1.2 +1.2
Majority 5,046 9.7
Turnout 51,797 69.0

Leave Vote: 54.4%

Sitting MP: James Wharton (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE

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