General Election Predictions

General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 17. Northern Ireland

27 Apr 2017 at 20:48

NORTHERN IRELAND

Seats: 18
Current Political Makeup: DUP 8, Sinn Fein 4, UUP 2, SDLP 3, Independent 1
Predicted Political Makeup after June 8: DUP 8, Sinn Fein 5, UUP 1, SDLP 3, Independent 1

1. Belfast East

Naomi Long (Alliance) 12,839 (37.2%, +26.1%)
Peter Robinson (DUP) 11,306 (32.8%, -19.6%)
Trevor Ringland (UCUNF) 7,305 (21.2%, -9.7%)
David Vance (TUV) 1,856 (5.4%)
Niall Ó Donnghaile (Sinn Féin) 817 (2.4%, ±0)
Mary Muldoon (SDLP) 365 (1.1%, -1.0%)
Majority: 1,533

2015 Result:
DUP Gavin Robinson5 19,575 49.3 +16.5
Alliance Naomi Long 16,978 42.8 +5.6
NI Conservatives Neil Wilson6 1,121 2.8 N/A
Green (NI) Ross Brown 1,058 2.7 N/A
Sinn Féin Niall Ó Donnghaile 823 2.1 −0.3
SDLP Mary Muldoon 127 0.3 −0.8
Majority 2,597 6.5
Turnout 39,682 62.8 +4.4

Sitting MP: Gavin Robinson (DUP)
Prediction: DUP hold

2. Belfast North

Nigel Dodds (DUP) 14,812 (40.0%, -5.6%)
Gerry Kelly (Sinn Féin) 12,588 (34.0%, +5.4%)
Alban Maginness (SDLP) 4,544 (12.3%, -3.9%)
Fred Cobain (UCUNF) 2,837 (7.7%, +0.6%)
William Webb (Alliance) 1,809 (4.9%, +3.5%)
Martin McAuley (Independent) 403 (1.1%)
Majority 2,224

2015 Result:

DUP Nigel Dodds5 19,096 47.0 +7.0
Sinn Féin Gerry Kelly 13,770 33.9 -0.1
SDLP Alban Maginness6 3,338 8.2 -4.1
Alliance Jason O’Neill7 2,941 7.3 +2.4
Workers’ Party Gemma Weir7 919 2.3 N/A
Independent Fra Hughes 529 1.3 N/A
Majority 5,326 13.1 +7.1
Turnout 40,593 59.2 +2.7

Sitting MP: Nigel Dodds (DUP)
Prediction: DUP hold

3. Belfast South

Alasdair McDonnell (SDLP) 14,026 (41.0%, +8.9%)
Jimmy Spratt (DUP) 8,100 (23.7%, -6.1%)
Paula Bradshaw (UCUNF) 5,910 (17.3%, -4.9%)
Anna Lo (Alliance) 5,114 (15.0%, +7.8%)
Adam McGibbon (Green) 1,036 (3.0%)
Majority: 5,926

SDLP Alasdair McDonnell 9,560 24.5 −16.5
DUP Jonathan Bell 8,654 22.2 −1.5
Alliance Paula Bradshaw 6,711 17.2 +2.3
Sinn Féin Máirtín Ó Muilleoir 5,402 13.9 N/A
UUP Rodney McCune 3,549 9.1 −8.2
Green (NI) Clare Bailey 2,238 5.7 +2.7
UKIP Bob Stoker 1,900 4.9 N/A
NI Conservatives Ben Manton 582 1.5 N/A
Workers’ Party Lily Kerr 361 0.9 N/A
Majority 906 2.3 −15.0
Turnout 38,957 60.0 +2.6

Sitting MP: Alasdair McDonnell (SDLP)
Prediction: SDLP hold

4. Belfast West

Gerry Adams (Sinn Féin) 22,840 (71.1%, +3.5%)
Alex Attwood (SDLP) 5,261 (16.4%, +0.4%)
William Humphrey (DUP) 2,436 (7.6%, -3.2%)
Bill Manwaring (UCUNF) 1,000 (3.1% +0.6%)
Maire Hendron (Alliance) 596 (1.9% , +1.8%)
Majority: 17,579

BY ELECTION
Paul Maskey (SF) 16,211 (70.6%, -0.5%)
Alex Attwood (SDLP) 3088 (13.5%, -2.9%)
Gerry Carroll (People Before Profit) 1751 (7.6%)
Brian Kingston (DUP) 1393 (6.1%, -1.5%)
Bill Manwaring (UUP) 386 (1.7%, -1.4%)
Aaron McIntyre (Alliance) 122 (0.5%, -1.4%)
Majority: 13,123

2015 Result:
Sinn Féin Paul Maskey 19,163 54.2 −16.4
People Before Profit Gerry Carroll 6,798 19.2 +11.6
SDLP Alex Attwood 3,475 9.8 −3.7
DUP Frank McCoubrey 2,773 7.8 +1.7
UUP Bill Manwaring 1,088 3.1 +1.4
UKIP Brian Higginson10 765 2.2 N/A
Alliance Gerard Catney 11 636 1.8 +1.3
Workers’ Party John Lowry10 597 1.7 N/A
NI Conservatives Paul Shea 34 0.1 N/A
Majority 12,365 35.0 -19.7
Turnout 35,329 56.3 +2.3

Sitting MP: Paul Maskey (Sinn Fein)
Prediction: Sinn Fein hold

5. East Antrim

Sammy Wilson (DUP) 13,993 (45.9%, -1.0%)
Rodney McCune (UCUNF) 7,223 (23.7%, -1.4%)
Gerry Lynch (Alliance) 3,377 (11.1%, -3.6%)
Oliver McMullan (Sinn Féin) 2,064 (6.8%, +1.4%)
Justin McCamphill (SDLP) 2,019 (6.6%, -0.8%)
Samuel Morrison (TUV) 1,826 (6.0%)
Majority 6,770

2015 Result:
DUP Sammy Wilson 12,103 36.1 −9.7
UUP Roy Beggs Jnr 6,308 18.8 −4.9
Alliance Stewart Dickson 5,021 15.0 +3.9
UKIP Noel Jordan 3,660 10.9 +10.9
Sinn Féin Oliver McMullan 2,314 6.9 +0.1
TUV Ruth Wilson 1,903 5.7 −0.3
SDLP Margaret Anne McKillop 1,639 4.9 −1.7
NI Conservatives Alex Wilson 549 1.6 +1.6
Majority 5,795 17.3 -4.9
Turnout 33,497 53.3 +2.6
Sitting MP: Sammy Wilson (DUP)
Prediction: DUP hold

6. East Londonderry

Gregory Campbell (DUP) 12,097 (34.6%, -6.4%)
Cathal Ó hOisín (Sinn Féin) 6,742 (19.3%, +1.9%)
Lesley Macaulay (UCUNF) 6,218 (17.8%, -1.9%)
Thomas Conway (SDLP) 5,399 (15.5% -3.8%)
William Ross (TUV) 2,572 (7.4%)
Barney Fitzpatrick (Alliance) 1,922 (5.5%, +3.1%)
Majority 5355

2015 Result:
DUP Gregory Lloyd Campbell 14,663 42.2 +7.6
Sinn Féin Caoimhe Archibald 6,859 19.8 +0.5
UUP William McCandless6 5,333 15.4 −2.4
SDLP Gerry Mullan 4,268 12.3 −3.2
Alliance Yvonne Boyle 2,642 7.6 +2.1
CISTA Neil Paine 527 1.5 +1.5
NI Conservatives Liz St Clair-Legge 422 1.2 +1.2
Majority 7,804 22.5 +7.2
Turnout 34,714 51.9 −3.4

Sitting MP: Gregory Campbell (DUP)
Prediction: DUP hold

7. Fermanagh & South Tyrone

Michelle Gildernew (Sinn Féin) 21,304 (45.5%, +7.3%)
Rodney Connor (Independent) 21,300 (45.5%)
Fearghal McKinney (SDLP) 3,574 (7.6%, -7.2%)
Vasundhara Kamble (Alliance) 437 (0.9%)
John Stevenson (Independent) 188 (0.4%)
Majority: 4

2015 Result:
UUP Tom Elliott 23,608 46.4 N/A
Sinn Féin Michelle Gildernew 23,078 45.4 −0.1
SDLP John Coyle 2,732 5.4 −2.3
Green (NI) Tanya Jones 788 1.5 N/A
Alliance Hannah Su 658 1.3 +0.4
Majority 530 1.0
Turnout 50,864 72.6 +3.7

Sitting MP: Tom Elliott (UUP)
Prediction: Sinn Fein gain

Sinn Fein lost the seat narrowly in 2010, but the Sinn Fein surge at the Assemby elections point to them regaining the seat this time.

8. Foyle

Mark Durkan (SDLP) 16,922 (44.7%, -1.7%)
Martina Anderson (Sinn Féin) 12,098 (31.9% -1.4%)
Maurice Devenney (DUP) 4,489 (11.9%, -2.2%)
Eamonn McCann (People Before Profit) 2,936 (7.8%)
David Harding (UCUNF) 1,221 (3.2%, +0.9%)
Keith McGrellis (Alliance) 223 (0.6%)
Majority: 4,824

2015 Result:
SDLP Mark Durkan 17,725 47.9 +3.2
Sinn Féin Gearóid Ó hEára 11,679 31.6 −0.4
DUP Gary Middleton 4,573 12.4 +0.5
UUP Julia Kee 1,226 3.3 +0.1
Alliance David Hawthorne 835 2.3 +1.7
UKIP Kyle Thompson 832 2.2 N/A
NI Conservatives Hamish Badenoch 132 0.4 N/A
Majority 6,046 16.3 +3.6
Turnout 37,002 52.8 −4.7

Sitting MP: Mark Durkan (SDLP)
Prediction: SDLP hold

9. Lagan Valley

Jeffrey Donaldson (DUP) 18,199 (49.8%, -8.5%)
Daphne Trimble (UCUNF) 7,713 (21.1%, -1.9%)
Trevor Lunn (Alliance) 4,174 (11.4%, +0.5%)
Keith Harbinson (TUV) 3,154 (8.6%)
Brian Heading (SDLP) 1,835 (5.0%, +1.5%)
Paul Butler (Sinn Féin) 1,465 (4.0%, -0.3%)
Majority: 10,486

2015 Result:
DUP Jeffrey Donaldson 19,055 47.9 −1.9
UUP Alexander Redpath 6,055 15.2 −5.9
Alliance Trevor Lunn 5,544 13.9 +2.5
SDLP Pat Catney 2,500 6.3 +1.3
UKIP Alan Love 2,200 5.5 N/A
TUV Samuel Morrison 1,887 4.7 −3.9
Sinn Féin Jacqui McGeough 1,144 2.9 −1.1
Independent Jonny Orr 756 1.9 N/A
NI Conservatives Helen Osborne 654 1.6 N/A
Majority 13,000 32.7 +4.0
Turnout 39,795 55.9 −0.1

Sitting MP: Jeffrey Donaldson (DUP)
Prediction: DUP hold

10. Mid Ulster

Martin McGuinness (Sinn Féin) 21,239 (52.0%, +4.4%)
Ian McCrea (DUP) 5,876 (14.4%, -9.1%)
Tony Quinn (SDLP) 5,826 (14.3%, -3.1%)
Sandra Overend (UCUNF) 4,509 (11.0%, +0.3%)
Walter Millar (TUV) 2,995 (7.3%)
Ian Butler (Alliance) 397 1.0%
Majority: 15,363

BY-ELECTION
Francie Molloy (SF) 17,462 (46.9%, -5.1%)
Nigel Lutton (Independent) 12,781 (34.4%)
Patsy McGlone (SDLP) 6,478 (17.4%, +3.1%)
Eric Bullick (Alliance) 487 (1.3%, +0.3%)
Majority: 4,681

2015 Result:
Sinn Féin Francie Molloy 19,935 48.7 −3.3
UUP Sandra Overend 6,318 15.4 +4.4
DUP Ian McCrea 5,465 13.4 -1.0
SDLP Malachy Quinn 5,055 12.4 −1.9
TUV Gareth Ferguson 1,892 4.6 −2.7
UKIP Alan Day8 863 2.1 +2.1
Alliance Eric Bullick 778 1.9 +0.9
Workers’ Party Hugh Scullion 496 1.2 +1.2
NI Conservatives Lucille Nicholson 120 0.3 +0.3
Majority 13,617 33.3 -4.3
Turnout 40,922 60.3 −2.9

Sitting MP: Francie Molloy (Sinn Fein)
Prediction: Sinn Fein hold

11. Newry & Armagh

Conor Murphy (Sinn Féin) 18,857 (42.0%, +0.6%)
Dominic Bradley (SDLP) 10,526 (23.4%, -1.8%)
Danny Kennedy (UCUNF) 8,558 (19.1%, +5.2)
William Irwin (DUP) 5,764 (12.8%, -5.6%)
William Frazer (Independent) 656 (1.5%)
Andrew Muir (Alliance) 545 (1.2%)
Majority: 8,331

2015 Result:
Sinn Féin Mickey Brady 20,488 41.1 −0.9
UUP Danny Kennedy5 16,312 32.7 +13.6
SDLP Justin McNulty 12,026 24.1 +0.7
Alliance Kate Nicholl 841 1.7 +0.5
NI Conservatives Robert Rigby 210 0.4 N/A
Majority 4,176 8.4 −10.2
Turnout 49,877 64.2 +3.8

Sitting MP: Mickey Brady (Sinn Fein)
Prediction: Sinn Fein hold

12. North Antrim

Ian Paisley [jr] (DUP) 19,672 (46.4%, -10.2%)
Jim Allister (TUV) 7,114 (16.8%)
Daithi McKay (Sinn Féin) 5,265 (12.4%, -1.8%)
Irwin Armstrong (UCUNF) 4,634 (10.9%, -4.1%)
Declan O’Loan (SDLP) 3,738 (8.8%, -2.2%)
Jayne Dunlop (Alliance) 1,368 (3.2%, +0.1%)
Lyle Cubitt (Independent) 606 (1.4%)
Majority: 12,558

2015 Result:
DUP Ian Richard Kyle Paisley Jr. 18,107 43.2 −3.2
TUV Timothy Gaston5 6,561 15.7 −1.1
Sinn Féin Daithí McKay 5,143 12.3 -0.1
UUP Robin Swann 5,054 12.1 +1.1
SDLP Declan O’Loan 2,925 7.0 -1.8
Alliance Jayne Dunlop 2,351 5.6 +2.4
UKIP Robert Hill 1,341 3.2 n/a
NI Conservatives Carol Freeman 368 0.9 n/a
Independent Thomas Palmer 57 0.1 n/a
Majority 11,546 27.6 -2.0
Turnout 41,907 55.2 -2.6

Sitting MP: Ian Paisley Jnr (DUP)
Prediction: DUP hold

13. North Down

*Sylvia Hermon (Independent) 21,181 (63.3%)
Ian Parsley (UCUNF) 6,817 (20.4%, -32.5%)
@Stephen Farry (Alliance) 1,876 (5.6%, -2.0%)
Mary Kilpatrick (TUV) 1,634 (4.9%)
Steven Agnew (Green) 1,043 (3.1%)
Liam Logan (SDLP) 680 (2.0%, -1.1%)
Vincent Parker (Sinn Féin) 250 (0.8%, +0.2%)
Majority: 14,364

2015 Result:
Independent Lady Hermon 17,689 49.2 −14.1
DUP Alex Easton 8,487 23.6 N/A
Alliance Andrew Muir 3,086 8.6 +3.0
Green (NI) Steven Agnew 1,958 5.4 +2.3
NI Conservatives Mark Brotherston 1,593 4.4 N/A
UKIP Jonny Lavery 1,482 4.1 N/A
TUV William Cudworth 686 1.9 −3.0
SDLP Tom Woolley 355 1.0 −1.0
CISTA Glenn Donnelly 338 0.9 N/A
Sinn Féin Therese McCartney 273 0.8 +0.1
Majority 9,202 25.6 -17.3
Turnout 35,947 56.0 +0.8

Sitting MP: Lady Sylvia Hermon (Ind)
Prediction: Independent hold

14. South Antrim

William McCrea (DUP) 11,536 (33.9%, -6.4%)
Reg Empey (UCUNF) 10,353 (30.4, +0.8%)
@Mitchel McLaughlin (Sinn Féin) 4,729 (13.9%, +3.2%)
Michelle Byrne (SDLP) 2,955 (8.7% -2.5%)
Alan Lawther (Alliance) 2,607 (7.7%, -0.6%)
Melwyn Lucas (TUV) 1,829 (5.4%)
Majority: 1,183

2015 Result:
UUP Danny Kinahan 11,942 32.7 +2.3
DUP William McCrea 10,993 30.1 −3.8
Sinn Féin Declan Kearney 4,699 12.9 -1.0
Alliance Neil Kelly 3,576 9.8 +2.1
SDLP Roisin Lynch 2,990 8.2 −0.5
TUV Rick Cairns 1,908 5.2 −0.2
NI Conservatives Alan Dunlop 415 1.1 N/A
Majority 949 2.6
Turnout 36,523 54.2 +0.3

Sitting MP: Danny Kinehan (UUP)
Prediction: UUP hold

A real marginal. Difficult to call but incumbency is always a factor.

15. South Down

Margaret Ritchie (SDLP) 20,648 (48.5%, +1.7%)
Caitriona Ruane (Sinn Féin) 12,236 (28.7%, +1.7%)
Jim Wells (DUP) 3,645 (8.6%, -7.5%)
John McCallister (UCUNF) 3,093 (7.3% -1.5%)
Ivor McConnell (TUV) 1,506 (3.5%)
Cadogan Enright (Green) 901 (2.1%)
David Griffin (Alliance) 560 (1.3%, ±0%)
Majority: 8,412

2015 Result:
SDLP Margaret Ritchie7 18,077 42.3 -6.1
Sinn Féin Chris Hazzard7 12,186 28.5 -0.2
UUP Harold McKee 3,964 9.3 +2.0
DUP Jim Wells 3,486 8.2 -0.4
UKIP Henry Reilly7 3,044 7.1 n/a
Alliance Martyn Todd7 1,622 3.8 +2.5
NI Conservatives Felicity Buchan 318 0.7 n/a
Majority 5,891 13.8 -6.0
Turnout 42,589 56.8 -3.4

Sitting MP: Margaret Ritchie (SDLP)
Prediction: SDLP hold

16. Strangford

Jim Shannon (DUP) 14,926 (45.9%, -4.9%)
Mike Nesbitt (UCUNF) 9,050 (27.8%,+2.6%)*
Deborah Girvan (Alliance) 2,828 (8.7%, +0.3%)
Claire Hanna (SDLP) 2,164 (6.7%, -1.5%)
Terry Williams (TUV) 1,814 (5.6%)
Michael Coogan (Sinn Féin) 1,161 (3.6%, -0.1%)
Barbara Haig (Green) 562 (1.7%)
Majority: 5,876

2015 Result:
DUP Jim Shannon 15,053 44.4 −1.5
UUP Robert Burgess 4,868 14.3 −13.5
Alliance Kellie Armstrong 4,687 13.8 +5.1
SDLP Joe Boyle 2,335 6.9 +0.2
UKIP Joe Jordan8 2,237 6.6 N/A
NI Conservatives Johnny Andrews9 2,167 6.4 N/A
TUV Stephen Cooper 1,701 5.0 −0.6
Sinn Féin Sheila Bailie 876 2.6 −1.0
Majority 10,185 30.0 +11.9
Turnout 33,924 52.8 −0.9

Sitting MP: Jim Shannon (DUP)
Prediction: DUP hold

17. Upper Bann

David Simpson (DUP) 14,000 (33.8%, -3.8%)
Harry Hamilton (UCUNF) 10,639 (25.7%, +0.2%)
John O’Dowd (Sinn Féin) 10,237 (24.7%, +3.7%)
Dolores Kelly (SDLP) 5,276 (12.7%, -0.2%)
Brendan Heading (Alliance) 1,231 (3.0%, +0.8%)
Majority: 3,361

2015 Result:
DUP David Simpson 15,430 32.7 −1.2
UUP Jo-Anne Dobson 13,166 27.9 +2.2
Sinn Féin Catherine Seeley 11,593 24.6 −0.2
SDLP Dolores Kelly 4,238 9.0 −3.8
Alliance Peter Lavery 1,780 3.8 +0.8
CISTA Martin Kelly 460 1.0 N/A
Workers’ Party Damien Harte 351 0.7 N/A
NI Conservatives Amandeep Singh Bhogal 201 0.4 N/A
Majority 2,264 4.8 −3.3
Turnout 47,219 59.0 3.7

Sitting MP: David Simpson (DUP)
Prediction: DUP hold

18. West Tyrone

Pat Doherty (Sinn Féin) 18,050 (48.4%, +9.5%)
Thomas Buchanan (DUP) 7,365 (19.8%, +2.0%)
Ross Hussey (UCUNF) 5,281 (14.2%, +7.3%)
Joe Byrne (SDLP) 5,212 (14.0%, +4.9%)
Michael Bower (Alliance) 859 (2.3%)
Ciaran McClean (Independent) 508 (1.4%)
Majority: 10,685

Sinn Féin Pat Doherty 16,807 43.5 −4.9
DUP Thomas Buchanan 6,747 17.5 −2.3
SDLP Daniel McCrossan 6,444 16.7 +2.7
UUP Ross Hussey 6,144 15.9 +1.7
Alliance Stephen Donnelly 869 2.2 −0.1
Green (NI) Ciaran McClean4 780 2.0 N/A
CISTA Barry Brown 5 528 1.4 N/A
NI Conservatives Claire-Louise Leyland 169 0.4 N/A
Independent Susan-Anne White 166 0.4 N/A
Majority 10,060 26.0 −2.7
Turnout 38,654 60.5 −0.5

Sitting MP: Pat Doherty (Sinn Fein)
Prediction: Sinn Fein hold

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE

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