General Election Predictions

General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 20. London South

28 Apr 2017 at 21:59

LONDON SOUTH

Seats: 9
Current Political Makeup: Con 2, Lab 6, LibDem 1
Predicted Political Makeup after June 8: Con 4, Lab 5

Camberwell & Peckham

2010 Result:
Conservative: 6080 (13%)
Labour: 27619 (59.2%)
Lib Dem: 10432 (22.4%)
Green: 1361 (2.9%)
English Dem: 435 (0.9%)
Independent: 93 (0.2%)
Others: 639 (1.4%)
MAJORITY: 17187 (36.8%)

2015 Result:
Labour Harriet Harman 32,614 63.3 +4.1
Conservative Naomi Newstead 6,790 13.2 +0.1
Green Amelia Womack 5,187 10.1 +7.1
Liberal Democrat Yahaya Kiyingi 2,580 5.0 −17.4
UKIP David Kurten 2,413 4.7 N/A
All People’s Party Prem Goyal 829 1.6 N/A
National Health Action Rebecca Fox 466 0.9 N/A
TUSC Nick Wrack 292 0.6 N/A
CISTA Alex Robertson 197 0.4 N/A
Workers Revolutionary Joshua Ogunleye 107 0.2 -0.3
Whig Felicity Anscomb 86 0.2 N/A
Majority 25,824 50.1 +11.3
Turnout 51,561 62.3 +3.0

Leave Vote: 31.48%

Sitting MP: Harriet Harman (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Carshalton & Wallington

2010 Result:
Conservative: 16920 (36.8%)
Labour: 4015 (8.7%)
Lib Dem: 22180 (48.3%)
BNP: 1100 (2.4%)
Green: 355 (0.8%)
UKIP: 1348 (2.9%)
MAJORITY: 5260 (11.5%)

2015 Result:
Liberal Democrat Tom Brake 16,603 34.9 −13.4
Conservative Matthew Maxwell-Scott 15,093 31.7 −5.1
Labour Siobhan Tate 7,150 15.0 +6.3
UKIP William Main-Ian 7,049 14.8 +11.9
Green Ross Hemingway 1,492 3.2 +2.4
Christian Peoples Ashley Dickenson 177 0.4 +0.4
National Front Richard Edmonds 49 0.1 +0.1
Majority 1,510 3.2 −8.3
Turnout 47,613 68.0 −1.0

Leave Vote: 56.26%

Sitting MP: Tom Brake (LibDem)
Prediction: Conservative gain

Somewhat charismatically challenged, Brake is nevertheless a very good constituency MP and this could seem him through, but there is a big vote for the Conservatives to eat into. Brake’s best hope is that the Greens don’t stand and Labour seeps votes to him.

Croydon Central

2010 Result:
Conservative: 19657 (39.4%)
Labour: 16688 (33.6%)
Lib Dem: 6553 (13.2%)
BNP: 1448 (2.9%)
Green: 581 (1.2%)
UKIP: 997 (2%)
Christian: 264 (0.5%)
Independent: 3239 (6.5%)
Others: 330 (0.7%)
MAJORITY: 2879 (5.8%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Gavin Barwell 22,753 43.0 +3.6
Labour Sarah Jones 22,588 42.7 +9.1
UKIP Peter Staveley 4,810 9.1 +7.1
Green Esther Sutton7 1,454 2.7 +1.6
Liberal Democrat James Fearnley 1,152 2.2 −11.0
TUSC April Ashley 127 0.2 N/A
Progressive Democracy Martin Camden 57 0.1 N/A
Majority 165 0.3 -5.91
Turnout 52,941 67.7 +2.2

Leave Vote: 48.73%

Sitting MP: Gavin Barwell (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Incumbency could be key here. Locally born and an assiduous MP, Barwell will be difficult to shift after 7 years.

Croydon North

2010 Result:
Conservative: 12466 (24.1%)
Labour: 28949 (56%)
Lib Dem: 7226 (14%)
Green: 1017 (2%)
UKIP: 891 (1.7%)
Respect: 272 (0.5%)
Christian: 586 (1.1%)
Independent: 111 (0.2%)
Others: 160 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 16481 (31.9%)

BY-ELECTION 2012
Steve Reed (Labour) 15898 64.7% (8.7%)
Andrew Stranack (Conservative) 4137 16.8% (-7.3%)
Winston McKenzie (UKIP) 1400 5.7% (
4%)
Marisha Ray (Liberal Democrat) 860 3.5% (-10.5%)
Shasha Khan (Green) 855 3.5% (1.5%)
Lee Jasper (Respect) 707 2.9% (
2.4%)
Stephen Hammond (Christian Peoples) 192 0.8% (n/a)
Richard Edmonds (National Front) 161 0.7% (n/a)
Ben Stevenson (Communist) 119 0.5% (+0.2%)
John Cartwright (Loony) 110 0.4% (n/a)
Simon Lane (911 was an inside job) 66 0.3% (n/a)
Robin Smith (Young Peoples) 63 0.3% (n/a)
MAJORITY 11755 47.9%
Turnout 26.5% (-34.1%)

2015 Result:
Labour Co-op Steve Reed 33,513 62.6 +6.6
Conservative Vidhi Mohan 12,149 22.7 -1.4
UKIP Winston McKenzie 2,899 5.4 +3.7
Green Shasha Khan 2,515 4.7 +2.7
Liberal Democrat Joanna Corbin 1,919 3.6 -10.4
TUSC Glen Hart 261 0.5 +0.5
Independent Lee Berks 141 0.3 +0.3
Communist Ben Stevenson 125 0.2 -0.1
Majority 21,364 39.9 -8
Turnout 53,522 62.3 +35.77

Leave Vote: 43.27%

Sitting MP: Steve Reed (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Croydon South

2010 Result:
Conservative: 28684 (50.9%)
Labour: 11287 (20%)
Lib Dem: 12866 (22.8%)
Green: 981 (1.7%)
UKIP: 2504 (4.4%)
MAJORITY: 15818 (28.1%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Chris Philp 31,448 54.5 +3.6
Labour Emily Benn 14,308 24.8 +4.8
UKIP Kathleen Garner 6,068 10.5 +6.1
Liberal Democrat Gill Hickson 3,448 6.0 -16.9
Green Peter Underwood 2,154 3.7 +2.0
Putting Croydon First! Mark Samuel 221 0.4 N/A
Class War Jon Bigger8 65 0.1 N/A
Majority 17,410 29.7 +1.6
Turnout 57,712 70.4 +1.1

Leave Vote: 45.31%

Sitting MP: Chris Philp (Con)
Prediction: Conservatuve hold

Dulwich & West Norwood

2010 Result:
Conservative: 10684 (22.2%)
Labour: 22461 (46.6%)
Lib Dem: 13096 (27.2%)
Green: 1266 (2.6%)
UKIP: 707 (1.5%)
MAJORITY: 9365 (19.4%)

2015 Result:
Labour Helen Hayes 27,772 54.1 +7.5
Conservative Resham Kotecha 11,650 22.7 +0.5
Liberal Democrat James Barber 5,055 9.8 -17.3
Green Rashid Nix 4,844 9.4 +6.8
UKIP Rathy Alagaratnam 1,606 3.1 +1.7
TUSC Steve Nally 248 0.5 N/A
Independent Robin Lambert 125 0.2 N/A
All People’s Party Amadu Kanumansa 62 0.1 N/A
Majority 16,122 31.4 +12.0
Turnout 51,362 67.1 +0.9

Leave Vote: 22.94%

Sitting MP: Helen Hayes (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Streatham

2010 Result:
Conservative: 8578 (18.3%)
Labour: 20037 (42.8%)
Lib Dem: 16778 (35.8%)
Green: 861 (1.8%)
English Dem: 229 (0.5%)
Christian: 237 (0.5%)
Others: 117 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 3259 (7%)

2015 Result:
Labour Chuka Umunna 26,474 53.0 +10.2
Conservative Kim Caddy 12,540 25.1 +6.8
Liberal Democrat Amna Ahmad 4,491 9.0 −26.8
Green Jonathan Bartley 4,421 8.9 +7.1
UKIP Bruce Machan 1,602 3.2 N/A
CISTA Artificial Beast 192 0.4 N/A
TUSC Unjum Mirza 164 0.3 N/A
Workers Revolutionary Deon Gayle 49 0.1 −0.2
Majority 13,934 27.9 +20.9
Turnout 49,933 63.1 +0.3

Leave Vote: 22.16%

Sitting MP: Chuka Umunna (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Tooting

2010 Result:
Conservative: 19514 (38.5%)
Labour: 22038 (43.5%)
Lib Dem: 7509 (14.8%)
Green: 609 (1.2%)
UKIP: 624 (1.2%)
Christian: 171 (0.3%)
Independent: 190 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 2524 (5%)

2015 Result:
Labour Sadiq Khan 25,263 47.2 +3.7
Conservative Dan Watkins 22,421 41.9 +3.4
Green Esther Obiri-Darko 2,201 4.1 +2.9
Liberal Democrat Philip Ling9 2,107 3.9 −10.9
UKIP Przemek Skwirczyński 1,537 2.9 +1.6
Majority 2,842 5.3 +0.3
Turnout 53,529 69.7 +1.1

2016 ByElection Result:
Labour Rosena Allin-Khan 17,894 55.9 +8.7
Conservative Dan Watkins 11,537 36.1 −5.8
Green Esther Obiri-Darko 830 2.6 −1.5
Liberal Democrat Alex Glassbrook 820 2.6 −1.3
UKIP Elizabeth Jones 507 1.6 −1.3
Christian Peoples Des Coke 164 0.5 +0.5
Monster Raving Loony Howling Laud Hope 54 0.2 +0.2
Independent Zirwa Javaid 30 0.1 +0.1
One Love Ankit Love 32 0.1 +0.1
Immigrants Political Party Akbar Ali Malik 44 0.1 +0.1
English Democrat Graham Moore 50 0.2 +0.2
Independent Zia Samadani 23 0.1 +0.1
Independent Smiley Smillie 5 0.0 +0.0
Give Me Back Elmo Bobby Smith 9 0.0 +0.0
Majority 6,357 19.9 +14.6
Turnout 31,763 42.5 −27.2

Leave Vote: 25.58%

Sitting MP: Rosena Allin-Khan (Lab)
Prediction: Conservative gain

This is one of those seats which the Conservatives have coveted for the last two elections. This time they may well get it.

Vauxhall

2010 Result:
Conservative: 9301 (21.5%)
Labour: 21498 (49.8%)
Lib Dem: 10847 (25.1%)
Green: 708 (1.6%)
English Dem: 289 (0.7%)
Christian: 200 (0.5%)
Others: 348 (0.8%)
MAJORITY: 10651 (24.7%)

2015 Result:
Labour Kate Hoey 25,778 53.8 +4.0
Conservative James Bellis 13,070 27.3 +5.7
Green Gulnar Hasnain 3,658 7.6 +6.0
Liberal Democrat Adrian Hyyrylainen-Trett 3,312 6.9 -18.2
UKIP Ace Nnorom 1,385 2.9 N/A
Pirate Mark Chapman 201 0.4 N/A
Left Unity Simon Hardy 188 0.4 N/A
CISTA Louis Jensen 164 0.3 N/A
Whig Waleed Ghani 103 0.2 N/A
Socialist (GB) Daniel Lambert 82 0.2 -0.2
Majority 12,708 26.5 +1.8
Turnout 47,941 58.3 +0.6

Leave Vote: 18.47%

Sitting MP: Kate Hoey (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE

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