General Election Predictions

General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 21. West Glamorgan

29 Apr 2017 at 14:10

WEST GLAMORGAN

Seats: 5
Current Political Makeup: Con 1, Lab 4
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 1, Lab 4

1. Aberavon

2010 Result:
Conservative: 4411 (14.2%)
Labour: 16073 (51.9%)
Lib Dem: 5034 (16.3%)
Plaid Cymru: 2198 (7.1%)
BNP: 1276 (4.1%)
UKIP: 489 (1.6%)
Independent: 919 (3%)
Others: 558 (1.8%)
MAJORITY: 11039 (35.7%)

2015 Result:
Labour Stephen Kinnock 15,416 48.9 −3.0
UKIP Peter Bush 4,971 15.8 +14.2
Conservative Edward Yi He 3,742 11.9 −2.4
Plaid Cymru Duncan Higgitt 3,663 11.6 +4.5
Liberal Democrats Helen Clarke 1,397 4.4 −11.8
Independent Captain Beany 1,137 3.6 +1.8
Green Jonathan Tier 711 2.3 n/a
Socialist Labour Andrew Jordan 352 1.1 n/a
TUSC Owen Herbert 134 0.4 n/a
Majority 10,445 33.1 −2.6
Turnout 31,523 63.3 +2.3

Sitting MP: Stephen Kinnock (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

2. Gower

2010 Result:
Conservative: 13333 (32%)
Labour: 16016 (38.4%)
Lib Dem: 7947 (19.1%)
Plaid Cymru: 2760 (6.6%)
BNP: 963 (2.3%)
UKIP: 652 (1.6%)
MAJORITY: 2683 (6.4%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Byron Davies 15,862 37.1 +5.1
Labour Liz Evans 15,835 37.0 -1.4
UKIP Colin Beckett 4,773 11.2 +9.6
Plaid Cymru Darren Thomas 3,051 7.1 +0.5
Liberal Democrat Mike Sheehan 1,552 3.6 −15.4
Green Julia Marshall 1,161 2.7 N/A
Monster Raving Loony Baron Barnes Von Claptrap 253 0.6 N/A
Independent Steve Roberts 168 0.4 N/A
TUSC Mark Evans 103 0.2 N/A
Majority 27 0.1
Turnout 42,758 69.2 +1.7

Sitting MP: Byron Davies (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

A surprise Tory gain in 2015 it’s difficult to see Labour winning it back given the current state of the polls in Wales.

3. Neath

2010 Result:
Conservative: 4847 (13.1%)
Labour: 17172 (46.3%)
Lib Dem: 5535 (14.9%)
Plaid Cymru: 7397 (19.9%)
BNP: 1342 (3.6%)
UKIP: 829 (2.2%)
MAJORITY: 9775 (26.3%)

2015 Result:
Labour Christina Rees 16,270 43.8 −2.4
Plaid Cymru Daniel Thomas 6,722 18.1 −1.8
UKIP Richard Pritchard 6,094 16.4 +14.2
Conservative Ed Hastie 5,691 15.3 +2.3
Green Catrin Brock 1,185 3.2 N/A
Liberal Democrat Clare Bentley 1,173 3.2 −11.8
Majority 9,548 25.7 −0.6
Turnout 37,135 66.2 +1.3

Sitting MP: Christina Rees (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

4. Swansea East

2010 Result:
Conservative: 4823 (14.8%)
Labour: 16819 (51.5%)
Lib Dem: 5981 (18.3%)
Plaid Cymru: 2181 (6.7%)
BNP: 1715 (5.2%)
Green: 318 (1%)
UKIP: 839 (2.6%)
MAJORITY: 10838 (33.2%)

2015 Result:
Labour Carolyn Harris 17,807 53.0 +1.5
UKIP Clifford Johnson 5,779 17.2 +14.6
Conservative Altaf Hussain 5,142 15.3 +0.5
Plaid Cymru Dic Jones 3,498 10.4 +3.7
Liberal Democrat Amina Jamal 1,392 4.1 −14.2
Majority 12,028 35.8 +2.6
Turnout 33,618 58.0 +3.4

Sitting MP: Carolyn Harris (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

5. Swansea West

2010 Result:
Conservative: 7407 (20.8%)
Labour: 12335 (34.7%)
Lib Dem: 11831 (33.2%)
Plaid Cymru: 1437 (4%)
BNP: 910 (2.6%)
Green: 404 (1.1%)
UKIP: 716 (2%)
TUSC: 179 (0.5%)
Independent: 374 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 504 (1.4%

2015 Result:
Labour Co-op Geraint Davies 1 14,967 42.6 +7.9
Conservative Emma Lane 7,931 22.6 +1.7
UKIP Martyn Ford 4,744 13.5 +11.5
Liberal Democrat Chris Holley 3,178 9.0 -24.2
Plaid Cymru Harri Roberts 2,266 6.4 +2.4
Green Ashley Wakeling 1,784 5.1 +4.0
TUSC Ronnie Job6 159 0.5 -0.1
Independent Maxwell Rosser 78 0.2 n/a
Socialist (GB) Brian Johnson 7 49 0.1 n/a
Majority 7,036 20.0 +18.6
Turnout 35,156 59.8 +1.8

Sitting MP: Geraint Davies (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

The LibDems came within a whisker of winning this seat in 2010 but it’s now the Conservatives who might well think they might have a chance. A very outside one, though.

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE

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